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Ketch's 10 Thoughts From the Weekend (The Lost Decade)

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I am going to say that this was the moment that the black cloud was formed...

The curse of Marcel Darius.
I think we would all sell out for the 10 wins a season that we had with Mack Brown during the first decade of the 2000's.... The fan base got spoiled as did the coaching staff and the Athletic department.
The We are the Jones's was about as arrogant of a statement that anyone can make.

Every time a coach gets in trouble around Austin the fan base immediately thinks that every coach will jump at the UT job. The pride has been kicked out of UT for the last 8 years. Time to put the work in to build it back to where it once was....
That moment was basically Little Bill's murder/suicide in Boogie Nights.

The came the 80s...
 
As Colt McCoy walked into the Texas locker room just a few minutes before 8 p.m. central on the seventh day of a new decade a mere 2,629 days ago, I distinctly remember the thoughts that were running through my mind at the time.

While trying to process what it meant to see McCoy out of the national championship, I glanced down from my seat in the Rose Bowl to the late Michael Clarke Duncan, who I had met in the concession line and talked Texas football with for about an hour before the game.

Very briefly, the two of us made eye on contact and he gave me this glance that seemed to be asking what my thoughts were on the sight of true freshman Garrett Gilbert warming up on the sidelines.

As I shrugged and gave an unknowing smile, I recall thinking at that very moment that the future was now. During this renaissance of Texas athletics that had taken place in the previous decade, great players in all sports were merely replaced with more great players. Therefore, out goes McCoy and in comes the next great quarterback, who was a five-star prospect and one of the best high school players these eyes have ever seen.

Three-plus hours later, the Longhorns were national runner-ups and the disappointment from the moment was comforted by the notion that the night was but an appetizer for the main course that the future was supposed to represent.

No one walked out of the Rose Bowl that night thinking that we had just witnessed the end of the renaissance.

It didn’t dawn on anyone that the fearless play from the Longhorns for 58 minutes of that championship loss would turn out to be the finest moment for the program in the next seven seasons that would follow.

Or that a men’s basketball program that was a week away from earning a No. 1 ranking would never make it during the same time frame.

Or that the wheels on the Augie Garrido bus were about to fall off.

More than a championship season went up in flames that night with the McCoy injury. More than a championship was lost. The smiles inside the most powerfully rich college athletics program in the world evaporated that night and I’m not sure they have ever truly returned.

The Lost Decade was born on that night.

That’s the way we’re going to remember the current decade if things don’t change drastically. Tom Herman has three years left to change the narrative to a degree. The basketball program has two seasons remaining. Depending on where you stand with a baseball program that is currently amid a 12-8 season, there is either two or three seasons to get back on the championship stage.

With all of its money, its own TV network and a conference that mostly recruits in separate waters, Texas can’t quite put its Humpty Dumpty back together again. At least, not yet.

With 1,018 days left in the decade, here’s hoping I see some smiles around here sooner rather than later.

No. 2 – Tom Herman likes his football team ...

I don’t know what it means for this season or if he’s even close to having the answers to the questions that are still open-ended, but as the Longhorns head back to the practice fields this week and actually put the pads on, one of the things that is quite striking to me about what is taking place is Herman’s general attitude.

He likes the talent available to him. It might be rough around the edges, but you get the sense that Herman believes he has a little something-something with this group.

While Charlie Strong often gave the vibe that he needed an entirely new roster before he could win in Austin, Herman’s tough-love approach this spring comes with a healthy respect for this group’s ceiling if his coaches do their jobs at a high level.

“It was impressive when guys were going full speed and through the whistle,” Herman said about is team after the second practice. “There's certainly a lot of athleticism out there on the field.”

A few moments later, Herman offered up the following thought:

“If you've got elite, championship practice habits, you can call whatever play you want, if you've got good players and you've recruited well. I think that's really starting to sink in.”

Considering that he seems to believe that there’s plenty of athletes and athleticism available to him, he seems to believe that only a substandard next five months will keep this team from enjoying tasty fruit in the four months that will follow them.

It’ll be fascinating to see how Herman handles the rest of the off-season discussion because he seems to be a guy who would rather tap the gas than the brakes when it comes to establishing expectations going into the season.

No. 3 – Three things you need to know about the Under Armor camp in Houston ...

Houston Lamar defensive back Anthony Cook, Houston Lamar wide receiver Al’Vonte Woodard and Cy Springs defensive back Leon O’Neal are every bit the athletes/playmakers that their rankings would suggest them to be. All three rank among the most important prospects that Texas is recruiting this year.

Speaking of Houston Lamar, defensive back D’Shawn Jamison lists the Longhorns and TCU as his top two, while scatterback Ta’Zhawn Henry mentioned that if a Texas offer comes his way, he’ll end up being a Longhorn.

Prospects that will take visit No. 2 to Austin in the coming weeks: Cook, Woodard, Henry, Angleton defensive back B.J. Foster, Spring Westfield defensive tackle Keondre Coburn, and LSU offensive line commit Kardell Thomas.


No. 4 – Buy or sell …

BUY or SELL: Shane Buechele makes it to the Heisman chatter this year with a new offense?

(Sell) He’s closer to losing his job than he is emerging as a Heisman candidate this season.

BUY or SELL: If this year's team was to line up on opening day against the 2005 Texas team, this team would keep it within 30 points?

(Sell) The 2005 team did not play around with average or slightly better than average teams. It’s buried them.

BUY or SELL: Connor Williams will leave Texas a better lineman than Leonard Davis, Mike Williams, or Justin Blalock?

(Sell) You’re talking about three monsters and I’m not sure I’ve seen a monster yet in Williams.

BUY or SELL: Breckyn Hager being a Clay Matthews clone?

(Sell) Not if by clone, you mean he ends up being a three-time All Pro type of next-level player.

BUY or SELL: The final distribution of carries by the end of the 2017 season, looks like this ...

a. Chris Warren
b. Toneil Carter
c. Kirk Johnson
d. Kyle Porter

(Buy) Barring injuries, yes, I expect this to be the correct distribution order for running game carries.

BUY or SELL: Casey Hampton is the best defensive lineman you’ve seen at Texas?

(Buy) The only player that would challenge him for the title is probably Tony Brackens at his very best.

BUY or SELL: Erick Fowler becomes the freak on the field everyone thinks he should be?

(Buy) I don’t know if this is the season it happens, but I believe eventually he’s going to be an impact player at this level.

BUY or SELL: The Lady Horns make it to the Final Four?

(Sell) It’s been a while since I’ve seen this team look like that kind of squad.

BUY or SELL: You posted with an alias handle while banned?

(Sell) I don’t have any active aliases and haven’t for several years, at least.

BUY or SELL: If the ban was another week you couldn't make it?

(Buy) At one point this week, I completely forgot I was banned from posting, only to be reminded harshly moments later that I couldn’t engage in the conversation. I now have a better understanding of what you guys go through when you get a one-week timeout.

No. 5 – Survive and advance…



I don’t know if the most controversial play of the game was actually a charge. I don’t know that Texas played better than NC State. I don’t know if this Texas team has another win left in its season.

What I do know is that sometimes in March it’s better to be lucky than great and sometimes it takes a ton of will to win a game when the ways don’t make a lot of sense.

By any means necessary, extend the season.

To the credit of Karen Aston’s team, it gutted out a win over a good team to advance to the Sweet 16 when it wasn’t on it’s A-game. In fact, there were moments in the second half when it was fair to wonder if the Wolfpack was about to leave Texas in its dust.

Yet, when it needed to in the fourth quarter, Aston’s Longhorns made plays. They sank free throws. They took possible three-point plays and turned them into offensive charges.

It was equal parts Beauty and equal parts Beast.

What matters most is that Texas' ultimate goal is still within grasp.

Awaiting the team is either a Kansas State team that it has beaten twice this season in rough scraps or a Stanford squad that belted the Longhorns by double-digits in its opening game of the season.

No. 6 – Reshaping expectations for Texas men’s basketball …

Before I jump into what might be a radical conversation for some of you, I wanted to introduce a few numbers to the conversation.

Total Sweet 16 appearances in Texas men’s basketball since 1960:

1960-69: 2
1970-79: 1
1980-89: 0
1990-99: 2
2000-09: 5
2010-17: 0

Total Elite 8 appearances in Texas men’s basketball since 1960

1960-69: 0
1970-79: 0
1980-89: 0
1990-99: 1
2000-09: 3
2010-17: 0

Total Final Four appearances in Texas men’s basketball since 1960

1960-69: 0
1970-79: 0
1980-89: 0
1990-99: 0
2000-09: 1
2010-17: 0

Unless the 57-year sample size wasn’t big enough for you to draw any conclusions, it should be rather obvious that three confessions of sorts needs to be made by the entire Texas fan base.

Outside of a seven-season window from 2001-02 through 2007-08, the basketball program’s history is very lackluster.
The fact that Rick Barnes didn’t win a national title in that stretch of excellence caused Texas fans to underappreciate the greatest era of basketball by a 10-mile pole that it has ever known.
Current expectations for Shaka Smart are completely out of whack.

Obama wasn’t even in office the last time Texas made it to the Sweet 16, which means we’ve witnessed a full eight-year term and will go through at least one full year of the next four-year term without the program so much as sniffing the second weekend of the tournament. This is the part of the conversation when I tell you that the words Final Four shouldn’t randomly pop out of your mouth unless you’re talking about another program.

This simply isn’t a program that warrants judging its coach by elite of the elite standards.

What Shaka Smart needs to do is get this team back to 20-win respectability and back into the tournament. That’s a step forward. Then he needs to win a game in the tournament. Another step forward. Then he needs to win another.

At that point, he’ll have done something that 47 of the last 57 teams have never done.

Any success outside of that, based on the history of the program, should be viewed as a truly special season and one worth being acknowledged as such in real time. If Smart can get the program to the point where it gets to a couple of Sweet 16 appearances in the next few years, a season can’t be deemed a disaster when 20+ wins doesn’t translate to the kind of post-season success that the true blue-bloods of the sport rate success by.

No. 7 – Texas baseball hasn't re-arrived just yet …

Well, the feel-good emotion from the Texas A&M game lasted about five minutes.

In a series that seemed to confirm who the big dog in the state of Texas is on the diamond, at least in the Big 12, Texas Tech flexed a little muscle this weekend in Austin. On the opposite side of the fence, Texas remains a team that is hard to figure out after 22 games.

For much of this three-game series, Texas stood toe to toe with the No. 6 Red Raiders, but it ultimately never made a play that would represent a game-winner. The only opportunities were squandered opportunities.

At some point, you have to score runs. As in plural. As in sometimes a large plural number.

It’s a storyline to a season that we’ve heard around these parts for a while now.

No. 8 – Eternal Randomness of the Spotty Sports Mind …

… I went 29-3 in the first round of the NCAA Tournament picks and then Villanova lost to Wisconsin and I might as well never look at it again.

… NCAA officiating … ugh.

… Gonzaga better be careful with West Virginia. I’ve got the Mountaineers going to the Elite 8.

… It’s hard for me to believe that Josh Jackson won’t be a top three pick in the NBA Draft.


… Less than a week ago, San Antonio appeared on course to swipe the No. 1 seed away from Golden State, but losses to Portland and Memphis suddenly have the Spurs two back in the loss column with 13 games left for the Warriors and 14 games left for the Spurs. Perhaps it won’t matter at all in May, but it feels like the Spurs might have let a critical opportunity slip away this week.

… I keep going back and forth on this, but as of today, I’ve got James Harden as league MVP.

… Golden State is 5-5 without Kevin Durant in the last month.

… The Patriots are winning the NFL off-season and should be the smart person’s pick to win the Super Bowl in 2017. Meanwhile, the Cowboys have done nothing but lose players since the off-season began. I’d love to see something happen in the off-season that would lead me to believe anything other than a decline from last season to this season will occur for the Cowboys.

… Liverpool/Man City was one of the most exciting games of the EPL season, as both teams attacked each other in open play for 90+ minutes, yet there wasn’t enough quality on either side in the finishing department to assure itself of three points. Both teams must feel relieved to get a point and disappointed not to come away with three.

… The end of the Arsene Wenger era at Arsenal kind of reminds me of the end of the Mack Brown era in Austin. One more year to get the program back to the top and then he’ll leave, right?

… Give me Atletico Madrid, Barcelona, Real Madrid and Dortmund in the Champions League quarterfinals.

… Portland isn’t a perfect team, but there might not be a more entertaining team that the Timbers in the MLS. After falling behind to the Dynamo on Saturday night, the Timbers put their foot on the gas and raced for three goals in the final third of the game. Diego Valeri is easily in my top three of most interesting players in the league.

No. 9 – Attaboy Orangebloods …

I just wanted to take a moment to thank everyone in the Orangebloods family that contributed to our Haruka Weiser fundraiser. My goal from the outset was to cross the $25,000 mark and we ended up pushing close to $40,000 and I bet if you count the donations coming from the site that went outside of the Orangebloods specific link, we almost certainly crossed that mark.

For those that won bids in the auctions, stay tuned if I haven’t already been in touch with you. I’ll do so in the coming days.

Thanks, Orangebloods!

No. 10 – And finally …

Rest in peace, Chuck Berry. When you were made, the mold was broken.


Wow...One of my favs...great lead in with the Colt injury and follow up with the downturn since.

Boy, all of us sure liked to bitch about Rick Barnes...geez...he landed the big time players that brought us to the dance...T.J. Ford really put us on the map

I did not know that about Chuck Berry and the Jackson's...what a great move

I just bought Chuck's 28 best album...I love the fact that his songs were great and not really longer than 3-4 minutes.
 
@Ketchum Are you just going to ignore the UNI editorial you wrote last year? The thread was up all morning on the front page and you were tagged on it. Just go admit it was a ludicrous write up.
Forgive me because I have three-year old twins and my brain is often mush these days, but... huh?

Nothing you wrote triggered a thought in my brain.
 
Wow...One of my favs...great lead in with the Colt injury and follow up with the downturn since.

Boy, all of us sure liked to bitch about Rick Barnes...geez...he landed the big time players that brought us to the dance...T.J. Ford really put us on the map

I did not know that about Chuck Berry and the Jackson's...what a great move

I just bought Chuck's 28 best album...I love the fact that his songs were great and not really longer than 3-4 minutes.
Rick really was a victim of his own success to at least some degree.
 
Who is forgetting Big Shaun?
I was saying that in the pretext about the comment regarding Casey Hampton being a unique player and being judged for more than his sacks and tackles for loss. I personally got to see both players in high school, and actually watched Big Shaun from little league all the way through high school. Everyone always talks about Casey, but seem to forget to mention Shaun because Casey played on a Superbowl Team. Watching both of them side by side at UT was awesome, and the problems those two caused for the other teams was like nothing UT had seen before. That is all...
 
You're hopelessly lost on on this basketball program can do. Barnes showed what it was capable of. He wasn't a victim of anything other than underachieving far too long down the stretch.
 
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I was saying that in the pretext about the comment regarding Casey Hampton being a unique player and being judged for more than his sacks and tackles for loss. I personally got to see both players in high school, and actually watched Big Shaun from little league all the way through high school. Everyone always talks about Casey, but seem to forget to mention Shaun because Casey played on a Superbowl Team. Watching both of them side by side at UT was awesome, and the problems those two caused for the other teams was like nothing UT had seen before. That is all...
When Shaun was dialed in, he was one of the best the school has ever produced.
 
You're hopelessly lost on on this basketball program can do. Barnes showed what it was capable of. He wasn't a victim of anything other than underachieving far too long down the stretch.
underachieving against what context?
 
Not sure I would agree with "heavy" defensive loses unless one assumes they won't be replaced or dare I say even upgraded. That and some current talent on the roster stepping in. I think Dallas is actually showing some smarts by not caving in and overpaying very Meh secondary players who aren't worth the money and choosing to build through the draft when this is one of the best years in a long while for CB/s talent. Claiborne has barely been able to stay on the field and Carr at 31 wasn't worth the contract to keep him

We will see who they pick up but not ready in march to assume the Defense will certainly be worse.

I also think Dallas did the right thing by not overpaying for average talent. However, I think not having that average talent will cost the Cowboys in 2017 even as not incurring those bad contracts will benefit the club over the next five seasons. Put another way, Dallas is making good long-term decisions that will probably have a short-term negative impact.
 
underachieving against what context?

The context of modern history. WGAF about about 1960-1980? Pretty much unless you won the conference you didn't get into the tournament. Texas basketball absolutely needs to be better than seven straight years of not advancing past first weekend and only 3 wins overall in the tourney.
 
I also think Dallas did the right thing by not overpaying for average talent. However, I think not having that average talent will cost the Cowboys in 2017 even as not incurring those bad contracts will benefit the club over the next five seasons. Put another way, Dallas is making good long-term decisions that will probably have a short-term negative impact.
more agreement
 
The context of modern history. WGAF about about 1960-1980? Pretty much unless you won the conference you didn't get into the tournament. Texas basketball absolutely needs to be better than seven straight years of not advancing past first weekend and only 3 wins overall in the tourney.
I agree that at the end change was needed that Barnes had run out of steam, but against all other Texas history, including modern history, he was still performing above the mean.
 
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The roster that he inherited had quite a few pro players on it, was 30 minutes away from a Big 12 title and provided him with his best defense by a mile in three seasons.
Whatever you say coach, but I ain't buying. Guess I saw a different squad than you did and zero QBs on the entire roster once the concussion happened yet again.
 
I agree that at the end change was needed that Barnes had run out of steam, but against all other Texas history, including modern history, he was still performing above the mean.

From '89 to '11 Texas made the round of 32 sixteen times. 16 of 23 seasons. Barnes failed to do so in 3 of the next 4 seasons. In those same 23 seasons, we finished lower than 3rd in the conference 5 times. Barnes finished 6th, 7th & 6th in 3 of the next 4 seasons. In those 23 seasons we averaged 23 wins/season. Over the next 4 we averaged 20.
 
Outside of men's swimming and diving we are rarely a blue blood in anything. We have our runs in football followed by multiple years in the wilderness. For all our supposed resources the powers-that-be seem content with mediocrity. We are too busy trying to be the Texas version of Cal Berkeley.
 
a. He might not. That is a possibility.

b. He played below a 135.0 rating in seven of 12 games and seven of the final 10.
Ok but I think a lot is explainable by being banged up, getting hit more and playing on a team with a losing attitude. if the freshman is better so be it, but that will be groundhog's day for me and will adjust my expectations to 8 wins tops.
 
Grateful is the wrong word. Realistic is the right one. The data simply confirms what it confirms.

Ketch - I really don't like your logic for setting expectations for Men's BBall. All that matters is the position you are in to compete for high end recruits today. And the past only matters to the extent that it impacts your ability to recruit today. If for whatever set of circumstances, Shaka is in a position to recruit a top 16 class, then I expect Sweet 16 results on the court.

Take the NBA team with the worst record in the last 30 years - give them Lebron, Curry etc. today and they will win and they will win right now.

Now, if you want to say that we haven't earned the right to expect top 25 recruiting classes in BBall and therefore should not expect top 25 results ... I'm in.
 
Whatever you say coach, but I ain't buying. Guess I saw a different squad than you did and zero QBs on the entire roster once the concussion happened yet again.
I'm just saying that the talent he inherited provided him with a quality first year defense had several pro players on it. That's pretty indisputable.
 
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From '89 to '11 Texas made the round of 32 sixteen times. 16 of 23 seasons. Barnes failed to do so in 3 of the next 4 seasons. In those same 23 seasons, we finished lower than 3rd in the conference 5 times. Barnes finished 6th, 7th & 6th in 3 of the next 4 seasons. In those 23 seasons we averaged 23 wins/season. Over the next 4 we averaged 20.
ok?
 
Outside of men's swimming and diving we are rarely a blue blood in anything. We have our runs in football followed by multiple years in the wilderness. For all our supposed resources the powers-that-be seem content with mediocrity. We are too busy trying to be the Texas version of Cal Berkeley.
Football ranks top five all-time in wins.

Baseball as more CWS appearances than anyone.

Women's basketball has blueblood history.

Golf has won championships.

I think volleyball is a blueblood.
 
Ok but I think a lot is explainable by being banged up, getting hit more and playing on a team with a losing attitude. if the freshman is better so be it, but that will be groundhog's day for me and will adjust my expectations to 8 wins tops.
You'll have to excuse me if I hold him somewhat accountable.
 
Ketch - I really don't like your logic for setting expectations for Men's BBall. All that matters is the position you are in to compete for high end recruits today. And the past only matters to the extent that it impacts your ability to recruit today. If for whatever set of circumstances, Shaka is in a position to recruit a top 16 class, then I expect Sweet 16 results on the court.

Take the NBA team with the worst record in the last 30 years - give them Lebron, Curry etc. today and they will win and they will win right now.

Now, if you want to say that we haven't earned the right to expect top 25 recruiting classes in BBall and therefore should not expect top 25 results ... I'm in.
This has nothing to do with this season because it was an unmitigated disaster. However... in general... Texas fans need to realize how hard it is to win consistently at the elite level in basketball. I think most have ridiculous expectations. It's not too much to expect that, let's say.... once every few seasons you're making a Sweet 16 run or better. It's not going to happen every season, at least that's what all of UT's history mostly tells us.
 

What don't you understand. Barnes was underperforming. It's not terribly difficult to understand. This is the flagship school in a state LOADED with talent centered on two major centers and a third solid one. Thinking we somehow shouldn't expect a very good basketball team is small time thinking.
 
What don't you understand. Barnes was underperforming. It's not terribly difficult to understand. This is the flagship school in a state LOADED with talent centered on two major centers and a third solid one. Thinking we somehow shouldn't expect a very good basketball team is small time thinking.
under-performing against the standard that he, and only he, has met in the history of the program.

we don't disagree. just not connecting on the language.
 
This has nothing to do with this season because it was an unmitigated disaster. However... in general... Texas fans need to realize how hard it is to win consistently at the elite level in basketball. I think most have ridiculous expectations. It's not too much to expect that, let's say.... once every few seasons you're making a Sweet 16 run or better. It's not going to happen every season, at least that's what all of UT's history mostly tells us.

I agree that it is hard to win at an elite level in all D1 sports. But why does our basketball history limit our basketball future beyond the ceiling on how well we can recruit today? Basketball results, like few other team sports, is so heavily influenced by so few individuals (i.e. top recruits).

Give me the next KD or TJ and we will win right now. I see bball as more of a lottery on getting great players ... much like it is in the NBA. If Shaka through his reputation and some foundational draw to UT can bring in top 15 - 20 talent then we should win a couple of games in the tournament.

I do accept that Kansas, Kentucky, NC, Duke etc. have more balls in the lottery hopper than we do at any point in time, but beyond that, we shouldn't be taking results from the last 50 years and extrapolating that to future results.
 
I do accept that Kansas, Kentucky, NC, Duke etc. have more balls in the lottery hopper than we do at any point in time, but beyond that, we shouldn't be taking results from the last 50 years and extrapolating that to future results.
That's not what I was doing.
 
From '89 to '11 Texas made the round of 32 sixteen times. 16 of 23 seasons. Barnes failed to do so in 3 of the next 4 seasons. In those same 23 seasons, we finished lower than 3rd in the conference 5 times. Barnes finished 6th, 7th & 6th in 3 of the next 4 seasons. In those 23 seasons we averaged 23 wins/season. Over the next 4 we averaged 20.
You convinced me. Rick Barnes should be rounded up and shot, or at the very least get the Nancy Kerrigan action.
 
Ok but I think a lot is explainable by being banged up, getting hit more and playing on a team with a losing attitude. if the freshman is better so be it, but that will be groundhog's day for me and will adjust my expectations to 8 wins tops.

I look at it as the exact opposite. If Sam beats out Shane, you should adjust your expectations from 8-9 wins to a higher number.
 
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I look at it as the exact opposite. If Sam beats out Shane, you should adjust your expectations from 8-9 wins to a higher number.
I'm hoping for 10 wins regardless. Hell, I would be disappointed if Texas wasn't a serious contender for the Big 12 championship in November. Others may disagree.
 
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