One week after putting in a Texas Futurecast for Arch Manning, I'm going full-on Ketchstradamus in this week's column as we all count down the hours until spring football begins for Steve Sarkisian's Texas Longhorns.
This activity will be less about what you can expect to see in mid-September with this team as much as it’s a forecast for what you should expect to hear over the course of the next month until everyone gets together for the spring game on April 23.
Here. We. Go.
1. Quinn Ewers doesn't boat-race Hudson Card right out of the gate.
Don't get me wrong, I fully expect Ewers to be the starting quarterback for the Longhorns by the time September rolls around, but I think we all need to account for the fact that the best quarterbacks that this school has produced in the modern era of the sport were a little slow out of the gates in their first spring workouts. That goes for Vince. That goes for Colt. That goes for James Brown. That goes for Sam Ehlinger. We're talking about a teenager that is still learning the offense, his teammates and the overall nuances of a faster sport than high school football. In talking to Ohio State sources after his transfer, it took Ewers some time to adjust in his only semester as a Buckeyes player and we should all be ready to allow for a learning curve in these 15 upcoming workouts.
2. Jonathan Brooks emerges as a hot name at running back.
Bijan is Bijan, but the battle for game snaps among the next four running backs on the Texas roster is going to be as intense as any position battle on the entire roster. As someone that was really skeptical of Brooks coming out of high school, I'm expecting his name to be a buzzword among coaches, players and sources in the coming weeks.
3. Christian Jones emerges as a hot name along the offensive line and all of you will roll your eyes when it's reported.
Hear me out on Jones. For all of the things that Jones hasn't yet been in his career (namely a truly plus-player), he's a guy that has started the last 22 games at tackle, 13 of which have been at left tackle. Last year probably should have been the moment the light switch flipped on if it is ever going to flip on, but going through a coaching staff/scheme/terminology change might have stunted his growth. Maybe this is the year it happens. Considering the lack of quality and depth Texas has coming off the edge, it's quite possible that Jones will have one of the best camps of anyone on the team.
4. Something will give at the wide receiver position in May.
Xavier Worthy, Isaiah Neyor and Jordan Whittington are going to be the starting three at some point, while Marcus Washington gets a lot of run with the starters as well. That means there will be a game of musical chairs with the likes of Kelvontay Dixon, Dajon Harris, Jaden Alexis and Casey Cain. At some point, Troy Omeire is going to be a factor. Same with Brenen Thompson. The guys running third string when the spring game rolls around will have some things to mull over.
5. The light switch won't completely flip on for J'Tavian Sanders
The battle at tight end is such that there are legitimately four or five players that could contribute to the offense in 2022, which means that the battle for playing time will sneakily be as intense as any position not named running back. I'm expecting Sanders to take a step forward this spring, but perhaps not such a large one that it will satisfy the hunger fans have for him.
6. Justice Finkley is getting snaps with the first-team by the end of the first week.
Maybe I should say ... first day? I literally can't tell you why he shouldn't at this point.
7. No Texas inside linebacker is going to play so well that Texas decides to no longer add a transfer at the position.
I've been trying to think about the levels that David Gbenda and Jaylan Ford would need to play at during the spring to keep the coaches from hunting for a starter post-spring and I'm not sure either player can get to that level.
8. Ryan Watts will be getting reps with the starters by the time the team puts pads on next week.
It's possible he would have been the best defensive back on the Texas team a year ago, so it's hard for me to believe it will take him long to start getting run with the 1s.
No. 2 - The Texas Scholarship Board ...
It's been a while since it's really needed an update, but I figured a lot of folks would appreciate it.
No. 3 - Something to drool over ...
I started thinking about a recruiting class that could feature the following players this weekend:
It occurred to me that in the storied history of Texas football recruiting, the Longhorns have never landed a five-star quarterback, a national top-50 running back and a national top-50 wide receiver in the same class.
When Chris Simms signed with the Longhorns in 1999, the likes of running back Ivan Williams, running back Kenny Hayter and wide receiver Artie Ellis were all national top 100-type recruits, but none were ranked as 6.1 or 6.0 by Rivals.com (although tight end Bo Scaife was ranked as a five-star tight end).
Chance Mock had two five-star wide receivers in his class in Roy Williams and BJ Johnson, but Sneezy Beltran wasn't quite viewed at those levels as a recruit.
The same thing happened in 2002 when the Longhorns paired five-star quarterback Vince Young and wide receiver Marquise Johnson (failed to academically qualify), but Selvin Young was only No. 75 nationally.
Garrett Gilbert's class in 2009 didn't feature any elite skill players in it.
The fact is that a trio of Manning, Owens and Cook in the recruiting class would potentially represent the first time in UT recruiting history that the program has ever landed a national top-60 prospect (or better) at quarterback, running back and wide receiver in the same class.
Kind of stunning.
No. 4 - Summing up Chris Beard's first year after a round of 32 exit...
The streak of missing the Sweet 16 is now at 14 years.
There will be a lot of talk about whether Chris Beard's first year was truly a success or not in the coming months, but the bottom line with the Texas basketball program remains the same...
Not quite good enough.
That the Longhorns had a chance to win this game in the final four minutes is a credit to the team's tenacity because the reality is that you don't give yourself a chance to win when you go nearly 10 minutes without a point in the first half, lose the free throw attempt battle by 34, get out-rebounded by 13 and shoot less than 40-percent from the floor against an average defense.
It didn't help that Purdue's All-American playmaker played like the No.1 overall pick in the 2022 Draft for 20 minutes.
There's alternate universe out there where all of those things happen and the Longhorns lose by 30, but all the blood and guts in the world kept this game within finger's reach in the final minutes.
That's a credit to Beard, his staff and the players.
Personally, I'm not sure how to grade the season. There's no question that an exit at the round of 32 would have been seen as a failure before the season started when Texas was a trendy top-five pick. Yet, when you haven't won a Tournament game in 8 years, any win in the Tournament can't be sniffed at.
All I know is that the Sweet 16 streak of misses is at 14.
Texas simply must get better.
No. 5 - A date with destiny ...
A week ago, I cringed when the women's NCAA Tournament bracket came out and I realized that Texas might see Kim Mulkey in the Sweet 16.
Who needs that, right?
But, then I listened to Mulkey this weekend at a press conference and followed that up by watching Texas absolutely throttle a Utah team that hung with everyone on its schedule all season with the exception of Stanford.
I now realize that Texas must not only play Mulkey's Tigers for the right to advance to the Elite 8, but they need to brush her team off just like she brushed off helping the Baylor women's athletes that were involved in the Baylor rape scandal.
The Longhorns team that handled it business this weekend without so much as breaking a hard sweat in back to back wins is suddenly on a 13-game heater, having left a barrage of NCAA Tournament competition scattered in its wake.
It's time for Vic Schaefer to exorcise all of the damn demons and maybe even a few devils.
No. 6 - Back on track ...
It's probably not fair to call the Incarnate Word baseball team a slump-buster for the Texas baseball team, especially after the Cardinals outscored UT-Arlington by a combined 31-6 score in three games just a weekend ago, but they proved to serve as the perfect opponent for a Texas baseball team that had lost 3 of 4 games going into the weekend following a barnstorming trip through the state of South Carolina.
Still, the three game-scoreboard vs. Incarnate Word this weekend: 41-4
There's no reason to throw a parade this week over the sweep and I would warn against overreacting if the Longhorns don't move up in the polls, but with the start of Big 12 play a mere 5 days away, a feel-good-weekend feels like just the potion for this team this weekend.
Next week's trip to Lubbock to take on a Texas Tech team that is 17-3 and has won seven games in a row won't be a walk in the park.
No. 7 – BUY or SELL …
(Buy) First of all, I love the question. There's a reason why it's batting lead-off tonight. I'm not sure that the rest of the nation will be paying much attention because it will still feel like Texas is screaming that it's back when it's not like so many other times, but I tend to agree with you about the state of the future with regards to the athletics programs at Texas. The leaders at the school have made winning at a high level in athletics a priority not seen in a few decades. The result is a collection of major programs operating at nationally elite levels in a variety of key areas. But, now comes the hard part ... closing the deals.
Exciting times.
(Buy) I think the best is yet to come with the trio of @AaronLittleOB, @ZachattheDisch and @Travis Galey. Conference play begins this week and you can see the quality of their content evolving along the way. Thanks for taking the time to give them props!
(Buy) Death, taxes and Eddie Reese winning nattys.
(Buy) There's a part of me that wants to say no out of respect to someone like Clarissa Davis, but 1986 was a long time ago. The women's program has needed that Ford-level pied piper that can be the face of the program, the leader on the floor and a total bad-ass that can elevate the program from the land of the very good to the mountaintop that the elite reside on. She's the chosen one.
(Sell) That feels extreme.
(Sell) That's the kind of benefit of the doubt that has to be earned and surely it hasn't been earned yet.
(Sell) Three years feels like a really long time. He's going to need an injury to help his cause.
(Sell) This sounds like just the kind of thing that kills a place like Dirty Martins. Hope I'm way wrong.
(Sell) I'm pretty unexcited as a Cowboys fan if I'm being completely honest.
(Sell) Just a gut feeling.
(Buy) History tells me it's the way more likely thing to happen.
(Sell/Buy) I'm not buying this defense knocking five points off its points allowed per game, but if Texas is +14 per game in scoring margin, it likely means that it is beating the hell out of some folks.
(Buy) I probably need you to define competitive because of its extreme subjectiveness, but I think it's close for two quarters.
(Sell) That feels extreme at this point.
(Buy) It's a baby buy because of the recent history of the program, but in the future, the bar will be higher and it'll need to be cleared.
No. 8 - Scattershooting on the sports weekend ...
... I'm all-in on Saint Peter's. That team had me at hello.
... Folks, we're not getting better theater for the rest of the Tournament that will be better than what UNC/Baylor gave us. It was almost impossible to believe as it unfolded.
... Am I allowed to say that I don't emphatically love Chet Holmgren as a pro basketball prospect? I mean ... I get it. He's a 7-foot space creator because of his shooting range, so he's likely going to be a valuable NBA player for that reason alone for the next two decades, but I don't know that I believe he's ever going to be an all-NBA level player. That being said, he seems like a first-class young man from everything I've read and heard, so I'll be rooting for him as long as he's not a member of the Celtics.
... I love Drew Timme. A college coach would give his soul to have a guy like that in his program for four years.
... Kansas should feel really disappointed if it doesn't make it to the Final Four. The road is paved very nicely for them. No offense, Providence.
... Man, I was really pulling for Rick. You've got to beat the No. 11 seed in that spot when you've only been to the Sweet 16 once since 2009.
... In the end, things worked out incredibly well for DeShaun Watson.
... Rusty Hardin is some kind of lawyer. He's a first-ballot Hall of Famer, right?
... Tank the 2022 season, Texans. Just tank it and cash in those draft picks.
... So, the Falcons are just going to rock with Matt Ryan for another year?
... The Dallas Cowboys are worse today than they were a week ago. No other way to put it. I wonder if the Texans are closer to a championship ...
... LeBron James now has more career points in the NBA than Karl Malone and is 68 assists away from passing Magic Johnson in career assists. It's pretty crazy to think he's going to likely pass Kareem in career points in the next year. He's going to finish his career first in all-time points and either second or third all-time in assists. He has four rings.
... My Phillies might end up being historically bad on defense this season, but their offense is going to put up a lot of crooked numbers on the scoreboard. F it. Let's go have some fun.
... Real Madrid looked like a team that caught a virus from PSG in its loss to Barcelona on Sunday. Even Everton is wondering what that was about.
No. 9 - The List: Breaking down next week's Oscars ...
I want to apologize for letting you guys down.
With the Academy Awards going down next Sunday, there are still three movies that I haven't seen among the major nominations: Drive My Car, King Richard and Parallel Mothers.
Considering Will Smith is likely to win the Oscar for best Actor, I clearly need to knock out King Richard in the next few days.
Yet, I can't speak on it tonight with regards to my own personal rankings. My bad.
Best Picture
1. Dune
2. CODA
3. Belfast
4. The Power of the Dog
5. West Side story
6. Licorice Pizza
7. Nightmare Alley
8. Don’t Look Up
You're not going to change my mind about Dune. It's such a spectacular film-making accomplishment on so many levels that it has to be the choice from my point of view against a landscape of pretty ok Best Picture nominations along side it. I enjoyed the hell out of CODA. It really does push a lot of buttons from a consumption standpoint, so it's not surprising that it's surging and potentially a new favorite over The Power of the Dog.
Best Actor
1. Denzel Washington - The Tragedy of Macbeth
2. Benedict Cumberbatch - The Power of the Dog
3. Andrew Garfield - Tick, Tick… Boom
4. Javier Bardem - Being the Ricardos
Still need to see Will Smith (King Richard)
Cumberbatch is the best thing about The Power of the Dog from an acting standpoint, but I thought Washington was sensational in Macbeth. Smith is a monster betting favorite, so we'll see how I feel about his performance later in the week.
Best Actress
1. Olivia Colman - The Lost Daughter
2. Jessica Chastain - The Eyes of Tammy Faye
3. Kristin Stewart - Spencer
4. Nicole Kidman - Being the Ricardos
Still need to see: Penelope Cruz (Parallel Mothers)
It feels like Chastain is going to win this, but this is my favorite Colman performance. She's better in The Lost Daughter than she is in The Favourite.
Best Supporting Actor
1. Ciarán Hinds - Belfast
2. Troy Kotsure - CODA
3. Kodi Smit-McPhee - The Power of the Dog
4. J.K. Simmins - Being the Ricardos
5. Jesse Plemons - The Power of the Dog
It's a coin toss for me between Hinds and Kotsure, but this is likely going to be a Kotsure runaway.
Best Supporting Actress
1. Jessie Buckley - The Lost Daughter
2. Kirsten Dunst - The Power of the Dog
3. Judi Dench - Belfast
4. Ariana DeBose - West Side Story
Still need to see: Aunjanue Ellis (King Richard)
I guess I'm a stan for The Lost Daughter.
Best Director
1. Jane Champion- The Power of the Dog
2. Kenneth Branagh - Belfast
3. Steven Spielberg - West Side Story
4. Paul Thomas Anderson - Licorice Pizza
Still need to see: Ryusuke Hamaguchi (Drive My Car)
I have a sneaking suspicion that Drive My Car is going to make me think twice about this ranking, but as boring as Champion's movie is, it's a wonderful work of art.
No. 10 - And Finally...
Dogs, man.
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