Ketch's 10 Thoughts From the Weekend
- Thread starter Ketchum
- Start date
I cannot believe how many people here are more loyal to a head coach (with the worse record in 3 years of any UT Football program ever and one of the worst of all times in college football) than actually loyal to the UT. No MAN is ever bigger than the University of Texas.
Ok, here are some quick numbers to illustrate how hard it is to win.
10 wins seems to be the number that is bandied around lately as to what would be an "acceptable" year. I have seen others say that 10 wins should be expected at Texas (at minimum).
Using today's number of games played in a season, winning 10 games would be a winning percentage of 77% (13 games played including bowl).
Since Royal took over the program in 1957 we have had 6 coaches. That is 6 coaches in 59 years.
Here is the number of times each of them reached that season goal:
Royal:
20 seasons
10 seasons at 77% or above
That is 50% of the time
Akers:
10 seasons
3 seasons at 77% or above
That is 30% of the time
McWilliams:
5 seasons
1 season at 77% or above
That is 20% of the time
Mackovic:
6 seasons
1 season at 77% or above
That is 17% of the time
Brown:
16 seasons
9 seasons at 77% or above
That is 56% of the time
Strong:
2 seasons
0 seasons at 77% or above
That is 0% of the time
So in 59 seasons, 41% of the seasons (24) did UT finish with a winning percentage of 77% or above.
None of that is to say we shouldn't strive for excellence and expect results (wins), but this idea that is the norm for Texas to be competing for NC is false. It is false for EVERY OTHER CFB PROGRAM as well. I could do the same analysis for Alabama, Notre Dame, Michigan, etc, etc., and it would look eerily similar.
Fans are unrealistic. We should absolutely be better than we are right now, but hiring Herman, or Fedora, or Harbaugh, or a number of other names, isn't a guarantee of future success at the 10+ win a season level.
Has there been a cleanly well played game in the Big 12 this year?
I think the assumption they were trying to line up a FG is flawed. They had an extra lineman on that side and both H-backs shifted to the right. IMO, they were trying to get the edge for the first down but Baylor cut Swoopes off before he could get the in the clear. I think they wanted more time if they got the first down. They were trying to get the 1st with a conservative call and keep playing for TD or closer FG attempt. I do not feel they had total confidence in kicker.
He has shown fantastic burst on several runs. In fact, he showcased that burst on his 10 or 12 yard run in the BU game. He just is not as good at finding the holes right now. Also, foreman can get a 3 yard run out of no blocking and Porter cannot do so. Cannot argue with needing to recruit RB.
Hey now, just because we're from the same state doesn't mean we're all related. It's Iowa, not Arkansas. You have to have a pulse AND take the ACT to get into the state schools here.deal!
are you related to Suchomel?
I'm so jealous of people who find the absolute perfect memes. This is a meme right? Or is it a gif? Damn I'm old.
I think Strong's tenure needs to be done too, but that's a bit of hyperbole. His recruiting classes the last two years and the OC hire suggest he's turning things around. He did start pretty much from scratch. But the problem is he waits too long to address problems and seems utterly lost in making gameday decisions.
I'm 100% on board with getting a new coach. But not the way we seem to be doing it, which is to say, without an experienced AD. Why would anyone (including Herman) come to a pressure cooker like Texas when his immediate boss has ZERO experience in his job? Squabbling over replacing a coach is ludicrous when we don't even have a real AD.
if he lets another team carry him off the field, I'm in favor of his immediate firing. winning is expected; act like you've been there.
Mack just lost his fastball, but when he had it from 1998-2009, he was Hall of Fame good.
LonghornBuc said: ↑
1. The negative spin by this board on anything relating to Charlie Strong is far more over the top than any spin being put on a person who thinks Charlie MIGHT deserve to be our coach next year. Good grief, Baylor was ranked in the top ten, is still ranked in the top 20, had beaten OSU, a good team that just beat WVU, was playing with confidence from being undefeated and was playing for a playoff chance. Running down our opponents when we win is the height of hypocrisy.
2. Tom Herman may be the next Urban Meyer. Far more likely, he wont be. That's the realistic odds for any young coach coming up. What he is right now is a guy who coaches a team with enough talent to beat OU, but cant game plan and motivate his team to beat a far weaker team like SMU or an average team like Navy. Anyone who thinks Herman is a shoo in the be better than Strong is delusional.
3. Charlie has clear strengths and weaknesses as a head coach. That said, if you took all the posters and mods on OB and added their football knowledge together, it wouldn't equal that of Strong and his staff. Its fun to chat here about strategy, game decisions, etc. But those posters here who thing they know more football than Strong as delusional as the Herman fanatics. I expect lots of pushback from this statement, so I will just wait for those who think otherwise to show me their national championship ring while being a head coach, coordinator, coach, grad assistant or waterboy.
1. The negative spin by this board on anything relating to Charlie Strong is far more over the top than any spin being put on a person who thinks Charlie MIGHT deserve to be our coach next year. Good grief, Baylor was ranked in the top ten, is still ranked in the top 20, had beaten OSU, a good team that just beat WVU, was playing with confidence from being undefeated and was playing for a playoff chance. Running down our opponents when we win is the height of hypocrisy.
2. Tom Herman may be the next Urban Meyer. Far more likely, he wont be. That's the realistic odds for any young coach coming up. What he is right now is a guy who coaches a team with enough talent to beat OU, but cant game plan and motivate his team to beat a far weaker team like SMU or an average team like Navy. Anyone who thinks Herman is a shoo in the be better than Strong is delusional.
3. Charlie has clear strengths and weaknesses as a head coach. That said, if you took all the posters and mods on OB and added their football knowledge together, it wouldn't equal that of Strong and his staff. Its fun to chat here about strategy, game decisions, etc. But those posters here who thing they know more football than Strong as delusional as the Herman fanatics. I expect lots of pushback from this statement, so I will just wait for those who think otherwise to show me their national championship ring while being a head coach, coordinator, coach, grad assistant or waterboy.
Well said and totally agreeLonghornBuc said: ↑
1. The negative spin by this board on anything relating to Charlie Strong is far more over the top than any spin being put on a person who thinks Charlie MIGHT deserve to be our coach next year. Good grief, Baylor was ranked in the top ten, is still ranked in the top 20, had beaten OSU, a good team that just beat WVU, was playing with confidence from being undefeated and was playing for a playoff chance. Running down our opponents when we win is the height of hypocrisy.
2. Tom Herman may be the next Urban Meyer. Far more likely, he wont be. That's the realistic odds for any young coach coming up. What he is right now is a guy who coaches a team with enough talent to beat OU, but cant game plan and motivate his team to beat a far weaker team like SMU or an average team like Navy. Anyone who thinks Herman is a shoo in the be better than Strong is delusional.
3. Charlie has clear strengths and weaknesses as a head coach. That said, if you took all the posters and mods on OB and added their football knowledge together, it wouldn't equal that of Strong and his staff. Its fun to chat here about strategy, game decisions, etc. But those posters here who thing they know more football than Strong as delusional as the Herman fanatics. I expect lots of pushback from this statement, so I will just wait for those who think otherwise to show me their national championship ring while being a head coach, coordinator, coach, grad assistant or waterboy.
Hey JinSOTEX, nobody gives a darn that your ready. But thanks for at least not telling us again why you're ready.
The OB staff have been very open and honest to disclose that they stand to gain from a head coaching turnover. They will gain as an organization, and personally. Therefore, you should expect every member of the OB staff to do everything they can to support that to happen. They will be making the torches, lighting the torches, enciting the crowd and passing out the torches. This is what "journalism" is in the year 2016. Since our population lives under a constant bombardment of Orwellian thought control with the media as a whole, most individuals have become intelllectually lazy, and simply believe what the teleprompter tells them to believe. So, most will grab a torch and go look for something to burn down.
However, in this case, I can't come to any conclusions about Strong's tenure that would lead me to believe that next year would be any different whatsoever in terms of positive progress or program turnaround. If I thought that the program was heading on a positive trajectory, then perhaps I would agree that head coaching consistency would be preferable to a change. I simply don't see anything positive. He changed OC's last year under complete duress. He should have also changed DC, as the defense performance was actually worse that offensive performance. He completely neglected that side of the ball, and we have yet another year of a dumpster fire on defense.
I simply don't think we will need to worry about the scenario where we win out. I wish we would, and I would take another year of CS in a heartbeat if it happens. But, it ain't gonna happen. Not sure Herman will be our man, and I am not at all hopeful that the next hire will be the one, either. History says that is very unlikely. I am completely convinced that CS is not the answer, therefore the sooner we move on the better.
I am confused why the AD situation is not being resolved. It doesn't seem plausible to be able to recruit a new head coach and then his staff, without the AD situation being resolved. This is bizarre, and makes one wonder what is going on in the President's head.
Of course not. Do we really know you? Do you know me? From the information I have to work with, I respect him as a human being and I trust him to not embarrass Texas off the field. For the record, I respect what I know of you too.
Not sure one way or another. I just suggested a light sell.
If he makes it to the bowl game without being fired, then he makes it to 2017. No question. We're not going to up an fire him based on a bowl result.
Yes. And we have no reason to drag it out. If you want change do it after tcu
I think we have been more than fair with our coverage. You'd be hard pressed to suggest we had any reporting agendas throughout 2016. We've simply covered the team.
Being open with you guys about the ins and outs of our business doesn't mean that we apply that pressure for the sake of money and at the expense of our professionalism.
I think some really know me. Over the course of 16 years, some might say they know me fairly well. Most do not.
I respect him as a human being as well, but I think the higher character card than most card that is used at times by some as a reason for keeping him is misused. I respect him and there's a lot of reasons to like him, but like most of us, it's not all kittens and cupcakes. He's just a regular guy with all of its implications, and yes, I feel like I come from a decent place yo make that statement.
