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Ketch's 10 Thoughts From the Weekend (My annual Groundhog Day column...)

Nothing about this opening section of the column is very profound, but in the aftermath of some coaching staff shuffling and the addition of Herb Hand, I felt like it's a point that needs to be stressed ...

Again.

For the eighth consecutive season following the 2010 disaster.

This program simply isn't going to go anywhere until it has plus-quarterback play and the combined efforts of Sam Ehlinger and Shane Buechele was about as far removed from plus-quarterback play as it gets, as evidenced by the team's combined 123.86 efficiency rating, a mark so low that I felt shame in even typing it out.

We can talk about the offensive line or running backs or anything on the defense or even the next Aussie punter, but none of it is going to matter if massive strides aren't made with the most important position on the field.

Consider that the likes of Greg Davis, Bryan Harsin, Major Applewhite, Shawn Watson, Jay Norvell and Tim Beck have all had their hands on the Texas offense in those eight seasons and none of them ever seemed overly-capable in that role because the quarterbacks they've worked with are the type that get people fired, rather than promoted.

Whatever you think of Shane Buechele or Sam Ehlinger at the moment, and opinions about both are incredibly varied, what happens with them this off-season is light years more important than what happens with all of the other positions on the team combined. Yes, an improved offensive line will help the quarterbacks, but I'd argue that excellent quarterback play is the tide that truly lifts all boats.

Remember Colt McCoy in 2008-09? Playing with a group of linemen in front of him that all went undrafted, McCoy was able to put the team on his shoulders and put the program on the cusp of two national championship game appearances.

I know you guys are tired of talking or hearing about this, but Tom Herman's tenure in Austin depends on his ability to put this issue to bed by any means necessary. If it takes a grad transfer to make that happen ... whatever. By any means necessary means BY ANY MEANS NECESSARY.

Believe me, I would l-o-v-e to write about something else because this topic has turned into my own personal Groundhog Day, but every other discussion is a moot point until we can get to a point where I can ditch this yearly topic.

Deep down, you're beyond tired of it, but you know it to be true.

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No. 2 – By the numbers... [/I]

Here's a look at the Texas team quarterback ratings for the last eight seasons and the five seasons before them. This isn't rocket science.

Last eight seasons

2010: 111.1
2011: 122.1
2012: 154.4 (only season this decade that witnessed Texas win 9 games)
2013: 117.7
2014: 116.2
2015: 120.5
2016: 134.4
2017: 123.9

Previous five seasons

2009: 147.7*
2008: 175.1
2007: 135.9
2006: 155.9
2005: 160.9

* I listed Colt McCoy's individual numbers instead of the team number.

No. 3 – The elephant in the room ...


Sam Ehlinger does everything you want your starting quarterback to do off the field. I thought his tweet this weekend as part of the ongoing recruiting efforts to land Calvin Anderson was a perfect touch.

Now comes the difficult part. He needs to boost his quarterback rating up 30-40 points for the 2018 season to give this program a chance to win 9 games and compete for the conference title.

The toughness is there. The flashes of greatness are there. The accountability is there. So is the leadership.

As a person that is regarded as one of the best developers of quarterbacks in the country, it shouldn't be that hard for Herman to get that kind of play out of his sophomore-to-be.

No. 4 - The 2019 recruiting war between the Longhorns/Aggies has officially begun ...


While the 2018 recruiting class for Jimbo Fisher has mostly resided in the dumpster, the real value of his hire and the staff he has put together was always going to be measured by what happens in the 2019 class.

On Sunday, A&M landed arguably the state's best player.

Yes, the commit comes from a player that plays the same position as a host of big-time players that Texas has signed in 2018, but it also comes from a player that was previously very high on the Longhorns, one that hails from an area of the state in which Texas must do better.

It's not the end of the world and I'm not screaming "Fire!" into a crowded theater, but the hand-to-hand combat that will take place in the next 13 months began in earnest on Saturday. The coaching staff that has been the subject of a few laughs for the last few weeks got in a chuckle over the weekend.

Buckle up. It's on.

No. 5 – Now the fun begins ...

I don't really have any profound thoughts from this weekend on the men's basketball front. For the most part, the Longhorns continue to hold serve at home in conference play (and in general) and at the current pace the team is solidly projected as an NCAA Tournament team.

Yet, as anyone who follows this team knows, the homestretch of the schedule is pretty treacherous and whatever happens in the next six weeks will likely define this season more than anything that has happened in the first 10 weeks.

A nine-seed today could turn into a no-seed in March if Shaka Smart and Co. don't handle some business. It's that simple.

Next up: Texas Tech in Lubbock on Wednesday night and at home against the Sooners on Saturday. A split of those games would be more than fine. Actually, more than fine, it's needed.

No. 6 – The final steps are proving to be the hardest ...

Karen Aston's Longhorns won by 22 at home this weekend to move their record to 16-4, yet I have to be honest, it was hard to take the brain off of what went down in Waco a few days earlier.

81-56.

I'm not sure the score properly painted the picture of what Baylor did to the Longhorns, which was anything it wanted.

This is Aston's sixth season as head coach in Austin (has it really been that long????) and after taking baby steps forward in her first four seasons as head coach, things stalled out a year ago when her team couldn't slay the green Big 12 dragon with a conference title on the line and the same thing is happening again this season.

I'm just not sure what to make of the program right now. Everyone has been keen to call this program one that's on the rise, but is it still rising? Aston has clearly done a good job because we're talking about the highest of high expectations, the kind that Shaka Smart would love to be answering over on the men's side of things, but I keep thinking that Aston and Co. are going to take another step forward and it's been a couple of years now since we've seen that happen.

It seems unlikely that this team is going to win anything this year that would justify raising a banner and I guess what I'm wondering is this ...

At what point are there demands that Aston win something that warrants raising a banner? Will there ever be those type of demands?

No. 7 – Buy or Sell …
buy-or-sell-stock-ideas-by-experts-for-december-20-2017.jpg


BUY or SELL: UT lands 6 of the 8 remaining recruiting targets (Bush not included)
Joshua Moore
Ossai
Ojomo
Keys
Anderson
Tucker
Preston
Jones (the OL just offered)


(Buy) Yeah, six sounds about right.

BUY or SELL: If we finish with commits on hand plus Ossai, Oromo, Anderson and Keys, this class would be best ever based on needs?

(Sell) The class of 2002 filled the biggest need in the history of the program. Does this class have Vince Young in it?

BUY or SELL: Jalen Preston takes his official to UT next weekend?

(Sell) My gut says 85-percent no, but my gut is useless and I'm trying to lose it.

Note: It was a joke. I'm only saying no because a lot of last weekend visits get cancelled each year. It won't be a shock to see him cancel.

BUY or SELL: Texas will have the best defense in the B12 next year?

(Buy) In Orlando's second season, I trust.

BUY or SELL: I think our sophomores to be are going to be very strong along with our incoming freshmen. Do you think our upper classmen will finally hold their own on and off the field, especially in the leadership department?

(Sell) I don't have faith in the upperclassmen. Speaking of storylines that need to go away ...

BUY or SELL: Tom Herman was wrong mocking Missouri's QB on the sidelines?

(Sell) Only a small group of Texas fans are still thinking about that. It's way over.

BUY or SELL: Texas MBB finishes the last ten games with at least 5 wins?

(Buy) I think they get exactly five wins in the final 10 games.

BUY or SELL: WBB gets to the Elite 8?

(Sell) The team's shooting will cost it in the round of 32 or 16.

BUY or SELL: Unlike some football seasons, Coach Pierce is telling the truth that this off-season was his best ever?

(Sell) I'm sorry, but that sounded exactly like something Mack Brown said for approximately 10 consecutive off-seasons. Then Charlie said it. Oh, and then there was Herman claiming the offensive line reminded him of the one he won a national title with. You'll forgive me if I've just heard that line too many times.

BUY or SELL: I have retired from asking buy or sell questions?

(Sell) Keep trying, you'll eventually make it.

No. 8 – Eternal Randomness of the Spotty Sports Mind …

... New England 27 Philadelphia 17

... I watched exactly zero seconds of the Pro Bowl.

... Although I don't expect him to make the cut, it's about time that Everson Walls had his turn in front of Hall of Fame voters.

... Damn, Roger Federer. Just damn.

... Attaboy, Tiger. Now, do it again.

... Steph vs. Kyrie made for great Saturday night theater.

... I have a feeling that the loss of Boogie Cousins is eventually going to cost the Pelicans the player that matters the most ... Anthony Davis.

... Soooo, this happened on Sunday night.


... Then this happened.


... The NBA is sooooo good.

... It's been a rough last six days for Liverpool, but my support for Jurgen Klopp hasn't diminished so much as a fraction. The Reds merely need to dig deep and find an extra layer of resolve than they've shown. Little piece of advice ... go get Allison and go get Lemar. The future has to be now.

... Real Madrid seems to be bouncing back just in time to be quite a scary hurdle for PSG.

No. 9 – Updated Oscar rankings …

I may or may not have hushed an old lady at the Alamo Draft House this weekend.

Actually, I may or may not have hushed the female version of Statler and Waldorf at the Alamo Draft House this weekend.

I don't know how else to explain it, except that these two had a comment for everything that happened, whether it was in the previews or once the actual movie (The Post) started. Both women laughed when the screen announced that the theater was a quiet zone and joked that they had to stop talking, but they never did.

I let it go long enough that my wife was on the verge of taking action, which I didn't want, so right after Waldorf talked loud enough to force my wife to start penning a snitch note to hand to our server, I leaned over to her and asked, "Can you guys please stop talking during the movie?"

"Thank you," she replied.

She then whispered (the only time she whispered the entire time she was in the theater) into her friend's ear what I had requested and for the most part, the two stopped their running commentary of the Nixon years and what they remembered during them. For the most part.

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p.s. Meryl Streep did cartwheels around the rest of an all-star cast. Frankly, she carried the movie with her best performance since Julia and Julia.

My updated Oscars rankings (my picks, not my picks of the actual nominations)

(Still need to see: All the Money in the World, Call Me By Your Name, The Florida Project, Phantom Thread, and Roman J. Israel, Esq)

Best Picture

1. Lady Bird
2. The Shape of Water
3. Darkest Hour
4. Get Out
5. I, Tonya
6. The Post
7. The Disaster Artist
8. Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
9. Dunkirk
10. The Big Sick

Best Actor

1. Gary Oldman (Darkest Hour)
2. James Franco (The Disaster Artist)
3. Daniel Kaluuya (Get Out)
4. Adam Driver (The Last Jedi)
5. Jeremy Renner (Wind River)

Best Actress

1. Sally Hawkins (The Shape of Water)
2. Meryl Streep (The Post)
3. Saoirse Ronan (Lady Bird)
4. Frances McDormand (Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri)
5. Margot Robbie (I, Tonya)

Best Supporting Actor

1. Michael Shannon (The Shape of Water)
2. Sam Rockwell (Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri)
3. Richard Jenkins (The Shape of Water)
4. Jason Mitchell (Mudbound)
5. Rob Morgan (Mudbound)

Best Supporting Actress

1. Laurie Metcalf (Lady Bird)
2. Allison Janney (I,Tonya)
3. Holly Hunter (The Big Sick)
4. Carey Mulligan (Mudbound)
5. Kristin Scott Thomas (Darkest Hour)

Best Director

1. The Shape of Water (Guillermo del Toro)
2. Greta Gerwig (Lady Bird)
3. Jordan Peele (Get Out)
4. Christopher Nolan (Dunkirk)
5. Denis Villeneuve (Blade Runner 2049)

No. 10 – And Finally …

Burn it all down. All of it. Sports can't matter this much, Coach.
#1 is +1
 
I would take a Chance Mock too but put a true freshman Mock or Mayfield on last years team and you probably get the same results. Even if Sam takes the next step this season Texas will probably only improve a few games if the rest of his teammates don’t improve also. Texas keeps putting young freshmen QBs in and tell them to carry the team with nothing but mediocrity surrounding them.
“Texas”? You mean “we” right, troll?!
 
@Ketchum

You initial comments bring to mind these classic rock lyrics:

Everyone I know, everywhere I go
People need some reason to believe
I don't know about anyone but me

I look around for the friends that I used to turn to to pull me through
Looking into their eyes I see them running too

Running on - running on empty
Running on - running blind
Running on - running into the sun
But I'm running behind
 
The problem with our women's basketball team is our best players are our guards who shoot jump shots. The strength of Baylor's team is that their best players are post players who shoot layups. Any team needs jump shooters, but layups beat jump shots and will in the tournament.
 
it's on both. Herman's future at Texas may rest on it, so it needs to be a chief piece of focus.

Agreed. But for qb meltdowns against Ok St and Tech, we were 8 and 4. Late-in-game meltdown problem is particularly problematic b/c u don’t know if it’s fixed until u get near the end of another close game. Practice tells you very little b/c the problem only rears it’s ugly head when qb is under pressure on game day.
 
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I realize that the QB is the key position but I cannot remember a strong position group in that time period from 2010. No TEs, poor OL for the most part. Adequate WRs and RBs for the most part.

Colt got to start his career off as a redshirt freshman with an experienced and good OL and he looked great. Next year he went backwards because many of the good OL graduated. Next year he was sensational while relying on two great WRs in Cosby and Shipley. His senior year Colt looked average at times because of poor OL play and no running game. He still put the team on his shoulders and nearly won a MNC.

The chances of getting another QB that can pull off what Colt did with his surrounding teammates is going to be like winning the lottery. I guarantee Baker Mayfield does not get that 2009 Texas team to the MNC game without an OL and running game. The other position groups need to get better also. That is what is so frustrating because you cannot tell if the poor position play is effected by others because they are all poor or just adequate.
Wise post. The problem with playing hyperbole game that @Ketchum likes to play is football factors in more of that. There are a lot of QB’s out there where the coach just wants them to manage the game. We’ve had QB’s that could have given us more than what we’ve gotten but we didn’t get it done in a lot of areas. Last year was a definitely turning the tide moment. Sam knows he has to get better. Shane knows he needs better pocket presence. But these kids just were not ready for the next level as freshman behind that line. Herman is not complicated. You see him scrambling for OLine talent? Of course he knows where the problem is. Two Qb’s in this class and a new OLine coach. Sam will be better next year, especially with that running game.
 
Wait, you are asserting The Post is better than 3 Billboards? Hell, The Post is good but not as good as I,Tonya - much less 3 billboards. Good lord. I mean, I liked it and Streep was almost as good as Frances, but neither she nor the Post is getting the statue this year.

And amen to everything you said about QB.
I just said that 3 Billboards didn't stick the ending. Both are in the same neighborhood for me this year. Really liked, but not awesome.
 
lol yeah not the same thing. Did you ever think Eagles would make it to the Super Bowl after Wentz went down? Yeah I didn’t think so.
whatever you need to help you sleep this week, man, whatever you need.
 
izzo is f'n scum...he deserves no mercy along with the rest of the pathetic enablers.
 
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WBB actually beat Iowa State by 32 Saturday. But you are right that it doesn’t matter. Baylor is an awful matchup for Texas and I have been concerned about post play since before the season started. Texas needs Joyner Holmes to continue working herself back into shape and more minutes. Similarly White has hardly played for two season before this one and is still improving. But against Baylor Texas will never have an advantage inside this season. This team will go as far as the guards can take them. They might have the best set of three guards in the country. But they didn’t play like that Thursday. Baylor is still in their heads and I thought they were past that issue. Still a fun team to watch. I’m hoping they find their stride at just the right time.

McCarty is a liability...too inconsistent, and turns the ball over waaay too much. Can’t have that from your point guard if the goal is to reach elite status once again.
 
Didn't the Texas women BB team beat Baylor in Wacko last year?? If so, you have to give a little credit to them for doing that. They just couldn't hit shots worth a crap the other day there.
Texas collapsed when it mattered most last year.
 
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The problem with our women's basketball team is our best players are our guards who shoot jump shots. The strength of Baylor's team is that their best players are post players who shoot layups. Any team needs jump shooters, but layups beat jump shots and will in the tournament.
I don't find the Texas shooters to be all that great, so that's a problem.
 
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3 Billboards way too low

Serious holes in the script, the least of which isn't a fire-bombing of a police station in 2017, which watches the police ignore the prime suspect because one person claims that she was with him.
 
what
Wise post. The problem with playing hyperbole game that @Ketchum likes to play is football factors in more of that. There are a lot of QB’s out there where the coach just wants them to manage the game. We’ve had QB’s that could have given us more than what we’ve gotten but we didn’t get it done in a lot of areas. Last year was a definitely turning the tide moment. Sam knows he has to get better. Shane knows he needs better pocket presence. But these kids just were not ready for the next level as freshman behind that line. Herman is not complicated. You see him scrambling for OLine talent? Of course he knows where the problem is. Two Qb’s in this class and a new OLine coach. Sam will be better next year, especially with that running game.
piece of the discussion is hyperbole game? Can you quote it?
 
Serious holes in the script, the least of which isn't a fire-bombing of a police station in 2017, which watches the police ignore the prime suspect because one person claims that she was with him.
Yeah I do agree with that.
 
Wait, you are asserting The Post is better than 3 Billboards? Hell, The Post is good but not as good as I,Tonya - much less 3 billboards. Good lord. I mean, I liked it and Streep was almost as good as Frances, but neither she nor the Post is getting the statue this year.

And amen to everything you said about QB.
I just said that 3 Billboards didn't stick the ending. Both are in the same neighborhood for me this year. Really liked, but not awesome.

I think the ending was perfect. The Post ending was good as well. As far as story telling 3 billboards is easily the winner and takes it home.
 
McCarty is a liability...too inconsistent, and turns the ball over waaay too much. Can’t have that from your point guard if the goal is to reach elite status once again.

Until very recently McCarty has been the best shooter on this team. Over 3+ years she has been one of the best 3-point shooters in Texas history and an incredibly consistent scorer. I can’t really complain about someone having one shooting slump in 4 years. And she stays in the floor in large part because she takes care of the ball. You don’t usually get on the Naismith watch list if you are a liability. She has struggled recently. But she still runs this team effectively. Just watch what happens when she is on the bench. Texas has a liability inside.
 
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