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Ketch's 10 Thoughts From the Weekend (It's all about the damn implications...)

@Ketchum @Seminole1981

Great discussion regarding Herman.

To my eyes, the point is simple. Herman certainly wasn't elite when he was hired by Texas and hasn't shown to be elite yet (only a few coaches are BTW). But Herman has flashed in certain aspects regarding program development and management and given that he had only been a head coach for 2 seasons when Texas hired him and was 41 years old, I believe it is safe to assume that he will improve his craft and evolve in a positive direction as he gains experience. Certainly, his recent hires seem to show that he learned to hire the best available to Texas and not just rely on what was sufficient to win at UH (because those are two different things).

Now I don't like Texas to be the school where a head coach gains experience, but it's almost impossible to hire a sure thing these days. IMO, the jury is out on Herman, and this year will tell most of the story. If Herman doesn't win the Big 12 (barring some weird extenuating circumstance) then I probably cross over to the side that believes he is not the long-term answer. But I like Koolaid and believe Herman will win the Big 12 this season, which won't conclusively prove he's elite but will be a good step in that direction.
 
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North Texas Golfer said:
Why would Saban be talking about Coach Fran? He succeeded Shula. And Coach Fran's was 17-8 in his 2 seasons as coach at Bama.

Is there data to support your statement that if you are elite, it shows itself by the 3rd or 4th year?
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Why is anyone still mentioning Mack?

Because it's something... anything... to grab on to in the name of denial.

Do you remember Alex's hot seat study?
 
Ketchum said:
Why is anyone still mentioning Mack?

Because it's something... anything... to grab on to in the name of denial.

Do you remember Alex's hot seat study?
Click to expand...

Alex's hot seat study was informative and useful but there are always exceptions to the rule.

I espouse that most of the coaches Alex cited were not in their first 3 years of being a head coach as was Herman when he was hired after only 2 years head coaching experience. As @Seminole1981 noted above, Saban's first 5 years as a head coach did not look good at all. In fact, it was worse than Herman's first 5 years as a head coach. The same is true for Mack. His first few years as a head coach weren't good. Darrell Royal's first few years as a head coach didn't light the world on fire either. There are countless examples of head coaches improving with experience (especially after their first few years as a head coach). Off the top of my head--look at Coach O, Dabo or Cutcliffe or wait for it...Briles (who was mediocre at Houston and great, as a coach only, at Baylor). The point is, as I noted above, head coaches can and do with some regularity improve their craft. Herman has shown signs of this here. Will he improve enough to be successful long-term at Texas? I don't know. But to conclude he should be fired already is stupid.
 
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horns--21 said:
Alex's hot seat study was informative and useful but there are always exceptions to the rule.

I espouse that most of the coaches Alex cited were not in their first 3 years of being a head coach as was Herman when he was hired after only 2 years head coaching experience. As @Seminole1981 noted above, Saban's first 5 years as a head coach did not look good at all. In fact, it was worse than Herman's first 5 years as a head coach. The same is true for Mack. His first few years as a head coach weren't good. Darrell Royal's first few years as a head coach didn't light the world on fire either. There are countless examples of head coaches improving with experience (especially after their first few years as a head coach). Off the top of my head--look at Coach O, Dabo or Cutcliffe or wait for it...Briles (who was mediocre at Houston and great, as a coach only, at Baylor). The point is, as I noted above, head coaches can and do with some regularity improve their craft. Herman has shown signs of this here. Will he improve enough to be successful long-term at Texas? I don't know. But to conclude he should be fired already is stupid.
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I agree there are exceptions to the rule. I would offer it takes a staggering amount of confirmation bias to assume or believe or suggest that UT's guy is the exception, just because.

You've mentioned some all-time great coaches as the counter-balance to a performance that watched him fire 70-percent of his staff after year three.

Like I said, from my perspective, I'm not saying you're wrong, I'm just saying that the confirmation bias used to get there is strong.
 
Ketchum said:
We're four years into Herman's tenure.

Do you think Saban was still talking about Coach Fran in his fourth year?

I feel what you're saying, but if you're elite, it shows itself by now.
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So when I am Coach Saban, talking to a recruit about UT, does it make more of an impact to say we (UT) have been largely irrelevant for 4 years or 10 ?
 
Ketchum said:
I agree there are exceptions to the rule. I would offer it takes a staggering amount of confirmation bias to assume or believe or suggest that UT's guy is the exception, just because.

You've mentioned some all-time great coaches as the counter-balance to a performance that watched him fire 70-percent of his staff after year three.

Like I said, from my perspective, I'm not saying you're wrong, I'm just saying that the confirmation bias used to get there is strong.
Click to expand...

I am not saying Herman is the guy. As I mentioned in my previous post, I don't know if he is. But I think his story at Texas is not yet written and this season will be telling for Herman.

Stated differently, after season 2 most of us knew Charlie Strong wasn't the guy for Texas. I am not there yet with Herman but feel like I will have better information to assess Herman after this season.
 
Goldenbear44 said:
So when I am Coach Saban, talking to a recruit about UT, does it make more of an impact to say we (UT) have been largely irrelevant for 4 years or 10 ?
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10

But, that doesn't factor into unforced errors that have created Herman's situation at the moment.

It just adds to it.
 
Ketchum said:
Why is anyone still mentioning Mack?

Because it's something... anything... to grab on to in the name of denial.

Do you remember Alex's hot seat study?
Click to expand...

I do remember reading it but would like to re-read it. Can you point me to a link or something? Thanks.
 
horns--21 said:
I am not saying Herman is the guy. As I mentioned in my previous post, I don't know if he is. But I think his story at Texas is not yet written and this season will be telling for Herman.

Stated differently, after season 2 most of us knew Charlie Strong wasn't the guy for Texas. I am not there yet with Herman but feel like I will have better information to assess Herman after this season.
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Can I raise my hand and admit something?

I had this conversation with a staff member yesterday as a matter of fact.

I can't remember when I doubted Charlie, but it was definitely in year one.

My red flag with Tom popped in the second week of his first season when he confessed that he wasn't confident in his abilities to call plays and be the CEO at the same time, while his No.1 rival was seemingly (and now we know convincingly) doing it with relative ease.

He was hired because the BOR and other decision makers were convinced he was an elite offensive wizard and before we were given any kind of extensive view of Herman as the coach at Texas, he volunteered that he was deficient in a critical way that I think all of us were shocked by.
 
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