The door is wide open.
Glaring right at the Texas Longhorns through that door is the 2023 Big 12 title trophy.
Will Texas walk through the damn door?
I'm not quite ready to slap a 10-2/conference title expectation on Steve Sarkisian's third team in Austin, but when you look around the league, it's hard not to ask, "Why not?"
Just take a look around the league.
National runner-up TCU is losing Max Duggan, Kendre MIller, Quentin Johnston, Derius Davis, two all-conference offensive linemen, Tre’Vius Hodges-Tomlinson and Dee Winters. That might not be everyone from the team that beat Michigan in the playoffs, but it's pretty damn close. No offense to the Horned Frogs, but it's hard to imagine TCU being in a position to compete for a conference title.
If so, maybe Sonny Dykes is the best coach in the Big 12.
Meanwhile, things don't look much better for defending champion Kansas State after the departures of Deuce Vaughn, Felix Anudike-Uzomah, Julius Brents and Malik Knowles. Those are four huge losses and the departures don't stop there. The Wildcats aren't at a level as a program that they can sustain such huge talent losses and not skip a beat.
The only other team that finished above .500 in conference play in 2022 outside of Texas was Texas Tech. Oklahoma State, Baylor and Oklahoma all finished 3-6.
Dillon Gabriel is probably the best returning quarterback in the conference ... I guess. Kansas State's Will Howard without all of those offensive weapons?
I'm not saying that the Big 12 will be dreadful as a league or anything like that, but what I am saying is that I don't know who in the hell is actually going to be any good in 2023.
Of course, that includes the Longhorns. Replacing Bijan Robinson, Roschon Johnson and a number of key defensive pieces won't be easy. Hell, it remains to be seen just how good the quarterback play is going to be or whether Steve Sarkisian can stop losing games he shouldn't, especially on the road.
Yet, I can probably make as strong of a case for the Longhorns to win the Big 12 this season as I can for anyone else, but it feels like we've said that a bunch over the years.
The Big 12 will come down to development, coaching and someone getting a quarterback to play at a high level.
There might not be a more open path in front of the Longhorns for a very long time.
No. 2 - A peek at the edge position
Unless the Longhorns find someone in the Portal in the May window, it's likely that someone with less than 40 snaps on defense a year ago is going to be holding down the fort off the edge on the Texas defense.
Same with the primary back-up at the position. It's a unit that figures to be the youngest and most inexperienced of any on the team, although running back and the linebacker position next to Jaylan Ford figure to be young and inexperienced as well.
Here's my early handicapping of the battle.
1. Sophomore Ethan Burke
He might look a little lean at first glance, but he played very well in limited playing time he received on defense last season. According to @Alex Dunlap, Burke had "a team-best 3.63 snaps-per-production-caused among Texas defenders who had at least a double-digit snap count." Burke hasn't done enough to be the obvious starter going into September, but the underlying numbers suggest he should be the betting favorite.
2. Redshirt freshman J'Mond Tapp
It's tough to know what to make of Tapp because he was clearly not ready to play as a freshman, at least if the coaches playing him in only two games tells us anything. Even if he doesn't start ahead of Burke, there's so little proven depth around him that it becomes very important that he be ready to play in 2023.
3. True freshman Colton Vasek
It'll be interesting to see how quickly he can get himself in the mix because it's hard to imagine Tapp is wildly ahead of him when the team begins spring workouts.
4. True freshman Tausili Akana
The fact that he's not a spring enrollee and probably needs at least a year in the strength program points to a very limited first-year impact.
Honestly, it feels like a lot of pressure is being placed on Burke because no one else is someone that you can remotely bank on coming into this season. Hell, I'm not sure that Burke is someone you can bank on.
I'm not saying I would unofficially "pretend" to influence someone else's player so that they would jump in the Portal in May, but I'd at least have to think about it.
No. 3 - The weight on Anthony Hill's shoulders ...
As one of the top linebackers in the Class of 2023, true freshman Anthony Hill didn't come to Texas because he wanted to blend in and become a decent player over time.
Hill is in Austin as a mid-term enrollee because he wants to make an immediate impact.
With a wide open path to the starting line-up, it's hard to find anyone that hasn't penciled in Hill's name next to returning senior Jaylan Ford in the starting line-up at linebacker for the Texas defense.
If not Hill ... David Gbenda? Jett Bush?
No, it needs to be Hill from the start this season, but I want to acknowledge before he even takes part in a single spring football drill that this is one hell of an ask to make of a true freshman linebacker, even a five-star.
Going all the way back to 1995, the only linebacker for the Longhorns that has started the first game of his true freshman season is Malik Jefferson in 2015. Not Derrick Johnson (although he should have). Not Jordan Hicks. Not anyone. Just Jefferson.
Crazy, huh?
I don't write any of this to pour water on the idea of Hill making a first-year impact. Instead, I just want to acknowledge that what is being asked of him upon his arrival isn't some ordinary thing and if he pulls it off seamlessly, it will be quite out of the ordinary.
No. 4 - About Warren Roberson ...
I'll have more on Roberson in an instant analysis commitment report whenever the moment calls for it, but I'm a fan of taking Roberson for the following reasons...
a. In a very strong class of prospects, Roberson probably ranks smack dab in the middle of the commitment list in terms of a 1-25 ranking. This is some late lottery ticket that the Longhorns would be taking the chance on. He's really good.
b. He's talented enough to play for the Longhorns in all three phases of the game. I like guys that can do everything and play everywhere.
c. He's a fantastic special teams player. I could see him playing on coverage units as a true freshman.
No. 5 - OU and A&M Junior Days ...
With the Longhorns having a fairly quiet weekend leading up to the looming dead period, arch-rivals Texas A&M and Oklahoma held Junior Day events. In the name of keeping one eye on both of them at all times, here's a look at how both schools performed this weekend.
Texas A&M: After somewhat struggling to get in-state difference makers to attend last week's Junior Day, the Aggies had a much better time of it on Saturday without the Longhorns blocking the road to College Station.
Super Blue Chip Visits
The state's No. 1 prospect hasn't given the Aggies a ton of his attention in the last six months, so getting him on campus this weekend had to feel like a small win. The Aggies likely have a long way to go to make a real dent with Hudson, but you can't win if you're not in the game and the hope they'll have coming out of the weekend is that they are in the game.
As far as I can tell, this is the first time that Black has been on the A&M campus for an unofficial visit since last summer, which means the Longhorns have had three consecutive appearances (from the Pool Party in July through last weekend) without the Aggies breaking up the run. Considering that this is at least his fourth visit to College Station since 2021, it's not insignificant that Steve Sarkisian has been able to see so much of him in Austin for the last 6+ months without almost any other school interrupting that stretch. It seems like he left A&M on Saturday reminded of why he had previously visited so many times. This feels like a possible Texas vs A&M showdown in the coming months.
Borderline Super Blue Chips/Notable Names
The younger brother of Adrian Peterson isn't a player that Texas has prioritized at all, so this is a jab that doesn't really land on the chin of the Longhorns, but I'm curious to see if this turns into an A&M/OU battle the way it ended up being late in Peterson's recruitment. The Sooners are currently all over Duncanville's Caden Durham and really haven't been on Arthur's front door. It's kind of crazy to me that the brother of Adrian Peterson isn't a priority for the Sooners.
Ignore his current three-star status because his stock is going to the moon. After raving about his visit to Texas last week, JJA going to College Station this weekend isn't ideal, but the truth of the matter is that his recruitment isn't as far down the road as many of his peers. Hell, at this point Texas Tech has been at the forefront of his recruitment. The last two weekends are likely the beginning of a pretty eventful stretch of his recruitment.
Williams has been to Texas five times since last April, so it's clear that the kid has a serious liking of the Longhorns. It's going to be interesting to see whether he makes a return trip to College Station before the summer. That might give us an idea of just how into the Aggies he is after pretty much bathing in burnt orange for much of the last year.
See above. Warren really enjoyed his visit last weekend in Austin, but this visit to A&M is likely the continuation of the opening stretch of a recruitment that could just be starting. It'll be interesting to see which school gets the next visit between the two in the next few months.
Oklahoma: It was a damn good weekend for the Sooners, who had 35% of my current Top 20 prospects in the state on campus. On top of that, the OU basketball team beating a top-five team in basketball seemed to send the energy on campus through the roof, which the prospects visiting certainly seemed to feel.
Super Blue Chip Visits
This was at least Durham's fourth visit to Norman in the last months. Yes, he visited LSU last weekend, but the Sooners feel like the clear team to beat at this point.
This was Smith's sixth visit to OU in the last 10 months, which is easily the most trips he's taken to any school factoring in his recruitment. In the last week, Smith took two visits - one in the mid-week to Oregon and another trip to Norman. The Longhorns really need to get him on campus a couple of times in the spring if they are going to win this recruitment.
Borderline Super Blue Chips/Notable Names
There's growing speculation that Hawkins could announce a decision for the Sooners in the coming weeks/months. Obviously, his recruitment isn't really related to the Longhorns in any way.
This is Wesco's third trip to Norman in less than a year, the most visits to any single school he's visited. Another player that the Longhorns haven't offered at this point, you'd have to say the Sooners are the current team to beat.
Regarded as an A&M lean after visiting numerous times in the last 12 months, this appears to have been his first visit to Norman. It'll be interesting to see if this weekend left any kind of dent in that A&M lead.
If you're the Longhorns, you would have liked to have had him on campus for a visit this month instead of watching him go to A&M last weekend and OU this weekend. He's maintained all along that he's no sure-thing for the Longhorns just because his brother was a freshman in burnt orange this season. It's kind of hard to tell exactly where this recruitment is going, but OU, A&M and Texas all figure to be in the final five ... maybe the final three.
Yet another kid that the Sooners have had on campus a lot in the last two years and another kid that the Sooners and Longhorns don't seem to be fighting against each other at all for.
The Longhorns went into the weekend as a heavy favorite and the Sooners were likely trying to land a blow that could simply give him something to think about. Smith swears that he's not close to a decision and that his recruitment will go into the late summer at the very least. It's interesting to note this comment he made to Rivals this week about Texas: "The linebackers (stand out)," he said. "To me, that's LBU. I talk to Coach Choate sometimes, he gets me fired up. I talked to Coach Sark one time on the field and I just felt the atmosphere. I like Texas, I'm right in their backyard."
Other in-state names worthy of mentioning that visited: RB James Peoples, RB Jeremy Payne and Jaydan Hardy
No. 6 - Visit breakdown...
Over the last month or so, @Suchomel and I had noticed that the Rivals database wasn't as up-to-date with regards to visits made by prospects as it needs to be. Therefore, I spent a good part of the last week going through every single article and post made on social media that I could find that would help me get the visits made by the top 100 in the state of Texas as perfect as possible.
Of course, there are times when kids will make an unofficial visit to a school and it's never reported on and the athlete never mentions it on social media ... so the following data-points aren't perfect. Yet, I think in some cases these visit lists tell a story/
Therefore, here's a look at Top 20 uncommitted prospects in the Lone Star State from my updated LSR Top 100 and where they've visited heading into the spring.
1. WR Micah Hudson (Lake Belton): Texas (4 visits - 1/21/23, 10/1/22, 9/10/22 and 6/11/22), Texas Tech (2 visits), Ohio State LSU, Oklahoma (1 visit), TCU (1 visit) and Texas A&M (one visit)
2. Edge Colin Simmons (Duncanville): Texas (4 visits - 11/12/22, 6/11/11, 4/16/2 and 1/22/22) and LSU (2 visits - 9/10/22 and 6/25/22), Oklahoma (2 visits - 6/1/22 and 4/23/22), Georgia (1 visit - 1/14/23), A&M (1 visit), Oregon (1 visit) and TCU (1 visit)
3. QB DJ Lagway (Willis): Committed to Florida
4. WR GeKyle Baker (Brownsboro): Texas (2 visits - 1/21/23 and 10/15/22)
5. DB Kobe Black (Waco Connally): Texas (4 visits - 1/21/23, 9/10/22, 7/28/22 and 1/22/22), Texas A&M (4 visits - 1/28/23, 6/17/22, 4/9/22 and 6/10/21), Texas Tech (2 visits), Baylor (2 visits), Oklahoma State (2 visits), TCU (1 visit), Texas Tech (1 visit) and Oklahoma (1 visit),
6. RB Caden Durham (Duncanville): Oklahoma (4 visits), TCU (1 visit), Alabama (1 visit), LSU (1 visit) and Mississippi State (1 visit)
7. DE Nigel Smith (Melissa): Oklahoma (6 visits), Texas (3 visits - 4/9/22, 1/22/22 and 10/16/21), Notre Dame (2 visits), Rutgers (2 visits), Oregon (1 visit), TCU (1 visit), Pittsburgh (1 visit) and Penn State (1 visit)
8. OL Michael Uini (Copperas Cove): Texas (4 visits - 1/21/23, 11/12/22, 6/10/22 and 4/16/22), Baylor (2 visits), Alabama (1 visit), Georgia (1 visit), Oklahoma (1 visit) Texas A&M (1 visit) and Notre Dame (1 visit)
9. OL Max Anderson (Frisco Reedy): Oklahoma (3 visits), Alabama (1 visit), Arkansas (1 visit), Baylor (1 visit), LSU (1 visit), Tennessee (1 visit), Texas A&M (1 visit) and Clemson (1 visit)
10. DE Joseph Jonah-Ajonye (Conroe Oak Ridge): Texas (2 visits - 1/21/23 and 6/11/22), Texas A&M (2 visits - 1/28/23 and 6/16/22) and Baylor (1 visit)
11. QB Michael Hawkins (Frisco Emerson): Oklahoma (4 visits), TCU (2 visits), LSU (1 visit), Miami (1 visit), Texas (1 visit) and Texas A&M (1 visit)
12. WR Bryant Wesco (Midlothian) - (Oklahoma (3 visits), Texas Tech (2 visits), TCU (2 visits), Texas (1 visit - 6/11/22) and Baylor (1 visit)
13. DE Dealyn Evans (Longview Pine Tree): Committed to Texas A&M
14. WR Ernest Campbell (Refugio): Baylor (3 visits), TCU (2 visits) and Houston (1 visit)
15. Ath Hunter Moddon (Clear Creek): Committed to Texas (5 visits - 1/21/23, 11/12/22, 9/10/22, 6/11/22 and 1/22/22)
16. RB Frankie Arthur (Conroe Oak Ridge): Texas A&M (1 visit)
17. Ath Terry Bussey (Timpson): Texas A&M (3 visits), Texas (1 visit - 11/12/22), Baylor (1 visit), Oklahoma (1 visit) and Texas Tech (1 visit)
18. DE Zina Umeozulu (Allen): Oklahoma (2 visits), Texas A&M (2 visits), Texas (1 visit - 11/13/21), TCU (1 visit)
Note: Surely, Umeozulu has been to Austin more than once in the last two years, but that's the only date I was able to confirm)
19. LB Justin Williams (Conroe Oak Ridge): Texas (2 visits - 1/21/23 and 9/10/22), Oregon (2 visits), Texas A&M (2 visits), Alabama (1 visit) and TCU (1 visit)
20. WR Zion Kearney (FB Hightower): Texas A&M (3 visits), TCU (2 visits), Ohio State (1 visit), Texas Tech (1 visit) and Oklahoma (1 visit)
Only one player (Campbell) had someone other than Texas, Oklahoma or Texas A&M as the school he has visited the most often. The Longhorns either led or were tied with 6 (30%) of the players from the top 20.
No. 7 - When 70 points isn't enough ...
There's no shame in going to Knoxville this season and taking an L.
There's also no shame in how the men's basketball team has started Big 12 play, as the Longhorns exit the weekend tied for first place in the Big 12 standings with two other teams not named the Kansas Jayhawks.
Honestly, given the lack of success in the program over the last decade and the circumstances of his season, it's pretty damn remarkable that the players have kept the standard as high as they have.
Still, it's hard not to watch this team and wonder the following:
a. Can Texas stop good teams from scoring when they want?
b. Can Texas outscore good teams?
It's been an issue all season and not just when Chris Beard was still in the huddle. It started with the 85 points given up to Illinois in a loss. Then there was the 116 points given up in the team's next game on the schedule against a ranked team. The team responded against TCU in the next match-up against a ranked team in beating the Horned Frogs 79-75, but gave up 78 points a week later in a loss to Iowa State.
It happened again on Saturday in giving up 82 points to the Vols.
Texas just doesn't have enough offense in most games when this team gives up something close to 80 points. It asks too much of Marcus Carr when it happens, especially with Tyrese Hunter stuck in his funk (double digits in scoring in just 3 of his last 13 games).
There's just not enough shooting. Not enough natural scorers.
If this team is going compete for a conference title or make the Sweet 16, it's either going need to play better defense or find more scoring. At the moment, I'm not sure what is the most likely to occur.
No. 8 – BUY or SELL …
(Sell) This team could make a deep tournament with the right draw, so I think you have to leave room for a possible reward if he has a historical season, but I think that would be a mistake. Surely, Chris Del Conte isn't naive. I give it a 6% chance.
(Sell) I don't want a JAG taking snaps away from the young quarterbacks in practice all season. I'm also not sure what experienced quarterback is going to walk into a situation knowing that he's not going to play, barring an injury.
(Sell) Sark won't lose a lot of sleep over options he couldn't or didn't take because of their unavailability.
a. Proven edges in the Portal are/were hard to find and Texas just didn't make any ground on the likes of Jordan Burch (South Carolina). I think they tried to get involved with Burch, but he knew where he wanted to go when he entered. Finding a guy that justifies blocking the young talent the Longhorns have recruited is hard to find.
b. The edge that went to Oklahoma (Dasan McCullough) and his brother just seemed dead set on going to OU. No one else really had a chance.
c. Oregon outworked everyone for Burch.
(Sell) I think it's Warren Roberson and that's it.
(Buy)
I'm wondering if you mean 2023 or 2024? I'll go buy with boy.
With the 2023 class, I think Texas should have done more in their recruitments of Langham Creek WR Jaquaize Pettaway (Oklahoma), Colleyville Christian Academy defensive end Enow Etta (Michigan) and Crandall linebacker Samuel Omosigho (Oklahoma)
With the 2024 class, I'd say Duncanville running back Caden Durham, Refugio wide receiver Ernest Campbell and Round Rock cornerback Leonard Moore.
(Buy) I think this group might still be a season away.
(Sell) I'm not sure this team is going to make it out of the first weekend.
(Buy) I really can't speak of the old MNF groups that featured Cosell and Dandy Don, but it's easily the best group of my lifetime.
(Buy) I thought the group disappointed so much last season that it has to go up.
(Sell) 9-3 would keep him off the hot seat IMO.
(Sell) I can't think of worse nightmares, but it would definitely give opposing teams a lot to think about, especially when you add in Ja'Tavion Sanders.
No. 9 - Scattershooting on anything and everything ...
... Philadelphia got a damn cakewalk to the Super Bowl. Yes I'm bitter.
... Jalen Hurts is playing in the Super Bowl as a starting quarterback. I'm waiting for some of those old threads to get bumped in the next two weeks.
... Trent Williams, I feel you.
... *vomiting*
... Teams asking for permission to talk to Eric Bieniemy for offensive coordinator jobs is something else.
... It's really hard for me to imagine Aaron Rodgers playing for anyone other than the Packers.
... Was Stetson Bennett trying to show the NFL that he can be Baker Mayfield this weekend in Dallas? A real NFL player gets arrested at strip clubs in Dallas ...
... I won't be missing the NFL enough in April to watch the USFL. I think.
... I'd find somewhere else to stand if I was Kevin Hart.
... NBA refs need bigger senses of humor.
... Damnit, the Djoker won the Australian Open to tie Rafa at 22. That dude just won't stop winning.
... Liverpool's season gets more depressing by the day. *&%$!
No. 10 - The List: Breaking down the Oscars nominations ...
Yes it's kind of cool these days to hate on the current movies landscape, but I found myself pretty pleased as a fan of movies when Oscars nominations came out.
As I've previously disclosed, I freaking love Tar.
I fell asleep trying to watch to "Everything, Everywhere at Once" within 20 minutes the first time I tried viewing it (late at night), but when I came back around to it, I found myself emotionally connected and moved by a truly wonderful little movie.
Top Gun: Maverick rules. The Banshees of Inisherin is an instant re-watchable.
I don't know that I ever expect there to be four sensational films to root for going into the Oscars in any year, but that foursome is pretty fearsome. My only complaint was Babylon getting snubbed left and right.
Other than that, I'm fairly content with the movie year with six movies to watch left in front of me before I've seen everything that has a major nomination.
Here's a look at what at what my rankings for the big night look like at the moment.
Movies I Still Need To See: Avatar: The Way of Water, Living, To Leslie, Triangle of Sadness, The Whale and Woman Talking,
Best Movie
1. Tar
2. Top Gun: Maverick
3. Everything, Everywhere All at Once
4. The Banshees of Inisherin
5. The Fabelmans
6. All Quiet on the Western Front
7. Elvis
Biggest Snub: Babylon
Best Director
1. Daniel Kwan, Daniel Schreinert (Everything, Everywhere All at Once)
2. Todd Field (Tar)
3. Steven Spielberg (The Fabelmans)
4. Martin McDonagh (The Banshees of Inisherin)
Biggest Snub: Joseph Kosinski (Top Gun: Maverick)
Best Actor
1. Collin Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin)
2. Austin Butler (Elvis)
3. Paul Mescal (Aftersun)
Biggest Snub: Tom Cruise (Top Gun: Maverick)
Best Actress
1. Care Blanchett (Tar)
2. Michelle Yeoh (Everything, Everywhere All at Once)
3. Michelle Williams (The Fabelmans)
Biggest Snub: Margot Robbie (Babylon)
Best Supporting Actor
1. Brendan Gleeson (The Banshees of Inisherin)
2. Ke Huy Quan (Everything, Everywhere All at Once)
3. Brian Tyree Henry (Causeway)
4. Barry Keoghan (The Banshees of Inisherin)
5. Judd Hirsch (The Fabelmans)
Biggest Snub: Brad Pitt (Babylon)
Best Supporting Actress
1. Stephanie Hsu (Everything, Everywhere All at Once)
2. Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever)
3. Kerry Condon (The Banshees of Inisherin)
4. Jamie Lee Curtis (Everything, Everywhere All at Once)
Biggest Snub: Keke Palmer (Nope)
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