Well, I've decided I'm letting my brain go to the SEC and the college football world of 2024 a year early.
For much of the last seven months, we've debated the bar for success with regard to the 2023 Texas Longhorns football team. Much of the consensus has centered on qualifying for the Big 12 Championship game and winning it.
I'm not here to tell you that these set of measures are incorrectly in place, but I am here to tell you that it's going to be an antiquated prism through which to view college football success for major programs.
Beginning in 2024, it's going to be all about the 12-team playoff, baby. Not much else is going to matter. Certainly not conference titles.
Qualifying for the playoffs is going to be everything. It will be the new minimum standard of success for every major program in the country. If you're in, you're in the cool kids club. If you're not in, you aren't cool.
Believe me when I tell you that one of the constant subplots of the 2023 season will be the constant discussion of what the season would look like if we're playing by the looming 2024 changes.
Take a look at the Top 15 from last year.
Alabama's 2022 season was a disaster, but it wouldn't have been in 2024 when it would have been in a position to make a run in the postseason, where anything and everything becomes possible.
Same with Clemson. Think about how different we would have viewed Penn State's season? Or Washington's. From the Alamo Bowl to being in the cool kids club.
Think about how Florida State, Oregon State and Oregon would feel about those late losses that crippled their chances of climbing those final desperate spots.
It's going to take over our lives.
With that in mind, I've decided to personally view the 2023 Longhorns through the standards of 2024. Consider it a dry run of sorts.
If the Longhorns finish in the top 12 this season when the playoff committee announces its final rankings, regardless of what happens in a potential Big 12 title game, it will represent three critical things.
a. The minimum bar for the next season.
b. Progress from last season when the Longhorns finished 20th in the final committee rankings.
c. The most success Steve Sarkisian has ever had in any season as a head coach.
It means we're talking about a likely 10-2, 10-3 or 11-2 season. There will almost certainly be seasons when 9-3 might get you in, but it would have got you somewhere between 13th and 15th a year ago.
As I mentioned last week, when a team has top 5 super blue-chip talent in college football like Texas possesses, it's hard to say the program should definitively squeeze its way into four spots. That isn't the case when you expand to 12 teams.
When Sarkisian goers into year four with a top-5 roster in the sport, no one is going to want to hear a single excuse if the Longhorns finish outside the top 12. That would represent failure in this new era of the sport.
From my perspective, if this is what awaits us in 12-15 months, it can't be a bad idea to start mentally preparing ourselves for what looms over the horizon.
Just finish 12th.
How's that for a season slogan?
No. 2 - 2024 super duper blue chip list ...
Back in February, I introduced something I called the Super Blue Chip rankings.
The idea was to showcase all of the names being discussed by all recruiting services and not just the ones popularized by myself or Rivals. What I hoped it accomplished was to fully display a true view of who the most valued prospects in the state of Texas really were.
Of the top seven players listed, the Longhorns landed three of them. Expanding the numbers out, Texas signed four of the top 13 and six of the top 20.
On one hand, those numbers are very good (but not great), but on the other hand, Texas finished with a top-four recruiting class. The Longhorns landed an outstanding seven super blue chips from the Rivals rankings.
In introducing the same exploration in the 2024 rankings, the data isn't overly kind to the Longhorns. Overall, there are 16 in-state players listed below that have at least one super blue chip ranking next to their names.
Ten are committed.
None are committed to Texas.
Of the remaining six, Duncanville defensive end Colin Simmons, Lake Belton wide receiver Micah Hudson, Timpson athlete Terry Bussey and Waco Connally defensive back Kobe Black are super blue chips that have Texas in their mix of final schools.
It's very possible that Texas will finish with a pair from the four - Simmons and Black.
While there's no reason to panic over Sarkisian's recruiting and the 2025 in-state state of things doesn't suggest a worrisome trend is taking place, there's no getting away from the fact that going 2-for-16 on any list of difference-makers in the state is a failure if you're the Longhorns.
Ironically, the player (Lancaster safety Corian Gipson) that Texas lost this weekend to Clemson didn't make the list of 16 difference makers compiled, which is both kind of ironic and a reminder of the larger problem in the 2024 recruiting class ... the overall results ... need to be better.
It's a reminder of what's on the line in the 2023 season (as if we needed another one of those). A big season has a chance to put all of this discussion in the rear-view mirror, while a disappointing season definitely doesn't help.
Let's take a look at the results, while also being reminded that the volume of overall super blue chips will grow as the 2024 prospects conclude their senior seasons.
What Defines a Super Blue Chip By Service in 2023?
LSR (10 prospects with at least a 6.0 grade)
Rivals (9 prospects with at least a 6.0 grade)
247 (11 prospects with at least a 95 grade)
ESPN (11 prospects with at least a 85 grade)
On3 (11 prospects with at least 95 rating)
Super-Duper Blue Chips (5 stars by all 5 sets of rankings)
Almost Super-Duper Blue Chips (5 stars by all but one of the 5 sets of rankings)
LB Justin Williams (Rivals/On3/247/ESPN))
Super Blue Chip-Plus (Prospects named 5 stars by at least one set of rankings)
RB Caden Durham (LSR)
WR Bryant Wesco (247)
DB Kobe Black (247)
DB Xavier Filsaime (247)
Ath Terry Bussey (247)
QB D,J, Lagway (ESPN)
4X Super Blue Chip (No five-star rankings)
RB Taylor Tatum (Rivals/On3/247/ESPN))
2X Super Blue Chip
DE Dealyn Evans (LSR/247)
DE Joseph Jonah-Ajonye (On3 and ESPN)
DB Selman Bridges (247/ESPN)
1X Super Blue Chip
OL Weston Davis (On3)
OL Ellis Davis (On3)
OL Casey Poe (On3)
No. 3 - Some thoughts on the data in section two ...
a. Even though I'm an outlier on Justin Williams in not having him rated as a 5-star, the consensus top three in the state couldn't be any clearer ... Simmons, Hudson and Williams.
b. It's kind of crazy that there are six other players that have a five-star grade from a single ranking service and four of the six are named by 247, which means that 247 has seven players from the state of Texas with a 5-star grade. You won't get much quibbling from me because I have all seven of those players rated as super blue chips, but I'm not sure I see all of them on the level of Simmons and Hudson.
c. I have my flag planted on Caden Durham Island, although I have asked myself if I think he'll be a first-round pick and his positional value makes me think I might need to drop him to a high four-star. Even if I drop him to a high four-star, I'd still have him ranked higher than anyone in the industry.
d. On paper, the loss of Bridges was bigger than Gipson.
e. On3's rankings of the three offensive linemen is kind of wild. I'll be fascinated to see how those players develop over the next 3-5 years. Texas offensive line coach Kyle Flood offered eight linemen from the state of Texas, but not a single one went to any of those three that On3 has ranked in the state top 10.
f. My highest-ranked players that didn't make the list of 16 are Melissa defensive end Nigel Smith (No. 11), Gipson (No. 14) and Brownsboro wide receiver GeKyle Baker (No. 16).
No. 4 - Quick thoughts on not landing Corian Gipson ...
I'm not going to lie to you, it's a blow.
While I don't have him quite slotted into the super blue-chip territory at this point, there's a very real chance he eventually is rated as that kind of prospect. I have him at No. 14 in the state of Texas for a reason.
What the loss does more than anything else is reinforce the importance that Kobe Black is to this recruiting class. The combination of Black and Wardell Mack to what Texas already has in the defensive backfield would make for a strong defensive back class. Missing out on Black would mean it ended in real disappointment.
If you're the Longhorns, you just keep plugging away. You never know how things might look in December.
In retrospect, the signs for Clemson were always there. It feels like @Suchomel kept reminding us of it for so long that we basically asked him to stop reminding us. It's a reminder that at times overconfidence can sometimes exist in the intel you receive. All of the Texas steam from the official visit weekend from a month ago just kind of died out before he got to the finish line. When should we have been more on top of it? That's a question we'll likely think a lot about in the next week.
No. 5 - A wee bit of math ...
For those keeping score at home...
Seventy-seven of the state's Top 100 prospects on my 2024 LSR Top 100 list have announced commitments.
Yet, seven of the top 11, nine of the top 22 and 11 of the top 31 prospects have yet to decide on a college.
Specifically, that's No. 1, No. 2, No. 3, No. 4, No. 7, No. 8, No. 11, No. 19, No. 22, No. 30 and No. 31.
No. 6 - My life can be so weird ....
This Aggies (and a number of others) got into the feelings on Saturday after I tweeted that the 5.9 rated four-star Gipson had committed to Clemson.
I know I shouldn't be surprised, but this time I really kind of was. Anything for those likes, I suppose.
No. 7 – BUY or SELL …
(Sell) I'll take the under.
(Sell) Probably needs to be 10 million more.
(Buy) C.J. Baxter, Ryan Niblett, Johntay Cook, Anthony Hill, Malik Muhammad and Derek Williams will all play.
(Sell) I'm going to go with health of players in the first two levels of the defense.
(Sell) Never say never, but Sark believes in his stuff and leans on his stuff. We didn't exactly see much go-go offense last year.
(Buy) I think he probably will be a more consistent physical presence than Jefferson was, even if that means he might not be a conference player of the year.
(Buy) Pretty much. Until this year, Texas hasn't hit double figures since Mack's last season.
(Sell) I think the fan base gives Sark tons of credit for having the quarterbacks on campus that are on campus. No one else gets credit for that.
(Buy) If by bags you mean they'll have very competitive NIL plans in place for both of them, that's a buy.
(Buy) It will be a major disappointment if the number is less than four.
(Buy) Yeah, he's displayed a rep for it in the past. I'll give him some benefit of the doubt.
No. 8 - Scattershooting on anything and everything ...
... If you didn't know who Brian Harman was before this weekend, you surely know who the hell he is now. What a dominant performance. Imagine being the best version of yourself in that type of situation and creating history ...
... Of course, Harman is an SEC guy.
... Rory hasn't won a major since 2014. Even Tiger and Phil have won in the last few years, but Rory has reached Texas Longhorns football level of drought in his career.
... All of Michael Phelps’s individual records have been broken. That's wild.
... Anyone else ever think that Buster Olney and Tom Arnold could be brothers?
... The Sixers are going to lose Joel Embiid in the next 12-24 months. I can feel it coming from a mile away.
... I'm not all-in on the USA women's soccer team, but I'm getting there.
... I'll be getting up at 6 a.m. tomorrow to watch Liverpool in the pre-season. Yes, I'm sick.
... GIVE US MOAR!!!!!!!
No. 9 - Barbenheimer Arrives!!!!
In a weekend that will go down as one of the most successful opening weekends in the history of cinema, Barbie and Oppenheimer introduced themselves to thirsty audiences.
The hype for both movies was so real that by the time both were receiving A+ ratings from critics and audiences alike, the idea of seeing both movies on the same day had become a verb ... doing the Barbenheimer.
Truth be told, that's not quite what I did. I caught Barbie on Thursday night and Oppenheimer in an IMAX theater on Friday afternoon (don't tell my wife!). It means I did both within 24 hours, so maybe it's the old man's Barbenheimer.
Here are my quick reviews of both.
Barbie (3 1/2 stars) - It's not a perfect movie, but I laughed throughout the movie and walked out knowing I had never seen THAT movie before. It's an American original. The acting of Margot Robbie and Ryan Gosling is Award-worthy. This is a movie that is going to have serious staying power in the decades to come for a lot of women. Kudos, Greta Gerwig. You did it.
Oppenheimer (4 stars) - Speaking of giving kudos to the director, "Attaboy, Christopher Nolan!" Oppenheimer has all of the hallmarks of a potential Best Picture winner. It feels big. It sounds big. It feels like something we've never quite seen before. Seriously, prepare yourself for this movie receiving 10 Oscars nominations in everything from Best Picture to Best Director to Best Actor to everything in the technical categories. The dialogue is top-shelf. It has elements of a great courtroom drama. Its editing is sublime. And the final 30 minutes of drama between Cillian Murphy and Robert Downey Jr. was absolutely gripping. It's one of the best films of the last 10 years.
No. 10 - The List: Top 10 movies of the year (thus far) ...
10. Creed III
There's a part of me that left the theater and wanted to see the Jonathan Majors solo project from this story. It felt like he was about to take over the world and now he's something of a Hollywood mess/disaster in making. Still, he's great in this movie. I feel the same way about Michael B. Jordan. I don't know that I loved everything Jordan did as a director, but I loved that he took some chances.
9. Blackberry
The best thing from Canada since ... the Blackberry? Dennis Reynolds leaves Philadelphia and steals the show in this one.
8. John Wick: Chapter 4
I do not agree that it's the best movie of the series, but it is excellent and is full of set pieces that we won't ever forget as viewers.
7. Are You There God? It's me, Margaret
My daughter is nine, so I'm not sure she's quite ready for it, but in a couple of years I expect this to be one of her favorite movies. It's precious. Don't be shocked when Rachel McAdams morphs into Jennifer Garner before your very eyes.
6. Air
Ben Affleck, Matt Damon, Jason Bateman and Chris Tucker all together in a story of creating the Air Jordans? It was even more enjoyable than I expected. Affleck is sneaky great in this.
5. Barbie
Am I underrating what might turn out to be the movie success story of the year?
4. Rye Lane
This movie is streaming right now on Hulu and all I can tell you is that it is one of my favorite romantic comedies of the last decade. It's fresh. It's funny. The chemistry between the characters is paramount. It's the movie you've possibly never heard of and didn't know you needed until you watched it.
3. Past Lives
It's a modern-day love story that feels completely authentic in every way. It's well-acted, well-directed and well-told. By the end, I don't even know what I am supposed to feel, but man, it makes you feel.
2. Spiderman: Across the Spider-Verse
It might be the most spectacular animated movie I have ever seen. Yet behind all of the incredible visuals is a story with soul with characters we are connected with. If the final of the trilogy sticks the landing, we're talking about one of the truly all-time greats.
1. Oppenheimer
It's simply an incredible spectacle with world-class acting, direction and technical skill. It might just be Nolan's greatest masterpiece.
Last edited:
