There's no need to bury the lede this week.
Full disclosure: I considered dropping the Micah Hudson discussion we're about to have a little lower in the column.
Like ... maybe section 4 or 5 ... right next to the David Pierce and Texas Softball talk.
Yet, if we're going to have a conversation about the guy I believe is the best prospect in the state of Texas in the 2024 recruiting class, it probably needs to be at the top.
So, here goes ...
According to a source with very specific knowledge of Hudson's recruitment, the Longhorns are not just trailing Texas Tech in his recruitment, but it sounds like they are
trailing.
I know what you're probably thinking right now ... "Hey Ketch, aren't you the one that put in a Rivals Futurecast for Hudson to Texas back in February?"
Yes, I am.
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For the record, I'm not changing my Futurecast ... yet.
But, I have considered it.
In an effort to protect the sourcing, I have to be careful about what I say about the matter, so forgive me if it sounds like I'm tap-dancing a bit with the specifics.
Here's what I
can tell you at the moment:
This isn't a case of Tech leading because his old man (Desmond Royal) played his college ball in Lubbock back in the early 90s. This isn't about a girlfriend or NIL. Oh, all of these things might become significant pieces of an eventual puzzle in time, but at the moment this seems to be a case of something else.
Again, I can't get into specifics, but the bottom line is that a source has told us that there is a definite comfort level with the Tech staff that is superior to what Hudson has with the Texas coaching staff and that this particular piece of the puzzle has been forming its shape over the course of the last couple of months.
That's not to say that Texas can't make up ground and emerge as his No. 1 school, but the dynamics in play have definitely made me question whether Texas is the school that will eventually emerge as the winner in the Hudson sweepstakes. Significantly.
When Texas hosts Hudson on his official visit next month, it'll have some ground to make up and it won't be quite as simple as showing him how he'll fit in the offense or showcasing the opportunity of playing in the SEC.
No. 2 - Let's talk about 2024 recruiting ...
If I had to guess, Texas will probably end up with a recruiting class that ranks somewhere between 8th-13th when the dust clears for this year's recruiting class.
That statement isn't a call for panic (not hardly). It's merely a case of reading the tea leaves.
Take a look at the super blue chips inside the state of Texas (this includes any player that any national service currently ranks inside the Top 10 in the state) ...
QB: Derek Lagway (No. 6 on the LSR 100, Committed to Florida)
RB: Caden Durham (No. 4 on the LSR 100) and Taylor Tatum (No. 15 on the LSR)
WR: Micah Hudson (No. 1 on the LSR 100), Bryant Wesco (No. 5 on the LSR 100) and Jelani Watkins (No. 12 on the LSR 100)
TE: None
OL: Weston Davis (No. 36 on the LSR 100) and Casey Poe (No. 27 on the LSR)
DT: None
DE/Edge: Colin Simmons (No. 2 on the LSR 100), Dealyn Evans (No. 8 on the LSR 100), Nigel Smith (No. 11 on the LSR 100) and Joseph Jonah-Ajonye (No. 18 on the LSR)
LB: Justin Williams (No. 7 on the LSR 100)
DB/Ath:
Kobe Black (No. 3 on the LSR 100), Terry Bussey (No. 9 on the LSR 100), Xavier Filsaime (No. 10 on the LSR 100, Committed to Florida) and
Selman Bridges (No. 16 on the LSR 100)
(Players that Vegas would make Texas a favorite with are bolded.)
As you can see, there are two players on the list that the Longhorns would be the betting favorite with as things stand. That's not to say that the Longhorns don't have a chance with the likes of Hudson, Simmons and Bussey, but Texas would probably need to sweep up with all of those players in order to make a top-5 class.
It's quite possible that the Longhorns will fare much better with out-of-state talent in the 2024 class than in-state talent, something that occurred in 2019 when Tom Herman signed 14 of 26 players from out of state in what was viewed at the time as a top-5 class.
Here's a look at the out-of-state prospects that have scheduled official visits in June:
QB: None
RB: Christian Clark (6/16 - Phoenix, Arizona), Jerrick Gibson (6/23 - Gainesville, Fla.)
WR: Ryan Wingo (6/16 - St. Louis, Missouri)
TE: None
OL: Nyier Daniels (6/23 - Oradell, NJ), Daniel Calhoun (6/23 - Roswell, Ga.)
DT: Isaia Faga (6/16 - Phenix City, Alabama), Dominick McKinley (6/23 - Lafayette, LA), Terrance Hibbler (6/23 - Lexington, MS), D'Antre Robinson (6/23 - Orlando, FL)
DE/Edge: Melvin Hills (6/16 - Lafayette, La), Jordan Ross (6/16 -Birmingham, Alabama) and T.J. Lindsey (6/23 - Bryant, AR)
LB: Dylan Williams (6/23 - Long Bear, Ca.)
DB/Ath: PJ Woodland (6/16 - Hattiesburg, MS)
On the offensive side of the ball, it's not outlandish at all to think that the Longhorns will land both Clark and Gibson, which would give Texas a very nice 1-2 punch at the running back position. Outside of that, maybe you can give them the three-star giant Daniels as a member of the offensive line class.
Over on the defensive side of things, it's a little tougher to project. Maybe they get one of those defensive tackles, one of the ends and possibly Williams at linebacker.
Bottom line: Barring the coaches pulling some rabbits out of their hats, we're probably looking at an out-of-state group that has 2-3 super blue chip level recruits in it.
When you couple that with what's happening in-state, it just doesn't look like a top-5 class.
All of that being said, this staff has proven itself in recruiting, which is why I'm giving it the benefit of the doubt of putting together a top-10 class.
No. 3 - One BIG question ...
The thing I find myself wondering about with regard to recruiting relates to the following ...
How many non-super blue chip prospects will the coaches take in this class and how many slots might they save for the Portal?
As most of you know, I'm not a fan of handing out slots to the non-super blue chip prospects over possible pieces from the Portal for two very important reasons.
a. Non-super blue chip prospects come with 70-80% failure rates when it comes to being a quality starter/a plus-bench player or emerging as an NFL player.
b. Most non-super blue chips need between 2-3 years of development before they might ... MIGHT... emerge as possible impact players at SEC level. In the age of the Portal, it's rare for players who haven't played much by year two or three to stick around that long.
I would suggest that if the Texas coaches don't believe a player is going to be a starter or significant by the end of his first 24 months on campus, the smart move would be to save that spot for someone in the Portal that absolutely will be a potential starter/significant contributor in less time.
This staff has been much more willing to gamble on taking high school players than saving spots for the Portal, but if you look at the players from Sark's first few recruiting classes that have already hit the Portal, you'll see that those players were exactly the kind of non-super blue chip prospects that I'm talking about.
David Abiara. Keithron Lee. Jamier Johnson. J.D. Coffey. Jordan Thomas. Derrick Harris. Travell Johnson. Derrick Brown.
Hell, even Brenen Thompson (not a Rivals.com super blue chip) needed a couple of seasons of development before he was ever going to hit the field and he was gone in less than a year.
What does every single one of those players that departed have in common? They weren't super blue chips and were long-term projects when they signed.
Trust me when I tell you that this pattern will continue.
No. 4 - What a ride ...
Following the Texas baseball season has been similar to riding a roller coaster with John Candy's character in Vacation.
There have been ups. There have been downs. It has sometimes felt like you've been held at gunpoint. Other times it feels like someone vomited.
Yet, at the very end of the regular-season ride ... it was kind of fun.
With no margin of error existing, the Longhorns swept West Virginia and with a little help from the same Oklahoma team that swept them in Austin just a few weeks ago, David Pierce's team emerged as one of three teams that will put a Big 12 Championship trophy in its trophy case.
Suddenly, the entire tone of the 2023 season has changed. Not only has this group emerged as champions, but its prospects for the post-season might have changed on a dime.
Prior to this weekend, the Longhorns were
projected by D1 Baseball as a No. 2 seed in the Fayetteville Region, which just happens to be the home of projected No. 2 overall seed Arkansas. That's the kind of fate that awaits a third-place finisher in the Big 12 when you have an RPI hovering around 30.
Yet, over the course of three days this weekend, the
Longhorns climbed 8 spots in the RPI rankings, suddenly sitting 23rd in the nation. The results this weekend might not push the Longhorns into a hosting role when Regionals are announced next weekend, but Texas has surely positioned itself from being placed in a regional with a top-8 seed. The difference between going to the Fayetteville regional and potentially going to the Oregon State, Duke or Miami regional as a No. 2 seed is significant.
Suddenly, NCAA post-season success is pretty doable.
Suddenly, the Big 12 Tournament could be pretty important.
It's not outside the realm of possibilities that Oklahoma State and Texas are battling for one regional hosting spot, as D1 Baseball had the Cowboys projected as a host as the national No. 14 seed this week.
Check out the Texas and Oklahoma State resumes ...
* RPI: Oklahoma State (20) Texas (23)
* Overall record: Oklahoma State (37-16) Texas (38-18)
* Non-conference record: Oklahoma State (21-7) Texas (23-9)
* Record vs Top 25 RPI teams: Oklahoma State (4-6) Texas (4-5)
* Record vs. Top 50 RPI teams: Oklahoma State (12-11) Texas (12-11)
We're talking razor-thin margins. The difference between the two teams is the 2-1 advantage the Cowboys have in head-to-head meetings and the fact that Texas has three losses against teams ranked between 101-200 in the RPI, while the Cowboys have none.
It’s advantage OSU at the moment, but you'd have to think the Longhorns have a chance to steal a hosting bid if they can win the Big 12 Tournament title.
So, onward we go on this roller coaster of a ride. Where it will stop, no one can fully know.
But, we're having fun again, right? Here's hoping John Candy doesn't vomit on everyone at the end of the ride.
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No. 5 - Let's chat about David Pierce ...
I'll be honest, I can't tell if David Pierce is the Harry Houdini of college baseball in the best way or the Harry Houdini of college baseball in the worst way.
There always seems to be grumbling from Texas fans about him because he's not so badass that he can be referred to by a single name like Augie or Gus and that might never change.
Yet, if you look at his resume, we're not talking about Charlie Strong, Tom Herman, Shaka Smart, Gail Goestenkors or even ... dare I say ... Steve Sarkisian.
The man has won three Big 12 titles in six seasons. He's also been to the College World Series three times in five previous opportunities. Perhaps he's never achieved absolute greatness, but he's knocked on the door.
Of course, greatness is what he was hired to produce. It's the bar that Texas Baseball strives to achieve on an annual basis and greatness at Texas isn't represented by conference titles or merely winning a game or two in Omaha.
In college football terms, it means that he's more Brian Kelly than Dabo, Nick or Kirby.
That seems to be his greatest sin at this point ... it's not that he's not producing at a fairly high level compared to 95% of the coaches in his sport, it's that he hasn't produced at a level that would allow him to be referred to be a single name.
In almost every sport at Texas, a Brian Kelly-level coach would mostly be embraced, but when you've had a Nick (Augie) or a Kirby (Gus) for nearly 50 consecutive seasons, quite a shadow forms.
The question will never center on whether he's a damn good coach (he is), but whether he'll ever be able to escape the long shadows (I don't know).
No. 6 - Texas Softball Advances to Super Regionals ...
Poooooooooooooooooor Aggies.
Poooooooooooooooooor Aggies.
Poooooooooooooooooor Aggies.
The Texas Softball might not have been done any favors by the NCAA seeding committee, but it went out and handled its business in fairly dominant fashion in outscoring its opponents 21-6 in three games.
Two of those victories were against Texas A&M, which gave the Longhorns a lead in the all-time series between the two schools.
Up next: No. 4 Tennessee in Knoxville (best two out of three)
No. 7 - Another Director's Cup?
It looks like things are going to be very close based on the most recent updates:
Meanwhile, this Tweet from Texas SID John Bianco tells a story about the sports success at UT over the last few years and in the history of the Big 12.
If only football could join the part, amiright?
No. 8 – BUY or SELL …
(Buy) He's been very good for the most part, but very good isn't the bar around this place for baseball.
(Buy) It's going to be close, but I'll say yes.
(Sell) I don't believe the team as a whole will complete 70-percent of its passes. Considering Ewers was at 58.1%, a jump up to 65% this season would mean good things.
(Sell) As of today, you have to think the team will have to win on the road in both the regional and super regional to get there and I'm not willing to go that far, especially since this team often goes through peaks and valleys. It's going through a peak at this exact moment, but the smart money has the team hitting a valley once more this season.
(Sell) I think it's very good, but I'm not quite ready to go that far. It has a chance to be up there, though.
(Sell) I think the defense takes a step back this season from 2022.
(Sell) Walk before you jog and jog before you run. If this team can get to full speed by the end of the year and be anywhere near a playoff discussion ... fantastic! For now, let's see this team get through a tricky schedule.
(Sell/Sell/Sell) Texas biggest recruiting competition doesn't come in the form of one school, it comes in the form of about six (A&M, OU, LSU, Alabama, Ohio State and Georgia). Also, the Aggies will finish with 8 wins. I see four or five losses on that schedule. Finally, you have to use both ... not one or the other.
(Buy) Oh yeah.
(Buy) Until proven that they can consistently win on the road, the answer for me is yes.
(Sell) Getting to Omaha 4 times in 10 years is very doable, but I'm not sure that playing in the national title game twice is likely when you consider that he's been in Austin since 2017 and he hasn't done that yet.
(Buy) Yes, that might represent the kind of game-changing wildcard that could get Texas into the type of rarified air that we're talking about.
(Sell/Sell) I'll give Ohio State the edge over Texas at this point at wide receiver. As for Sanders, I think he's a lock as a top-45 pick if he stays healthy and tests well, but it's possible that the tight end positional value sends him into round two.
(Buy) They'll start flowing in during June.
(Sell) Texas had already played for a Big 12 title in 2001, won 11 games in the previous two season and had finished in the top 10 in two of the previous three seasons (top 12 in the four previous seasons). I don't know if you remember the off-season in 2003, but things were a lot more angst-fueled back then as Greg Davis being in charge of the offense going into 2004 made the upcoming season feel quite different. I remember doing a speaking engagement with the UT-exes group in Nashville. The very first question came from a gentleman that asked if Davis was going to be the OC in the future. When I told him that Davis was safe, he literally got up and walked out of the event. So, no, 2004 and 2023 don't quite feel the same to me.
No. 9 - Scattershooting on anything and everything ...
... You don't have to like him, but those five major championships (and counting) mean that you have to put a huge level of respect on Brooks Koepka's name. The man is now tied with the likes of Byron Nelson and Seve Ballesteros and is one behind Phil Mickelson, Lee Trevino and Nick Faldo. He's basically the third best golfer of the last three decades ... fourth if you still think Ernie Els is better, despite having one less major win.
... You can't win a major on the third day, but you sure can lose it, which is what happened to our boy Scottie Scheffler. His incredible 65 on Sunday simply couldn't overcome his 73 on Saturday. How much did the 73 stick out? No one else in the top six of the tournament shot worse than a 72 in 20 combined rounds of golf.
... Jordan Spieth played pretty good golf in shooting 73, 72, 71 and 69 over four days, but that wasn't enough to make him a viable threat.
... Give me more Michael Block in these majors moving forward. He's fun.
... My Sixers chose Tobias Harris and Ben Simmons over Jimmy Butler when push came to shove. We deserve everything that has happened since.
... Is it too late to become a Spurs fan?
... Nikola Jokic is some kind of player and he's on the cusp of adding the word "champion" next to his name. No one has come out and said it, but we're looking at an all-time top-20 kind of player (and climbing).
... I'm not really into slamming LeBron James for his failures as a 38-year-old player any more than I was a fan of doing it to Michael Jordan when he was a shell of himself and mostly floundering with the Washington Wizards. Find something else to do. Their legacies are fully secure.
... The new White Men Can't Jump movie needs to be avoided at all costs. Trust me.
... It's a case of good and bad for Ivan Melendez right now in High-A Ball.
... Hello, Texas Rangers. A lead in the AL West and a +98 run differential? I don't feel so bad about that opening series ass kicking all of a sudden.
... Jaime Benn is just cruising along. It's been a long time since those Cedar Park Center days, but all these years later, he's the second-best player in Dallas Stars history behind Mike Modano.
... Maaaaaan, you got knocked the **** out!
... What happened in the Valencia/Real Madrid game today was beyond gross and out of line. What in the world is wrong with the world? What kind of person goes to a sporting event and decides that chanting that a player is a monkey is remotely ok?
... There's nothing I really want to say about the Premier League this weekend, except this ... YOU HAD ONE JOB TO DO, LEEDS!
... Can Dortmund finish the deal? Bayern Munich opened the door for them and now it will come down to performing at home next week for its first Bundesliga title since Jurgen Klopp was with the team in 2012.
... One good week for Austin FC produced 6 points and has the squad up to ninth in the West, just on the cusp of where it needs to be to make the playoffs and only two points out of fifth. The MLS is something else.
No. 10 - The List: NFL Running Backs ...
In terms of complicated historical figures in the world of sports, it doesn't get much more complicated than Jim Brown, who passed away on Friday at the age of 87.
On one hand, we're talking about a man that was a civil rights leader, a not-to-be-messed-with social justice warrior, a professor of self-reliance and at times a mediator between gang members. This is a man that many credit for helping save their lives.
Oh, and he also was a hell of a football player.
Of course, that's just half of the story. He was also a man that often possessed an awful temper. On five occasions, he was alleged of violent acts. It was once believed he threw model Eva Bohn-Chin over a second-story railing. Brown's response to that claim was that Bogn-Chin jumped off the balcony to escape him.
That's not all.
Back in 1965, Brown was arrested on suspicion of rape and sexual battery against a 33-year-old school teacher, who claimed Brown punched her in the face, choked her and threatened to break her ribs.
He might be the greatest player in the history of the NFL's pre-modern era, an incredibly important champion of countless important causes and a violent human huge piece of sewer-waste all rolled into one.
Almost nothing about him is uncomplicated. Yet, there's no mistaking that his cultural impact is significant.
Do yourself a favor and
take in this masterful profile on Brown from Jesse Washington. It's the best thing I've ever read on Brown and it doesn't shy away from discussing the ugly parts of his story.
In the meantime, we're ending the column this week with a look at my Top 10 running backs of all-time. I'm sure there will be zero protests.
10. OJ Simpson
Bottom line - his absolute peak as a player was higher than the other players that I left out of the Top 10.
9. Eric Dickerson
The best running back of the 1980s for my money.
8. Adrian Peterson
The best running back of the last decade in the NFL. A three-time rushing champion who ranks in the top 5 all-time for rushing yards and rushing touchdowns.
7. LaDainian Tomlinson
He's Marshall Faulk without the post-season success. The regular season stats are there for him to crack the top five
6. Marshall Faulk
A two-time MVP who is the most versatile threat that has ever played the position. He could destroy you with the ball as a runner or receiver. He holds the NFL record for the most consecutive seasons with at least 2,000 yards from scrimmage (4). He's also the only player in this top 10 with a ring outside of Emmitt Smith from the Super Bowl era.
5. Barry Sanders
The most exciting running back that ever lived. He's only in the No. 5 spot, because if it was fourth and 2 with the game on the line, I'd rather have all four of the backs on the field that I have rated above him. In the biggest game of his life,
he rushed for 44 yards on 11 carries.
4. Walter Payton
Here's my thing with Payton ... outside of his first two seasons in the NFL, he was never the best running back in the league at any time. Even in the years when he was a first-team All-Pro, there were other backs in the league that were better.
3. Earl Campbell
Campbell didn't have the longevity of the other players on this list, but he won three straight MVPs from 1978-80, which can only really be matched by one man on this list. When Campbell and Payton were in their primes as players at the same exact moment in time, Campbell was the superior player.
2. Jim Brown
I completely understand the argument for Jim Brown in the No. 1 spot, but the bottom line is that he played in an era of the NFL that simply wasn't as big, athletic, fast and talented as the players in the modern era. He's the greatest NFL player of all-time of the pre-Super Bowl era, but watching the NFL of the early 60s vs ... say ... the 90s ... is like watching the JV vs. the varsity in 2023.
1. Emmitt Smith
It's not that he's the NFL's all-time leading rusher. Or that he has scored more touchdowns than any running back that ever played in the NFL. It's that he was directly responsible for being the engine of a dynasty. Take a look at this list and you'll see that Smith has more Super Bowl rings than the entire list added together. When the stakes were the highest, Smith was at his best and it never mattered if he had a separated shoulder in the biggest game of the season ... he delivered.
