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Will Arizona State Score? | Keys to Victory vs. Arizona State

CodyCarpentier

every like is another Jonathon Brooks rushing yard
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Nov 25, 2023
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Keys to Victory - SPONSORED BY OBMEN.NET
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Keys to Victory vs. Arizona State
  • Establish the Run, ALL. GAME. LONG.
    • Texas Offense vs. Ranked Opponents in 2024
      • 48 attempts, 292 yards, 4 touchdowns vs Clemson - Win
      • 50 attempts, 240 yards, 1 touchdown at Texas A&M - Win
      • 30 attempts, 177 yards, 3 touchdowns vs. Oklahoma - Win
      • 32 attempts, 143 yards, 1 touchdown at Michigan - Win
      • 34 attempts, 104 yards at Vanderbilt - Win
      • 28 attempts, 31 yards vs. Georgia (II) - Loss
      • 27 attempts, 29 yards vs. Georgia (I) - Loss
    • Arizona State Defense vs. Ranked Opponents in 2024
      • 25 attempts, 154 yards, 2 touchdowns allowed at Kansas State - Won by 10
      • 33 attempts, 140 yards, 1 touchdown allowed by Utah - Won by 8
      • 32 attempts, 127 yards, 0 touchdowns allowed vs. Iowa State - Won by 26
      • 23 attempts, 94 yards, 2 touchdowns allowed vs. BYU - Won by 5

  • Are we sure Cam Skattebo is better than 2023 Ollie Gordon, Tahj Brooks and Abu Sama?
    • When I think about play styles, Ollie Gordon has always reminded me of a Derrick Henry/Latavius Murray type, being 225-235 lbs and running north and south directly into you. For those that can't recall, the late part of the 2023 season featured some drama around the Iowa State (Jarrod Hufford #54), Texas Tech (Brett Yormark) and Oklahoma State (Ollie Gordon 2,000 yards from scrimmage) games, while Texas out-scored those three teams 132-44 and actualyl beat those team at their own game, averaging 219 rushing yards per game, remember Ollie Gordon, Abu Sama and Tahj Brooks? Texas does, to the tune of 39 attempts and 140 yards combined.
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  • Above you can take a peak behind the curtain on Pro Football Focus at WHERE both Skattebo(2024) and Ollie Gordon(2023) succeed the most, both are elite at forcing missed tackles and created yards after contact. Skattebo leads America with 92 missed tackles forced, sitting 12 ahead of Cincinnati back, Corey Kiner. He is also 2nd in America is total yards after contact with 1,085 of his 1,569 total rushing yards coming after contact.
    • Tahj Brooks, Texas Tech - 96 Missed Tackles Forced (1st in America of 139 qualifiers)
    • Ollie Gordon, Oklahoma State - 950 Yards on Breakaway runs of 15+ yards per (1st in America of 139 qualifiers)
    • Abu Sama, Iowa State - 6.55 Yards after Contact per Attempt (1st in America of 139 qualifiers)

  • HOW Will Arizona State Score?
    • The Arizona State offense has 30 4th down attempts this season, suceeding at just a 53% rate, is the same as Texas who is 15 for 28. Note that Arizona State has run 123 fewer plays than Texas has in 2024.
    • The Longhorns have allowed just 30 opponent drives to enter the Red Zone in 2024, which ranked 2nd in America, while allowing 14 touchdowns, also the 2nd least on the season, behind Ohio State's 12.
    • Couple the previous two thoughts on Arizona States struggles in the kicking game, inefficienies on 4th down and Texas' strength in the Red Zone, I ask myself.. how is Arizona State going to score? What about a deep shot?
      • Texas is 2nd in 2024 with just 32 plays of 20+ yards allowed to opponents, tied with Indiana and 3 behind Sam Houston State.
      • Along the same lines, Arizona State has 65 offensive explosive plays(20+ yards), 19 from Skattebo and 18 coming from their injured star receiver Jordyn Tyson, who is out for the season. Nobody else on the team has more than 6 (Kyson Brown, Back-up RB)
    • So Again I ask, if Cam Skattebo is the ONLY thing you have, How will Arizona State score? The final marker that I end on, of course if you have already squeezed Cam Skattebo like we have watched Pete Kwiatkowski defenses do to these types, during the last few years - is turnovers.
    • Arizona State's has a +1.08 turnover margin on the season, with 15 defensive interceptions (20th) and 7 fumble recoveries (53rd), they are just 23rd in total Turnovers Gained, it's the offensive side that really protects the ball more than anything. With just 3 fumbles lost (5th) and 5 interceptions lost (6th), however that will meet a daunting Lognhorns back-end that has the 3rd most interceptions (22) and is tied for the most turnovers gained (29) in America this season.
    • One more interesting note is that Arizona State, unshockingly is top 20 in the country and No. 1 in the College Football Playoff in Time of Possession. The Sun Devils are 13th, averaging just over 32 minutes of possession per game, that is a full minute and change better than the No. 1 overall seed in the CFP, Oregon.
    • The bottom line is, the Sun Devils will aim to protect the football, control the time of possession and potentially get Quinn Ewers to throw a quick dig route to the right side of the field.. while banking almost their entire existence on Cameron Skattebos success, which isn't a bad thing in theory, unless you are an undersize unit on the offensive and defensive line, giving up between 10-30lbs per player across the board.
Incase you missed it from earlier this season, Coach Kenny Dillingham had choice words for the kicking situation, that he later walked back and apolgized for. However the Kicking output has been poor all season, Ian Hershey is currently the 66th ranked kicker of 75 qualifiers. As a team they are 5 for 13 on the season kicking field goals from 30 yards and beyond.





This is a Segment, presented by my great sponsor @Alex Dunlap and the NEW Football with Friends Beef Jerky, it's called "According to PFF"

1) According to PFF, While sporting the BEST Rushing Grade from an offense that Texas will play all season, they are joined by the 4th worst run blocking offensive line, grading out just 1.5 points higher than that "vaunted" Oklahoma Sooner mess that Texas abolished back in Week 6. If you can tackle Skattebo, this game is a wrap.

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2) According to PFF, not only does this Arizona State defensive line nearly all make weight for High School Heavyweight competition, they equally struggle to rush the passer. Grading out as the worst pass-rush that Texas will have played all season long, almost 3 country miles worse than Louisiana-Monroe

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Cody's Week 18 Prediction (12-2)

Texas 34
Arizona State 0

Arizona State 1st Half Scoring in the last 6 games
Leavitt, QB - (W) Oklahoma State (21-14) - TD, Missed FG, Punt, TD, TD
Leavitt, QB - (W) Central Florida (21-17) - DOWNS, Punt Block Return, Punt, TD, INT TD
Leavitt, QB - (W) Kansas State (21-0) - TD, Punt, TD, TD, HALF
Leavitt, QB - (W) BYU (21-3) - TD, INT, TD, TD, HALF
Leavitt, QB - (W) Arizona (35-0) - TD, TD, TD, TD, Punt, TD
Leavitt, QB - (W) Iowa State (24-10) - FG, TD, TD, Punt, TD

Texas 1st Half Scoring in last 7 games
Ewers, QB - (W) Vanderbilt (21-10) - INT, TD, TD, Punt, TD, Punt
Ewers, QB - (W) Florida (35-0) - Missed FG, TD, TD, Punt, Punt, TD, TD, TD
Ewers, QB - (W) Arkansas (10-0) - Punt, Punt, TD, Punt, FG, Punt, Punt
Ewers, QB - (W) Kentucky (24-7) - TD, Downs, Punt, TD, TD, FG
Ewers, QB - (W) Texas A&M (17-0) - Punt, TD, TD, FG, Downs
Ewers, QB - (L) Georgia (6-3) - INT, FG, FG, Missed FG, Punt
Ewers, QB - (W) Clemson (28-10) - TD, TD, TD, Downs, INT, TD

Player of the Game: Wisner + Blue, again (34 carries 301 yards 3 touchdowns)

Offensivly I don't anticipate Texas boat-racing the Sun Devils who are respectable on the back-end, however I do see this game ending in less than 3 hours due to the sheer rushing output expected form both teams. Look for Texas to go nearly perfect on offensive drives, scoring on 6 of 7 drives before kneeling out the game in the 4th quarter. Arizona State will see one drive of "success" to begin the game as Texas finds its barrings on Skattebo, but come up short with a missed field goal. The Sun Devils will fail to find the Red Zone again in this one.

The line in the game is Texas -12.5 with a game total of 51.5. This implies a score of 32-19.5 in favor of Texas.

Past Predictions

- Week 1 Prediction: 51-13 Texas
- Week 1 Result: 52-0 Texas (+/- 14)
- Week 2 Prediction: 34-13 Texas
- Week 2 Result: 31-12 Texas (+/- 4)
- Week 3 Prediction: 55-3 Texas
- Week 3 Result: 56-7 Texas (+/- 5)
- Week 4 Prediction: 48-6 Texas
- Week 4 Result: 51-3 Texas (+/- 6)
- Week 5 Prediction: 55-14 Texas
- Week 5 Result: 35-13 Texas (+/- 21)
- Week 7 Prediction: 37-23 Texas
- Week 7 Result: 34-3 Texas (+/- 23)
- Week 8 Prediction: 32-24 Texas
- Week 8 Result: 30-15 Georgia (+/- 23)
- Week 9 Prediction: 40-10 Texas
- Week 9 Results: 27-24 Texas (+/- 27)
- Week 11 Prediction: 34-10 Texas
- Week 11 Results: 49-17 Texas (+/- 22)
- Week 12 Prediction: 45-10 Texas
- Week 12 Results: 20-10 Texas (+/- 25)
- Week 13 Prediction: 31-13 Texas
- Week 13 Results: 31-14 Texas (+/- 1)
- Week 14 Prediction: 26-19 Texas
- Week 14 Results: 17-7 Texas (+/- 21)
- Week 16 Prediction: 30-27 Texas
- Week 16 Results: 22-19 Georgia (+/- 16)
- Week 17 Prediction: 27-26 Texas
- Week 17 Results: 38-24 Texas (+/- 13)



ICYMI - Football with Friends, Final Takes on Arizona State

 
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