With 25-percent of the season in the books, a 1-2 record to show for it and an entire Big 12 schedule in front of them, one of the big questions about this team deals with expectations.
For instance, what the hell should they be at this point?
When asked about this very question, Tom Herman mentioned that the only team goal he set for his group this season was to emerge as a factor in the Big 12 championship race in the month of November.
To get there, you'd have to think a 7-2 conference record is what it would take to get into a possible Big 12 Championship game as the No.2 team, although if the league beats up each other in round-robin fashion, I suppose as 6-3 record could make things interesting. More than likely, it's going to take a 7-2 mark, which means the team would finish with a respectable 8-4 record through games if they can pull it off.
So, how do they pull it off?
The best way to do so might be to pull a page out of the Mack Brown playbook and turn the final nine games into three mini-schedules.
Follow me here.
Season No.1 - The next two
First things, first, Texas needs to take care of business in Ames this week. Period. The team that nearly beat USC on the road has to take the next step forward by finding a way to get its first road win under its belt.
That needs to be followed by a win against a good, but very beatable Kansas State team.
That gets the team above .500 with a 3-2 overall record and a 2-0 start in Big 12 play.
Season No.2 - The Oklahoma games
One way or another, Texas has to split this pair of games, with the most obvious possibility being when the Cowboys comes to Austin the week after the Red River Shootout.
This keeps the Longhorns above .500 with a 4-3 overall record and a 3-1 start in Big 12 play.
We can debate whether Texas reaching this stage is likely, but it is doable on paper.
Season No.3 - The Final Five
at. Baylor
at TCU
vs. Kansas
at West Virginia
vs. Texas Tech
It's going to take four out of five in this stretch. At first glance, it comes down to two of the three final road games. If Texas can't get a split here between TCU and West Virginia, we're talking about a 7-5 season (assuming it can pull of the mission in the first two sections of seasons) if it sweeps the home slate.
This Texas team can pull this off, but can has never really been the issue. It's the doing part that this program struggles with.
I thought almost the entire off-season that 7.5 wins was the correct over/under for this team and I'm right back there again after spreading out the rest of the schedule.
My confirmation bias tells me 8-4. My conscious tells me 7-5. My jadedness tells me 6-6.
No. 2 – The elephant in the room going into this week ...
This is a big week for Shane Buechele.
After sitting out the last two games with a shoulder injury, Buechele comes back to the stable with the team facing a critical road game that looks all kinds of tricky from the outside looking in.
One of the areas where Buechele struggled in as a true freshman was playing well on the road and he's in the line-up right now because his development in areas exactly like this are supposed to be ahead of Sam Ehlinger.
This season hangs in the balance of this belief. It has to show up in Ames.
Buechele needs to play like a national Top 25-30 passer on Thursday night. If that happens, he'll solidify his position as the deserved starterof this team. If it doesn't happen, well... that would be very problematic.
No. 3 - No easy task for Todd Orlando...
In three games this season, the Iowa State offense has scored 42, 41 and 42 points, with 41 of those coming against the same Iowa defense that held Penn State in check for a lot of Saturday night.
The Cyclones come into the game with the nation's No.18 passing game (311 yards per game), 16th in scoring offense (41.3 ppg), 24th in red-zone offense (.929) and 30th in team passing efficiency (153.86).
I can't stress this enough three days before the game... Texas better come to Ames ready for a dog-fight.
As much as I was impressed by the Texas defense against USC, I'm expecting a bit of a score-fest.
No. 4 – Let's go on the record right now...
How many points do you think it will take to win on Thursday night?
I'm thinking 30+.
No. 5 – Buy or Sell …
BUY or SELL: Shane starts more games than Sam the rest of this season?
(Buy) The coaches don't want to have to play the freshman if they don't have to. Tom Herman wants to believe in Shane in 2017. If this team loses three of its next four, all bets are off.
BUY or SELL: Tom Herman takes over coordination of the offense at some point this season?
(Sell) Herman and Beck are boys. He's not going to throw him under the bus.
BUY or SELL: Texas has a non offensive TD against Iowa State?
(Sell) On one hand, this team seems to do a lot of non-offensive touchdowns these days. On the other hand, at some point that well will have to start to dry out a little. You just can't plan on those.
BUY or SELL: Texas made a huge mistake by hiring Charlie Strong when they could of had the well organized, attention-to-detail James Franklin?
(Buy) That dude has proven himself to be a coaching bad-ass.
BUY or SELL: Offensive tackle Connor Williams will never see the field again as a Longhorn?
(Sell) I think he's going to come back.
BUY or SELL: Because of injuries to OL and TE positions, the offense goes more "spread" to help facilitate the running game and tempo?
(Buy) This is a pass-first football team and I don't see that changing all season.
BUY or SELL: Chris Del Conte becomes the AD at UT in 2017-18?
(Buy) He has support in important places. There's a feeling out there that he'll accept the job if offered something he can't refuse. I'll throw my money there while the Vegas odds are still good.
No. 6 – About TCU ...
Man, Gary Patterson is good.
If you've been on the site for any length of time, you know I have a hell of a lot of respect for the TCU coach. When it comes to spotting raw talent and developing it, Patterson has few peers in college football. In a way, he's kind of emerged as the Bill Snyder of the state of Texas, a guy that has turned into a lifer at winning in a place that was once pretty much left for dead.
Considering where TCU was a decade ago from a conference and revenue standpoint, you basically can't say enough about the job he's done.
If we've learned anything in the last couple of years since the Horned Frogs joined the Big 12, it's that they might not be able to hang at the top every year, but if you give Patterson a year or two to rebuild his house, he'll produce a team capable of winning a title.
What happened at Stillwater wasn't an accident. TCU was better than Oklahoma State in every moment of that game and in every way it could be better.
*Tipping my writing camp to Patterson*
No. 7 – If I had a vote that counts ...
1. Alabama
2. Clemson
3. Oklahoma
4. TCU
5. Penn State
6. Michigan
7. Washington
8. USC
9. Georgia
10. Wisconsin
No. 8 – Hot damn, Houston...
I don't care that they got Tom Brady'd by Tom Brady on Sunday afternoon, dropping to 1-2.
It happens.
What I do care about is that DeShaun Watson went toe to toe with Brady in Brady's crib in his second career start.
That does not happen, at least not often.
The Texans didn't win the game, but fellas, this is what winning the long-term war looks like. For so long, Texans fans have been frustrated with me because frankly I've been bored with following their team as an outside, objective observer.
Nothing about Watson was boring on Sunday. In fact, he was so good that I flipped it off of the Red Zone channel when the Texans had the ball because he was must-see-TV.
Texans fans, congrats. Sunday was a landmark moment for this franchise in my mind, you've got your guy.
No. 9 – Eternal Randomness of the Spotty Sports Mind …
... I have to be honest, I watched the Oklahoma/Baylor game and I'm still not quite sure what to make of it 24 hours later. I do know that Baker Mayfield has emerged into one hell of a player. Greatest OU quarterback of all-time? It's close. Eventually, the Sam Bradford folks might have to come around.
... Vanderbilt running it's mouth leading up to playing Alabama this week reminded me of Stan Thomas' Huntsville State Prison comments before the 1991 Cotton Bowl. Same result, basically... without the 15 unsportsmanlike conduct penalties.
... Saquon Barkley... great name... better player.
... Hug your friends that might be Iowa supporters today. That was a haunting loss.
... Hug your friends that might be Kentucky supporters today. That was a haunting loss.
... Hug your friends that might be Detroit Lions supporters today. That was a haunting loss.
... The New Orleans Saints saved its season on the road at Carolina. Gut-check win.
... Last year, it seemed like every time I played Jay Ajayi in fantasy, he dropped 200 yards and a bazillion touchdowns on me. On Sunday, I caught him on a 3.5 points day. I'm kind of at a loss, it was that unexpected.
... Demarco Murray is still really, really good. Seattle? Yeah, not so much.
... The Cowboys should have traded for Brandin Cooks.
... It doesn't matter what happens to Jamaal Charles' body, he comes back looking like nothing every happened every time. He's just special.
... lulz @ Ravens.
... Major League Baseball isn't exactly sprinting towards the finish, is it?
... All of the big boys were big boys this weekend in the EPL. There's a weird little bit of pressure on Arsenal on Monday to not give three points to the entire field for the weekend.
... Harry Kane is sooooo good.
... What the hell has happened to FC Dallas?
No. 10 – And finally …
Sean Adams' celebration of a memorial was quite beautiful. I think he would have loved it.
Rest in peace, my friend.
For instance, what the hell should they be at this point?
When asked about this very question, Tom Herman mentioned that the only team goal he set for his group this season was to emerge as a factor in the Big 12 championship race in the month of November.
To get there, you'd have to think a 7-2 conference record is what it would take to get into a possible Big 12 Championship game as the No.2 team, although if the league beats up each other in round-robin fashion, I suppose as 6-3 record could make things interesting. More than likely, it's going to take a 7-2 mark, which means the team would finish with a respectable 8-4 record through games if they can pull it off.
So, how do they pull it off?
The best way to do so might be to pull a page out of the Mack Brown playbook and turn the final nine games into three mini-schedules.
Follow me here.
Season No.1 - The next two
First things, first, Texas needs to take care of business in Ames this week. Period. The team that nearly beat USC on the road has to take the next step forward by finding a way to get its first road win under its belt.
That needs to be followed by a win against a good, but very beatable Kansas State team.
That gets the team above .500 with a 3-2 overall record and a 2-0 start in Big 12 play.
Season No.2 - The Oklahoma games
One way or another, Texas has to split this pair of games, with the most obvious possibility being when the Cowboys comes to Austin the week after the Red River Shootout.
This keeps the Longhorns above .500 with a 4-3 overall record and a 3-1 start in Big 12 play.
We can debate whether Texas reaching this stage is likely, but it is doable on paper.
Season No.3 - The Final Five
at. Baylor
at TCU
vs. Kansas
at West Virginia
vs. Texas Tech
It's going to take four out of five in this stretch. At first glance, it comes down to two of the three final road games. If Texas can't get a split here between TCU and West Virginia, we're talking about a 7-5 season (assuming it can pull of the mission in the first two sections of seasons) if it sweeps the home slate.
This Texas team can pull this off, but can has never really been the issue. It's the doing part that this program struggles with.
I thought almost the entire off-season that 7.5 wins was the correct over/under for this team and I'm right back there again after spreading out the rest of the schedule.
My confirmation bias tells me 8-4. My conscious tells me 7-5. My jadedness tells me 6-6.
No. 2 – The elephant in the room going into this week ...
This is a big week for Shane Buechele.
After sitting out the last two games with a shoulder injury, Buechele comes back to the stable with the team facing a critical road game that looks all kinds of tricky from the outside looking in.
One of the areas where Buechele struggled in as a true freshman was playing well on the road and he's in the line-up right now because his development in areas exactly like this are supposed to be ahead of Sam Ehlinger.
This season hangs in the balance of this belief. It has to show up in Ames.
Buechele needs to play like a national Top 25-30 passer on Thursday night. If that happens, he'll solidify his position as the deserved starterof this team. If it doesn't happen, well... that would be very problematic.
No. 3 - No easy task for Todd Orlando...
In three games this season, the Iowa State offense has scored 42, 41 and 42 points, with 41 of those coming against the same Iowa defense that held Penn State in check for a lot of Saturday night.
The Cyclones come into the game with the nation's No.18 passing game (311 yards per game), 16th in scoring offense (41.3 ppg), 24th in red-zone offense (.929) and 30th in team passing efficiency (153.86).
I can't stress this enough three days before the game... Texas better come to Ames ready for a dog-fight.
As much as I was impressed by the Texas defense against USC, I'm expecting a bit of a score-fest.
No. 4 – Let's go on the record right now...
How many points do you think it will take to win on Thursday night?
I'm thinking 30+.
No. 5 – Buy or Sell …
BUY or SELL: Shane starts more games than Sam the rest of this season?
(Buy) The coaches don't want to have to play the freshman if they don't have to. Tom Herman wants to believe in Shane in 2017. If this team loses three of its next four, all bets are off.
BUY or SELL: Tom Herman takes over coordination of the offense at some point this season?
(Sell) Herman and Beck are boys. He's not going to throw him under the bus.
BUY or SELL: Texas has a non offensive TD against Iowa State?
(Sell) On one hand, this team seems to do a lot of non-offensive touchdowns these days. On the other hand, at some point that well will have to start to dry out a little. You just can't plan on those.
BUY or SELL: Texas made a huge mistake by hiring Charlie Strong when they could of had the well organized, attention-to-detail James Franklin?
(Buy) That dude has proven himself to be a coaching bad-ass.
BUY or SELL: Offensive tackle Connor Williams will never see the field again as a Longhorn?
(Sell) I think he's going to come back.
BUY or SELL: Because of injuries to OL and TE positions, the offense goes more "spread" to help facilitate the running game and tempo?
(Buy) This is a pass-first football team and I don't see that changing all season.
BUY or SELL: Chris Del Conte becomes the AD at UT in 2017-18?
(Buy) He has support in important places. There's a feeling out there that he'll accept the job if offered something he can't refuse. I'll throw my money there while the Vegas odds are still good.
No. 6 – About TCU ...
Man, Gary Patterson is good.
If you've been on the site for any length of time, you know I have a hell of a lot of respect for the TCU coach. When it comes to spotting raw talent and developing it, Patterson has few peers in college football. In a way, he's kind of emerged as the Bill Snyder of the state of Texas, a guy that has turned into a lifer at winning in a place that was once pretty much left for dead.
Considering where TCU was a decade ago from a conference and revenue standpoint, you basically can't say enough about the job he's done.
If we've learned anything in the last couple of years since the Horned Frogs joined the Big 12, it's that they might not be able to hang at the top every year, but if you give Patterson a year or two to rebuild his house, he'll produce a team capable of winning a title.
What happened at Stillwater wasn't an accident. TCU was better than Oklahoma State in every moment of that game and in every way it could be better.
*Tipping my writing camp to Patterson*
No. 7 – If I had a vote that counts ...
1. Alabama
2. Clemson
3. Oklahoma
4. TCU
5. Penn State
6. Michigan
7. Washington
8. USC
9. Georgia
10. Wisconsin
No. 8 – Hot damn, Houston...
I don't care that they got Tom Brady'd by Tom Brady on Sunday afternoon, dropping to 1-2.
It happens.
What I do care about is that DeShaun Watson went toe to toe with Brady in Brady's crib in his second career start.
That does not happen, at least not often.
The Texans didn't win the game, but fellas, this is what winning the long-term war looks like. For so long, Texans fans have been frustrated with me because frankly I've been bored with following their team as an outside, objective observer.
Nothing about Watson was boring on Sunday. In fact, he was so good that I flipped it off of the Red Zone channel when the Texans had the ball because he was must-see-TV.
Texans fans, congrats. Sunday was a landmark moment for this franchise in my mind, you've got your guy.
No. 9 – Eternal Randomness of the Spotty Sports Mind …
... I have to be honest, I watched the Oklahoma/Baylor game and I'm still not quite sure what to make of it 24 hours later. I do know that Baker Mayfield has emerged into one hell of a player. Greatest OU quarterback of all-time? It's close. Eventually, the Sam Bradford folks might have to come around.
... Vanderbilt running it's mouth leading up to playing Alabama this week reminded me of Stan Thomas' Huntsville State Prison comments before the 1991 Cotton Bowl. Same result, basically... without the 15 unsportsmanlike conduct penalties.
... Saquon Barkley... great name... better player.
... Hug your friends that might be Iowa supporters today. That was a haunting loss.
... Hug your friends that might be Kentucky supporters today. That was a haunting loss.
... Hug your friends that might be Detroit Lions supporters today. That was a haunting loss.
... The New Orleans Saints saved its season on the road at Carolina. Gut-check win.
... Last year, it seemed like every time I played Jay Ajayi in fantasy, he dropped 200 yards and a bazillion touchdowns on me. On Sunday, I caught him on a 3.5 points day. I'm kind of at a loss, it was that unexpected.
... Demarco Murray is still really, really good. Seattle? Yeah, not so much.
... The Cowboys should have traded for Brandin Cooks.
... It doesn't matter what happens to Jamaal Charles' body, he comes back looking like nothing every happened every time. He's just special.
... lulz @ Ravens.
... Major League Baseball isn't exactly sprinting towards the finish, is it?
... All of the big boys were big boys this weekend in the EPL. There's a weird little bit of pressure on Arsenal on Monday to not give three points to the entire field for the weekend.
... Harry Kane is sooooo good.
... What the hell has happened to FC Dallas?
No. 10 – And finally …
Sean Adams' celebration of a memorial was quite beautiful. I think he would have loved it.
Rest in peace, my friend.
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