I feel like we need to start this week's column off with an important reminder ...
Texas has the fourth-best roster in the country when it comes to the highest of high-end talent. It trails only Ohio State, Georgia and Alabama. A few years ago the gap between Texas and the likes of Alabama/Georgia was between 25-30 players. The deficit is now in single digits.
Before we dive into the weeds of 2025 Texas football recruiting, it feels like some of you really need a refresher on the current state of the program.
Only once in the modern history of recruiting has Texas ever had more Rivals super blue chips on its roster than it will heading into the 2024 season, so whatever we do in the discussion of this column, let's not lose sight of the forest through the trees.
Folks, this is not a time of desperation. Far from it.
That being said, recruiting could be better. Better put ... recruiting should be better. Those in the Texas program will tell you that recruiting will get better and that's only a matter of time before that becomes apparent.
From my perspective, it's my job to try and outline what has happened, what is happening and what might happen moving forward.
Let's start with ...
No. 2 - WHAT HAS HAPPENED?!?!?!? ...
Did you hear that Dakorien Moore committed to Oregon?
I'm not sure that things are any clearer today than they were a few nights ago. Here's what I will continue to stress from my side of things from an information standpoint. While the Longhorns haven't been pedal to the metal for every prospect on the recruiting board, the program really went for it with Moore per multiple sources with knowledge of the recruitment/NIL opportunities that were in play. From what I was told in the 24-48 hours before his announcement, the NIL opportunities that would have existed for Moore once he arrived on campus were north of $1,000.000. When I remarked to one source that I was surprised that such an opportunity existed given how emphatic the attitude had been about not going to those levels (for a multitude of reasons), it was explained to me that Moore is very much a special case.
In the days leading up the decision, I got the sense that folks behind the scenes believed that Texas was at least on even footing with Oregon with regards to NIL. Of course, there is an expectation that Moore's representation would attempt to leverage offers against each other in the name of getting the best offer possible, but that wasn't really time sensitive on the day of the announcement because there's a strong belief that Moore's recruitment isn't going to be final until we get much closer to December.
Did Oregon come in stronger? Maybe. Did any source indicate to me that Oregon won in July because of a better NIL situation? Not a single one.
So, if not NIL, what happened? It's possible that this has less to do with what Texas didn't do and more to do with what Oregon head coach Dan Lanning and his staff did do. Consider these comments from Darkorien's mother Majahn Moore in the immediate aftermath of the Oregon visit.
“The love they have for my son is so genuine I know they’ll take great care of him,” she told Rivals' Adam Gorney. “Since it was an OV I was able to bring my family out and my boys fell in love with the city and the people that they’ve only known through the phone. Kori has a great bond with a few of the players already so he was able to tap in and pick their brain in regards to life in Eugene.”
It's possible that he is still riding the high of that visit, which occurred less than two weeks prior to his announcement. Once upon a time in recruiting, getting the last visit used to be a big deal. Considering how little time passed between that visit and the announcement, all of this could easily be connected to timing. It's also very possible that the Oregon staff just did a magnificent job. Again, maybe it's not about what Texas didn't do as much as what Oregon did do. Whatever the reasons, it's important to remember that a dead period began as soon as Moore returned from Eugene and the Longhorns haven't had any time to truly counter the game-changing visit.
I know everyone wants a definitive reason for this recruitment going sideways the way that it did, but there are layers to all of this and I'm not completely sure that the Texas side of the fence has a complete grasp of the dynamics that have changed since the Oregon visit. As recently as the day he announced, my Texas sources were very confident that Moore would sign with Texas in December, July announcement be damned.
Has that changed? I'll be honest, I went out of the way to give some of my sources some space after Thursday's announcement. Sometimes you just have to leave people alone on the weekend of a major holiday. I'm 100 percent certain these sources will continue to maintain that nothing that is happening in July is much more than a shell game and that widespread activity in the fall will occur once NIL discussions find final resting places across the board all over the country (more on this in a bit).
It's possible that overcoming Oregon became even more difficult on Saturday afternoon when Steve Sarkisian tweeted that "The pride and the winning tradition of The University of Texas will not be entrusted to the weak or timid." One Duncanville source told me on Sunday that it didn't take long for the content of the Tweet to reach those close to Moore and it was viewed as a subtweet directed towards him.
Regardless of where this recruitment goes from here, Texas will survive at the wide receiver position and is poised to potentially land a five-star level pass catcher or two before the 2025 class is put to bed. Plus, there's the Portal. Oh, and a fairly stocked wide receiver room. which features multiple five-star level talents with 2-3 years of eligibility remaining.
Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose. Texas wins more than it loses with wide receivers.
No. 3 - Other things that happened ...
You can make a case that because of the needs at the linebacker and defensive tackle position in the 2025 recruiting class, the loss of McKinney linebacker Riley Pettijohn is a tougher recruiting loss to recover from than the loss of Moore simply because there are significantly more high-end wide receiver options available in the marketplace than at linebacker.
Multiple sources, including one not affiliated with Texas, confirmed throughout last week that Texas had the best set of NIL opportunities and the edge might have been in the low six figures. One high-level source believed all week that the Longhorns might not get a commitment from Pettijohn on Saturday, but would sign him in December.
While it might feel like his decision to go to Ohio State came out of nowhere, Pettijohn was incredibly open about Texas not being in his top two schools almost two weeks out from his announcement when he spoke with Orangebloods and numerous other reporters at the Rivals Five-Star event in Jacksonville. At the time, a lot of Texas folks wondered if that was simply him trying to drum up suspense for his announcement or a negotiating ploy, but it became clearer and clearer as this past week went on that the Longhorns were closer to fourth place in his recruitment than first place.
This recruitment kind of reminds me of Kelvin Banks' recruitment in the summer of 2021 when the Texas coaching staff believed it was about to land a commitment from Banks when the Longhorns were really running third and weren't invited to Zoom calls on the eve of his announcement like the staffs at Oregon and Texas A&M. As it turned out, the scoreboard in July didn't matter in December, which should serve as an example for everyone reading this about how the dynamics can change quite a bit over the span of several months.
Other than Pettijohn's pledge to the Buckeyes, the only real impactful decision that went against Texas was with Lamont Rogers' commitment to Missouri. The weird thing about this situation is that I hadn't been expecting Rogers to truly be in play for Texas over the last few months, so when confirmations were coming in that the Longhorns had made a move for him, it was very much a surprise. By the time of his announcement on Saturday, several sources close to Rogers were downplaying UT's positioning. Still, I was told last week that Texas felt good about its positioning with him. Deep down, no one really believes that this commitment is going to hold. We'll see.
Stay tuned ...
No. 4 – What's happening right now ...
Everyone in the Texas football department is acting like a bunch of little Fonzies at the moment. I've sensed zero panic. Confidence remains high. This is a group that prefers to chase a commitment more than protect one. It's done magnificent work from August-December in each of the last three recruiting cycles. No one can deny that Sark is the modern-day Fred Fenster from The Usual Suspects.
The belief at Texas is that the Texas coaching staff will simply do what it does ... win in the end.
You won't find me doubting them. Every year there's a mini-panic at some stage on the calendar and every year the Longhorns are signing super blue chips in large numbers.
That acknowledgement out of the way, it's important to have a discussion about where things stand right now with recruiting in the state of Texas. While I believe it is a crime against humanity that Texas commitment Lance Jackson isn't rated inside the top 10, this is what the current Rivals top 10 for the state of Texas looks like:
Six of the top 10 are committed to out-of-state schools (four of them are committed to schools that begin with the letter O). Jonah Williams might be trending to Oregon. Ty Haywood is expected to commit to Alabama. Andrew Marsh is trending to Michigan.
It's possible that the Longhorns, Aggies and Sooners will go into Michael Fasusi's decision without a single verbal pledge from anyone in the top 10. That's absolutely bonkers for a million reasons.
Overall, Texas has one commitment (Jackson) among the top 15 prospects in the Rivals rankings in the state of Texas. It only gets slightly better with On3 (two - Smith Orogbo is No. 7 and Jackson is No. 10), while 247 also has the Longhorns with one top-15 commitment (Jackson at No. 12). Keep in mind that I'm using 15 as a metric because every cycle that's roughly the amount of super blue chips (national top 70-ish or better) that are available from Texas.
In real time, there's work to be done. A lot of it.
No. 5 – About the future ...
It is the belief inside the Texas Football program that the final months of the 2025 recruiting cycle are going to be an absolute free-for-all and that we'll see more kids flipping schools than we've ever seen before.
Sarkisian and his coaching staff fully expect to be on the receiving end on a number of flips. As I've reported in the last week, knowing that the landscape is so unstable, the Longhorns haven't gone after a lot of kids with a hard summer sell. That's been reserved for a few special cases and it hasn't really been an aid for the UT cause at this stage of the game. That will change once we get into October/November.
How this class is remembered will come down to the final two months of the cycle and not a moment before. People that go around citing Rivals team rankings in July are morons that either have an agenda or just don't know what they are doing. Or both.
When taking a look at the program from 30,000 feet up, I would set a generic goal of adding between 8-10 super blue chips to the roster through recruiting and Portal additions To give you some perspective, the Longhorns added seven super blue chips to their roster in 2024 when accounting for the Rivals HS Recruiting and Portal Rankings. A running four-year cycle of at least seven super blue chips per year will ensure that you are in the top five from an elite talent standpoint in the sport at all times, even if you lose a few through attrition.
Texas currently has two in the Rivals rankings in KJ Lacey and Lance Jackson (I don't care that he's technically not a super blue chip ... he will be), although I wouldn't be shocked if Lacey dropped a notch by the end of the rankings process (Rivals is the only recruiting service that has him ranked inside the Top 100).
Texas is waiting on OL Michael Fasusi, WR Kaliq Lockett, WR Jaime Ffrench, TE Nick Townsend, LB Madden Faraimo and ATH Michael Terry. I would expect Texas to land at least three of the five when December rolls around. That would give the Longhorns 4-5 super blue chips before we even get into possible flips and transfer additions. It might be remembered by some for the players it might not sign and there are question marks about the interior defensive line and linebacker (more on that in a moment), but it's likely that the Texas staff is going to hit my target number when the dust settles.
No. 6 - About DT and LB ...
With all due respect to the tight end position, which would be next in line, the biggest positional needs in the 2025 class are at DT and LB.
Both positions feature first-year assistant coaches that are behind their peers in a lot of the relationship-building with the top targets in the 2025 class. Remember what Texas wide receiver coach Chris Jackson told @Anwar Richardson a little more than seven months ago.
“The big thing for me is coming into February. Last year, I was already behind, which I quickly caught on to in recruiting. They sent me on the road the very first day I stepped foot in Austin. I had to learn the recruiting aspect pretty fast. But also I was behind when a lot of guys have been talking to these players for a year, sometimes two years. Man, I'm talking to them for the first time. I feel like I credit myself man just being a personable guy and being able to develop relationships, but I was behind with certain people. The certain ones I was able to catch up with was Ryan Wingo in St. Louis. Parker was Texas through and through. There was some relationships I had to kind of catch up on and some I missed out on just because I was late in the recruiting process. Like Bryant Wesco and Micah Hudson. I couldn't pick up that relationship the other schools had with them."
It's not what cost Texas with Pettijohn (Ohio State linebackers coach James Laurinaitis is in his first season), but it's a reminder of the elements that both DL coach Kenny Baker and LB coach Johnny Nansen are dealing with in year one on Sarkisian's staff.
If the Longhorns can't flip Pettijohn, it's a pretty massive loss because on paper he looked like the player that could serve as the bridge at linebacker after Anthony Hill potentially departs after the 2025 season. There's not another guy like him in the state of Texas or across the country that the Longhorns are in on. Even if they can find a way to land Cali prep star Madden Faraimo, he's got a different type of kill set/frame/projection than Pettijohn. Maybe the answer to finding that bridge is Texas commitment Bo Barnes. Maybe the answer will be found in the Portal. Maybe someone on campus steps up. Maybe there's someone in the 2026 class that can serve as the bridge with someone serving as a one-year stopgap. There are a lot of possibilities, but Pettijohn is kind of a 1 of 1 in this cycle, so Texas should definitely fight until the bloody end.
The addition of Pettijohn would give the Longhorns one of the best linebacker classes in the country. Without him, we might just be looking at very good.
As for the defensive tackle position, I would look for three things ...
a. Land top-10 national DT prospect D.J. Sanders out of Bellville.
b. Flip multiple committed prospects like Oregon commit Josiah Sharma, which I think people behind the scenes believe is very possible.
c. Portal, Portal and more Portal.
If the Longhorns can land Sanders, flipped a top 10-15 national DT and a couple of starting/contributing level players from the Portal, this class could end up being very serviceable, which isn't the worst thing in the world, even if it's not the best.
No. 7 - One final take and a look at the updated scholarship board ...
I've said this in the past, but I want to say it again as the Longhorns sit on 13 commitments in the 2025 class.
Don't take projects. It's not that value can't be found in national Top 250-750 prospects, it's just that the majority of them will need 24-36 months of development before they are ready to be high-level contributors at a program like Texas. Let Baylor or Texas Tech take them and if they develop into the 15-25% of prospects at that tier of prospects that ultimately are good enough to play at Texas, just steal them through the Portal.
It's better to use that scholarship on a one-year contributing player for the 2025 season so that you can have that scholarship for use as soon as the 2026 recruiting year than it is to take a multi-year project who is 80 percent likely to sit on the bench for two seasons and then 80 percent likely to transfer before he ever hits the field. Yes, I made those numbers up, but ... are they wrong?
No. 8 – BUY or SELL …
(Buy) I think so. There's still a lot of time left and a lot of the meat on the bone. That being said, don't stick your head into the sand, either.
(Sell) In the very near future (as early as the fall of 2025), I think you're going to have schools directly paying for players (see lawsuit settlement) and it will be supplemented by NIL. The money involved will be in the tens of millions, but the thirstiest of schools and fan bases will always find ways to do more.
(Sell) Great players want to play with other great players. None of them ever think they will be forced to wait a year or two. See Alabama and Georgia from the last decade.
(Buy/Buy/Sell) I'll buy everything, but the final question. I don't know what he can do to prove that Ewers should be ranked ahead of Caleb Williams.
(Sell) I think the staff already does it the old fashioned way. Don't let the superficial entryway let you believe otherwise.
(Buy) As Duane Thomas once famously told Tom Brookshier following Super Bowl VI ... (Go to the 7:25 mark)
(Sell) The expectations should never drop below a top 5-level class with at least 5-6 super blue chips.
(Sell) You know what they call negative recruiting in the SEC?
Recruiting.
(Sell) I don't know that "weakness" is the word I would use, but I didn't like it and I don't think it potentially helps in trying to flip guys like Moore and Pettijohn. I just don't know that a quick social media pop is worth the potential trouble.
Signed,
A guy that personally knows that a quick social media pop can provide more trouble than it's worth.
(Sell) Maybe Kelshaun Johnson, though.
(Sell/Sell) I don't think Neto is ever going to go for that. I think he might be out the door before it ever comes to that and if he can't prove to be a plus at his best position, it's unlikely that he'd be the answer to the issues that exist. Honestly, I'm ok with Niblett getting some snaps out of the backfield, but that can be accomplished without changing his position. He's barely been on campus a year ... patience ...
(Sell) Have you seen the current roster? Did you see the graphic in the opening section?
(Sell) It's possible that the staff got outworked, but maybe they got out-planned. Or out-executed. The bottom line is the bottom line, though and thus far, the results should probably be better. But, write that in pencil and not ink. I think the only NIL disadvantage that Texas might have is with Oregon (see Jabbar Muhammad). It didn't seem to be an issue against Ohio State and USC. Recruiting chops always matter. Come to think of it, maybe the staff got out-recruiting chopped? Yes, I am surprised. Clearly. I thought both Moore and Pettijohn to Texas were happening 14 days ago.
(Buy) I guess. On some level, they are only talking about repeating things that they've already routinely done. Do I have some doubts? Yes. Do I think they will get some flips in the fall? Yes.
Serious B/S now:
When we once thought NIL would consolidate all the top players at a few schools, it is actually the reverse; top players are actually spreading out?
Edited to add: I knew I saw it somewhere. Do you agree with this from Dan Wetzel?
Top 10 recruits, 10 different schools: NIL has helped spread the wealth ... of talent
The top 10 recruits in the country are expected to commit to 10 different schools.sports.yahoo.com
Yes, I agree with Wetzel. The number of super blue chips that Alabama and Georgia have this year are in the high 20s when they've previously been in the high 30s. I don't know that the overall landscape has changed a ton as much as those two have come back to the pack slightly.
(Sell) I'll be the first to mention that this staff has been caught flat-footed a few times, but you don't build the fourth best roster in the nation in terms of super blue chips by being the bridesmaid more than the bride. This staff is way more Elizabeth Taylor than Greta Garbo, even if they do get a little over-confident at times. I'm sure that Brad Pitt has probably been a little over-confident around women a time or two in his life. Steph Curry think he's going to make every shot he takes, which is why he shoots from the logo. He's missed 52.7% of his career shots.
(Buy) You don't get to be The Wolf because you flinch at the first sign of unstable ground.
(Buy) Great question.
(Sell) Great idea, though.
(Buy) Sometimes finishing second is better than finishing first when the dust settles. You just won't know whether it's true for a while.
(Sell) I'm going to say that the recruiting success in the Portal (at the very least) allowed for some significant recruiting gains.
No. 9 – Scattershooting all over the place …
... A Longhorn is in the quarterfinals at Wimbledon! Next up: Unseeded Croatian Donna Vekic.
... As a Cowboys fan, I have no idea what I'm supposed to be looking forward to this season. I already know how it will end. It's like riding the Shock Wave at Six Flags back in the day ... after about 25 times, the loopty loops aren't as much fun.
... It feels like San Antonio won the hell out of that three-team DeMar DeRozan trade.
... No, I did not watch a second of Bronny James in his summer league debut, but I did just devote a sentence to him in this column. Doh!
... Attaboy, Lewis Hamilton.
... Colombia looks like the best team in the Copa America heading into the semi-finals.
... It was ugly, but I'll watch Uruguay and Brazil play for blood any day of the week. I was fully entertained.
... If Gareth Southgate backdoors his way to a Euro title, I might throw up.
... Enjoy retirement, Thiago Alcantera, you beautiful sweet prince of a baller.
... I watched 5+ hours of MLS action on Apple TV this weekend. I probably need help.
... John Cena is retiring from the WWE? Suuuuurrrrre.
... Margot Robbie is preggo with her first child. No response yet from Ken or his reps.
... Per Hollywood Reporter: "Kevin Costner’s big-budget Horizon: An American Saga — Chapter One, falling to No. 6, continues to struggle to find its audience. The $100 million period Western, which runs just over three hours, tumbled 50 percent in its second weekend to roughly $5.5 million from 3,325 theaters for a domestic total of $22.2 million. As of now, distributor Warner Bros. hasn’t mentioned how this might impact Costner’s sequel, which is set to open in cinemas on August"
... Yes, my family made up part of the $122.6 million that Despicable Me 4 made at the box office in its five-day opening.
... I can't really explain why (other than it being absolutely wonderful), but this moved me to tears ...
No. 10 - Top 10: Eddie Murphy ...
Ok, I haven't seen Beverly Hills Cop: Axel F on Netflix just yet ... but, I have seen roughly half of it.
I gotta say, I kind of liked the first half of the movie. It feels like before I'm done watching it, we'll be able to safely call it a solid edition to the Cop family. We don't mention III on these streets.
With this little slice of growing happiness in play, let's do an update Murphy Top 10!
Honorable Mention: Dreamgirls, Mulan, Tower Heist, Shrek 2, Doctor Doolittle, Showtime, Vampire in Brooklyn and The Distinguished Gentleman
Last 5 Out: The Golden Child, The Nutty Professor, Dolemite is My Name, Bowfinger and Delirious
10. Life
Just nudges out The Golden Child. I feel really guilty about this.
9. Harlem Nights
8. Boomerang
It gets better and better with age. It might be underrated at 8.
7. Beverly Hills Cop II
One of the most underrated sequels of all-time. I snuck into the theater in Round Rock in the summer of 1987 and I nearly got my friend Eric killed by his parents, who were under the impression we had seen Ernest Goes to Camp instead. This led to a fight in front of the crossing guard at Robertson Elementary School the following Monday. We are still friends today.
6. Shrek
Do I have this underrated? Should Donkey be in the top 5?
5. Raw
It's probably my favorite comedic movie of all-time.
4. 48 Hours
Another movie made him a superstar, but this one definitely made him a box office movie star.
3. Coming to America
I'm not lying when I tell you that I've seen this movie a couple hundred times.
2. Trading Places
This is the best comedy of the 1980s. Fight me. At worst, it's in the top 5.
1. Beverly Hills Cop
It's the most Eddie Murphy movie of all the Eddie Murphy movies and it's just as good in 2024 as it was when it came out 40 years ago. It's the movie that made him a superstar. Hell, I can still remember seeing it in the theater when it came out. My mom fell asleep while eating Wendy's in the back while I was sitting up front. She woke up with people staring at her and she's never forgotten it.
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