As soon as the 2024 SEC schedules were announced this week, the 2023 season started to feel a little like an appetizer sampler plate at TGI Fridays.
We're going to eat the damn thing because it's there in front of us, but it is ultimately not what we want to eat.
Hell, we don't even want to be at TGI Fridays. We want to eat a fantastic steak at III Forks. Or Perry's. Or Fleming's. Or anywhere other than TGI Fridays.
No offense to TGI Fridays, which in this case is a metaphor for the Big 12.
Ultimately, there were three things that popped into my head when year one in the SEC was unveiled to the Orangebloods universe this week:
1. Holy hell, what a schedule! Arkansas and Texas A&M and Oklahoma and Florida AND Georgia. After all these years of terrible home schedules, having season tickets in 2024 will be worth the money.
2. A 9-3 record will get the Longhorns into the college football playoff in 2024, once the playoffs expands to 12 teams in UT's first year in the SEC.
3. If championship banners matter (and they do), the Longhorns better win the Big 12 in 2023 because the road to hanging something on the walls of DKR gets incredibly more difficult after this season.
As it relates to the 2024 season, Texas fans need to recalibrate their brains with regard to what translates to a successful season because there's no going undefeated against the schedule that is in front of the Longhorns next year, especially when you throw in the trip to Ann Arbor at the beginning of the season. From my perspective, winning nine games against that schedule will get the Longhorns into the playoff.
Unlike most years in the Big 12, losing a game isn't going to be a back-breaker for championship hopes. Neither will losing a second game or even a third game.
Suddenly, there's a hell of a lot of wiggle room. Texas won't have to beat Georgia at home. It won't have to beat Michigan. When you're playing a schedule that could see playing Florida at home as the sixth-toughest game on the schedule, you can expect the Longhorns to get a lot of benefit of the doubt if they can get to nine wins. Anything more than that is a slam dunk, but we can safely mark nine down as a possible magic number when you consider that Utah and Kansas State both finished inside the top 12 in the last season's final committee rankings, while Florida State, Oregon State and Oregon all finished in the top 15 with three losses.
The thing that is scary about the 2024 schedule is that the Longhorns could be the best version that the program has delivered over the last 10 years and could still finish 8-4 or 7-5. Hell, if we're being honest, it's probably more likely that the Longhorns finish south of 9-3 than anything else.
That reality is why winning big in the 2023 season is so important.
I'm really not sure what the world is going to look like if the Longhorns go 5-7, 8-5, 9-3 and 8-4 (not including bowl games in 2023 and 2024) through the first four years of Steve Sarkisian's tenure in Austin, but not being able to surpass Tom Herman's best season isn't what Sarkisian was hired to do.
Maybe he's safe in that situation or maybe things begin to feel shaky,
The best way to cut off any negativity is to win the Big 12 this season, which would almost certainly give the Longhorns added momentum going into the 2024 season. Hell, winning the Big 12 this year would likely mean that Sarkisian would be in line for an all-important extension and it takes some of the pressure off of whatever happens in year one of the SEC, which promises to be taxing.
It's a reminder that while all of us want to eat steak as soon as possible, the best thing for the Texas program is to eat all of the boneless wings, cheese sticks, wings and loaded potato skins that come on that TGI Friday's appetizer platter this year.
No. 2 - A few quick thoughts on this week's pile of official visitors ...
a. When this staff gets kids on campus for visits, they generally blow it out of the park. It seems like they did it again this weekend. Every time @Suchomel had an update today in our Slack channel, it was very, very positive.
b. You get the sense that a flood of commitments are indeed coming, but it is fair to wonder if many of them will be of the super blue chip variety. Most of the instant analysis articles I've written in the last 12 hours have been of guys rated as low four stars and high three stars.
c. Can the Longhorns land 5-star wide receiver Ryan Wingo? You get the sense that the Longhorns are in the mix, but are they at the front of the pack? This is one to watch very closely.
d. Next weekend feels like the true monster weekend of the year. Buckle up.
No. 3 - About new Texas commit Santana Wilson ...
Since I was finishing up a very short and mostly work-filled, six-day (mini) vacation on Saturday, I didn't get a chance to share my thoughts on what his commitment means in the form of an Instant Analysis article.
So, let's talk about the young man.
* It's pretty easy to see why the Texas staff coveted Wilson. At 6-0/6-1, 180 pounds, Wilson passes the eyeball test when looking for the kind of athlete this program will want at the cornerback position going into the SEC. Physically, he's very similar to Kobe Black, who is regarded as a borderline 5-star prospect.
* He's very athletic. His most exciting stuff on his HUDL highlights might be his work as a running back, simply because it truly showcases his explosiveness as a prospect.
* Once you throw in his bloodlines, I think we're talking about a possible super blue-chip-level prospect. Personally, I'd rank him as a top 10-level prospect if he happened to be in the Lone Star State.
* His ranking across most services is probably hampered by the fact that he hasn't been on the camp circuit like so many of his peers. My guess is that his rankings continue to climb as people get to see more of him.
No. 4 - The annexation of Arizona ...
On the heels of turning Arizona high school phenom Bijan Robinson into the best running back in the country in 2022 and a top-10 pick in the NFL Draft in 2023, it feels like the state of Arizona is just begging the Longhorns to come into the state for its best prospects.
It appears that is exactly what the Longhorns are doing.
First, the Longhorns landed Wilson this weekend. Next up on the menu for Texas could be the state's best running back in Christian Clark. Should the Longhorns add three-star Deshawn Warner to the mix, we could be talking about Texas landing three of Arizona's top dozen or so prospects.
After all of the fuss that was made with Arizona State's addition of Ra'Shaad Samples and Bryan Carrington to its coaching staff, it'll be funny if the Longhorns end up doing more damage in the state of Arizona than Arizona State is able to do in the state of Texas.
For the record, only two of the nine kids ranked inside the state of Arizona's top 20 prospects that have given commitments at this point have given them to schools inside the state of Arizona. Translation: the state's best talent is there for the taking and the Texas staff seems to have figured it out.
No. 5 - Micah Hudson Futurecast?
Well, I went ahead and did it.
After setting a FutureCast for Texas to land Micah Hudson back in February, I've officially moved my pick over to Texas Tech for multiple reasons.
1. There's just too much buzz for the Red Raiders to ignore.
2. Maybe it'll serve as a reverse jinx for the Red Raiders and I'll emerge as a hero.
Honestly, there's a long way to go until signing day and anything is still possible, but the Tech momentum is tough to overlook. Hell, there was even buzz on Sunday that he might announce his commitment to Tech in the next 24 hours.
Given this staff's proven record of flipping guys, Hudson will immediately become the No.1 candidate to be this year's Anthony Hill should he commit to Tech, but I can't ignore the winds coming out of West Texas.
The good news for Texas is that bad ass wide receivers grow on trees in the state of Texas. Just look at this year's class and especially the 2025 class. It's hard to keep track of all the potential All-Americans. As long as Sarkisian is at Texas, the Longhorns will attract big-time wide receivers, either in recruiting or through the portal (see AD Mitchell).
Still, there's no escaping the possible bad news. Hudson is one of the top two prospects in the state and losing him to a school like Tech, which has never landed a high school prospect of Hudson's pedigree, is tough to swallow. It should never happen, especially with Texas on the cusp of playing in the SEC and Tech being left behind to play in a watered-down version of a league that is already watered down.
No. 6 - A look at the state's Top 10 prospects by rankings service ...
LSR (will be updated this week)
1. WR Micah Hudson (FutureCasted to Texas Tech)
2. DE Colin Simmons (FutureCasted to LSU)
3. CB Kobe Black (FutureCasted to Texas)
4. RB Caden Durham (FutureCasted to Oklahoma)
5. WR Bryant Wesco (Committed to Clemson)
6. QB D.J. Lagway (Committed to Florida)
7. LB Justin Williams (UGA/Oregon lead)
8. DE Dealyn Evans (Committed to Texas A&M)
9. Ath Terry Bussey (FutureCasted to Texas A&M)
10. S Xavier Filsaime (Committed to Florida)
What stands out about my personal top 10 is that the top eight prospects are all committed to or projected to commit to different schools. All eight.
Rivals
1. DE Colin Simmons (FutureCasted to LSU)
2. WR Micah Hudson (FutureCasted to Texas Tech)
3. LB Justin Williams (UGA/Oregon lead)
4. WR Bryant Wesco (Committed to Clemson)
5. CB Kobe Black (FutureCasted to Texas)
6. S Xavier Filsaime (Committed to Florida)
7. Ath Terry Bussey (FutureCasted to Texas A&M)
8. QB D.J. Lagway (Committed to Florida)
9. RB Taylor Tatum (USC/Michigan lead)
10. WR Dre'lon Miller (USC/A&M/LSU lead)
247
1. WR Bryant Wesco (Committed to Clemson)
2. Ath Terry Bussey (FutureCasted to Texas A&M)
3. LB Justin Williams (UGA/Oregon lead)
4. WR Micah Hudson (FutureCasted to Texas Tech)
5. CB Kobe Black (FutureCasted to Texas)
6. DE Colin Simmons (FutureCasted to LSU)
7. S Xavier Filsaime (Committed to Florida)
8. DE Dealyn Evans (Committed to Texas A&M)
9. RB Taylor Tatum (USC/Michigan lead)
10. QB D.J. Lagway (Committed to Florida)
On3
1. DE Colin Simmons (FutureCasted to LSU)
2. WR Micah Hudson (FutureCasted to Texas Tech)
3. Ath Terry Bussey (FutureCasted to Texas A&M)
4. QB D.J. lagway (Committed to Florida)
5. OL Weston Davis (A&M/LSU lead)
6. LB Justin Williams (UGA/Oregon lead)
7. WR Bryant Wesco (Committed to Clemson)
8. OL Casey Poe (Leaning OOS)
9. DE Joseph Jonah-Ajonye (FutureCasted to Georgia)
10. RB Taylor Tatum (USC/Michigan lead)
Outside of a couple of interesting selections by ON3, there's a pretty strong consensus of the top difference makers in the state of Texas in this class and almost all of them seem destined to scatter in different directions. I'm not sure I've ever seen a year like this once since ... 1998? That's the first class that Mack Brown signed when he arrived on the scene (2 months on the job) and the top 10 that year looked like this:
1. WR Montrell Flowers (Signed with Texas)
2. RB Ben Gay (Signed with Baylor)
3. QB Chip Ambres (Signed with Texas A&M)
4. OL Antwau Kirk-Hughes (Signed with Texas)
5. DE Kevin Emanuel (Signed with FSU)
6. LB Mike Clay (Signed with Missouri)
7. LB Everick Rawks (Signed with Texas)
8. RB Leo Mills (Signed with Arizona)
9. LB Marcus Mosley (Signed with SMU)
10. DE Sean Phillips (Signed with UCLA)
Obviously, that's not a perfect like for like because Texas still signed three prospects from what turned out to be an abysmal top 10, but that's about as close as I can get. The current top 10 might eventually break in a way that sees a single school or two schools sign as many as three or four players, but this is shaping up to be one of the more unique classes in the modern history of recruiting.
No. 7 - Is Ivan Melendez the next...
If you haven't been paying attention, Hispanic Titanic is mashing in the minor leagues right now. He's hitting a home run every 13 at-bats in high Class-A ball.
Yet, he's also striking out a lot (41+% of his at-bats).
The Diamondbacks have really high hopes for him, but I'm trying to figure out whether he's the next Jim Thome (30.1% strikeout rate). Or are those old Andres Galarraga (24.7% strike out rate) comparisons actually kind of perfect?
Regardless, if he keeps mashing, he's going to make the big leagues.
No. 8 – BUY or SELL …
(Sell) It's kind of a trick question. The Longhorns received commitments behind the scenes from more than three players this weekend, but I'm not sure three will announce by tomorrow.
(Buy) Just prepare for the worst. As someone that already believes Big 12 officiating is the worst, I absolutely believe things can still go deeper into the pile of crap.
(Sell) Ewers has much better talent around him. That should matter quite a bit.
(Sell) I've got the Aggies with 8.
(Buy) Barring unique situations, you can find the same caliber of player in the state of Texas and in-state players are less likely to leave after a season or two if they haven't cracked the starting line-up. When you consider that most three stars/low four star prospects need 2-3 years of development before they hit the field as starting-level players, it can become a real problem (see the 2019 class).
(Sell) It's possible, but for now I'll take the field.
(Buy) I don't get the sense that he's even remotely feeling any heat going into year three. Only a disaster of a 2023 opens the door for a no.
(Sell) Sark is who he is. If his teams get better and more talented, it might not matter (see Mack Brown).
(Sell) I just don't see that many freshmen making that kind of depth chart run.
(Buy) You read my mind.
(Buy) Nothing has changed from my perspective. No player with Manning's pedigree in the last two decades has ever waited 2+ years before starting.
(Sell) I'd say it's less than 10%.
(Buy) I will say that Charlie Strong had an unusually high level of support, even until the bitter end. If not for the KU game, he likely gets another year in 2017.
(Buy) That's probably the right number.
(Buy) If you look up the word "boycott" in the dictionary, you'll find a photo of 1,000 old ags.
No. 9 - Scattershooting on anything and everything ...
... I kept waiting Wyndham Clark to blow it. I think I was rooting for it. Yet, the man made the puts when he needed to and is a deserving US Open champion. The question is whether this is just him inside of a hot month or the beginning of something that screams real substance.
... It was there for the taking for Scottie, but he just didn't have the juice on Sunday.
... We're about a month away from the start of NFL training camps. I can feel the fantasy jonesing from @Alex Dunlap from a mile away.
... Bob Huggins had one hell of a college coaching career, but he needs to go away and get his act together, which is exactly what he says he's intent on doing. The details of his DUI arrest are beyond ugly, as they range from him blowing a .210 to him thinking he was driving in a completely different state than where he was arrested to him not being able to account for the last few hours before he was arrested. Go get some help, Coach.
... Bradley Beal, Kevin Durant and Devin Booker all on the same team? That's a hell of a lot of 3-point snipers. And all they had to give up was a player they were ready to release (Chris Paul), Landry Shamet and some second round picks/pick swaps?
... Zion Williamson feels like a waste. He's getting ready to enter his fifth NBA season and he's only played more than 29 games in a season once. Still, if you could get him in a trade, you'd probably have to take the risk. There's so much talent inside that dude, even if he's better at getting played by porn stars than he is getting played by NBA all-stars at the moment.
... Enjoy retirement, Lou Williams. You had a hell of a run.
... Michael Jordan's run as an NBA owner is over. Thank God, for those in Charlotte.
... In the last 35 years, the Denver Nuggets now have as many NBA titles as Philadelphia (0), New York (0) and Boston (1) combined. Do better, East Coast.
... Is ex-St. Louis Cardinals post-season star David Freese the first guy to ever turn down being inducted into a team's Hall of Honor? The only thing similar I can think of is Dolly Parton turning down her nomination into the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame.
... Consider me absolutely floored by the lack of ambition showed by USA soccer in renaming Gregg Berhalter as its national coach. Give me a freaking break.
... This goal-keeper will have nightmares about this for the rest of his life, but this is one hell of a goal.
... This moved me and I thought I would share. It's just about one person doing some good and bringing people from all over together.
No. 10 - The List: Best TV/Movie Dads ...
As someone that didn't have a father growing up, I have to admit that the father characters in movies probably impacted me more than most kids in the 80s and 90s.
It felt like I was partly raised by television and film.
Therefore, a Top 10 list of the best dads in TV or movies seems like the right call this week.
Best Dads
10. Eric Taylor (Played by Kyle Chandler in Friday Night Lights)
9. Gil Buckman (Played by Steve Martin in Parenthood)
8. James Evans (Played by John Amos in Good Times)
7. Noah Levenstein (Played by Eugene Levy in American Pie)
6. Philip Banks (Played by James Avery in The Fresh Prince of Bel Air)
5. Andy Taylor (played by Andy Griffith in The Andy Griffith Show)
4. Ward Cleaver (played by Hugh Beaumont in Leave It to Beaver)
3. Furious Styles (Played by Laurence Fishburne in Boyz n the Hood)
2. Cliff Huxtable (Played by Bill Cosby in The Cosby Show)
1. Atticus Finch (played By Gregory Peck in To Kill a Mockingbird)
(Note: I realize that Cosby is an absolute horrible human being who should still be in jail, but his character in the 80s partially raised a generation of kids.)
Worst Dads
10. Joe Dirt's Dad (Played by Fred Ward in Joe Dirt)
9. Colonel Frank Fitts (Played by Chris Cooper in American Beauty)
8. Peter McCallister (Played by Jon Heard in Home Alone)
7. Walter White (Played by Bryan Cranston in Breaking Bad)
6. Logan Roy (Played by Brian Cox in Succession)
5. Daniel Plainview (Played by Daniel Day-Lewis in There Will Be Blood)
4. Darth Vader (Played by James Earl Jones and David Prowse in Star Wars)
3. Jack Torrance (Played by Jack Nicholson in The Shining)
2. Stannis Baratheon (Played by Stephen Dillane in Game of Thrones)
1. Thanos (Guardians of the Galaxy)
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