Ketch's 10 Thoughts From the Weekend (What the UT QB situation really looks like...)
- Thread starter Ketchum
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Yes but it can't be completely ignored. Everyone saw a noticeable drop in his performance over the last couple of games. C'mon, he was a true freshman and had better stats than Colt did as a redshirt freshman. Let's put it all out on the table.
The Jericho Sims high school highlights were entertaining but it looked like he was playing against a bunch of midgets there. He won't get those kinds of dunks in college. I would much rather see a consistent mid range jump shot. That would go a long way to picking up our program.
Agreed. SB doesn't make that run for that score late in the NC game. Hurts is ALWAYS a threat with his legs, not to mention Hurts has a much more developed body at this time.
A. It's fair to compare Buechele against other freshman QBs.a. You can't really believe that those two players are the same thing... Come on...
b. Did you read the article? Maybe this section?
If you’re thinking that I’m trying to take a shot at Buechele by pointing these facts out, you’re sorely mistaken. As I’ve said repeatedly, I think he has all-Big 12 and championship upside. On top of that, I’ve never heard anyone say a bad thing about the young man and I ranked him as the No.10 prospect in the state in my 2016 rankings.
I feel like everyone skipped right past that part.
B. Obviously, I read that section, which is why I defended you
Sorry but I guess I don't see the point in letting a true freshman QB play on a bad team and criticizing his stats after the season. How about what stats did you predict, or did you deem would be a positive sign in August? Somehow, 3000 passing yards and 21/11 is now not good enough for a true freshman. That's some bar, eh?
Why not compare him with other true freshman starters? How did 5 star Jacob Eason do? Somehow I bet this discussion isn't taking place on their sites, I wonder why. So @Ketchum what did you expect of Shane prior? Nobody is saying let's go nuts about having our prodigy at QB, but I am saying find ways to acknowledge how difficult it is for a TRUE freshman to come in and be statistically a great QB. Or find ways to show what Shane did was highly impressive. Pointing out up and down play and inconsistencies is redundant to me because we should have always expected that.
Why not compare him with other true freshman starters? How did 5 star Jacob Eason do? Somehow I bet this discussion isn't taking place on their sites, I wonder why. So @Ketchum what did you expect of Shane prior? Nobody is saying let's go nuts about having our prodigy at QB, but I am saying find ways to acknowledge how difficult it is for a TRUE freshman to come in and be statistically a great QB. Or find ways to show what Shane did was highly impressive. Pointing out up and down play and inconsistencies is redundant to me because we should have always expected that.
This is such a huge point. How hurt was Boo the last 5 - 6 games? If the answer is not anymore than half the QBs playing in D1 halfway through a season, then we need to have a serious QB competition this Spring.
The sibling question is: how much did Gilbert's offensive scheme/play calling get punked the last half of the year after Big 12 D's had the chance to see a bunch of film on it? This is point 2 on the serious QB competition decision front.
We have to accept that our offense was just plain bad the last half of the year and Boo was right in the middle of that badness. And if that badness cannot be accurately tied to a Boo Injury and Gilbert's O failure then we have not fixed our QB problem.
By the way, did Gilbert's O really get punked by a conference full of mediocre Ds after being hailed as one of the great young offensive minds in college football? I'd like to see some analysis and reporting on that topic again.
The point of this column is to show that the drop wasn't related to injuries. It was a season-long theme after the first two games.
He didn't really play well against any of the best teams in the schedule.
Sacrilege!!="RLong68, post: 8394892, member: 15202"]The sell off of Buechele stock is quite humorous. And you greatly are over rating Austin.[/QUOTE]
Sacrilege! ! The part about Austin. The QB situation will play itself out on the field.
Sacrilege! ! The part about Austin. The QB situation will play itself out on the field.
Hurts was SEC Offensive Player of the Year.
Buechele didn't beat a winning team and was substandard in at least seven of his last 10 games.
This conversation is close to jumping the shark.
He played well in the first 2 games, when he was injury free. His first boo boo came in game 3 at Cal, and he was up and down from there.
Probably just a coincidence, imo.
How about I complete the picture for you:
1) D'Onta Foreman carried Texas' running game with over 2,000 rushing yards. Alabama RB Damien Harris barely cracked 1,000 yards. Gilbert wanted Foreman and Swoopes to run the ball, not Buechele.
2) Hurts had 191 rushing attempts. Buechele had 97 attempts. Again, they're different.
3) Feel free to factor in Sterlin Gilbert vs. Lane Kiffin. I get the feeling Tom Herman/Tim Beck won't make the same play-calling mistakes.
That's why it's fair to compare passing numbers, which shows Buechele was on par with a freshman QB who was competing for a national title.
Ok, but include all of the data, especially when comparing Buechele to a supreme run threat.
Frankly, he's the last quarterback Buechele should probably be compared to because it's hard to quantify the different Hurts' main strength brings to the table.
It would be like comparing Vince Young to Matt Leinert and never discussing the elephant in the room that would be VY's legs.
You pretty much avoided my point. Switch the 2 QBs and if you think the teams' fates substantially change then not sure what to tell you.
Let me just work my way through the points and responses one by one.
a. I'm not criticizing his stats. I merely revealed them.
b. I'm not sure what pre-season predictions have to do with the discussion.
c. It's not the 3,000 yards and 21/11 that isn't enough, it's the 1.5/1.0 over the final 10 games that proves to be a bigger issue moving forward.
d. Perhaps I will compare him with other freshmen starters. The eventual bar isn't freshman numbers. For what was trying to show, that data is mostly useless in the discussion.
e. Jacob Eason doesn't matter in this discussion. Jalen Hurts doesn't either. What matters is the bar that needs to be reached. That bar has no bias and it doesn't care about names/feelings. It's just a non-emotional data point.
f. Other sites don't usually do the type of hard core analysis that we often specialize in. This is one of the reasons why we trump other sites significantly, You should maybe ask those other sites why they don't do more of this type of analysis. This article made you a smarter fan if you read the entire first section.
g. I feel like you completely ignored all of the positive things I wrote. Can you copy and paste that section, so that I can know for sure you did?
It's impossible to know how much was the chicken and how much was the egg. We're not going to know a lot of answers, if any, before the season starts.
It's important to note that the staff believed behind the scenes that they needed to protect Buechele in a variety of ways, but how that limited what the offense could truly be is hard to tell.
I believe the staff limited areas of the field from Buechele to limit the mistakes he would make. I'm not sure they ever truly trusted him and he didn't earn it over the long-term.
Or an unsafe crutch to lean on. Regardless, it doesn't change the theme of what was written or the numeric goal that Buechele should be measured against this season.
1. Buechele had the best running back in America behind him. That should have uplifted his numbers and it didn't really happen.
2. Yes, they're different. Hence, my objection to your direct comparison.
3. Gilbert has become quite a fall guy recently. Perhaps that's fair. I'm not sure I have a full read on the quality of Gilbert.
Finally, no, it's not fair to have a comparison if passing numbers without mentioning the other numbers, especially when one guy is a run threat first and the other guy isn't.
Thanks for the numbers, we requested/argued over/postulated them last week. Way to be in tune with your patrons! By the way, Applewhite all day, he was clutch, Chrissy was not.
There's zero proof that Buechele would play well against the Alabama schedule with Alabama players around him.
It's possible, no doubt. I don't believe the data we've seen suggests that it's unlikely, but that's just an opinion.
I agree he needs to raise his level of play, but your premise that people are pointing to injury as some sort of crutch or a means to avoid a certain reality, is incredibly disingenuous. A 6' 180 lbs true freshman got hurt in game 3, and his play from there on out was unsteady at best. Is that the sole reason for his declining play? Probably not. True freshman QB's historically have the limited success they do for a reason, but to try to challenge any assertion that it didn't play a part in it is crazy. You try throwing a football with neck, shoulder and rib injuries, not to mention a probable lingering concussion from the Cal game, which he had no business playing in. He needs to elevate his level of play going forward, I don't disagree with that, but he played about as well as one could expect a true freshman QB to play, particularly given the circumstances.
If you're looking for a pet project for next weeks column, it'd be interesting to see a breakdown of how true freshman QBs have performed historically, and what kind of jump they made from year one to year two and how that may or may not relate to Shane. Just food for thought anyway.
Shane Buechele - 236-391, 2,958 yards, 21 TDs, 11 INTs, 136 passer rating in 12 games
Jalen Hurts - 240-382, 2,780 yards, 23 TDs, 9 INTs, 139.1 passer rating in 15 games
I think Buechele will be okay
Anwar - this is a totally apples and oranges comparison.
Alabama would have won about half their games just on the scores made by their D and Special Teams versus the other team's O which they often totally shut down. We all know that none of that is remotely in the cards for Texas anytime soon!
And let's not forget Jalen Hurt's running which was dramatically superior to anything Boo could remotely be expected to ever deliver and often was the difference for Alabama winning the few tight games they were in.
Alabama is the only team that can win consistently with a crappy passing attack these days and Texas should in no way think they should/could attempt to emulate their model.
Yes it can, but it can also be a great amount of pleasure depending on you finding a boat that meets your family's pleasure.
It's fair to compare the passing yards of freshmen QBs, the same way it's fair to compare passing yards of rookie QBs. Do you think Hurts would have been the same QB at Texas with conservative play-calling, receivers dropping balls, and Foreman carrying the offense?
Really glad to see you doing a QBR analysis. It's a hugely correlated pattern both to team wins, and also in understanding which teams are more probable to surge into Playoff caliber seasons.
Also, Austinites hate the traffic. It's bad. And it's HORRIBLE compared to what it used to be.
But many people moving in are coming from places with equally bad to worse traffic. Or at least, they've spent a lot of time in these cities and know what it's like. So to them, they're getting a deal. For that reason, traffic will only get worse during this Austin growth phase, not better. As long time Austinites cry "uncle" and move further out from the core (or even away from the city) others will take their place and say, "Wow, this is so much better than LA/Seattle/NYC/Boston/et...."
Also, Austinites hate the traffic. It's bad. And it's HORRIBLE compared to what it used to be.
But many people moving in are coming from places with equally bad to worse traffic. Or at least, they've spent a lot of time in these cities and know what it's like. So to them, they're getting a deal. For that reason, traffic will only get worse during this Austin growth phase, not better. As long time Austinites cry "uncle" and move further out from the core (or even away from the city) others will take their place and say, "Wow, this is so much better than LA/Seattle/NYC/Boston/et...."
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