Ketch's 10 Thoughts From the Weekend (When forever really means forever)

[Ketchum]

Defense needs more than Tyler back. Still a step slow and the cover in midfield is not very consistent......but they can score......need balance......

They have scored a ton, considering Maidana might be its best player and has missed the last 1 1/2 games.

 

[Ketchum]

Lol it was an 11 seed beating a 6.... And that 11 seed beat the 1 seed earlier this year. It wasn't THAT big of a deal lol.

shots like that happen all the time. Losing in the 2nd round pretty much means that the shot will be a cool highlight for them, but nothing more.

shots like that happen all the time?

when was the last time it happened in the NCAA Tournament?

It's called denial.

 

[Ketchum]

Nominating Zach Shackelford as maybe the best player on the entire roster before playing a down?....... :/

It was a subtle dig at the hyperbole he has received this spring in mostly non-padded practice.

 

[Ketchum]

Awesome 10th thought @Ketchum...

Also, the NIU mid-court shot to end the game isn't iconic for two reasons: 1) Next to nobody actually saw it happen and 2) well, it's Basketball at a university that really doesn't care all that much about Basketball. We care in so much as it's a nice way to pass 2-3 months of a long offseason between a bowl game and the next football season.

Hook'em

Yeah, CBS isn't going to care about any of that when it's included in every highlight package it makes for the Tournament in the next two decades.

 

[Ketchum]

How can any team be ahead by 12 points with 44 seconds to go LOSE?

Have Gonzaga going to the final 4 in all my brackets - Gonzaga advanced to Elite 8 last year and this years team will go further. The twin towers will dominate Syracuse.

Lived in San Jose CA for over 17 years...was at that game in Candlestick Park. Hugh 49'er fan and the best team definitely won that game.

Best owner - DeBartolo & Best Coach - Walsh

Meh.

 

[McLovin327]

@Ketchum - a lot of college players, and the people advising them, assume a payday is there for the taking and give no thought to the more pertinent question, "What's the best way to maximize a player's payday?" When a player is a lottery or even a 1st round pick then that's pretty much your answer.

At this point it's not certain whether Taylor would be drafted or make an NBA roster so you have to look at the trade-offs:
- The NBA D-league salary is $12,000 - $24,000, there's no payday being a D-League player, it's all about making an NBA roster.
- He could earn a European rookie salary between $65,000 and $100,000
See analysis here: http://sportsagentblog.com/2012/07/...asketball-why-dont-more-players-go-to-europe/

Europe isn't the payday people seem to assume and it will always be an option whether a kid leaves early or not, so the decision should focus on maximizing their chance of getting into the NBA. NBA = maximum payday.

If he comes back for his Senior year and improves enough to get drafted then:
- The 2nd round draft pick rookie minimum salary in 2016-17 is around $550,000, with no guarantee. http://www.basketballinsiders.com/nba-salaries/nba-minimum-salary/
- The 1st round draft pick rookie minimum salary is just under $1,000,000, and it's guaranteed. http://basketball.realgm.com/nba/info/rookie_scale

There's no chance Taylor is going to be drafted in the 1st round this year, but if he thinks he can improve enough to get drafted in the 1st round next year then it seems like a better path to a payday.
- Leaving this year most likely puts him on track for a low pay rookie payday with an unknown improvement/decline in his chances of making an NBA roster.
- Staying for his senior year without enough improvement to be drafted in the 1st round leaves him with the same prospects as leaving this year. It seems unlikely he wouldn't make enough improvement to at least be a certain 2nd round pick and a better chance at making an NBA roster and earning at least a $550,00 rookie minimum salary. This has a higher expected value than leaving this year.
- Staying for his senior year and getting drafted in the 1st round would guarantee at least $1,000,000 as a rookie. This has the highest expected value.

 

[Ketchum]

I really don't get comparing it to a play like the Catch or Laetner's bucket against Kentucky. Stakes were completely different.

I'm talking about the visuals. The only comparison to those plays is that it was in the NCAA Tournament and goes down as one of the great winning shots of all-time.

It's more the Doug Flutie Hail Mary than anything else.

 

[Ketchum]

I don't doubt that it will be shown a lot but surely no one thought that shot prevented us from winning the title. To act like we will be eternally heartbroken because we lost a round or two earlier than most thought is silly.

I didn't say it cost Texas a title.

I said that moment of misery, however miserable it was for you, will be the most replayed negative Texas moment from any sport ever.

 

[Ketchum]

Erick Fowler will play early and often......... book it....

 

[daflonghorn]

Shaka's job is to make it happen.

I was thinking about this too. We will have 3 sophomores who will have been in his system for a year, and if by some huge miracle Isiah Taylor returns we will have excellent senior leadership there. But, having the 3 that have been through this and seemed to play very well as freshmen will help a lot compared to this year. Now will that translate to a Sweet 16 appearance, who knows. Maybe Mich State can answer that?

 

[robtex81]

So you're saying Texas' basketball woes are Obama's fault, the 2008 financial crisis; or both?

 

[sodiumacetate]

I'm talking about the visuals. The only comparison to those plays is that it was in the NCAA Tournament and goes down as one of the great winning shots of all-time.

It's more the Doug Flutie Hail Mary than anything else.

But the effect of the visual isn't the same. If I see a highlight of Colt getting hit by Darius, it gnaws at me because we were so close to a title and that one hit is likely the difference. Same with Crabtree's catch. But seeing the UNI half court shot go in didn't make anyone feel sick, except for the players and coaches and their families. Heck I rewound it several times because it was so crazy. We were a only a 6 seed and we were going to lose eventually. Context is everything.

 

[PabloDeTejas]

Then we go with Buechele. We know Swoopes gives us a 0% chance to win a big game (3rd and 4th string qb Baylor aside).

If Buechele gives us a 2% chance. That's greater than 0%. If Heard gives us a 1% chance, that's greater than 0%.

I understand your frustration, and I think Shane is going to be a big time contributor. But we need to be realistic about the state of the UT QB situation. Its better than it has been, but its still a long way from where it needs to be. Heard may or may not step up and take the job. Buechele may or may not be ready for prime time. Locksley and Merrick appear to be non-factors.

Swoopes might be the choice in September. We need to be mentally prepared for that.

 

[Texas Diesel]

I didn't say it cost Texas a title.

I said that moment of misery, however miserable it was for you, will be the most replayed negative Texas moment from any sport ever.

I feel you and I realize you didn't say it cost Texas a title but all of the things you compared it to are etched in people's minds because they WERE title affecting moments. This was an answered prayer in the first round by a team that came crashing down a couple of days later and many weeks before the title game happens that neither team ever had a chance for.

 

[Ketchum]

- The Isaiah Taylor decision will be interesting. D- League vs. Campus Hero. If I'm Taylor, I look at Buddy Hield and come back, but I can't fault him if he wants to get paid.

- Hield is the best player in college basketball. If Ben Simmons played like Hield, I would have more faith in him being the second coming of ... (insert cliche here).

- If Buechele plays in eight games, does that mean Swoopes was benched after bad performances?

- I think Kyle Porter has a chance to play this year.

- RGIII might be a part of the second wave of free agency after the draft. Talk about a fall from grace.

a. Might not even be the D-League. Might be overseas.

b. agreed. Give me Brandon Ingram and I'll take my chances that he can be the next Paul George.

c. Yes.

d. I can see Porter getting some late game playing time.

e. Hello, Browns!

 

[CPHornfan]

Meh.

 

[I Hear Voices]

This hug with mediocrity simply has to end and as Smart enters his second season, his challenge is getting this program to take a step forward next season. Winning 20 games or even 25 games won’t be enough in 2017 to make it a successful season. Fair or not, Smart’s progress will be judges by whether he can win two games in three days in the first weekend of next year’s Tournament.

I think you are marginalizing the regular season. And when did winning 25 games stop being judged as a successful season? Most years 25 wins means you are a top ten team. It also means you are probably a 3-4 seed in the tourney, maybe even higher depending on who you beat to get there.

g. The winner of the Virginia/Iowa State will never get a better look at the Final Four than playing the winner of Syracuse/Gonzaga.

I hadn't thought of that. I think you are absolutely correct.

Good write up. You seemed at peace for some reason. At least that is what came through as I read your column.

 

[Good.Shepherd]

BUY or SELL: Texas, as a team, hits these statistical categories this season

a. QBR of 140.0 (or above)
b. Average ypc for our top 2 or 3 running backs at 5.0 ypc (or above)
c. Total rushing TD of top 2 or 3 backs at 26 (or above)
d. No back on the roster has to take more than 210 carries for the season.

(a. Sell. b. Buy. c. Sell. d. Buy) Texas has had one quarterback in the last six years touch a 140.0 rating and I’m not sure there’s anyone on the roster better than 2012 David Ash. This season will be a disaster if the top backs on this team aren’t averaging better than five yards per carry, so I think they’ll clear that number, but not the 26 touchdowns. Finally, I think if D’Onte Foreman stays healthy for 13 games, he’ll average more than 16 carries per game.

Thanks for taking a poke at this.

I've been going back, systematically, and looking at trophy winners (conference, major BCS, and championship) and trying to find the lines about what we are REALLY trying to get to in terms of "good enough" offensive stats to see ourselves as a team in striking distance of a trophy again.

These are, with very few exceptions, the basic statistical profile that the trophy winners share going back to the start of the BCS. It's like buying runs instead of players in baseball--if we can get here, we have the profile to win game over the course of the season (though no guarantee). In the late 90s and early 2000s, like the OU championship, they had a rushing number closer to 4.3 but for the last 10 years 5.0 with the fewest carries concentrated to one single back (with the exception of Alabama this year who gave Henry almost 400 carries), this is the profile of trophy quality teams. You can actually use it to predict the outcome of BCS games that come down to offensive performance with striking reliability.

These aren't passive stats--they're an active proxy measure for the common methods of attacking, taking leads, and holding them (and staying out of injuries and see-sawing in close games). Sot they take an active eye to apply. But they are interesting.

It's not sufficient to win a trophy, but it does seem to be a highly correlated look into offensive performance. Conversely, many teams achieve this but do not win trophies because their defense doesn't hold leads. There's a lot to why this little woven cord of stats is important for trophy winners (QBR is how you get, or take back, leads/ rushing is how you hold a lead/ carries is about injury and player regression/ rushing TDs is about protecting leads when you have them and demoralizing opponents from fighting back).

I generally like your answers, but I just wanted to offer one intersting thing on the QBR.

Tulsa QB Dane Evans:
Freshman QBR: 78.3
Sophomore QBR: 120.9
ENTER STERLIN GILBERT
Junior QBR: 151.6

If this pattern holds, you have to see the opportunity for our QBs to break that critical QBR barrier. No idea of the probability--it's anything but assured. But look at, for example:

Heard:
Freshman QBR: 121.6

Swoopes:
Freshman QBR: 55.3
Sophomore QBR: 116.5
Junior QBR: 111.1


*Another interesting point: hold this profile up to Texas teams going back to 2004. You'll see a very interesting pattern. But you'll also see an interesting bump in last year's stats, in rushing, than we did in any previous year even back through 2008 or so--they is a bright ray of hope. At the bottom of our RB rotation were guys that absolutely were on trend for the 5.0 to 6.0 YPC and 26+ TDs. It's a huge ray of hope if you know what you're looking for. I think our running game might be back for the first time since Jamaal left. Or at least, there is a small mathematical glimmer that it could be occurring

Link: http://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/schools/texas/2015.html.

 

[Ketchum]

Hell I was thinking at the end of the N. Iowa collapse just throw it all the way down the other end of the court and let a guy touch it and at least make them go the length of the court to score! Just unbelievable that happened. Never seen that before and doubt we will see it again. The no timeouts just killed them.

Shaka has to get at least 2 quality bigs to play next year and Allen doesn't count as not sure he will be ready to play big minutes inside. Their only big right now is Cleare! That is scary right there. Very good guards and swing players. Maybe a knock down shooter also. That staff will earn their $$ in April this year for sure. Hope Taylor comes back for another year. If he can knock down mid range jumpers he is pretty much unstoppable in college the way it is called now.

Lot of people thought this season would be a disaster a year ago when looking at the roster.

His job is to make it work.

 

[Ketchum]

Maybe it's because I've been beaten down so far over the past 6 seasons of Texas sports,
or maybe it's because I just don't care as much about basketball but did anyone else get over that loss in less than a day? I also don't think that shot will live on for as long as you think it will @Ketchum due to the fact that it was in the first round and UNI lost the next game.

Do you remember how Tate George's season ended? Bryce Drew's?

 

[Ketchum]

Well if Taylor is in the D league he sure isn't making much $$ there. Maybe $50,000 or $60,000 I think. Better to come back and everything paid for and a little Pell Grant $$ also.

If Simmons played like Hield his team would still be playing. Everyone blaming that coach but hell some of the blame has to go to Simmons also.

Simmons' teammates were pretty garbage. 5 of 43 FG in their last time.

 

[Ketchum]

I mean.....I'm willing to admit that I might be in the minority, but isn't this historical, shot for the ages being overblown just a tad? You're talking about the first round of the tournament, a unknown NIU team, and a pretty average Texas team with no stars or anyone in whom you'd really get emotionally invested. Texas isn't a Duke, UNC, Michigan State, etc. I guess I just don't understand why it's such a big deal to some. This isn't even in the same universe as Colt going down against Bama, FSU wide rights, VY vs USC (from USC's perspective), Ohio State vs The U (from Miami's perspective), etc.

Texas would have likely been waxed in Round 2 and the team that beat Texas was beaten. I just don't see how anyone is putting this on some Christian Laettner, Chris Webber, Jimmy V level. It's the first Monday after it happened and I wouldn't be surprised if only a relative few people remember or even care about the shot. Again, perhaps I'm in the minority.

It's the video of it all that will live on. I don't know why this being a once-in-a-generation shot that makes for great replaying over and over and over is so hard to get.

 

[Ketchum]

Nobody will remember that shot outside Texas/NI fans with the way Northern Iowa choked against aggy in the very next game.

Just to be clear, you don't think that shot will be replayed constantly in the future?

I'm down for wagers if so.

 

[Ketchum]

It will never be the Crabtree catch. It will always be the Gideon drop. Once that happened, the next play seemed foreordained.

I understand exactly what you're saying. I'm not saying this will be the most painful replay you'd ever see, it's just going to be the most seen replay of pain you'll ever see.

 

[Pho King Master]

Just to be clear, you don't think that shot will be replayed constantly in the future?

I'm down for wagers if so.

You talking nationally or like LHN? Of course it'll be shown a bunch on LHN and local Austin stations when talking about UT Basketball and the disappointing end to the season, but no one nationally cares about that shot. The Northern Iowa choke job will be talked about for years.

After this years "One Shining Moment", doubtful it makes many national highlight reels in the future, so yeah, I'd take that bet.

 

[Ketchum]

@Ketchum - a lot of college players, and the people advising them, assume a payday is there for the taking and give no thought to the more pertinent question, "What's the best way to maximize a player's payday?" When a player is a lottery or even a 1st round pick then that's pretty much your answer.
Great post.

Some guys would rather make 50K right now than continue playing for free, regardless of circumstances. The question is whether that's Taylor. It's very possible because those guys are usually more numerous than people believe.

 

[Horniffied]

Just to be clear, you don't think that shot will be replayed constantly in the future?

I'm down for wagers if so.

No, I and apparently most others ITT do not believe it will be played "constantly" as an all-time great NCAA memory, and I certainly don't care enough about it to make any sort of bet. Will it be showed again? Sure, but not in the all-time great shots context you are claiming IMO.

I think you're way off here with the hyperbole and that's OK. It's not personal. I just think Northern Iowa's historical choke job is the much, much bigger story. That's all people are talking about today. I've had one person mention the half court shot (because they know I'm a Texas alum) and over a dozen talk about the choke job.

 

[texasguy2310]

It's the video of it all that will live on. I don't know why this being a once-in-a-generation shot that makes for great replaying over and over and over is so hard to get.

Well, because, in my opinion, the shot, after a week or so, won't even really be remembered. Relatively speaking, it wasn't a very big game, these aren't marquee basketball schools, there were no memorable players, nobody is going to really make any noise at the next level for this to live on as a part of their resume, etc. It was a great play and probably the play of the day/weekend, but it doesn't even register as that big of a deal among the fanbases that were actually involved in the game. If the folks that should be invested in it above all others don't really care, why in the world would anyone else?

 

[Ketchum]

So you're saying Texas' basketball woes are Obama's fault, the 2008 financial crisis; or both?

Definitely Obama's fault.

 

[OwlsAndHorns]

I just don't see this being a signature ncaa tourney moment. I don't care enough to bet on it, but i will be surprised if it is shown regularly 5 years from now.

 

[BRHornz]

I guess I lucked out. I was watching the game and switched during a time out. When I tried to switch back to the UT game, my "last" button didn't work, so I missed the last minute. I turned on the radio just as Texas scored the tying points. Listening to Craig Way seemed easier than having to watch it, in some strange way.

If I'm Taylor, I'm going pro. His heel injury should serve as a reminder of what can happen if you stay. I can't imagine Ridley's stock improved any after his injury.

Here's hoping someone other than Swoopes shines during the next 2 weeks. Kai is gone; Heard's a possibility I suppose; but in my mind, Shane should bulk up and be ready to start in September.

Hook 'em!!!

 

[Ketchum]

I just don't see this being a signature ncaa tourney moment. I don't care enough to bet on it, but i will be surprised if it is shown regularly 5 years from now.

You realize it is a once in a generation event, right? And that the Tournament highlights those kinds of plays on the regular?

 

[Ketchum]

But the effect of the visual isn't the same. If I see a highlight of Colt getting hit by Darius, it gnaws at me because we were so close to a title and that one hit is likely the difference. Same with Crabtree's catch. But seeing the UNI half court shot go in didn't make anyone feel sick, except for the players and coaches and their families. Heck I rewound it several times because it was so crazy. We were a only a 6 seed and we were going to lose eventually. Context is everything.

My point is that the Colt play is almost never shown. It's not viewed as a highlight. Nothing from that game is iconic.

That shot happens once every 35 years and it just happened again to Texas. It's the new Bryce Drew shot.

 

[Ketchum]

I think you are marginalizing the regular season. And when did winning 25 games stop being judged as a successful season? Most years 25 wins means you are a top ten team. It also means you are probably a 3-4 seed in the tourney, maybe even higher depending on who you beat to get there.

College basketball as a sport has largely marginalized the regular season.

 

[Ketchum]

Thanks for taking a poke at this.

I've been going back, systematically, and looking at trophy winners (conference, major BCS, and championship) and trying to find the lines about what we are REALLY trying to get to in terms of "good enough" offensive stats to see ourselves as a team in striking distance of a trophy again.

These are, with very few exceptions, the basic statistical profile that the trophy winners share going back to the start of the BCS. It's like buying runs instead of players in baseball--if we can get here, we have the profile to win game over the course of the season (though no guarantee). In the late 90s and early 2000s, like the OU championship, they had a rushing number closer to 4.3 but for the last 10 years 5.0 with the fewest carries concentrated to one single back (with the exception of Alabama this year who gave Henry almost 400 carries), this is the profile of trophy quality teams. You can actually use it to predict the outcome of BCS games that come down to offensive performance with striking reliability.

These aren't passive stats--they're an active proxy measure for the common methods of attacking, taking leads, and holding them (and staying out of injuries and see-sawing in close games). Sot they take an active eye to apply. But they are interesting.

It's not sufficient to win a trophy, but it does seem to be a highly correlated look into offensive performance. Conversely, many teams achieve this but do not win trophies because their defense doesn't hold leads. There's a lot to why this little woven cord of stats is important for trophy winners (QBR is how you get, or take back, leads/ rushing is how you hold a lead/ carries is about injury and player regression/ rushing TDs is about protecting leads when you have them and demoralizing opponents from fighting back).

I generally like your answers, but I just wanted to offer one intersting thing on the QBR.

Tulsa QB Dane Evans:
Freshman QBR: 78.3
Sophomore QBR: 120.9
ENTER STERLIN GILBERT
Junior QBR: 151.6

If this pattern holds, you have to see the opportunity for our QBs to break that critical QBR barrier. No idea of the probability--it's anything but assured. But look at, for example:

Heard:
Freshman QBR: 121.6

Swoopes:
Freshman QBR: 55.3
Sophomore QBR: 116.5
Junior QBR: 111.1


*Another interesting point: hold this profile up to Texas teams going back to 2004. You'll see a very interesting pattern. But you'll also see an interesting bump in last year's stats, in rushing, than we did in any previous year even back through 2008 or so--they is a bright ray of hope. At the bottom of our RB rotation were guys that absolutely were on trend for the 5.0 to 6.0 YPC and 26+ TDs. It's a huge ray of hope if you know what you're looking for. I think our running game might be back for the first time since Jamaal left. Or at least, there is a small mathematical glimmer that it could be occurring

Link: http://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/schools/texas/2015.html.

good stuff. You know I love me some Moneyball concepts.