T-minus four days.
Depending on when you read this column, we'll be somewhere around 80-90 hours until the initial commitment announcement moment for Duncanville five-star edge rusher Colin Simmons.
I say "initial" out of transparent acknowledgment that his recruitment isn't going to be over on August 10, regardless of the decision he makes. Everyone involved believes there's a likelihood that he might visit both LSU and Texas during the season and that the seasons that both schools have could impact his thoughts closer to National Signing Day.
This will be a November/December recruitment ... either way.
Still, a decision will be announced on Thursday and it'll either feel like the end of the world or the scene outside of a Barbie movie depending on what happens.
Let's walk through the timeline of this decision and check out a pros/cons list for his top two schools (sorry Miami, not sure why you are here).
September 10th, 2022: On the day that Texas hosted Alabama, Simmons opted to instead visit LSU play Southern in what amounted to a 65-17 win for the Tigers. It was a strong indication of LSU's positioning in the recruitment.
“What’s not to like about LSU? It feels like Texas, just smaller. The diversity is great out there,” Simmons told Orangebloods. “The people there, they just feel so welcoming. I love LSU.”
November 12th, 2022: For much of 2022, it really felt like LSU was the clear leader for Simmons, but his unofficial visit to Texas for the TCU game last year really opened the door for the Longhorns based on the impression made on Simmons.
"The way they were using their linebackers and edges -- oh my God. They were eating that night. Going crazy," Simmons told OB. “It was a wild atmosphere. The defense showed me what I wanted to see. (DeMarvion Overshown) is the heart of the defense.”
January 9th, 2023: While in San Antonio for the All-American Bowl, Simmons outlines his recruitment by stressing that "LSU is not 100 percent," which showcased LSU's positioning in his recruitment while Simmons was trying to downplay it.
“My position coach is still there and he’s the defensive [run game] coordinator, coach Cain,” Simmons said. “I just want to clear the air, my decision is wide open. LSU is not 100 percent. I’m going to keep people on their toes, I’m going to keep people guessing, you’re not ever going to know with me.
“LSU feels like home. It feels like Texas honestly, it’s just a smaller place with the same diversity, same this and that. It clicks with me. That’s why I love it so much. Mr. Cain is going to coach you for real. He’s going to make sure you’re straight, you’re right. When you’re on the field, he’s going to push you to higher lengths.”
March 25th, 2023: Simmons returns to Austin with his mother for the first time since November for an unofficial visit. The Longhorns made up some significant ground on this weekend.
“They really impressed us this weekend. I’ll say that much. They’re definitely in the race. I don’t know if they can do anything more,” Monica McCarley (Colin's mom) said. “Colin has been to Texas more than any other school. He’s been down there, to Austin, probably seven or eight times in the past year. So I'm not sure if they can do anything different than what they've already done.”
While Simmons is in Austin, LSU defensive line coach Jamar Cain leaves the LSU program for a job in the NFL on the same day.
May 25th, 2023: Simmons is in the process of setting up his official visits. Miami (June 9th), Oregon (June 16th) and Texas (June 23rd) were on the books for his first three visits, while LSU was purposely slotted for November 11th.
"I know that I want to take an OV for the LSU versus Florida game. So, that will be my official visit for LSU," Simmons told Rivals' Adam Gorney.
June 23rd, 2023: This is the moment when Simmons took his official visit to Texas and his recruitment takes a real turn for the Longhorns. Swept away by the good vibes on his visit, Simmons reportedly indicated on his visit that he would be committing to the Longhorns in the near future, possibly as early as the first couple of weeks in July.
July 4th, 2023: There are whispers in the Texas program that Simmons might announce his commitment at some point in the next week, a sentiment echoed by Rivals' analyst Adam Gorney:
"There have been significant rumors especially in the last few weeks that Texas has emerged as the front-runner in this recruitment after months of Simmons liking LSU a whole lot," Gorney reported. "Throughout his recruitment, the five-star defensive end from Duncanville, Texas has been complimentary of many teams but as it gets closer this one feels like a two-team race with the Longhorns pulling ahead. A commitment any day might not be out of the question."
July 19th, 2023: Simmons teases to his social media following that a decision could be looming, which seems exactly like the positive sign that the Longhorns were hoping for following the previous month of gains.
July 27th, 2023: Simmons returns to LSU for the first time in 2023, along with fellow Duncanville standouts (2024) Caden Durham and (2025) Dakorian Moore. It's on this visit that Simmons is reminded of just how much he loves both Baton Rouge and the LSU program. By my count, it has been 320 days since Simmons had last visited Brian Kelly's program.
August 2nd, 2023: Simmons announces that he will make his college announcement eight days later on August 10. On the day Simmons announces his commitment date, LSU loses the defensive line coach recruiting Simmons for the second time in less than five months, as it is announced that Jimmy Lindsey will be taking an indefinite leave of absence while he deals with a personal matter.
August 10th, 2023: Commitment Date.
No. 2 - The Pros and Cons ...
Now that we're nearly at the moment of truth., let's take a look at the dynamics for both of his top two schools.
As it relates to Texas...
* Let's start with the fact that for most of this summer, Simmons has been leaning incredibly hard to the Longhorns. For most of July, the expectation was that Simmons would announce for the Longhorns at some point before his school year started. In order for the decision to be LSU, it would mean that Texas would have been a strong leader for more than a month, only to see Simmons not only change his tune over a weekend, but commit away from the Longhorns in less than two weeks. If the Tigers had really swept Simmons off his feet, it just seems more likely that this fact would have caused a delay in a decision that was already expected, rather than turning away from the school that he privately got engaged to a month ago.
* Simmons has visited Texas more than any school. In fact, Simmons visited Texas three times in a row in between his last two visits to Baton Rouge. In all, Simmons and his family have made at least six trips to Texas in the last 19 months.
* Family is incredibly important to Simmons, especially his relationship with his younger brother, which means that the shorter distance from Austin to Duncanville (versus his other two candidates) makes it much easier to visit them at any given moment. The difference between a 150-minute one-way drive vs. a 300+ minute one-way drive or needing to take a flight back would seem to represent an important advantage.
* It feels like Texas has the mom in its corner.
* Texas won't be beaten on an NIL front. LSU has an incredibly strong NIL game, but they won't beat Texas on NIL for Simmons. Full stop.
* If education matters at all, there's really no comparing a degree from one of the best public universities in the world vs. one of the best public universities in the state of Louisiana.
* There's actually been some public romanticism from Simmons over the idea of staying in-state and playing for its flagship university.
* Simmons actually has a relationship with the coaches that will be working with him at Texas, while no one can really say at LSU right now who his position coach in 2024 would even be if he signs with the Tigers.
* The word on the street is that LSU was able to put a dent into the reputation of Texas defensive coordinator Pete Kwiatkowski, as the Tigers pushed strong messaging to Simmons that Kwiatkowski doesn't produce high-level NFL players at his position and doesn't have a history of producing top NFL talents. Obviously, the Longhorns can refute the idea that Kwiatkowski doesn't develop NFL players at his position by simply pointing to his body of work at Washington, but it is true that he hasn't worked with an edge prospect of Simmons' pedigree at any point in his career.
As it relates to LSU ...
* There's no getting away from the fact that Simmons loves both the LSU program and Baton Rouge. In the event you missed it 1,000 words ago, he's openly gushed about his feelings for both in multiple interviews with Orangebloods. "LSU feels like home," Simmons told OB. "It feels like Texas honestly, it’s just a smaller place with the same diversity, same this and that. It clicks with me. That’s why I love it so much." If all things are equal, it's quite possible that he has stronger personal feelings for LSU than Texas.
* LSU has won at the highest levels as recent as Simmons' eighth-grade year in middle school. The last time Texas won double-digit games on the field in the regular season, Simmons was three years old.
* LSU has a better record over Simmons' lifetime of producing NFL players than Texas does. Since 2014, the Tigers have produced 80 NFL Draft picks, while Texas has merely produced 26 NFL Draft picks.
* Although Texas is committed to providing the best NIL package, Simmons knows that LSU is far from a slouch in that department, pointing to athletes like Angel Reese and Livvy Dunne. While LSU women's athletes are earning incredible bank, it remains to be seen whether LSU's top football players are making more in NIL than UT's top players.
* It feels like LSU might have some of Simmons' family in its corner.
* It's very likely that Duncanville 2024 star running back Caden Durham will commit to LSU on Thursday and there had been scuttlebutt that Dakorian Moore might join him, although Moore dismissed the idea of a commitment in four days on Sunday.
Overall
You can see why LSU is making this an incredibly hard decision for Simmons, but it feels like Texas has more going for it than the Tigers, who literally can't tell him who his future position coach would be.
In a way, it feels like a battle of first love (LSU) vs. best-loved (Texas).
My sourcing is still confident that the Longhorns will win this battle, which is why my Futurecast remains in burnt orange, but two things have been stressed all week.
a. LSU has landed some serious body blows on the Longhorns.
b. This recruitment will be won in November/December and not in August.
"None of this discussion will matter if we don't do our part on the field," one source told me this weekend. "A commitment in August might not mean anything at all if we fail to start winning big. If he gets to Signing Day and he feels like he's taking a chance with us, we're probably in trouble."
No. 3 - Camp Impressions: Week One ...
* There's no question that this has become Quinn Ewers's team at the quarterback position in a way that we haven't seen since Sam Ehlinger's departure. We'll see what it means when the pressure moments arrive, but he's definitely separated from the pack, something that was a bit of a question mark four months ago following an end to the 2022 season that featured his head coach openly calling out the passing game. His shadow over the proceedings of the last four days might be the thing that stands out the most through the first week.
* This time last year, I had sourcing within the team questioning his commitment and intellect. That feels like a million miles ago. Kudos to Ewers for putting in the work to answer those areas of concern.
* For the first time this week, I found myself openly questioning my emphatic claim that Arch Manning will be the starting quarterback in 2024, no questions asked and no doubt about it.
* It feels like the issue with Manning is a matter of continuing to grow comfortable at this level, while the mental processing aspect of the position slows down. He's not ready to play right now and that's ok. Neither was Vince Young in 2002. Or Colt McCoy in 2005. Or Sam Ehlinger in 2017. Or Ewers in 2021/2022.
* AD Mitchell looks every bit the player that the Longhorns were missing last season at the outside receiver position opposite Xavier Worthy.
* Asked one source who he thought looked best between Cole Hutson and DJ Campbell ... "Campbell" is the response I got. It's still early and both players are getting a ton of first-team reps.
* I get the sense that Steve Sarkisian is waiting on C.J. Baxter to take the running back job away from everyone else. Just what the tea leaves look like to me.
* What's happening with Savion Red right now (not having a real pathway to the field) was always going to happen to some degree once Keilan Robinson returned. It is what it is.
* Johntay Cook is simply not going to be held back. He's been doing it this week since minute one.
* In the event of an injury to an outside starting wide receiver, it feels pretty obvious that Cook would step into the vacated starting position at this point. I wonder what would happen in a world where Jordan Whittington missed action for any reason? Would that open the door for Ryan Niblett/DeAndre Moore or would Sarkisian move Worthy or Cook inside?
* Texas HAS to find a tight end in the Portal for the 2024 season. Maybe two.
* Cam Williams playing five seconds at left tackle with the second team is quite the crap sandwich he's shoving down the throats of his detractors from the recruiting process. Kudos to @Alex Dunlap for being a strong advocate for Williams before Kyle Flood truly was.
* Christian Jones is a damn man.
* Still keeping my eye on freshman DT Sydir Mitchell. There's a desire to see him give more effort and commitment every day and not just on some days. Person I spoke with on Saturday indicated that Mitchell has picked up the pace in a good way.
* Please do not use the "Baby Bosa" nickname around me with regard to Colton Vasek. I know that's coming from the Texas players, but let's not follow them on this one. You know I love the kid's upside, but let's just not. For those that will read that and think I'm being a cranky old man, just remember that a few months ago people were describing Savion Red in Deebo Samuel terms.
* There were some inside the program who didn't seem to care whether S'Maje Burrell stayed or left before Signing Day when he was flirting with Houston, so it's interesting to see that he might be making the biggest and best first impression from the heralded linebacker group outside of Anthony Hill.
* I've had people single out Malik Muhammad, Jelani McDonald and Derek Williams to me in the last 24 hours.
No. 4 - Dominick McKinley ...
Full transparency - the Longhorns are definitely making a move for the Louisiana native, who is rated as a five-star by multiple recruiting services. That being said, I haven't had any of my sources put the Texas confidence level at the heights of Simmons, Kobe Black and Brandon Baker.
There's some scuttlebutt that he could make a commitment on September 1. It'll be interesting to see if the confidence levels climb in the coming weeks.
No. 5 - Pac-12 Doomsday ...
There's a strong likelihood that the single most SEC-like statement that I have ever made in my life is about to follow this sentence.
I just don't find myself weeping/semi-caring about what has happened to the schools out West this week.
College athletics has been heading to a world of three or four super conferences for more than a decade.
Let's just get on with it ... whatever it happens to be.
We're closer to it today than we were just a few days ago. The SEC and Big 10 matter a lot. The Big 12 matters more than it did. We'll see about the ACC because Florida State and Clemson seem to be wanting to claw their way out as soon as possible. Meanwhile, four teams on the West Coast became collateral damage.
In my best Al Pacino voice in The Devil's Advocate ... embrace it, folks. The NCAA is an absentee landlord. Worship that? Never! Who, in their right mind could possibly deny college football in the 21st century is an ascendancy? All of it, folks! All of it. It's our time."
Stanford, Cal, Oregon State and Washington State, be damned.
No. 6 - Back to the Super Blue Chips Discussion ...
Just wanted to return to the graphic I made a couple of weeks ago related to the historical number of Super Blue Chips. OB's @Old Orange One sent me an updated graphic with the number of wins each team had.
Take a look.
A couple of thoughts on the graphic.
a. You can make a case that Mack Brown's performance in the 2010 season is the single-worst season of coaching in the history of the program. It's hard to look away from that season when looking at it.
b. Tom Herman's first two seasons in Austin, especially the 2018 season, might be two of the most underrated coaching seasons in the history of the school. Winning 7 games with the lowest number of super blue chips that the program has seen in the last 25+ years isn't trophy-worthy, but it is worth a head nod.
c. Texas hasn't had as many super blues in the program as it has this season since 2011. The records between 2005-2009 tell us what is possible, as well as that 2010-2011 window.
No. 7 - Latest in-state recruiting numbers ....
Only 16 of the Top 100 in this year's Lone Star Recruiting list remain uncommitted.
Of those 16 uncommitted prospects, six are in the top 11 prospects in the state, including the entire top four.
No. 8 – BUY or SELL …
(Sell/Buy) I think Ryan Watts will be the first-team All-Big 12 cornerback this season, while Brooks could be second-team. I do think Campbell overtakes Hutson at some point.
b/s it will take an entourage and chartered private jet to get @drunk randoke out of harm’s way at Bama game.
(Sell) Just dangle a beer over his head like he's a donkey and he'll follow it all the way to the airport.
(Sell) I don't know what that would be based on, even with a commitment from Simmons.
(Buy) Big-time pass rushers are harder for Texas to get their hands on than big-time quarterbacks.
(Buy) Like it's 1999.
(Sell) Alex is always an optimist with Texas football.
(Sell) She was never on it. Messi, Pele, Cruyff and Maradona.
(Buy) Everything is on the table.
(Sell) Manning gets the final 5 minutes.
(Sell) Hutson gets the start for week two and Campbell takes over the next week.
(Buy) Yeah, that's very buyable.
(Sell) Great question. I'm going to say he sticks, but it's going to be one hell of a fight down the stretch.
No. 9 - Scattershooting on anything and everything ...
... What should I do for my 280,000th post? I missed celebrating my 400,000th like. I may or may not spend too much time on Orangebloods.
... D'Shawn Jamison has been catching eyes all week at 49ers camp
... I'm kind of worried about Dak Prescott. He's 30 years old. Do we really think his best football will be played in his 30s? If he declines, what the hell do the Cowboys do?
... D-Mo is under the watch of Micah Parsons in his rookie season. What a perfect mentor.
... DeMarcus Ware with some powerful story-telling at his HOF speech.
... From low three-star to Revis Island. His smile kind of reminds me of a young Pac.
... Say what you want to about Phillies fans, but right at the moment that could be killing Trea Turner for a horrible season, they picked him up this week with curtain calls before at-bats and it might have started to change his season.
... I don't care what anyone says ... the Astros are the team to beat in the American League.
... 10-8 round for Ramirez.
... No way the Lakers will regret any portion of the Anthony Davis deal ... no way.
... The US women's soccer team going out in the Round of 16 in the World Cup in a match where the post-shot Xg was 1.8 to 0.1 in favor of the US over Sweden is incredibly ironic. 11 shots on target to 1. The US dominated that match and found a way to not get it done.
... T-minus six days until the starter of the Premier League season. I'm ready.
... Caught Oppenheimer for a second time this week and I loved the movie even more the second time around. There's so much going on at such a fast speed throughout the movie that it can be confusing at times upon first watch, but the second time around everything slowed down for me considerably. I love all three phases of the movie for different reasons, but the climactic peak of the test run and the scenes between RDJ and Cillian Murphy are sizzlingly sensational. Those moments are absolutely enthralling. It's part historical theater, part courtroom drama, part dialogue greatness and part action movie wrapped inside of a Hall of Fame cast of actors. My rating continues to be... A+.
... Barbie has made a billion dollars world-wide. Margot Robbie is the new Babe Ruth of Hollywood. She called her shot.
... My updated Top 10 films of 2023
- Oppenheimer
- Spiderman: Across the Spider-Verse
- Past Lives
- Rye Lane
- Barbie
- MI: Dead Reckoning (Part I)
- Air
- Are You There God? It's me, Margaret.
- John Wick: Chapter 4
- Blackberry
In listening to my favorite non-sports podcast (The Re-Watachables) focus on "A Few Good Men" this week, it crossed my mind that the final 20 minutes Col. Jessep (Jack Nicholson) and Lt. Daniel Kaffee (Tom Cruise) might represent the best ending to any movie ever made.
In the moment it crossed my mind, a few other endings crossed my mind as competitors for the crown and it dawned on me that this needed to be this weekend's Top 10.
I'm sure there will be zero disputes.
Honorable Mention: One Flew Over the Cuckoo's Nest, Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid, The Sixth Sense, The Bridge on the River Kwai, Raiders of the Lost Arc, Inception, Avengers: Infinity War, Chinatown, Whiplash, The Sound of Music, There Will Be Blood and Citizen Kane
10. The Karate Kid
Perhaps I just can't deny the 11-year-old version of me, but from the moment that the karate tournament starts all the way through the moment in the locker room with Mr. Miyagi and then the final fight scene against Johnny ... it's pulsating fun!
9. It's a Wonderful Life
From the moment George Bailey realizes on the bridge that he has his life back, the rest of the movie is an emotional joyride ... right up until we realize that Clarence has received his wings.
8. Seven
From the car ride into the desert on, Kevin Spacey's character has us on the absolute edge of our seats.
7. The Usual Suspects
Back to back spots in the top 10 for Spacey.
6. The Shawshank Redemption
From the moment that Andy crawls through crap to break out until he meets with Red on the beach, it's as fulfilling of a movie ending that has ever been created.
5. Rocky
How many times have you yelled out "Adrian!" over the last 47 years?
4. Jaws
From the moment they are signing on the boat until the moment there are shark guts everywhere, the movie is throwing 100MPH.
3. The Godfather
Baptisms have never been the same.
2. A Few Good Men
It doesn't quite make the top spot.
1. Casablanca
I'm not sure it's ever going to be beaten.
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