Ketch's 10 Thoughts From the Weekend (2016... the final rebuilding year?)

[DeepEddyHorn]

I'm just concerned with the lack of attentiveness from CS. Major questions at OL, DL, K and QB. I'm very excited about SB but we basically have one QB and he is a true freshman. I loved (repeat loved) what I saw from Gilbert's offense on Saturday. Such a breath of fresh air, but I think we're going to get gashed by the run all year long.

Something else - I don't ever remember Ketch writing about Mack Brown with the same level of sarcasm, such as a recent comment suggesting that CS doesn't even know the names of the walk-on candidates at kicker. I would love to hear some down and dirty assessments of the strengths and weaknesses of CS as a coach and program manager, maybe this will be a locker room question.

 

[Ketchum]

I guess I am missing your distinction between the two.

My point is win the Big 12 and you are in the conversation about the playoffs. Just depends how the other conferences shake out. That means that if we are competing for the Big 12 we are in the mix. I don't think it is too much a stretch to think that we might compete in '17.

And contending for a title could include two or three losses.

 

[Ketchum]

I'm assuming Haines and Hall aren't starting as well. I'm not saying the defense will be great, but it should be near the top of the conference if the line is just average.

If we had better Special Teams I'd say 9 wins for sure.

Those young guys will need time to grow up at safety.

 

[MB-HORNS]

Also let be be clear 9-3 is where I think the team needs to be. I am also not saying Strong should get 2017 at 6 & 6 I just think he will get it.

 

[RLong68]

I disagree with your assessment of the first team OL. Will be interesting to see what @Alex Dunlap thinks.

 

[Holy Cow]

Should I roll my eyes that you are like the thousands who believe we could be in the hunt in '17?

Let's win, no correction, COMPETE for a conference title before we declare our selves ready for playoff hunt. Nothing I saw Saturday gave me confidence this no better than a 8 win team (with a bowl win) max. The schedule is much tougher than people are giving credit, we have ZERO depth with any experience on the OLine, the DT position is non-existent of quality starter much less impact players and we have 185 pound freshman (while talented) that is expected to play 90% of the snaps in 2016. There is currently NO kicker on the team that anyone should have confidence in for anyting outside of 30 yards. Let's tap the brakes. Yes the talent is getting better, yes the coaching staff appears to be more cohesive and together, yes the offense will improve simply on being led by Gilbert. I hope Charlie is successful and we can optimism for 2017, but let's see what we get in 2016 before talking about competing for playoff hunt.

 

[chastok]

Once again another negative thread started by @CS, um I mean @Ketchum!

In a way I agree with you that the over/under is 7.5 games. I'm calling my shot at 8 games with Boo on board instead of my 7 game prediction pre-spring game. You come out and point out all the negatives and other than Buechele, list no positives at all! I'm not calling this team world beaters but how about these three points?

- Buechele is the best QB we've had since Colt went down. As a true freshman, he doesn't have to win the games just mange them and play within the system.

- Compared to last year, this offense is light years ahead and it's only going to get better as the year progresses.

- The back seven are nasty on this defense and if the freshman DLine can add some much needed depth then this defense can make some serious strides by year end.

He has to prove he is a better QB than Ash. I would have taken a healthy Ash every moment since Colt went down in Q1 and twice on every Saturday.

I hope Shane is a better player. Time will tell. At least there is a discussion.

 

[RLong68]

Those young guys will need time to grow up at safety.

Young guys can grow up. Below average tends to stay below average. Elliott, Boyd, Locke and Jones need to see the field much more than Haines, Hall, and Vacarro. Much like Buechele, I can toleraate mistakes of youth who are more talented. I can't tolerate the same sh*tty play from vets who are a JAGs.

 

[GetOffMyDitka]

Why should he give it "respect". What has Charlie done to deserve the benefit of the doubt? I want Charlie to succeed, but this is on him. I'm expecting 7 wins, no blowouts, and coherrent sembalance of an offense led by a talented, but young freshman qb. If they accomplish that, he definitely deserves to be back. 6 or less wins, it will verrrrry dicey for his future and rightfully so.

 

[Ketchum]

I'm just concerned with the lack of attentiveness from CS. Major questions at OL, DL, K and QB. I'm very excited about SB but we basically have one QB and he is a true freshman. I loved (repeat loved) what I saw from Gilbert's offense on Saturday. Such a breath of fresh air, but I think we're going to get gashed by the run all year long.

Something else - I don't ever remember Ketch writing about Mack Brown with the same level of sarcasm, such as a recent comment suggesting that CS doesn't even know the names of the walk-on candidates at kicker. I would love to hear some down and dirty assessments of the strengths and weaknesses of CS as a coach and program manager, maybe this will be a locker room question.

Oh, I was snarky with Mack. Back in 2008, I was writing about the danger areas that were building in recruiting and on the field, and people said I was too negative.

Hell, I wrote a piece where I placed all of the Texas coaches and AD people as actors from Boogie Nights.

 

[GetOffMyDitka]

The entire point of the first half of the column was to point out that there is a light at the end of the tunnel... FINALLY.

It's just a year away.

That's a positive in my book.

You basically said, the weather forecast could possibly be good but not great, but don't step in all that dog crap in the yard on your way out the door.

 

[BrushCountryHorn]

Mason Menard? I know it says he is from Louisiana, but at least one of his parents must be from the western Hill Country.

 

[Big Ernie McCracken]

That's simply not true. Here's a link to our archives. Feel free to search away.

I followed your advice and looked at 2011 and 2012 war rooms during spring and fall practice. You said very little about overall team success and greatly overestimated the strengths of individual players and position groups. I can provide some of the tastier quotes if you like...

 

[Ketchum]

Young guys can grow up. Below average tends to stay below average. Elliott, Boyd, Locke and Jones need to see the field much more than Haines, Hall, and Vacarro. Much like Buechele, I can toleraate mistakes of youth who are more talented. I can't tolerate the same sh*tty play from vets who are a JAGs.

we're not in any disagreement.

 

[Ketchum]

I followed your advice and looked at 2011 and 2012 war rooms during spring and fall practice. You said very little about overall team success and greatly overestimated the strengths of individual players and position groups. I can provide some of the tastier quotes if you like...

Oh, I'm not saying I haven't been wrong. We're all going to be wrong on occasions.

I'm telling you that I have been right on in regards to my predictions for the overall state of the team. Hell, there were some calling for nine or 10 wins in Mack's last season and I was labeled negative for thinking the house was build on cards.

Hell, if I was wrong at all, there would be a host of people in here countering that thought. There's a reason why I mostly get "85-percent" or "It's Austin" as snarky insults. It's because there aren't a lot of other major missed calls...

Those two, plus Garrett Gilbert, are my scarlet letters.

 

[Big Ernie McCracken]

Oh, I'm not saying I haven't been wrong. We're all going to be wrong on occasions.

I'm telling you that I have been right on in regards to my predictions for the overall state of the team. Hell, there were some calling for nine or 10 wins in Mack's last season and I was labeled negative for thinking the house was build on cards.

I thought you went into negative mode when started losing recruits in the 2013 class.

 

[GetOffMyDitka]

He has to prove he is a better QB than Ash. I would have taken a healthy Ash every moment since Colt went down in Q1 and twice on every Saturday.

I hope Shane is a better player. Time will tell. At least there is a discussion.

You are correct that only time will tell, but what matters is that he is head and shoulders better than anything on campus. My opinion is that he is already better than Ash with his game management and awareness. His arm isn't as strong as Ash's but he's a true frosh so that will improve. He's also more accurate then Ash ever was even on his best day.

 

[jspirohorn]

Reality can be harsh at times, but I think most of us know that we're probably still a year away. The sad part of that is that 2017 will be the junior seasons for guys like Malik, Holton Hill, Anthony Wheeler, Davante Davis, Deshon Elliott, Connor Williams, etc. And very likely it may be the final season for some of them who, if they make the improvements we envision, could be on their way to the NFL after 3 years. So we don't really get to see much fruit from the labor... basically 2 years of their careers on the 40 Acres are more or less wasted.

I am optimistic about the young pups on defense because most of them flashed last year. However, none of them have consistently done anything on the field yet (ex-Malik) to even make me think they are sure-fire all conference players. Pump the brakes.

 

[Ketchum]

I thought you went into negative mode when started losing recruits in the 2013 class.

Again, not negative, realistic.

My realism kicked in right after not trusting what I was hearing before the 2010 season.

 

[jdriscoll]

Those young guys will need time to grow up at safety.

For sure. This is not a year for championships, but it will be fun to watch with 8 or more wins.

Also, I feel like everybody is sleeping on Poona. I think he is effective when not fatigued.

 

[RLong68]

You are correct that only time will tell, but what matters is that he is head and shoulders better than anything on campus. My opinion is that he is already better than Ash with his game management and awareness. His arm isn't as strong as Ash's but he's a true frosh so that will improve. He's also more accurate then Ash ever was even on his best day.

Some guys you can tell just sorta ooze that alpha male in them. I liked Ash and certainly would have liked to see what he could have become, but he never struck me as that alpha male dog type. Buechele does. It's there to see for anyone paying attention. I also think he also has what it takes from the neck up to succeed at Texas.

 

[BrushCountryHorn]

Texas fans should want to win regardless of coach.

If Texas wins 9 next year, that great for Stong and Texas. If he wins 7, he needs to be shown the door after TCU.

I think much rides on how the wins and losses play out. If we beat everyone we should, play the hell out of everyone else, win or lose, the defense is coming along strong but needs the Freshmen D lineman to mature, the offense scores points and looks like plays are being called competently, and game plans and adjustments are good, I doubt the record means as much. But if the defense continues to set undesirable records I think he's gone, regardless of how the offense does. You can't hire a defense-minded coach who is a questionable organizer, see the problems from the lack of organization for 3 years, and see the defense suck, and still keep the guy.

That said, I think his recruits and new hires save his bacon and we see the light at the end of the tunnel that is not a train. With another good class of recruits, 2017-2019 looks promising - whether it's CS or another head coach.

 

[Ketchum]

You are correct that only time will tell, but what matters is that he is head and shoulders better than anything on campus. My opinion is that he is already better than Ash with his game management and awareness. His arm isn't as strong as Ash's but he's a true frosh so that will improve. He's also more accurate then Ash ever was even on his best day.

Ash's ability to compute what was in front of him quickly was always an issue. He had some limitations. He would have done well in this offense, though.

 

[PBakerTX]

I can only imagine the base after a 6-6 season that doesn't result in Strong's firing.

I do not have faith that the Big Money Donors are going to support CS if this teams goes 6-6

 

[bkrichmd1]

what's your definition of dramatically?

It's really going to be up to Vance to teach them gap integrity. With good LB's that helps.

 

[Ketchum]

It's really going to be up to Vance to teach them gap integrity. With good LB's that helps.

Vance AND Charlie. He lives with the defense.

 

[bkrichmd1]

If anyone is wondering how we got to this point on our defensive line, our DL depth is sitting in College Station right now. We got killed from a marketshare perspective.

Texas 2013-2015 Defensive LIne Recruits
2013 - 0 signees
2014 - 4 (Jake McMillon, Derek Roberson, Chris Nelson, Poona Ford)
2015 - 2 (Charles Omenhiu, Quincy Vassar)

2 out of 6 signees were four star or higher prospects

Aggy 2013-2015 Defensive Line Recruits
2013 - 5 (Jay Arnold, Isaiah Golden, Daeshon Hall, Justin Manning, Harderick Walker)
2014 - 5 (Myles Garrett, Qualen Cunningham, Zaycoven Henderson, Jarrett Johnson, Deshawn Washington)
2015 - 3 (Kingsely Keke, Daylon Mack, James Lockhart

10 out of 13 signees were four star or higher prospects

Very good point, what is interesting is how those signee's Aggie got still are under performing over there. In fact if they would have received the DL play those guys should have given them Aggie would have had a TOTALLY different last few years.

 

[bkrichmd1]

Vance AND Charlie. He lives with the defense.

Of course but also realize this is the first year in a long time we are bringing in 300+ pound D Lineman.

 

[snoop9928]

I remember when a lot of guys on here laughed at Paul George being called a superstar. That was a whiff

 

[Perdy]

Let's win, no correction, COMPETE for a conference title before we declare our selves ready for playoff hunt. Nothing I saw Saturday gave me confidence this no better than a 8 win team (with a bowl win) max. The schedule is much tougher than people are giving credit, we have ZERO depth with any experience on the OLine, the DT position is non-existent of quality starter much less impact players and we have 185 pound freshman (while talented) that is expected to play 90% of the snaps in 2016. There is currently NO kicker on the team that anyone should have confidence in for anyting outside of 30 yards. Let's tap the brakes. Yes the talent is getting better, yes the coaching staff appears to be more cohesive and together, yes the offense will improve simply on being led by Gilbert. I hope Charlie is successful and we can optimism for 2017, but let's see what we get in 2016 before talking about competing for playoff hunt.

Who declared us ready? I am pushing back on those who are telling me that it is a fantasy to believe that this team might surprise people by being really good in '17.

I don't see why I can't be realistic about this year and optimistic about '17. I may not feel very good when we get to the end of '16, but from where I sit I see a team that could be very good for many years after we get through this one. Lots of good stuff must happen first to be sure.

Beuchele must be a good college QB. Both lines must mature and be much better. We also need a few kids to emerge as big time difference makers. Gilbert must be the real deal. Charlie must show that he can make good decisions during the game. We have to avoid injuries to our key players. Ketch is right. They need to learn how to win.

If things go our way I see no reason that we can't compete for the Big 12 championship in '17. If we are competing we have a shot at being one of the 4 in it at the end. We could stumble down the stretch and wind up with 3 losses or we could get the lucky bounces and end up with 1 loss. Who knows then. Do I expect to be there? No. That is way too optimistic. But thinking that it is possible is not and it is certainly much more enjoyable.

 

[txcuernolargo]

Gerrard is a bad man. Damn he was good in his prime. Imagine trying to protect 192 square feet against a 75mph Tim Wakefield style knuckleball. These guys couldn't.

View embedded media

And yes, I'm freaking pumped about Texas football. Spot on analysis, some bright spots but still some issues and some young talent growing pains coming.

Those Gerrard set plays were beautiful. Thanks for sharing.

 

[_PIIHB_]

The last true freshman defensive tackle to make a big first-year impact in a UT uniform was....

Who was the last Texas true freshman DT that made a big impact in the first-year?

When is the last time our defensive line was this depleted that it needed true freshman to contribute?




I do agree with the poster below... Soccer sucks man.
How about a 'Spoiler Tag' on soccer?

Ketch you know I cut for you, but you gotta stop bombarding us with the soccer foolishness. We are Texans. We don't do soccer.

 

[svm7226]

I agree!! But we need two of the incoming OL to be as good in their first year as Williams and Vahe, and three of the incoming DL to be Williams/Vahe good from day one.

That is a lot to wish for.

I think we'll get that from these guys, primarily because we have lots of opportunity, and playing time will be plentiful......you'll see our DL as a strength by mid season

 

[Ketchum]

Of course but also realize this is the first year in a long time we are bringing in 300+ pound D Lineman.

That's so hard to believe.

 

[Hornangeblood]

Who declared us ready? I am pushing back on those who are telling me that it is a fantasy to believe that this team might surprise people by being really good in '17.

I don't see why I can't be realistic about this year and optimistic about '17. I may not feel very good when we get to the end of '16, but from where I sit I see a team that could be very good for many years after we get through this one. Lots of good stuff must happen first to be sure.

Beuchele must be a good college QB. Both lines must mature and be much better. We also need a few kids to emerge as big time difference makers. Gilbert must be the real deal. Charlie must show that he can make good decisions during the game. We have to avoid injuries to our key players. Ketch is right. They need to learn how to win.

If things go our way I see no reason that we can't compete for the Big 12 championship in '17. If we are competing we have a shot at being one of the 4 in it at the end. We could stumble down the stretch and wind up with 3 losses or we could get the lucky bounces and end up with 1 loss. Who knows then. Do I expect to be there? No. That is way too optimistic. But thinking that it is possible is not and it is certainly much more enjoyable.

We certainly cannot afford many injuries on either line or to SB or our season could look like last year.