Ketch's 10 Thoughts From the Weekend (Permission to dream big?)

Texaswins54

Well-Known Member
Gold Member
Aug 7, 2016
3,215
4,122
113
@Ketchum

I don’t believe - I just think anything less and Herman isn’t the guy

if he can’t build a team in 4 years we don’t need to see more
I tend to believe, but fully agree that this year is it or he definitely not the guy. I hope he is. No one knows.
Saban was mediocre shit at Toledo Michigan State and now some people think he is the GOAT. You don’t know until it happens sometimes. [Saban needed a stacked deck from cheating boosters to win. That is just fact].
 

OkayCoolFU

Well-Known Member
Gold Member
May 15, 2019
132
130
43
Austin, TX
@Ketchum - Who are the 3 losses? Ok State , maybe, maybe OU ( doubt it without something close to 6-7 starters out ) so who is the other possible one?
9-1 is the low.
 

Ketchum

Resident Blockhead
Staff
May 29, 2001
219,073
187,562
113
I’m just going to disagree on 45 tds. I think it is in realm of possibilities that Yurcich makes a huge difference on offense and we start throwing up Oklahoma and Oklahoma State offensive numbers.
You think Sam averages 4.5 touchdowns per game?

Vince didn't even do that.
 

Ketchum

Resident Blockhead
Staff
May 29, 2001
219,073
187,562
113
[QUOTE="longhorn73, post: 14452864, member: 14436"
You can look at the past 10 years and all I see is old Mack and terrible Charlie.[/QUOTE]
This is Tom Herman's fourth year...
 
  • Like
Reactions: DrewH14

Mike.Tip

Well-Known Member
Gold Member
Nov 17, 2008
1,335
1,526
113
I’m just going to disagree on 45 tds. I think it is in realm of possibilities that Yurcich makes a huge difference on offense and we start throwing up Oklahoma and Oklahoma State offensive numbers.
Staying healthy enough to start and finish the 10 games and average 4 1/2 TDs per? With the questions on the OL and the uncertainty of how Covid will impact the line up and schedule I would take almost any bet I could make against us scoring 45 passing TDs. I think the offense will be good but if we pass for 4.5 TDs per game the RB recruiting will likely dry up IMO. In my experience, that would mean the running game is pretty ineffective or we were behind in a lot of games or both.
 

longhorn73

Well-Known Member
Gold Member
May 23, 2008
8,068
1,862
113
[QUOTE="longhorn73, post: 14452864, member: 14436"
You can look at the past 10 years and all I see is old Mack and terrible Charlie.
This is Tom Herman's fourth year...[/QUOTE]
And it’s not complete so let’s not put him in the grave just yet. That’s all I’m saying.
 
  • Like
Reactions: pcarroll83

TMarsh14

Well-Known Member
Gold Member
Aug 1, 2003
246
166
43
Plano



Knock on wood, we're a mere five days and change until the 2020 Texas football team kicks off its season and I'm going to make a confession...

I don't know what to tell you.

As the sand has passed through the hour glass in recent weeks, I'm intrigued by the reality that I find myself so unsure about the 2020 Texas Longhorns, while so many others seem to certain about the upcoming season.

"7-3 would be disaster!"

"8-2 is the minimum bar!"

"We should win every game."

I see the constant stream of confidence and I wonder if we're all watching the same football program.

From my vantage point, there are two things that I'm confident that I know about this year's Longhorns:

a. The program has been stuck in manure for the last decade and is literally coming off a 7-5 season that led to the removal of 70-percent of Tom Herman's coaching staff.

b. I don't have a great feeling for what to expect.

That's it. That's my list.

I suppose I know a few more things. I know Teras lost four Big 12 games in 2019, TCU drop-kicked the Longhorns upside the head for the fifth time in six years and Baylor won by two touchdowns and led 21-3 going into the fourth quarter. Oh, and Kansas nearly beat Texas at DKR.

Yeah yeah, yeah... Texas hung with LSU and Oklahoma for four quarters if you're into moral victories defining your hope. The Longhorns also beat the hell out of Utah so bad in the bowl game that it became impossible to not wonder if Herman should fire a coach every week.

The reason I'm beyond the point of exasperation is that we've seen Texas flash over the course of the last decade, and I have no doubt they'll flash again at various points in 2020.

Yet, this has been a program that has taken two steps forward and 2.5 steps back for pretty much an entire decade and while everyone makes grand predictions about the upcoming season, all I want to know is this...

What the hell have you guys seen that makes you believe this season is the moment when Texas football draws a line in the sand and declares, "I'm mad as hell and I'm not going to take it any more!"

Believe me, I want to believe. I'm like a 10-year old kid wanting to believe in Santa, that's how bad I want to believe. In case you haven't noticed, we're in a pandemic and a bad-ass Texas football team would be one hell of a good thing for business, so when I tell you that I want to believe, know that with every piece of my soul I'd wish Texas to a 10-0 season and into the playoff if I could.

But, I'm the guy that gave you permission to dream big in 2016. Remember that? How'd that go?

No, the truth of the matter is that we've seen one okey-doke after another starting with the 2010 season and I've jumped on that hook, line and sinker enough times that I'm going to wait until I see that worm talking to a family member before I go for a bite again without caution.

What I worry about with this team is that it's been sucked down into being average for so long that it truly doesn't know how to get out of it. It's a cycle that plagued the Longhorns from the mid-80s through the early portion of Mack Brown's tenure. Mediocrity has become muscle-memory around this program. Does it have the steel that a guy like Vince Young gave it to pull itself out of the Oklahoma domination 15 years ago? Is that who Sam is?

Until I see a weekly level of anger and unbreakable resolution from the boys in burnt orange, you'll forgive me if I don't see 7-3 as unrealistic when it represents more than this program has regularly accomplished since Charlie Sheen was the highest-paid actor on television.

Yeah, man. It's been that long.

No. 2 - Falling off the deep end ...

If you missed it on Friday, I took the first step towards the deep end of the pool when I released the first stream of data related to the historical output of the state's top-ranked offensive linemen in the Rivals.com rankings from 2002-2015.

Basically, the data confirmed what you already likely knew, which is the Lone Star State and (specifically) the Texas program perform well-below the national norms.

But, how much under the national norms?

That question steered me into some deep waters this weekend, as I set out to provide context to the UT offensive line development problem by being able to directly inspect it with the proper amount of context.

So, I not only researched the state of Texas, but I also specifically broke down the numbers in California and Florida. When that felt like it wasn't enough, I charted the success rates of each area of the country. Finally, I narrowed my focus to schools like Alabama, Ohio State and Oklahoma.

By the time I was done with the research this weekend, I had reviewed the careers of more than 600 of the highest ranked offensive linemen in the country among the high school ranks, including every four- or five-star line prospect from 2002-2015.

Before I take you head-first into the data, I want to explain why I'm using the NFL drafted data points for emphasis.

1. None of this is subjective. In terms of compiling data, it's either a yes or no. There's no debate. The system is the purest means of evaluating the development of talent at the end of each player's cycle.

2. While there are occasional exceptions to the rule, this method of measurement leaves out very few top-level college players, which means that it ends up providing data for us that is generally strong enough to not be impacted drastically with a smattering anomalies.

3. This is not the end-all of useful data, but what it does allow for us to do to is stick an actual numerical value on recruiting rankings and their individual worth.

I'm all ears if anyone has any better ideas.

No. 3 - The Longhorns vs. the national numbers ...

From 2002-15, here's a look at the performance breakdown of each of the top four rankings tiers in the Rivals.com rankings system with regards to players being drafted in the NFL.

* 46.3% (25 of 54) of five-star offensive line prospects were drafted by NFL teams:
* 34.2% (28 of 82) of high-four star offensive line prospects were drafted by NFL teams
* 23.0% (26 of 113) of mid-four star offensive line prospects were drafted by NFL teams
* 14.7% (50 of 341) of low four-star offensive line prospects were drafted by NFL teams.

From 2002-15, here's a look at the performance breakdown of each of the top four rankings tiers in the Rivals.com rankings system with regards to players from the state of Texas being drafted in the NFL.

* 22.2% (2 of 9) of five-star offensive line prospects were drafted by NFL teams:
* 35.7% (5 of 14) of high-four star offensive line prospects were drafted by NFL teams
* 6.7% (1 of 15) of mid-four star offensive line prospects were drafted by NFL teams
* 21.1% (8 of 38) of low four-star offensive line prospects were drafted by NFL teams.

From 2002-15, here's a look at the performance breakdown of each of the top four rankings tiers in the Rivals.com rankings system with regards to Longhorns from the state of Texas being drafted in the NFL.

* 33.3% (1 of 3) of five-star offensive line prospects were drafted by NFL teams:
* 14.3% (1 of 7) of high-four star offensive line prospects were drafted by NFL teams
* 0.0% (0 of 6) of mid-four star offensive line prospects were drafted by NFL teams
* 8.3% (1 of 12) of low four-star offensive line prospects were drafted by NFL teams.

What's interesting about the data as it relates to the state of Texas is how much the numbers in prove in a couple of areas when you pull the Longhorns out of the development equation.

* 57.1% (4 of 7) of high-four star offensive line prospects were drafted by NFL teams
* 11.1% (1 of 9) of mid-four star offensive line prospects were drafted by NFL teams
* 26.9% (7 of 26) of low four-star offensive line prospects were drafted by NFL teams.

No. 4 - Comparing Texas vs. other programs ...

Here's the percentages of drafted players including all five- and four-star prospects from 2002-2015:

Florida 42.1% (8 of 19)
Alabama 37.5% (9 of 24)
Miami 33.3% (6 of 18)
Georgia 31.3% (5 of 16)
Ohio State 30.4% (7 of 23)
USC 29.6% (8 of 27)
Oklahoma 26.3% (5 of 19)
Auburn 25% (6 of 24)
Michigan 19.2% (5 of 26)
LSU 15.4% (4 of 26)
Texas 10.7% (3 of 28)

Here's the percentages of drafted players including all five- and high four-star prospects from 2002-2015:

Auburn 83.3% (5 of 6)
Alabama 60.0% (6 of 10)
Miami 50.0% (2 of 4)
USC 40.0% (6 of 15)
Georgia 40.0% (2 of 5)
Florida 37.5% (3 of 8)
Ohio State 33.3% (3 of 9)
LSU 25.0% (1 of 4)
Texas 20.0% (2 of 10)
Michigan 14.3% (1 of 7)
Oklahoma 0.0% (0 of 2)

Here's the percentages of drafted players including all mid- and low four-star prospects from 2002-2015:

Florida 45.5% (5 of 11)
Oklahoma 29.4% (5 of 17)
Miami 28.9% (4 of 14)
Ohio State 28.6% (4 of 14)
Georgia 25.0% (3 of 12)
Alabama 21.4% (3 of 14)
Michigan 21.1% (4 of 19)
USC 16.7% (2 of 12)
LSU 13.6% (3 of 22)
Auburn 5.6% (1 of 18)
Texas 5.6% (1 of 18)

A couple of notes worth mentioning...

* Five of the 6 five-stars Alabama has recruited from 2002-2015 have been drafted. Four of the six have been first round picks and the other was selected in the second round.

* Not to be completely outdone, Auburn has had 5 of the 6 highest-rated prospects in program history from 2002-2015 drafted by NFL teams.

* Oklahoma is 0 for 4 with the four-highest rated linemen in program history from 2002-2015, but have made some money in that low four-star tier. In fact, Oklahoma developed more low-four-star linemen in its 2015 recruiting class into drafted players than Texas had in all of those years.

* No program in the country has signed more five and four star high school offensive line prospects between 2002-2015 than Texas (28).

No. 5 - The regions with the most talent ...

This might be the most interesting section of data for my money.

In hopes of determining which areas of the country are developing the best talent, I did breakdowns on the following states/regions of the country.

* Mid-Atlantic (Virginia, Maryland, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, New York, New Jersey, Delaware, Connecticut, Vermont, Maine, New Hampshire, Rhode Island, Washington DC and West Virgnia

* Midwest (Ohio, Michigan, Illinois, Indiana, Wisconsin, Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, North Dakota and South Dakota

* Southeast (Georgia, Florida, Alabama, Louisiana, Mississippi, South Carolina, Kentucky and Tennessee)

* West (California, Oregon,. Washington, New Mexico, Colorado, Utah, Arizona, Montana, Wyoming, Idaho, Nevada and Alaska)

Here's the percentages of drafted players including all five-star prospects from 2002-2015:

West 66.7% (8 of 12)
Southeast 50.0% (7 of 14)
Mid-Atlantic 50% (6 of 12)
Midwest 28.6% (2 of 7)
Texas 22.2 (2 of 9)

Here's the percentages of drafted players including all high four-star prospects from 2002-2015:

West 45.5% (5 of 11)
Texas 35.7% (5 of 14)
Mid-Atlantic 35% (7 of 20)
Southeast 25.0% (4 of 16)
Midwest 21.4% (3 of 14)

Here's the percentages of drafted players including all mid four-star prospects from 2002-2015:

Mid-Atlantic 38.9% (7 of 18)
Southeast 33.3% (13 of 39)
Midwest 20.0% (3 of 15)
'West 8.3% (2 of 24)
Texas 6.7% (1 of 15)

Here's the percentages of drafted players including all low four-star prospects from 2002-2015:

Midwest 17.3% (9 of 52)
Texas 16.2% (6 of 37)
'West 13.9% (10 of 72)
Southeast 13.6% (14 of 103)
Mid-Atlantic 13.4% (9 of 67)

So, what would be my 3-step plan to rebuilding the planning along the offensive line recruiting if I was basing it on this data.

1. Heavily target the elite offensive line talent out West.
2. Emphasize building some in-roads into a very talented and insanely underrated Mid-Atlantic region.
3. Once you get beyond, the elite of the elite prospects in the West and Mid-Atlantic, there's not much reason to leave the state of Texas for low-four star talent and below. There's no real regional advantage to be found the deeper you go into the talent pool.

No. 6 - Scattershooting on Longhorns football ...

... Does the entire season come down to how well Denzel Okafor and Christian Jones come together on the right side of the offensive line? That might be a little much, but there's no question that one of the subplots to this season is just how well that side of the line can play.

... The closer the season gets, the more I'm starting to think Roschon Johnson has been marginalized because of the looming Bijan Robinson shadow, but don't be shocked if he ends up building off of last season's start at running back with a year that takes a back seat to few on this roster.

... Brennan Eagles showing up needing to be pushed into game shape is beyond disappointment. Come on, Brennan!

... I sure would like to have heard Jordan Whittington's name a little more in camp.

... I'm not sure Whittington really pushed Jake Smith in camp. Buy all the Jake Smith stock you can.

... Where's the pass rush coming from outside of Joseph Ossai? I don't know.

... I think Alfred Collins might be starting by the Oklahoma game.

No. 7 – BUY or SELL …



(Sell) I need to see it to believe it.


(Sell) It's the first game. I wouldn't be surprised if Texas is in the 30s and UTEP scores a couple of touchdowns. Texas just needs to get the game played, win and show some improvement.


(Sell)


(Sell) I'm just not sure Texas is going to have a chance to break in Card this year unless there's an injury.


(Buy) If you set it at 3.5, I might take the under, though.


(Sell) I think there's a zero-percent chance Sam accounts for 45+ touchdowns in 10 games.


(Buy) I bet it's better than people think. Gonna be a lot of people dying to scream after the job 2020 has done on us.


(Sell) I need to see it to believe it. It just feels like hype right now.


(Sell) At least one game gets cancelled or postponed. Just a guess.


(Sell) Not being last might as well be the same as being first for Bob.


(Sell) I've watched a lot of hoops this week.


(Sell) I have to believe Rattler finishes as a Top 2 quarterback.


(Sell) It's not impossible, but I'll say they get two in as of right now.

No. 8 - Scattershooting on the world of sports ...

... I weirdly enjoyed the SMU/Texas State game. I can't explain why other than to say... FOOTBALL!

... Bring on mighty undefeated UTEP! Seriously, having played a game is a nice little advantage for UTEP going into this game.

... BYU/Navy has a chance to be a fun little college football game on Monday.

... My fantasy draft is tomorrow and I don't have any idea what I plan to do with the 8th pick.

... Isn't Brandon Carr a little old to be on the Dallas practice squad? I guess not.

... DeShaun Watson's contract was just a not nail in the coffin in the idea that Dallas won't eventually pay Dak prescott every dime he wants.

... Mitch Trubisky is the starting quarterback in Chicago. Have fun, Bears fans.

... Of course, that happened to Novak Djokovic. Good grief.

... I might be the only person who believes this, but Leo Messi's problems are all Leo Messi's fault. When you're worth over 100 million per year as a brand and you don't have elite lawyers advising you, any contract issue is one person and one person's fault only.

... If Gini Wijnaldum has played his last game for Liverpool, he'll leave as a legend of the club and a key piece of everything the club has accomplished over the last few seasons. Consider me sad, as he'll be the first true critical piece of the last few seasons to move on if he heads to Barcelona. Excuse me while I tear up.

No. 9 - The List: Best Yacht Rock Songs ...

40 years ago this week, Christopher Cross topped the Billboard rankings with the iconic "Sailing".

With that in. mind, I give you my Top 10 Yacht Rock songs of all-time.

10. Baby Come Back (Player)
9. How Much I Feel (Ambrosia)
8. Arthur's Theme (Christopher Cross)
7. What a Fool Believes (Doobie Brothers)
6. This Is It (Kenny Loggins)
5. Rosanna (Toto)
4. Hey Nineteen (Steely Dan)
3. Africa (Toto)
2. Waiting for a Girl Like You (Foreigner)
1. Saling (Christopher Cross)

No.10 - And finally...

7-3.

That's my season prediction.
7-3 is complete, utter failure.
 

cordpetee

Alive and well
Gold Member
Mar 15, 2009
1,903
1,085
113
Damn Ketchum

let’s go to Pluckers and I will buy the sandwich you like and talk you off the ledge
 

Cdun

Well well well, How the turntables...
Gold Member
Nov 19, 2007
46,772
62,880
113
It says a lot about the mindset of a fan base when a 7-3 record is considered pessimistic when the program hasn't won at a .700 clip in the last decade.
We also haven't had a 4th year starting QB, with pre-season award hype, and a schedule this incredibly easy.

Nothing close.
 
  • Like
Reactions: RAISTLIN

Manolo

Well-Known Member
Gold Member
Dec 24, 2002
4,611
5,443
113
So you think Herman isn't the guy. Got it.
.
you haven't had to read too far between the lines the last 6-9 months to know that @Ketchum isn't a huge believer in anything about the current head coach. He's far from alone on that.
 

Ketchum

Resident Blockhead
Staff
May 29, 2001
219,073
187,562
113
Texas scoring in the 30's is ABSOLUTELY reason to start freaking out.

If you think Texas scores in the 30's against UTEP, then you think Texas goes 6-4 or 7-3 AT BEST.
I think it's a team coming off an inconsistent year and playing in it's first game.

I'm thinking 37-45.
 

Schaffer2019

Well-Known Member
Gold Member
Sep 24, 2019
647
1,127
93
Ketch, I get why you are so pessimistic.
Texas fans are like beaten down puppies at this stage.
But, I believe, that COACHING matters.
And I also believe that this year, after a decade, we finally have it.
You’ll see....
9-1 at least!
 

Ketchum

Resident Blockhead
Staff
May 29, 2001
219,073
187,562
113
I hope you are wrong about 7-3. I think injuries and a lack of creativity in scheming around the injuries were the biggest factors in last seasons failures. On both sides of the ball, we didn't have healthy players to run the schemes and the coaches were either unable or unwilling to make adjustments.
This team has very little depth as it currently stands.
 

Texaswins54

Well-Known Member
Gold Member
Aug 7, 2016
3,215
4,122
113
Someone is off his meds....

Negative folks never change their stripes.

You can look at the past 10 years and all I see is old Mack and terrible Charlie. I get why you are negative. Charlie was the worst coach in the history of the program. He destroyed a dying program and buried it.

This will be a good year.

If you want to keep on sailing with that ship, then go for it.

That’s a bad title to the thread imho. There are no hopes or dreams present in what you wrote.
I completely agree. 7-3 is a huge failure and Herman should be fired.
 
  • Like
Reactions: tyhorn and Cdun

Ketchum

Resident Blockhead
Staff
May 29, 2001
219,073
187,562
113
So you think Herman isn't the guy. Got it.

There's no way to predict a 7-3 season and think that Herman just needs a little more help to get him over the hump, even though we have THIS schedule, and a 4 year starter at QB with JRs all over the defense.
There's virtually zero known proof to suggest that this team deserves the benefit of the doubt just because.

There are questions everywhere.
 
  • Like
Reactions: rlstep

curtis7mills

Well-Known Member
Gold Member
Jan 10, 2012
1,335
1,222
113
Well 7-3 should be enough to get Urban here. Then, they will not be reshuffling the chairs on the Titanic anymore. You immediately have everyone’s attention.
 
  • Like
Reactions: TheEyesAreUponYou

Texaswins54

Well-Known Member
Gold Member
Aug 7, 2016
3,215
4,122
113
There's virtually zero known proof to suggest that this team deserves the benefit of the doubt just because.

There are questions everywhere.
Do you follow this team? Do you know anything about football? Seriously.
 

Ketchum

Resident Blockhead
Staff
May 29, 2001
219,073
187,562
113
But you are sure Brennan Eagles is going to be drafted by an NFL team in the spring?
Yes. But not nearly as high in the draft as he should if he doesn't get his shit together.

Nothing about his current profile screams "returning for his senior season".
 

Ketchum

Resident Blockhead
Staff
May 29, 2001
219,073
187,562
113
@Ketchum - Who are the 3 losses? Ok State , maybe, maybe OU ( doubt it without something close to 6-7 starters out ) so who is the other possible one?
9-1 is the low.
I think you're overestimating an unworthy of your benefit of the doubt Texas and underestimating a conference full of teams that have proven it can hang or beat Texas.
 

Ketchum

Resident Blockhead
Staff
May 29, 2001
219,073
187,562
113
Staying healthy enough to start and finish the 10 games and average 4 1/2 TDs per? With the questions on the OL and the uncertainty of how Covid will impact the line up and schedule I would take almost any bet I could make against us scoring 45 passing TDs. I think the offense will be good but if we pass for 4.5 TDs per game the RB recruiting will likely dry up IMO. In my experience, that would mean the running game is pretty ineffective or we were behind in a lot of games or both.
The math just doesn't make sense and that is not a poor reflection on Sam.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Mike.Tip

Ketchum

Resident Blockhead
Staff
May 29, 2001
219,073
187,562
113
This is Tom Herman's fourth year...
And it’s not complete so let’s not put him in the grave just yet. That’s all I’m saying.[/QUOTE]
I'm certainly not putting him in his grave. You're inventing things that don't exist in the name of somehow calling me overly negative.