Ketch's 10 Thoughts From the Weekend (The good and bad of college football attrition...)
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I am not "happy" when I remember and honor my Soldiers and friends I have lost in combat on Memorial Day but I also don't hang my head all day. It is a day of remembrance that is often celebrated with a day off and lots of bbq, beer, and memorial ceremonies. Celebrate our fallen warriors lives, think about the ultimate sacrifice they have given, and say a prayer for the Gold Star families.
Kind of a weird season series between Arsenal and Chelsea. Arsenal worked them twice and they worked us at the Bridge. None of the games were really that close, which is a bit strange.
Everything was going great and sounding legit, until the Fruity Pebbles comment.
That was so over the top I had to stop reading immediately and put the OP on ignore.
That was so over the top I had to stop reading immediately and put the OP on ignore.
His record against LeBron is not good, his numbers on the other hand are very good.
He can't control all the variables, but they look to be in his favor right now.
let's meet up and hug later. I can tell you need it.
Texas has had about 100 problems and mass attrition is just one. There is not one single problem that causes the last seven years.
Have a blessed day.
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You lie. I know you went to town on a big bowl of fruity ps
For me, it's not about being second fiddle to Zaire, if he's the right guy we need and Herman was going after him then I would care more. That being said, all of this Hype for this guy? Stats don't lie.As it relates to the subject of program turnover (aka ... attrition), new Texas head coach Tom Herman is kind of between a rock and a hard place.
After all, when a new coach arrives at a program, a shake-up within the inherited roster is somewhat expected, as players that can't get with the program will find themselves looking for a new one.
On top of that, the new Texas coaching finds itself needing a solid dose of attrition over the course of the next 15 months, so that a potentially monster 2018 recruiting class won't be handcuffed by scholarship number restrictions.
With eyes on establishing both roster alignment and creating numbers for the 2018 recruiting class, it's fairly easy to consume the roster attrition drug. Out with the old, in with the new, so to speak, forever more.
Yet, as I've written before on the subject of attrition, one of the things that Herman will need to get a handle on is the extreme amount of attrition that began in the final years of the Mack Brown era and never came close to slowing down under Charlie Strong.
The single-most alarming stat about Texas football is that over the course of the last seven seasons (2010-16), the Longhorns have brought in 157 total players to program, only to see 70 of them depart for the a variety of reasons.
One way to look at those numbers is to see that nearly one out of every two players that has arrived at Texas since 2010 has departed with eligibility remaining. Another way to look at those numbers is to understand that it translates to essentially not having a recruiting class at all every other year for the last seven seasons.
Nothing comes free in this world and when you look at the 11-man senior class that Tom Herman has inherited (Roderick Bernard, Armanti Foreman, Lorenzo Joe, Dorian Leonard, Andrew Beck, Tristan Nickelson, Brandon Hodges, Naashon Hughes, Poona Ford and Antwuan Davis) and wonder if there's enough upper-class leadership in a program that has craved it for quite a while, this is what the collateral damage of non-stop attrition looks like.
This comes on the heels of a 2016 senior class that claimed Tyrone Swoopes as its most accomplished player.
The good news for Herman is that if he can get a handle on the turnover and simply lower his annual attrition by an average of 3-4 players per year, the 2016 season could end up being the last in which the program is handcuffed by the constant flood of departures. One look at the updated Texas scholarship board will show that Herman's junior class currently has 27 players in it, which bodes incredibly well for the 2017 season.
However, the sophomore class behind it has only 18 players left in it after the most recent roster flush on the defensive side of the ball and sits in some danger of becoming alarmingly small by the time 2019 arrives. For those keeping score, the Longhorns are scheduled to have 26 redshirt and true freshmen in the program this fall, barring more attrition.
Given that the Texas program has averaged nearly double-dig numbers in attrition each year since 2005, we know that attrition is going to occur and that not all of it is bad. Yet, moving forward, Herman must control the outgoing numbers so that the program can establish a firmer foundation.
Without it, the problems Herman will deal with this season won't completely go away.
No. 2 – Updated attrition numbers ...
Here's an updated look at the Texas attrition numbers over the course of the last four years:
2014 (8/15/13-8/14/14)
(13) Aaron Benson (transfer), Joe Bergeron (transfer), Josh Cochran (injuries), Chevoski Collins (dismissed), Deoundrei Davis (transfer), Bryant Jackson (medical), Montrell Meander (dismissed), Chet Moss (dismissed), Jalen Overstreet (dismissed), Kendall Sanders (dismissed), Leroy Scott (dismissed), Kevin Shorter (injuries) and Kendall Thompson (injuries)
2015 (8/15/14-8/14/15)
(11) David Ash (injuries), Duke Catalon (transfer), Cecil Cherry (transfer), Kennedy Estelle (dismissed), Rami Hammad (transfer), Cameron Hampton (transfer), Desmond Harrison (dismissed), Darius James (transfer), M.J. McFarland (transfer), Miles Onyegbule (injuries) and Curtis Riser (transfer)
2016 (8/15/15-8/14/16)
(8) Adrian Colbert (transfer), Bryson Echols (transfer), DeAndre McNeal (transfer), Ryan Newsome (transfer), Derick Roberson (transfer), Jermaine Roberts (transfer), Jake Raulerson (transfer) and Dalton Santos (transfer)
2017 (8/15/16-8/14/17)
(8) Peyton Aucoin (transfer), Jordan Elliott (transfer), Erick Fowler (transfer), Erik Huhn (transfer), Kai Locksley (transfer), Jake Oliver (graduated), Marcel Southall (transfer) and Blake Whiteley (transfer)
No. 3 – Let the summer workouts begin
It's official... the kids have arrived (and Gary Johnson, too).
No. 4 – Scattershooting on the Longhorns …
... If Poona Ford is the best senior on the roster this year, is Naashon Hughes No. 2? Armanti Foreman? At this point, Hughes seems to have more of a lock on definite playing time than Foreman.
... Man, if John Burt can ever put it all together, his upside is off the charts.
... If the SEC shoots down changing its graduate transfer rules, you take Malik Zaire if he wants to come to Texas. Those of you acting like being his No. 2 is some kind of insult are showing a weak backbone and need to be grateful that the Texas coaching staff doesn't give up on anything so easily. That kind of attitude would have kept Vince Young from ever attending Texas, considering the Longhorns didn't make his top five going into the start of his senior season at Houston Madison.
... I've got five bucks that says Brick Haley won't be the defensive line coach at Missouri when Jordan Elliott departs as a player, that is unless Elliott departs Missouri before Haley can.
... I agree with Alex Dunlap, Gerald Wilbon is the guy in the defensive line discussion that needs to step it up a notch in the coming months. Questions exist inside the program about his long-term upside. With Jordan Elliott opening the door to more playing time for Wilbon, he needs to take the bull by the horns.
No. 5 – Buy or sell …
BUY or SELL: Early summer prediction, if you break up the 2017 season into these three parts buy or sell each record.
The Warm-up: 2-0
vs. Maryland
vs. San Jose St.
The Guantlet: 3-2
at USC
at Iowa St.
vs. Kansas St.
vs. OU
vs. Oklahoma St
The Home Stretch: 4-1
at Baylor
at TCU
vs. Kansas
at WV
vs. TTU
(Sell) I think I'll buy the first two sections, but I'm not sure I'm ready to give this program the benefit of the doubt that it'll go 4-1 in the home stretch. I still have my eye on an 8-4 prediction.
BUY or SELL: 2017: 8-4 (6-3 conference) going into the bowl
2018 AND/OR 2019 : 10-2 going into the conference championship game
2020 AND/OR 2021 : 12-1 going into the college football playoffs (with CCG victory)
(Buy) I'll buy all of that outside of the CCG victory. That's kind of an impossible bottle of lightening that is hard to forecast.
BUY or SELL: There are at least 4 more transfers from the two deep before the end of summer?
(Buy) Yup.
BUY or SELL: Texas has a 3,000-yard passer, 1,000-yard rusher and a 1.000 yard receiver ?
(Sell) I don't see a 1,000-yard rusher on this team this year.
BUY or SELL: Oliver Luck will be the next AD at the University of Texas?
(Sell) I've been told that ship has sailed.
BUY or SELL: If Texas wins against Tech in 08, Texas would have made Strong's Florida Defense look silly?
(Buy) Texas was the best team in the country in 2008 and McCoy/Shipley/Cosby would have done a number on the Gators.
BUY or SELL: With all the changes that Herman is making to show kids that Texas is cool, it's reasonable to expect a uniform change in the next two years?
(Buy) At some point, Texas is going to wear a special uniform. It's only a matter of time.
BUY or SELL: With the addition of a stout freshman class, Shaka turns the UT men's basketball team around and they win at least one game in next year's NCAA tournament?
(Buy) Hello, Sweet 16.
BUY or SELL: Fruity Pebbles are the GOAT cereal?
(Buy) And it's not even close...
No. 6 – Forward steps…
The record will show that the Texas Longhorns went 3-2 this weekend in the Big 12 Tournament, which on the surface isn't really all that impressive.
Yet, in making it to the championship game, the Longhorns did something over the span of five days that it completely do in the previous 100+, which is make baseball at Texas worth having an eye on at all times.
For the first time this season, Texas baseball felt like an event, which is the way the sport is always supposed to feel in Austin.
I think we can all see that this reclamation project is going to take more than a year to completely take place, but give David Pierce and his team credit because they haven't led a few speed bumps keep them from emerging as a dangerous team heading into the NCAA Tournament, despite a top five national schedule that might have broken a lot of teams.
A lot has to go right for this Texas team to emerge from the upcoming weekend with a super regional spot in front of them, but for the first time all season, it seems like a possibility, rather than a pipe-dream.
No. 7 – The moment Kevin Durant has waited his entire life for ...
Five years ago, Kevin Durant was in the same position he finds himself in today as his Golden State Warriors prepare to meet Cleveland in the NBA Finals.
In his path to his first NBA title stood the game's best player (LeBron James) on the biggest stage, and while his numbers were pretty sensational (averaged 30 points, and six boards to go along with 54.8/39.4/83.9 shooting splits), there was a feeling over those five games that he just wasn't ready as an NBA superstar to impose his will in such a huge moment.
Five years later, the moment is not only bigger, but he's taking on James at the height of his powers as a player.
For those that believe Durant's departure of Oklahoma City will forever define his career as a player, I'd offer that whatever happens over the course of the next two weeks will be much more defining.
In this trilogy between NBA super-teams that has never really been seen before in the history of the league, the showdown between Durant and James will be the storyline that takes center stage. While there have been great showdowns in the NBA Finals in the past, few of them in the last 25 years have featured showdowns involving all-time great players (top 25 players of all-time) at the same position.
That's the type of history that we have on our hands with this series.
If Durant averages 30 per game this go-round of the Finals and goes through The King in the process of winning his first ring, you're out of your mind if you believe anything that he ever did in Oklahoma ever matters again.
The stakes are incredible. The theater will be better.
Get your popcorn ready.
No. 8 – Eternal Randomness of the Spotty Sports Mind …
... Mike Trout Tweet of the Weekend No. 1
... Mike Trout Tweet of the Weekend No. 2
... Lavar Ball coaching an AAU team to a 50-point loss while wearing a "Stay in Yo Lane" t-shirt was the most bitterly ironic moment of the sports weekend.
... Want to put Lakers fans on tilt? Show them the following quote from David Stern about the famed Chris Paul non-trade.
"In the course of the weekend, we thought we could redo the deal," Stern said on the "Nunyo & Company" podcast. "We really thought that Houston would be ready to part with [Kyle] Lowry, and we had a trade lined up for Odom that would have gotten us a good first-round draft pick. Not we, but my basketball folks.
"But Mitch Kupchak at the time panicked and moved Odom to Dallas. So the piece wasn't even there for us to play with at the time. So that was it -- just about what was good for the then-New Orleans Hornets."
... I thought it was pretty cool to see a driver from Japan win the Indianapolis 500. I can't say I've ever heard the name Takuma Sato before today.
... Is Arsene Wenger the French Mack Brown?
... Congrats to Arsenal for winning the FA Cup, but that Chelsea team looked like a group that was still recovering from its EPL title-winning championship party. The Gunners were excellent in the win, but I can't remember the last time the Blues were on their collective back-foot for such a long stretch of game-time.
... Miguel Almiron is part of what is right with the MLS. The league needs more of what he brings to the table as a player.
... Mauro Diaz was back in uniform on Sunday night for Dallas FC in the same calendar year that he tore an Achilles tendon. Man, modern medicine is pretty incredible.
... By earning a penalty, which earned the winning goal in the DFB Pokal Final, our young American earned this moment:
No. 9 – A story from a proud daddy ...
In the continuing drama that is the battle with my lovely wife over the greatness of The Beatles, a monumental moment occurred over the weekend.
(For those that don't know, my wife hates The Beatles and tries to ruin any Beatles song that comes on in the car by singing The Monkeys as a distraction.)
On Saturday evening, my three-year old son Hendrix was playing in my car when I notified him that it was getting dark and it was time to go inside.
"No, Daddy," Hendrix replied.
"No, I know you want to stay, but it's time to go in, " I replied.
Then came the game-changer.
"I want to listen to The Beatles," Hendrix proclaimed. "Turn the music on."
"You want to listen to The Beatles?," I asked.
"Yes," he replied.
With that, I turned the car stereo on to The Beatles channel on Sirius Radio, which debuted nine days prior to this conversation. At that exact moment, "Twist and Shout" started to play and Hendrix started to shake his head wildly, clap his hands and dance to the song while sitting in the front passenger seat.
"WHERE IS MY PHONE?!!!!!"
Of course, when my son is dancing to The Beatles and I have a chance to capture such an awesome moment of organic musical selection, the damn thing is nowhere to be found, which means that when I told my wife about the story later that night, she replied, "It didn't happen without pictures."
But, I know it happened and deep down she knows it, too.
Hendrix loves The Beatles. It's the first piece of music that he has ever requested to listen to. And he danced!
Checkmate, wifey. Your Beatles hate will not stand in this household!
No. 10 – And finally …
Happy Memorial Day, everyone. In addition to remembering all of those that gave their lives so that the rest of us can keep our precious freedoms, let's all make a point to remember their families in the process. Behind every man and woman that has given his or her life for this wonderful country is a family that lived the ultimate cost of life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness. Keep those families in mind and if you have a chance, give back to them with love and consideration. Never forget them. Never forget their pain. Never forget that the costs of what we often take for granted never goes away.
It's like 'bama game. Could we have beaten UF? Certainly. Would we have rolled over UF? Pretty silly notion.
Mass attrition is simply the end result of many problems. It's not a cause. It's an effect. Not sure you clearly grasp the concept.
Pretty sure you completely misunderstood what he was saying given your ridiculous answer.
Yes, actually it does cause problems and I'm not sure you can grasp that concept.
It's not rocket science.
No,I understood it. It's an extreme nitpick. My reply was tongue in cheek.
The expression "Happy Memorial Day" is very common expression.
