Now that Quinn Ewers is getting ready for the NFL Draft and near-universal attention turns to the players who will be on the field against Ohio State in 7+ months, is it possible that the most scrutinized player in the Texas program is about to become ...
D.J. Campbell?
This far out from the start of the season, it's hard to forecast that the only sure-fire scheduled senior on next year's offensive line will prove to be the weekly talking point on the UT offense in the same way that his fellow five-star Ewers was for each of the last few seasons, but ... am I allowed to say something potentially unpopular?
This is a safe space, right? No one will cancel their subscription if I say a not-so-positive thing about any of the players on the roster, right? You guys love... er ... like me enough to tolerate a Sunday night scorcher, right?
I'm losing confidence in where this is going to get me by the second ... ok, I'm just going to say it ... Campbell is kind of a 5-star bust. A mini-bust if you will. In fact, there's no player in the Texas program that I think I know how to discuss less properly than the former Arlington Bowie star, who we greatly obsessed over from 2020-2021 as a prospect.
On one hand, Campbell has made 30 starts over the last two seasons at right guard for a team that has twice been a national semi-finalist.
On the other hand, Campbell was the least-trusted starter on the offensive line this year, at least if we're basing it on the fact that he was the only starter sharing snaps this season, let alone doing so with the lowest-graded player on the entire line as his primary competition.
On one hand, Campbell enjoyed his single-best season with the Longhorns, finishing with both his highest-scores in the @Alex Dunlap Deep Dig and PFF season rankings.
On the other hand, he allowed more quarterback hits (6) than the rest of the starting offensive line combined (5) and had the worst snaps per disruption number (24.83) among all of the regular starting offensive linemen.
When it's all said and done, I'm pretty sure that Campbell is going to be drafted by an NFL team and collect some paychecks. Assuming he stays healthy, he's going to be a three-year starter for one of the most successful three-year runs that the Longhorns have had in the last 50 years.
Yet, it's hard to shake the feeling that the Longhorns haven't quite received what was expected of him when he was recruited in the famed 2022 Class of Beef. He's not just a player that hasn't emerged as an all-SEC type of talent, he's a player that hasn't shaken free of Cole Hutson going into year four.
That's disappointing no matter how you slice it.
Of course, the hope will be that he can take a step forward as a player in 2025 similar to the steps we've seen from Texas veteran interior defensive linemen in recent years. Could he be next season's Alfred Collins or T'Vondre Sweat? Maybe. There's a plus-player inside of Campbell at times, especially in the ground game. In a world where most offensive linemen need to redshirt, we'd probably be looking at Campbell quite differently had he started in 2024 and still had multiple seasons of eligibility remaining.
Still, this Texas offensive line will come under the spotlight in 2025 as it protects the most famous name in the sport and Campbell will be expected to lead the unit. His legacy will receive attention in 2025 that it hasn't thus far in the first three seasons. It always goes that way for 5-star prospects.
You were/are either a star ... or something much less than that. At the moment, Campbell hasn't been a star during his collegiate career.
No. 2 - A Quick look at the 2022 OL recruiting class ...
It's too early to throw a grade on Kyle Flood's 2022 class, but we can probably start getting ready to put our grading hats on as Kelvin Banks heads to the NFL and the rest of the class heads into the homestretch of their college careers.
As a reminder, the Longhorns signed an astounding seven offensive linemen in the 2022 class, which doesn't even include long-snapper Lance St. Louis.
When I last did my national offensive line recruiting analysis in 2020 (time for an update!), the numbers showed that roughly 50% of 5-star offensive linemen have historically been drafted, while the number drops to 34% for high 4 stars, 23.0% for mid-4-stars and 14.7% for low 4-stars.
Using this data (@o5prey and I have been having this conversation for years), it was probably fair but understated to say that the math shows that the Longhorns could realistically hit on two or three of the seven.
No one ever wants to say the quiet thing out loud, but 5-star offensive linemen miss more than they hit, which means that it was statistically probable that one of either Banks or Campbell would miss (on being drafted) for any number of reasons. Even if Campbell ends up being a mini-miss because of missing high-end quality, he's basically the highest possible quality of miss on paper, while Banks is the highest end of the highest quality discussion.
Of the next five players in the group, the historical data suggests that none arrived with better than a 23% chance of being drafted, which means that it would be likely that one from a group of Cam Williams, Neto Umeozulu, Cole Hutson, Malik Agbo and Connor Robertson would end up being a drafted player, but probably not two.
As things stand, Williams is going to be a hit on the highest quality from this tier of players. The combination of Banks and Williams makes this class a success. Campbell going down as a definite hit would make this group possibly the best offensive line class in school history. If one of Umeozulu, Hutson, Agbo or Robertson can emerge as a plus-player that gets drafted, this group will without question go down as the best OL class in school history.
All it took was hitting on a couple of super blue chips and beating the projected math by one or two players. These are really small margins, but they've gone in UT's favor in an amazing substantial way.
No. 3 - Final Season PFF Grades ...
For the sake of putting a ribbon and bow on the 2024 season, I thought we'd take a look at the final season grades for the Longhorns (minimum of 5 games played) according to PFF.
Let's start with the offense (all returning players in bold):
80+ grades
QB Arch Manning: 88.0
LT Kelvin Banks 86.2
RB Tre Wisner 80.8
70-79 grades
WR Matthew. Golden 74.0
WR Silas Bolden 73.8
RB Jaydon Blue 73.1
C Jake Majors 72.7
QB Quinn Ewers 72.5
RB Jerrick Gibson 71.1
LG Hayden Conner 70.9
60-69 grades
WR Isaiah Bond 68.9
RG D.J. Campbell 68.3
RB Ryan Niblett 68.2
OT Cameron Williams 67.3
WR Deandre Moore 65.0
WR Ryan Wingo 64.6
TE Gunnar Helm 62.9
LT Trevor Goosby 62.6
RG Cole Hutson 61.7
Now let's look at the defense (all returning players in bold):
80+ grades
CB Jahdae Barron 91.1
S Andrew Mukuba 90.0
DT Alfred Collins 87.2
DT Vernon Broughton 86.1
S Michael Taaffe 85.1
DE Colin Simmons 82.5
LB David Gbenda 81.7
70-79 grades
Edge Trey Moore 75.8
DT Jermayne Lole 74.8
LB Anthony Hill 73.0
S Jelani McDonald 71.8
CB Malik Muhammad 71.7
DE Barryn Sorrell 71.6
60-69 grades
LB TyAnthony Smith 68.0
CB Kobe Black 67.5
CB Jaylon Guilbeeau 66.2
DE Colton Vasek 65.8
CB Gavin Holmes 64.8
DE Ethan Burke 64.7
LB Liona Lefau 63.9
DT Alex January 63.2
DT Bill Norton 61.8
It's kind of crazy to think that the offense only has three players that will be returning with a minimum grade of at least a 70 and that Manning is one of them. This is a seriously unproven offense going into the game in Columbus.
Meanwhile, the defense is clearly the strength of the team when it comes to proven plus-players.
No. 4 - A slightly different Tashard Choice take ...
File this under the things you probably haven't read in the last few days, but I had a slightly different reaction to the departure of Tashard Choice to the NFL.
First, you could kind of see this coming from a mile away to some degree when you consider that his name was being mentioned with NFL jobs when those NFL jobs didn't have head coaches in place. That let me know an agent was doing his/her job.
Second, I thought Choice did a very nice job at Texas and is probably a top-five running backs coach in college football, but I'm not sure that the Longhorns got the best years out of him while he was on the staff.
As a recruiter, Choice did a rock solid job of landing one super blue chip (Cedric Baxter) and three more prospects that were borderline, but none of his recruited players in the two classes that have been on campus have made a massive splash, even if injuries have had a major say in that. Still, none of his recruited backs have averaged more than 5.0 yards per carry in their careers up until now.
What really put the jam on the Texas running game toast for the last three seasons was the recruiting work done by Stan Drayton, as the fruit provided by the recruitments of Bijan Robinson, Roschon Johnson, Jonathon Brooks and Jaydon Blue has proven to be quite delectable. Incredibly, the running back position has depended on Tom Herman's recruiting success similar to the defensive tackle position.
All of this isn't to say that Choice isn't terrific ... because he is ... I'm just making the case that the Texas running game success from 2022-2024 wasn't operating solely on Choice's creation through development and recruiting.
It translates to Texas needing to replace a top-five level assistant coach at his position, but probably not top-five production from the same assistant coach over three seasons.
No. 5 - Good grief, Justin ...
Call me crazy, but I don't think we're ever going to see or hear from Justin Tucker ever again.
Maybe that's a good thing. Maybe it's a really good thing.
According to continued local reporting in Baltimore, 16 different women from eight different spas have stepped forward to accuse Justin Tucker of an assortment of bad massage parlor etiquettes. SIXTEEN!
Just for full transparency ... there is currently no civil suit filed against Tucker. Perhaps there will be one later, but these women don't appear to be gravy-training as much as they seem to feel comfortable and safe to speak out. Meanwhile, Tucker claims all of this is false, but he's not suing anyone ... not a newspaper or person ... over a single alleged false claim.
I'll be honest when I tell you that I don't care about Deshaun Watson. He's a creep. His situation has nothing to do with this from my perspective. What I do care about is that Tucker looks like a horrible human being who (at best) doesn't respect women.
That's pretty much a deal-killer for me. I don't care that he's probably the best I've ever seen or beat Texas A&M or sings in the shower. I care that he allegedly can't respect massage therapists enough to not become a national creep.
He's never kicking in the NFL again. Any post-career media opportunities that once existed are burnt toast. I suppose the only question at this point is whether we're going to see some sort of a press conference occur where he doesn't take questions but denies all wrongdoing before he disappears for the long haul.
I'm thinking the answer is no.
No. 6 - Damn, that boy is good ...
Depending on how much post-season basketball you believe the Longhorns will play in March, Tre Johnson has potentially as few as seven games remaining as a Longhorn.
Enjoy him while you can.
The soon-to-be-lottery-pick has been a revelation for the Longhorns all season, but since exploding for 30 points in a win over top-10 Texas A&M last month, the star freshman has been playing at new heights. Johnson is averaging 19.8 points per game, but that number has climbed to 23.7 in his last seven games against SEC competition, including 27.0 points against No. 13 A&M, No. 23 Ole Miss, No. 2 Alabama and No. 15 Kentucky.
On top of that, his rebounding and passing numbers are spiking as well, as highlighted by a career-high 9 rebounds against the Wildcats and four of his last fives games featuring at least 4 assists (2.6 average on the season).
I know a few people rolled their eyes a few weeks ago when I mentioned that this Texas team has Sweet 16 upside, but as long as it has Johnson playing at All-America levels, it won't be a team that anyone wants to face on the opening weekend. Texas goes into every game with a nuclear offensive weapon and he's starting to really feel himself against the biggest and best teams on the Texas schedule.
I've been wondering about how we're going to place Johnson among the sport's all-time greats at Texas when he's gone and I'm not sure how we're going to fully evaluate his season. Considering the Longhorns haven't had an All-American in the line-up since Jordan Hamilton was a consensus second-team All-American in 2011, we all need to be open-minded about the fact that Johnson is one of the best offensive players that the school has ever produced.
I mean ... he's basically been performing at Travis Mays levels for the last month.
If this team can make the Tournament (and it looks like it will), Johnson is going to give it a chance to be remembered for all time, as the program has been to the Sweet 16 only eight times since the Tournament expanded to 32 teams in 1974 (it expanded to 64 in 1985).
Folks, it's a live ticket.
No. 7 – A few random UT athletics things ...
a. I don't think this Texas women's team is winning a national title, but the team that eventually eliminates them is going to come away quite battered because Texas will scratch and claw through the skin until the end.
b. In an absolutely loaded SEC, the Longhorns currently stand alone in first place with a 12-1 record. The final teams in the SEC regular season schedule for Texas combine for a 11-25 record, so it'll be a massive disappointment if they don't claim a share of the regular-season title. South Carolina's last four are a little tougher, but they should also expect to finish at 15-1.
c. Consider me impressed that Texas has played as well without Arthur Kaluma as they have. I didn't think they could win games against teams like Kentucky without him on the floor and playing well.
d. The No. 1 Texas softball team is 11-0 and won five games over the weekend, including two games against top-10 Texas Tech, with the second of those games being an 11-0 affair that was cut short to five innings. Texas has nine players on the team with higher than a 1.00 OPS.
e. I'm really looking forward to @ZachattheDisch's Youtube show with Schloss this week. Lots of good baseball to discuss from the weekend.
No. 8 – BUY or SELL …
(Sell) 80% of resourcing sounds like a really high number. I would need to see a financial breakdown of costs before really having a firm opinion on this, but I'm more in line with a 40-60/50-50 type time/capital investment.
(Buy) 5.2+ yards per carry might be the best on the roster, so if you're giving me that ... I'll take it.
(Sell) Just a piece of advice...
(Sell) Texas isn't signing three offensive linemen in the Portal.
(Sell) Final Four?
(Sell) It's more probable than not that he is.
(Buy) You busted us. I should have highlighted it more.
Rivals recruiting scoop: Oklahoma, Texas, SMU trending up
Latest recruiting intel out of UA Next Dallas camp inside
(Buy) Yes. Sleep easy.
(Sell) I got that assignment.
(Sell) The personnel isn't as good in 2025 than in 2024 at this point, either in totality along the defensive line or the offense as a whole.
(Buy) Easily IMO.
(Sell) CWS seems like a big ask at this point. The other two should happen.
(Sell/Sell/Sell) I'm going with the rare triple sell.
a. It didn't rank in my top five, even if we're talking from an artistic/cultural execution, I'm willing to have that conversation. I thought it was definitely the purest hip-hop set anyone has ever given at a halftime show.
b. It's basically Orangebloods law that the board hate every halftime show. Every. Single. One.
c. I did a Kendrick list in the summer.
(Sell) Not really.
(Sell) That sounds like maybe one too many.
(Sell) Sark is busy. I think that book has been closed.
No. 9 – Scattershooting all over the place …
... It's just bananas to think that from 1992-2022, the Green Bay Packers only had Brett Favre and Aaron Rodgers playing quarterback for them.
... Kelvin Sampson is just a better basketball coach than I thought he was when he was at Oklahoma and what he's built at Houston is nothing short of amazing.
... Holy cow, UConn! I don't even know what to say about a 29-point beatdown of South Carolina in their crib.
... I feel so disconnected from the NBA right now. All it took was for the Sixers to tank a season and my interest level has died.
... Consider me intrigued by the 4 Nations Face-Off.
... I'm not buying Jannik Sinner's story. I don't really care, but the ol' "my massage therapist cut a finger, used an illegal substance and then uses the illegal substance on me" alibi isn't working for me.
... I had no idea that the Daytona 500 was taking place on Sunday until 1:57 pm today. Not great for the sport.
... Premier League Musings: 13 more games. Just 9 more wins needed. Just keep grinding, Reds. Just go away, Arsenal, just go away. Man City is getting good again... maybe really good... right before we go there next week. That's bs. It's hard not to think that we're all going to hate that we let Omar Marmoush go to City. The battle for the top 4-5 race is getting better and better by the week, I keep think Forest will let go of their lead, but they just keep hanging around. Bournemouth must be a fun team to root for. Nice job, Spurs.
... How has Wildcats now stood the test of time as one of our great sports movies?
... Someone tell me that I should be watching Severance.
No. 10 – The List: Oscars Updates
14 days until the big night and it's starting to look like Anora is the favorite (-250) to win Best Picture over The Brutalist (+300).
After finishing Wicked this weekend (not sure I totally understand the big fuss), I'm down to needing to see 4 movies among the major nominations: A Complete Unknown, I’m Still Here, Nickel Boys and Sing Sing.
By my count I have seen 26 of the 35 major nominations.
Let's get to the updated rankings...
Best Picture
1. Dune Part II
2. Anora
3. The Brutalist
4. Conclave
5. Wicked
6. Emilia Perez
7. The Substance
Best Actor
1. Ralph Fiennes (Conclave)
2. Adrien Brody (The Brutalist)
3. Sebastian Stan (The Apprentice)
Still need to see: Timothee Chalamet (A Complete Unknown) and Colman Domingo (Sing Sing)
Best Actress
1. Mikey Madison (Anora)
2. Cynthia Erivo (Wicked)
3. Karla Sofia Gascon (Emilia Perez)
4. Demi Moore (The Substance)
Still need to see: Fernanda Torres (I’m Still Here)
Best Supporting Actor
1. Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice)
2. Kieran Culkin (A Real Man)
3. Guy Pearce (The Brutalist)
4. Yura Borisov (Anora)
Still need to see: Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown)
Best Supporting Actress
1. Zoe Saldana (Emilia Perez)
2. Ariana Grande (Wicked)
3. Felicity Jones (The Brutalist)
4. Isabella Rossellini (Conclave)
Still need to see: Monica Barbaro (A Complete Unknown)
Best Director
1. Sean Baker (Anora)
2. Brady Corbet (The Brutalist)
3. Jacques Audiard (Emilia Perez)
4. Coralie Fargeat (The Substance)
Still need to see: James Mangold (A Complete Unknown)
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