Ketch's 10 Thoughts From The Weekend (Drink the Kool-Aid I'm pouring...)

[Random9]

Man, I'm sorry, but I couldn't disagree more with your thought analysis on Blue skipping his "senior" year of HS. I have zero clue what's been said about him on message boards...as if that holds any water to begin with. However, a 17 yr old skipping out for his "future NFL" career is laughable at best. Sure, his choice and that's the country/society we live in...but come on, stop making this sound like it's no big deal. You brought up Golf of all sports too???????? Let me ask you this, what if it's a Sophomore next...or a freshman saying the same thing? Hope you have the same thoughts. Sure, we all hope it works out best for the kid, but to think this is a reasonable decision is bizarre to me.

I understand your feelings, but I agree that this is a personal and business decision that the kid absolutely has the right to make. He has already earned his future next step, and the University is ok with it, so why take unnecessary chances with your potential future? If he gets hurt in high school, what happens to his potential NIL money? Can't blame him or any other kid who has the ability to make this decision. Free enterprise at it's best/worst made this bed. It will be interesting how the high school treats the colleges who might encourage this decision on other recruits. This could be an emerging recruiting thicket.

 

[Ketchum]

Aaron Green disagrees
Literally one spot higher

anyone else?

6.0 typically goes deeper than 61.

Also, I haven't displayed my own running back numbers. They are better than Rivals. And where I have him ranked is in a much higher performing tier with a sample size that is is a half-decade deeper in sample size.

 

[Ketchum]

And obviously @Ketchum has chosen to ignore that.

What percentage would begin to make it smart decision in your mind?

I'd contend I'd be much more likely to sit out if my actual number was 17-percent and I thought the number might climb by even 5-10-percent based on cautious handling.

 

[Ketchum]

All of this is beside the point, in my opinion.

If skipping senior football costs Blue his opportunity at Texas, it'll be a bad decision. If Blue doesn't use the time to train, prepare, and keep his grades up, it'll be a bad decision. So yeah, this might be a mistake on his part.

But if Blue works hard and comes to Texas ready to play, then regardless of how things turn out beyond that point, the decision hasn't really cost him much.

Whether he makes the NFL or not is going to depend on what he does in college, not on what he didn't do in high school. How he does beyond football is going to depend on how he handles his UT course load and whether he gets his T ring. It won't depend on whether he played his senior year at Klein.

I also think the part where he says he plans to focus on academics is under-talked about here.

There are some kids that definitely need a year to prepare for Texas academics more than they need a year to prepare for Texas football.

 

[RLong68]

anyone else?

6.0 typically goes deeper than 61.

Also, I haven't displayed my own running back numbers. They are better than Rivals. And where I have him ranked is in a much higher performing tier with a sample size that is is a half-decade deeper in sample size.

No idea why you wouldn't just use your rankings then instead of massaging "facts" of another ranking to fit a narrative. Based on the numbers you chose to use, Blue fits just as much in the group that has significantly lesser success of making the NFL than the group that does.

 

[RLong68]

I also think the part where he says he plans to focus on academics is under-talked about here.

There are some kids that definitely need a year to prepare for Texas academics more than they need a year to prepare for Texas football.

It's admirable you believe that.

 

[Ketchum]

T

His decision say it all. How could you possibly call that leadership. It’s just the opposite.

I could argue it takes more maturity and leadership to do the thing you think is right, even if unpopular.

It couldn't have been easy to make this decision. On paper, you can say the level of focus towards his ambition as a college student/athlete is exactly what you want.

We definitely say that about kids that enroll early, no?

 

[Ketchum]

No idea why you wouldn't just use your rankings then instead of massaging "facts" of another ranking to fit a narrative. Based on the numbers you chose to use, Blue fits just as much in the group that has significantly lesser success of making the NFL than the group that does.

I didn't have them handier. I was able to quickly link.

 

[Ketchum]

This could be an emerging recruiting thicket.

I think it's an easy thing to defend against in some ways, but you're right... a potential thicket.

 

[RLong68]

What percentage would begin to make it smart decision in your mind?

I'd contend I'd be much more likely to sit out if my actual number was 17-percent and I thought the number might climb by even 5-10-percent based on cautious handling.

How many years can a player give up to justify it to you. May Rueben Owens can go ahead and shut it down? Who are the hot '24 RB prospects wasting their time if they have an offer already?

 

[Ketchum]

How many years can a player give up to justify it to you. May Rueben Owens can go ahead and shut it down? Who are the hot '24 RB prospects wasting their time if they have an offer already?

I'd shut it down (or give it strong consideration, along with other optioms) if I were Owens vs. playing the caliber of football he's playing now. His future is secure. More bad can happen than good.

 

[Ketchum]

On page 2 of the link....

FYI, here's a historical look at my own personal 5 and high 4 star rankings since 1997

5 stars

1997 Dominique Rhodes (Texas Tech)
1998 Ben Gay (Baylor)
2001 Cedric Benson (Texas)
2004 Adrian Peterson (Oklahoma)
2005 Jamaal Charles (Texas)
2009 Christine Michael (Texas A&M)
2011 Malcolm Brown (Texas)
2011 Brandon Williams (Oklahoma)
2012 Johnathan Gray (Texas)

* Five of the nine players (55.5%) were drafted by NFL teams: Cedric Benson (1st round), Adrian Peterson (1st round), Jamaal Charles (3rd round), Christine Michael (2nd round), and Brandon Williams (third round). None of the drafted players I ranked as five stars went lower than the third round when drafted.

* Three others (33.3%) went undrafted but played in the NFL: Ben Gay, Dominique Rhodes and Malcolm Brown, which means that nearly 90-percent of the players I've ever rated as five-stars at the position played in the NFL.

* Only one back was ranked as a five star and didn't play in the NFL... Johnathan Gray.

High 4 stars

1997 Hodges Mitchell (Texas)
1999 Ivan Williams (Texas)
2000 Tyson Thompson (TCU)
2003 Erik Hardeman (Texas)
2006 Vondrell McGee (Texas)
2006 Michael Goodson (Texas A&M)
2008 Cyrus Gray (Texas A&M)
2010 Lache Seastrunk (Oregon)
2012 Trey Williams (Texas A&M)
2015 Soso Jamabo (UCLA)
2015 Ronald Jones (USC)
2017 J.K. Dobbins (Ohio State

* Five of the 11 players (46%) were drafted by NFL teams:
Michael Goodson (4th round), Cyrus Gray (6th round), Lache Seastrunk (6th round), Ronald Jones (2nd round) and J.K. Dobbins (2nd round)

* One other (9.0%) went undrafted but played in the NFL: Tyson Thompson

* Of the other five backs that didn't have NFL careers...

* Mitchell was a two-year starter and a 1,000-yard back at Texas
* Williams was a sometimes starter, but mostly rotational back at Texas
* Hardeman was a major flame out.
* McGee was a bust
* Jamabo was a bust

My overall track record ranks a little better than Rivals.

 

[RLong68]

I'd shut it down (or give it strong consideration, along with other optioms) if I were Owens vs. playing the caliber of football he's playing now. His future is secure. More bad can happen than good.

I mean, what "other options" are there to actually playing? Well, at least you answered. You think Owens should shut it down. Onto rising sophomores!

 

[RLong68]

My overall track record ranks a little better than Rivals.

And you have Blue as a 6.0 4-star?

 

[Ketchum]

I mean, what "other options" are there to actually playing? Well, at least you answered. You think Owens should shut it down. Onto rising sophomores!

I'd transfer to a program with better coaching, facility and training options, if at all possible.

Same thing I've suggested for Maalik.

 

[Ketchum]

And you have Blue as a 6.0 4-star?

I have him rated as a 5-star in my last ratings in February.

 

[RLong68]

I'd transfer to a program with better coaching, facility and training options, if at all possible.

Same thing I've suggested for Maalik.

Well of course. But I imagine this wouldn’t even be remotely as controversial as him tweeting he’s opting altogether. Which is at the heart of why it’s being discussed

 

[Ketchum]

Well of course. But I imagine this wouldn’t even be remotely as controversial as him tweeting he’s opting altogether. Which is at the heart of why it’s being discussed

Correct.

We clutch our pearls over quitting on those poor bastards he leaves behind on his high school team based on new undefined tiers of selfishness.

 

[Buddah318]

Correct.

We clutch our pearls over quitting on those poor bastards he leaves behind on his high school team based on new undefined tiers of selfishness.

It’s his future. if those closest to him are okay with it, Sarks okay with it then who am I to say that’s selfish? Even if it was, I’d argue being selfish with ones only shot to make it big is something people in any other profession would do right? A lot of posters never made it past high school so it’s romanticized. people who could never see themselves doing this didng have the path very few athletes in the country have each year before them.

People always tell others “do what’s best for you and your family” until it’s not in their ideals.

same reason posters with supposed free market beliefs and capitalist ideals are hypocrites in the players getting paid threads.

 

[Ketchum]

It’s his future. if those closest to him are okay with it, Sarks okay with it then who am I to say that’s selfish? Even if it was, I’d argue being selfish with ones only shot to make it big is something people in any other profession would do right? A lot of posters never made it past high school so it’s romanticized. people who could never see themselves doing this didng have the path very few athletes in the country have each year before them.

People always tell others “do what’s best for you and your family” until it’s not in their ideals.

same reason posters with supposed free market beliefs and capitalist ideals are hypocrites in the players getting paid threads.

I'd like this post a couple of times if I could.

 

[Buddah318]

I'd like this post a couple of times if I could.

I’ll take one like 😉

 

[Hookem2009]

Man, I'm sorry, but I couldn't disagree more with your thought analysis on Blue skipping his "senior" year of HS. I have zero clue what's been said about him on message boards...as if that holds any water to begin with. However, a 17 yr old skipping out for his "future NFL" career is laughable at best. Sure, his choice and that's the country/society we live in...but come on, stop making this sound like it's no big deal. You brought up Golf of all sports too???????? Let me ask you this, what if it's a Sophomore next...or a freshman saying the same thing? Hope you have the same thoughts. Sure, we all hope it works out best for the kid, but to think this is a reasonable decision is bizarre to me.

If they start offering sophomores full rides to come to college and play football without seeing there other two years of High school film then by all means they should sit out. It increases the probability of longevity in the game. No one can dispute that even tho ya'll consistently try with frivolties. Anybody with any eyesight and understanding of the game can see Blue has the raw talent and innate abilities you cant teach. The worst thing that could happen by him sitting out his senior year is he will prolley redshirt as a freshman at Texas. Which in fact isnt a negative at all, but a positive.

 

[Hookem2009]

I'd like this post a couple of times if I could.

I'd like this post a couple of times if I could.

I liked it for you

 

[Ketchum]

I liked it for you

that's funny.

 

[Hookem2009]

All of this is beside the point, in my opinion.

If skipping senior football costs Blue his opportunity at Texas, it'll be a bad decision. If Blue doesn't use the time to train, prepare, and keep his grades up, it'll be a bad decision. So yeah, this might be a mistake on his part.

But if Blue works hard and comes to Texas ready to play, then regardless of how things turn out beyond that point, the decision hasn't really cost him much.

Whether he makes the NFL or not is going to depend on what he does in college, not on what he didn't do in high school. How he does beyond football is going to depend on how he handles his UT course load and whether he gets his T ring. It won't depend on whether he played his senior year at Klein.

Is there a forward button to make erbody read this quote like 7-8 times so they can stop making fallacious arguments about how this is a bad decision for a guy who already has his college football scholarship offer.

 

[texasfight11]

I almost picked, "This is what happens when you **** a stranger in the ass."

“Obviously you’re not a golfer” is in my top ten

 

[Bevonator]

Teams don't matter more than a person's own best self-interest.

VY had to look out for himself when he left the team in 2006.

You can say that it was a higher level and that he left for tens of millions, but the bottom line remains the same in that you have to look out for yourself first at critical moments in life decision-making.

Blue has accomplished everything he can accomplish in high school. If we're keeping it 100, he's just running out the clock and hoping not to get injured. I'm just not sure he's at a position where the juice is worth the squeeze.

It's getting worse and if it starts happening in high school nothing will be worth watching anymore. I had no problem with what VY did though. That IS different. For one thing, he wasn't still at UT.

 

[Ketchum]

It's getting worse and if it starts happening in high school nothing will be worth watching anymore. I had no problem with what VY did though. That IS different. For one thing, he wasn't still at UT.

what do you mean?