Ketch's 10 Thoughts From the Weekend (2016... the final rebuilding year?)

[Perdy]

Can you live with one more rebuilding season?


I just think it’s talent that is a year away from making some real hay, a point I don’t believe is lost on the majority of you. The real issue with the 2016 season being a rebuilding year is that when Strong was hired, he didn’t sell himself as the guy who would have an awful team for two seasons and a decent one in year number three before seriously being able to challenge for anything of substance.

Being told you’re going to go through another failure of a season (any season at Texas that ends without a conference title or a major bowl game is a failure), while the finish line moves yet again to the season after next is a pill I can’t make you swallow. Strong enters this season with an 11-14 record and the majority of those 14 losses were bad enough that you could argue the record actually feels like 11-28.

From my vantage point, there are three things that need to happen this season - steady improvement, better in-game coaching and zero embarrassing blowouts. If those three things occur, I’m more inclined to believe that this team is actually one season away.

Regardless of what each of us believe the 2017 season can and will become, let’s not live in a fantasy land as it relates to the 2016 season.



BUY or SELL: Texas competes for a spot in the college football playoffs in 2017?

(Sell) I don’t mean to be rude because you’re in a group that consists of thousands of people, but you simply have to stop talking about the college football playoff in 2017. Until a number of steps are taken in this program, that thought needs to be retired. I mean … I kind of roll my eyes every time someone writes the words.

You seem to contradict yourself with the beginning of your analysis and your anwer to the Buy or Sell question. So which way is it? Are we in for 2 years of rebuilding or 1? What do you mean when you say that we are a year away from making some real hay?

Your definition of success is a Big 12 championship or major bowl game. You imply that we could have that in '17 (with strong caveats) and then you say you roll your eyes with talk of being in the mix for the playoffs. A run at the Championship puts us in the hunt. I like your optimism in the first part way more than your later pessimism.

I completely agree with regard to improvement this year and your metrics. I just believe that it is possible that we improve this year and do very well next year.

 

[Ketchum]

a. Malcom Brown. Poona was also good last year and it can be argued that we have multiple guys coming in that have a way higher floor and ceiling than Poona.
b. I think of impact guys as guys who stand out among their peers. You don't have to have a whole line full of "impact" guys in order to be decent on the line. Compare our talent with other Big 12 schools. I think you'll find we'll have enough talented bodies to compete on the d-line in our conference.

a. You mean the season he started no games, zero sacks and made two tackles for loss all season.

Yes, I agree. If that's your definition of impact, it can be reached.

b. It's tougher to stand out among your peers as a freshman lineman that many believe, in my estimation.

 

[Ketchum]

I don't think this is a negative thread....I think its realistic.

Things are looking up, but the house isn't quite built yet.

bingo, bango, bongo.

 

[Ketchum]

Dang... Well that makes us both. Its all love. MAC blood. We will just differ man. @Ketchum

MAC blood for life.

 

[Ketchum]

I think we are saying the same thing... I think you just see the things that need to be improved on with detail while we may just be excited about having a quarterback. 7 regular season wins is good for me with Shane B starting. @Ketchum

Just got to keep him upright.

 

[ball911]

You do when one is a true freshmen quarterback, when both lines are anywhere from a mess to meh, when the kicking game is a major question mark and all your best players are sophomores for the most part.

Lack of depth at critical positions is pretty much the definition of "rebuild."

 

[Ketchum]

You seem to contradict yourself with the beginning of your analysis and your anwer to the Buy or Sell question. So which way is it? Are we in for 2 years of rebuilding or 1? What do you mean when you say that we are a year away from making some real hay?

Your definition of success is a Big 12 championship or major bowl game. You imply that we could have that in '17 (with strong caveats) and then you say you roll your eyes. I like your optimism in the first part way more than your later pessimism.

I completely agree with regard to improvement this year and your metrics. I just believe that it is possible that we improve this year and do very well next year.

a. The 2017 team can compete for a conference title on paper IMO.
b. That means 2017 would be a go-get-it year and not a rebuilding year,. hence one more rebuilding season, and no contradiction.

 

[yoshwhite12]

Where are you getting six from?

@Ketchum I didnt do a good job setting up that response. I was replying to your statement of the team needing to be stocked at every position in order to win 8 games. I was also pointing out that you had mentioned in the thread that they would win 7.5. Being how close that is, I was just saying you must only believe they will only win 6 games. Bad post on my part.

 

[Perdy]

a. The 2017 team can compete for a conference title on paper IMO.
b. That means 2017 would be a go-get-it year and not a rebuilding year,. hence one more rebuilding season, and no contradiction.

Should I roll my eyes that you are like the thousands who believe we could be in the hunt in '17?

 

[HI_McDunnough]

a. You mean the season he started no games, zero sacks and made two tackles for loss all season.

Yes, I agree. If that's your definition of impact, it can be reached.

b. It's tougher to stand out among your peers as a freshman lineman that many believe, in my estimation.

I guess we will find out in August. Do you at least agree that it will be better than what was available on Saturday? We have seven d-linemen coming in. Seven.

 

[Atownatx]

I guess we will find out in August. Do you at least agree that it will be better than what was available on Saturday? We have seven d-linemen coming in. Seven.

There is a reason why a third of our 2016 recruiting class were D-lineman so Ketch does have a point...it is all unknown. If three of those guys are able to combine to provide "impact" we should be okay up the middle. Its a pretty big unknown though.

 

[ThaTank]

How rare is it to have an impact true freshman offensive lineman? It looks like we are about to have at least our third one in two years.

It may not be rare here at Texas where the pickings are very slim to begin with. However all three lineman you speak of were offered by Baylor and they would of never seen the field as Freshman. Vahe also was offered by LSU and Williams and Shackelford were offered by K- State, again never would of seen the field as freshman. They all were highly recruited athletes with many offers and could of been impact players at some of those smaller programs. However we are Texas and we shouldn't have to rely on true Freshmen, 17 and 18 year old young undersized under developed Lineman facing 21 and 22 year old men who are as strong as tanks. I think all 3 will develop to be very good Lineman and 1 may even play at the next level but we need some Big Nasty JUCO Juniors and even a Senior or two. Who knows with a little luck Texas could win 9 games or more. I don't know if Buechele is the starter but he's going to make the others step up their game. Along with those Beast running backs and those fast tall long armed receivers this offense could compete every game. But it all starts up front, they have to open the holes for the run game and give the Quarterback time to read the defense and find the open man. More Lineman help needed.

Funny thing Ketch is the first one to bring up the O-Line problems. Had Wickline still been it it would of been the #1 topic.

 

[Baguette]

Hey Ketch, you just didn't crash the party many of us were having, you blew it up! You definitely have a mean streak that needs to be reigned in. Either that or you haven't been getting enough sleep lately, Mr Grumpy.

Seriously though------its too easy to get all high about Buechele {how in the the hell can "Bue" be pronounced Boo, anyway?}, and the running backs and forget all about the weak/thin defensive & offensive lines,although the starting O-line is helluva lot better than the D-line, but that's not saying much either is it.} and the kicking game... all of which combined probably caps us at a max of 8 wins.

Thanks for the sobriety check. Meantime I'll just enjoy watching SB grow in leaps & bounds this season.

 

[Ketchum]

Should I roll my eyes that you are like the thousands who believe we could be in the hunt in '17?

I have never used the word playoff. Calling a team a potential conference title contender and putting them in as a possible playoff team is nowhere nearly the same thing.

 

[Ketchum]

I guess we will find out in August. Do you at least agree that it will be better than what was available on Saturday? We have seven d-linemen coming in. Seven.

Of course. Absolutely. I don't project any impact defensive tackles on this roster this year, though, and I have concerns about the same at defensive end.

 

[Ketchum]

It may not be rare here at Texas where the pickings are very slim to begin with. However all three lineman you speak of were offered by Baylor and they would of never seen the field as Freshman. Vahe also was offered by LSU and Williams and Shackelford were offered by K- State, again never would of seen the field as freshman. They all were highly recruited athletes with many offers and could of been impact players at some of those smaller programs. However we are Texas and we shouldn't have to rely on true Freshmen, 17 and 18 year old young undersized under developed Lineman facing 21 and 22 year old men who are as strong as tanks. I think all 3 will develop to be very good Lineman and 1 may even play at the next level but we need some Big Nasty JUCO Juniors and even a Senior or two. Who knows with a little luck Texas could win 9 games or more. I don't know if Buechele is the starter but he's going to make the others step up their game. Along with those Beast running backs and those fast tall long armed receivers this offense could compete every game. But it all starts up front, they have to open the holes for the run game and give the Quarterback time to read the defense and find the open man. More Lineman help needed.

Funny thing Ketch is the first one to bring up the O-Line problems. Had Wickline still been it it would of been the #1 topic.

I thought Wickline did a good job last year. Don't confuse not being right for the this job with doing a bad job on the field last year.

 

[Ketchum]

Hey Ketch, you just didn't crash the party many of us were having, you blew it up! You definitely have a mean streak that needs to be reigned in. Either that or you haven't been getting enough sleep lately, Mr Grumpy.

Seriously though------its too easy to get all high about Buechele {how in the the hell can "Bue" be pronounced Boo, anyway?}, and the running backs and forget all about the weak/thin defensive & offensive lines,although the starting O-line is helluva lot better than the D-line, but that's not saying much either is it.} and the kicking game... all of which combined probably caps us at a max of 8 wins.

Thanks for the sobriety check. Meantime I'll just enjoy watching SB grow in leaps & bounds this season.

Well, depending on the expectations established, it could be a lot of fun to watch him this season.

 

[hook_em27]

If Texas wins 7 regular season games plus a bowl, then CS returns after an 8 win season with the core of his players entering junior years. I can accept 8 wins if we are competitive in our losses and Gilbert produces an offense that actually moves the football with a freshman quarterback. If that occurs, then 2017 sets up as Strong's make or break season to compete for a Big12 title and a major bowl game. But I think the pieces are in place after a major rebuild. I want to see steps forward next year, but understand that anything above 8 wins is going to be tough given the dynamics of the roster.

 

[In Stink]

Linemen showing up and being highly recruited doesn't mean much to me.

It's a rare case when freshmen defensive linemen are ready to be impact performers.

The depth situation is dire on both the offensive and defensive lines.

People keep referring to the "when the freshmen arrive" like that is a given to solve the problems. Yes, the freshmen are going to have to play - particularly on the defensive line, and likely in at least a couple of backup spots on the offensive line. But however ready the freshmen may be when they report, and however quickly they adapt, this is still a worst-case scenario. Connor Williams and Patrick Vahe were freshman All-Americans last year, but that hardly means that played like true All-Americans. They were both OK last year. Counting on the freshmen as an immediate and dependable solution to the depth problem on both lines is not a recipe for a breakout season.

 

[HI_McDunnough]

There is a reason why a third of our 2016 recruiting class were D-lineman so Ketch does have a point...it is all unknown. If three of those guys are able to combine to provide "impact" we should be okay up the middle. Its a pretty big unknown though.

Unknown being the key word there. I agree. I am just happy we finally got the highly recruited bodies in here. They just need to show up ready to ball. I have a feeling Jordan Elliott and Christmas-Giles will be ready. As for DE, look out for Andrew Fitzgerald. Everyone is saying he is way underrated.

 

[Ketchum]

If Texas wins 7 regular season games plus a bowl, then CS returns after an 8 win season with the core of his players entering junior years. I can accept 8 wins if we are competitive in our losses and Gilbert produces an offense that actually moves the football with a freshman quarterback. If that occurs, then 2017 sets up as Strong's make or break season to compete for a Big12 title and a major bowl game. But I think the pieces are in place after a major rebuild. I want to see steps forward next year, but understand that anything above 8 wins is going to be tough given the dynamics of the roster.

1,000-percent fair.

 

[GetOffMyDitka]

I don't think this is a negative thread....I think its realistic.

Things are looking up, but the house isn't quite built yet.

I disagree, Ketch pointed out ZERO positives when their clearly were at least a few. That's the definition of being negative. I understand he doesn't want to the fans thinking 10 plus wins and a B12 title but damn, give this ball club some respect! The offense's improvement alone is an obvious improvement that he left out.

 

[Ketchum]

Unknown being the key word there. I agree. I am just happy we finally got the highly recruited bodies in here. They just need to show up ready to ball. I have a feeling Jordan Elliott and Christmas-Giles will be ready. As for DE, look out for Andrew Fitzgerald. Everyone is saying he is way underrated.

I think we agree on all of that. We just disagree on what it means right away.

 

[Ketchum]

I disagree, Ketch pointed out ZERO positives when their clearly were at least a few. That's the definition of being negative. I understand he doesn't want to the fans thinking 10 plus wins and a B12 title but damn, give this ball club some respect! The offense's improvement alone is an obvious improvement that he left out.

The entire point of the first half of the column was to point out that there is a light at the end of the tunnel... FINALLY.

It's just a year away.

That's a positive in my book.

 

[Holy Cow]

I disagree, Ketch pointed out ZERO positives when their clearly were at least a few. That's the definition of being negative. I understand he doesn't want to the fans thinking 10 plus wins and a B12 title but damn, give this ball club some respect! The offense's improvement alone is an obvious improvement that he left out.

Why should he give it "respect". What has Charlie done to deserve the benefit of the doubt? I want Charlie to succeed, but this is on him. I'm expecting 7 wins, no blowouts, and coherrent sembalance of an offense led by a talented, but young freshman qb. If they accomplish that, he definitely deserves to be back. 6 or less wins, it will verrrrry dicey for his future and rightfully so.

 

[jdriscoll]

a. Naashon is just a guy. I think the coaches want him replaced asap. Cottrell is the guy that needs to step up.
b. This defense still has a lot of work to do.

Either way. Good defensive end play and large bodies in the middle would put our defense up there with anybody's in the big 12.

Also, I try not to give up on players until they're upperclassmen, so I'll give Naashon a chance.

 

[FrancoBevo]

A) the "decision makers" had to hold the line against the real decision makers who wanted to remove Strong from his position last November. "Chess" would be positioning the university so that no one could make an argument that Strong wasn't given the full support of the administration (should they be in a position to fire him).

B) if our situation were happening at any other blue blood program in America, we (me, you, everyone of us) would be pointing and laughing at the historically poor results, full scale coaching staff changes, and the excuses and "we're close" from a certain section of the fan base. We'd universally agree that the other program is crazy for not making a change if the team hovers around 6-7 wins in the coach's 3rd season (which would give him only 17 or 18 wins cumulative in 37 attempts).

I want you to close your eyes. Do you see this program?

Now imagine it's burnt orange.

Well, this has happened at many blue blood programs around the country - Bama was a mess before Saban, USC was a mess before and after Carroll, Michigan has been as big a mess as Texas has been the past few years, etc, etc, etc. We could have probably avoided this if we'd removed Mack a couple of years before we actually did but we don't do that around here. We're on the right track now, the guy we have is actually a football coach that can spot and develop talent - I'm in the camp that wants to let it play out b/c I know that firing coaches every two to three years is a strategy for disaster, worse than what we've seen so far.

 

[kenfranz]

No more player excuses. At some point it is coaching not players, not Mack Brown. CS should have fired already. The 2015 team ranks among the worst ever. 24-0 against Iowa State. Just putting off the inevitable. CS recruits fairly well but has not shown he can win. This needs to be his last chance.

 

[Ketchum]

Either way. Good defensive end play and large bodies in the middle would put our defense up there with anybody's in the big 12.

Also, I try not to give up on players until they're upperclassmen, so I'll give Naashon a chance.

a. Takes better than good end play and large bodies alone IMO.
b. I don't think anyone is giving up on him, but they want him replaced.

 

[Baguette]

Well, depending on the expectations established, it could be a lot of fun to watch him this season.

No doubt he'll have some growing pains, but yeah, it'll be a lot of fun watching Shane this season. I know I'm pretty stoked about it.

 

[Perdy]

I have never used the word playoff. Calling a team a potential conference title contender and putting them in as a possible playoff team is nowhere nearly the same thing.

I guess I am missing your distinction between the two.

My point is win the Big 12 and you are in the conversation about the playoffs. Just depends how the other conferences shake out. That means that if we are competing for the Big 12 we are in the mix. I don't think it is too much a stretch to think that we might compete in '17.

 

[Baguette]

No more player excuses. At some point it is coaching not players, not Mack Brown. CS should have fired already. The 2015 team ranks among the worst ever. 24-0 against Iowa State. Just putting off the inevitable. CS recruits fairly well but has not shown he can win. This needs to be his last chance.

Damn right!....unless there is major improvement across the board {coaching, no more disgusting blow-outs, and we're damn competitive in each game, despite a suck-ass D line & a C+ O-line}, then he's gotta go..

 

[jdriscoll]

a. Takes better than good end play and large bodies alone IMO.
b. I don't think anyone is giving up on him, but they want him replaced.

I'm assuming Haines and Hall aren't starting as well. I'm not saying the defense will be great, but it should be near the top of the conference if the line is just average.

If we had better Special Teams I'd say 9 wins for sure.

 

[MB-HORNS]

You're beginning to post more anti-Herman stuff than the pro-Herman folks.

And I damn proud it. Are many of you getting the point? The same old shit gets old over and over in every thread.

 

[MB-HORNS]

Strong is history after 6-6. Book that.

Not saying I agree he should be retained if this happens but you better prepare your anus.