Part of me dreads writing this column.
Part of me knows I'll probably write some version of this column again before the start of the season.
All of me knows that I've written this column before.
Yet, as we discuss what it means to be light at linebacker or the implications of an entirely new staff or how much of an impact the 2020 recruiting class can have in its first season or any other football-centric topic as it relates to the upcoming season, the truth of the matter is that is that all of them can and will become a lot less important depending on the growth and improvement of senior quarterback Sam Ehlinger.
Sometimes it's as simple as that. Just ask LSU.
A year ago, I picked Texas to win the Big 12 Championship before the season started because I projected that Ehlinger would take a big step between his sophomore and junior season, the kind of step that turns very good quarterbacks into greats ones. Given that Ehlinger had played so well in the biggest games of the 2018 season, as well as his MVP performance in the Sugar Bowl, it seemed like a safe bet.
Whether it was the rib injury or poor coaching or bad luck or all of it mixed into one big 2019 grab bag of imperfection, Ehlinger didn't really take THE step that Vince Young took in 2004 or Colt McCoy took in 2008 or Joe Burrow took a year ago. While there were was an early stretch of play that seemed to indicate the step was being taken, the final numbers turned into something else.
2018: 146.8 efficiency rating
2019: 151.8 efficiency rating
So, here I am all over again beating the same drum. If you can tell me right now with almost zero other context that Ehlinger plays an entire 14-game season in 2020 and is able to get his season efficiency rating to spike 20 points, I'm more than 85-percent confident that the Longhorns will win double-digit games and play for a Big 12 championship.
Period.
The ironic part of this request/declaration is that it's not asking for Herculean progress here. Ehlinger doesn't need to be Burrow in order for Texas top have a successful season. It just needs Ehlinger to stay healthy and play the best football of his life in his senior season under the direction of an offensive coordinator that represents an improvement from what Ehlinger has worked with through the first three years of his career.
If Mike Yurcich can get a 170 out of Ehlinger in 2020, I'm telling you right now, things will come together in a way that leads to a successful season. When you think of the losses to Baylor, Iowa State and TCU from a year ago, we're talking about games where Ehlinger finished with game ratings of 99.5, 137.1 and 99.1, respectively. Hell, the Longhorns lost to Oklahoma by a touchdown on a day when Ehlinger posted a 114.8 efficiency rating.
In all of those games, a little more productive consistency from Ehlinger probably leads to wins, regardless of all of the other sins this program carried with it in 2019.
Don't get me wrong, it's not fair at all to put the pressure of a season on Ehlinger's shoulders, but the reality is that there's probably not a major team sport that is as dependent on a single player/position as college football is with the quarterback position. There's a reason why the Final Four in the sport last year included quarterbacks that ranked as first-, second-, third- and seventh-place finishers in the Heisman voting.
A 170-season rating won't get Texas to the playoff, but it would certainly get Texas to the cusp of it.
It really is as simple as that.
No. 2 - What would it take to make Baylor a rival?
Believe me, as a former long-time Baylor football fan, I'm fully aware of the general aloofness that all Texas fans feel towards Baylor football and athletics in general
I've been around long enough to know all of the history.
The loss in 1984, which helped trigger the slide that ended in the 1984 Freedom Bowl didn't change things. Neither did the 50-7 loss in 1989. Hell, not even the highway robbery in Grant Teaff's final game caused Texas fans enough consternation to give Baylor the respect of labeling the Bears as an actual rival. For most Texas fans, Baylor was nothing more than the team Texas used to beat by 60 points, while selling out Baylor's own stadium during its glory days of the 2000s.
Considering Texas has beaten Baylor four of the last five times it has played the Bears in football, I suppose an argument can be made that the Bears still don't warrant being discussed in "rival" terms, but I can't help but sense that there's something different about the way Texas fans respond to the word "Baylor" than they did in previous decades.
Call me crazy, but I sense something bordering on hate. Is it spurned on by what happened with the Bears under Art Briles? Of course. Do the whys in something like this matter?
If you roll in the football angst that has existed between the two schools for the last decade and include some of the dominance in other sports that the Bears have enjoyed over the Longhorns in recent years, I'd argue that enough exists to call the Bears an actual rival. No, not on the level of an Oklahoma or Texas A&M, but certainly more than Texas Tech or Oklahoma State or anyone else in the Big 12.
So, that's what I'm suggesting ... Baylor ranks as rival No. 3 for Texas athletics moving forward. Too much has happened to argue otherwise at this point from my perspective.
Yet, if I'm wrong, I suppose the question I would ask is this ... what would have to happen for Baylor to actually register as an actual "rival" moving forward?
No. 3 - About the next three days ...
Here's a few things to know about the Texas recruiting class heading into the second National Signing Day on Wednesday.
Currently, the Longhorns rank 23rd in the Rivals.com team rankings, but Tom Herman and Co. have the highest stars per recruit in the class of any program ranked between 9th-22nd.
If the Longhorns can close with Alfred Collins, Princely Umanmielen and Kelvontay Dixon in the next few days, expect the Longhorns to shoot up the team ranking considerably, probably right at the cusp of a top-10 class ranking.
No. 4 - I promise, I promise, I promise ...
The final LSR of 2020 will come out on Tuesday. I've taken my time with it, but the final revision will be out before NSD.
No. 5 – BUY or SELL …
(Sell) I'm not sure it's even close. Bobby Bell, Willie Lanier, Len Dawson and Buck Buchanon are probably the top four.
(Sell) He might lead in touchdowns, though.
(Sell) I need to see more production from him before I give that kind of insane benefit of the doubt.
(Sell) I'm going to go three for four.
(Sell) It's not out of the realm of possibilities, I suppose.
(Buy) Texas fans are ready for change.
(Buy) Tom Herman has been very good in the grad transfer department, so yeah, I think there's a decent chance we some sort of addition.
(Buy) It's Sam's senior season and year number four under Herman.
(Sell) No way I'm ready to say anything like that.
No. 6 - Can I make one single hoops confession ...
As someone that didn't watch a minute of UT's win over Iowa State this weekend, I can certifiably admit to being a part of the "Shaka Smart has killed my taste for Texas basketball" Club.
Yet, if I'm being completely honest ... I have to pass along a thought that I had this weekend.
I want to see Greg Brown play basketball for the Longhorns to such an extent that I'd probably trade another season of Shaka if it meant that I got to see Brown's freak show for a single season in person.
There ... I said it. I don't like myself for saying it, but I've said it.
No. 7 - Seven Super Bowl thoughts ...
a. I wouldn't call Super Bowl 54 a great game, but it was an entertaining fourth quarter. It kind of reminded me of Super Bowl XXIII in that the end of the game kind of made up for so much of what happened early on.
b. Patrick Mahomes played the worst game of his career through three quarters and came alive in the fourth quarter to win the game. With his first ring under his belt, we might be in the early staged of an all-time career. I'm a fan.
c. At the end of the day, Jimmy Garoppolo can bus drive a team to the Super Bowl, but even his coach knows that he can't totally be trusted.
d. Good for Andy Reid. It's hard not to like him. On the other hand, I'm bummed for Kyle Shanahan. Here's hoping he gets another chance at one of these.
e. Good for Kansas City. Fifty years is a long time.
f. The Groundhog Day commercial was on a different level than the rest of the commercial pack.
g. I don't exactly know what to say about the halftime show, but Shakira and J-Lo were certainly energetic, which counts for something. I'll give it a B-
No. 8 - Eternal Randomness of the Spotty Sports Mind ...
... I can't say that I had a real problem with any of the five players that were named over the weekend in the 2020 NFL Hall of Fame class, but I don't really understand Steve Atwater getting in ahead of Darren Woodson, who has twice as many first-team All-Pro honors and was a revolutionary player at his position. Troy Polamalu was basically Darren Woodson 2.0.
... The Raiders are apparently going after Tom Brady. Lulz. Good luck with that.
... Man, I might not even fill out an NCAA Tournament bracket this year. Why bother?
... I know some of you guys get triggered by LeBron James, but I thought he touched all the right notes in Friday night's tribute to Kobe Bryant. It feels like Friday night was officially the moment he became a Laker.
... Who could have ever thought when Pete Sampras retired in 2003 that he wouldn't even be in the list of the three best men' tennis players that ever lived by 2020?
... Kudos to Novak Djokovic. Because of him there still hasn't been any major winners on the men's side in tennis that were born in the 1990s or later.
... Last three seasons of Mo Salah at Liverpool vs. last three seasons of Cristiano Ronaldo at Manchester United
No. 9 - The List: Updated Oscars rankings ...
I've almost seen them all. I need to knock out Bombshell, Jojo Rabbit, Pain and Glory, and Richard Jewell, but that's it.
Of the most recent watches, I'd say that Marriage Story might stand out from the pack more than any other, mostly because that movie absolutely rocked my soul in all the ways that ensure I'll never go out of my way to watch it again. As much as I loved Adam Driver in it, I don't know that I need to see the performance again.
Anyway, the journey is almost complete.
* indicates that the movie/performance hasn't been seen yet.
Best Picture:
1. Parasite
2. Marriage Story
3. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
4. Little Women
5. 1917
6. The Irishman
7. Joker
8 Ford vs. Ferrari
9. * Jojo Rabbnit
Lead Actor:
1. Adam Driver, "Marriage Story"
2. Joaquin Phoenix, “Joker”
3. Jonathan Pryce, "The Two Popes"
4. Leonardo DiCaprio, “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood”
5. * Antonio Banderas, "Pain and Glory"
Lead Actress:
1. Saoirse Ronan, "Little Women"
2. Scarlett Johansson, "Marriage Story"
3. Cynthia Erivo, "Harriet"
4. Renee Zellweger (Judy)
5. * Charlize Theron, "Bombshell"
Supporting Actor:
1. Brad Pitt “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood”
3. Al Pacino, "The Irishman"
3. Joe Pesci, "The Irishman"
4. Tom Hanks, “It's a Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood”
5. Anthony Hopkins, "The Two Popes"
Supporting Actress:
1. Laura Dern, "Marriage Story"
2. Florence Pugh, "Little Women"
3. * Kathy Bates, "Richard Jewell"
4. * Scarlett Johansson, "Jojo Rabbit"
5. * Margot Robbie, "Bombshell"
Director:
1. Quentin Tarantino, “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood”
2. Joon-HoBong, "Parasite"
3. Sam Mendes, "1917"
4. Martin Scorsese, "The Irishman"
5. Todd Phillips, "Joker"
No.10 - And finally...
Ladies and gentlemen, I give you Chunk. If this doesn't make you smile, I don't know what will.
