Blue isn’t really a good example for the rest of the mass of guys that will never contribute in a meaningful way. It’s cherry picking and with a guy that isn’t quite like the others.
Ketch's 10 Thoughts From The Weekend (Time to do away with the scratch-offs...)
- Thread starter Ketchum
- Start date
Ketch, you analysis tonight of the Roster was the best article I have read on OB maybe all year ! Thank you / thank you / thank you ! Also, who is Gary Stewart ? As a big music fan who has lived in Texas since 1969 I have no clue nor do I recognize songs 1 - 10. I guess I’ve been missing some talented musician.
I've got a buddy of mine that loves scratch-off lottery tickets.
Almost from the day he was legally old enough to buy them, he's been obsessed. He's won big a couple of times and I know that he'll call me a couple of times a year to let me know about it. More times than not, he loses. A lot.
About a decade ago, I had him track his wins and losses on a sheet of paper for a week and it wasn't pretty. I remember telling him that the entire enterprise isn't designed for him to come out ahead. He seemed to realize that he was playing the role of a sucker. Intellectually, he understood everything.
Yes, he still plays. Every time I bring up the con game, he'll remind me about the $1,000 he won once. When I point out to him that he probably spent it all away in a matter of weeks on more tickets, he'll tell me that it's fun. No amount of me trying to convince him that there's a better way to invest his money, time and emotional outlets is ever going to change his behavior.
It might be that way with my revolutionary thoughts on roster-building in college football for a national heavyweight program like Steve Sarkisian's Texas Longhorns.
For years I've been trying to educate the world on the realities of the pseudoscience that is college football recruiting and I know that it's boring for a lot of my readers and that a lot of you just tune me out. Finding a way to make the unscientific a little more scientific has become an obsession of mine.
Along the way, I believe I've stumbled into a number of ideas that are wildly unconventional, but point in a direction that I believe will lead to a more optimal way of program building at the highest levels of the sport. Yet, I'm clearly not doing a good enough job of explaining my thoughts to my Orangebloods audience because I found myself this weekend struggling to convince some of you of the very basics of my ever-evolving belief system.
I simply must explain this better at every step.
This week's column is my attempt to do so.
No. 2 - Let's start with the primary objective ...
In a sport that is often defined by very small margins, I'm trying to gain some small margins.
Simple as that.
Unlike so many of my previous content pieces, this really doesn't have much to do with elite of the elite prospects. Instead, the focus in this column is making small gains in the middle to back of the roster in a sport that affords 85 scholarship players for every program in the country and a travel squad of 70 players.
If you take a look at last season's 2023 Big 12 championship team that made it to the national semi-finals, less than 70 percent of the roster played in more than six games, which means that a percentage of the roster that is roughly the size of a full recruiting class didn't contribute to the cause.
The overwhelming majority of the 30 percent of the roster that didn't have an impact on the 2023 season will never have an impact on Texas football, let alone a meaningful impact. It's almost entirely dead weight. While an occasional diamond will emerge from the 30 percent, more than 80 percent of that number will transfer without ever sniffing the two-deep.
My assertion is that getting more out of the players in the No. 60-70 range on the roster could be the difference between a 9-3 team becoming a 10-2 team. Or a 10-2 team becoming an 11-1 team. Or a one-score loss turning into a one-score win.
None of these players will start many games. We're talking about adding guys that will do the following ...
a. Improve depth in critical areas.
b. Improve special teams
c. Make the roster a little more disaster-proof.
In the world of the NFL where every team is able to suit up 53 players each week, imagine giving a coach like Bill Belichick or Mike Shanahan or Andy Reid a five-player advantage to work with each week. Would it make a difference every week and in every game? Probably not. Would there be a few games over the course of a long season when those extra players could make critical contributions?
I would argue yes.
No. 3 - Making a big, important first point ...
Here's a look at the two-deep going into August and the number of seasons that it took for those players to make significant contributions (play seven or more games in a season) or project as players on the two-deep going into the 2024 season.
QB: Quinn Ewers (5-star transfer - Immediate)/Arch Manning (5-star recruit/2nd season)
RB: C.J. Baxter (High 4 star recruit/Immediate)/Jaydon Blue (Low 4 star recruit/2nd season)
WR (Z): Johntay Cook (5-star Recruit/Immediate)/Silas Bolden (High 3 star transfer (Immediate)
WR (slot): Isaiah Bond (Mid 4 star transfer/Immediate)/ DeAndre Moore (Mid 4-star recruit/Immediate)
WR (X): Ryan Wingo (High 4-star recruit/Immediate)/Matthew Golden (Low 4-star transfer/Immediate)
TE: Gunnar Helm (Low 4-star recruit/Immediate)/Amari Niblack (Mid 4 star transfer/Immediate)
LT: Kelvin Banks (High 4 star recruit/Immediate)/Trevor Goosby (High 3 star recruit/2nd season)
LG: Hayden Conner (High 3 star recruit/Immediate)/Cole Hutson (Low 4 star recruit/Immediate)
C: Jake Majors (Low 4 star recruit/Immediate)/Hayden Conner (High 3 star recruit/Immediate)
RG: D.J. Campbell (5 star recruit/Immediate)/Neto Umeozulu (Mid 4-star recruit/3rd season)
RT: Cam Williams (Low 4 star recruit/Immediate)/Brandon Baker (5-star recruit/Immediate)
Of the 21 players listed on the projected two-deep on offense (Hayden Connor is listed in two spots), 17 made immediate impacts in their respective Texas careers and three made significant contributions and/or made the two-deep in their second seasons. Only one player (Umeozulu) needed until his third season to qualify as a significant contributor/projected member of the two-deep.
Now let's do the defense ...
SDE (Jack): Barryn Sorrell (High 3 star recruit/Immediate)/Ethan Burke (Low 4 star recruit/Immediate)
NT: Bill Norton (High 3 star transfer/Immediate)/Vernon Broughton (Mid 4 star prospect/2nd season)
DT: Alfred Collins (Low 4 star/Immediate)/Jermayne Lole (Mid 3-star transfer/Immediate)
Edge (Buck): Trey Moore (Low 4 star transfer/Immediate)/Colin Simmons (5-star recruit/Immediate)
MLB: Anthony Hill (5 star recruit/Immediate)/Liona Lefau (Low 4-star recruit/Immediate)
WLB: David Gbenda (Low 4 star recruit/2nd season)/Mo Blackwell (High 3 star recruit/Immediate)
CB: Malik Muhammad (High 4 star recruit/Immediate)/Kobe Black (High 4 star recruit/Immediate)
Safety: Andrew Mukuba (Low 4 star transfer/Immediate)/Michael Taaffe (NR recruit/2nd season)
Safety: Derek Williams (High 4 star recruit/Immediate)/Jelani McDonald (High 4 star recruit/Immediate)
Nickel: Jahdae Barron (Mid 3 star/2nd season)/Jaylon Guilbeau (Mid 4-star/Immediate)
CB: Jay'Vion Cole (High 3 star transfer/Immediate)/Gavin Holmes (Mid 3 star transfer/Immediate)
Of the 22 players listed on the projected two-deep on defense, 18 made immediate impacts in their respective Texas careers and four made significant contributions and/or made the two-deep in their second seasons. Not a single player on the projected two-deep needed until a third season to emerge as a member of the two-deep or contribute in the majority of games.
Why is all of this important?
When we talk about the bottom 30 percent of the roster that isn't contributing to the real-time cause, very few players (less than three in any single season) are emerging as impactful players when needing at least a third season to emerge as a contributor. In fact, 81.4 percent of the current two deep for the Longhorns across all positions on both sides of the ball were immediate impact performers.
What that means is there's not actually any special value to the bottom 25-30 players on the Texas roster in any given year. That becomes even more the case as Sarkisian and his staff continue to load the program with the kind of high-end talent at the top of the roster that hasn't existed in half a generation.
No. 4 – How would this impact the 2024 Longhorns and last year's national semi-finalists ...
Before getting into the guts of this section, I need to make a couple of really important statements that are intertwined.
a. The current Texas roster going into the season isn't so good that it can't be tweaked a little more and slightly upgraded.
b. Not every transfer that Texas could/should bring into the program needs to be an absolute starter.
Those two statements out of the way, if I was in charge of the program I think I'd like the following additions:
* A veteran tight end piece for depth
* A veteran interior offensive lineman to provide depth and maybe push Hayden Conner for the starting right tackle job.
* A veteran middle linebacker to back up Anthony Hill and provide protection against Lefau not being ready for primetime.
* A veteran punter to serve as an insurance policy against Michael Kern not being ready for primetime.
* Two or three veteran special teams performers that can serve roles in multiple phases of special teams.
Three more statements that need to be made:
a. These players don't have to be better than the starters on the Texas roster. The tight end needs to be better than Juan Davis. The offensive lineman needs to be better than Neto Umeozulu. The middle linebacker merely needs to have more experience than Lefau. The punter simply needs to have a strong pulse.
b. These players are actually available. The Portal is flooded with players better than the 60th-70th best players on the Texas roster and there for the taking. Many of them entered the Portal looking to make a bunch of cash and upgrade their lot in football life, only to find that the market is more limited than they expected. Having a lifeline thrown to them by one of the top programs in the SEC, while potentially making just a little NIL money (let's say $100K vs. none) is an opportunity that will interest quite a few players, especially ones humbled by the bull market they've found themselves in.
c. Almost all of these players could/should be seniors with one season of eligibility remaining, so that they can be replaced from an accounting standpoint in every recruiting class that follows. Special cases can be made for player options that warrant extra consideration.
The bottom line for the 2024 Longhorns is that an injury to one of the team’s top two tight ends would be a problem for a team that likes to use two of those guys a lot. The guard position could be upgraded, especially from a depth standpoint. This team absolutely needs a more proven backup behind its most important defensive player (Hill). No one can say with certainty that Kern is going to be ready for Ann Arbor in week two of the season. Also, the special teams can never have enough good players on them.
You can't tell me that having those pieces in place wouldn't make this team better going into the 2024 season.
While we're having this discussion, let's revisit the 2023 Longhorns.
In a year when Sarkisian took only five transfers and had a team go to the playoffs, what kind of potential difference would have been made if he had taken 10 transfers and they might have included ...
* At least one more cornerback to compete for a starting spot and provide depth
* At least two safeties without shoulder problems that could compete with a bunch of players the coaches were unhappy with.
* An interior offensive lineman that could challenge for the left guard spot.
* At least one bad-ass special teams player to help coverage units.
Considering the team had one of the worst pass defenses in the country, you can make the case that a more aggressive attitude similar to the one the program has had this season in trying to upgrade the defensive tackle position might have made the difference between playing in the national title game and not. With all due respect to Jalen Catalon (who was a complete waste of time), adding players to upgrade a frustrating at best (and miserable at worst) group of players in the back end of the defense might have been the difference between beating Washington and not beating them.
Also, the play in the interior of the offensive line could have been better. Period. We all know that. In fact, everyone is still hoping that an upgrade emerges at left guard, somehow ... some way. Both at the starting position and chief reserve.
No. 5 – So, what's the answer?
The Longhorns enter the 2024 season with 17 seniors on the roster and no more COVID seasons to use. There are 18 scheduled seniors for the 2025 season.
Given that almost every power five program in the country suffered 20+ pieces of attrition and the Longhorns have had at least 12 pieces of attrition for the last eight seasons and no less than 19 pieces of attrition in the last three seasons, it's probably a safe bet that the Longhorns will have 30 scholarships to work with.
Here is what I would propose as the new set of guidelines/rules for Texas recruiting.
a. We're ending the concept of taking 25 high school players each year in recruiting. It's antiquated. It's wasteful. It's hustling backward. Twenty is the new magic number.
b. We need to assume that Sarkisian having a desire to smartly use 11 scholarships this year through the Portal isn't a one-time deal. There needs to be an annual desire to improve any and every fine margin possible, which means that we're reserving at least 10 spots annually to the Portal. In seasons when the available scholarship number is 30+, every single scholarship above 30 will be reserved for the Portal.
c. Outside of offensive linemen (and I'm not totally sure this exception should be made) and quarterbacks, no offer will be extended to a player that isn't projected to be on the two-deep by the end of his second season.
d. Extra consideration will be given to players that can come in and make an immediate impact on special teams.
So, where does that leave us?
Well, if Texas is recruiting like Texas has recruited in each of the last two recruiting cycles, it should look like this:
* Between 10-12 nationally elite prospects that should be rated as a super blue chip prospect by at least one major recruiting service. Texas currently has two such prospects: QB K.J. Lacey (Rivals) and DE Lance Jackson (247/On3), so the coaches have a lot of work to do.
* A minimum of 10 additions through the Portal that will add potential starters, key depth pieces and special teams upgrades
* Another 8-10 high school prospects that project to be meaningful contributors in two seasons or less.
No. 6 - An eye on the 2025 Portal ...
Although it's next to impossible to completely have a sense of what the Texas roster will look like going into the 2025 off-season because of unknown NFL departures and yearly attrition, the current scholarship board, the projected two-deep and the totality of 2025 recruiting will give you a sense of the areas that Texas should already be focused on addressing behind the scenes.
Here are the areas I would emphasize the most (in order of importance) …
* Possibly as many as three defensive tackles to replace the five seniors that are set to depart following the season.
This is all that's currently slated to be left following this season at defensive tackle: Jaray Bledsoe, Aaron Bryant, Sydir Mitchell, Alex January and Melvin Hills.
a. I don't expect any of those players to have major impacts this season.
b. I don't expect all of those players to return after this season.
c. I don't know that any of those guys can be counted on at this point.
d. The 2025 recruiting class doesn't currently look like it's going to provide anyone that is a sure-thing immediate contributor.
* At least one starting-level interior offensive lineman.
It's possible that the Longhorns could be replacing the entire projected starting offensive line going into the 2025 season and while I'm semi-comfortable with the possible tackle tandem in play (Trevor Goosby and Brandon Baker), I'm not sure that there's a single interior lineman that I feel 100-percent comfortable with if D.J. Campbell leaves for the NFL. Maybe a couple of young guys take steps forward, but risks in the Arch Manning era need to be minimized as much as possible.
* At least one other interior offensive lineman that can provide depth and potentially emerge as a starter.
I can't emphasize enough that the players behind Campbell and Conner are pretty uninspiring at the moment. Texas needs to be incredibly aggressive in eliminating offensive line risk going into the 2025 season.
* A veteran tight end
Even if Amari Niblack returns for the 2025 season (no sure thing), there's not a lot of meat on the bone at a position of importance in the Sarkisian offense. There might be some dynamic young talent in the pipeline pretty soon, but the bridge between 2025 and when that young talent is truly ready to carry a heavy load will need to be built.
* At least one starting-level weakside linebacker to replace the departing David Gbenda and Mo Blackwell.
* A least another veteran linebacker to give the Longhorns added depth at WLB and MLB. The depth at this position simply isn't good enough.
* A place-kicker to replace Bert Auburn.
* A starting-level slot wide receiver (if Isaiah Bond leaves for the NFL) to compete with DeAndre Moore and provide insurance/depth at that position.
Without even getting into my desire to add special teams dynamos through the Portal on an annual basis, we're sitting at 9-10 needed pieces through the Portal pretty easily.
No. 7 - A few more football thoughts to chew on ...
... The announcement by LSU that it will be giving out loyalty points to NIL donors is a really big deal and I'm told that UT officials will meet on Monday to discuss the rollout of a model that will be very similar for UT donors. From what I've been told, LSU will collect the funds and then distribute it to the collective. All donors will have a chance to decide whether to donate to the general fund or to a specific sport.
... The more I find myself thinking about the Texas wide receiver rotation, the more I believe that we're going to see Isaiah Bond play a lot in the slot, which is where played 60 percent of his snaps last season at Alabama. That would allow Ryan Wingo to get the snaps at the X-spot that they want to give him, while allowing Johntay Cook and Silas Bolden to battle it out for playing time at Z. There's a part of me that thinks the staff kept Bond out of the slot in the spring because it didn't want to spook DeAndre Moore into the Portal. Now that the Portal doesn't open up again, they can move Bond into the slot without the risk of losing Moore before December. If Bond is truly a one-and-done player, then Moore would once again project as the starter at slot with Arch Manning coming aboard ... and as frustrated as Moore might be, what would be the point of a transfer?
... With the commitment of Ty Haywood to Alabama on Sunday, there are only five uncommitted in-state super blue chips from my personal rankings: OL Michael Fasusi, DB Jonah Williams, WR Kaliq Lockett, TE Nick Townsend and Ath Michael Terry.
No. 8 – BUY or SELL …
(Sell) While I think it will prove to be an aid, I'm not sure it's the difference between Texas winning or losing in the games that will define the regular season.
(Buy) Texas currently has 14 commitments and only one is a consensus super blue chip.
(Buy) It's home and always will be. I think my family started to feel that this week for the first time.
(Sell) I don't get that sense at all.
(Sell) More than ANYTHING? No, I don't believe that.
(Sell) Technically, I had him as a low-four star. Young players with his physical profile rarely pan out, so I understand his ranking (which was a consensus in the recruiting industry), but it's a reminder of what can potentially happen when they go boom. At the end of the day, he hasn't panned out ... yet.
(Sell) Never give up on super blue chip in-state prospects. That's what quitters do.
(Buy) I really like that trio. I also think having Moore and Johnson in the same trio is kind of a waste because both profile as similar type players.
(Sell) I'll take the under ... very slightly. I think he'll be a double-digit type guy for the two seasons that follow if that makes you feel better.
(Buy) Nobody cares and is keeping score outside of bored sportswriters who can't be creative enough to write about a topic that actually matters.
(Sell) Texas will get two mulligans this season without losing a spot in the 12-team playoff. It could lose two of those three games and still be fine in that respect.
(Buy/Sell) Townsend is going to be a really, really good pick-up, but I don't think the 2024 team will enter the season as a superior unit to the 2023 team.
(Sell) I've never thought that would happen.
No. 9 – Scattershooting all over the place …
... Bring on The Olympics!
... The world is a better place when Novak Djokovic loses a final. Yes, I am a hater.
... I freaking love Bryce Harper. I feel lucky to root for a team that he plays on.
... Paul Skenes will have my attention on Tuesday when he starts the all-star game. Can he come close to repeating what Pedro Martinez did in 1999 when he struck out five of six batters? I'm setting a high bar, but I'd like to see him put on a show. By the way, those five batters that Pedro struck out were Barry Larkin, Larry Walker, Jeff Bagwell, Sammy Sosa and Mark McGuire.
... Spain was a deserving champion at the Euro, but there's a part of me that feels for Harry Kane. He really has to think it's him at this point,
... Yes, I enjoyed the hell out of the third-place Copa America game. Luis Suarez can still do Luis Suarez things. What a moment in what will likely be his last appearance for his national team.
... Say what you want about Caitlin Clark and Angel Reese, but they have risen to the challenge of lifting their sport to new heights. Is there anyone else in sports quite doing what those two are doing?
... The new Kevin Costner movie "Horizon: An American Saga - Chapter 1" was really good. In fact, my wife loved it and wanted the movie to keep going after three hours. I'd give it 3 out of 4 stars and will withhold a final opinion until I can see the full spectacle, but it's hard to wrap my head around the fact that it felt more like prestige TV than an actual film, mostly because the movie doesn't end in the type of conventional way that most movies end, even trilogies like Lord of the Rings. I hope this thing doesn't completely fall on its face.
... Bless her.
... Hawk Tuah Girl is being called Gen Z's Dolly Parton and she lives with her grandma.
... Rest in peace and comfort, Richard Simmons, Jacoby Jones, Dr. Ruth and Shannen Doherty
No. 10 – The List: Gary Stewart …
In honor of SEC Media Days beginning on Monday, I thought we focus on an artist that was from the heart of SEC country (Jenkins, Kentucky) and was known as the King of Honkytonk.
He's also the artist that closed things at Dallas Night Club for what must have been 100s of appearances by yours truly from 2000-2010. The fact that my mom was friends with him in the 80s and I ended up loving his music a few decades later is kind of poetic.
Last 5 Out: Brand New Whiskey, In Some Room Above the Street, Cactus and a Rose, Single Again and Little Junior
10. I See the Want To in Your Eyes
Conway Twitty heard Stewart sing this song on the radio in Oklahoma and decided to record it for himself. It became a No. 1 song for Twitty.
9. Quits
I've listened to this song off of his greatest hits album at least 5,000 times.
8 You're Not The Woman You Used to Be
This is less Honky Tonk and more pure classic country the way the greats meant it to be.
7. Flat Natural Born Good-Timin' Man
My mom's favorite song from Stewart. "I did some high-stepping to this!" she declared this afternoon when I asked her about it.
6. Your Place or Mine
A favorite of Bob Dylan's.
5. Whiskey Trip
One of the best songs ever recorded about Whiskey.
4. Out of Hand
Random thought: I think I went to at least a half-dozen shows where Stewart was either two hours late or completely no-showed.
3. Drinkin' Thing
The debut song from his classic album Out of Hand.
2. She's Actin' Single (I'm Drinkin' Doubles)
A strong case can be made that this is his true No. 1 because it was the biggest hit of his career, but there's another that I simply cannot ignore.
1. An Empty Glass
The song symbolizes an era of my life with a specific group of friends that will represent some of the best times of my entire life. It's one of the great all-time songs about drunken loneliness.
This is where your very logical mathematical plan has a flaw. To get 8-10 second level players that will be on the two deep by their second season you have to take twice that many and see who pans out. There will be misses as there always has been.
Yes, I
cherry pi
Yes, I cherry picked but truly believe anyone on the 3rd string that is not a freshman is developmental or a waste of a scholarship. It comes down to what is best for the culture then who contributes now.
Sark and CDC should hire you as their chief analytics coach.
I have no doubt, and am totally serious. Your numbers have consistently spoken for your credibility.
Love you Sark. Love you CDC. But please, put this man on your payroll.
Quietly.
I have no doubt, and am totally serious. Your numbers have consistently spoken for your credibility.
Love you Sark. Love you CDC. But please, put this man on your payroll.
Quietly.
There’s no requirement to sacrifice culture in order to do it.
My favorite top 10 number one song you have done. GREAT SONG!
Can you answer some WR questions?
How do you feel about Tuesday with Johnson? He would help ease the pain of Moore to me with a top speed WR.
Why does Texas not seems to want Marsh as bad as I do?
Will Texas land 2 of it's top 3 WR targets left out there?
The GM position needs to be filled by someone with vast NFL front office experience for a number of reasons.
But, thanks!
Every once in a while, I have to prove my diversity of music.
I do understand any calls for She's Actin Single to be No.1.
I feel like from the time I was 6 until the time I was 10, Stewart was headlining at Okey Dokie's in Waco at least once per month. HIs name was always on the marquee.
You want to completely waste the bottom 30% of the scholarships allowed every year. Got it.
1. I feel like sometimes they do the opposite of my research to spite me.
2. Unreal human jet ski moment.
3. I can totally see that it not being someone's cup of tea.
To allow my wife to be close to her family, especially after COVID. Her grandmother lives 5 minutes away.
People hate change.
His post didn't come across as one that really read the full column.
