As the calendar turns the page to October and the Texas football team walks into the teeth of the 2017 schedule, one theme stood out in my mind over the course of the last few days.
I need more Tom Herman.
Bitch all you want about the slow development of the offense on offensive coordinator Tim Beck, but Tom Herman largely landed the Texas gig because
he's supposed to be the elite-level offensive guru/quarterback developer.
Not Beck.
When everyone was aiming high with nine- or 10-win season predictions just a month ago, it was because the perception was that the players on offense would thrive under the guidance of the man who helped lead Ohio State to a national title and Houston to a national resurgence.
Not Beck.
Tim Beck was hired to recruit his rear end off and (in theory) execute the Tom Herman vision. While Todd Orlando does his thing on the defensive side of the ball with full control, the anticipation was that Herman is fully involved with the offense.
So, save me the Tim Beck grief.
With the offensive personnel in a state of crisis in certain areas, it's tough to say that talent alone can save the Longhorns on the offensive side of the ball. They need the help of an offensive creator that is regarded as one of the best in the business. With all the respect in the world for any desire to protect and provide a boost to all of his assistants, the buck stops at the feet of the head coach.
This team needs more Tom Herman and it needs it right now. I don't believe it's hyperbole to say that the balance of the season rests on it.
No. 2 – The elephant in the room going into this week ...
Neither quarterback that Texas currently has at its disposal is ready to quarterback a program like Texas to the type of season it strongly covets.
James Brown was a third-year player when the light switch came on in 1995. Vince Young was a third-year player when the light switch came on in 2004. Colt McCoy was a fourth-year player when the light switch came on in 2008.
Shane Buechele is 17 games deep into his second season. Sam Ehlinger is five games into his first season.
When I screamed caution to the masses with regards to the quarterback position all off-season, it had nothing to do with being a hater or having a favorite, it had everything to do with establishing realistic expectations at a position that has only seen Major Applewhite in 1998 and Colt McCoy's Cinderella season in 2006 achieve what is being demanded out of necessity from both players this season.
And this has nothing to do with having a poor offensive line, a lackluster running game with very little explosiveness, tight end play that is such that it's hard to warrant having any on the field and a first-year coaching staff that is still trying to learn the strengths of its team.
It's possible that what we're watching right now from Buechele is the best that Texas will ever get from him, but it's also possible that the grading of his abilities probably should not be taking place until his third year when he's had a fair opportunity to develop. It goes without saying that Ehlinger is still in need of development.
That's not me having an agenda, that's me being fair to both players.
No. 3 – Semi-Bold Prediction ...
I mentioned this in the Facebook Iowa State Post-Game Show on Thursday night, but here's how I see the next two weeks unfolding ...
a. I fully expect Tom Herman to give Shane Buechele a big endorsement on Monday when he meets with the media. It might be the biggest endorsement we've seen from Herman for Buechele yet.
b. Buechele gets the start against Kansas State and I'm expecting a tight slug-fest, one that won't see the Texas offense solve most of its issues. It's a 65%-35% contest coming in my mind, so let's call it Texas 20 Kansas State 13.
c. Texas gets off to a slow start against Oklahoma and Buechele gets replaced by Sam Ehlinger in the second quarter.
In a way, it kind of reminds me of the situation in 2003 when Texas went into the Oklahoma game without a full identity with Chance Mock holding the job over Vince Young. The pressure that comes in a game like Texas-Oklahoma is such that if and when the offense gets stagnant against the Sooners, the sense of urgency of the moment will lead to a switch at the position.
d. Ehlinger makes the start against Oklahoma State.
No. 4 - One excuse on offense that I refuse to buy ...
Collin Johnson needed more touches on Thursday night. In college football, you do whatever you have to do to get your best player involved in a game.
Period.
I don't want to hear that Iowa State dropped eight at times. I don't want to hear about bracket coverage or triple coverage or quintuple coverage.
Get him the damn ball. That it didn't happen is on the coaches, which means it's on Tim Beck, which also means it's on Tom Herman.
Defenses all over America sell out to stop great opposing receivers and somehow all over America, teams find a way to get their great players the ball so their great players can make great plays.
Texas didn't do that on Thursday. The Texas coaches are very well compensated to be smarter than their counterparts on the other sidelines, but they didn't do enough in that facet of the chess match that took place.
Save me the excuse-making. Just make sure it never happens again. Texas can't beat good teams when Johnson has less than 30 yards receiving in a game.
No. 5 – Buy or Sell …
BUY or SELL: Herman is calling plays by the end of the year?
(Sell) Tom Herman seems like a ride or die guy with his boys. I think he's going to spend the rest of the season strongly defending Beck.
BUY or SELL: With the UT defensive improvement, Todd Orlando takes a head coaching job for the 2018 season?
(Sell) I think he's still a year away from getting a job worth taking.
BUY or SELL: Texas can somehow manage 2-2 over the next 4 games?
(Buy) Can? Sure thing.
Will? That's a million dollar question, no?
BUY or SELL: UTwiz will handle the transition to Sam Ehlinger (and the success that follows) in a quiet and humble fashion?
BUY or SELL: Texas ends up as a top-three team in the big 12?
(Sell) Hard for me to say at this point that Texas finishes in the top three.
BUY or SELL: We would be 3-1 with Zaire at QB and Sam would have redshirted?
(Sell) There's no evidence that he would have flipped one of the two losses.
BUY or SELL: With the attention he receives, the fame of his name, coupled with the difficult task of recruiting to Lubbock ... Tech would likely be better off just keeping Kingsbury and hoping he matures into a great coach then moving on from him?
(Buy) What else are they going to do?
BUY or SELL: The offensive line starts maturing and solidifies by the OU game?
(Sell) You realize that the OU game will be either 12 or 13 days away, depending on when you read this, right? What you're asking is going to take more than 13 days.
No. 6 – About Kansas State ...
This is a perfectly average football team.
In watching a perfectly average performance against Baylor on Saturday, there's nothing about this team that is especially scary.
Its passing game is meh. It runs the ball pretty well and uses its quarterback's legs considerably. The defense is pretty good.
This is a team that Texas should 100-percent beat.
No. 7 – If I had a vote that counts ...
1. Alabama
2. Clemson
3. Oklahoma
4. TCU
5. Washington
6. Penn State
7. Michigan
8. Georgia
9. Wisconsin
10. Washington State
No. 8 – Hot damn, Houston (again) ...
Geez, that was an absolute bloodbath.
For the second straight week, it's impossible to begin any NFL thoughts without mentioning DeShaun Watson's performance, first and foremost.
My goodness, how good was he on Sunday? I think I'm more excited for Houston Texans fans today than I have been for them at any point in their history.
No. 9 – Eternal Randomness of the Spotty Sports Mind …
... You could see that USC loss to Washington State coming from a mile away. The Trojans just ain't right.
... The SEC is just terrible enough that Kevin Sumlin might keep his job.
... Very quietly, Washington is steamrolling through the season and looking like one of a handful of teams capable of possibly slowing a third Alabama/Clemson championship game down.
... Let's have a moment of silence for the Butch Jones truthers.
... Penny for Charlie Strong's non-filtered thoughts at the moment.
... I still can't believe LSU hired Ed Orgeron. What a wildly ridiculous decision.
... Sign of the Apocalypse: All it took to get Cam Newton going was the New England defense at Foxborough.
... There's not yet a Super Bowl-worthy team in the entire NFL. Everyone is pretty meh.
... Brutal honesty: I'm more excited about the start of the NBA season than the end of the MLB season.
... Man City is really good. Really good.
... It's a taken a few years to totally understand it, but being a Liverpool soccer fan is a little like being a Dallas Cowboys fan. Therefore, I'm well-prepared for my lot in soccer fan life.
No. 10 – And finally …
Speaking of being a Cowboys fan, my cousin John and his son Kevin Emmitt Smith flew to from Philadelphia to Dallas this weekend to catch the Cowboys/Rams game at Jerry World.
I purchased tickets for them through TicketCity because I wanted to be a good cousin.
So, what happens?
Rams 35 Cowboys 30.
Not one damn thing about what happened in that game was surprising. This is what regressing to the mean looks like.
