Ketch's 10 Thoughts From The Weekend (Sorry about ruining Santa for you...)

[bbussell1]

i feel like i see way too many of these players too lol. i don't recall all the players but jordan hicks comes to mind. he had what felt like 1 good year in college and has been starting in the nfl for quite a while. i could be mistaken though. shit, marcus johnson is still in the NFL! then there's a couple defensive backs still making plays in NFL.

it almost feels like every longhorn in the nfl other than LJH, D'onta, and collin johnson, had mediocre college careers. can't name them all, but maybe it was just cause they were in college during some bad years.

Wasn't going to call out Hicks, but he was near the top of my list. Injuries really short circuited his career at Texas. Again, not hating on the guy for making it in the NFL, but we sure could have used more of what he is bringing to table now when he was at Texas.

 

[4thGenTx]

Wasn't going to call out Hicks, but he was near the top of my list. Injuries really short circuited his career at Texas. Again, not hating on the guy for making it in the NFL, but we sure could have used more of what he is bringing to table now when he was at Texas.

ya it was definitely injuries, but it still feels like almost all current NFL players underperformed in college. like ketch said, it was probably just because texas hasn't been good for 10+ years.

 

[texcoast]

They are outliers.

I don't know how to overcome your confirmation bias on this subject than to simply tell you the data-backed truth.

The very reason I lean on the draft as a datapoint is that it doesn't use personal opinion or let feelings get in the way.

Either it happened or it didn't.

I'm not knocking your analysis. I found it very interesting and worth the read. All I'm saying is that only 5 schools in the entire country had two or more 5-star recruits for the Class of '22. And only A&M and Georgia have more than two. So schools are evidently finding quite a bit of value in their 4-star players. Yes, it's more of a gamble; that goes without saying, but if I'm Sark, I'm still excited when I land a solid 4.

 

[o5prey]

@Ketchum

You know that I love your hit rate analysis - I think about it a LOT over these past several years / and think a ton about how huge a gap the top classes have versus say #5 / which is basically in the same realm as #25 when it comes to talent acquired

I am still thinking deeply on the relative value between a 4 star 20% hit / and a portal player.

A big consideration is the amount of difference in what a hit represents - that I'm still trying to get my head around

Xavier Worthy was in the upper group.... not 5 star and only barely in the Top 70 / just squeaks in / but lets count his hit rate at 25%

When he does hit -> He impacts for 3 years / and the differential he brings to a team is actually (so far based on portal activity) a much bigger impact to a team that what a portal can bring

Now if we start seeing over the next few years actual game changer recruits enter the portal more often than they are now -> this equation may keep shifting

TLDR - I think we aren't using enough spots for portal guys given where are program is now / but I still would caution that it can get overused in the concept of building an entire roster.

 

[jspirohorn]

You've said it alot, but Sark is tied with Ewers. let's just hope we finally hit on a top-tier QB.

I never really thought about it like that but you're right, Sark has basically bet his job on Ewers.

 

[edmondhorn2]

@Ketchum thank you for the clip from the baseball game. As someone who has a special needs sister nearing the end of her life, that has even more meaning for me than usual. My parents and I spent many years at Special Olympics events and the pure joy expressed was always heartwarming to see.

 

[DAMOSS33]

Am I the only one on OB who also has this frustrating category ...

Guys that didn't make that big a difference while at UT, but end up carving out a reasonable career in the NFL. Mind you I'm not upset with the guys - congrats to them for making it in the NFL - but it is hard to watch them make nice plays on Sundays and not think "dang, I wish he had done more of that while at Texas".

I realize injuries and bad usage and coaching by the staff are both big contributors to guys maybe underwhelming a bit at the college level and then performing at the next level. But our poor results of the past dozen years makes this category particularly frustrating for me (probably wouldn't notice if we had been winning).

I don't want to take the time to "name a bunch of guys" and get into any debate about who really fits into this category and who doesn't and why. But I think we all know there are at least a handful of guys for whom this would fit.

I totally agree, just had that thought yesterday.

 

[THE NUTT]

@Ketchum Who do you think plays better at the end of spring? Ewers or Card? Not who will be the starter but who will actually be the better player at that point?

 

[GGFisher]

I'm not knocking your analysis. I found it very interesting and worth the read. All I'm saying is that only 5 schools in the entire country had two or more 5-star recruits for the Class of '22. And only A&M and Georgia have more than two. So schools are evidently finding quite a bit of value in their 4-star players. Yes, it's more of a gamble; that goes without saying, but if I'm Sark, I'm still excited when I land a solid 4.

I agree with you about hope springs eternal with new recruits to the program.

The value of Ketch’s research is that it sets a bar and defines reasonable development in a program. The rough average is 50% 5 stars get NFL drafted and 20% 4 stars get NFL drafted and 15% of high 3 stars get NFL drafted. Basically the NFL draft represents a top 250 player that is draft eligible any particular year.

Based on Texas’ 2022 class ranking plus the previous rankings of the two portal players Texas picked up and add D. Campbell to the class as expected then the baseline number of NFL drafted players Texas added to the program is 4-5. That is the minimum bar that should be reached in this class including the portal signees.

If Texas repeats that the next year then the program should be competing as a top 10-15 team by 2023. That is the minimum bar.

The championship programs like Alabama, Georgia, Clemson, tOSU are signing so many 5 stars every year and hit on and develop enough 4stars they almost have NFL draft talent at every position.

Programs like Texas, USC, Michigan, Florida etc either have to start signing enough 5 stars to compete or start winning the evaluation process and have a bunch of 4 stars hit like X Worthy did.
Texas and Sark have to do a better job of evaluating the 3-4 stars like Baylor and OSU did the last couple years and coach the lesser talent to play like NFL draftable players if Texas is going to compete at a championship level by 2025.

 

[HerkieWalls]

Justice and Death Magnetic should not be ignored.
Battery must be top 10.

The Day that Never Comes is a top 10 for me!

 

[Anwar Richardson]

Any SEC head football coach singing for NIL oversight makes me laugh. Yes, that includes Nick Saban. As if he's gone his entire career without a player or five getting suitcases full of money ...

They love a world where they control everything. NIL is giving players more options and they don't like losing control

 

[Trash Can Bangers]

@Ketchum, B/S - If you were in a "GM" role for the Texas program you would never sign a 3 star unless there were special circumstances (for example: a legacy kid or from a HS pipeline)

 

[txfight]

Records should be calculated on a per/game basis from now on.

But honestly, they are just talking points for sports talk radio shows. Every era is so different making meaningful comparisons is impossible.

Gardner Minshew is probably a better passing quarterback than Johnny Unitas was.
If Reggie Miller played his entire career in an era with analytics, he'd have taken and made at least 20% more three point shots.
Sammy Sosa/Mark McGwire/Barry Bonds probably don't mash HR's in pre-steroidal eras.

 

[carvajah]

Ketch,
I’m aligned with an 8-4 season next year likely representing the ceiling for expectations. But why can a Baylor in year 2 under Aranda have the season they had with less talent? Better yet, what would it take for Texas to have that type of year 2 turnaround under Sark? As we say on OB…it’s mind-bottling.

The 3-4 defense cannot be run well without an exceptional DL and exceptional LBs who are recruited specifically for that defense. We currently do not have that. Trying to put a square peg in an even smaller round hole is just poor coaching which is what happened last year. If we attempt the same in ‘22 we will get the same poor defensive results.

 

[longhornms]

basic set

That wasn't in the article I wrote on Saturday.

It was an opinion I gave a week ago.

I still stand by that opinion for the reasons listed.

Ketch, another great analysis would be the performance of the EE’s versus non-EE’s. You would think that the extra spring would advance their success rate dramatically by giving them an extra year to develop.

 

[RCPERK2]

Yeah, you're shit out of luck.

As a Horns fan, I hear that a lot.

 

[The-Eyes-of-Texas]

Next 10. Not my favorite jam.

Who the fook is this guy?!

 

[Enjoying the Ride]

Ketch, I believe you have very good historically based and statistically significant data on the success of college players based on their high school rankings. We know beyond doubt that it is better to have highly ranked high school players than lower ranked ones (not too surprising) but, not so obvious, that the difference in outcomes is much more significant at the high extremes of the ranking continuum than in the middle section of the rankings.

But I believe any conclusions about using the portal for transfers are a whole lot less certain. The portal is so new and the flood of transfers now becoming available is so recent that we don't have good statistics on the characteristics of who goes unto the portal much less outcome data on how well they perform after they come out of the portal. Currently all evidence is pretty much anecdotal.

In the absence of hard statistical data, we are left with debating how generally believed causative factors affect who goes into the portal and how those kids may or may not succeed coming out of the portal.

Based on my beliefs on what causes guys to go into the portal, I would suggest there are two possible groups of guys that represent the highest probability of helping teams with really good performance (making it to the NFL).

One group is made up of guys who were highly ranked coming out of high school but who are looking for more playing time. But aren't these guys likely going to be skewed toward the set of high ranking high schoolers who DON'T make it to the NFL? The poor result grouo comprising 50 percent of 5 stars, 67% of high fours and 80% of low fours and high threes? Example number one is Ben Davis.

The second set of interesting guys are the ones who were ranked low coming out of high school but who seem to be performing quite well in their early college careers - at places like Albany or New Mexico or Wyoming. These guys are candidates for being the real rarities of being highly successful despite coming out of high school in a ranking group with a 1 out of 50 predicted success ratio.

The real question is whether performances against competition like they are going against in small schools is definitive enough to really identify guys who will succeed at a higher rate than the 3 stars who are slogging along as medium to low contributors at big schools? The big school guys will have faced better competition both in games and practice, probably had better coaching, probably had better S&C programs, played in higher pressure situations in bigger stadiums, etc.

We don't have enough data for sure and it will be interesting to keep collecting and analyzing the data as time goes on. But, based on what I think are the most likely reasons causing guys to go into the portal, I personally will be surprised if the average hit rate for portal transfers, even among the two likely categories described above, is close to the 20% rate you might expect from a low 4 star out of high school.

 

[North Texas Golfer]

I agree with you about hope springs eternal with new recruits to the program.

The value of Ketch’s research is that it sets a bar and defines reasonable development in a program. The rough average is 50% 5 stars get NFL drafted and 20% 4 stars get NFL drafted and 15% of high 3 stars get NFL drafted. Basically the NFL draft represents a top 250 player that is draft eligible any particular year.

Based on Texas’ 2022 class ranking plus the previous rankings of the two portal players Texas picked up and add D. Campbell to the class as expected then the baseline number of NFL drafted players Texas added to the program is 4-5. That is the minimum bar that should be reached in this class including the portal signees.

If Texas repeats that the next year then the program should be competing as a top 10-15 team by 2023. That is the minimum bar.

The championship programs like Alabama, Georgia, Clemson, tOSU are signing so many 5 stars every year and hit on and develop enough 4stars they almost have NFL draft talent at every position.

Programs like Texas, USC, Michigan, Florida etc either have to start signing enough 5 stars to compete or start winning the evaluation process and have a bunch of 4 stars hit like X Worthy did.
Texas and Sark have to do a better job of evaluating the 3-4 stars like Baylor and OSU did the last couple years and coach the lesser talent to play like NFL draftable players if Texas is going to compete at a championship level by 2025.

I think your last 2 paragraphs are spot on.

I just did a little research on Alabama's and Texas's recruiting classes since 2012 (using the 247 composite rankings) and the difference is quite startling. Especially in the last 4 years.

This is for the past 4 years,
Bama has signed 52 players in the top 100. Texas has signed 14.
Bama has signed 74 players in the top 200. Texas has signed 37.
Bama has signed 87 players in the top 300. Texas has signed 50.
Bama has signed 96 players in the top 400. Texas has signed 61.
Bama has signed 99 players in the top 500. Texas has signed 65.

Bama has signed only 15 players in the past 4 years who were NOT in the top 300. Texas has signed 46 players not in the top 300.

So far in 2022, all 23 players Bama has signed are in the top 300. Of the 27 players that Texas signed, only 15 are in the top 300.

Over the last 4 years, Bama has only signed 3 players who were not in the top 500! And one of them was a kicker. Texas has signed 31 not in the top 500 during that same period.

 

[Ketchum]

I’d like to see you take on a top 10 of two of the most iconic original American rock bands. The Allman Brothers Band and/or Grateful Dead (I know there are plenty of fans of the later on here). 🤷‍♂️

I need to do the Dead.

 

[Ketchum]

fvck Bill O'brien.

fair enough

 

[Ketchum]

No Hit the Lights?
No Creeping Death?
No Battery?
No Blackened?

I recognize going through that you only like the thrash bangers apparently, which explains the position of One and the absence of Fade to Black or Welcome Home......But no Battery or Blackened invalidates the list completely.

Not a single track from later years.....
Bleeding Me?
Whiskey In The Jar?
Fuel?
No Leaf Clover?
St. Anger?

Ok maybe not that last one lol.

I'll accept your apology in the form of a 1000 word essay on why Load is not only the most under appreciated album Metallica ever put out, but is actually a top 4 album in their discography (Bonus points if you can make the argument for top 3!)

I feel like I need to be Bart Simpson writing on the blackboard.

 

[Ketchum]

Ketch, thanks for the write-up. i, too, think it's cool when you quantify the recruit rankings using actual historical data. here's to hoping some of our players are ahead of the average this year.

i like our recruiting class, but i think we definitely should've been more aggressive in the portal on some positions. regardless, if ewers lives up to the hype, this team may finally start to take off. our defense can't get worse, so if our offense is as good or better this year, then i think this team can actually turn it around. seems like the majority of the foundation is set on the OL. i'd still hate seeing 8-5 next year, but that would be an improvement lol.

You've said it alot, but Sark is tied with Ewers. let's just hope we finally hit on a top-tier QB.

Here's hoping he has his number retired some day. I just want a fun website.

 

[Ketchum]

Grateful dead would be awesome. Has @Ketchum done a pearl jam top 10? been listening to a lot of them lately

I did about a decade ago.

 

[Ketchum]

Yea, the conversation sucked. It turned into to rock throwing, taking shots, apologizing.

It wasn’t my intention to have that type of interaction.

Let's just consider it water under the bridge.

 

[Ketchum]

I think he’s done at least one of those bands. I could be totally wrong too. He use to do a lot of these and I swear I remember a Pink Floyd one.

It's probably been at least 8 years. Maybe 9 or 10.

 

[Ketchum]

I don’t hate the NFL. I understand your point about elite talent being necessary to compete for a NC. Even though you didn’t need to prove that to me, I am a numbers geek and enjoy that analysis.

I think the biggest disconnect you have with some readers is simply word choice. Many, myself included, don’t like considering someone not drafted into the NFL as a bust. A player can be a valuable, contributing member of a D1 program and not be drafted. It feels wrong to call them a bust.

Also, I suggest reading the room. Texas fans have been miserable for more than a decade. Largely we want a program that is fun to follow. Not an embarrassment. Shows some player development. When you take a dump on that hope, the fun of recruiting, it doesn’t matter if you call it being real.

I don’t suggest blowing smoke up anyone’s ass. But I think it is possible to frame the discussion differently.

I understand where you are coming from.

Again, the NFL drafted metric is used to eliminate the subjectiveness of it all. It casts a wide enough net each year that it covers most of the basic ground we need covered IMO, with the acknowledgement that there are outliers and perhaps a forward margin of error.

Believe me, I want you guys to have fun. Just not myopic in the search for it. we'll keep searching for the middle ground.

 

[Ketchum]

If Texas signs D. Campbell and with getting Ewers and tOSU DB in the portal then they really should have added at least 5-6 NFL quality players to the roster the next couple years. If Texas repeats that success the next 2 signing classes they will be SEC ready!

You nailed the key point, which is stacking the classes that succeed on top of each other. It's killed this program for a while.

 

[Ketchum]

Wasn't going to call out Hicks, but he was near the top of my list. Injuries really short circuited his career at Texas. Again, not hating on the guy for making it in the NFL, but we sure could have used more of what he is bringing to table now when he was at Texas.

Jordan Hicks?

This is a short piece of his bio.

"had 28 career starts and 12 double-digit tackle games ... after playing in every game as a freshman and sophomore was hampered by injuries in 2012 and ‘13 ... played in just four games in 2013 due to an Achilles injury ... missed 10 games in 2012 due to a hip injury and earned a medical redshirt ... played in every game in 2014 and went on to earn second team All-America honors from Walter Camp and the FWAA"

 

[Ketchum]

ya it was definitely injuries, but it still feels like almost all current NFL players underperformed in college. like ketch said, it was probably just because texas hasn't been good for 10+ years.

Hicks was a hit. If all the misses were like him, this program would have some championships in the last decade.

 

[Ketchum]

I'm not knocking your analysis. I found it very interesting and worth the read. All I'm saying is that only 5 schools in the entire country had two or more 5-star recruits for the Class of '22. And only A&M and Georgia have more than two. So schools are evidently finding quite a bit of value in their 4-star players. Yes, it's more of a gamble; that goes without saying, but if I'm Sark, I'm still excited when I land a solid 4.

development matters a lot.

for the last decade, the teams like Oklahoma State and Baylor have developed three star prospects at four star rates and Texas has developed four stars at low three star rates.

 

[Ketchum]

@Ketchum

You know that I love your hit rate analysis - I think about it a LOT over these past several years / and think a ton about how huge a gap the top classes have versus say #5 / which is basically in the same realm as #25 when it comes to talent acquired

I am still thinking deeply on the relative value between a 4 star 20% hit / and a portal player.

A big consideration is the amount of difference in what a hit represents - that I'm still trying to get my head around

Xavier Worthy was in the upper group.... not 5 star and only barely in the Top 70 / just squeaks in / but lets count his hit rate at 25%

When he does hit -> He impacts for 3 years / and the differential he brings to a team is actually (so far based on portal activity) a much bigger impact to a team that what a portal can bring

Now if we start seeing over the next few years actual game changer recruits enter the portal more often than they are now -> this equation may keep shifting

TLDR - I think we aren't using enough spots for portal guys given where are program is now / but I still would caution that it can get overused in the concept of building an entire roster.

I just think we need to figure out how to quantify them and that part isn't easy.

 

[Ketchum]

@Ketchum thank you for the clip from the baseball game. As someone who has a special needs sister nearing the end of her life, that has even more meaning for me than usual. My parents and I spent many years at Special Olympics events and the pure joy expressed was always heartwarming to see.

thanks for sharing. Glad your liked the clip.

 

[Ketchum]

@Ketchum Who do you think plays better at the end of spring? Ewers or Card? Not who will be the starter but who will actually be the better player at that point?

Card

 

[Ketchum]

They love a world where they control everything. NIL is giving players more options and they don't like losing control

so true