Ketch's 10 Thoughts From The Weekend (I'm still sitting at 9-3)
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You get a ♥️ for the CCR list.
I'm still at 9-3.
Through all of the off-season Kool-Aid pouring, the constant reminders of Quinn Ewers' alleged transformation and national press hype, I'm exactly where I stood about seven months ago.
9-3.
Don't get me wrong, the excitement around what is possible with the 2023 Longhorns is rich enough that it can be tasted. The talent the Longhorns possess at the wide receiver position is the stuff of must-see TV. Hell, I'm the one that just two weeks ago told you that the Longhorns have the fifth-most super blue-chip talent on their roster in the entire country.
Still, I'm sitting at 9-3, which will likely see the Longhorns playing in the Big 12 Championship Game, but still ... 9-3.
I can hear some of you right now asking, "Where are the three losses coming from? The Longhorns will be favored in every game, but one, so how have you come up with three?"
To that specific inquiry, I suppose I would break it down like this.
a. The Alabama game.
b. A road conference game.
c. A game that they absolutely should not lose.
You'll have to forgive me if I don't give this program the full benefit of the doubt when it goes on the road (3-6 record on the road under Steve Sarkisian) or in its ability to handle every piece of business that it should take care.
Believe me when I tell you that I dearly want to be wrong. Oh man, what I wouldn't give for a season of burnt orange bliss. Do you know how good business gets when the Longhorns win? Here's hoping every word of this gets re-litigated at my expense in late November.
For now, take comfort in the fact that a 9-3 regular season would mean the following:
a. Continued progress from 2021 and 2022.
b. The most wins in the regular season in Sarkisian's entire head coaching career (three times Sark has won eight games in the regular season).
c. A likely place in the Big 12 Championship game.
What happens in the Big 12 Championship game?
Ask me that when we're a week from the first game. I'm still not quite into giving that much unearned benefit of the doubt.
No. 2 - The Dirty Dozen Most Important Longhorns ...
This isn't a list of the best players on the Texas roster. Instead, it's a glance at the 12 most important Longhorns football players going into the season.
These are the players that will most determine what happens this season.
12. Senior linebacker David Gbenda
You're often only as strong as your weakest starter and with all due respect to Gbenda, he's gone from barely getting on the field in 2022 to being the guy who likely replaces DeMarvion Overshown. I still don't have any idea of the expectations any of us should have at the linebacker position outside of Jaylan Ford.
11. Freshman linebacker Anthony Hill
I just have a sneaky feeling that Hill might not be a starter this season, but he might still emerge as one of the biggest playmakers on this unit as a pass rusher/big-play specialist.
10. Junior kicker Bert Auburn
With all the coin-flip games the Longhorns could find themselves in this year after playing in roughly six of them a year ago, it stands to reason that at some point this team will need Auburn to make a kick or two that will determine whether victory or defeat has occurred.
9. Senior defensive back Jahdae Barron
Someone needs to be a playmaker in the secondary. It's time to be that guy, Mr. Barron.
8. Junior wide receiver A.D. Mitchell
A year ago, the outside receiver opposite Xavier Worthy was a black hole that often swallowed up the Texas passing game. This year it is led by a future NFL player that has two national championship game touchdowns on his resume.
7. Redshirt freshman quarterback Maalik Murphy
The last 10 years have told us that needing the backup quarterback to play a game or two is more likely than not going into the season.
6. Xavier Worthy
It's kind of crazy that arguably the best player on the team doesn't crack the top five, but it all comes down to positional scarcity. There are other very, very talented players in the wide receiver room that can step up if Worthy is missing. That's not the case elsewhere on the roster.
5. Ja'Tavion Sanders
The tight end position mostly exists as a position of importance because of Sanders. If he's out of the line-up, the position is mostly out of the line-up.
4. Barryn Sorrell
I literally don't know what this team will do at defensive end if Sorrell is forced to miss any game action.
3. Jaylan Ford
The only certified playmaker on the entire Texas defense. He's worth his weight in gold going into the season.
2. Kelvin Banks
He's not just a unicorn that can't be replaced, but he's a magical unicorn that can't be replaced.
1. Quinn Ewers
The guy that decides whether this team wins a title or not. It honestly is as simple as that.
No. 3 - Until I'm told otherwise ...
Everyone should probably just chill about the recruitment of 2024 super blue chips Colin Simmons, Kobe Black and Brandon Baker.
I don't get the sense that anyone is overly concerned with anything that happened this weekend with regard to Simmons. If he's likely to commit on August 1 to anyone, it'll almost certainly be the Longhorns,
That being said, these recruitments are going to be hard core, hand-to-hand combats all the way through December, whether they commit in August or not.
Nothing has changed in that regard. If that's too much to stomach, maybe just stick to non-recruiting discussions for the next few months. None of this is for the timid.
No. 4 - Classroom time ... defensive tackles ...
Everyone wants to know why Texas doesn't have any 5-star level defensive tackles on its roster and one of the reasons why is that the state of Texas isn't producing many.
Since the 2017 recruiting class, the state of Texas has produced only one super blue chip defensive tackle prospect (2023's David Hicks Jr.). That's one in the last seven recruiting cycles.
The truth of the matter is that when Halley's Comet does come around and the state produces an elite interior defensive lineman, they usually become first-round picks. They just don't happen often.
Here's the historical breakdown.
Let's look at the five-stars.
2002 - Rod Wright (Texas)
2004 - Frank Okam (Texas)
2005 - Demarcus Granger (Oklahoma)
2012 - Mario Edwards (Florida State)
2012 - Malcom Brown (Texas)
2013 - A'Shawn Robinson (Alabama)
2016 - Ed Oliver (Houston)
2017 - Marvin Wilson (Florida State)
Breakdown
* 75% were drafted by NFL teams and 87.5% played in the NFL
* The only player that didn't play in the NFL (Granger) was on his way to having that type of career before injuries and off-field issues seemed to cause it to stall out.
* Three of the last five five-star defensive tackles since 2005 have been selected in the first round of the NFL Draft and another (Edwards) was selected in the second round.
Now let's look at the high four stars:
2005 - Roy Miller (Texas)
2007 - Andre Jones (Texas)
2008 - Jarvis Humphrey (Texas)
2009 - Jamarkus McFarland (Oklahoma)
2009 - Calvin Howell (Texas)
2015 - Daylon Mack (Texas A&M)
Breakdown
* 33.0% were drafted by NFL teams and played in the NFL.
Mid Four Stars
2008 - Chancey Aghayere (LSU)
2010 - Ashton Dorsey (Texas)
2010 - Taylor Bible (Texas)
2013 - Justin Manning (Texas A&M)
2013 - Isaiah Golden (Texas A&M)
2013 - Kerrick Huggins (Oklahoma)
2014 - Deshawn Washington (Texas A&M)
2015 - Darrian Daniels (Oklahoma State)
2018 - Keondre Coburn (Texas)
2018 - Calvin Avery (Illinois)
Breakdown
* 10.0% were drafted by NFL teams and played in the NFL.
* Active college players: 2020's Vernon Broughton (Texas) and 2022's Jaray Bledsoe (Texas)
Low Four Stars
2004 - Walter Thomas (Oklahoma State)
2005 - Vince Oghobaase (Duke)
2005 - Vincent Williams (Texas A&M)
2006 - Brandon Antwine (Florida)
2008 - Rod Davis (Texas A&M)
2008 - Kheeston Randall (Texas)
2010 - Eric Humphrey (Oklahoma)
2011 - Marquis Anderson (Oklahoma)
2011 - Jordan Wade - (Oklahoma)
2011 - Desmond Jackson (Texas)
2011 - Quincy Russell (Texas)
2012 - Paul Boyette (Texas)
2013 - Andrew Billings (Baylor)
2013 - Hardreck Walker (Texas A&M)
2014 - Zaycoven Henderson (Texas A&M)
2016 - Chris Daniels (Texas)
2016 - Kendall Jones (Alabama)
Breakdown
* 11.8% were drafted by NFL teams and played in the NFL.
* Active college players: 2019's Joshua Ellison (Texas A&M/Memphis), 2021's Marcus Burris (Texas A&M), Jadon Scarlett (Texas A&M) and 2023's Markis Deal (TCU)
No. 5 - Breaking the Bank ...
The bidding is over and it's official ... the 1/1 Autographed Black Prism card of Arch Manning is the most expensive Texas Longhorns football card of all-time ...
By a country mile.
The final price: $102,500 (not including taxes).
It's the most ever for a Panini auction card.
No. 6 - Speaking of NIL Deals ...
I know life is good if you're a starter on the Texas football team, but I didn't know it was quite this good.
No. 7 - Story-time with Uncle Ketch ....
The news this week that former Texas great Sergio Kindle was returning to Woodrow Wilson HS as an assistant football coach/teacher took me down memory lane.
The story of how Kindle was discovered on the recruiting scene goes like this ...
In the spring of 2003, Bobby Burton and I were sitting in his home watching dozens of random high school games from the state of Texas when we came across a game involving Kindle. As we looked through our notes, we couldn't find a junior on Wilson's roster that matched Kindle's physical profile.
Kindle was without a doubt the best player/prospect that we had watched in two days of watching film and we were terrified that he had somehow graduated as a senior without anyone knowing who he was.
So, I immediately called Kindle's coach Bobby Estes to find out who the hell this kid was.
"That's my freshman," Estes told us with a laugh.
He wasn't a departed senior. Or a junior. This freak was 14 years old and playing like an 18-year-old destined for the NFL.
A five-star prospect was born that day. We didn't need to see anything else. That kind of game film doesn't lie.
No. 8 – BUY or SELL …
(Buy) First.
(Sell) Crème Brûlée French Toast
(Sell) I can do without the prime rib.
(Buy) Yes, it absolutely looks very possible.
(Buy) Like I said, until I hear otherwise, I've got Texas closing with 3 five-stars, which would be an indication of positive momentum.
(Sell) I don't know how confident I am about any of it if I'm being honest with you. Gun to my head ... I suppose I would buy on Ewers improving his deep ball connections.
(Buy) I think it's happening and he'll be involved with game planning.
(Sell) My contacts aren't quite as high on Wingo to Texas as the other two.
(Sell) Nah, I don't think he's worth a win in this new role.
(Buy) I'll have a heaping serving of all that.
(Sell) Playoffs?
(Buy) Yes, there's definitely a piece.
(Buy) Yes, there will be prospects from the 2025 class that end up committing in time that were on hand this weekend.
(Sell) It hasn't changed at all.
No. 9 - Scattershooting on anything and everything ...
... I still can't believe Jim Harbaugh let a four-year-old cater a recruiting event.
... The Texas Rangers are going for it ... I like it.
... I'm sitting 12th in my fantasy football Draft. No Bijan for me.
... It feels like I might have a Jonathan Taylor decision to make with that 12th pick.
... Bud Crawford doing the thing that Floyd Mayweather Jr. could never do ... finish the show with a complete dismantling of a world-class opponent. It was dominant. It was emphatic. It was historically memorable.
... Hey, at least if you're Errol Spence, you didn't get kicked in the face.
... Yes, I did get up at 4 a.m. on Sunday morning to watch Liverpool in a pre-season affair in Singapore.
... No, I will not be getting up at 2:00 a.m. on Tuesday for the next USA women's game in the world cup, but I'll probably set the DVR.
... Smack-talking Manchester United fans crack me up. Part of the cool thing about being a Premier League fan for the last decade is that I've never seen that club win the league or win in Europe. As a Cowboys fan in the NFL, I've had my fill of smack talk related to stuff that isn't recent history. I guess United fans aren't there yet.
... Barbie and Oppenheimer are still kicking ass.
... Who pays money to go to a concert, only to get thrown out for throwing a drink on stage at the performer you paid to see?
... Mess with the bull, you get the horns ...
No. 10 - The List: CCR ...
More than a decade has passed since I dropped my first Creedence Clearwater Revival List. In fact, so much time has passed that I can't even find an old copy of the list that I did back in 2012.
Therefore, it seemed like a perfect time to update things.
I'm sure there will be no disagreement.
Honorable Mention: Long As I Can See The Light, Green River, Down on the Corner, Cotton Fields, Up Around the Bend, Lodi and Run Through the Jungle
10. I Heard It Through The Grapevine
I love this song. I love this band. It has to be in my top 10.
9. Tombstone Shadow
It's just a bad ass jam. It's like a tornado of Southern Rock.
8. Suzie Q
I feel like this song played in my house every weekend when I was a kid in the early 80s.
7. I Put a Spell On You
A personal favorite of mine. It's one of the greatest songs of all time and CCR turns it into a flaming ball of fire.
6. Born on the Bayou
According to Wikipedia, Ultimate Classic Rock critic Cliff M. Junior rated "Born on the Bayou" as Creedence Clearwater Revival's 2nd greatest song, saying that "John Fogerty doesn’t just sing this ominous ode to the New Orleans area — he howls it."
5. Midnight Special
This song has been a favorite of mine since I heard it on Twilight Zone: The Movie.
4. Bad Moon Rising
Per Wikipedia, "it is one of five songs by the band that peaked at the No. 2 spot on the U.S. Billboard chart and didn't get to No. 1. It was blocked by 'Love Theme from Romeo and Juliet by Henry Mancini."
3. Have You Ever Seen The Rain?
Fogerty singing "I wanna know. Have you ever seen the rain" is one of my rock song lyrics of all-time.
2. Fortunate Son
Rolling Stone named this as the 99th best song of all-time in 2013.
1. Proud Mary
I know that Tina Turner slays this song, but this is THE CCR song for all-time.
9-3? Well, that’s just like your opinion, man.
Under 9.5 wins seems like easy money. I’m not betting it but what in Sark’s history says they do better?
Not often you have a player who just runs past everyone. That is a great talent. Remains to be seen if he and Ewers can utilize that talent.
That’s the voice I heard in my head when reading that, too.
The only player in the entire Big 12 to be unanimous first-team All-Big 12 this pre-season.
No player in school history has outperformed him over the first two years of his career.
Put some respect on that man's name.
Anyone wanting to argue vociferously against 9-3 has been under a rock the last decade plus. This ain’t 2008 summer when people were oddly down on a team coming off 10 wins.
I'm guessing it's due to the long offseason but last year Quinn seems like it was forever ago and he seems like a completely different QB going into this year. Not sure what that means but it just feels like he isn't even the same person, maybe not having the mullet is messing with me.
Texas will not be looking for a new coach if Sark wins 9 games this year. That is just silly.
I have more faith in this team to beat Alabama than I do for it to win all the games we absolutely should.
Seems like that's our modus operandi ever since I've been following the team. Not since 2005 have I been able to believe on a consistent basis that we have the strength of will and motivation to handle business against every single scrub team on the schedule.
Seems like that's our modus operandi ever since I've been following the team. Not since 2005 have I been able to believe on a consistent basis that we have the strength of will and motivation to handle business against every single scrub team on the schedule.
Nothing about this team in the last decade suggests that it wins a big non-conference game against a powerhouse on the road.
Where is the faith coming from?
9-3 with a big 12 championship win and a new years six bowl win to finish 11-3 put us in contention for a top 10 finish. I would sign up for that. The program would be rising in time for the move to the SEC. Then its all about making the 12 team playoff going forward at least 3 out of every 5 years I would say is the bench mark.
I don't have it, but it's coming from these spots:
1) Herman's team playing up against top tier teams
2) Should have beat them last year, we're better this year and they might be worse
3) Quinn Ewers hope machine
It's not so much faith as it is choosing one over the other. I don't have FAITH they'll win, I just have faith they have a better shot at one vs the other. Consider it taking the field.
But to answer your question about THIS team--not one from the last decade--I'm not sure Bama is quite as strong as they have been in the past. Even Saban seems to have concerns about their QB room, although that could just be Saban being Saban. I also think the team has circled this game on the schedule ever since we got screwed out of a win in Austin. I have faith Ewers and the OL will be better, even if marginally. Our defense is the biggest question mark, as usual. And at the very least, we'll have better officiating.
The quarterback situation at Bama would mean more if I thought Texas had a definite true advantage there.
Texas should have an advantage there, but should ain't the same as does.
I think everyone is overcooking the new look big 12. There is a lot of optimism but in the end even if they are the third best conference it will be the difference between a top 5 recruiting class and a top 25 class. This new look big 12 will not get the eyeballs and become known more as a basketball league. I am glad the new commish came after Texas agreed to leave the big 12 because I heard rumblings if he had arrived sooner maybe Texas and OU would still be part of the conference. The parents (Texas/OU) are leaving the kids to fend for themselves good luck they will need it.
9-3 would only suck if 9-3 doesn't become 11-3 with a big 12 championship and new years six bowl win. I think that has to be the expectation for this season. I would be happy and if the loss doesn't come from Texas Tech.
You're saying Milroe at 297 yards with five touchdowns and three interceptions last year is on par with 2177/15/6 from Ewers? Any given metric, including Rivals Ranking, future draft projection, and on-field performance has Quinn a much better prospect than Milroe. I don't see the difference between should and does, unless you're just saying that anything can happen. Statistically, he's an advantage.
I get it that on any given Saturday anything can happen, but you can bet that if Saban could switch QBs with Texas he'd do it in a New York minute.
I'm saying it's not out of the realm that Ewers plays poorly enough on the road against a great defense that it's easily a push.
To be fair, prices get bid up when the proceeds are going to charity. You see it all the time at car auctions
