Ever have a good intention turn sideways on you?
One moment you're having an inspiration of some decent deed and the next you're scrambling to keep the consequences of your idea from spiraling out of control in ways that become a metaphorical Hindenburg for some poor bastard that didn't do anything other than get in the way of your tsunami of intended good.
On Saturday afternoon, a well-known Orangbloods poster sent me the following text:
"All of your star analysis has ruined me. I'm more pissed today about LTG's commitment than I am excited for a four-star safety at a position of need."
To quote the great Steve Urkel ...
When I was first inspired to chase the idea of quantifying the proper value of a recruiting ranking, my intention was not to steal the joy of recruiting away from anyone.
Instead, I wanted transparency. For years, I had this feeling like recruiting was similar to going to the state fair and getting upset because you can't get the basketball through a crooked rim. It never occurred to me that pointing out that the rim was crooked would ruin basketball altogether for some more than it would help those people understand why the shots keep missing.
Along the way, when a 5-7 Texas team full of four-stars loses to a Baylor squad full of three-stars, I thought explaining why most of those four stars aren't really all that more historically valuable than the three stars that don't make for top-10 classes would prove to be an moment of enlightenment.
Instead, it's turned into something that is merely more sobering than anything else, especially when your team just turned in a 5-7 season.
Sorry about that.
In teaching everyone that 4 out of every 5 basic four-star prospects fail to turn into NFL drafted players, that reality makes throwing a party every time your favorite school signs a national Top 200 type of prospect kind of hard to do.
Yet, if we're being honest, a party shouldn't be thrown every time your school signs a player wit a profile that fails to develop into a next-level type of player 80 percent of the time. No kid likes learning the truth about Santa, but it sure as hell makes the world a little easier to understand once you do.
Truth be told, I don't even recall how it was that I learned the truth about how presents are distributed on Christmas. Maybe if I did, I'd feel completely differently about this entire conversation.
No. 2 - Let's make something out of those good intentions ...
With the Longhorns officially adding its 27th signed prospect on Saturday with the commitment of Larry Turner-Gooden, I thought we might use some of the proven historical data points to piece together what a successful 2022 recruiting class might look like.
The five-star
Traditionally, the chances that a five-star offensive lineman turns into an NFL-drafted player are about 50-50. The numbers actually decline if we're just talking about the successful conversion rates among five-star linemen from the state of Texas.
So, what does that mean in a world where the Longhorns have Kelvin Banks in the cupboard and Devon Campbell waiting in the wings? History shows that if you sign two, you're more than likely going to hit on just one.
Texas needs to hit on Banks. Period. Campbell, too, once he signs (if he signs).
Likely hits: 1
Needed hits: 2 (if Campbell signs with Texas)
The High four-stars
The Longhorns currently have two high-four star prospects from the Rivals rankings - Terrence Brooks and Brenen Thompson.
Historically, this tier produces NFL-drafted players about 1/3 of the time. Ballpark. Sometimes it's a little higher. Sometimes it's a tad lower.
Likely hits: 1
Needed hits: 1
Don't get me wrong, a 100-percent hit rate between these two would be awesome, but there's likely a less than 15% chance that happens, so anything other than a zero in this spot is a win.
The mid-four-stars
This is where development really starts to matter for the program. This tier of the rankings cranks out an NFL-drafted player about one out of every five players.
The Longhorns have six of these 20-percenters: Maalik Murphy, Jaray Bledsoe, J'Mond Tapp, Justice Finkley, Jaylon Guilbeau and Neto Umeozulu.
Likely hits: 0 or 1
Needed hits: 2 or 3
This won't seem like a huge ask for many of you, but hitting 3 of 6 from this group would represent a monster-sized win and exactly the kind of margins cheater that can really start to lead a program in the right direction.
Take a look at the mid-four star hits from the 2019 and 2020 classes: De'Gabriel Floyd, Kenyatta Watson, Brayden Liebrock, Tyler Johnson, Chris Adimora, Marcus Washington, Hudson Card, Vernon Broughton and Xavion Alford.
Not a single one of those players projects as a starter for the Longhorns in 2022 and I'd be hard-pressed to correctly tell you if any of those players end up being NFL products produced by the Texas program by the time they finish their college eligibility. This is the kind of upside-down margins issues that cripples a program.
What can't happen is a total whiff. Even hitting the projected minimum feels like a disappointment.
The Low Four Stars
This is another group that universally hits at a ballpark one out of five clip. Same as the last group.
Texas has signed seven players in this tier: Jaydon Blue, Bryan Allen Jr., Zac Swanson, Cole Hutson, Austin Jordan, Malik Agobo and Larry Turner-Gooden.
Likely hits: 0 or 1
Needed hits: 2
The High Three Stars
Your odds of pulling an NFL player drop from 1 out of 5 to roughly 1 out of 8 or 1 out of 9 when dropping down to the high three-stars.
Texas has signed 7 from this rankings tier: Trevell Johnson, Kristopher Ross, Connor Robertson, Derrick Brown, Aaron Bryant, Cameron Williams and Ethan Burke.
Likely hits: 0 or 1
Needed hits: 2
Anything more than one represents a really good set of events for the Longhorns.
Anything less than a high three-star ...
We're in the 1 out of 15+ at best range at this stage of the proceedings.
The Longhorns currently have 4 players with sub high-three star rankings: Xavion Brice, Will Stone, Lance St. Louis and Savion Red
Likely hits: 0
Needed hits: 1
Adding it all up...
Based on the historical national averages of the prospects the Longhorns have signed, it seems fair to expect that this class will produce 4 or 5 NFL-drafted level players on the average.
If you string four of these types of classes together in a row, you should be talking about having 16-20 NFL-drafted level talents in your program at all times.
Four or five should be the basic set of expectations based on the numbers. If the program hits below that number, it's a good sign that a coach is going to be replaced. If the program hits above that number, it's probably a good sign that its coach is headed for an extension.
Bad = Less than 4
Solid = 4 or 5
Very good = 6 or 7
Great: 8+
No. 3 - Looking at the scholarship board...
View attachment 2025
Some observations:..
* If we exclude the commitment of Ronald Lewis (which we have), who is expected to eventually peel off the Texas commitment list, the commitment of Larry Turner-Gooden leaves the Longhorns with 29 incoming players in the current recruiting class. That would leave the Longhorns with four available scholarships before Texas reaches the maximum 33 incoming players that are currently allowed by the NCAA.
* Unless the NCAA provides a waiver for all returning super seniors, which is entirely possible (but not yet approved), the Longhorns would need five more player departures before the numbers deadline in August. That number would become six if Cameron Dicker returns. If the NCAA allows waivers against the 85-man number for all super seniors, the program would need only 2 (or 3 if Dicker returns) pieces of attrition. Either way, Texas shouldn't have a problem hitting the 85-man number.
* Yes, Texas could add more than 4 more incoming scholarship players, but it will need to juggle a few players into a 2023 classification to make it happen. As we've mentioned previously, none of the current signings are planning on anything other than showing up with a 2022 classification at this point.
No. 4 - Just a quick clarification ...
* I think four-star safety Larry Turner-Gooden is a very good prospect. He has the raw talent to be a key piece of any recruiting class in the country. At worst, I'd probably rank him ahead of 10 players in UT's 2022 recruiting class if we were ranking all 27 high school signees in order.
* Prospects in his tier of the rankings hit approximately 20% of the time. There are less than 100 players in the country that have a profile that surpasses the profile of LTG that is worthy of noting. The number is actually closer to 70.
* I believe the Texas roster needs significant upgrades in its starting line-up at wide receiver, offensive tackle, edge rusher, inside linebacker and safety. Unless you're landing one of those 70 or so players mentioned in the previous point, you're much more likely to find someone who represents an immediate upgrade/contributor to your program through the portal than you are with every other high school prospect left in the country outside of those 70.
* Going into LTG's announcement, the Longhorns had five available scholarships available to address their most obvious needs going into the 2022 season, with the number really being four because one spot is absolutely reserved for Devon Campbell.
* Unless you're landing a player with the pedigree of Campbell, the metrics of adding a successful college player through the portal simply provides so much more immediate value and much less significant risk than a high school prospect if you possess so many obvious need areas that like the 2022 Longhorns currently own. There's a 20-percent chance at best that passing on the high school prospect in favor of someone with less risk and who provides more immediate help is going to come back and haunt you.
* I know I'm unconventional in my line of thinking. I know that no one else in the industry talks like this about recruiting.
No. 5 - Gary Patterson prediction ...
I think we'll see an announcement of his joining the Texas program in the next 72 hours. Patterson will be a featured speaker at the AFCA convention this week. It's hard to believe he would visit on Friday and then draw all of this out beyond the middle of this week.
Based on the fact that a special assistant to the head coach (is that Dwight Schrute's position at Dunder Mifflin?) job has was posted on Sunday, a post that must be for Patterson.
Hang on, we're approaching the finish line.
No. 6 - Forgive me for quibbling ...
Personally, I love me some Chris Beard. I have a lot of confidence that he's going to have a badass program in Austin over the long haul.
Those things being said, the current 2021-22 men's basketball team is kind of painful to watch and not too dissimilar from the-far-too-often-hard-on-the-eyes teams that Shaka Smart produced.
It's currently a team at 12-3 that has been ranked throughout the entirety of the season, but it's a unit that doesn't have a signature win under its belt. Oh, there will be plenty of chances to earn a few signature wins, including a game this week against Iowa State in Ames.
Frankly, I don't have any clue as to how this season is going to go from this moment forward, but I'd be lying if I said the Sweet 16 feels a little lofty when you consider that I'm not sure we've seen this team play two consecutive games at a level of NCAA Tournament success so far this season.
There's no reason to panic, but we also don't have to pretend that what we're seeing so far, especially on the offensive side of things, is meeting higher standards. It just doesn't feel like this team has been able to get out of second gear.
Yet ...
No. 7 – BUY or SELL …
(Sell) He'll be used in an off-field capacity in 2022.
(BUY) I think Texas is best-situated to not step into the SEC until it is prepared to do so on the field. Being able to say you're going to be in the SEC very, very soon is actually a better place for the athletics department than being in the SEC when you're not ready. The football program is not ready.
(Sell) How do we define fair? There's no way to get away from the fact that Sarkisian watched Card impress the hell out of him in practice throughout camp in 2021, but received much less security when he gave him the starting job, which had to make him feel like fool's gold to Sarkisian to some degree. Quinn Ewers will arrive in Austin for the quarterback battle without that key negative existing in his pros/cons list. Card can only change his reputation by creating success in games, but how does he convince Sarkisian that anything he sees in practice can be counted on to get him in the games without an injury occurring?
(Buy) I
think so. I'm not sure what I think about Oklahoma.
(Buy) Yeah, I'm definitely cool with that kind of declaration.
(Sell) That's a bit much in my mind, but he might earn his NFL pension, which is better than a Pro Bowl.
(Buy) If Sarkisian is right about taking the numbers up to 35 or 36, I would definitely expect that kind of improved help on paper to the two-deep.
(Buy) A man has to know his limitations. Well done.
(Sell) 85-percent feels like too extreme of a number for any of those scenarios.
(Sell) The day that college football starts to limit the amount of money a player can make, it increases the opportunity that the NCAA will end up involved in some sort of collusion lawsuit. Also, having a staff of recruiters will always matter. Being able to have both at the same time is really cooking with grease.
(Sell) Lower your expectations significantly. Worthy literally just had one of the great seasons at the position in the history of the school. Come on ...
(Sell) When have Texas fans ever been extremely patient? Especially when Sarkisian wasn't selling a total rebuild when he was hired? That man better win some games.
(Sell) It's Portal time.
(Sell) A complete head scratcher? No, that feels like too strong. The 2022 Portal plan has already been significantly better than the 2021 plan, even if it's not optimal.
(Buy) It would be a lot more fun if the football team could win more games and compete for more championships, but I love my job. I love challenging myself to improve our product and my own level of contributions. It's a little like being married for more than a decade. Maybe the passion isn't quite as hot as the beginning, but the love is absolutely stronger.
(Sell) This just feels like severe hyperbole. The sky isn't falling.
(Sell) I have more respect for Pete Kwiatkowski than that.
(Sell) I think he's being brought in to simply make the program better. That being said, it gives the Longhorns a very good internal back-up plan as a byproduct.
(Buy) A season ago, Cade Brewer played 89% of snaps, while Jared Wiley played 33% of the snaps. With all of that production needing to be replaced, I'd be stunned if Sanders isn't at least in the ballpark of that kind of number.
No. 8 - Scattershooting on the sports weekend ...
... Give me Georgia in the national championship game. The loss of John Metchie has robbed the Alabama offense a little of its magical powers. Plus at the end of the day, how much can I really trust Bill O'Brien?
.., Any SEC head football coach singing for NIL oversight makes me laugh. Yes, that includes Nick Saban. As if he's gone his entire career without a player or five getting suitcases full of money ...
... None of us like single-season records made in 17 games replacing the records made in 16 games in the NFL, but in five years we won't care.
... There's a part of me that would rather play the Bucs or the Rams on the road more than I want the Cowboys to play the 49ers right now...
... On one hand, I love that the Cowboys swept the division this year (6-0), but on the other hand, I don't like that the Cowboys are 6-5 in the rest of their games. That number indicates the presence of a little fool's gold.
... This was Zeke Elliott's last 1,000-yard season with the Cowboys, isn't it?
... Say what you want about the 2021 Texans, but they fought until the very last minute. I was probably more impressed with the loss to the Titans on Sunday than at any other point this season. Yes, that's a moral victory, but so be it.
... Debo Samuel is some kind of football player.
... Where did this version of Rashaad Penny come from? How high will he go in fantasy in 2022 off of the last month of 2021?
... It feels like the Sixers and Ben Simmons are wasting a prime Joel Embiid year and it's pissing me off more by the day.
... Welcome back, Klay Thompson. We've missed you.
... Rest in peace, Bob Saget.
No. 9 - Top 10 Metallica ...
I'm fully aware that...
a. Everyone will hate this list.
b. Someone will call out my preference of early Metallica.
c. Objectively, Enter Sandman should probably be No. 1.
Those declarations out of the way...
10. One
9. To Live is to Die
8. Harvester of Sorrow
7. Disposable Heroes
6. Seek and Destroy
5. Ride The Lightening
4. The Four Horsemen
3. Master of Puppets
2. Enter Sandman
1. For Whom the Bell Tolls
No. 10 - And Finally...
In the event, I just sent your blood pressure up with my Metallica list, let's end this week's column with a real heart-warmer.
