As college football is close to entering a month-long dead period from February 5 through March 3, I thought it would be a good time to look at the state of in-state recruiting for the 2025 class as in-person visits are about to be on hold.
Let's start with the Top 10 in the current Rivals rankings...
Dakorien Moore - The 5-star receiver committed to LSU in August and seems more committed today than he was when he originally pledged to the Tigers. If the Longhorns are going to shake him from his commitment, it'll eventually have to start in earnest by getting him on campus.
Devin Sanchez - This one got away from the Longhorns last season and by the time he committed to Ohio State this month, Texas wasn’t even a factor.
Jonah Williams - The Longhorns are making up ground, but still trail the likes of Texas A&M and Oklahoma. Get. This. Kid. On. Campus. ASAP.
Michael Fasusi - Texas and Oklahoma are the teams to beat, even if the likes of Oregon, Texas A&M, USC and Ohio State keep knocking on the door.
Andrew March - There's some thought that the Aggies have emerged as a leader in his recruitment, especially after he visited A&M for its Junior Day last week. His sister is an A&M grad, so you can see why the Aggies have made a move, but Texas, LSU and USC are among the schools still heavily in the mix. March has been on the 40 Acres numerous times and one of the things that needs to happen in March is getting him back on campus.
Dorian Brew - A move-in from the Ohio area, the Buckeyes are heavy favorites for the speedy cornerback, but the Longhorns had him on campus last weekend and have given him some food for thought. The longer this recruitment goes on, the better the chances get for Sark and Co.
D.J. Sanders - It's tough to say where Sanders' recruitment sits because he hasn't been overly active in the recruiting process yet. The Longhorns will be expected to be in the middle of his recruitment, along with A&M, LSU and Oklahoma.
Adrian Wilson - The Pflugerville Weiss star has been committed to Oregon since the summer, but the Aggies are making a real push and the Longhorns were able to get him on campus last weekend, so it might be that his recruitment is just beginning in earnest right now.
Kaliq Lockett - Ohio State and LSU are the current top two, while the Aggies might be in the third spot. The Longhorns have offered and he's visited multiple times in the last 18 months, but there's a lot of work to do.
Michael Riles - The Longhorns are probably a betting favorite for the Port Arthur defensive lineman and it could turn into a Texas vs Texas A&M battle when it's all said and done.
Now let's look at the next 10 ...
Ty Haywood - Visited the Aggies this weekend for a Junior Day after not making it down to Austin last weekend for the UT Junior Day (as scheduled). Look for this to shape up into a Texas/Texas A&M/Oklahoma battle.
Kiotti Armstrong - After visiting Texas, Texas A&M and Miami in the last few weeks, it's safe to say that his recruitment is firmly underway. The Longhorns might have some momentum in this recruitment, but there's still a ways to go.
Riley Pettijohn - The Longhorns are in very good shape after he visited last weekend, but Florida and Michigan are among the schools he'll continue to explore in the spring. Texas might be a slight betting favorite.
Daylan McCutcheon - The Longhorns aren't really heavily in the mix at this point.
Lamont Rogers - After visiting Texas last weekend, he took in Norman this weekend (along with his father) and he'll visit LSU next weekend. It's hard to know exactly where the Longhorns sit inside of his unofficial top three, but getting him back on campus with his entire family will be critical.
Deindrae "Tiger" Riden - Wasn't able to make it to Texas last weekend, but the Longhorns will get him back on campus at some point. Is scheduled to visit A&M next weekend before the dead period kicks in. SMU is also heavily involved, but this could turn into a Longhorns/Aggies battle in the end.
Chad Woodfork - The Longhorns are probably the betting favorite because Texas is the only school he's visited multiple times thus far. It's not completely clear who the No. 2 school would be. Maybe Texas Tech.
Michael Terry - The Longhorns offered the talented athlete at last week's Junior Day and the Longhorns are among his top three. It might be safe to call Texas a betting favorite.
Kamauryn Morgan - Consider the Longhorns a betting favorite at this point, especially after his Junior Day visit last weekend. He's scheduled to visit both SMU and Baylor before the dead period, but the real competition is probably Texas A&M.
Jacorey Watson - The Longhorns are in his top three, along with LSU and Ole Miss. The Tigers are probably the betting favorite.
Three thoughts from all of this ...
1. The Longhorns have a lot of work to do in the 2025 class among the truly super blue chip prospects in the state. Among the top five players in the state, only Fasusi is a guy you'd suggest the Longhorns probably lead for at the moment and it's possible that the Sooners have a slight edge in that one.
2. Things look a lot better when you look at the prospects raked 11-20. It's possible that the Longhorns could sign more top-25 prospects than they did in the 2024 class, but maybe fewer 5 stars.
3. Texas will need to kill it out of state again in 2025.
No. 2 - A few more thoughts on Kenny Baker ...
* The word on the street is that Baker knocked it out in his interview with Sarkisian, which might help explain why Sarkisian isn't worried about Baker as a recruiter.
* While I will confess that I never heard a lot of anti-Bo Davis stuff while he was on the coaching staff, I have been a bit caught off guard by the number of people who have reached out to tell me that it was probably time for a change to occur. No one has said anything truly terrible, but it kind of feels like it might do everyone some good to hit the reset button.
* There's a feeling that Baker might be inexperienced as a recruiter, but that his willingness to give it his all in that department could generate better results in recruiting along the defensive line, which strongly suggests that there are people behind the scenes who felt like Davis could have used a rocket up his backside in that department (see section 3).
* It was pointed out to me on Sunday that it's pretty important for the Longhorns that Alfred Collins finds the light switch for an entire season and that perhaps he's a guy that needs a new voice in order to get the best out of him.
No. 3 - Say it ain't so, Bo ...
With the departure of Bo Davis to LSU, the Longhorns know they've lost a guy who developed the hell out of T'Vondre Sweat and Byron Murphy over the course of the last three seasons. In fact, you can add Keondre Coburn, Moro Ojomo and Barryn Sorrell to the list of guys he did really good developmental work with.
Outside of Coburn, none of the five were notable national-level recruits, yet Davis did real work with them.
Of course, none of those players were recruited by Davis and it's the area of recruiting that the Longhorns know needs to improve with new defensive line coach Kenny Baker.
Take a look at the hows and whys of the discussion...
2021
One of the very first recruits of the Sarkisian Era in Austin was Abiara, who stuck around for one season, realized that it wasn't happening for him in Austin and hit the Portal less than 15 months after signing with Texas. For those wondering, Abiara finished his sophomore season at SMU this season with 5 tackles and 1.4 tackles for loss.
2022
This is the class that will define Davis' time in Austin and was highlighted by the following:
* One national-level prospect (Bledsoe), who only played 80 snaps in the regular season and ranked 26th on the team in
@Alex Dunlap's market-share rankings.
* An out-of-state low four-star that is played one single snap in the 2023 season.
* An out-of-state high three-star prospect, who played 46 snaps last season and didn't create a single piece of production in his second season.
* An in-state high three-star prospect that didn't make it all the way through his second season.
Thus far, this group of players has been pretty dreadful. One guy is done and the three that remain have barely displayed a strong pulse when given game time. A big part of the Longhorns needing Trill Carter a year ago and multiple defensive linemen through the transfer portal this year is that this class has been a complete swing and a miss going into year three.
2023
Davis' only addition following the 2022 group was a risky out-of-state large human, who wasn't a consensus national-level prospect by the four major recruiting services, although you'd have to say he was the highest-rated out-of-state prospect that Davis signed in three full recruiting cycles. Mitchell is a player that the Longhorns have hopes for after playing 10 snaps in the regular season last year, but he's still a fairly big project.
2024
Davis' parting gift was two more high three-stars, although January is someone I think is better than that and certainly rated as the best player available at his position in the state of Texas.
The bottom line is that zero true super blue chips in three recruiting cycles isn't good enough, especially for a program that ranks fourth in the nation in total super blue chips on the roster and is regarded as one of the top programs for NIL in the entire country. Even Texas DC Pete Kwiatkowski ran circles around Davis in recruiting, serving as the lead recruiter for several super blue chip edge prospects on the roster.
As Baker comes into the program, the expectations are that the bar has to be raised.
Much higher.
No. 4 - Discussing the Class of Beef ...
When you see the turnover that takes place at almost every position on the field, it seems almost impossible that there hasn't been a single departure by Kyle Flood's 2022 Class of Beef as each player begins to head into his third season in Austin.
Typically, the next 12 months is right about the time when most offensive linemen start to find the light switch, if it's ever going to happen. Let's take a look at the prognosis of each player coming out of the 2023 season.
Kelvin Banks: What a blessing this young man has been for the program. Played 932 total snaps in 14 games this season and will remain the anchor of the entire offensive line through the 2024 season before he likely heads off to the NFL. The question surrounding Banks is whether the Longhorns will have someone truly ready to replace him when the 2025 season arrives.
D.J. Campbell: The former five-star prospect made good in his second season and finished with 831 total snaps in 14 games at right guard. He's not quite a star, but the expectations will be that he takes that next step in 2024 and 2025.
Cam Williams: Everyone is waiting to see what the big fella looks like now that the right tackle position is open for him to take. Although he played only 126 snaps in 14 games, hopes are high that he's on the verge of becoming a plus-starter for his final two seasons.
Cole Hutson: Here's where the first set of question marks really pop up with the players in the class. After serving as the primary player at right guard in 2022, Hutson found himself boxed out by Campbell at right guard this season and played only 126 snaps this season. With Hutson and Campbell each having two seasons of eligibility remaining, it's hard to figure out where the path to playing time comes in the next 24 months. Hutson will have starting aspirations before his career is over and he's a great option to have coming off the bench if there's a need. Will that be enough for Hutson? There's no way to get away from the fact that he's somewhat boxed out at the moment. Is there any way that he could redshirt in the next two seasons in an effort to buy him the 2026 season after Campbell graduates?
Neto Umeozulu: Here's another player that I have more questions than answers with, but the fact that he redshirted in 2022 gives him a lot more options than Hutson. Although many of us have wanted Umeozulu to take the left guard job away from Hayden Conner, the truth of the matter is that Umeozulu hasn't remotely played well enough in his 54 reps in 14 games to suggest that he warranted more. Per Dunlap's grading, Umeozulu was allowing disruption once every 9.40 snaps this season, which easily ranked as the worst number among the nine linemen that played as many reps as he did. He's got a LOT of work to do before he's pushing Conner out of the way. So, is 2024 just a growth year for Umeozulu before he takes over for two seasons after Conner departs? Would the coaches actually bench a senior with 1,500 career snaps under his belt if Umeozulu can close the gap? How much better would Umeozulu need to be in order to see him jump a player that has started 27 games in the last two seasons? The good news is that it makes sense that Umeozulu will see all of this out because his brother literally just joined the program and if possibly not starting in 2024 was truly an issue, you'd think this past window would have been the one to leave in and he stayed.
Conner Robertson: It feels like we learned that Robertson can play at this level based on his 117 snaps this season, but we haven't really learned if he's going to be a plus player. Like Umeozulu, it's very possible that he's set to be a two-year starter beginning in the 2025 season once Jake Majors departs. Of course, there's a good chance that he could have one hell of a battle on his hands with Daniel Cruz for that position. The good news is that with three seasons of eligibility, there's plenty of time for him to show some patience ... unless ... Cruz starts taking reps away from him in 2024.
Malik Agbo: By the end of the season, Agbo played 100+ more snaps at tight end than he did along the offensive line, which called into question whether he was still an offensive lineman (partly because he changed his number to 80) instead of a tight end. Looking ahead to 2024, it seems like he's THE jumbo tight end, which means that he has a definite role within the offense. Beyond that jumbo tight end position, I don't quite know what to make of him and his future. Is he ever going to start at tackle? I have some real doubts.
No. 5 - Three thoughts on the edge position ...
a. The added presence of Trey Moore coming through as a transfer has me wondering whether or not we might see a battle between Ethan Burke and Barryn Sorrell for the starting defensive end position opposite the edge spot that Burke thrived in for parts of the season in his first year as a starter. In terms of frames, Burke was listed at 6-6, 257 pounds coming into the season, while Sorrell tipped the scales at 6-4, 261 pounds, so it's not like there's anything physically (on paper) that Burke can't handle at defensive end. If you weren't going to make that move, why would you even bring in Moore (who has 2 seasons of eligibility remaining) with Colin Simmons coming into the program?
b. A 1-2 punch of Sorrell and Burke would represent a major upgrade at the defensive end position from the 1-2 punch of Sorrell and Justice Finkley from 2023, as Sorrell and Burke
ranked seventh and eighth on the team in Dunlap's market-share rankings, while Finkley ranked No. 17 (as a sub replacement level player). Meanwhile, adding Moore as the starter to the edge position gives the Longhorns the top playmaker in college football last season in terms of sacks and tackles for loss. That would allow true freshman Colin Simmons as the primary back-up at the edge position in his first season on the 40 Acres.
c. Third-year players Justice Finkley and J'Mond Tapp have some work to do if they want to carve out large roles in the 2024 defense ahead of the players mentioned above, especially when you consider that both ranked as sub-replacement level players last season. Given that Finkley played 226 snaps in the regular season, we're not talking about a small sample size. Tapp's sample size (93 regular season snaps) is smaller, which is worrisome when you consider that he didn't play in the playoff game against Washington. Both have to take significant strides in 2024 and they'll both know it.
No. 6 - Beating the math ...
One of the things that got a little lost in last week's discussion of super blue chips on the national level that importantly relates to the Longhorns are the following two truths:
a. The Longhorns aren't missing on Sark's super blues.
b. Texas has a 4.0% transfer rate when it comes to consensus super blues since 2020.
Both are pretty staggering numbers that warrant some inspection. Let's take a look at the list (minus incoming players):
QB Quinn Ewers
QB Arch Manning
RB CJ Baxter
WR Johntay Cook
OT Kelvin Banks
OG D.J. Campbell
OG Neto Umeozulu
LB Anthony Hill
CB Terrance Brooks
CB Malik Muhammad
S Derek Williams
Nickel: Jelani McDonald
* Of the 12 consensus super blue chips that Sarkisian has landed between 2022-24, 75% project as starters and eventual NFL players going into the 2024 season, which is important to note because super blue chips typically "hit" at that kind of rate as rates between 35-60% (depending on the position and ranking).
* Of the three consensus super blue chips that aren't starting, two are on the two-deep (Manning and Umeozulu) project as multi-year starters beginning in 2025 and the other one (McDonald) is entering his second season.
* The only other returning consensus super blue chip is Alfred Collins and he also projects as a starter/future NFL player.
* The only departure among consensus super blue chips players signed since 2020 is Ja'Quinden Jackson, who signed under Tom Herman and left before Sarkisian took over.
Guys, these numbers are pretty incredible.
No. 7 – Updated Texas Scholarship Board …
A few notes...
a. The Longhorns are currently sitting at 89 scholarship players after the commitment of Tiaoali Savea this week, which means that the Longhorns will probably need between 5-7 pieces of attrition to occur if Steve Sarkisian still wants to bring in a few more additions through the Portal.
b. No, Bert Auburn is not on scholarship.
No. 8 – BUY or SELL …
(Sell) Texas isn't winning the Big 12 Tournament.
(Sell) That'll be forgotten in a few weeks.
(Buy) Just a gut feeling, but maybe not until the spring.
(Sell) Maybe for the remaining Big 12 schools, but I don't think it will really impact the Longhorns much.
(Buy) Maybe all 12.
(Sell) I think there will be more pressure on Terry Joseph and Blake Gideon to improve the secondary.
(Sell) It'll be a solid group of five and maybe the best power conference outside of the SEC and Big 10.
(Sell) I suppose it depends on what you mean by one of the great defensive backs. Does that mean he ends his career as an all-American? I'll sell that.
(Buy) You know me too well.
(Buy) Yes, if he puts his name into the Portal. IF...
(Buy) Yes.
(Sell) Higher than 2006 Texas/Ohio State? It'll be close, but I'm going to say no.
(Buy) Leap of faith!
(Buy) IF he ends up in the Portal... IF.
No. 9 – Scattershooting on anything and everything …
... I can't tell if Lamar Jackson is the Joel Embiid of the NFL or the modern-day Tony Romo in the NFL, but watching him not get over the line against the Chiefs was tough to watch.
... Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs reminding us that they are unbeatable is just mind-blowing. Basically ... the regular season didn't matter in the AFC.
... New rule: I love the Taylor Swift cut-aways, but can we reserve them only for big moments? Otherwise, leave that lady alone.
... I'd feel a lot better about Charles Omenihu reaching the Super Bowl if he hadn't been suspended earlier this season following an alleged domestic violence incident.
... TCU/Baylor was one hell of a triple-overtime game on Saturday. The Horned Frogs have some guts, man. Texas will have its freaking hands full on Saturday.
... I'm a little worried for the fighting Rodney Terrys on Monday night with Houston coming to town. The Coogs can hoop, man.
... Luka Doncic dropping 73-10-7 on Friday night warrants an atta-boy. All of that on 33 field goal attempts? Truly sensational stuff.
... LeBron vs. Steph on Saturday night was pretty fantastic theater.
... It's really kind of hard to put into words the fast array of feelings I'm sorting through with the announcement that Jurgen Klopp will leave Liverpool at the end of the season. I love the man. He never lets me down. I wish the guy was my dad... or a brother... or a best friend. I've legitimately been emotional about it. I don't think I can compare it to anything else I have ever felt as a sports fan.
... Ding dong, the witch is dead.
... What are the mathematical odds of pulling this off without being in an accident? All you need is for one uncontrollable variable to go sideways and ... death?
... I watched my first WWE Royal Rumble in at least 20 years on Saturday night, mainly because Chad Hastings reminded me that it was free if I owned a subscription to Peacock. Some thoughts ...
a, Generally speaking, I had a pretty good time. I might watch Wrestlemania in a few months.
b. I felt like there were very few surprises. For instance, there was no way that Roman Reigns was going to lose the belt in a 4-way match and it be the third-to-last match on the card. The dude has almost gone a full presidential cycle without losing the belt and I'm supposed to believe that it would happen in a prelim match?
c. None of these dudes are Stone Cold or The Rock. It feels like the entire WWE is missing a star among stars.
d. Logan Paul should not be carrying a belt, but I get why he is. Kevin Owens carried him in that match like a total pro.
e. You could see Cody Rhodes beating CM Punk coming from a mile away. It just made sense. The WWE has totally lifted Rhodes into a belt-claiming position after back-to-back Royal Rumble titles. The runway has been cleared for him to take the belt off of Reigns at Wrestlemania.
f. The best part of the entire deal was watching everyone come out to their theme songs, especially for the women's Rumble.
No. 10 - George Michael Top 10 Songs ...
I found myself listening to the Elton John/Georgia Michael live version of "Don't Let the Sun Go Down On Me" and decided that it had been too long since I had done a deep dive on Michael ... one of the truly great voices of his generation.
So, this weekend turned into George Michael Weekend. Here are a few things I found myself thinking ...
a. At his very best, Michael is truly one of the giants of his era, but he has fewer great songs than you'd expect him to have. I found myself wondering why all weekend. I wish he had recorded more.
b. Why didn't he ever make a true R&B album? I really wish he'd leaned into this genre a little more. No, I don't consider "Faith" to be an R&B album. I found
this NY Times article that discusses him not recording R&B music in America, but there's no real explanation as to why.
Let's get on with the list ...
Honorable Mention: Jesus to a Child, I Want Your Sex, Somebody to Love, If I Told You That, Heal the Pain, Hand to Mouth, KiIller/Papa Was a Rolling Stone, Amazing, Outside, Fastlove, Monkey, A Different Corner and I Knew You Were Waiting
10. Everything She Wants
It was a tight battle for the No. 10 spot, but I had to go with a Wham song... a trend on this list.
9. Last Christmas
I'll admit it, I listen to this song about 500 times each December.
8. Freedom! 90
I've seen the video to this song at least 10,000 times.
7. Wake Me Up Before You Go-Go
It's about as 80s of a pop song as any 80s pop song has ever been. Its presence in Zoolander means it will always stay in the top 10.
6. Praying For Time
I wish Michael had more of this in his catalog.
5. Father Figure
I'm tempted to rank this one slightly higher ... it's an all-time banger.
4. One More Try
I freaking love this ballad. I wish he had an album with nothing but 10 of these on it.
3. Don't Let the Sun Go Down On Me
You can make a strong case that this song should be No. 1. If that's your position, I won't argue with you.
2. Faith
I struggle to rank this song because I don't know if it showcases him the best, but there's no getting around the fact that it's the song that made him a superstar.
1. Careless Whisper
It's been my favorite George Michael song since I was eight years old. It's been almost 40 years, so you're probably not changing my mind.
