Ketch's 10 Thoughts From the Weekend (The Lost Decade)

[bbussell1]

This has nothing to do with this season because it was an unmitigated disaster. However... in general... Texas fans need to realize how hard it is to win consistently at the elite level in basketball. I think most have ridiculous expectations. It's not too much to expect that, let's say.... once every few seasons you're making a Sweet 16 run or better. It's not going to happen every season, at least that's what all of UT's history mostly tells us.

I agree that it is hard to win at an elite level in all D1 sports. But why does our basketball history limit our basketball future beyond the ceiling on how well we can recruit today? Basketball results, like few other team sports, is so heavily influenced by so few individuals (i.e. top recruits).

Give me the next KD or TJ and we will win right now. I see bball as more of a lottery on getting great players ... much like it is in the NBA. If Shaka through his reputation and some foundational draw to UT can bring in top 15 - 20 talent then we should win a couple of games in the tournament.

I do accept that Kansas, Kentucky, NC, Duke etc. have more balls in the lottery hopper than we do at any point in time, but beyond that, we shouldn't be taking results from the last 50 years and extrapolating that to future results.

 

[Ketchum]

I do accept that Kansas, Kentucky, NC, Duke etc. have more balls in the lottery hopper than we do at any point in time, but beyond that, we shouldn't be taking results from the last 50 years and extrapolating that to future results.

That's not what I was doing.

 

[trophies2]

From '89 to '11 Texas made the round of 32 sixteen times. 16 of 23 seasons. Barnes failed to do so in 3 of the next 4 seasons. In those same 23 seasons, we finished lower than 3rd in the conference 5 times. Barnes finished 6th, 7th & 6th in 3 of the next 4 seasons. In those 23 seasons we averaged 23 wins/season. Over the next 4 we averaged 20.

You convinced me. Rick Barnes should be rounded up and shot, or at the very least get the Nancy Kerrigan action.

 

[UTwiz]

Ok but I think a lot is explainable by being banged up, getting hit more and playing on a team with a losing attitude. if the freshman is better so be it, but that will be groundhog's day for me and will adjust my expectations to 8 wins tops.

I look at it as the exact opposite. If Sam beats out Shane, you should adjust your expectations from 8-9 wins to a higher number.

 

[trophies2]

I look at it as the exact opposite. If Sam beats out Shane, you should adjust your expectations from 8-9 wins to a higher number.

I'm hoping for 10 wins regardless. Hell, I would be disappointed if Texas wasn't a serious contender for the Big 12 championship in November. Others may disagree.

 

[Ketchum]

I'm hoping for 10 wins regardless. Hell, I would be disappointed if Texas wasn't a serious contender for the Big 12 championship in November. Others may disagree.

You remember last season, right? I would be a tad more realistic and if it happens, it'll be a pleasant surprise.

 

[trophies2]

You remember last season, right? I would be a tad more realistic and if it happens, it'll be a pleasant surprise.

I do remember. I get it. The team's talent is unproven and has to learn how to win, but suppose Tom Herman was coaching last year's team: are they 5-7? No way imo.

You had Mike Finger on your show a week ago and he even conceded that Charlie (whom he liked) did a poor job last year in preparation.

Texas should've won 8-9 games last year with some competent coaching - especially considering how poor the conference was.

Don't misunderstand me, do I think this team and roster are anywhere close to a national championship contender? No. Far from it.

Do I think they're capable of winning 10 games and being a contender for the big 12 championship, especially considering how poor the conference was last year? Yes I do. I didn't say win, I said contend.

I get the skepticism. I do. Many people, even believers of Herman want to see it. I completely understand. I just think this team has a higher potential than 7-8 wins that most people project.

 

[Ketchum]

I do remember. I get it. The team's talent is unproven and has to learn how to win, but suppose Tom Herman was coaching last year's team: are they 5-7? No way imo.

You had Mike Finger on your show a week ago and he even conceded that Charlie (whom he liked) did a poor job last year in preparation.

Texas should've won 8-9 games last year with some competent coaching - especially considering how poor the conference was.

Don't misunderstand me, do I think this team and roster are anywhere close to a national championship contender? No. Far from it.

Do I think they're capable of winning 10 games and being a contender for the big 12 championship, especially considering how poor the conference was last year? Yes I do. I didn't say win, I said contend.

I get the skepticism. I do. Many people, even believers of Herman want to see it. I completely understand. I just think this team has a higher potential than 7-8 wins that most people project.

we both agreed that 8.5 was the right line in the sand for this season. Until quarterback is completely settled, I'm leaning on the under.

 

[trophies2]

we both agreed that 8.5 was the right line in the sand for this season. Until quarterback is completely settled, I'm leaning on the under.

That's fair.

 

[Ketchum]

That's fair.

That's as high as I've gone in terms of Texas wins in the preseason since 2010.

 

[jspirohorn]

I look at it as the exact opposite. If Sam beats out Shane, you should adjust your expectations from 8-9 wins to a higher number.

I know you're a fan and admittedly I've never seen Sam play but I do know he is a true freshman. Winning 8 games with a freshman QB and returning starters who just have never played that well sounds about right to me unless Hermann works some serious magic.

 

[Ketchum]

I know you're a fan and admittedly I've never seen Sam play but I do know he is a true freshman. Winning 8 games with a freshman QB and returning starters who just have never played that well sounds about right to me unless Hermann works some serious magic.

Herman believes in his magic skills.

 

[Dos Horns]

I'm hoping for 10 wins regardless. Hell, I would be disappointed if Texas wasn't a serious contender for the Big 12 championship in November. Others may disagree.

Ever play QB in college? It's a giant step up in a number of ways from high school, and not easy for most kids. Things are a little different now with the spread offenses, but it's still a lot to ask for a true FR to lead a team to 9+ wins after they just finished 5-7. Sam is a great kid by all accounts, and as an EE, has a chance to flourish, but let's not get carried away with unrealistic expectations.

 

[trophies2]

Ever play QB in college? It's a giant step up in a number of ways from high school, and not easy for most kids. Things are a little different now with the spread offenses, but it's still a lot to ask for a true FR to lead a team to 9+ wins after they just finished 5-7. Sam is a great kid by all accounts, and as an EE, has a chance to flourish, but let's not get carried away with unrealistic expectations.

Perhaps I was overzealous. We shall see.

 

[trophies2]

That's as high as I've gone in terms of Texas wins in the preseason since 2010.

That's sad to think about, but you've been very accurate thus far. No doubt.

Regardless, I'm a bit more optimistic, perhaps foolishly, but I think Tom has got the right stuff for a quick turnaround. I think these players are motivated to win. We shall see.

 

[Ketchum]

That's sad to think about, but you've been very accurate thus far. No doubt.

Regardless, I'm a bit more optimistic, perhaps foolishly, but I think Tom has got the right stuff for a quick turnaround. I think these players are motivated to win. We shall see.

The roster is as good as any in the Big 12.

Just don't know about quarterback yet.

 

[McGuapo]

more agreement

They basically did what the Patriots would do, but they're not the patriots and nobody believes in their formula yet.

 

[trophies2]

The roster is as good as any in the Big 12.

Just don't know about quarterback yet.

I think it will end up ok, perhaps even good.

Am I putting serious money on it? Not quite, but I'm confident it will be good.

 

[Ketchum]

They basically did what the Patriots would do, but they're not the patriots and nobody believes in their formula yet.

the same patriots that have had the most creative off-season in terms of acquisitions of any team in the league?

 

[Ketchum]

I think it will end up ok, perhaps even good.

Am I putting serious money on it? Not quite, but I'm confident it will be good.

what's the definition of good?

 

[trophies2]

what's the definition of good?

I know everybody is leaning on the Sam bandwagon, but I believe Shane's experience and better passing skills (right now) will hold off Sam for this year.

Define good? I'd define it as the offense being able to average 32-35 points a game, which is not unreasonable with the talent they have at WR and OL.

Texas, with a true freshman QB, averaged 31.9 PPG last season, and that was with a 4 game slide to end the season. Can they average 32 points at least again in 2017? Can they go up to 35+ PPG in 2017?

Texas gave up 31.5 PPG on D. Can they cut that to 25 or so and stop the run much better?

Shane, despite his 5-7 record had, statistically, an excellent true freshman season, and as we know, true freshman QB's have performed historically bad. If Texas had a much better defense and hadn't turned the ball over 6 times vs Kansas, Texas should have won at least 8 games last year imo. He got hurt and wore down, but he'll be stronger, more experienced and more mature.

If Sam earns the job, then, yes, It's a little more complicated projecting because, despite his considerable upside, intangibles and better schematic fit with this offense, he's still a true freshman.

 

[UTwiz]

I know everybody is leaning on the Sam bandwagon, but I believe Shane's experience and better passing skills (right now) will hold off Sam for this year.

Define good? I'd define it as the offense being able to average 32-35 points a game, which is not unreasonable with the talent they have at WR and OL.

Texas, with a true freshman QB, averaged 31.9 PPG last season, and that was with a 4 game slide to end the season. Can they average 32 points at least again in 2017? Can they go up to 35+ PPG in 2017?

Texas gave up 31.5 PPG on D. Can they cut that to 25 or so and stop the run much better?

Shane, despite his 5-7 record had, statistically, an excellent true freshman season, and as we know, true freshman QB's have performed historically bad. If Texas had a much better defense and hadn't turned the ball over 6 times vs Kansas, Texas should have won at least 8 games last year imo. He got hurt and wore down, but he'll be stronger, more experienced and more mature.

If Sam earns the job, then, yes, It's a little more complicated projecting because, despite his considerable upside, intangibles and better schematic fit with this offense, he's still a true freshman.

I'd love to hear the reasons you have behind the conclusion that Shane is a better passer. He certainly doesn't have a stronger arm, and his pocket presence is a big weakness. He throws a nice fade (at least before the injuries) and has good touch on the ball, but from a technical perspective, he has flaws.

 

[Ketchum]

I know everybody is leaning on the Sam bandwagon, but I believe Shane's experience and better passing skills (right now) will hold off Sam for this year.

Define good? I'd define it as the offense being able to average 32-35 points a game, which is not unreasonable with the talent they have at WR and OL.

Texas, with a true freshman QB, averaged 31.9 PPG last season, and that was with a 4 game slide to end the season. Can they average 32 points at least again in 2017? Can they go up to 35+ PPG in 2017?

Texas gave up 31.5 PPG on D. Can they cut that to 25 or so and stop the run much better?

Shane, despite his 5-7 record had, statistically, an excellent true freshman season, and as we know, true freshman QB's have performed historically bad. If Texas had a much better defense and hadn't turned the ball over 6 times vs Kansas, Texas should have won at least 8 games last year imo. He got hurt and wore down, but he'll be stronger, more experienced and more mature.

If Sam earns the job, then, yes, It's a little more complicated projecting because, despite his considerable upside, intangibles and better schematic fit with this offense, he's still a true freshman.

a. why do you believe Shane is a better passer?

b. Those offensive numbers were aided tremendously by the No.1 running back season in 20 years.

c. Shane did not have an excellent statistical season. That's just wildly untrue.

d. why do you think this offensive scheme is a better schematic fit for Shane? His intangibles are being questioned behind the scenes.

I do agree with you that he has considerable upside. Just my opinion.

 

[trophies2]

I'd love to hear the reasons you have behind the conclusion that Shane is a better passer. He certainly doesn't have a stronger arm, and his pocket presence is a big weakness. He throws a nice fade (at least before the injuries) and has good touch on the ball, but from a technical perspective, he has flaws.

I wasn't really stating definitively that Shane is the better passer, as in that's it, competition is over, it's merely based on things I've read thus far from multiple outlets.

Shane is the more accurate passer (right now) and has a leg up on experience - a full year's worth, which isn't worthless imo. You'll notice that I did say "this year" when stating in my previous post why I thought Shane is the better passer right now. Sam has the greater physical tools. No doubt. However, a year of strength building should've improved Shane's his arm strength. You don't have to have John Elway's arm in college. Additionally, the WR's will not line up as wide in Herman's offense as they did in Gilbert's. At least he hasn't at Ohio State and Houston. It's possible he could adopt some of that, but it would be some, if at all.

Even I agree that Sam has greater potential than Shane and will push Shane big time in Summer and Fall - which is a great thing for both. I just think Shane's experience and slightly better accuracy (again, right now) and his familiarity with throwing to the WR's will give him the edge this year. Emphasis on this year.

I fully acknowledge that Sam could show rapid progress this summer and fall and win the job outright, and more power to him if he does. I'm not on team Shane or anti-Sam. I'm just trying to look at the situation as logically as I can.

I honestly believe, regardless of who wins the job, that the position will be in solid hands and not be a liability.

 

[UTwiz]

I wasn't really stating definitively that Shane is the better passer, as in that's it, competition is over, it's merely based on things I've read thus far from multiple outlets.

Shane is the more accurate passer (right now) and has a leg up on experience - a full year's worth, which isn't worthless imo. You'll notice that I did say "this year" when stating in my previous post why I thought Shane is the better passer right now. Sam has the greater physical tools. No doubt. However, a year of strength building should've improved Shane's his arm strength. You don't have to have John Elway's arm in college. Additionally, the WR's will not line up as wide in Herman's offense as they did in Gilbert's. At least he hasn't at Ohio State and Houston. It's possible he could adopt some of that, but it would be some, if at all.

Even I agree that Sam has greater potential than Shane and will push Shane big time in Summer and Fall - which is a great thing for both. I just think Shane's experience and slightly better accuracy (again, right now) and his familiarity with throwing to the WR's will give him the edge this year. Emphasis on this year.

I fully acknowledge that Sam could show rapid progress this summer and fall and win the job outright, and more power to him if he does. I'm not on team Shane or anti-Sam. I'm just trying to look at the situation as logically as I can.

I honestly believe, regardless of who wins the job, that the position will be in solid hands and not be a liability.

Care to post those links on Shane being more accurate? Based on the film, he's a more flawed passer for sure.

 

[trophies2]

a. why do you believe Shane is a better passer?

b. Those offensive numbers were aided tremendously by the No.1 running back season in 20 years.

c. Shane did not have an excellent statistical season. That's just wildly untrue.

d. why do you think this offensive scheme is a better schematic fit for Shane? His intangibles are being questioned behind the scenes.

I do agree with you that he has considerable upside. Just my opinion.

I just believe he will display better accuracy that Sam this year. His year's worth of experience, exposure and taking his lumps along with the good things he did don't count for nothing. Does it guarantee him anything? Obviously not. But I think it's unwise to underestimate this kid. His cool demeanor is something I really like. He has to improve his pocket presence and not get rattled, but what true freshman QB is going to be aces at that?

236-391 (passing attempts)
60.4 (completion %)
2958 (yards)
7.6 (YPA)
21 (TD's)
11 (Int.
136.0 (Rating)

That's a pretty solid statistical year for a true freshman. Excellent was probably too strong of a word, but it wasn't Godawful either.

Was he aided by the running game? Obviously, but he also was most certainly NOT aided by a lousy defense, otherwise Tom Herman isn't even hear - I'm glad he is here, so I guess I am glad they lost (after the fact) which feels weird to say, but let's be real, it's true.

I don't think I said Shane was a better fit for the Herman offense. I acknowledged that Sam fit this offense better, but I just think Shane's experience could potentially win out. I'm not fighting for this, or making a passionately plea, even though I feel like I am. I'm not on anybody's side. If Sam wins the job. Great! If Shane wins the job? Great!

As for the intangibles being questioned behind the scenes, perhaps that's just Tom trying to motivate Shane to take this job and grab hold of it - or not. Maybe he does favor Sam, and Sam will trot out there vs. Maryland.

I just think Shane is getting a bit of a bad rap. He's a competitor too, and I don't think he's just going to let Sam take the job without a fight. Should be a great competition!

 

[trophies2]

Care to post those links on Shane being more accurate? Based on the film, he's a more flawed passer for sure.

I think I read some of that on 247 and IT. I think Bobby was touting that specifically in one of his posts a week or two ago. It was just brief bits, nothing in depth if I recall. It was just based on the two workouts. I know, that's not a legitimate sample size, but i'm also referencing Shane's work last season (especially at the beginning of the year) making accurate throws the first 7 games or so before he began to wear down. I'm just making a case that I don't think Shane will go down without a fight and he's got some good qualities of his own.

I'm well aware that Sam was a very accurate passer in HS. I'm just giving Shane an edge - a slight edge I did say - right now. Sam will catch up. Of that I'm sure.

I know you fully expect Sam to win the job. That's great if he does. It means he's better than Shane as a true freshman. Awesome if that's the case!

 

[UTwiz]

I think I read some of that on 247 and IT. I think Bobby was touting that specifically in one of his posts a week or two ago. It was just brief bits, nothing in depth if I recall. It was just based on the two workouts. I know, that's not a legitimate sample size, but i'm also referencing Shane's work last season (especially at the beginning of the year) making accurate throws the first 7 games or so before he began to wear down. I'm just making a case that I don't think Shane will go down without a fight and he's got some good qualities of his own.

I'm well aware that Sam was a very accurate passer in HS. I'm just giving Shane an edge - a slight edge I did say - right now. Sam will catch up. Of that I'm sure.

I know you fully expect Sam to win the job. That's great if he does. It means he's better than Shane as a true freshman. Awesome if that's the case!

Shane shows nothing on film that says he's physically, mechanically, or technically better than Sam. In many cases, it's the opposite.

 

[trophies2]

Shane shows nothing on film that says he's physically, mechanically, or technically better than Sam. In many cases, it's the opposite.

We shall see if you're correct. If that's the case, then I'll be surprised that he beat out Shane as a true freshman, but not totally shocked either.

Both still have to prove it on the college level. As I said, I feel the position will be in good hands regardless. I don't think Shane is a bum - athletically and skill-wise, but I concede Sam fits this offense much better and has greater upside as a result.

I'm just glad Tom Herman is here - that has me more excited and confident in either case than anything. He'll make it work.

 

[UTwiz]

We shall see if you're correct. If that's the case, then I'll be surprised that he beat out Shane as a true freshman, but not totally shocked either.

Both still have to prove it on the college level. As I said, I feel the position will be in good hands regardless. I don't think Shane is a bum - athletically and skill-wise, but I concede Sam fits this offense much better and has greater upside as a result.

I'm just glad Tom Herman is here - that has me more excited and confident in either case than anything. He'll make it work.

Yes sir. I think some folks assume I think Shane sucks, which couldn't be further from the truth. Both are top 5 in the conference. I like how a mod on IT framed it today - Shane probably starts against Maryland, Sam starts the bowl game. The fun part will be what happens in between. At the end of the day, the only thing that matters is winning.

 

[trophies2]

Yes sir. I think some folks assume I think Shane sucks, which couldn't be further from the truth. Both are top 5 in the conference. I like how a mod on IT framed it today - Shane probably starts against Maryland, Sam starts the bowl game. The fun part will be what happens in between. At the end of the day, the only thing that matters is winning.

I couldn't agree more! I can't wait to see it all in action.

 

[McGuapo]

the same patriots that have had the most creative off-season in terms of acquisitions of any team in the league?

Mine was a more simplistic thought that they don't overpay for guys who don't affect the point totals in a major way. They also don't mind signing a guy for a short term use. I'm not saying the Cowboys are the patriots, but its that type of thinking and it's not over yet and I had no desire to overpay those two guys. How many points do those guys account for next year?