I literally looked at what was right in front of Texas in the article. That's the entire point.
Ketch's 10 Thoughts From the Weekend (The reality of the moment for Herman's Longhorns...)
- Thread starter Ketchum
- Start date
post of the month imo.
Rome was not built in a day.
QUOTE="94lhorn, post: 12997947, member: 124937"]Ridiculous article and tired of the over the top negativity after this game on staff, outlook, expectations etc.
Let’s be real. This program and athletic department was in complete disarray over the past five years. Patterson and Strong were disasters. Period. Complete wipeout losses (remember BYU disasters, monster losses to TCU and Iowa State, I have never seen such an inept team that loss at ND and of course Kansas), the recruiting was a joke despite some decent rankings because a lot of players never even seemed to show up and the player development was non existent.
Bring in Herman and staff and three years we are already in the second level of top teams like Penn State, Michigan, Auburn etc.
We are doing this with a third string QB as our main RB, our best WR out for most of the season, to many injuries to count and most players sophomores or younger.
It’s hard to play a real 4-3 when we have very few real D lineman. We could not recruit these type of players due in large part to the fact that Texas has been terrible at putting players into the NFL this entire decade. That is also slowly starting to change. We are now recruiting top lineman this year and top offensive lineman this year and next.
This year has been a success so far when we realize this is a major rebuild project and we are building a solid foundation for the next 15 years. This year, We are finally beating down the teams we should, we beat the two teams that beat us last year and lost by 7 points to two top five teams. And yes, we haven’t even played that well. That shows a lot to me.
We go 9-3 or 10-2 and make the CCG that is very good success. BTW, I am pretty sure this team will be just as good as the past three coaches teams in year 3 (look at records) and this staff has had to bring a team from way further back than those coaches did.
Trying to compare Herman to a Lincoln Riley or Orgeron or someone like that at this point is completely in reasonable. Those guys followed Stoops and Miles who had their programs on pretty solid footing and real talent.
No disrespect to last couple of years to Mack Brown and Charlie Strong, but the program during those times was a real embarrassment to the University.
Anyone who thinks it’s easy to bring back a program from falling into the abyss like Texas did just take a look at USC, Nebraska, Florida State or Tennessee or someone like that. We are very lucky to finally have a program being built with a real foundation and towards a spot in that first level of teams. Hopefully we don’t help derail it by knee jerk reactions and unrealistic expectations at this point in the process.[/QUOTE]
Rome was not built in a day.
QUOTE="94lhorn, post: 12997947, member: 124937"]Ridiculous article and tired of the over the top negativity after this game on staff, outlook, expectations etc.
Let’s be real. This program and athletic department was in complete disarray over the past five years. Patterson and Strong were disasters. Period. Complete wipeout losses (remember BYU disasters, monster losses to TCU and Iowa State, I have never seen such an inept team that loss at ND and of course Kansas), the recruiting was a joke despite some decent rankings because a lot of players never even seemed to show up and the player development was non existent.
Bring in Herman and staff and three years we are already in the second level of top teams like Penn State, Michigan, Auburn etc.
We are doing this with a third string QB as our main RB, our best WR out for most of the season, to many injuries to count and most players sophomores or younger.
It’s hard to play a real 4-3 when we have very few real D lineman. We could not recruit these type of players due in large part to the fact that Texas has been terrible at putting players into the NFL this entire decade. That is also slowly starting to change. We are now recruiting top lineman this year and top offensive lineman this year and next.
This year has been a success so far when we realize this is a major rebuild project and we are building a solid foundation for the next 15 years. This year, We are finally beating down the teams we should, we beat the two teams that beat us last year and lost by 7 points to two top five teams. And yes, we haven’t even played that well. That shows a lot to me.
We go 9-3 or 10-2 and make the CCG that is very good success. BTW, I am pretty sure this team will be just as good as the past three coaches teams in year 3 (look at records) and this staff has had to bring a team from way further back than those coaches did.
Trying to compare Herman to a Lincoln Riley or Orgeron or someone like that at this point is completely in reasonable. Those guys followed Stoops and Miles who had their programs on pretty solid footing and real talent.
No disrespect to last couple of years to Mack Brown and Charlie Strong, but the program during those times was a real embarrassment to the University.
Anyone who thinks it’s easy to bring back a program from falling into the abyss like Texas did just take a look at USC, Nebraska, Florida State or Tennessee or someone like that. We are very lucky to finally have a program being built with a real foundation and towards a spot in that first level of teams. Hopefully we don’t help derail it by knee jerk reactions and unrealistic expectations at this point in the process.[/QUOTE]
[/QUOTE]
lol... No one said Rome was built in a day, nor did anyone ever confuse saying Rome was built in a day when its year three. Well, almost never...
Yep
If you give Riley a new grad transfer QB and 4 new OL starters, all he's going to do is average 50 pts/game and be one of the top 5 offenses in the country.
if you give Herman a grad transfer QB and 4 new OL starters, our offense would look like the 2017 offense that couldn't even average 30 points/game.
Riley = Chess
Herman = Checkers
I suppose I've got a bit of good and bad news for the 2019 Texas Longhorns.
In a message that Tom Herman will surely support, the Texas Longhorns still have a season with their biggest goal in front of them and obtainable. The most important task that needed to be executed this season was winning the Big 12 Championship. With one conference loss, a win over Oklahoma State and the Oklahoma game out of the way, a rematch with the Sooners would open the door for this season to still represent a very successful season.
In a message that Herman will almost certainly not support, this year's Longhorns have potentially used all of their "get out of jail" cards for the rest of the season if they want to call this season a success at the turn of the year.
Save me all the "1-0" remarks because when you're 4-2 at the midway point of the season and have lost the two most important games on the entire schedule, a little big picture reality is almost certainly needed. After winning the Sugar Bowl and appearing in the Big 12 title game last season, ready or not, the expectations have increased and the demands for more are higher.
That's the job. When you get into year three as the head coach at a school like Texas, excuses or reasons (whichever way you want to label it) for not achieving the outlined definition of the words "successful season" don't really fly.
It was that way for John Mackovic. It was that way for Mack Brown. It was that way for Charlie Strong.
Hell, it might just be the most consistent thing about the Texas football program, unless you want to suggest that allowing Oklahoma to consistently dominate the Big 12 is even more consistent, at which point I'd probably allow it.
Anyways, the Longhorns now have two steps that must be taken to save this season.
a. Do what it takes to get to Dallas in December for a rematch for the Big 12 Championship Game.
b. Beat Oklahoma for the Big 12 Championship.
Anything less than both represents a disappointing season. Anything less than making it back to Dallas would represent regression. Period.
As it relates to making it back to the Big 12 Championship Game, the Longhorns are in pretty good shape, but it's going to need the kind of consistent quality that existed in September and not the below-standards production of the last two games in all three phases of the game to get it done. More than anything, beating Baylor in Waco on November 23 probably becomes the most important game remaining on the schedule because a loss would mean Texas would need at least three Baylor losses in its other final five games because of the head-to-head tie-breaker the Bears would have over the Longhorns in the event of a tie.
Given the shape of the current standings and the fact that the Longhorns are the only Big 12 "contender" that has faced Oklahoma so far this season, that game in Waco is paramount. The game in Ames is right behind it in terms of importance.
For the sake of continuing to outline what needs to happen to save this season, let's assume the Longhorns navigate the final six games successfully and make it back to Dallas for the Oklahoma rematch.
They have to win that game. For countless reasons.
It was would give Oklahoma its 147th Big 12 title, at least I think that's the number (it certainly feels that way) and it would leave Herman with a 1-4 record against the Sooners, which would include an 0-2 mark in Big 12 Championship games.
What would the stakes be should the Longhorns come up short?
That's a great question. Outside of losing the sky high spirits that have existed around the program for the last nine months and wasting one of the upper-class years of arguably the third-best quarterback in school history in the making, Herman would likely enter the most important season of his career. A high-level Texas official told me when Herman was hired that if he hadn't win a Big 12 title by year four, it would mean they hired the wrong coach.
While that might sound harsh, we're talking about a school that fired Mackovic one year after he won a Big 12 title and Strong three years into a deal. This place doesn't really do the whole failing to meet expectations thing very well. It would make the 2020 season, which would be Ehlinger's senior season, extremely critical.
We're not at any sort of a crisis moment, but we are at a reality check moment.
It's year three. The time to become the program that you project the program to be is now. Not being able to do will lead to some unrest because that's the reality of the world we live in.
No. 2 - Let's talk about Sam ...
It was three weeks ago on Monday that Orangebloods first reported the rib injury that Texas starting quarterback Sam Ehlinger has been dealing with since the early part of the season.
It's not something Ehlinger or Tom Herman has made any kind of public issue with, likely because a rib injury isn't exactly the kind of thing you want to make a public announcement on when you take the shots to the body that Ehlinger already takes.
My own sources indicated that the injury occurred during the LSU game and remained an issue over the course of the next couple of weeks going into the bye week in September, even though he played very well, which is one of the reasons why there wasn't much of a fuss about the whole situation.
Yet, going into the bye week the injury remained enough of a problem that Ehlinger was given some rest during the off-week, which is when we first reported the ongoing issue. On Thursday, I reported in the TicketCity Podcast and and in a discussion on the Orangebloods message boards that Ehlinger reportedly had been bothered by the injury in the second half of the West Virginia game. Meanwhile, Anwar Richardson reported in Thursday's War Room that Ehlinger was also dealing with some sort of shoulder injury.
Again, Ehlinger hasn't complained about any of this, but it's important to note because his numbers from the last two weeks have declined considerably from the first four games of the season.
A week after posting a season-worst 122.2 efficiency number against West Virginia (by 43.5 points), Ehlinger's posted a new season-worst efficiency number (114.8) against the Sooners.
Of course, drops had a lot to do with that number, but the naked eye could see that Ehlinger wasn't 100-percent right in that game. So much of Ehlinger's success as a player is the escapability in the pocket that makes him sometimes impossible to corral for opposing defenses. Against the Sooners, Ehlinger looked a little stiff and seemed to lack some of his natural mobility, which absolutely contributed to the nine sacks that the Longhorns gave up against the Sooners.
What's the point of all of this?
I suppose it's to point out an elephant in the room. In order to be great, Texas needs Ehlinger to be great and in the last two weeks he hasn't been great while dealing with multiple physical ailments. It's not the biggest thing in the world, but is a thing and a thing we're all going to need to keep an eye on in the coming weeks.
No. 3 - Call me crazy ...
The next time the Longhorns play the Sooners, it might be a good eye to do as well of a self-scouting job as it will be to re-scout the Sooners, as least as it relates to the Texas offense.
I'm not automatically saying that the Sooners knew what the Longhorns were doing pre-snap, but it sure seemed that way, especially when the Longhorns tried to create anything with the east-west passing game. Every time the Longhorns threw the ball into the flat, Oklahoma linebacker Kenneth Murray seemed to have a head start on the play.
As someone that has watched the Texas back alignment on almost every play for the last two years to get an idea of whether Texas is going to run or pass on each play (if the running back is lined up within a yard of Ehlinger in the backfield, it's almost always a pass play), I'd suggest the Longhorn coaching staff make every effort to make it harder for opposing defenses to know with certainty what's coming at them.
No. 4 - All Big-12 Longhorns ...
If we were to do an all-Big 12 team at the midway point in the season, these are the Longhorns that would earn first-team all-Big 12 mention:
Devin Duvernay and Sam Cosmi.
I'd ask if I'm missing anyone else, but I already know the answer to that question ... no. The fact that the Longhorns have only two true first-team all-Big 12 players at this point in the season in all three phases of the game is one of the reasons why the Longhorns haven't quite hit an elite stride this season.
No. 5 - Five Players I'm Still Thinking About 24 Hours Later ...
Anthony Cook - The only player on the Texas defense that I absolutely want to give an "attaboy" to on the defensive side of the ball is the sophomore from Houston Lamar. Playing in what would normally be Jalen Green's spot on the field, Cook not only made the biggest defensive play of the game with his forced fumble in the first quarter, but he played a winning brand of football throughout the game when he was on the field.
B.J. Foster - I thought he looked like a shell of the player I know exists inside that No. 25 jersey. Just how banged up is he right now?
Roschon Johnson - The true freshman has 216 yards rushing on 29 carries in the last two weeks, while sophomore Keaontay Ingram has rushed for 27 yards on 13 carries over the same timeframe. The Longhorn coaching staff can't wait until the third quarter this week to get him involved in the offense.
Derek Kerstetter - This makes two weeks in a row that Kerstetter has struggled in handling the players and tactics that opposing teams are throwing his way. Considering teams aren't even really bothering to attack the left side of the Texas line, Kerstetter is simply going to need to improve because the blue-print for going after this line is well-known at this point.
Zach Shackelford - For a senior captain that came into the season as a first-team all-Big 12 player, I just didn't think Shackelford played well enough on Saturday. Whether it was being unable to handle Neville Gallimore in one-on-one situations or recognizing the stunts that Oklahoma was running directly at him, Shackelford's fingerprints were all over the things that went down in the Texas backfield.
No. 6 - If I had a vote that mattered ...
1. LSU
2. Ohio State
3. Alabama
4. Oklahoma
5. Clemson
6. Wisconsin
7. Florida
8. Penn State
9. Georgia
10. Notre Dame
No. 7 – BUY or SELL …
(Sell) Coming into this season, one of the things I've liked about Herman as a CEO is his ability to make changes quickly in areas that he needed to make changes. If this season goes sideways, he won't stand pat.
(Buy) You read my mind.
(Buy) I have no evidence to give you to support this belief, but surely the insanity will end.
(Buy) I know a lot of Texas fans believe that Texas can play much better in a rematch, but I kind of feel like Oklahoma played a C+ game on offense yesterday, especially with the mistakes it made in the red zone. I was confident of a Texas win in a rematch before yesterday, but now my belief has been shaken.
(Sell) Nah ... Typically, recruitments don't change on a dime because of the outcome of a single game. What happens the rest of the season greatly matters though ...
(Sell) Nah ...
(Sell) It's more than merely scheme. It's talented-related as well.
(Sell) I don't believe that at all.
(Sell) The guys that are missing haven't exactly been tearing it up when healthy.
(Sell) No, I don't see him doing that.
(Buy) Only DeShon Elliott has been a consensus all-American since 2009, so ... yeah ...
(Sell) That's always been my mindset, though, so nothing has changed.
(Buy) Half a decade is enough time to draw some conclusions, but we're still two seasons away from that particular standard.
No. 8 – Eternal Randomness of the Spotty Sports Mind …
... Texas Tech was absolutely robbed in Waco. The Big 12 confirmed this on Sunday.
... I really thought that Ed Orgeron was going to fall on his face as the head coach for LSU and I have been 100-percent wrong in not giving him enough respect.
... Will Muschamp picked up the biggest win of his career on Saturday and it changes nothing about where that program is going as far as I can see. Consider that a one-off.
... I'm not sure what I'm supposed to say about the Dallas Cowboys other than I feel slightly stupid for drinking just a bit of the Kool-aid. I was never thinking Super Bowl, but my goodness, I thought the team was better than what we watched on Sunday.
... DeShaun Watson didn't even have his A-game on Sunday and the Texans beat the Chiefs at Arrowhead. I don't know what it means, but the Texans have regained my attention, even though I know BOB will mess it all up at some point.
... The 49ers dominated the Rams. Dominated them.
... The Browns are 2-4 and that makes me smile.
... The Eagles still haven't covered Stefan Diggs.
... What must Bryce Harper be thinking right now with the Nationals on a potential World Series run? I'm sure he's happy for his former teammates, but man ...
... When I grow up, I want to be Sadio Mane.
... Gini with the Goal of the Weekend!
No. 9 - The List: Top 10 Willie Joints ...
Taking into account all of the work over the span of decades and decades, here's a look at look at my Top 10 Willie songs, as performed by Willie.
Note: Before anyone asks, Crazy is one of my all-time favorite songs, but his version of the song isn't my favorite. Don't get me wrong, it's perfectly fine, but it doesn't make my PERSONAL top 10 list.
The key word is PERSONAL.
10. Hello Walls
9. Night Life
8. Always on my Mind
7. Whiskey River
6. Goodhearted Woman
5. Pancho and Lefty
4. Angel Flying Too Close to The Ground
3. A Song For You
2. Blue Eyes Crying in the rain
1. Seven Spanish Angels
No. 10 – And Finally ...
My favorite Texas/OU photo from this weekend came via a friend's Facebook photo. Part of me sees the world's biggest Longhorns fan and the other part of me can't stop thinking about the dog from Little Nicky.
The most maddening part of this beat down is Herman has hired three or four former head coaches to help analyzing Oklahoma schemes and prepare for the game strategy, but we looked completely unprepared. Which means that these guys are just stealing money waiting for the next coaching job, or that Orlando/Beck ignored their game plans. IMO, the former coaches are not idiots. I would love to be a fly on the wall to hear the excuses in the coaches meetings this week.
waiting till the end of the season (or after) is too late. the special teams need fixing now. tackling needs fixing now.
re 3: They sure aren’t doing a very good job of it.
re 1: you picked out the most insignificant item in that section. How many losses did you pick for this season? Also, from a macro perspective, how damaging do you think that it really is from a macro perspective that we lost to two top 5 teams by 14 points? You’ve said it doesn’t affect recruiting. How does it affect us? Engage.
re 2: Sam was off on Saturday, clearly, but the dude can only do so much. The WV game, it took a full quarter for the entire team to settle down. I’d argue that the game was as close as it was because of the stubbornness of playing Ingram versus Ro which stalled the offense. Microcosm of that is the 3rd quarter versus near end of it when they played at different times. Under 2 yds per carry versus 8. This takes pressure off by buying time and making the offense multi-dimensional. It just can’t all be on Sam. He’s absolutely key but the team is degrading around him.
No one is talking about the support staff and this is a good point. Makes it even more mind boggling to see that game plan doesn’t it?
re: I think this team goes 9-3 and plays in the Big 12 title game. Still. That was my prediction before the season.
re 2: Correct, it cannot be all on Sam.
Unfortunately, that would be 9-3, and I would consider that a failure based on the fact that we never beat OU.
@Ketchum
Belated B/S: OU is a better team this year than last year?
We are NOT a better team than last year?
I think the answers to both these questions is BUY and I think the reason is the same, defense. OU's is miles better than their D last year and ours is much, much worse. We lost too many starters and expected to keep right on rolling. Add injuries to the strength of our D (secondary) and the squad we rolled out on D at the Cotton Bowl this year doesn't hold a candle to last year.
Belated B/S: OU is a better team this year than last year?
We are NOT a better team than last year?
I think the answers to both these questions is BUY and I think the reason is the same, defense. OU's is miles better than their D last year and ours is much, much worse. We lost too many starters and expected to keep right on rolling. Add injuries to the strength of our D (secondary) and the squad we rolled out on D at the Cotton Bowl this year doesn't hold a candle to last year.
CTH isn't easy to like....if he's not winning.
If he's winning, I can tolerate him.
He is a less prickish John Mackovic.
I was convinced of this about midway through the first quarter. Yes, OU outplayed us in a lot of ways. But these are mostly the same guys that couldn't stop anything last year. As a thought exercise for those who think this is paranoid: if OU absolutely WERE stealing our offensive calls, how would they have looked any different than they did?
I think it's unfair to paint this in a "Ketch has never been a big Herman fan."
My job isn't to be a fan.
I don't get into being a fan or not, I just commentate on what I see and often use my experience to help frame that.
I think Herman is a very good football coach. I think he does some excellent CEO stuff. I don't know if he's elite.
That doesn't mean I somehow wasn't a fan. There are definite haters in this market with regards to TH, but I don't consider myself such a thing at all.
Hell, I want him to win. It's really, really, really good for business.
The single quick fix is getting the OL to play as well as it did earlier in the year. We don't have the same injury/inexperience issues on the OL that we have in the secondary. When our OL is playing well, our offense moves and scores, Sam plays like a better QB, and even when the defense gives up scores, everyone has the feeling we can outscore the opponent.
Ketch hit on a very good point about analyzing our offensive pre-snap tells. We also need to analyze our over-reliance on the same pass patterns on 3d downs.
One quick fix for the secondary could be to train our DBs to hold receivers' trailing arms like OU does. If we're going to give up a 15 yeard completion anyway, why not gamble that some B12 ref will believe the hold is just hand sparring. Of course our DBs will need to get close enough to prospective receivers to be able to do that.
Ketch hit on a very good point about analyzing our offensive pre-snap tells. We also need to analyze our over-reliance on the same pass patterns on 3d downs.
One quick fix for the secondary could be to train our DBs to hold receivers' trailing arms like OU does. If we're going to give up a 15 yeard completion anyway, why not gamble that some B12 ref will believe the hold is just hand sparring. Of course our DBs will need to get close enough to prospective receivers to be able to do that.
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His track record. Herman was won big games previously (against OU and FSU while at Houston and against OU and Georgia at Texas). Orgeron has been extremely mediocre his entire career as a head coach until this year when the stars aligned with a high level QB and a new offensive philosophy. To me, it's that simple. The offensive genius shine is wearing off Herman and he needs help.
My post wasn't intended for you. I was replying to Patrick Bateman.
I have the capacity to formulate my own opinions.
I was just following/continuing the conversation. I know you weren't talking to me.
Totally agree - but I also think that we could get a wizz-kid on offense to make things happen with the personnel we have.
In that case, you could have edited it to, ‘songs performed by Willie.’ — your friendly J Major and former newspaper city editor.
Serious question: Did they prove it by beating us or Florida? I'm not sure we are much of a huckleberry for any opponent's strength of schedule bumff.
Fred was just stupidly stubborn. He did not have a conceit about him.
CTH thinks he is the smartest guy in the room. Like J Mackovic.
I hope you're not referring to the complacent UT Administration that let Mack Brown hang around way too long and reportedly wouldn't have fired Charlie Strong after 3 weak years if he hadn't lost to Kansas.
The Longhorn football program is a textbook example of an entity with huge advantages that gets continually out-performed because of its own institutional complacency.
It is clear that we don't spend enough on athletics. Our coaches are ALL short-handed in resources and advantages.
"Assume" is one thing. But to me - "believe" is another.
If the owner/operator of this website doesn't believe this team, or any future team led by this coach, will ever win a National Championship - I'm sorry but that sort of rubs me the wrong way. I feel if that's the case, then what's the purpose of ever reading OB's columns or takes regarding this program, if at the end of the day there's no belief that this program will ever accomplish its ultimate goal.
In another words, if you don't believe, why should I? And if I don't believe, then why pay you subscription for intel? We might as well go back to the Charlie Strong days.
@Ketchum please elaborate... are you truly stating that you don't "believe" Texas will ever win a National Championship under Tom Herman? Not "assume," because that implies taking for granted. I'm talking about a "belief" that Herman can eventually get it done...
