Ketch's 10 Thoughts From the Weekend (A special Memorial Day edition...)

[LonghornBuc]

The B/S on our QB and Plonsky in the press release are very interesting points.

I have to think Plonsky is walking down the plank, and she knows it. CDC may be holding her hand to make sure she goes, but to do it in a way that causes the least damage to the University.

As to QBs, not to raise the issue for the billionth time, but Shane is going to play, a lot. The emotional attachment many have to Sam is cute and all, but he has a long, long way to go as a QB. Like Ash, Swoopes and most of his predecessors, its really too bad he didn't get to redshirt. He has a lot of athletic ability, but he needed a year to learn. Shane did as well, but the kid is really underrated here.

 

[learnsome]

With that top ten, I can now understand why you think Shaka is damn good.

 

[jwrjr]

Nice write up; and, very nice tribute at the end. As for your top 10 NBA list, I am ok with the ten names; however, I would have Larry #6 and Hakeem #7. In the one NBA finals that they met, Hakeem schooled Shaq. Also, I believe a Hakeem-Wilt match up would have been worth any price of admission as Wilt would not have been able to keep up with The Dream on defense and Dream would have forced him away from the basket on offense and made him shoot shots not just dunk. Also worth the admission would be a Jordan-James face off.

 

[gravity26]

Wow I didn’t know that. Peter Wang... blown away by his act of heroism.

 

[great horndini]

I don't really have a smart recommendation because ... wait for it ... I'm not qualified to make one.

That doesn't seem to slow down or stop anybody else on this board (including me). That would actually take a lot of fun out of things.

 

[bujji1402]

Nice write up. Enjoyed it.

 

[CS]

Very nice. I would have Shaq at #3, in his prime he would have dominated Kareem and Chamberlin his size and strength can’t be matched. Also I would have Kobe above Duncan. But I agree with all 10 players just a different order.

Old man Kareem held his own against Hakeem, who outplayed Shaq in a Finals.

 

[johncoshea]

It wasn't fun. I'm telling you... very much like the 2010 national title game.

Yeah, I completely get that comparison.

 

[Live_To_Hunt]

Old man Kareem held his own against Hakeem, who outplayed Shaq in a Finals.

When Shaq was in Orlando which was certainly not his prime, the other guys might have had a longer prime but Peak to Peak I think Shaq would have dominated.
On a rankings list like that I usually think of the players at their peak not how long they extended their greatness, because by ranking them in a top 10 of all time you are already saying they are all great and then it comes down to peak performance.

 

[bozans]

it's obvious you never saw Oscar Robertson play- he's gotta be in the top 10

I saw him play at N.Tex. in the 50's --I had never seen anybody play BB like he did !!!!!!

 

[JNEW19]

Very nice. I would have Shaq at #3, in his prime he would have dominated Kareem and Chamberlin his size and strength can’t be matched. Also I would have Kobe above Duncan. But I agree with all 10 players just a different order.

Shaq May be the most dominant player I have ever seen if he was within 6 feet of the basket it was going to be an epic powerful throw down. I hope the league sees another like him some day.

 

[CS]

When Shaq was in Orlando which was certainly not his prime, the other guys might have had a longer prime but Peak to Peak I think Shaq would have dominated.
On a rankings list like that I usually think of the players at their peak not how long they extended their greatness, because by ranking them in a top 10 of all time you are already saying they are all great and then it comes down to peak performance.

Out of those three, which was closer to his peak?

• Hakeem in his early and mid-20s
• Shaq in his early 20s
• Kareem in his late 30s

If Kareem in his late 30s could hold his own against near-prime Hakeem, and if prime Hakeem could handle near-prime Shaq, why do we think prime Kareem couldn’t handle prime Shaq?

 

[Cure4BizCancer]

I am not proposing or poo-pooing a softball coach from within, but an interesting fun fact on corporate leadership you probably didn't know:

90%+ of all truly great companies (those that beat the stock market by 4X or greater for a sustained period of 15 years or more) are/were run by CEO's that were promoted from within.

And, thank you for 9 and 10.

 

[Live_To_Hunt]

Out of those three, which was closer to his peak?

• Hakeem in his early and mid-20s
• Shaq in his early 20s
• Kareem in his late 30s

If Kareem in his late 30s could hold his own against near-prime Hakeem, and if prime Hakeem could handle near-prime Shaq, why do we think prime Kareem couldn’t handle prime Shaq?

Hakeem is 9 years older than Shaq so if Shaq is early 20s Hakeem is probably 30, and a 20 year old Shaq in Orlando is no where close to what he was in 1999-2000 with the lakers. The best player out of that group is a 30 year old Hakeem but a 28 year old Shaq out muscles and beats a prime Kareem or Hakeem imo. The head to head battles don't work since their primes were not closely enough aligned.

Do you think Hakeem was a greater player?

 

[TexSoul]

The CDC question as to his perception of the offense is interesting... would be very interested in his perspective from all he has seen from the inside.

 

[Ketchum]

Is there a significance to a PER of 25? He had an avg PER of 19.4 in the postseason, with 4 seasons above 22. Also, defensive stats are not weighed in as heavily for PER. Which was Russell’s calling card. Not even going to get into his accolades but, I still find your reasoning kind of puzzling.

I think he was special in his era. I don't think he's special in every era.

 

[Ketchum]

Very nice. I would have Shaq at #3, in his prime he would have dominated Kareem and Chamberlin his size and strength can’t be matched. Also I would have Kobe above Duncan. But I agree with all 10 players just a different order.

I wouldn't argue you much. There's a tier of two, then a tier of 3-4 and then another tier.

 

[Ketchum]

#6: Leaving off Russell makes your entire list asinine, regardless of “advanced stats”. You know what the most “advanced” stat is? It’s called winning - and Russell is the King of that over any player on your list. They didn’t give out MVP’s like statistics chiclets in the 1960’s like they do now either (see Westbrook, Russell).

#4 & #8: While I too wish that Salah had played the whole game as well, you need to reign in the “Ramos is dirty, bad Ramos” yapping. Mo has had one really spectacular year, but Ramos is a generationally great CB who any fan would give his left nut to have on their team. He defines badass CB play and has all of the trophies to show for it at every conceivable level of futbol.

#9: Good save and God bless.

Russell's 10 rings completely overvalue him. He wouldn't be great in today's era.

 

[Ketchum]

I was thinking the same thing when Mo went down. Did you see the elbow Ramos threw at Karius too?? That guy’s play is filthy. Can’t stand that type of play.

I'd love him on my team.

 

[Ketchum]

it's obvious you never saw Oscar Robertson play- he's gotta be in the top 10

He might be the very next guy on my list, but no, I never watched Robertson.

 

[Ketchum]

With that top ten, I can now understand why you think Shaka is damn good.

well done.

 

[Ketchum]

Wow I didn’t know that. Peter Wang... blown away by his act of heroism.

I'm overwhelmed by his courage.

 

[Ketchum]

I am not proposing or poo-pooing a softball coach from within, but an interesting fun fact on corporate leadership you probably didn't know:

90%+ of all truly great companies (those that beat the stock market by 4X or greater for a sustained period of 15 years or more) are/were run by CEO's that were promoted from within.

And, thank you for 9 and 10.

I'm not sure the note about great companies extends to sports.

 

[EG-man]

​

Let's talk about Tyler Johnson, the Conroe Oak Ridge offensive lineman who committed to the Longhorns over the weekend.

I'm a big, big fan.

When I moved Johnson into the top 10 of the Lone Star Recruiting rankings earlier in the spring, the athletic dancing bear hadn't quite caught fire as a prospect from a recruiting rankings standpoint, but it was obvious to the naked eye when reviewing his film that this was a kid that would emerge as a high-level national prospect.

Four months later, he's a national top-75 prospect and committed to the Longhorns. Eventually, I believe he'll be rated as a high-four star prospect, which would match the traditional ranking that goes along with being on the cusp of the top 70. It might seem like an insignificant detail, but there's actually a stark difference between the quality of a top 75, high four-star prospect and the tier below it (mid-four-stars), which typically extends to the national top 150 or so.

The difference? Well, when it comes to projecting as an NFL drafted player, those in the top 75 (and ranked as high-four stars or higher) typically emerge as impact linemen worthy of serious attention from NFL teams at twice the rate as the next tier below them.

At the most basic level possible, it's the difference between 2:1 odds of eventually being drafted by an NFL team and 4:1 or 5:1 odds.

Therefore, while there's a lot of work to be done in the next four or five years of development for Johnson, he's a piece of clay that will arrive on the 40 Acres with an upside that's different from most.

Since the beginning of the decade, the Longhorns have signed only five such offensive line prospects: Trey Hopkins (2010 - No. 64 overall), Kennedy Estelle (2013 - No. 67 overall), Kent Perkins (2014 - No. 41 overall), Darius James (2014 - No. 65 overall) and Patrick Hudson (2016 - No. 61 overall).

Of that group, Hopkins was a solid college player, who emerged as a starter for the Cincinnati Bengals, but the other players created mixed (mostly poor) results. Perkins was merely an average college player, but has also emerged as an NFL player with the same Bengals squad as Hopkins, while Estelle and James flamed out of the program before they could make a real positive impact. Meanwhile, it's too early to properly judge Hudson, who was injured last season right at the moment when he seemed to be coming on.

I'd contend that the Longhorns are due to hit on one of these elite-level prospects, since you'd probably have to go back to Tony Hills in 2003 to find an elite offensive line prospect that truly lived up to the massive expectations that come with being such a highly-regarded prospect.

No. 2 - Some softball coaching scuttlebutt ...

There's been some discussion that the Longhorns could replace former coach Connie Clark with a hire from within, with assistant Tripp McKay listed as the primary possibility.

In asking around this weekend, I'm not sure I made any real headway in locking down the direction Chris Del Conte will go with this hire, but I will keep digging.

I have to be honest, I don't know much about the women's softball coaching market. I don't really have a smart recommendation because ... wait for it ... I'm not qualified to make one.

I just wonder how everyone might feel about making a hire from within?

No. 3 - You could see it coming a mile away ...

I think the best thing that could happen to the Texas Longhorn baseball team is that there was actually a Big 12 Baseball Tournament for it to flame out in before the start of the NCAA Tournament.

In retrospect, it was impossible to think that there wouldn't be a bit of a hangover following a pretty magical weekend, which occurred only a few days before the start of the Tournament.

A more experienced winner probably would have handled the situation better, but Texas baseball is no longer an experienced winner. That mental strength will need to be rebuilt and the events from this weekend will be part of the lesson that will be learned.

For now, this team needs to recharge its batteries, shake off the results from the Tournament and prepare itself for the true second season.

No. 4 – Buy or Sell …

BUY or SELL: The quarterback play will have more to do with the success or failure of the offense this year than Coach Beck's play calling?

(Buy) Obviously, there's some crossover between these two issues, but good quarterback play can mask poor play-calling better than great play-calling can mask poor quarterback play.

BUY or SELL: As of today 5-27-2018, you feel Texas will finish with a top-10 class in recruiting? I know this question has been worn out and the landscape continuously changes.

(Buy) Last year, Florida State was the No. 10 team in the national rankings, finishing with one five-star, 15 four-stars and an average star ranking of 3.76. Texas currently has eight commitments, with five currently rated as four stars. So, it comes down to whether you believe the coaches will finish with another 11-12 four-stars, which I believe they will. It might be close, though.

BUY or SELL: Chris Del Conte will be critiquing the offensive performance this year. If the offense still stutters by mid season he’ll force Herman to change things up.

(Sell) I don't believe that at all.

BUY or SELL: A team can have too many quarterbacks, defensive backs and wide receivers on campus and in the pipeline?

(Sell) There's not a position on the field you can have too many of. The entire purpose of elite recruiting, year-in and year-out, is so that you always have volume.

BUY or SELL: Texas beats Maryland on Sept. 1, destroys Tulsa on Sept. 8, and then beats USC convincingly in Austin on Sept. 15.

(Sell) I could see beats Maryland, beats Tulsa and gets by USC, which I would imagine would be good enough.

BUY or SELL: Despite winning its first three games of the year, Texas still hasn't settled on a starting quarterback.

(Buy) I'm not buying a lot of stock in the Texas offense right now.

BUY or SELL: The Longhorn men will play for a national championship in one of the big three sports in the next five years.

(Sell) I still can't buy that. Hope like hell I change it to a buy soon.

BUY or SELL: Longhorns win a national championship -- any sport -- before you spend $100 (your own money) at a strip club again!

(Buy) Eddie Reese will win another national title before I go back to a strip club ... I think.

BUY or SELL: It was not an accident that Chris Plonsky was not mentioned or quoted in the press release regarding the resignation of Connie Clark?

(Buy) There are no accidents.

BUY or SELL: You cheat by using the Buy or Sell questions to help you come up with a theme for your 10TFTW column, then pick from the remaining B/S questions that are okay.

(Sell) I "cheat" occasionally, but usually I take notes on what I want to write about during the week and by the time I get to the weekend, I'm pretty good with topics. It probably happens once a month or so where I'll steal an idea or concept for an entire section.

BUY or SELL: Sergio Ramos is a dirty player and accomplished what he set out to do to Mo Salah?

(Sell) Ramos is a dirty player and I think he absolutely meant to give Salah some rough treatment with his intentional efforts to hold Salah's arm as they went to the ground in the Champions League final, but I don't think anyone could have guessed that it would cause the damage that it did.

BUY or SELL: If the Eagles, the Beatles, and the Beach Boys held a winner-take-all poker game, the Eagles would win?

(Buy) As a band, the Eagles were some card-playing deviants and Glenn Fry was a card-shark among his group.

No. 5 - Appreciate the greatness in front of you...

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No. 6 - For the record...

These are my top 10 all-time NBA players.

1. Michael Jordan
2. LeBron James
3. Magic Johnson
4. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
5. Wilt Chamberlin
6. Shaquille O’Neal
7. Tim Duncan
8. Kobe Bryant
9. Larry Bird
10. Hakeem Olajuwon

No. 7 - Predictions, predictions, predictions...

a. Kevin Durant plays his best game of the series in game seven of the Western Conference Finals on Monday night.

b. James Harden plays an even better game - 38 points, 11 rebounds and eight assists.

c. Eric Gordon has a bigger impact tonight than either of the Splash Brothers.

d. Rockets win 115-110.

No. 8 – Eternal Randomness of the Spotty Sports Mind …

... It goes without saying that LeBron James finding a way to win a game seven on the road with Jeff Green and J.R. Smith in the starting line-up goes down as one of the great achievements of his career. The Cavs will get smashed in the finals, but winning on the road in game seven is a rare deal.

... Jayson Tatum is going to be a bad dude for a very long time in the NBA. Imagine him in Philly right now instead of Markelle Fultz ...

... The Celtics have some interesting personnel decisions to make in the next couple of off-seasons.

... After a five-hit game two days ago, this Mike Trout stat is goofy:

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... Headline on ESPN.com that kind of scared me: "There's no question Cowboys are Dak Prescott's team now"

... Josh Freeman retired from the CFL this weekend. Who knew?

... Like Texas fans following the 2010 national championship game, I'm going to forever wonder "what if" when it comes down to this weekend's Champions League final. Liverpool was the better team in the first 25 minutes of the game - creating chances and making Real Madrid uncomfortable ... and then everything changed when Mo Salah had to leave the field with injury. As it is, Real won the game on a wonder goal and two keeper mistakes. It's a bit frustrating that Liverpool didn't really make Real Madrid beat them. The Liverpool back four was outstanding, Ronaldo was rendered a non-factor and it was basically a push in the midfield. The difference was Gareth Bale, Loris Karius and the Salah injury.

No.9 - This will give you some perspective...

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No. 10 – And Finally …

To every single man and woman that has ever given the ultimate sacrifice, and the families that were forced to live with that sacrifice ...

From the bottom of my heart ...

Thank you. We might be a dysfunctional family right now, but you are never ... ever ... forgotten.

Not today. Not yesterday. Not tomorrow. Not ever.

You represent the best of us.

#7= jinx

 

[Baguette]

Got a little choked up after reading #10. So right-on.

 

[Buda Horn]

Its ridiculous to leave Russell out of your top 10. PER is probably the worst stat to evaluate Russell, considering offensive rebounds, blocks, and steals were not even recorded statistically until 1973. Giving Russell credit for his full rebounding and defensive impact likely would adjust his true PER more than any other player.

My criteria for the top 10... first I start with the top 8, who are the only 8 players to ever win multiple MVP awards, multiple finals MVP awards, and multiple NBA championships: Jordan, Russell, Wilt, Kareem, Duncan, Magic, Bird, and LeBron. Being the best player in the league multiple seasons and being the best player on multiple championship teams is what separates the greatest 8 of all time from the not quite as good like Kobe, Shaq, West, Oscar, and Hakeem.

Jordan and LeBron are the only two with a case for #1, and #1 is still in play for LeBron even if he isnt there yet.

Your argument that Russell wouldnt be great in any era breaks down when Russell always beat Wilt in the playoffs and you think Wilt could be great in any era.

 

[A-10HORN]

Wow I didn’t know that. Peter Wang... blown away by his act of heroism.

Man that was tough to read. What a special young man.

 

[Krose3425]

Russell's 10 rings completely overvalue him. He wouldn't be great in today's era.

I think he would have had a chance to be a HOF player in any era but in the recent trend of small ball he could very much be an effective player today. He was fairly athletic early in his career, rebounded well, blocked shots, could score and was an underrated passer. He may not have had a jump shot but he didn’t need it in that era. Who knows if he could have developed one if needed. Aside from that, you can’t rank a player based on what he may/may not have done in today’s league. The eras are so different from each other that you can’t compare the two. The crazy notion is discrediting 11(not 10) rings, 5 MVPs and 12 all star appearances, that’s just silly. How can you be overvalued for winning championships that you are an integral/leading part of. Yes, I know the league was smaller and talent was more concentrated but results are what matter. I mean, we are having discussions that LeBron is the GOAT because he simply made it to the finals.. not just the finals he has won, but simply made an appearance. With that, Russel still had more rings than LeBron has appearances. Again, puzzling.

 

[Cure4BizCancer]

I'm not sure the note about great companies extends to sports.

Why? Because of the turnover ratio of coaches to company leaders? I was thinking about that, too. Great leaders span every aspect of life. From coaches, to clergy, to teachers, to corporate leaders. You have been touched by great leadership at some point in your life. It didn't have to be your boss or your bosses boss.

The greatest coaches (Saban comes to mind) have most of the same traits as great corporate leaders.

Most Athletic Directors (and certainly most fans) don't understand great leadership, and think it is foretold by arrogance and flashy public display. That is the furthest from the truth. Most great leaders have two traits:
1. More concerned about the success of the organization (whatever type that is) than their personal fame.
2. Absolute dogged determination to succeed and take on any challenge they face head on.

Saban has a disdain for publicity and generally doesn't give a rat's ass what the reporters think about him. He will do anything to have his team be successful. He takes responsibility for all of the warts within his program. He is a great leader.

 

[Krose3425]

Russell's 10 rings completely overvalue him. He wouldn't be great in today's era.

I don’t have a problem with him not in the top 5 but not even in the top 10 is crazy even for you. I think he would have had a chance to be a HOF player in any era but in the recent trend of small ball he could very much be more than just an effective player. He was fairly athletic early in his career, rebounded well, blocked shots, could score and was an underrated passer. He may not have had a jump shot but he didn’t need it in that era, there wasn’t even a 3 point line yet. Who knows if he could have developed one if needed. Aside from that, you can’t rank a player based on what he may/may not have done in today’s league. The eras are so different from each other that it’s impossible to compare the two. The crazier notion is discrediting 11(not 10) rings, 5 MVPs and 12 all star appearances, that’s just silly. How can you be overvalued for winning championships that you are an integral/leading part of. Yes, I know the league was smaller and talent was more concentrated but results are what matter. I mean, we are having discussions that LeBron is the GOAT because he simply made it to the finals in 8 consecutive years.. not just for the finals he has won, but simply made an appearance. With that, Russel still had more rings than LeBron has appearances. Again, puzzling.