Ketch's 10 Thoughts From the Weekend (A look at the offensive mountains that must be climbed ...)
- Thread starter Ketchum
- Start date
I love the statistical analysis, but I fall back on Disraeli's quote that there are "lies, damned lies, and statistics."
The Big 12 has been a high octane offensive conference for the last decade, so it has taken inflated numbers to win. On the other hand, what our defense did last year to shut down a bunch of NFL quarterbacks and bigtime offenses was a huge outlier for Big 12 teams. If Orlando fields a squad like last year's, I don't think we need a "Big 12 Champ" caliber offense (as measured by the past 10 years) to win this thing. We need to do a lot of simple things better, but I wouldn't use the metrics above as an inviolable rule for success.
Still, that was a fun analysis and definitely food for thought.
Oh, and yes, welcome to your 40's, where the perfect vacation is 2-3 days of having the house to yourself and not having to go anywhere or do anything. It's glorious.
The Big 12 has been a high octane offensive conference for the last decade, so it has taken inflated numbers to win. On the other hand, what our defense did last year to shut down a bunch of NFL quarterbacks and bigtime offenses was a huge outlier for Big 12 teams. If Orlando fields a squad like last year's, I don't think we need a "Big 12 Champ" caliber offense (as measured by the past 10 years) to win this thing. We need to do a lot of simple things better, but I wouldn't use the metrics above as an inviolable rule for success.
Still, that was a fun analysis and definitely food for thought.
Oh, and yes, welcome to your 40's, where the perfect vacation is 2-3 days of having the house to yourself and not having to go anywhere or do anything. It's glorious.
As reported about a month ago in the War Room, there is expected to be massive layoffs of more than 100 people in the department in the next month or so.
I might have played poker if I hadn't had someone empty my account this weekend with fraud. Thousands spent. Today is going to be a pain in the ass.
#10. Welcome to adulthood. Enjoy these years with your kids even when they drive you crazy because you will turn around and they are gone.
Truer words have never been spoken.Well, golf can't always be "You Got Mail."
Is that your requisite certainty level? I’m not sure I know anything with 100% certainty. I’m more of a “more likely than not” guy (a/k/a 50.01%).
History suggests otherwise.
Mack always listed 200 yards as the number his teams had circled each week. In a perfect world, he wanted a 200/200 balance.
Best part of the weekend is when the kids came home.
@Ketchum, let’s talk about the elephant in the room (no pun intended): how much cheating did you do this weekend when it comes to diet and exercise?
Fair point.
I'm not sure how anyone could have as much as 50.01% certainty on the topic.
I suppose I could have written, I bummed around the house watching movies when I wasn't jumping rope, walking the dogs, using the bathroom,showering, talking on the phone or making a trip for lunch.
All good. I was trying to make positive suggestions. I’ll refrain from doing so in the future.
BUY or SELL: Tom Herman delivers us a Natty before Chip Kelly gets one?
(Sell) I will no longer accept questions involving Texas winning a national title under Tom Herman until the team plays in a Big 12 Championship game. It's embarrassing.
@Ketchum, what is "emabarrassing" about speculation that Herman wins a national championship here?
Because he went 7-6 in year one with an offensive backfield where the three most talented players were all true freshmen? With an offensive line that, because of injuries and lack of depth, had guys starting that before the season, no one thought would get meaningful snaps? (Or are you telling me that you had Cuney and Kerstetter pencilled in?)
I get that Herman may or may not be the answer here, and that winning a national championship is a hope but not an expectation, but I don't see a need to be embarrassed about discussing the possibility.
(Sell) I will no longer accept questions involving Texas winning a national title under Tom Herman until the team plays in a Big 12 Championship game. It's embarrassing.
@Ketchum, what is "emabarrassing" about speculation that Herman wins a national championship here?
Because he went 7-6 in year one with an offensive backfield where the three most talented players were all true freshmen? With an offensive line that, because of injuries and lack of depth, had guys starting that before the season, no one thought would get meaningful snaps? (Or are you telling me that you had Cuney and Kerstetter pencilled in?)
I get that Herman may or may not be the answer here, and that winning a national championship is a hope but not an expectation, but I don't see a need to be embarrassed about discussing the possibility.
We have a championship level defense. We don’t need Vince Young, Or Colt to win this conference. Solid QB and RB play is all we need, but we can’t win with attroucuious O Line play. It takes an elite QB to succeed with the o line play we had a year ago.
Yep. Entirely different. And that will not happen until Herman gets a new OC.
Welcome to the club. Boredom is actually what I strive to achieve when mom and the kids leave the house. I can watch R rated movies, blow my diet, and do absolutely nothing. It is glorious!!
To win this league is to run the RPO to perfection. You have to be able to line up spread out, then read the defense and then get in a "plus" play. After that yoi have to execute. The teams that can make you hurt when you finally get out of that 6 man box are the ones that have been winning the past 5 or so years.
Until Texas can get the QB play to get that extra LB out of the box, the will struggle with the run and pass protection.
Furthermore, when they do see a 5 man front, they have to have the ability to absolutely punish it. Those Baylor teams were hitting homeruns vs those fronts. We have to be able to make teams flat out refuse to do it out of fear.
Until Texas can get the QB play to get that extra LB out of the box, the will struggle with the run and pass protection.
Furthermore, when they do see a 5 man front, they have to have the ability to absolutely punish it. Those Baylor teams were hitting homeruns vs those fronts. We have to be able to make teams flat out refuse to do it out of fear.
I would concur with your contention!
Good that you were bored with your aloneness. These moments teach us just how vital family is in our lives and that the things we complain about the most -- noise, crying, fighting, commotion -- are the things we actually love and need to make us feel whole and balanced.
The silence of a Dad's home without his family and dogs is deafening. For the first few hours, sometimes even a day, it is glorious, and then it becomes sad and boring after you have watched some items you wanted to watch and run a few errands you needed just for you. . By the end of their time away I am ALWAYS ready for them to come back. God's way of letting you know how to be humble and grateful.
Ketch, you are a pessimist! Texas doesn’t need to improve to the offensive standard of Oklahoma to win because we play defense. Stir your drink and Tom will deliver.
Last week in this column, I explored the areas of quarterback play connected to winning a Big 12 championship this decade.
Inside of that bucket of information was a pathway towards the level of play needed from Texas quarterbacks this season if the goal is to win the conference. Ironically, the signs pointed to needing something similar to the type of season that David Ash enjoyed in 2012, which was an odd thing to discover when you consider that few people were losing their minds of Ash's improved level of play because everyone was waiting him to reach near-Colt McCoy levels.
It got me to thinking about the rest of the offense, primarily the running backs and offensive line.
Now that we have a good idea of what it will take at the quarterback position, what about the other areas of concern on the offense? Just how much improvement is needed? What exactly does it take on the offensive side of the ball to win a Big 12 title?
Answering those questions is where we're headed...
No. 2 - The big trend in the running game ...
For a league that is known for its high-powered passing games, the Big 12 has actually turned into a league where having a great running game is an absolute must. Check out the running game numbers per game from the last 10 Big 12 champions this decade:
2010 Oklahoma (138.0 ypg)
2011 Oklahoma St. (158.6 ypg)
2012 Kansas St. (194.0 ypg)
2012 Oklahoma (161.4 ypg)
2013 Baylor (259.7 ypg)
2014 Baylor (215.5 ypg)
2014 TCU (206.8 ypg)
2015 Oklahoma (222.1 ypg)
2016 Oklahoma (236.8 ypg)
2017 Oklahoma(217.8 ypg)
The last six Big 12 champions have all averaged more than 200 yards per game and it's quite clear that since Oklahoma won the Big 12 in 2010 with a pretty paltry 138.0 yards rushing per game, the numbers have seriously spiked. In fact, the median number for the last 10 champions is 201.1 yards per game. Since 2013, the average jumps to 226.6 yards per game.
A year ago, the Longhorns averaged 139.0 yards per game. Based on the recent historical data, the Longhorns actually need larger improvements in the running game than in the passing game, where the raw totals rank in the top 40 nationally, while the efficiency of those numbers ranks in the bottom 40 nationally.
In the case of the running game, everything ranks in the bottom 40. On the smaller end of the scale, the Longhorns need to average 62 more yards this season per game in order to hit the average over the last 10 champions this decade, but the trends in this league suggest that a little more work than the minimum might be needed.
Given that this is very much not an exact science, it's probably pretty simple to just say that the Longhorns need to average at least 200 yards per game on the ground.
No. 3 - Hello, big mountain ...
Now that we've looked at the raw running game numbers, let's pick that data apart slightly by looking at the efficiency of those running games. Here's a look at the yards per rushing attempt that each of the last 10 Big 12 champions have posted this decade:
2010 Oklahoma (3.3 ypc)
2011 Oklahoma St.(5.3 ypc)
2012 Kansas St. (4.8 ypc)
2012 Oklahoma (4.8 ypc)
2013 Baylor (5.4 ypc)
2014 Baylor (4.5 ypc)
2014 TCU (5.3 ypc)
2015 Oklahoma (5.0 ypc)
2016 Oklahoma (5.4 ypc)
2017 Oklahoma (5.6 ypc)
Once again, the 2010 Sooners represent a wild outlier inside the bigger volume of numbers. Only once since 2010 has a Big 12 champion averaged less than 4.5 yards per carry and it was that 2010 Bob Stoops-led team that pulled it off.
If you include the 2010 Sooners, the average yards per carry Big 12 running attack this decade is 4.9 yards per carry. If you exclude that Oklahoma team's numbers, the mean jumps to 5.12 yards per carry.
A year ago, the Longhorns averaged 3.6 yards per carry, which means that a major improvement is needed in the form of an additional 1.3 to 1.5 yards worth of improvement per carry.
No. 4 - Cutting down on the sacks ...
Let's take a look at the sacks per game numbers on offense of the last 10 Big 12 champions:
2010 Oklahoma (1.5 sacks per game)
2011 Oklahoma St. (0.9 sacks per game)
2012 Kansas St. (1.08 sacks per game)
2012 Oklahoma (1.15 sacks per game)
2013 Baylor (1.69 sacks per game)
2014 Baylor (1.85 sacks per game)
2014 TCU (1.77 sacks per game)
2015 Oklahoma (3.15 sacks per game)
2016 Oklahoma (1.62 sacks per game)
2017 Oklahoma (1.86 sacks per game)
It's a bit of a running theme, but the outlier in this group was yet another Oklahoma team, as the 2015 Sooners were the only champion this decade that allowed more than two sacks per game, allowing more than three per game!
That's actually half a sack more per game than last year's Longhorns averaged (2.62).
All things being equal, nine of the last 10 champions have allowed less than 1.86 sacks per game, which means that over the course of the upcoming season, Texas probably needs to chop about 10 sacks off of its numbers from a year ago.
No. 5 - Finally, let's look at the scariest set of numbers of them all ...
Let's take a look at points per game from the last 10 Big 12 champions:
2010 Oklahoma (37.2 ppg)
2011 Oklahoma St. (48.7 ppg)
2012 Kansas St. (38.78 ppg)
2012 Oklahoma (38.2 ppg)
2013 Baylor (52.3 ppg)
2014 Baylor (48.2 ppg)
2014 TCU (46.5 ppg)
2015 Oklahoma (43.5 ppg)
2016 Oklahoma (43.9 ppg)
2017 Oklahoma (45.1 ppg)
The average points per game for the last 10 champions is 44.2 points per game and not since 2013 has a team averaged less than 43 points per game.
A year ago, Texas averaged 29.5 points per game.
No. 6 – Summing it all up ...
So, after crunching the numbers, here are the levels of improvement that Texas probably needs to make this year on the offensive side of the ball.
Passer rating: +33.0 (from 125.0 to 158.0)
Average rushing yards per game: +61-71 (from 139 to 200-10)
Average yards per carry: +1-3-1.5 (from 3.6 to 4.9-5.1)
Sacks allowed: -0.8 (from 2.6 to 1.8)
Points scored per game: +14-15 (from 29.5 to 43.5-44.5)
In other words, Texas needs to be an entirely different offense this year from a year ago, which is not something anyone needs to be told. Yet, the levels of improvement that are needed are quite striking.
No. 7 – Buy or Sell …
BUY or SELL: A graduate transfer qb matriculates at Texas this Fall?
(Sell) I don't get the sense that Herman is sending signals that he will aggressively go after a grad transfer at this position, but I wouldn't rule it out, either.
BUY or SELL: Tom Herman is the real OC based on the subliminal messages you picked up on in his interview?
(Sell) I don't know if we're there yet, but I think he's going to be much more involved and if there's any struggle at all, he's going to take the wheel. Maybe by the end of the Maryland game.
BUY or SELL: Our QB group as a whole will be better this year but we will go another season without a true number 1 QB that starts all the games this season?
(Sell) I'm tired of giving players the benefit of the doubt because they are older and... well... just because. Buechele actually regressed from his questionable play from the end of his freshman season a year ago, and that happened with Tom Herman (an offensive coach) in charge of the team. There's no tangible proof yet that anyone is better among what has been an under-performing unit.
BUY or SELL: Tom Herman delivers us a Natty before Chip Kelly gets one?
(Sell) I will no longer accept questions involving Texas winning a national title under Tom Herman until the team plays in a Big 12 Championship game. It's embarrassing.
BUY or SELL: Texas wins 2 out of 3 (or better) vs OU, TCU and USC?
(Sell) I cannot confidently agree to such a thing, but I will absolutely admit that it's possible.
BUY or SELL: After year 1 and early year 2 recruiting, Jason Washington is the best recruiter in the Big 12?
(Buy) That dude should be calling me up and volunteering to be a source of mine with all of the love I've given him. Or a Plucker's gift card. Something.
BUY or SELL: Herman’s next assistant coach hire (non coordinator) has extensive California ties for recruiting purposes?
(Sell) I'm thinking the Metroplex.
BUY or SELL: if Shaka has another tough year, CDC have the guts to fire him?
(Buy) A blood bath is about to hit the athletic department and when it's over, no one will question whether Chris Del Conte has the guts to fire anyone.
BUY or SELL: Snoop comes back for his senior year and helps Shaka stay another year?
(Buy) It's common sense to be, which means I probably should have sold, right? When does common sense win out these days?>
BUY or SELL: Ketch uses the term "poor mans so 'n so.." at least twice in this weeks article.
(Sell) This was a poor man's @CenTex Horn post, but that's only the first time I've made a poor man's reference in the entire article. Sucker!
BUY or SELL: You would take a job at TexAgs if you got to be the owner and got a 80% raise?
(Sell) I once asked Al Green if he ever got tired of singing "Let's Stay Together" after all these years and he told me, "Never, that's my baby."
Those words ring really true because Orangeblooods is my baby.
BUY or SELL: Your moms influenc'e in some way has helped you in your profession? Explain!!!!
(Buy) Oh man, the examples are numerous. For instance, I got my foot in the door at KEYE-TV back in 1995 because my mom was a sales person at the station. Or the fact that she let me live under her roof in college, while I worked for low wages at the tv station and made average grades in school. She basically supported my dream of being in the sports media from the day the idea hatched when I was about five years old. From moving me to Austin to allowing me live an obscenely sports-centric life, she's been involved in everything for me along the way.
No. 8 – Let the real NBA Finals begin...
We've been waiting for it all year, but we finally get the Rockets/Warriors series that we've all been waiting for.
Give me the Warriors in six.
The Rockets have been poking the bear all year and I think they won't like what the bear does now that he's woken.
I have a ton of respect for this Rockets team, but the Warriors are coming and they are going to bring hell with them.
No. 9 – Eternal Randomness of the Spotty Sports Mind …
... Unless the Boston Celtics cool off, that team is going to the NBA Finals out of the East. That team is on a roll right now and the Cavs are too disjointed to beat them four out of seven times in my mind.
... Confession: With Webb Simpson basically running away with The Player's Championship, I think I watched about five minutes of golf this weekend. Congrats, Webb... I guess.
... Confession: That's five more minutes than I watched of Major League Baseball over the weekend.
... I promise you guys that when Liverpool wins the Champions League Final in two weeks, I will not be insufferable about it.
... Man City got to 100 points. Tip of the cap, this morning to that team. Wow.
... Did Antonio Conte deliberately try to lose yesterday for Chelsea? My eye's popped out of my head when I saw that he had Ross Barkley in the starting line-up in a critical game with a lot potentially on the line. It felt like a middle finger to management to me.
... Really enjoyed watching the Bundesliga's final Saturday of the season on Goal-Zone (which is similar to the NFL's Red Zone Channel). Lots of goals with lots of the line. It was two hours well-spent, which was nearly two hours more of my time than I spent watching golf and baseball combined.
No. 10 – And Finally …
I've evolved into a boring 41-year old man.
My wife took the kids to Houston this weekend, leaving me home alone for more than 48 hours and what I learned is that without my family, I'm just a bored out of my mind old.
Instead of getting of the house or trying to organize something with friends, I just bummed around the house on Friday and Saturday, watching pieces of about 15 different movies. (Just for the record, I watched all of You've Got Mail.)
No poker. No friends. No strip clubs. No partying. Just wishing I was with my family when I finally had a day of quiet.
I'm all for positive suggestions. Maybe just be careful with assumptions, unless you are at least 50.1-percent sure.
