Does it even matter who starts at running back for the Longhorns in 2024?
Probably not.
But then again, it actually might matter. Although the Longhorns have rotated the top two backs on the roster quite a bit during Steve Sarkisian's three years in Austin, there's no debating the numbers that show that the starting running back usually gets touches at least on a 2:1 level.
At least 2:1.
Welcome to the great running back debate on the 40 Acres going into the 2024 season. Hey, we have to have something to argue with each other about for the remaining (almost) five months left in the off-season. Are you Team Baxter or Team Blue?
Personally, I've not given it a lot of thought since the start of spring workouts. I've just kind of assumed that Baxter would be 1a and Blue would be 1b going into the season, figuring that the battle between the two would be won in earnest once the 2024 season began, sort of like a year ago when Jonathan Brooks emerged as perhaps the best running back in the nation.
Yet, there are two things that I couldn't help but think about after Saturday's scrimmage in front of some of the nation's very best high school football prospects:
1. Jaydon Blue moves the needle. He's been talked about by sources all spring, but I was kind of surprised at how many of the prospects at the scrimmage made a point to single out Blue as perhaps the best player on the field on Saturday. According to my notes, a half-dozen players mentioned Blue in interviews with Orangebloods after being asked if anything stood out about watching the Longhorns work out. Offensive guys. Defensive guys. Not once were they led into a question by someone trying to get Blue's name mentioned. It was as generic as generic gets and Blue just kept getting mentioned.
It then occurred to me that it's kind of been like that throughout the spring. While there's been a lot of buzz about the order of three through six on the running back depth chart, any time the top two backs are mentioned by sources, it's usually someone raving about Blue.
2. Sarkisian and the staff really thought that CJ Baxter warranted starting over Jonathon Brooks last season and Brooks became the starter only when Baxter got hurt, missed a game and then Brooks just took ownership of the position by being the best player on the field against Wyoming. What happens if Baxter had never been hurt? How much of Brooks' workload would have cut into without the opening that Baxter's injury created?
Then there's this ... would Blue still be in Austin without the Brooks' injury? Outside of the opening game against Rice last season, Blue didn't receive more than five carries in a single game until Brooks was injured against TCU on November 11. After the Brooks injury, Blue's carries went up to (in order) 7, 10, 10 and 9 in the team's final four games. It was also during that time when he started being featured as a pass catcher, as he caught 13 passes for 128 yards (9.9 ypc).
Suddenly, it became very clear that Blue was a critical player to keep out of the Portal and steps were taken to make sure he was more than happy to stay in Austin. The player that actually led the team in yards per carry (by a tiny margin over Brooks) seemed to have just popped out of nowhere and his importance to the program came with it.
Whatever the roles are in a 1-2 punch of Baxter and Blue, the former Klein Cain star is the lightning part of the equation, the player that can seemingly keep every team Texas plays on its toes. He feels like the threat that can score from anywhere.
Meanwhile, Baxter's freshman season is just as curious as Blue's, but in different ways. Overall, Baxter enjoyed twice as many rushing attempts as Blue, despite averaging 1.4 yards less per carry and 3.4 less yards per reception than Blue on the season. In six of the 13 games that he played in as a freshman, Baxter averaged less than 4.0 yards per carry (3.3 vs Oklahoma State, 3.4 vs TCU, 2.4 vs BYU, 2.6 vs. OU, 3.5 vs. Baylor and 2.9 vs. Alabama).
Health was an issue for Baxter during much of the season, as he seemed to have nagging little injuries that didn't keep him out of games, but always seemed to limit his ability, if even slightly. In the season finale against Washington, he had one of his best games with 103 total yards of offense (Blue finished with 104 total yards), but his fumble in the third quarter was a critical moment of that game that helped Washington take a two-score lead with 7:44 left in the third quarter.
Two things feel true going into this spring.
1. Both players need to get better, but Baxter needs to make more improvements than Blue.
2. There's no quantifiable data point that points to Baxter being the better player once the season concluded.
So, here we are less than two weeks from the Texas spring game and it's finally dawning on me that maybe the running back discussion matters more than we've all admitted so far in the off-season. If the Michigan game was played tomorrow, I'd want Blue getting at least a 2:1 advantage in touches if I'm being 100-percent transparent.
Also don't take me for a Blue homer, as I was reminded in the last 24 hours that I had questions about his home-run speed after he ran 11.1 in the 100 meters of his district track meet as a junior. It seems silly questioning his speed (of all things) after he hit 22.3 MPH against Texas Tech, which was just behind Xavier Worthy's fastest-timed speed of the season (22.7), but I thought it was fair to wonder if he truly had elite of the elite explosiveness. When it comes to final recruiting rankings, I had Baxter ranked as a super blue chip and Blue as a something a little less than that.
I'm just telling you what my eyes see, the data confirms and numerous sources this spring have mentioned.
As it stands, I wouldn't be shocked if the distribution between Blue and Baxter is closer to 1:1 than 2:1 in any direction, but I wonder what would have to happen for Sarkisian to lean it more toward Blue.
No. 2 - Scattershooting on spring ball ...
... I thought it was interesting that three different prospects mentioned Quinn Ewers as a standout on Saturday on a day when the defense won the day and none mentioned Arch Manning in any capacity. Considering we know Ewers is more advanced and clearly the starter going into the season, I still thought it was kind of interesting that Manning wasn't mentioned at all ... considering all eyes must have been on him. Just a random thought.
... The running back battle between three through six on the depth chart feels like this: 3a. Christian Clark, 3b. Tre Wisner, 5. Jerrick Gibson, 6. Savion Red. If the tie-breaker goes to the player who is viewed as more explosive, then No. 3 is Clark.
... I haven't personally had anyone mention a tight not named Helm, Davis or Niblack since camp started. Not one person, not one time.
... It cannot be expressed enough that Dakorien Moore was impressed by Ryan Wingo. He raved about seeing Wingo in person on a day when Wingo kind of had a quiet scrimmage.
... This wide receiver unit isn't better than last year's group. None of these players deserve to be in the same discussion with Xavier Worthy and Adonai Mitchell at this point. There ... I said it.
... Is Lamont Rogers singling out Trevor Goosby as the most impressive lineman he watched (along with Kelvin Banks) a good thing or a bad thing for his recruitment? Maybe it's not a good or bad thing, but I'll tell you this ... Rogers definitely knows who Goosby is after Saturday.
... DJ Campbell got a little banged up on Saturday and was in a sling. I've heard nothing that suggests it's anything serious, but it might limit him in camp for the next two weeks and the guys behind him need to take advantage of the opportunity. Would they slide Neto Umeozulu over from the left side if he was going to miss a game? No one has suggested all camp that any of the other guards on the roster have been better than Umeozulu.
... Anthony Hill and Colin Simmons wreaking havoc on Saturday is music to the ears and food for the soul.
... I haven't had a single source mention another linebacker this entire spring outside of Hill, David Gbenda and (once) Derion Gullette. Do with that info what you will.
... Kobe Black is coming for someone's playing time.
No. 3 – My biggest takeaways from the Longhorns City Limits Recruiting Event ...
1. The momentum with Dakorien Moore is real. I'd push my chips into the Texas side of things if anyone asked me who I think wins out.
2. Pretty much feel the same way about Kaliq Lockett.
3. Zion Williams sounded more like a future Longhorn player than D.J. Sanders.
4. Kids really, really seem to like Kenny Baker. We'll see if it pays off with the super blue chips, but he was probably mentioned more than any other assistant coach by recruits.
No. 4 - Come on, T'Vondre ...
No one needs to banish T'Vondre Sweat to the Land of Misfit Toys or suggest that he's allegedly committed a crime that he can't come back from, but there's bad timing and then there's getting a DWI charge a couple of weeks before teams are trying to decide whether to spend millions in selecting you in the NFL Draft.
Oof.
First things first ... call an Uber. There's just no reason in 2024 for a guy with so much to lose to ever get behind the wheel after he's had a few drinks. Thankfully, nobody got hurt. We tend to give folks a mulligan on matters like this, but it can't ever happen again or it can become the thing you're known most for. Or someone could actually get hurt next time. I just got finished watching the movie "Shot caller" this week and the worst-case consequences on something like this are pretty terrifying. So, let's just make sure this is a one-off, T'Vondre. Buy stock in Uber and have your good times without worry.
As for the upcoming Draft, Sweat seemed like a guy destined to go in round two based on most of the mocks I've looked at in recent weeks. My guy John Harris had Sweat going No. 34 to the Cardinals in his most recent mock draft. I have no idea how much something like this will hurt Sweat, but it most certainly could.
Let's cross our fingers for the lovable big guy that it doesn't hurt him too much.
No. 5 - Updated Scholarship Board ...
With both a commitment (Rickey Stewart Jr.) and de-commit (Anthony Williams), here's a look at the scholarship board coming out of the weekend.
No. 6 - Yuck ...
There's nothing positive to say about what happened at the Disch this weekend. BYU was a team that Texas needed to sweep and instead the sub-.500 Cougars came in and punked the Longhorns in their park.
Woof.
I suppose the one thing that remains semi-positive is that the other teams in the Big 12 aren't going to run away from the Longhorns in the Win/Loss column. Not unless Texas keeps losing series to bad teams, which is definitely on the table.
No. 7 – The opposite of yuck ...
After losing two of three last week against Oklahoma State, Mike White's team decided it was time to go big or go home.
With the swing of Kate Stewart's 2-run blast on Sunday and lock-down pitching in all but the third inning, the No. 4 Longhorns took two out of three from big, bad, No. 1-ranked Oklahoma.
I have to admit that I've wondered a little about this team after it lost two of three last weekend and dropped another last month against No. 2 LSU. Maybe the Longhorns were really good, but not great. There's no shame in being a top-5 team that just can't quite beat a truly elite team twice in three days. Most teams wish they were that good.
Yet, the Longhorns proved that the sky isn't limited for them when they get into super regional and CWS action next month.
Again, I see you ladies. This bat drop deserves another section.
No. 8 – BUY or SELL …
(Sell) Banks is the only player on the 2024 OL that would start for the 2005 team. It's not really close in a few spots. (Blalock >>> Williams, Sendlein >>> Majors and Studdard >>> Conner)
(Buy/Buy) Yeah, I'll have some of that.
(Sell) I can't pretend like I didn't have the Longhorns winning the Big 12 in 2019 after the win over UGA in the Sugar Bowl.
(Sell/Buy/Buy/Buy/Buy) First time I've said such a thing.
(Buy) I think so. The thing about CDC is that he doesn't like it when a sport embarrasses him. It happened in men's basketball a little this year. He wants to be the life of the party every time he goes out and embarrassing stuff makes that hard to do. I'm guessing he didn't enjoy how the baseball program made him feel in front of people this weekend.
(Buy) He was always going to be in this class in my mind once he de-committed from SMU.
(Buy) What the hell ... yes.
(Buy) Yeah, I'll have some of that.
(Buy) Yeah, I'll have some of that, too.
(Buy) Maybe today will mean nothing but getting arrested in the middle of the day will cause some teams to think twice, especially when there are questions about his seriousness to stay in shape.
No. 9 – Scattershooting all over the place …
... South Carolina just had too many big players ... too many good players ... for Iowa to handle, even with Caitlin Clark. Sometimes David doesn't beat Goliath.
... The Texans are going to let Stefon Digs be a free agent after this season? If they were willing to give up a second-round pick, I wonder if there was a better option to target than a 30-year-old receiver who seemed to be declining down the stretch last season?
... Headlines on ESPN.com that I never thought I would read: "Could the Patriots have a Texans-like turnaround?"
... For those that are watching the UFL, what am I missing?
... I'm way less interested in the Purdue/UConn national championship than I am about the women's game from Sunday.
... Are we ready for the NBA Playoffs? It looks like we could have some nasty little first-round match-ups.
... I'm not sure Chauncey Billups is a Hall of Famer. The guy was All-NBA second team twice and All-NBA third team twice. That's the Hall of Very Good IMO. Yet, if you're going to put Michael Cooper in, I guess you have to put Billups in.
... Is Steve Strasburg a Hall of Famer? Feels like he's the Terrell Davis of the MLB in the last 20 years.
... Austin FC still leaves a lot to be desired in a lot of personnel places, but there's no doubt that Sebastian Driussi is some kind of player and the best thing the verde have going for it. Wowzers.
... I'm going to be cranky over Liverpool's draw against Manchester United for at least 48 hours.
... Gotta feeling that Arsenal is going to blow Bayern Munich out of the water. Munich feel like a dead team walking.
No. 10 - Top 10: Beyonce ...
I know what you're thinking...
Well, she's as Texan as they come. She's currently has the No. 1 song and album in country music. Plus ... it's Beyonce.
No, we're not including songs from Destiny's Child. She's got enough hits without counting them. Also, shout out to her collaboration with Miley Cyrus on Cowboy Carter. I don't have the guts to put it in the Top 10, but I freaking dig this song. It's an absolute banger that I like a little more each time I hear it.
Also, Cowboy Carter might be a masterpiece. I hadn't really given it a spin until this week, but that album is a 27-track shotgun punch that has stuff in it that flat out blew my mind. Multiple songs almost made my Top 10. Multiple others could have.
Ok, let's do this ...
Honorable Mention: Daughter, Dangerously in Love, Sorry, Deja Vu, Flawless, Black Parade, Get me Bodied, Run The World, Jolene, Check On It, Halo, Sweet Dreams, Party, Hello, Hold Up, 03' Bonnie and Clyde, If I Were a Boy, The Closer I Get To You and No Angel
10. Ya-Ya
I can't describe it better than Billboard magazine did: "What do you get if you take a sample of Nancy Sinatra’s “These Boots Are Made for Walkin’,” mix it with an interpolation of the Beach Boys’ “Good Vibrations” and douse the whole concoction in the essence of Tina Turner? Well, you get “Ya Ya,” of course, the best song on Cowboy Carter."
9. Irreplaceable
Fact: No song was the most popular ringtone from any woman in the decade of the 2000s.
8. Single Ladies (Put a Ring On It)
It feels very much like a great Destiny's Child song and I'm more than ok with that,
7. Love Drought
Another personal favorite. It might have the legacy of the previous two on the list, but it's the song I'd rather listen to.
6. Love on Top
It's the most Whitney House-vibing song (with some New Edition mixed in) I think she's ever made. It's my jam. It's probably not a top 5 song, but it had to be in my top 10.
5. Formation
It feels like this is the song that unleashed the Beyonce that we have in 2024. She's always been a baddie in all the best ways, but this Beyonce doesn't take shit from anyone, not even her husband.
4. Partition
Bey called this the song her mom probably can't listen to her best sex jam. It's like she decided to collaborate with Trent Reznor and make the R&B version of "Closer"
3. Crazy in Love
This is the song that launched her into true solo superstardom. It just doesn't bang for me quite like the top two.
2. Me, Myself and I
The sexiest song Bey has ever made as a solo artist. The beat just makes you move in a certain kind of way and she pulls off a masterful seduction act from there. I wish she had a few more of these in her catalog.
1. Drunk in Love
I'll never forget when I first heard this song because I was in the middle of making a Top 10 songs of 2023 list when this song came out in the middle of December and seemed to render everything else a moot point. I had never heard a song like this. Still haven't heard another. She's just let it all hang out and it was so baller.
