Before I get into my annual nerdy number-crunching from the NFL Draft, you’ll have to forgive me for climbing on top of one of my favorite soap boxes.
This can’t wait.
Here goes … the Big 12 is soooooo weak.
One of the things that was impossible to not notice over the course of a three-day window on Thursday night was just how little respect the NFL has for the players in the Big 12.
Consider the following ...
* The conference's Doak Walker Award winning running back was the No. 97 pick of the draft and went in the third round.
* Two of the best skill position players in the history of the Oklahoma program (Sam Perine and Dede Westbrook) didn’t get drafted until day three.
* Only one damn defensive player in the Big 12 was drafted in the first five rounds/in the first 192 picks of the draft. ONE!!!
* No Big 12 offensive linemen were drafted in the first 243 picks in the draft. Baylor’s Kyle Fuller saved the league from being shut out by being the only lineman drafted at pick No. 244 in the seventh round.
* Forty-three percent (6 of 14) of the players drafted from the Big 12 went in the final two rounds.
* Oklahoma was the only school in the conference to have more than two players drafted.
When those of us with really loud mouths scream bloody murder about the conference suffocating from a lack of natural resources in the talent bed department, these are the type of results that we’re constantly warning about.
My sense in talking to Texas decision-makers over the course of this decade has always been that the financial advantages, along with the competitive advantages that exist in theory if the Longhorns can ever get good again, make the conference an attractive place for those that don’t want to be remembered in history as someone that helped change college athletics forever by pushing the school out of the league for a more attractive collection of partners.
The Big 12 is comfort for those that are apprehensive about the unknown.
While I understand where those seeking comfort are coming from, even in the best of times, no one wants to build a mansion in a trailer park and that’s exactly the position in which Texas finds itself. Overall, only 14 players (two per round or one every 18 picks) from the conference were selected in the draft, the lowest in the history of the Big 12, breaking the previous low of 17 from three years ago.
Nothing about this is an accident. This is the present and there’s very little reason to believe that the future will be any different outside of whatever Texas and Oklahoma can create from year to year.
It’s just so uninspiring.
Ok, I’ll get off my soapbox and move on to other things, but allow me to say one more word about the conference before moving on.
Yuck.
No. 2 – Nerdy Draft Stuff ...
In an effort to hold on to some of you that might get lost in the numbers crunching, I’m going to do my best to keep this from getting too numbery (did I just make up a word?).
A few things that need to be established.
1. There are currently 128 FBS programs playing college football in 2017, which means there are 10,880 scholarship players in college football if every school has maxed out its 85-man scholarship limit.
2. From 2012-2014 (the three classes that almost exclusively made up the 2017 NFL Draft Class), Rivals.com rated on the average 3,803 players per year (including JUCO and prep schools), with the average star distribution breakdown looking like this:
Five stars (6.1): 33.67
Four stars (6.0): 42.67
Four stars (5.9): 69.67
Four stars (5.8): 218.33
Three stars (5.7) 302.67
Three stars (5.6) 411.00
Three stars (5.5) 617.33
Two stars (5.4) 889.00
Two stars (5.3) 593.67
Two stars (5.2) 619.00
With those numbers serving as the foundation of the average Rivals.com recruiting class numbers over a three-year window, let's break down what the numbers look like over the course of all seven rounds of the NFL Draft this year, beginning with a look at the numbers in the first round:
Five stars (6.1): 10
Four stars (6.0): 3
Four stars (5.9): 3
Four stars (5.8): 3
Three stars (5.7) 4
Three stars (5.6) 5
Three stars (5.5) 1
Two stars (5.4) 0
Two stars (5.3) 1
Two stars (5.2) 0
Two stars (5.1) 0
Unranked: 2
Here's what that translates to when you crunch the numbers:
a. 30.30-percent of five-star (6.1) prospects were drafted in the first round.
b. 7.03-percent of high-four star (6.0) prospects were drafted in the first round.
c. 4.30-percent of mid-four star (5.9) prospects were drafted in the first round.
d. 1.37-percent of low-four star (5.8) prospects were drafted in the first round.
e. 1.32-percent of high-three star (5.7) prospects were drafted in the first round.
f. 1.22-percent of mid-three star (5.6) prospects were drafted in the first round.
g. 1.37-percent of low-three star (5.5) prospects were drafted in the first round.
h. 0.00-percent of high-two star (5.4) prospects were drafted in the first round.
i. 0.17-percent of mid-two star (5.3) prospects were drafted in the first round.
j. 0.00-percent of low-two star (5.2) prospects were drafted in the first round.
The thing that just jumps out you is the incredible prominence of five-stars in the first round, as nearly a third of all players drafted were among the top 0.85-percent of all players that are ranked in the Rivals rankings.
Translation: 31.35 percent of the first-round pie was comprised of the top 0.85-percent of all players ranked by Rivals.
By five country miles, it represents the highest volume of five-star prospects going in the first round of the draft in the history of the Rivals rankings.
Now let’s take a look at the top three rounds.
Five stars (6.1): 20
Four stars (6.0): 9
Four stars (5.9): 9
Four stars (5.8): 13
Three stars (5.7) 12
Three stars (5.6) 14
Three stars (5.5) 8
Two stars (5.4) 8
Two stars (5.3) 1
Two stars (5.2) 5
Unranked: 9
Here's what that translates to when you crunch the numbers:
a. 59.40-percent of five-star (6.1) prospects were drafted in the first three rounds.
b. 21.10-percent of high-four star (6.0) prospects were drafted in the first three rounds.
c. 12.92-percent of mid-four star (5.9) prospects were drafted in the first round.
d. 5.96-percent of low-four star (5.8) prospects were drafted in the first three rounds.
e. 3.97-percent of high-three star (5.7) prospects were drafted in the first three rounds.
f. 3.41-percent of mid-three star (5.6) prospects were drafted in the first three rounds.
g. 1.30-percent of low-three star (5.5) prospects were drafted in the first three rounds.
h. 0.90-percent of high-two star (5.4) prospects were drafted in the first three rounds.
i. 0.17-percent of mid-two star (5.3) prospects were drafted in the first three rounds.
j. 0.81-percent of low-two star (5.6) prospects were drafted in the first three rounds
Now let’s take a look at all seven rounds.
Five stars (6.1): 28
Four stars (6.0): 13
Four stars (5.9): 11
Four stars (5.8): 35
Three stars (5.7) 26
Three stars (5.6) 28
Three stars (5.5) 27
Two stars (5.4) 15
Two stars (5.3) 8
Two stars (5.2) 8
Unranked: 34
Here's what the translates to when you crunch the numbers:
a. 83.16-percent of five-star (6.1) prospects were drafted in one of the seven rounds.
b. 30.47-percent of high-four star (6.0) prospects were drafted in one of the seven rounds.
c. 15.79-percent of mid-four star (5.9) prospects were drafted in one of the seven rounds.
d. 16.03-percent of low-four star (5.8) prospects were drafted in one of the seven rounds.
e. 8.59-percent of high-three star (5.7) prospects were drafted in one of the seven rounds.
f. 6.57-percent of mid-three star (5.6) prospects were drafted in one of the seven rounds.
g. 4.37-percent of low-three star (5.5) prospects were drafted in one of the seven rounds.
h. 1.69-percent of high-two star (5.4) prospects were drafted in one of the seven rounds.
i. 1.35-percent of mid-two star (5.3) prospects were drafted in one of the seven rounds.
j. 1.29-percent of low-two star (5.6) prospects were drafted in one of the seven rounds.
No. 3 – The Big Takeaways ...
After nearly a decade of crunching recruiting rankings within the NFL Draft, here are the two themes that prove to be true each year and nothing changed this year.
First, in terms of producing the highest of the high-end talent in the draft (first round), five-star prospects generate at first round rates that are 10-15 times the rate of four stars, 30-40 times the rate of three stars and 80-150 times the rate of two stars.
The margins when you get into the different variations of the star rankings will differ slightly from year to year, but typically the rates double or triple every time you drop between one star to the next.
Second, in terms of producing talent over the course of all seven rounds, five-star prospects generate at 4-5 times the rate of four stars, 15-20 times the rate of three stars and 40-60 times the rate of two stars.
Again, the margins within very specific variations of each star ranking might differ slightly from year to year, but you can safely triple or quadruple the rates every time you drop from one level of star ranking down to the next one when talking about drafted players.
It’s getting to the point that I can set my watch by the results, even if the five-star category performed at a historic level, which it did.
No. 4 – D’Onta’s decision proves to be the right one …
All along, I’ve felt like D’Onta Foreman needed to be drafted in one of the first three rounds to strongly justify his decision to turn pro and when the Houston Texans scooped him up in the third round on Friday night, it was hard to imagine the decision working out better, with all due respect to the added cash that he would have netted if drafted earlier.
From Texas City to the University of Texas to the Houston Texans, you can just feel the symmetry.
On top of that, it’s probably a perfect spot for him to fall from a depth chart standpoint. While Lamar Miller is a decent No. 1 for the Texans, he averaged a career-low 4.0 yards per carry last season and could use someone to share the workload.
His primary competition for that role is Alfred Blue, who is a former sixth-round pick and the definition of a JAG in the NFL.
It shouldn’t take Foreman more than 15 minutes in training camp to take Blue’s spot, which should create a very nice year one role for the Doak Walker Award winner.
This isn’t a stop the presses prediction, but I fully expect Foreman to be the starting tailback in 2018.
No. 5 – Buy or sell …
BUY or SELL: Texas has 8 or more players drafted in a single draft within the next 5 drafts?
(Buy) If you’d set the number at 7.5, I’d take the over, but if you set it at 8.5, I’d take the under.
BUY or SELL: The 2016 and 2107 NFL drafts are proof positive that nothing can be as devastatingly ineffective as the combination of Mack Brown recruiting and Charlie Strong coaching?
(Buy)
BUY or SELL: Texas has more than 20 players drafted over the next 5 drafts, starting with the 2018 draft. Some of those kids aren't even on campus, but the development they receive and the evaluation ability of this staff is a huge improvement over the last seven seasons?
(Buy) I feel like someone hooked up the Kool-Aid Off-season Drip in an IV to my arm.
BUY or SELL: Holton Hill has the type of season that could have him in "Day 2" draft consideration in 2018?
(Buy) Yup, I’m hooked up to the drip.
BUY or SELL: Charlie's guys have fully bought into Herman by now?
(Buy) No one is ever going to bat 1.000 on this type of deal, but I have to believe Tom is in the 90s.
BUY or SELL: Malik Zaire saying he'll announce after ND graduation (before SEC spring meetings) means that Anwar is underestimating the chances of Zaire to Texas?
(Sell) I don’t feel like Anwar or anyone on the staff is underestimating the chances. In fact, he was pretty vocal in expressing that he challenged his source from the Zaire camp on the sincerity of the interest and they gave strong indications that the interest was very serious. Tom Herman and Tim Beck are not to be underestimated.
BUY or SELL: Three or more different RBs start games this season because of injuries or otherwise?
(Buy) A whole lot of injuries and otherwise.
BUY or SELL: Andrew Jones comes back for his sophomore season?
(Sell) I just don’t have a positive vibe on his return.
BUY or SELL: The Cowboys defense will be better than last year's unit?
(Buy) If you’re giving the field or the bottom three in a bunch of important categories, I’ll take the field. It can’t be much worse than a season ago.
BUY or SELL: The Anwar Richardson Texas curse is real?
(Sell) I reserve the right to change my mind. One more season of sub-.500 play and I’m going to be of the opinion that there are no accidents in life, which means he’s a witch and we all need to be very careful about our next steps.
No. 6 – Texas Baseball weekend in a gif …
Yes, I like Grease 2. Don’t judge me.
No. 7 – The Houston Texans just became must-see-TV ...
I’ve been hard on Rick Smith over the years, but I love what the Texans did in the draft.
In drafting Deshaun Watson, I believe the Texans have finally found their quarterback of the future and the kind of guy that should make Texans fans feel really excited about the future.
Although the fan base hasn’t suffered like the Browns have suffered at the position, when all you have to champion in the entire franchise’s history is the best of Matt Schaub, you’ve never truly known the taste of elite quarterback play.
That means the Texans are essentially the 40-year old virgin of the NFL. Maybe the team has been to second or third base a time or two (maybe second base once), but you can't be taken seriously when your franchise history looks like this.
With the selection of Watson (and D’Onta Foreman), I think Texans fans can put down their tubas because for the first time, I think the franchise has a real chance to emerge as the kind of team its fans have dreamed of.
The next couple of years should be fun.
No. 8 – Cue up the Ashford and Simpson ...
Perhaps there weren’t a lot of whistles and bells in the 2017 Dallas Cowboys draft class, but there were a few things that stood out to me about what the team did over three days.
* It didn’t get cute. Jerry likes a razzle dazzle whenever he can get a razzle dazzle, but the team seemed to play things out of a safe playbook, which is comforting because the Cowboys often make poor decisions when they look to create a razzle dazzle.
* Very few risks. Usually, the team will take a flyer on some great-testing small school player and more times than not, the team regrets it. This year, seven of the eight selections were from power conference schools and the eighth player was from Louisiana Tech. There wasn’t some dude from William and Mary that no one has ever heard of in the entire bunch.
* Addressed needs. Four defensive backs, three defensive linemen and two wide receivers.
* Zero reaches. It’s rare when I say this (if I’ve ever said it), but it seemed like the Cowboys got good value in every round.
While I’m a little worried that Taco Charlton is a cross between Shante Carver and a semi-stable Alonzo Spellman, I think the Cowboys got a half-dozen guys that can help the team this year, especially on defense.
No. 9 – Eternal Randomness of the Spotty Sports Mind …
Other thoughts on the NFL Draft …
a. I think it must suck to be a Bears fan right now.
b. I think Mike Williams in San Diego, Christian McCaffrey in Carolina and John Ross in Cincinnati are all going to be monsters.
c. Jameis Winston is going to love playing with fellow Alabaman O.J. Howard. Man, Winston has some weapons to throw to.
d. Of the nine Texans taken in first three rounds, seven were rated high-three stars or greater. The two anomalies were D’Onta Foreman and Zay Jones.
e. What is in K.D. Cannon’s past that kept him from being drafted?
f. The Ravens got a steal in Tyus Bowser. I could see him playing there for the next 10 years.
g. Former Carolina Panthers GM Marty Hurney told me last year that he thought Brad Kaaya was a special player that would eventually be a franchise NFL quarterback. He was selected late in the sixth round on Saturday.
h. I kind of feel like Aaron Rodgers is going to bring the best out of seventh-round pick Malachi Dupree.
i. Rivals rankings of the first 10 tight ends drafted this week: 6.1, 5.6, 5.6, unranked, unranked, 5.2, 5.5, 5.9, 5.5 and unranked.
… I have a feeling Washington/Boston is going to be a hell of a lot of fun in the NBA playoffs.
… The Clippers are done. Break’em up.
… Give me the Spurs over the Rockets in seven. This series is a big test for Kawhi.
… Kevin Durant is the Vegas money favorite for Finals MVP.
… P.J. Tucker will be a household name by the end of this week. I have a feeling he’s drawing nightly duty on Lebron and I think he’s going to prove to be a pest.
… Anthony Renden’s three homers and 10 RBI on Sunday had to have made McComas feel warm all over.
… I’m not sure if Chelsea is a special team, but it is having a special season. Every time the moment has called for it all season, the Blues have displayed a spine of steel.
… Good for Tottenham.
… Come on Klopp, the doorway is open. Get these boys to finish strong, starting today.
No. 10 – And finally…
Texas quarterback commit Casey Thompson had a few things to say on Twitter this weekend about his commit. Kind of thought it deserved its own section.
And then there was this, which Thompson retweeted.
