Ketch's 10 Thoughts From the Weekend (What the UT QB situation really looks like...)

[Steg]

Somewhat related question(s): How does Merrick, or an athletic DT JUCO transfer factor in? Any chance Heard plays QB on a more than gimmicky basis?

I saw some posts on attrition, who are somewhat likely to go candidates?

I favor giving Heard a shot at QB for at least the first 2 weeks of the spring. We only saw him in an abortion of an offense with a temporary OC and a QB coach that did not like him under a total staff clusterf***. Heard was a redshirt freshman with no playing experience at all. We were starting 3 bad OL and 2 true frosh, JGray was starting in front of D'Onta, WR threats were rare...it was not a recipe for success. He may be a horrible QB, but I don't like drawing sweeping conclusions from such a flawed data source. We aren't used to it around here, but players do develop and improve in programs all around the country.

He is now a redshirt JR with lots of playing experience at both QB and WR. Playing WR can aid a QB's understanding of coverages, windows, anticipation, etc. Southlake Carroll had almost all of their QBs playing slot WR as sophomores during their 79-1 run - Dodge, Wasson, Daniel. Now we have an AA LT and a solid/good OL, multiple talented and experienced WRs, and a coherent offensive system with a QB whisperer as the head coach.

The fact is he provides much more value to the Texas Longhorns as a quality backup QB than he does a quality WR rotating in with 3-4 other WRs. He could still learn several WR packages and be utilized there as well. For the record, I am from Missouri in regards to Heard being a quality backup QB, but it would be best for the Texas Longhorns.


I don't think it is good to discuss attrition candidates in a public forum. Look at the deepest parts of the depth chart (like WR where Oliver just left) and start there.

 

[Ketchum]

Was Applewhite standing on a stool in that picture? Serious question.

Ash was on his way to being a damn fine QB.

I agree with others that think adding other Power 5 true freshmen QBRs, and their progression throughout their careers, would help paint a more complete picture.

Buechele was limited by his injuries, his OC's playcalling, his coaching staff, his defense, his being a freshman, Burt's regression & his own talent limitations, and was still pretty damn good for a true freshman on a bad team.

In a perfect world, Heard has a strong spring as a QB and is the solid backup, Buechele makes great progress projecting to be an all conference type starter allowing Sam to redshirt. This gains separation between Sam and Buechele, get's Sam healthy and more prepared for the college game. However, if Sam shows to simply be the best QB, then start him immediately. Recent history has shown that redshirting, when possible, is still the best route for great QBs. VY, Colt, Manziel, Boykin, Mariota, Winston, Luck, etc., etc. It isn't necessary to redshirt, but preferable, especially if you have a guy at QB who is solid and could be great.

a. He was standing on a stool provided by Greg Davis, who gave it to him in exchange for cookies.

b. Ash's sophomore season is greatly underappreciated when put into proper context.

c. I just think we've overcooked the grits on what he truly did as a freshman. I think he has a ton of upside and a possible great future, but the quality performances were too few and too scattered.

d. One day Texas will be in a world when it can redshirt its quarterbacks. Maybe as soon as 2018.

 

[Steg]

a. He was standing on a stool provided by Greg Davis, who gave it to him in exchange for cookies.

Their similar stature doesn't stand out as odd when you look at that picture?

 

[Ketchum]

I don't remember a supposed #1 receiver having so many drops (Burt) in recent memory. Who was Ash's #1? Davis/Shipley? They were much more reliable. Colt had Nate Jones/Quan, same story there.

All quarterbacks have drops.

It's just my opinion, but I think there has to be some realism about Buechele's first season because the false narrative could create false hope and projections for 2016.

 

[Ketchum]

Their similar stature doesn't stand out as odd when you look at that picture?

They couldn't have Simms looking like Ivan Drago standing next to Rocky.

 

[Steg]

They couldn't have Simms looking like Ivan Drago standing next to Rocky.

Mack was so damn tone deaf on that whole situation. You don't take pictures and PROMOTE a motherfu***** QB controversy for the love of God!

 

[Ketchum]

Mack was so damn tone deaf on that whole situation. You don't take pictures and PROMOTE a motherfu***** QB controversy for the love of God!

 

[McGuapo]

Man, that UFC card was a steaming pile of shit. I'm a nerd, but still didn't buy it, so if that was an experiment, it failed, IMO....and when you consider how surly Dana was about it afterwards, I think we know the answer to how that card played. Need to find the PPV numbers. Had to be reeeeally low.

 

[Ketchum]

Man, that UFC card was a steaming pile of shit. I'm a nerd, but still didn't buy it, so if that was an experiment, it failed, IMO....and when you consider how surly Dana was about it afterwards, I think we know the answer to how that card played. Need to find the PPV numbers. Had to be reeeeally low.

Hope that thing ends up being closer 225K buys than 500K, otherwise there incentive to do it again.

 

[txfight]

Was Applewhite standing on a stool in that picture? Serious question.

Ash was on his way to being a damn fine QB.

I agree with others that think adding other Power 5 true freshmen QBRs, and their progression throughout their careers, would help paint a more complete picture.

Buechele was limited by his injuries, his OC's playcalling, his coaching staff, his defense, his being a freshman, Burt's regression & his own talent limitations, and was still pretty damn good for a true freshman on a bad team.

In a perfect world, Heard has a strong spring as a QB and is the solid backup, Buechele makes great progress projecting to be an all conference type starter allowing Sam to redshirt. This gains separation between Sam and Buechele, get's Sam healthy and more prepared for the college game. However, if Sam shows to simply be the best QB, then start him immediately. Recent history has shown that redshirting, when possible, is still the best route for great QBs. VY, Colt, Manziel, Boykin, Mariota, Winston, Luck, etc., etc. It isn't necessary to redshirt, but preferable, especially if you have a guy at QB who is solid and could be great.

I love this post so much I want to buy it dinner and get it a card tomorrow.
Spot on about Ash and Buechele in my humblest of opinions.

 

[txfight]

...

The award for best tagline goes to... McGuapo with "If life gives you lemons, you should make lemonade...and then find someone who life has given vodka, and have a party."

Please limit your acceptance speech to 15 seconds and don't get all political FFS.

 

[txfight]

They couldn't have Simms looking like Ivan Drago standing next to Rocky.

Simms next to Applewhite was funny to see the body type difference but I remember going to a practice at SMU for the bowl game in Dallas and seeing Applewhite and Adam Dunn throwing passes side by side. That guy could have been Tebow before Tebow was Tebow. Would have been fun to see what would have happened if he beat out Applewhite when Walton got hurt.

I'd be curious to know where all those guys were ranked as recruits coming out of HS. Walton, Mock, Dunn, Brown... who was the last guy to beat OU 4 years in a row? Him too.

 

[Steg]

I love this post so much I want to buy it dinner and get it a card tomorrow.
Spot on about Ash and Buechele in my humblest of opinions.

I accept the dinner invitation if your avatar is in attendance.

 

[TexasSwagger]

I accept the dinner invitation if your avatar is in attendance.

I'm available to round out a 4 top if necessary

 

[nicole9849]

Donated in her memory.

 

[TexasSwagger]

All quarterbacks have drops.

It's just my opinion, but I think there has to be some realism about Buechele's first season because the false narrative could create false hope and projections for 2016.

No false narrative/hope here, just the obvious - average quarterback play was a VAST improvement over several prior years of putrid play. Buechele isn't a plus player yet but can definitely see potential. My point was is is "top flight" receivers let him down in some memorable spots.

 

[EastTexasLonghorn]

Ouch! I saw repeated posts, some from mods, during the season suggesting the possibility. If all were wrong, that's fine. I guess I missed the definitive conclusion/post that injury was much ado about nothing.

your post was dead on. it just doesn't fit his narrative, so he'll disregard it now. his agenda to convince people that buechele was a "pretty average" qb last season, regardless of all the facts people dumped on him in the war room and other pinned thread, is in full spin mode. the kid dealt with and played through injuries most of the season and if someone felt like taking the time, you can find plenty of threads by mods from the season that talk about it. he got injured during either okie st or oklahoma and after that you could tell he was having problems throwing the deep ball and medium passes the rest of the year. most people on this board know buechele performed well above average last season.. especially when you factor in him being a true freshman and the shitty play calling. you don't even have to mention him playing through injury as those other two are enough to have limited him. there's no reason to continue to bring logic or facts to this though as everyone knows ketchum isn't gonna admit being wrong about anything. it sells more subs to create a quarterback controversy anyway.. amirite?

 

[EastTexasLonghorn]

Sure you have. You've see 100% more substance than Sam at the collegiate level and according to your own data, the QB play is on a trajectory not enjoyed by UT in nearly a decade. Plus, the kid was a True Freshman.

My goodness, man. Do you really not think an extra year in the weight room and a playbook with more than 5 plays won't help the kid? Quit stepping on the kids throat and give the bias a rest.

And stop shaking your head right now. You ARE going out of your way to be pro-Ehlinger.

this is so dead on.

 

[Baguette]

a. Was the offensive line crappy? I'm not sure that's what Alex's grading would suggest. Was it great? No. Was it crappy? Not if judges by the crappy standards of 2014 and in previous seasons.

b. As I've discussed, it's fair to point to Gilbert on some of this, but was Gilbert out of his depths or protecting a flawed player? Hard to 100-percent certify either way or in the middle.

c. Shane played with the best running back in the country, a decent line (IMO), really good skill players and a head coach in over his head.

d. I disagree his receiver's sucked. Some of those receivers made below average performances look much better with their runs after catches. Did they let him down on occasion? Yes. Did they sometimes make great plays? Yes.

e. "Gross handicapps"?

I think it's laughable to suggest I created a column that lacked context. There's extended context from beginning to end. There's a reason why we're 200 replies into this thread and no one has directly disputed any of the data in it.

Sorry for going numbers nerd (not sorry).

Not disputing your data. Without data/stats the discussion becomes too subjective and biased. I get it. I appreciate the hard work you put into that {and Alex]. I'm just saying that going by data alone doesn't necessarily make Shane a mediocre QB, particularly if you judge him against other freshmen in recent history
Longhorns will be a significantly better team in 17, and so will Shane. On that I think we can all agree.

 

[EastTexasLonghorn]

Riiiight. It's my bias that is clearly evident in this discussion...

it's clearly evident to everyone, but you. why would you see it though? your intention is to stir controversy and you've also dug in too deep to admit you are wrong. you never do that even when you aren't holding a shovel.

 

[Ketchum]

Simms next to Applewhite was funny to see the body type difference but I remember going to a practice at SMU for the bowl game in Dallas and seeing Applewhite and Adam Dunn throwing passes side by side. That guy could have been Tebow before Tebow was Tebow. Would have been fun to see what would have happened if he beat out Applewhite when Walton got hurt.

I'd be curious to know where all those guys were ranked as recruits coming out of HS. Walton, Mock, Dunn, Brown... who was the last guy to beat OU 4 years in a row? Him too.

Walton - Low four star type.
Brown - Five star type (top five prospect in Texas)
Dunn - solid Four star type
Mock - High four star.

 

[Ketchum]

Donated in her memory.

Thank you.

 

[Ketchum]

No false narrative/hope here, just the obvious - average quarterback play was a VAST improvement over several prior years of putrid play. Buechele isn't a plus player yet but can definitely see potential. My point was is is "top flight" receivers let him down in some memorable spots.

I would only say they turned around and picked him up in other spots, but by and large, we're in agreement.

 

[Ketchum]

your post was dead on. it just doesn't fit his narrative, so he'll disregard it now. his agenda to convince people that buechele was a "pretty average" qb last season, regardless of all the facts people dumped on him in the war room and other pinned thread, is in full spin mode. the kid dealt with and played through injuries most of the season and if someone felt like taking the time, you can find plenty of threads by mods from the season that talk about it. he got injured during either okie st or oklahoma and after that you could tell he was having problems throwing the deep ball and medium passes the rest of the year. most people on this board know buechele performed well above average last season.. especially when you factor in him being a true freshman and the shitty play calling. you don't even have to mention him playing through injury as those other two are enough to have limited him. there's no reason to continue to bring logic or facts to this though as everyone knows ketchum isn't gonna admit being wrong about anything. it sells more subs to create a quarterback controversy anyway.. amirite?

good grief.

 

[Ketchum]

this is so dead on.

Not even close. You've displayed zero rationality in this conversation, while ignoring fact after fact.

 

[Ketchum]

Not disputing your data. Without data/stats the discussion becomes too subjective and biased. I get it. I appreciate the hard work you put into that {and Alex]. I'm just saying that going by data alone doesn't necessarily make Shane a mediocre QB, particularly if you judge him against other freshmen in recent history
Longhorns will be a significantly better team in 17, and so will Shane. On that I think we can all agree.

I only called his play average based on the bar we set for all quarterbacks, not just freshmen.

At no point has it been suggested that he can't or won't do it. The greater point is that more forward progress is needed than a lot of people realize,

 

[Ketchum]

it's clearly evident to everyone, but you. why would you see it though? your intention is to stir controversy and you've also dug in too deep to admit you are wrong. you never do that even when you aren't holding a shovel.

quote a section of the article that displays bias.

I'll hang up and listen.

 

[EastTexasLonghorn]

You've conveniently left out all of the parts of Hurts' game that makes him good, none of which Buechele really brings to the table.

funny.. kinda like you left out the parts of tyrone's season that made his rating a 116 that year, so you could get his rating closer to buechele's rating for the whole season. people tend to do that when it helps conform things to fit their agenda.

 

[Ketchum]

funny.. kinda like you left out the parts of tyrone's season that made his rating a 116 that year, so you could get his rating closer to buechele's rating for the whole season. people tend to do that when it helps conform things to fit their agenda.

lol.

I compared a 10-game sample size vs. a 10-game sample size and was open in acknowledging it in the discussion. There was no effort to deceive. Total transparency.

Oddly, it's you that hasn't acknowledged any of the positive comments made about Buechele i the article, which barely mentions Ehlinger's name.

"If you’re thinking that I’m trying to take a shot at Buechele by pointing these facts out, you’re sorely mistaken. As I’ve said repeatedly, I think he has all-Big 12 and championship upside. On top of that, I’ve never heard anyone say a bad thing about the young man and I ranked him as the No.10 prospect in the state in my 2016 rankings."

 

[EastTexasLonghorn]

quote a section of the article that displays bias.

I'll hang up and listen.

i don't have to point to a section. you calling buechele's performance last season "very average" while ignoring anything anyone says to the contrary confirms bias. i've also seen you mention him being 5-7 last season a lot like he doesn't play on a team and that record falls solely on him. a LOT of those loses last year fall on shitty defense and potato coaching, not shane.

 

[Ketchum]

i don't have to point to a section. you calling buechele's performance last season "very average" while ignoring anything anyone says to the contrary confirms bias.

So, you can't can find a section that you can quote that would display the bias you believe exists?

Fair enough.

 

[meeotch]

Cliffs please ?

 

[EastTexasLonghorn]

lol.

I compared a 10-game sample size vs. a 10-game sample size and was open in acknowledging it in the discussion. There was no effort to deceive. Total transparency.

why cut it to a 10 game sample size? both kids played 12 games in their perspective seasons. you did that for the same reason you did it in the war room discussion. to make their ratings closer. tyrone played in 12 games in that 2014 season and ended it with a rating of 116.5. shane played in 12 games last season and ended it with a rating of 136. that rating put him above jt barrett, davis webb, and trevor mcknight. trevor mcknight is the only one of those 3 that can be referred to as "pretty average". trevor knight was also a senior and shane was a true freshman. he played well enough to be named honorable mention big 12 offensive freshman of the year and to be honored at quarterback on ESPN.com's all-big 12 underclassmen team. he completed 236-of-391 (60.4%) of his passes through the first 12 games of his career for a UT freshmen-record 2,958 passing yards and 21 passing touchdowns beating out redshirt freshman colt mccoy.. who definitely wasn't average.

 

[Ketchum]

Cliffs please ?

which section?

 

[Ketchum]

why cut it to a 10 game sample size? both kids played 12 games in their perspective seasons. you did that for the same reason you did it in the war room discussion. to make their ratings closer. tyrone played in 12 games in that 2014 season and ended it with a rating of 116.5. shane played in 12 games last season and ended it with a rating of 136. that rating put him above jt barrett, davis webb, and trevor mcknight. trevor mcknight is the only one of those 3 that can be referred to as "pretty average". trevor knight was also a senior and shane was a true freshman. he played well enough to be named honorable mention big 12 offensive freshman of the year and to be honored at quarterback on ESPN.com's all-big 12 underclassmen team. he completed 236-of-391 (60.4%) of his passes through the first 12 games of his career for a UT freshmen-record 2,958 passing yards and 21 passing touchdowns beating out redshirt freshman colt mccoy who definitely wasn't average.

Yeah, you're going to have to forgive me if I just bounce from conversation with you on this.

If you can't so much as do me the solid of backing up your claims with evidence when called to do so in favor of perceived injustices that are clearly confirmation biased based, I'm just wasting my time.