Yes, I know some of you hate this particular metaphor, but when the metaphor fits perfectly, you have to go with it.
Don't get me wrong, the Sooners are going to get a good replacement when the dust settles. Joe Castiglione has proven to be quite savvy in making his last two head football coaching hires, so he's earned some benefit of the doubt.
Still ...
Lincoln Riley IS the image with which the Sooners have built the entire program over the last half-decade. His quarterbacks aren't just great players, they almost always turn into NFL starters at a minimum and Heisman winners/all-time legends of the collegiate game.
On top of all-time great offensive chops as a quarterback/play-caller, Riley has spent years cultivating the West Coast as a recruiting territory for the Sooners.
I'm talking about 2022 5-star running back commit Raleek Brown, 2023 five-star quarterback commit Malachi Nelson and two more 2023 national top 50-level wide receivers commits.
Those dudes are going from California to the home of the Dust Bowl for no other reason than they want to play in Riley's funhouse offensive system.
Color me as jaded, but those dudes ain't going to OU now that Riley is gone. OU's identity is gone. The myth-maker is gone. The Big 12 championship-maker is gone.
It's a lot to process.
As it relates to the Longhorns, this has to count as a massive win. The Sooners can go out and hire a great offensive mind to replace Riley, but the chances of them producing all-time historically great offenses on an annual basis like Riley has is incredibly small.
Meanwhile, it also makes the recruitment of five-star offensive lineman Devon Campbell incredibly hard to call. USC has always been a school that he's loved and Lincoln Riley has always been a coach that he's expressed a desire to play for. Maybe this helps Texas land him. Or maybe it just complicated the hell out of it.
It's such a massive shift in the landscape of college football that it might take a few days or more to fully comprehend what has actually happened to a stunned Oklahoma program. There's no way to spin what has happened.
OU's cornbread and cornbread maker are both gone in one swoop.
That's the biggest win of the 2021 season for the Texas football program.
No. 2 - About the recent de-commitments ...
No offense to any of the three players that de-committed from the Longhorns in the last week, but Steve Sarkisian and the Texas program as a whole have bigger fish to fry.
Armani Winfield is a very nice wide receiver prospect and he might do well at Michigan State (if that's where he ends up), but he's a low four-star wide receiver prospect, but only four of the last 42 low four-star wide receiver prospects from Texas in the last 15 recruiting classes have gone on to become NFL players.
The historical data shows that there's a 90 percent chance that Texas fans won't miss him.
Jamarion Miller is a hell of a running back prospect and I'm not going to waste time trying to convince you otherwise, but with the Longhorns returning their top four running backs in 2022, you'll just have to forgive me for not sweating the running back position at this exact moment. Also, just for the record ... only two of the last 12 (16.7%) mid four-star running backs from the state of Texas going back to 2004 were drafted by NFL teams - Knile Davis (3rd round) and Eno Benjamin (7th round).
The historical data shows that there's an 83 percent chance that Texas fans won't miss him.
As for Eoghan Kerry, he's a mid three-star defensive tweener that was probably a three-year prospect for the Longhorns had he stuck with his commitment.
The historical data shows that there's a 95 percent chance that Texas fans won't miss him.
Barring something unforeseen, none of the three likely would have made any impact on the 2022 season for the Longhorns and while it might be a short-sighted view of things, finding ways for the Longhorns to immediately help themselves on the field in 2022 is how I'm choosing to view the remainder of the 2021 recruiting year.
Unless a high school recruit is a national top 60-70 type of prospect, which brings a level of upside and possible high-level early impact that is completely different than every other high school prospect available across the country, I'm turning my immediate focus on trying to find help through the Portal.
The math (see sections 4 and 5) indicates that there's a much higher rate of finding someone in the Portal that can help your football team RIGHT NOW if you're looking in the right places than finding high school players that have less than a 15 percent chance of helping you over the course of the next four years.
In a world of slight margins making massive differences, I'm just of the mindset at the moment that the margins that come with my line of thinking are bigger than most realize.
I'm starting a revolution, folks! Join me!
No. 3 - A quick look at the scholarship numbers ...
With the conclusion of the 2021 season, it's probably a good time to update the current UT scholarship board.
A few notes ...
* Until a player announces otherwise, we're going to assume at this point that the entire senior class is out. If someone announces that he is returning for another season, we'll add him back.
* Juniors Rafiti Ghirmai, Kai Money and Al'Vonte Woodard all participated in Senior Day on Friday, so we're going to assume that they are moving on from the Texas football program.
* Offensive lineman Tyler Johnson has been removed as well. Although there's been no official announcement, he hasn't been involved in team activities for at least a month.
* Keep in mind that the Longhorns have the ability to move one of the early enrollees from the 2022 group into the 2021 class from a numbers standpoint, which means that the Longhorns are technically sitting at 19 from a numbers standpoint, which means there are still 13 spots open until the Longhorns hit the current 32 number the NCAA has made available.
No. 4 - The 2021 Transfer Class ... how good was it?
In an effort to give everyone an idea of the type of impact that can be found in the transfer portal, I decided to research the production from The Athletic's Top 50 Transfers from this summer.
From my vantage point in reviewing the data, there were as many flat out difference makers/game changers than there were busts/players that didn't emerge as starters in year one of their transfers.
Take a gander...
1. RB Eric Gray (Oklahoma via Tennessee) - Although he still has a season of eligibility remaining, Gray was a bust for the Sooners in the first year upon arriving from Knoxville. Finished the regular season with only 330 yards rushing as the chief back-up to Kennedy Brooks. Interesting enough, his yards per carry (4.8) were right in line with what he did at Tennessee in 2020 (4.9)
2. LB Henry To’o To’o (Alabama via Tennessee) - Leads the Tide in tackles (93), while ranking fourth on the team in tackles for loss (8.0) and sacks (4.0).
3. DB Tyrique Stevenson (Miami via Georgia) - Regarded as one of the top corners in the ACC this season. Finished with 40 tackles, one interception and a team-best four pass break-ups in 10 regular season games. Still has multiple seasons of eligibility remaining.
4. DE Jermaine Johnson (Florida State via Georgia) - Was a monster for the Seminoles this season, ranking first in sacks (12), tackles for loss (18) and finished second on the team in tackles (70).
5. DT Siaki Ika (Baylor via LSU) - Has been a rock for the Bears at nose-tackle all season. Has 3.5 sacks this season as a sophomore.
6. TE Aril Gilbert (Georgia via LSU) - Hasn't played this season because of personal issues and it remains to be seen whether he ever plays for the Dawgs.
7. Tykee Smith (Georgia via West Virginia) - Suffered from a broken foot early in the season, only to tear an ACL in October just as he was starting to return to action.
8. QB Jack Coan (Notre Dame via Wisconsin) - Has been a quality starter for the Irish this season, posting a 160 season efficiency rating, while posting an 18/5 TD:INT ratio.
9. CB Derion Kendrick (Georgia via Clemson) - Has started all season for the Dawgs at cornerback, compiling 32 tackles, 2 interceptions and 3 pass break-ups.
10. OL Cain Madden (Notre Dame via Marshall) - Started a little slow in September, but has emerged as one of the best starting offensive linemen for the Irish. Hasn't allowed a single quarterback pressure since early October and has graded out as one of the best run blockers on the team.
11. WR Wan'Dale Robinson (Kentucky via Nebraska) - Will likely earn all-SEC honors this season after catching 94 passes for 1,154 yards and seven touchdowns for the Wildcats.
12. WR Charleston Rambo (Miami via Oklahoma) - Set school records in catches (79) and receiving yards (1,172) for the Hurricanes this season.
13. QB McKenzie Milton (FSU via Central Florida) - Played sparingly throughout the season for the Noles and posted pretty poor numbers (3 TD/5 INT) in the process.
14. RB Ty Chandler (UNC via Tennessee) - Has been one of the best players for the Tar Heels all season, rushing for 1,063 yards, 13 touchdowns and 6.1 yards per carry.
15. DB Kenderick Duncan (Louisville via Georgia Southern) - Duncan was one of the best players for the Cardinals this season, ranking third in total tackles (76), an interception and pass break-ups.
16. DE Deandre Johnson (Miami via Tennessee) - Posted 26 tackles, 8 tackles for loss, 4.5 sacks and 5 quarterback pressures.
17. DE Keion White (Georgia Tech via Old Dominion) - Injuries got the best of White this season, who only played in four games in an effort to preserve a season of eligibility.
18. LB Mike Jones Jr. - (LSU via Clemson) - Was a disappointment for the Tigers, in making only 31 tackles and 1.5 tackles for loss in 12 games this season. Still has multiple seasons of eligibility remaining.
19. WR Jameson Williams - (Alabama via Ohio State) - Competing for All-American honors with the Tide, as he currently has 59 receptions for 1,218 yards and 13 touchdowns.
20. QB Charlie Brewer (Utah via Baylor) - Left the Utes program in September after losing his starting job to former Texas quarterback Cameron Rising.
21. QB - Tyler Shough (Texas Tech via Oregon) - Started the season well for the Red Raiders (164 efficiency rating), but missed the majority of the season because of injury.
22. OL Obinna Eze (TCU via Memphis) - Started every game at left tackle all season for the Horned Frogs and was one of the bright spots in a disappointing season for TCU.
23. DT Antonio Shelton (Florida via Penn State) - Didn't emerge as a real impact player for the Gators. Played in 12 games, but only recorded 21 tackles and three tackles for loss.
24. DT Daquan Newkirk (Florida vis Auburn) - Battled injuries this season and was limited to 8 games, only making 16 tackles and 1.5 tackles for loss in the process.
25. DE Arnold Ebiketie (Penn State via Temple) - Was one of the best defensive ends in the Big 10 this season, recording 62 tackles, 18 tackles for loss and 9.5 sacks.
26. OL Doug Nester (West Virginia via Virginia Tech) - Started all season for the Mountaineers at guard during his junior season, despite having to deal with a broken hand for most of the year. Graded out as one of West Virginia's best linemen all season.
27. DE Jordan Strachan (South Carolina via Georgia State) - Was solid in his 12 games with the Gamecocks, recording 21 tackles, 4.5 tackles for loss and 1.5 sacks.
28. OL Dare Rosenthal (Kentucky via LSU) - Started at left tackle for the Wildcats all season and is expected to be a name that NFL scouts have an interest in during the spring.
29. RB Zach Charbonnet (UCLA via Michigan) - Has rushed for 1,031 yards and 12 touchdowns this season for the Bruins as a junior.
30. RB Kenneth Walker (Michigan State via Wake Forest) - Was an early Heisman candidate and one of the best players in the Big 10, rushing for 1,498 yards and 17 touchdowns for the Spartans.
31. LB Isaac Slade-Matautia (SMU via Oregon) - Had a disappointing season for the Mustangs after leading Oregon in tackles in 2020. Finished the regular season with only 21 tackles.
32. QB Will Levis - (Kentucky via Penn State) - Has been more than rock solid as Kentucky's starting quarterback this season, finishing with 23 touchdowns, 12 interceptions and a 149.6 efficiency rating.
33. QB Ryan Hilinski (Northwestern via South Carolina) - Still has two seasons of eligibility remaining, but he was pretty awful in 2021, posting a 101.7 passing efficiency.
34. DT Jay Toia (UCLA via USC) - Only played in 8 games as a freshman this season and made virtually no impact for the Bruins.
35. DE Ryder Anderson (Indiana via Ole Miss) - Was one of the best players for the Hoosiers this season, ranking fifth in tackles (48), second in tackles for loss (8.5) and second in sacks (3.5).
36. DB TJ Carter (TCU via Memphis) - One of the top defensive players for the Horned Frogs at safety, finishing second on the team in tackles.
37. DB Julius Brents (Kansas State via Iowa) - Started all season for the Wildcats as a junior, finishing with 44 tackles and 3 tackles for loss.
38. DB Akayleb Evans (Missouri vi Tulsa) - Started all season for the Tigers at cornerback and received a Senior Bowl invite with his strong play.
39. RB Keaontay Ingram (USC via Texas) - Ingram's senior season was derailed at the end by injury, but he still finished with 911 yards and five touchdowns.
40. WR Samori Toure (Nebraska via Montana) - Was possibly Nebraska's best offensive player with 48 receptions for 898 yards, 5 touchdowns and a 19.5 yards per reception.
41. WR D.J. Matthews (Indiana via FSU) - Was just starting to take off (5 receptions for 120 yards vs. Cincinnati) when an injury ended his season.
42. TE Jelani Woods (Virginia via Oklahoma State) - Ranked as one of the best tight ends in the nation this year as a junior, as he finished with 44 receptions for 598 yards and 8 touchdowns.
43. DB Jammie Robinson (Florida State via South Carolina) - Was fantastic for the Noles this season, leading the team in tackles (85), interceptions (4) and forced fumbles (2).
44. DE Keir Thomas (Florida State via South Carolina) - Was a solid playmaker off the edge for the Noles, ranking second on the team in tackles for loss (12) and sacks (6.5).
45. LB Palaie Gaoteote IV (Ohio State via USC) - A total non-factor for the Buckeyes this season.
46. DE Kevin Harris (Georgia tech via Alabama) - A total non-factor for Tech this season.
47. OL Wanya Morris (Oklahoma via Tennessee) - The junior started the season as a starter at tackle, but lost his job to Tyrese Robinson. Will compete for the vacated starting spot next season.
48. DB DB Key Lawrence (Oklahoma via Tennessee) - The sophomore ranked fifth on the team in tackles (45) and tied for the team lead in pass break-ups.
49. DB Marquis Waters (Texas Tech via Duke) - Injuries limited his season to only four games in an effort to preserve a season of eligibility.
50. DE Byron Vaughns (Utah State via Texas) - The former Longhorn emerged as a playmaker for the Aggies as a junior, finishing the season with 35 tackles, 8.5 tackles for loss and 3.5 sacks.
For those wondering how the numbers from the top 50 turned out, I counted 12 significant difference makers (24%), 31 starters/significant contributors (62%), 13 busts/non-starters (26%) and 6 injury-marred seasons (12%).
No. 5 - Focusing on the offensive line ...
With the needs along the Texas offensive line going into next season so vital to this team's ability to improve, I thought I would expand the breakdown of the 2021 transfer portal with a look at just the offensive line.
Of the 5 offensive linemen that rank in The Athletics Top 50, four (Notre Dame's Cain Madden, TCU's Obinna Eze, West Virginia's Doug Nester and Kentucky's Dare Rosenthal) were season-long starters for their new teams.
Here's a look at the rest of the offensive linemen from the Top 100 list.
55. Jacob Gall (Baylor via Buffalo) - Has started every game at left guard for the Bears this season. Another grad transfer (Grant Miller) has started every game at right guard for the Bears.
60. Justice Oluwaseun (Miami via UNLV) - In his junior season with the Canes, Oluwaseun started at tackle and played multiple positions for the Miami offensive line.
63. Danny Godlevske (Oklahoma State via Miami Ohio) - Has started most of the season for the Cowboys at center, but has missed the last couple of games due to injury.
74. T.J. Storment (Texas Tech via TCU) - When healthy, Storment was a starter at tackle for the Red Raiders and one of their best linemen.
84. Jahmir Johnson (Texas A&M via Tennessee) - Started at left tackle all season for the Aggies.
85. Kody Russey (Houston via Louisiana Tech) - Has started at center all season for the Cougars.
100. Liam Dobson (Texas State via Maine) - Started all season at right tackle for the Bobcats.
Overall, 10 of the top 11 offensive line transfers available in the portal ended up being starters with the schools they signed with.
No. 6 – About the Michigan offensive line …
I know what you guys were thinking on Saturday when watching Michigan's offensive line dominate Ohio State on Saturday ...
How do we get an offensive line like that?
Well, it doesn't appear that elite recruiting is the answer. It appears that the combination of Jim Harbaugh, line coach Sherrone Moore and strength and conditioning coach Ben Herbert deserve a lot of the credit.
Take a look at the five starters:
I'm not sure how anyone could have seen his success coming a mile away. Coming into this season, Hayes had started only two career games for the Wolverines. This kid didn't even get a redshirt season. He just developed for three off-seasons and emerged as an impact player at left tackle (of all places) as a senior. I didn't even know that was possible.
On one hand, Keegan was obviously a very good prospect coming out of high school, who took visits to Ohio State, Georgia and Penn State, before choosing the Wolverines. On the other hand, he'd never made a start coming into this season had appeared in only two games as an offensive lineman.
Just call him Rudy. This kid started his career as a walk-on and has emerged as a two-year captain and a full-time starter at center in his sixth season. He's only playing in 2021 because of the super-senior rule.
The highest-rated starter in the line-up, Zinter started four games as a true freshman last year at right guard and has been the full-time starter this season when healthy. He's basically the one guy on this line who showed up at Michigan as a bad-ass from day one.
Stueber was a starter at two different positions in 2020, including four at right tackle, which is where he settled in this season. Was an interior player for the entirety of his career until last November.
Basically ...
No. 7 – BUY or SELL …
(Sell) Sorry, but that feels next to impossible. The Beard thing was very personal for those folks.
(Sell) Frankly, the idea of the program turning into a dumpster fire feels like hyperbole, but maybe ... just maybe ... it's their time to find out how the other half lives.
(Sell) They aren't crazy, but he' not the first coach that has enjoyed success in one conference, only to find life in another very difficult. That he's struggled in his first year at a school that lacks pass rushers and playmakers shouldn't be a shock, but he didn't do anything all year to the naked eye that made this unit better. A truly elite defensive coordinator has at least one trick up his sleeve. I didn't see a single one all season.
(Sell) There's a good chance that they'll hire a more proven coach than Sarkisian, but that six consecutive titles thing is done. That will never happen again.
(Buy) Word in the street is that he wasn't down for the SEC and I have a hard time blaming him when you consider that so much of his recruiting success is based in another direction these days. Oh, and it's way more competitive. Oh, and the USC job is a massive one on paper.
(Sell) Leach wouldn't do anything but win seven or eight games each year and recruiting would go straight into the crapper.
(Buy) This is the move USC has been needing to make since Pete Carroll bolted.
(Sell) This program dearly needs some defensive coaching retention and I would do everything I can to make sure that he has as many tools as possible this year to rectify the problems within the defense. Plus, Sark might only have one "change the DC card" that he can play before he loses his job. It's probably best to save that for next year as an option.
(Buy) Until I see the full 2022 plan, it's hard to take the over.
(Buy) Maybe 6-6 or 7-5.
(Sell) While I certainly love the kid's talent, it's hard not to have some doubt at this point, especially when you consider that it's hard for me to believe that Card could willingly earn Sarkisian's trust after what happened this season. In a way, it's a little like Charlie Strong and Tyrone Swoopes in 2015. If you make the same bad decision twice, you'd be begging to be fired if it doesn't work out.
(Sell) There's simply no evidence that suggests this is true yet. Seeing some signs that it's a possibility would be a great step in the right direction in 2022.
(Sell) You better hope not.
(Buy) I'm always going to be for taking steps to improve the program and his hire would represent that.
No. 8 - Scattershooting on the sports weekend ...
... That was an all-time great Saturday of college football. The NFL just can't replicate what we witnessed for more than 11 straight hours. I enjoyed being lazy and watching every second of it.
... I'm stunned that Oklahoma State is playing Baylor for the Big 12 title. That's a real thing that is actually happening.
... I really thought Caleb Williams was going to take it to the house on that long run in the last minute of the game. VY would have.
... You bet your last dollar I enjoyed watching Michigan force-feed Ohio State a shit sandwich.
... Good for those Michigan fans. They waited a long time for that feeling of euphoria and it came across big-time on television. Those folks were out of their minds.
... Auburn left the door open for Alabama when it had a chance to close it shut. That's on them.
... Cameron Rising is the quarterback that got away for the Longhorns. That guy looks better with every week that passes.
... Mack Brown's team stole defeat from the jaws of victory on Saturday in a fashion that would make Auburn fans blush.
... Georgia is going to rip Alabama a new one. That's a Tide team ripe for a beating.
... Jimbo Fisher is recruiting an army of big-time recruits, but he still finishes .500 in the SEC a lot, huh?
... I guess we've heard the last from UTSA fans for the rest of 2021.
... I'm just ignoring the Dallas Cowboys at this point.
... The Big Ben era in Pittsburgh is almost over, right?
... The Giants did the Cowboys a favor on Sunday. Thanks, G-Men.
... I haven't got the slightest clue how this NFL season is going to end.
No. 9 - Top 10 Beach Boys songs ...
I went on a Pet Sounds kick this week, so it seemed like a good time to make the group the subject of this week's Top 10 list.
It all reminds me of seeing them in concert in Austin on July 4th in the late 80s. I can't remember exactly what year the concert took place, but I remember having great seats.
Here's my list (don't judge my No. 10 pick).
10. Kokomo
9. Surfer Girl
8. California Girls
7. Caroline, No
6. Sloop John B
5. Surf's Up
4. I get Around
3. Wouldn't It be Nice
2. God Only Knows
1. Good Vibrations
No. 10 - And Finally...
We've seen a million people run onto various sporting fields/courts over the years and I'm not sure I've ever seen anyone not only pull it off better, but he ended up with the game ball in the process.
This kid is the hero this world needs.
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