A week ago, a forensics review of the 2019 recruiting class revealed what so many of you reading this already knew ... a disaster.
When the best players of an entire recruiting class are either a talented back-up running back or an oft-injured, but very talented No. 3 wide receiver going into their projected final seasons on campus, it just kind of is what it is.
Of course, a bad recruiting class doesn't automatically cripple a football program, especially in an era where you can enter the Portal to grab impactful, less risky players to lift up the program. Yet, the one thing you don't want to do is stack bad classes on top of each other.
It all got me to thinking about the 2020 recruiting class, which represents the majority of the junior class in the Texas program. The good news is that no one has to worry about whether the best player in the class is worthy of holding that type of mantle because Bijan Robinson was the best prospect from this class the day he signed and he's the best player in the program (other than possibly Xavier Worthy).
But, what about the rest of the class? It's probably not a bad time to take stock of where things currently stand.
5 stars
This is why five-star prospects are so valuable. In the 2022 NFL Draft, five-stars were five times as likely to be drafted in the first round than four-stars and more than 100 times more likely to be drafted in the first 32 picks than three stars. They don't just go boom, but when they go boom, they usually make a big boom. Robinson represents a very, very big boom.
Mid four-stars
A year ago, Card looked like the future of the program at the quarterback position, but now it feels like he's likely to be more of a footnote in the program's history than a headliner in this class.
It just hasn't happened yet for Broughton, who is likely to go into this season as a third-string or fourth-string player.
He's emerged as a solid player for USC and a potential starter going into the 2022 season, but he's nothing more than a miss for the program that he signed with.
Low Four-stars
Has been a solid role player for the Longhorns through the first two seasons of his career and has a chance to develop into more than that before he leaves campus.
Thompson is basically in the same boat as Crawford, which is why they are competing for the same starting safety job. He's been a solid player through two seasons and his development over the next two seasons is really important within the context of this class being a success.
Emerged as a starter at center for the Longhorns at the end of his true freshman season. He's another player whose development over the course of the next two seasons will largely define how this class is remembered.
Through two seasons in the program, Dorbah is a player still trying to get his hands on the light switch. It's too early to say that he's not going to make it, but it's not too early to acknowledge that he's only played in two games in his career at the moment and isn't expected to play a huge role in the 2022 season.
No longer at Texas, Jackson has never quite been able to get off the ground as a college player.
The talent to be an impact player is there, but the health to get on the field hasn't been there.
There was a lot of debate about his recruiting ranking when he came out of high school, but he hasn't been anything close to a national top 50-level prospect in two years. An expected starter in 2022, this season represents a real opportunity for him to have a breakout season.
High Three Stars
At this point, Parr isn't a player that has proven he can be a solid member of a quality two-deep along the offensive line. It feels like he's carrying limited upside through two seasons.
See Parr.
Hullaby entered the transfer Portal a few weeks ago and hasn't landed in a new spot yet.
The potential to be a starter at this level exists, but Karic is going to have a lot of competition on his hands in the coming months and years. It remains to be seen exactly what he's going to be as a college player at Texas.
Another player who entered the Portal a few weeks ago and is no longer in the Texas program.
The third player from this class that entered the Portal a few weeks ago.
Mid Three-Stars
Barron has a chance to develop into the best success stories in the entire state of Texas from the 2022 class. Already a starter going into this season, Barron has a chance to emerge as a high-level college player and possibly the second-best player in this recruiting class.
Low Three-Stars
Moved over to the offensive side of the ball in the spring and doesn't look like a player that projects as an impact player moving forward.
On one hand, Ford is definitely playing better than his ranking suggested he would. On the other hand, no one can still be sure that he's going to be a truly plus-level starting player for the Longhorns. He seems right on the fence. If he gets over the hump, his development could go a long way towards preserving what's left of the class.
No. 2 - Breaking it all down through two years ...
There's good news and bad news when you look at what's happening.
Let's start with the bad news. Twenty-five percent of the class is already gone from the program. Another 25 percent is probably headed that way or represents zero long-term gain for the program over the next 2-3 seasons.
The good news is that it's not unthinkable that 7-8 players from this class could emerge as starting-level players and possibly Sunday players.
Robinson is obviously the crown jewel of the class, but this class will likely be defined by the following group of players - Majors, Crawford, Thompson, Collins, Barron and Ford. Oh, don't get me wrong, it's still possible that Omeire, Karic or even Broughton could join the mix, but the six players I listed project as possible multi-year starters and anchors ofr the program.
Texas needs at least 4 of the 6 to develop into NFL-level players in the next few seasons and while none from the group has yet proven to be a plus-starter at this level, they all feel like players who are potentially on the verge of becoming that.
If that happens, this class has a chance to go down as a pretty good one. Without that happening, this group probably won't even live up to the success of the 2018 class, which has been a much maligned-group, despite the fact that it has already produced three NFL draft picks and has a chance to at least double that in the next two years.
No. 3 - A look at the math in it all ...
5 stars - Bijan entered the Texas program with somewhere between a 50-70 percent chance of emerging as a high level college player and NFL prospect. Thank goodness for this hit.
Mid 4 stars - The Longhorns signed three and with 22% odds based on this year's draft numbers, netting one impact player that emerged as an NFL drafted player would have represented a win. As it stands, that number is headed towards a zero.
Low Four stars - The Longhorns signed seven players from this rankings tier and the national average would mean that on average, one player from the group would emerge as an impact starter who ends up drafted by an NFL team. Collins, Majors, Thompson and Barron give the Longhorns a chance of smashing the expectations.
High three stars - Karic is the only thing keeping this tier from going 0 for 6. If you're surprised by the performance-level of this tier, you're not paying attention.
Mid three-stars - Barron was rated as a mid-three star by Rivals, but he was also the No. 79-ranked player in the state, which means that he was really as historically valuable as a top 30 prospect, which is where I had him slotted. The bottom line is that his hitting helps offset the 0-fer in the high three stars.
Low-Three Stars - Ford was one of the two lowest-rated players in the class, but his development in the next two years could be one of the saving graces of the entire class because his hitting would represent a 1 in 25 turning good.
No. 4 - Coming to get that bag ...
Diamonte Tucker-Dorsey is coming to Austin on Monday for an official visit and a comment that he made in an interview with Orangebloods this week tells me that he'll likely leave town favoring the Longhorns over Central Florida, a school that he visited this weekend on an official visit.
"I’m trying to get to that bag," he told Serenity Douglas. "I need a better opportunity, you know? Showcase my skills, play on a bigger stage so that’s what we’re doing."
No offense to Central Florida, but the NIL opportunities at Texas should be significantly better and there's no question that playing in a power five league represents an upgrade in stages.
Is Texas a better chance to showcase his skills? I don't know the answer to that question. I don't know that he's an automatic starter at Texas.
Yet, who the hell cares what I know or don't know? What matters is that the Texas defensive coaches can convince the James Madison product that the Texas program is one that can answer more than his NIL and major conference desires.
Steve Sarkisian mentioned that he'd still like to take 36 or even 37 incoming players in this class, which means that the Longhorns still have some work to do in the talent acquisition business. Outside of possibly a receiver, you'd think that most of the remaining needed talent is on the defensive side of the ball.
Tucker-Dorsey needs to be step one in that process.
A few more quotes from Tucker-Dorsey's interview with Orangebloods...
"Who doesn’t want to play football in Texas? Texas is a football state ... like from high school I remember we went to nattys in Frisco (Texas), and I walked past a store and it was all high school gear."
"Right now we’re looking at switching me between both positions. (They) want someone who can down package and cover blitz, and just use me like a gadget. I got to talk to him today and I feel wanted and needed so it’s been going good."
"Every coach on the staff has probably reached out to me, so they’ve been going hard at it like I said and it stands out for sure. I like to feel wanted and that is probably one of the biggest things I’m looking for in a school. You want to go somewhere you’re a priority and they really want you to be successful. "
"I’m a great teammate, I’m a natural-born leader, I have a lot of ability. I’ll be a contributor right away to whatever school I go to. I’m a leader by example. I’m a smaller backer but I could move like a DB, hit like a backer, so I’m bringing versatility."
No. 5 - A glance at the current scholarship board ...
No. 6 - Watching greatness ...
Is Ivan Melendez going to get his number retired?
With the end of the regular season complete and the start of the post-season in the short distance, it's become impossible to escape the fact that this season has morphed from a chase after team titles into a box score watching, jaw-dropping, stop-everything-that-you're-doing when Melendez is at bat kind of year.
Part of it centers around a Texas team that has proven to be so much more flawed than we could have ever guessed. Yet, part of it definitely centers in a player I'm not sure that any of us believed could quite emerge into a player that none other than Keith Moreland has called "the greatest right-handed hitter in UT history".
I don't know about the rest of you, but for the last month or so, I've stopped thinking about the team as much as I've thought about the season Melendez is having, which reached record-tying levels this weekend when he hit his 27th home run of the season. Every game I find myself making sure to be around a television when he's close to being on-deck. If I'm not watching, I'm waiting for updates on Orangebloods or social media for his latest heroics.
It feels like that'll be the case again this weekend in the Big 12 Tournament. Nothing against Kyle Russell, who was one hell of a player under Augie Garrido, but I'm fully invested in Melendez breaking the single-season home run record, which they currently share. Regardless of what the team does, it'll feel like a success through my eyes if Melendez mashes the cover off a ball or two and sends them over a fence.
I'm not sure I've ever thought such a thing about a Texas baseball player in the last 30 years. Off the top of my head, you have to go back to when I was 13 and Scott Bryant was doing similar things as the best player in college baseball. Of course, Bryant played on a team that went to the national championship game. Yet, outside of the last game of the season, what I remember most about that 1989 season was Bryant smashing baseballs.
It feels like what I'm going to remember 20 years from this season, especially if he wins a National Player of the Year award in the coming weeks and has his number hanging at the Disch for all-time in the process.
Go, Ivan, go.
No. 7 – BUY or SELL …
(Buy) I think the number is likely going to be one ... in week one. By the end of the season, the number could be three.
(Sell) Tucker-Dorsey could be that kind of player, as could other potential grad transfer options.
(Buy) The next five years feel too soon, but the NCAA is dying as I type. It's just a matter of when the death is called.
(Sell) The SEC isn't trying to get sued any more than the NCAA is.
(Sell) Apples and oranges from my perspective.
(Buy) You misspelled seconds.
(Buy) I'm not going to be shocked if we see a wave of commitments around the middle of the month in an effort to help swing the Arch Manning recruitment. Maybe the real question is whether there will be 6 or more commits by June 20.
(Sell) No, I don't know that I believe that, partly because he's received a benefit of the doubt from the recruiting services that few players that skip the camp circuit typically receive. Of course, if his name was Smith or Jones, he'd probably be more involved in the camp circuit.
(Buy) This is his last season at Alabama. This new NIL world is going to break him because of his inability to control the sport like he could before it arrived.
(Buy) He's got dirt all over him. The audacity from my perspective was galling.
(Sell) Not unless there's an injury to Quinn Ewers, which we all know isn't outside the realm of possibilities. It's a contact sport.
No. 8 - Scattershooting on the sports weekend ...
... I found myself just not caring about the PGA Championship this weekend. The right leaders just weren't on the leaderboard for me. Credit to Justin Thomas, though. He's now a two-time major winner and his presence at the top of the leaderboard moving forward might just grab my attention.
... Scottie Scheffler missing the cut was ... uh ... unexpected.
... Damn, the Heat are some kind of scrappy bunch. What a culture Pat Riley has built there.
... I've got nothing to say about the Mavs/Warriors other than the Suns ain't the Warriors.
... I'm hurting today as a Liverpool fan. It's beyond hard-core to have lost the league again by a point for the second time in four years, despite historically awesome performance levels. I really, really, really need the Reds to win in Paris this upcoming weekend for my own personal mental health.
... Kudos to Manchester City. I hate the fact that we were edged at the finish line by Sports-Washing FC, but there's no getting around the fact that they are a wonderful team. Tip of the cap.
... I have no idea what's happening in the Stanley Cup Playoffs.
No. 9 - The List: Top 10 U2 songs...
Five really good under the radar songs: Sometimes You Can't Make It On Your Own, Bullet The Blue Sky, Mofo, Kite and I'll Go Crazy If I Don't Go Crazy Tonight
Last five songs out: Moment of Surrender, New Year's Day, All I Want is You, Vertigo and Walk On
10. Bad
The jury has spoken and they demand this song makes the top 10. Upon second thought, I totally agree. This has to make the list for the buzz it created when performed at Life Aid (see link to song) back in 1985.
9. Desire
It's a bluesy song off the Rattle and Hum that is one of their most underrated songs.
8. Mysterious Ways
It's my second favorite song from Achtung Baby and one of the funkier sounding songs in their arsenal. The Edge is the star in this one.
7. I Will Follow
My favorite song off the Boy album, I've always been attracted to The Edge's guitar work in this underrated mixture of brooding punk/rock combo.
6. I Still Haven't Found What I'm Looking For
This was the song that exploded U2 on the American scene. I can't tell you how many times I watched the video to this song when it came out, but it has to be somewhere around a million. This gospel version from Rattle and Hum is pretty stellar.
5. Pride (In the Name of Love)
Written about Martin Luther King and recorded nearly 30 years ago, this song ranks as one of the first of the truly iconic songs in their catalog was released.
4. Sunday Bloody Sunday
No song in their catalog probably speaks more to them and reflects on where they come from more than this 1983 track that has emerged as one of the best anti-establishment rock songs of all-time.
3. Where The Streets Have No Name
Every element of the group's greatness is on display here, as all four members of the group combine tremendous individual elements to form the band's best live song and one of numerous treasures from The Joshua Tree album.
2. With or Without You
The group's masterpiece from The Joshua Tree album has a little bit of everything, including a great, haunting vocal from Bono and guitar play from The Edge that Bono has described as heart-ripping psychotic restraint.
1. One
Axl Rose cried the first time he heard this song. Listening to it this week was like hearing it for the first time because I connected with it in a way I hadn't really before. There's a place that Bono goes to in this song that reminds me of Kurt Cobain in Where Did You Sleep Last Night, which means that it's a standalone moment in the cannon of a group that has a host of all-time songs.
No. 10 - And Finally ...
Not all heroes wear capes. Shout out to Becca.
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