Photo via Hookem.com
At the risk of causing rioting in the streets, anger from those that believe any conversation of its kind is the equivalent of yelling the word “fire” in a crowded theater or potentially both, I’m going to continue a discussion in this column that will make some of you spit at your screen.
I’m talking Texas quarterbacks.
More specifically, the point of this column is to identify the needs of the Texas program at the most important position in college football. Some of the information in this section is going to contain historical data that could induce vomiting. Some of the information in this section is going to contain some very arbitrary numbers that might make your head explode.
You’ve been warned.
If you’re sticking around, let me begin things by making a confession. Try as I might, it’s pretty difficult to pinpoint the kind of exact metric that represents the kind of definitive statistical marker I’m searching to create that would represent a finish line of sorts in this discussion. The offensive game in college football has changed by leaps and bounds in the last dozen years or so to such a degree that it makes digging up historical passing game data from the last 25 years a complete waste of time.
For instance, James Brown led Texas to the last SWC title in 1995 with a 126.5 passer efficiency rating, which would have rated 70th in the nation this past season, yet few would suggest that the 1995 version of Brown wouldn’t be able to lead a Texas football team to nine or 10 wins in 2017 if surrounded by capable talent. While I’ve dug up more than 30 years of data, the reality is that the changing dynamics of the sport limit the amount of useful data to about 15 years.
Plus, it must be noted that I’m about to create a column based somewhat on a stat (college passing efficiency) that none us know how to explain in normal conversation. Still, it was important for me to find a number that we could point to as a defining measuring stick inside this discussion because the number alone doesn’t contain any inherent bias.
The number I selected that becomes a critical point in this discussion is 140.0.
Last season, an efficiency rating of 140.0 would have ranked 41st in the nation, while a 150.0 rating would have ranked 23rd, a 160.0 rating would have ranked 10th and a 170.0 rating would have ranked just outside the top five. While the numbers can change from year to year, these numbers should provide a very basic snapshot of what represents pretty good vs. elite at the quarterback position. In my mind, a 140.0 rating in the modern age of college football offense represents approximately the minimum bar of success for slightly above average quarterback play in the passing game.
Since 2010, here’s a look at both UT's primary starting quarterback rating and the overall team quarterback rating, along with the team’s final record.
2016: 136.0/134.4 (5-7)
2015: 126.1/120.5 (5-7)
2014: 116.5/116.2 (6-7)
2013: 109.3/117-7 (8-5)
2012: 153.3/154.4 (9-4)
2011: 131.9/122.1 (8-5)
2010: 111.0/111.2 (5-7)
In the last seven years, only the 2012 version of David Ash has been able to clear the 140.0 bar for an entire season, which also just happens to be the only nine-win season during this time span for the Texas program.
What’s interesting about this note is that it goes hand in hand with the supporting data from 2002-2016, which shows that in the nine seasons in which the Longhorns won nine or more games, the quarterback play posted a 140+ rating in seven of them. The two outliers?
2007: (139.2) Colt McCoy’s worst season was just an eyelash below the mark in what was a very uneven season.
2004: (128.4) Vince Young’s superhuman running skills more than overcompensated for his passing deficiencies.
Although it has taken me awhile to get there, I hope I’ve created a picture that safely paints the 140.0 rating as a fairly safe data point that establishes a minimum bar for success in the modern passing game inside college football, at least as it relates to the Texas program. If anyone out there feel like I’ve been unfair in choosing this admittedly arbitrary number as a baseline for success… my apologies (I tried).
As we bring the discussion forward to the upcoming 2017 season, the Longhorns return second-year sophomore starter Shane Buechele, who just finished his freshman season with a 136.0 rating, which on the surface seems to indicate that he’s on the cusp of giving the Longhorns enough at the quarterback position to lead the team into the nine-win range with its quarterback play.
Yet, if you dig a little deeper, you’ll find that the quarterback position is probably more of a question mark than peripheral numbers suggest. It’s possible that Buechele was so good in his first two starts against Notre Dame (169.7 game rating) and UTEP (206.3 game rating!) that we just didn’t pay enough attention to the fact that the next 10 games were rarely like the first two.
Some Buechele numbers from the final 10 games of last season…
* Buechele only posted a 140.0 game rating in three of his final 10 games (146.0 vs Iowa State, 176.0 at Kansas State and 195.4 vs. Baylor), which means that Buechele only cleared the 140.0 rating in five of 12 games, posting a 4-1 record in those five games.
* While he posted a 136.0 rating for the entire season, Buechele posted a 127.8 rating in the final 10 games of the season, which is lower than the rating Tyrone Swoopes posted in the first 11 games of the 2014 season.
* Buechele completed only 58.6 completion percentage and a 15/10 touchdown-to-interception ratio.
If you’re thinking that I’m trying to take a shot at Buechele by pointing these facts out, you’re sorely mistaken. As I’ve said repeatedly, I think he has all-Big 12 and championship upside. On top of that, I’ve never heard anyone say a bad thing about the young man and I ranked him as the No.10 prospect in the state in my 2016 rankings.
Considering how stagnant business gets when the program goes through a seven-season rut, I’d be borderline close to selling my soul to the sports gods if it meant Buechele led Texas to the type of promised land that gets a jersey number retired.
No, the point of this entire section is to point out that while Buechele absolutely represented improvement as a true freshman against almost everything Texas had at the position in the last seven years, there are still very real steps that he needs to take before we can safely call Buechele an above-average starting quarterback at this level.
First and foremost, it’s the game-in and game-out consistency that Buechele needs to improve on. It’s not a matter of ability because he displayed that at an above-average level in five games last season, which witnessed Texas win four of them. However, he can’t be a box of chocolates, going from good to bad in yo-yo fashion over a 12-game season.
If you told me right now that Buechele won't post a single 180 game-rating this season, but never goes under a 140 game-rating, I’d suggest that the Longhorns will be very close to nine wins this season. Hell, they won 80-percent of the games in which he went beyond 140 on a 5-7 team.
What’s funny is that I’ve been discussing the talent levels/upside between Buechele and true freshman Sam Ehlinger in the last week and wondering how the staff’s view of short-and long-term projections might impact snap distribution this season, but the better question might involve which quarterback can most consistently play at a 140.0+ level. You can beat Iowa State by three touchdowns with 146.0 play, but you can’t beat TCU if the yo-yo drops down to 82.9.
Making the conversation even more interesting is that when this same kind of discussion was taking place in the Mack Brown era with regards to the Major Applewhite/Chris Simms debate, Tom Herman was on the staff that (for better or worse) made the decision to gamble on the idea of long-term upside (Simms) over short-term consistency. If the camp that believes that Ehlinger has the higher long-term upside is correct, we could be looking at a similar type decision that will need to be made, without one of the player’s having a cult in support of him at the time (I think), of course.
But, that’s another column for another time.
For now, I just want to get everyone on the same page as it relates to the reality of the position after the 2016 season and where it needs to go if the Longhorns want to win nine games in 2017.
No. 2 – Speaking of Applewhite/Simms, did we overrate both of them?...
Perhaps the biggest example of the stark change in the college passing efficiency numbers between the current era of offense and the one that preceded it can be seen in looking at the numbers produced by Applewhite and Simms from 2000-02.
Consider the starting quarterback/overall team passing efficiency numbers from 2003-09:
2003: 148.7/141.7 (10-3)
2004: 128.4/124.8 (12-1)
2005: 164.0/160.9 (13-0)
2006: 161.8/155.9 (10-3)
2007: 139.2/135.9 (10-3)
2008: 175.8/175.05 (12-1)
2009: 147.4/138.4 (13-1)
Now take a look at the same numbers from 1999-2001:
1999: 129.4/128.3 (9-5)
2000: 135.91/138.3 (9-3)
2001: 133.5/136.1 (11-2)
While the current offensive systems were in their infancy stages in 2001, there’s no way to get around the fact that those numbers didn’t rank among the leaders in college football in 2002 or 2017.
In Major’s best season (1998), he ranked 16th nationally in passing efficiency, but never came close to that in the next three seasons, while Simms’ best season (2002) had him ranked 14th nationally, only to never approach that number in any of his previous three seasons.
Meanwhile, the very same Chance Mock that is remembered as the guy that lost his job to Vince Young posted a higher rating in the first season that both were removed from the roster (148.7) than either Applewhite/Simms ever produced in their eight combined seasons of play. Say what you want about Mock, but neither of those two ever had an 8:1 TD-to-INT ratio in a single season.
While I don’t think there are many people walking around calling either player a great college quarterback, isn’t the reality that four years of all-time fuss was being made over players who were merely pretty good most of the time and very good some of the time?
No. 3– Projecting scholarship numbers...
If you combine the 11 members of the senior class with two years of average attrition (8.4 was the average per year from 2005-2014), the Longhorns should have room for a full class by the time August of 2018 rolls around. For those wondering, here’s how I expect the numbers in the 2018 recruiting class to look.
QB (1 or 2), RB (2), WR (4 or 5), TE (2), OL (3 or 4), DL (3 or 4), LB (2 or 3), DB (3 or 4) and ST (0)
On the low end or the numbers, we’re talking a 20-man class and the high end we’re maxing the numbers.
I’ll make a point of updating the historical attrition breakdown that I created in 2014 next week so that it includes the last two seasons.
No. 4 – Buy or sell …
BUY or SELL: The Texas defense will be higher ranked, statistically, than the offense at the end of 2017 season?
(Sell) In general, I’d say that playing in the Big 12 (and playing USC on the road to boot) will typically make it hard for a team’s defense to outrank its offense, unless you’re not very good on offense. After finishing 16th in total offense a year ago, I expect Texas to have a Top 25-level offensive unit this season.
BUY or SELL: Toneil Carter will be the "Collin Johnson Golden Boy" by getting all the praise and accolades from the media in this spring's practices?
(Buy) Is there any doubt that we, the media, will lose our collective minds with hyperbole over anything that Carter does in the spring? I’d suggest that Sam Ehlinger is also a candidate for this award, which could probably be named after a dozen other guys that came before Johnson.
BUY or SELL: Tom Herman has pushed the right buttons with his staff hires?
(Buy) It’s fair to wonder about what Texas has on its hands with Tim Beck, the Casey Horny hire was miscalculated and you can question whether there’s enough legitimate war daddy recruiters on the staff. But I would probably contend that the overwhelming number of his hires are quite impressive upon inspection. I love me some Todd Orlando. The rest of the assistants all seem to have at least one incredibly valuable skill. The off-the-field hires have immediately improved the Texas football experience on social media for its fans and recruits.
BUY or SELL: Shane Buechele plays well enough to enable Sam Ehlinger to redshirt in 2017?
(Sell) There’s just not enough depth in the program to expect that Ehlinger will redshirt, regardless of how well Buechele plays. It’s one of the reasons you’d have to think the Texas coaching staff will keep its eyes and ears peeled for a sleeper transfer that can improve the depth in some capacity.
BUY or SELL: Malik Jefferson is an All-American at some point in his career?
(Buy) I’m all-in on Jefferson having a huge breakout season in 2017. I think Todd Orlando is going to love, not like, him.
BUY or SELL: Due to the current state of the program and perceived ceilings for each player, Buechele/Ehlinger has the potential to be the next great debate in the same vein as Major/Simms?
(Buy) All college fan bases love a good quarterback debate, but this fan base loves quarterback debates.
BUY OR SELL: The field goal kicker this year will have higher than an 80% accuracy rating at the end of the season?
(Sell) There’s zero reason to give that kind of benefit of the doubt at this point.
BUY or SELL: Tom Herman's administration had more leaks than the Trump administration?
(Sell) I think I’ve seen mostly a quiet, disciplined organization through the first few months. Herman seems to be in complete control of his staff.
BUY or SELL: DJ Monroe was the most underutilized talent to set foot on the 40?
(Sell) I’m going to go with Earl Thomas. The Longhorns had a NFL Hall of Fame player on its hands and it only got two seasons out of him, despite the fact that the 2007 team was practically begging for his presence after the departure of Michael Griffin following the 2006 season.
BUY OR SELL: Austin is too crowded and become a victim of its own success?
(Sell) You’ll forgive me if I find this to be crazy talk. Is there a lot of traffic and people? Without question. Does that somehow change the fact that the city is the crowned jewel of our state? Get out of here with that silliness.
It’s a highly educated, open-minded city. The music scene remains vibrant. The food scene improves yearly. Lake Travis is full, which means in October you can sail your boat in the day and watch the Longhorns along with 100,000 others at night. Along with its quest to forever remain weirder than the rest, at the core of Austin’s soul is one of the largest undergrad bases of any major city in the country, which forever keeps the town young and fresh. On top of that, it’s a great place to raise a family. As long as I can still get a sandwich from Avenue B Grocery or hear Toni Price at The Continental Club or go for a walk along Town Lake, I won’t hear any talk of Austin being a victim of its own success.
BUY or SELL: You'll die as the owner of OB?
(Buy) I think so. I suppose someone could make me an offer I couldn’t refuse one day, but it’s hard for me to imagine the site not being a super component of my life. It’s a dream job.
BUY or SELL: You will keep changing your avatar to further confuse us all? Your inability to stick to an avatar is caused by an early midlife crisis?
(Double sell) The weird angst that some feel when I change avatars is sometimes a slight bonus, but it really just has to do with me enjoying the ability to change things up based on my mood or whims. My dream is that eventually all of you will sit around waiting for my next change with bated breath!
No. 5 – The hidden ball trick...
Yes, the Texas men’s basketball team played and lost in Stillwater this weekend, featuring shortcomings that have been on display since November.
Nothing took place that you haven’t seen before.
Therefore, you’ll have to forgive me if I don’t write another word about the 84-71 loss. Instead, I’m going to briefly focus on the one thing that I kept thinking about while watching the game - Jericho Sims’ one-game highlights.
From the moment Dustin McComas posted them on Orangebloods on Friday, I’ve been thinking about them non-stop because I’m pretty sure his film ranks near the top of Texas signee I’ve ever seen in terms of making me want to see more of him.
So, I started to think about it… in the last 20 years, which players produced the most exciting highlight reels coming out of high school. I’m not talking about the five best players Texas has signed, I’m talking about the five most exciting highlight films.
Here’s my list
1. Kevin Durant (It was clear to me the first time I saw Durant that we were watching something we’d never seen before).
2. T.J. Ford (Not as flashy as the rest of the list, but he oozed greatness)
3. Avery Bradley (Might be a spot or two low on the list).
4. Myles Turner (You could see future NBA-badassness all over him.)
5. Luke Axtell (Kind of an early poor man’s version of Durant in high school. If all you did was look at his high school highlights, you’d have thought a future NBA star was being born.)
No. 6 – Karen Aston’s program takes a monumental step…
The Baylor issue for the Texas women’s program can’t be ignored.
After 14 straight defeats that stretched back to the Gail Goestenkors era in 2010, it was hard to quantify the progress that Aston’s program has made in the last five seasons because the shadow of main tormentor of this decade loomed an hour and a half away in a town few want to mention these days.
Every time the (Lady) Longhorns were seemingly on the brink of joining the national elite, Kim Mulkey’s program always seemed to be around to knock them back down a peg or two.
Until last Monday night.
On a night when I was expecting the No. 2 Bears to put Aston’s program in check, the Longhorns not only beat the Bears on their own floor, but the visuals of the night were quite eye-catching. I don’t have any idea what will happen when the two means meet in Austin next Monday night, but what happened on Monday night was no accident.
Texas wasn’t just better, but they were clearly better in withstanding one final Hail Mary rally to win 85-79. For a program that has made slow and steady progress over Aston’s first four seasons, it’s not a stretch to say that this win is the defining moment of her career. There’s still much work to be done, but it would be criminal not to give a tip of the cap to a coach and program that is three wins away from at least a share of the Big 12 title, which hasn’t happened for the Texas program since 2004.
It hasn’t been a quick or easy rebuild, but what we’re witnessing is a successful rebuild.
Perhaps all of the new coaches on the men’s side of things should take some notes.
No. 7 – Bustin’ a cap in OKC’s backside …
Forget about the fact that Golden State is a perfect 3-0 against Team Petty this season.
Forget about the fact that Kevin Durant has dropped 34, 39 and 40 points on his ex-teammates in those three wins.
Forget about the fact that Durant currently plays on a historically good team.
All that matters today is that after this happened…
This happened…
In one of the truly just moments in recent sports memory, Durant took all of the “I’m coming” remarks, the cupcake chants and the photographer shirts that the Island of Misfit Pettiness has offered him since departing on the first boat out of town, and he collectively shoved it in everyone’s face with a three-point shot taken from Tulsa.
Game. Cupcakes.
No. 8 – He’s baaaack …
No. 9 – Eternal Randomness of the Spotty Sports Mind …
… Get well, Bill Snyder.
… If you’re Myles Garrett and you don’t want to play for the Browns or live in Cleveland, I think you’ve got to do everything within your means to keep them from drafting you, even if it means being adopted by Archie Manning.
… Brandon Phillips in a Braves uniform is going to take some time to get used to.
… Dear God, please let Josh Jackson and Malik Monk land with the Sixers via the Lakers pick and their own. Please.
… It would appear that I didn’t miss a single thing of significance from UFC208. Thought so. That card was so poorly structured that it makes me think that it served as a trial balloon by the UFC to find out how much of its core audience will pay for ANYTHING served its way in a post-Rousey world. If not that, what on earth was the point of that card?
… It’s been a long start to 2017, but Liverpool picked up a potential season-saving win over Tottenham and all I can hope for is that it serves as a stabilizing benchmark that the team can use to push for a Champions League spot. One of the positives about the upcoming set of fixtures for the Reds is that it has 13 wins, six draws and only three losses under Jurgen Klopp when the team has 4+ days of rest between games. If they can continue that pace, they’ll finish in the top four.
… I heart Sadio Mane.
… Two months ago, Swansea was being talked about as one of the worst teams in the history of the EPL. Two months later, the team is barely outside of the relegation area. What a turnaround.
… Leicester City is essentially the story of when Cinderella comes home from the ball after midnight and never hears from the prince again, only to find herself stuck in a loveless life and surrounded by evil women, jealous of her looks. Good times.
No. 10 - And finally …
One of the most important things the Orangebloods community will do all year is ongoing with the site’s contribution to the Haruka Weiser Memorial.
Through the grace of her family, we’ve been given a chance to help honor her memory, which among other things might include a bench near the Drama building in her name.
It means a lot that we gained approval to be a part of remembering Weiser. If nothing else, I’d love for us to raise enough money to symbolically pay for the bench that we all hope exists one day in her memory. We're about halfway to our goal of $5,500, but I know we're capable of so much more.
If everyone that reads this column were to donate $10, we could donate upwards of $150,000.
Let’s do some good together.
Link to donate.
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