I think based on measurables and base if he plays to the level of Koburn or Ojomo who will be drafted this weekend. I didn't say 1st rounder like people thought after his Colorado performance. But I can see him getting drafted 6th 7th round.
Ketch's 10 Thoughts From The Weekend (The bottom of the roster...)
- Thread starter Ketchum
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I think most simply want that more than it is in reality. It didn’t happen in his contract so why will it this season?
Something to aspire to. 😁
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Thanks for the great write-up, @Ketchum .
I especially loved the Taylor Swift list. I will admit, when she first appeared on the scene, I dismissed her as a teen-age fad with no real talent. Kind of like my dad did with the Beatles. But, my HS age (at that time) daughters made me listen.
Over a decade later, I agree, she is a special talent. I love most of her music. Generational talent.
I especially loved the Taylor Swift list. I will admit, when she first appeared on the scene, I dismissed her as a teen-age fad with no real talent. Kind of like my dad did with the Beatles. But, my HS age (at that time) daughters made me listen.
Over a decade later, I agree, she is a special talent. I love most of her music. Generational talent.
I remember we had a DT, named Gordon I believe, who as a senior came from the scrap heap to being a solid contributor on the 2001 team. So, it can happen. It just doesn't happen that often.
people said the same thing about DMO and Koburn thats why they came back but now they will be drafted. Ojomo wasn't on the draft radar heading into last fall and he will drafted.
I’m not a Taylor Swift fan. Nor a hater. I do know in my lifetime I’ve known ONE other female solo artist able to pull off demand for a stadium tour. Madonna.
He’s one of the best special teams players on the team, he’s a situational STARTER. He doesn’t belong in the “bottom of the roster” conversation. I recognize you went off of 2-deep, I’m telling you that’s an incorrect barometer at least for Keilan. Remind me who the staff force fed in the bowl game? The guy will make an NFL roster and be a career situational / utility + ST guy. Sign me up for the that bottom dweller tag lol.
As for Collins/Broughton, again I just disagree and see the rotation at DL playing out very differently than you do and historical snap distribution on the interior tells us that.
My projected DL 2-deep:
SDE - Sorrell / Collins
NT - Sweat / Carter
DT - Murphy / Broughton
WDE - Burke / Finkley OR Tapp
1.) I think Carter was brought in to allow Collins to bump outside and shore up the DE rotation. I think that gives that staff the flexibility to go with a heavy 4-DL look w/ Sorrel bumping to WDE. At 6’-6”Alfred has a long frame and he Carrie’s his weight really well; IMO he’s always been better suited to play outside. He got Alex Okafor’d IMO.
2.) In 2022, through the KU game (@Alex Dunlap has taken the Baylor DD charts down), the interior DL rotation / snap distribution went like this:
Sweat = 367 (22%)
Coburn (GONE) = 337 (20%)
Murphy = 296 (17%)
Ojomo (GONE) = 279 (16%)
Broughton = 210 (12%)
Collins = 195 (11%)
Bryant + Ross = 22 (1%)
Broughton was already 5th in line for snaps, 2 guys left, 1 new guy came in. I still see him in the top 4 interior DL guys in the rotation which means he’s going to get a 15-16% snap share… that’s the difference between playing 33 snaps per game (Sweat ‘22) vs 25 (4th DT Ojomo ‘22). C’mon man!
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Gordon was on the scrap because he was a 6’1” 250 lb DT trying to compete against behemoth talents like Rogers and Hampton prior to ‘01. Collins is a guy with an NFL body with a low motor.
some good stuff here, except I think Collins plays mostly as the second DT rather than the second Jack, although I think he gets snaps there.
I also went back and found the deep dig charts but for some reason my percentages are different than yours.
I saw the following for 2022:
- Sweat (45%) and Ojomo (35%) as the primary DT's
- Coburn (43%) and Murphy (37%) as the primary NT's
- Broughton and Collins both played around 25% of the snaps at both Jack and DT.
For 2023 I would predict:
- Sweat (45%) and Collins (35%) as the primary DT's
- Murphy (45%) and Carter (35%) as the primary NT's
- Broughton and Bledsoe both play around 25% of the snaps at both Jack and DT.
Carter's biggest impact is that barring injury, Texas doesn't need to rely upon guys like Bryant and Mitchell who will be good eventually but aren't quite ready for primetime yet.
Because unlike last season, there are reports that he made significant efforts during the winter s&c and followed it up with his best spring since he's been in the program.
We definitely need a DT and TE for next year but it's hard to be worried with the transfer portal. There will be another Bear at DT, and there will be an impact TE like the one FSU or Arkansas got that wants to play on a big stage. I don't think the staff wants to count or rely on it but I do expect something to come from it because the opening will look too good.
Carter isn't a NT. That's not where he would remotely be at his best.
I wish I had a dollar for every time we've heard such a thing about players.
Yo’re assuming he stays healthy the entire season. And by playoff level that could mean as little as 7 or 8 wins. I’m paying what it would take to just get me to that level. The Texans need quite a bit. He alone isn’t near enough. And by the time they put the necessary pieces with him he’ll only be staying healthy for 8 games a season. Hard pass.
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I think he, Sweat and Murphy will be rotating a lot, and I still wouldn't be shocked to see Collins get some time at End in bigger packages.
I think you'll see Murphy, Bryant and Mitchell splitting the majority of the NT reps. Sweat, Carter, Collins and Broughton will split the DT reps. Collins can play a little SDE, while Carter could play a few reps at NT.
