With National Signing Day a mere few days away, I thought about writing a big picture piece on recruiting with a bit of a subjective question at the center of the discussion.
What makes a recruiting class successful after pen has been put to paper, specifically at the highest levels of the sport?
Of course, we can map out what it takes to piece together a highly-ranked national recruiting class (lot of five stars and national top 100 players help a lot), but what level of success needs to occur in terms of four- to five-year development/production that will produce conference championships and potential playoff success in the future?
Honestly, I'm not sure I can completely piece together something that fits nicely into a box with a ribbon and bow on it, but based on looking at the results from the recruiting classes that Mack Brown put together from 1999-2007, which only produced the most successful era in the modern history of the program, I was able to come up with a few conclusions.
At least 30 percent of the class needs to emerge as consistent starters
Ssssshhhh ... this is a bit of a secret, but most of the kids that sign with a major college program don't end up being successful. There's a reason why most four stars enter college with less than a 25-percent chance of ever emerging as the kind of performer that will eventually lead to an opportunity to play at the next level.
Even the 2002 recruiting class, which for my money is easily the best class in the history of the Texas program, produced only 12 consistent starters out of the 28 players it signed. That's 42-percent. Of course, that class also produced five all-Americans and 10 players that played in the NFL, so those 12 starters were drenched in quality, but it wasn't a group that produced an incredibly high percentage of contributors compared to the classes that supported it in the following year.
The highest level of starting contribution during that era occurred in 2005 when nine of the 14 (64-percent) players signed ended up being season-long level starters at a very minimum.
From 1999-2005, the Longhorns found a way to break the 30-percent mark in each class, which largely explains why Texas played for two national titles and was a mainstay in the top 5-10.
It's not rocket science if you're wondering what caused the bottom to fall out starting in 2010. Starting in 2006, the volume and quality of what was produced dropped to levels that simply wouldn't support elite-level success.
Perhaps more than volume, it was the quality that fell off beginning with the 2006 recruiting class.
At least 6+ NFL players
Take a look at the NFL players produced from 2001-10
2001: 6
2002: 10
2003: 6
2004: 6
2005: 7
2006: 3
2007: 5
2008: 5
2009: 2
2010: 4
I know that there's a sense from some of you that I place too much emphasis on making it to the NFL, but there's no questioning that it's a fair barometer of the talent being produced/developed within a college football program.
In a five year cycle from 2001-05, Texas recruiting classes produced 35 NFL players. In the five cycles that followed, Texas recruiting classes produced 19.
The margins might seem slight upon first glance, but when you stack the classes on top of each other, those margins often mean the difference between 8-win seasons and 11-win seasons.
At least three all-Americans per class
Take a look at the all-Americans produced from 2001-09
2001: 4
2002: 5
2003: 4
2004: 3
2005: 2
2006: 2
2007: 2
2008: 0
2009: 2
Again, the margins might seem slight, but one or two extra per year translates to 16 in a four-year cycle between 2001-04 vs. eight in a five-year cycle from 2005-09.
Difference-makers matter.
All in all, all of this data is a study in the importance of being on the right side of the slight margins that determine small success and large success.
No. 2 - Six big-picture thoughts with Wednesday looming ...
... It's a rock solid class, but not a great one, especially coming on the heels of a sensational group a year ago. On one hand, the star ranking per prospect is almost identical at this stage of recruiting as a year ago, but the volume of the highest end level of prospects just isn't the same, although there's obviously still time to change that.
... The out of state recruiting, which is an area of the program that has been far too stagnant for far too long, has saved the entire class. Nine of the 14 four-star recruits in the class so far are of the out of state variety, which speaks to the commitment of the Texas coaches to go wherever they needed to go to find the high-end talent. It'll be fascinating to see if this becomes a trend under Herman because in an ideal world you'd love to be able to cherry pick the best out of state talent available and combine it with a bevy of the best in-state talent.
... I'm not going to beat this poor, dead horse too much, but the in-state recruiting just wasn't good enough this year. Of the 32 kids from the state of Texas that are currently Rivals250 members, the Longhorns have landed only three of them. For some perspective, the Longhorns signed 11 Rivals250 prospects from the Lone Star State a year ago. From a historical perspective, it's probably the worst in-state haul I've ever seen in a Texas recruiting class going all the way back to the Mackovic years.
... As was the case a year ago, the skill players in this class are really, really good. Maybe flat out great. Three of the top six players in the class are receivers/tight ends, which should only add even more high octane fuel to a Texas offense that should be even better in 2019 with Sam Ehlinger entering the beginning of his prime as a player.
... Only one of the top 10 highest-rated prospects in this class is a linebacker or defensive lineman. That's not a big deal within the realm of the Big 12 because very few teams in the Big 12 are bringing in the highest of the high-end defensive talent available across the country, but when it comes to competing and beating top 5-10 level teams (especially in a playoff game setting), the lack of impact front seven prospects on paper will delay the growth of this program as it attempts to climb to the national mountain top.
... Texas and Oklahoma continue to live in a different zip code than the rest of the Big 12. If anyone other than these two teams is playing in a Big 12 championship game in the next few years, some sort of coaching malpractice or injury tsunami (or both) will have occurred. To put it plain terms, Texas has three more four-star prospects than the other eight teams in the Big 12 combined. Even in a year when Texas is struggling in-state, it is leaps and bounds ahead of its competition, with the exception of one major rival.
No. 3 - Scattershooting on the remaining targets ...
Here is where my head is on the big remaining targets coming out of the weekend...
... Trey Sanders: In the last few weeks, Sanders has visited Alabama, Georgia and Florida ... I have to believe that the entire Southeastern portion of this country would fall into the Gulf of Mexico/Atlantic Ocean if Sanders went West of the Mississippi River.
... Noah Cain: I'm just not feeling it with the Cain and the Longhorns. If it was going to happen, I'd have to believe that the winds blowing in the direction of Austin would be felt by now.
... Bru McCoy: The Longhorns continue to fight the good fight in an effort to land this super blue chipper, but USC followed up a 150-minute unofficial visit at the end of the week with an official visit this weekend. While it was likely a real battle going into last week because of the relationship the Texas coaches have with McCoy, all of my experience in this industry tells me that USC will likely win this fight with a strong 12th round performance.
... Kennedy Lewis: Future Longhorn.
... Elijah Higgins: The Texas coaches just won't give up and of all the recruitments we're talking about at the finish line, Higgins might prove to be the one that the Longhorns get their hands on. Consider me very surprised that there seems to be so much apprehension on the Stanford side of things, given that they are the betting favorite. I'm a little like @Suchomel in that I'm a little torn over what to think about UT's last minute push.
... Isaiah Hookfin: Long thought to be a Longhorn-commitment-in-waiting, Baylor has swooped in late and seemingly made things very cloudy. I'm still going for Texas to win out ... for now.
... Jalen Catalon: Deep down, I think the combination of a long-time lean to Arkansas, along with an incredibly deep set of young defensive backs already on campus in Austin will be the difference. Hell, the whole reason for picking Arkansas would be based on early playing time and surely he knows the names of the freshmen defensive backs on the Texas roster that would potentially block any and all early playing time.
No. 4 - Are five-stars in Texas overrated?
Out of curiosity, I put together a list of the last 25 players (not including the Class of 2019) from the state of Texas that were awarded five-star status by Rivals.com.
* Caden Sterns (2018) - Freshman All-American in 2018 and first-team All-Big 12.
* Jaylen Waddle (2018) - Freshman All-American and SEC Freshman of the Year in 2018.
* Marvin Wilson (2017) - A starter for the Seminoles as a sophomore in 2018, but not yet the level of difference-maker that was expected of him when he was recruited. Will likely be a first-team All-ACC player going into the 2019 season.
* Walker Little (2017) - A two-year starter and a 1st-team All-Pac 12 standout in 2018.
* Baron Browning (2017) - Had a solid sophomore season with the Buckeyes and is expected to carry a much larger role in 2019.
* Jeffrey Okudah (2017) - See Browning. Had a solid sophomore season and will be regarded as one of the top defensive backs in the Big 10 going into his junior season.
* Greg Little (2016) - An All-American in 2018, Little announced that he's headed for the NFL after his junior season and is regarded as a possible top-five pick.
* Erick Fowler (2016) - One of the biggest busts of the decade, as he lasted about five minutes in Austin before transferring.
* Ed Oliver (2016) - A three-time All-American and a projected top-10 pick in the upcoming NFL Draft.
* Soso Jamabo (2015) - Probably the second biggest bust of the decade. Just a role player for the Bruins.
* Malik Jefferson (2015) - An All-American as a junior, Jefferson was a third-round pick in the 2018 NFL Draft.
* Maea Teuhema (2015) - Started as a young player at LSU, but flamed out, was forced to transfer and never emerged as a true next-level player.
* Myles Garrett (2014) - An All-American for the Aggies and the No. 1 overall pick of the 2017 NFL Draft.
* Tony Brown (2014) - Just a solid role player for the Tide throughout his career, but has emerged as an NFL player with the Green Bay Packers this season.
* Mike Mitchell (2013) - One of the biggest busts of the decade. A total non-factor as a college player.
* A'Shawn Robinson (2013) - An All-American with the Tide and a first-round draft pick by the Detroit Lions.
* Mario Edwards (2012) - A two-time All-ACC player that was a second-round pick in the NFL Draft by the Oakland Raiders. Currently playing with the Giants.
* Johnathan Gray (2012) - A solid running back for the Longhorns, but a player that dealt with injuries and was never a star in college.
* Trey Williams (2012) - Had a solid career with the Aggies, but turned pro following his junior season. Had a cup of coffee in the NFL, but never found a true home.
* Malcom Brown (2012) - An All-American for the Longhorns and a first-round pick by the New England Patriots.
* Malcolm Brown (2011) - Never emerged as a star, but had a very good college career and has carved out a career for himself in the NFL.
* Trey Metoyer (2011) - Made the all-hands team in college for all the wrong reasons. A total bust.
* Brandon Williams (2011) - Bounced around a little in college, but was eventually moved to cornerback, where he emerged as a third-round pick in the NFL Draft. Currently with the Arizona Cardinals.
* Jackson Jeffcoat (2010) - A Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year winner, who struggled with injuries. Played in the NFL for a few seasons and is currently playing in the CFL.
* Lache Seastrunk (2010) - A difference-maker for Baylor who turned pro early and never found a home in the NFL, despite playing on a number of practice squads. Currently playing in the CFL.
Overall, there's twice as many NFL hits as there are busts. Nothing earth-shattering, but it's always interesting to look back. It shows why recruiting the elite prospects matters so much.
No. 5 – BUY or SELL …
BUY or SELL: Texas has three commits that will be immediate impact players next year?
(Buy) Pretty easy number to hit in my mind. Defensive end Jacoby Jones, wide receiver Jake Smith and linebacker De'Gabriel Floyd are the obvious names that stand out in my mind, but every other defensive lineman and linebacker in this class has a chance to play early because of available positions on the two-deep. Mix in Cuero athlete Jordan Whittington, tight end Braydon Liebrock and a few others, and you've got a hell of a lot higher number than three.
BUY or SELL: In the long run - or maybe even the short run - Tom Herman will prove to be a better recruiter than Mack Brown?
(Sell) Mack Brown is the greatest recruiter in the history of college football as far as I'm concerned.
BUY or SELL: Shane Buechele transfers at the end of the year?
(Buy) I think most kids in his situation would look elsewhere when this writing is on the wall, as it is here in Austin. Keep an eye on Arkansas and SMU.
BUY or SELL: We make the Big Dance and Shaka is here next year?
(Buy) This is a very flimsy buy on my part, but you've left me a very low bar to clear.
BUY or SELL: The best Texas running back next season is not even on campus yet?
(Sell) K-e-o-n-t-a-y I-n-g-r-a-m. Barring injuries, I think he's going to be a 1,200-yard back next season.
BUY or SELL: The Texas overall team QB rating next year is higher than Oklahoma's?
(Buy) I'll take the bird in the hand (Ehlinger as a junior) vs. whatever Oklahoma has in the bush.
BUY or SELL: Texas lands a top-5 class?
(Sell) I just don't see the closing finish being in the cards.
BUY or SELL: The ticket city podcast team gives Anwar props for picking the tight end position (preseason) as the strongest position on offense?
(Sell) In what world is Andrew Beck's production at tight end rated higher than the production of Lil'Jordan Humphrey, Collin Johnson and Devin Duvernay at wide receiver? With all due respect to Anwar, I was right six months ago and I'm still right today.
BUY or SELL: Santa Claus is really a hot chick?
(Buy) It is in my household. Old dudes dressed up in red are overrated.
No. 6 - The question I have for Shaka after Saturday night ...
When is Drayton Whiteside moving into the starting line-up?
No. 7 - The evil Dallas Cowboys showed up in Indianapolis ...
Can we just pretend that Sunday didn't happen?
It's not that the Cowboys didn't have a loss in them after winning five-straight games, but what happened on Sunday was demoralizing in all the wrong ways.
Dallas was barely competitive on a day when it could have clinched the NFC East with a win.
Dak was bad. Amari was a non-factor as a consequence. The defense got pushed around. Even Zeke was mortal and by far and away the second best running back on the field.
It's the kind of game from which you just have to move on. Burn the film. There will be bigger fish to fry in the coming weeks.
Still, Sunday was a reminder that the Cowboys have come a long way since week eight, but the climb to the top of the NFC will likely include multiple road games that will be far more difficult than the encounter they endured indoors against the second-best team in the AFC South.
That's not be being negative, that's me keeping it 100.
No. 8 – Eternal Randomness of the Spotty Sports Mind …
... The Texans are better than the Cowboys because DeShaun Watson is better than Dak Prescott.
... Poona Ford should have not only been drafted, but he probably should have been a first-round pick.
... I love me some Aaron Rodgers, but he looks like a dude that would rather be anywhere else than playing football for this Packers team.
... Kyle Shanahan can coach some football. Damn, he's good.
... My fantasy team really needed more from Saquan Barkley this weekend. Good grief.
... Current NBA MVP leaderboard: 1) LeBron James 2) Joel Embiid 3) Giannis Antetokounmpo 4) Steph Curry 5) Kawhi Leonard
... Christian Pulisic to Chelsea? I'm not sure what I think about that move. I still think the perfect coach for him is Jurgen Klopp, but perhaps the timing is just impossible for him to end up in red.
... Manchester United had an ass-kicking coming from Liverpool for more than a year now and it was finally delivered on Sunday when the current Premier League leaders outclassed their counterparts in every way a team can be outclassed on the pitch. Don't take my word for it, just listen to Jose.
No. 9 - The List: Top 10 Movies I've seen from 2018 ...
We're still a couple of months away from the Oscars and there are still a number of acclaimed movies that I haven't yet seen, but here's my top 10 list at the moment.
I have to admit that I kind of feel like it's been a weak year for films. Outside of one incredible movie and another great rom-com, I'm not sure I've seen another movie this year that I would rank as truly Academy Award nomination worthy.
I'm hopeful the movies coming out in the next couple of weeks change my opinion.
1. A Star is Born
2. Crazy Rich Asians
3. Green Book
4. First Man
5. Black Panther
6. BlacKkKlansman
7. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
8. A Quiet Place
9. Creed II
10. Bohemian Rhapsody
No. 10 – And Finally ...
I know that many of you have already seen this article over the weekend, but it's probably touched me more than anything else I read all weekend and I wanted to share it for those that missed it.
Rest in peace, Lin Wang. We could all use more friends like this.
About time Whiteside got some love on OB. That was fun to watch. I have not seen any of our guards do what he did behind the arc creating his own shot like that...let him play some more.
