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Ketch's 10 Thoughts From the Weekend (When forever really means forever)

Well if Taylor is in the D league he sure isn't making much $$ there. Maybe $50,000 or $60,000 I think. Better to come back and everything paid for and a little Pell Grant $$ also.

If Simmons played like Hield his team would still be playing. Everyone blaming that coach but hell some of the blame has to go to Simmons also.
Simmons' teammates were pretty garbage. 5 of 43 FG in their last time.
 
I mean.....I'm willing to admit that I might be in the minority, but isn't this historical, shot for the ages being overblown just a tad? You're talking about the first round of the tournament, a unknown NIU team, and a pretty average Texas team with no stars or anyone in whom you'd really get emotionally invested. Texas isn't a Duke, UNC, Michigan State, etc. I guess I just don't understand why it's such a big deal to some. This isn't even in the same universe as Colt going down against Bama, FSU wide rights, VY vs USC (from USC's perspective), Ohio State vs The U (from Miami's perspective), etc.

Texas would have likely been waxed in Round 2 and the team that beat Texas was beaten. I just don't see how anyone is putting this on some Christian Laettner, Chris Webber, Jimmy V level. It's the first Monday after it happened and I wouldn't be surprised if only a relative few people remember or even care about the shot. Again, perhaps I'm in the minority.
It's the video of it all that will live on. I don't know why this being a once-in-a-generation shot that makes for great replaying over and over and over is so hard to get.
 
Nobody will remember that shot outside Texas/NI fans with the way Northern Iowa choked against aggy in the very next game.
Just to be clear, you don't think that shot will be replayed constantly in the future?

I'm down for wagers if so.
 
It will never be the Crabtree catch. It will always be the Gideon drop. Once that happened, the next play seemed foreordained.
I understand exactly what you're saying. I'm not saying this will be the most painful replay you'd ever see, it's just going to be the most seen replay of pain you'll ever see.
 
Just to be clear, you don't think that shot will be replayed constantly in the future?

I'm down for wagers if so.

You talking nationally or like LHN? Of course it'll be shown a bunch on LHN and local Austin stations when talking about UT Basketball and the disappointing end to the season, but no one nationally cares about that shot. The Northern Iowa choke job will be talked about for years.

After this years "One Shining Moment", doubtful it makes many national highlight reels in the future, so yeah, I'd take that bet.
 
@Ketchum - a lot of college players, and the people advising them, assume a payday is there for the taking and give no thought to the more pertinent question, "What's the best way to maximize a player's payday?" When a player is a lottery or even a 1st round pick then that's pretty much your answer.
Great post.

Some guys would rather make 50K right now than continue playing for free, regardless of circumstances. The question is whether that's Taylor. It's very possible because those guys are usually more numerous than people believe.
 
Just to be clear, you don't think that shot will be replayed constantly in the future?

I'm down for wagers if so.
No, I and apparently most others ITT do not believe it will be played "constantly" as an all-time great NCAA memory, and I certainly don't care enough about it to make any sort of bet. Will it be showed again? Sure, but not in the all-time great shots context you are claiming IMO.

I think you're way off here with the hyperbole and that's OK. It's not personal. I just think Northern Iowa's historical choke job is the much, much bigger story. That's all people are talking about today. I've had one person mention the half court shot (because they know I'm a Texas alum) and over a dozen talk about the choke job.
 
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It's the video of it all that will live on. I don't know why this being a once-in-a-generation shot that makes for great replaying over and over and over is so hard to get.

Well, because, in my opinion, the shot, after a week or so, won't even really be remembered. Relatively speaking, it wasn't a very big game, these aren't marquee basketball schools, there were no memorable players, nobody is going to really make any noise at the next level for this to live on as a part of their resume, etc. It was a great play and probably the play of the day/weekend, but it doesn't even register as that big of a deal among the fanbases that were actually involved in the game. If the folks that should be invested in it above all others don't really care, why in the world would anyone else?
 
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I just don't see this being a signature ncaa tourney moment. I don't care enough to bet on it, but i will be surprised if it is shown regularly 5 years from now.
 
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I guess I lucked out. I was watching the game and switched during a time out. When I tried to switch back to the UT game, my "last" button didn't work, so I missed the last minute. I turned on the radio just as Texas scored the tying points. Listening to Craig Way seemed easier than having to watch it, in some strange way.

If I'm Taylor, I'm going pro. His heel injury should serve as a reminder of what can happen if you stay. I can't imagine Ridley's stock improved any after his injury.

Here's hoping someone other than Swoopes shines during the next 2 weeks. Kai is gone; Heard's a possibility I suppose; but in my mind, Shane should bulk up and be ready to start in September.

Hook 'em!!!
 
I just don't see this being a signature ncaa tourney moment. I don't care enough to bet on it, but i will be surprised if it is shown regularly 5 years from now.
You realize it is a once in a generation event, right? And that the Tournament highlights those kinds of plays on the regular?
 
But the effect of the visual isn't the same. If I see a highlight of Colt getting hit by Darius, it gnaws at me because we were so close to a title and that one hit is likely the difference. Same with Crabtree's catch. But seeing the UNI half court shot go in didn't make anyone feel sick, except for the players and coaches and their families. Heck I rewound it several times because it was so crazy. We were a only a 6 seed and we were going to lose eventually. Context is everything.
My point is that the Colt play is almost never shown. It's not viewed as a highlight. Nothing from that game is iconic.

That shot happens once every 35 years and it just happened again to Texas. It's the new Bryce Drew shot.
 
I think you are marginalizing the regular season. And when did winning 25 games stop being judged as a successful season? Most years 25 wins means you are a top ten team. It also means you are probably a 3-4 seed in the tourney, maybe even higher depending on who you beat to get there.

College basketball as a sport has largely marginalized the regular season.
 
Thanks for taking a poke at this.

I've been going back, systematically, and looking at trophy winners (conference, major BCS, and championship) and trying to find the lines about what we are REALLY trying to get to in terms of "good enough" offensive stats to see ourselves as a team in striking distance of a trophy again.

These are, with very few exceptions, the basic statistical profile that the trophy winners share going back to the start of the BCS. It's like buying runs instead of players in baseball--if we can get here, we have the profile to win game over the course of the season (though no guarantee). In the late 90s and early 2000s, like the OU championship, they had a rushing number closer to 4.3 but for the last 10 years 5.0 with the fewest carries concentrated to one single back (with the exception of Alabama this year who gave Henry almost 400 carries), this is the profile of trophy quality teams. You can actually use it to predict the outcome of BCS games that come down to offensive performance with striking reliability.

These aren't passive stats--they're an active proxy measure for the common methods of attacking, taking leads, and holding them (and staying out of injuries and see-sawing in close games). Sot they take an active eye to apply. But they are interesting.

It's not sufficient to win a trophy, but it does seem to be a highly correlated look into offensive performance. Conversely, many teams achieve this but do not win trophies because their defense doesn't hold leads. There's a lot to why this little woven cord of stats is important for trophy winners (QBR is how you get, or take back, leads/ rushing is how you hold a lead/ carries is about injury and player regression/ rushing TDs is about protecting leads when you have them and demoralizing opponents from fighting back).

I generally like your answers, but I just wanted to offer one intersting thing on the QBR.

Tulsa QB Dane Evans:
Freshman QBR: 78.3
Sophomore QBR: 120.9
ENTER STERLIN GILBERT
Junior QBR: 151.6

If this pattern holds, you have to see the opportunity for our QBs to break that critical QBR barrier. No idea of the probability--it's anything but assured. But look at, for example:

Heard:
Freshman QBR: 121.6

Swoopes:
Freshman QBR: 55.3
Sophomore QBR: 116.5
Junior QBR: 111.1


*Another interesting point: hold this profile up to Texas teams going back to 2004. You'll see a very interesting pattern. But you'll also see an interesting bump in last year's stats, in rushing, than we did in any previous year even back through 2008 or so--they is a bright ray of hope. At the bottom of our RB rotation were guys that absolutely were on trend for the 5.0 to 6.0 YPC and 26+ TDs. It's a huge ray of hope if you know what you're looking for. I think our running game might be back for the first time since Jamaal left. Or at least, there is a small mathematical glimmer that it could be occurring

Link: http://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/schools/texas/2015.html.
good stuff. You know I love me some Moneyball concepts.
 
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After this years "One Shining Moment", doubtful it makes many national highlight reels in the future, so yeah, I'd take that bet.

Crazy-Pills.gif~c200
 
No, I and apparently most others ITT do not believe it will be played "constantly" as an all-time great NCAA memory, and I certainly don't care enough about it to make any sort of bet. Will it be showed again? Sure, but not in the all-time great shots context you are claiming IMO.

I think you're way off here with the hyperbole and that's OK. It's not personal. I just think Northern Iowa's historical choke job is the much, much bigger story. That's all people are talking about today. I've had one person mention the half court shot (because they know I'm a Texas alum) and over a dozen talk about the choke job.
Who did Valpo lose to in the Tournament after Drew's shot?

How many times have you seen that shot?
 
Here's hoping someone other than Swoopes shines during the next 2 weeks. Kai is gone; Heard's a possibility I suppose; but in my mind, Shane should bulk up and be ready to start in September.

Hook 'em!!!

THe options are limited in every direction at the most important position on the field.
 
Liked it man, as usual. People are missing the point on the buzzer beater. It's all part of the March Madness branding. That anything can happen. It's as good a symbol as any when you need a quick impact clip. The circumstances don't matter that much. In fact, that's what makes the clip meaningful...that it could happen for or against any team, regardless of the names involved.

That Texas Baseball bit was funny.

You didn't write about MMA, but a random thought I want to place here. What makes some guys have heavy hands? Watching Mark Hunt fight again this weekend got me thinking. Is there a simple scientific answer? I've seen a million fights and can't tell the difference scientifically. A guy like Hunt can throw a punch and almost floor anyone, even without really landing it flush with max power. I see other big guys throw haymakers that land flush and don't seem to have the impact. What makes heavy hands? Even fighters can't really explain it. I know I've been hit by some guys that seem to have bricks for hands.
 
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I agree with you Ketch that was a one and 35 year type of game ending shot but on the contrary all I've heard today on sports talk radio or seen on sports talk TV is mention of the epic collapse by NIU, zero mention of the shot from Friday although when they cut it up to recap the tourney it will be in the highlight real. Just don't see it living on in infamy especially if there is another dramatic game ending shot in this tourney.
 
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Ketch, entertaining read as always. Just a couple of thoughts:

1. Iconic moments in Texas sports history: Street to Peschel in The Big Shootout/Game of the Century. That play was as iconic as VY for the win was, for 36 years. And the de facto national championship was on the line also.

2. It's hard to believe that Ricky Williams' ypc average as a freshman did not exceed 6.8 ypc. I had to go and check the math. I DO remember that at one point in the1995 season he was averaging over 9 yards per carry...as a fullback who had only about 10-12 carries per game. And he still almost reached 1000 yds on the year.
 

I just know that in my household and amongst my group of rabid Longhorn folk, we kind of laughed in disappointed disbelief after it happened and then it wasn't even a thing about 20 minutes later. Maybe we will see it on future NCAA tournament ads or something, but I just can't see it. The Crabtree catch, for just one example, stung 100,000x more than that shot. I remember every detail about the catch, the broken tackle, the run into the endzone, the "I dreamed it in my head" post game quote, etc. I bet nearly every person reading this thread remembers that catch in much the same way. That is a true, all-time heartbreaking moment. The way you're describing this shot is how I'd imagine Wildcats get when they talk about Laettner's shot. I suppose only time will tell.
 
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Ketch, there is no way on earth that they'll replay the half-court shot in anything like the volume of the Crabtree catch. Not even on the same level. And in no way is it as painful as watching Crabtree appear every time Texas plays Tech in any sport on TV. It hurt, but it didn't melt down a national championship like that Tech game. Not even close.
 
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I
I think the disconnect with Ketch and the majority on the board is semantics. While the shot may be replayed on loop along with all the other game winning shots that make March Madness well, madness.

The majority of Texas fans just aren't emotionally attached to the play one way or the other.

Was it disappointing? of course.

Was it devastating seeing a 6th seed, overachieving team, in its coaches first year lose to a team that everyone including this site said they could possibly lose too? Not so much.
 
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- Hield is the best player in college basketball. If Ben Simmons played like Hield, I would have more faith in him being the second coming of ... (insert cliche here).
It took Hield 4 years to become the player that he is today...Simmons is still just a frosh.
 
Well if Taylor is in the D league he sure isn't making much $$ there. Maybe $50,000 or $60,000 I think. Better to come back and everything paid for and a little Pell Grant $$ also.

If Simmons played like Hield his team would still be playing. Everyone blaming that coach but hell some of the blame has to go to Simmons also.
Simmons has his shortcomings but his situation at LSU with THAT team and coach is very different than what Hield has at OU or even Brandon Ingram has at Duke.
 
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Who did Valpo lose to in the Tournament after Drew's shot?

How many times have you seen that shot?
Well that's not exactly a similar situation considering Valparaiso didn't lose their next game in one of the worst choke jobs in recent memory. That's what people are going to remember because it was that epic of a collapse. The choke job trumps the shot, and that's been my experience today. It's the bigger story.

I've probably seen the Drew shot maybe 10-15 times the last 18 years. Not entirely sure, but I expect over time it will probably be similar or less for the Northern Iowa half court buzzer beater. I don't consider it hugely iconic or in the same league of other past game winning shots. I also watched ATH, PTI, and Sportscenter and none showed or even mentioned the NI shot once while the choke job was one of the main stories of all 3 shows.
 
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Liked it man, as usual. People are missing the point on the buzzer beater. It's all part of the March Madness branding. That anything can happen. It's as good a symbol as any when you need a quick impact clip. The circumstances don't matter that much. In fact, that's what makes the clip meaningful...that it could happen for or against any team, regardless of the names involved.

That Texas Baseball bit was funny.

You didn't write about MMA, but a random thought I want to place here. What makes some guys have heavy hands? Watching Mark Hunt fight again this weekend got me thinking. Is there a simple scientific answer? I've seen a million fights and can't tell the difference scientifically. A guy like Hunt can throw a punch and almost floor anyone, even without really landing it flush with max power. I see other big guys throw haymakers that land flush and don't seem to have the impact. What makes heavy hands? Even fighters can't really explain it. I know I've been hit by some guys that seem to have bricks for hands.
That Mark Hunt punch didn't even make sense. I never saw an angle that looked like he totally rocked him, yet rocked him he did.
 
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