You can't win them all.
When it comes to college football recruiting, it's as much of a golden rule as anything else, a constant reminder that the challenge of winning the talent development game is like trying to beat the dealer in Vegas ... you can do it ... hell, you can make a living on it ... but it's much easier said than done.
In the most generic terms possible, high-stakes recruiting hits like a coin flip.
One of the quiet secrets of the Texas success from the last few years hasn't been that it has landed so many super blue chip prospects as much as it has actually hit on a higher number of super blue chips than the basic math involved in the discussion typically allows for.
Texas is hitting on Kelvin Banks, Quinn Ewers, Anthony Hill and Colin Simmons way more than it has been missing on Johntay Cooks. The key to the 2025 season might hinge on UT's ability to continue to do so.
Of the 14 non-true freshmen super blue chip prospects/players that the Longhorns have on the roster, nine or 10 of them look pretty locked into starting positions. Let's take a look at the players in the group that have the least certain futures.
RB C.J. Baxter - The third-year back from Florida is one of the most difficult guys to discuss in the entire program. He's good enough to have started as a true freshman for a Big 12 championship team, but never truly splashed during that season in a way that solidified his status as a player. Then he gets hurt going into last season. So, what is he in 2025? A locked-in starter and future pro? A still-rehabbing unproven entity? All of those things at once? A few? Everyone will have a strong opinion on what can be expected in 2025, but if you look up the word "wildcard" in the dictionary, you'll find his smiling face next to it.
S - Xavier Filsaime - Am I allowed to raise my hand and admit that it was concerning that Filsaime didn't so much as create an ounce of excitement in his first season and usually 5-stars at least create some excitement behind the scenes? He's going to enter the spring behind Jordan Johnson-Rubell in the pecking order at safety and young studs/recovering players breathing down his neck for snaps.
OG Neto Umeozulu - Other than Johntay Cook, you'd have to say that the older Umeozulu is currently the biggest bust of the Steve Sarkisian era from a recruiting standpoint. He's going to get a chance in this fourth season of eligibility to emerge as a starter, but right now he's just a player that hasn't been good enough that you'd love the staff to be able to upgrade on in the Portal if at all possible.
S Derek Williams - There's an alternative universe out there where he's the best returning defensive back on the team, but in this universe he's coming off of a major injury and is facing immense competition for game reps going into the season. Is it realistic to think he can push Michael Taaffe and Jelani McDonald out of the way? I don't think it's unrealistic, but it's hard to believe that he'll surge into a starting role over either of those two players at this stage of proceedings. Check back in August.
Of those four, would you bet on more than one being a starter this season? It feels more likely on offense right now than defense.
No. 2 - A Question For The Ages ...
I found myself stumped all weekend over the following question ... if we were to do re-rankings of the 2021 recruiting class, which player would be ranked higher - Quinn Ewers or Shedeur Sanders?
On one hand, Ewers accomplished more as a college player in leading the Longhorns to back-to-back national semifinal appearances.
On the other hand, Sanders is going to be drafted much higher in the upcoming 2025 NFL Draft ... and well ... isn't that telling us the story?
Anyway, I thought I would take a look at the 2021 recruiting class and what it could look like with a re-ranking. Yes, there were incredible busts (hello, Tommy Brockermeyer!). Yes, most of the biggest hits still came from the top of the recruiting lists. No, this isn't a class that is propped by under-the-radar names in bucketloads, lifting the weight that the higher-rated prospects were supposed to carry.
Honestly, it was hard to come up with 25 truly plus players. So, I just stuck with 20.
(Previous re-rankings)
* The 2020 State of Texas Re-Rankings
* The 2019 State of Texas Re-Rankings
* The 2018 State of Texas Re-Rankings
20. UCLA wide receiver J. Michael Sturdivant
19. SMU defensive back Isaiah Nwokobia
18. Texas A&M offensive tackle Dametrious Crownover
17. Texas A&M defensive tackle Albert Regis
16 Miami tight end Ellijah Arroyo
15. Texas offensive guard Hayden Conner
14. Texas edge Trey Moore
13. Vanderbilt tight end Eli Stowers
12. LSU quarterback Garrett Nussmmeier
11. Texas A&M defensive tackle Shemar Turner
10. Texas - S - Andrew Mukuba
Credit to On3 for having Mukuba as the No. 6 player in the state. That ended up being a better evaluation than everyone else's.
9. Oklahoma - S - Billy Bowman
Ninth is exactly where I rated Bowman when he came out of high school and it is where I'm sticking him now.
8. Texas - TE Ja'Tavian Sanders
It's sometimes easier to remember what a guy doesn't do than what he did and I sometimes wonder if that's the case with Sanders, who underwhelmed some Texas fans but still ended up being one of the best players in this class by a lot.
7. Edge - Arkansas - Landon Jackson
Oh, man, if only the Longhorns landed Jackson back when he was a recruit and didn't have to settle for his younger brother.
6 - Alabama - QB - Jalen Milroe
Milroe is almost an impossible player to grade because there were moments when he was the best player on the field against Georgia and moments when Alabama fans wanted to run him out of the stadium.
5. Texas - QB - Quinn Ewers
Is this the right spot?
4. Ohio State - OL - Donovan Jackson
A first-team All-American and three-time first-team All-Big 10 selection for the Buckeyes at guard.
3. Texas - RB - Jonathon Brooks
It feels a little crazy that I have him ranked this high, but there's no one behind him I feel comfortable rating above him.
2. Colorado - QB - Shedeur Sanders
I totally dropped the ball on this ranking coming out of high school. Shame on me.
1. Texas DT - Byron Murphy
No one had him ranked higher than No. 45 in the state and Rivals actually had him listed as a high 3-star. Shame on all of us.
No. 3 - The Texas Recruiting Class by Rankings Tier ...
I think you'll find this is a fun way to look at the nation's No. 1 ranked recruiting class.
Super Duper Unanimous 5-star
S Jonah Williams
Super Duper Unanimous Super Blue Chip
WR Kaliq Lockett
DT Justus Terry
3X Super Blue Chip
WR Jaime Ffrench
DE Lance Jackson
S Kade Phillips
1X Super Blue Chip
QB KJ Lacey
Ath Michael Terry
DE Smith Orogbo
LB Bo Barnes
CB Graceson Littleton
1X National Top 100
WR Daylan McCutcheon
TE Nick Townsend
DT Myron Charles
No. 4 - Put Some Damn Respect on His Name!!!
It's possible that Xavier Worthy did such a number on our collective mindsets with regards to contributing as a true freshman that we've all come to largely underrate the season than Ryan Wingo just enjoyed.
Did you know that Wingo's 472 yards receiving in 2024 represented the sixth most yards by any freshman in school history? Only Worthy (981), Roy Williams (809), BJ Johnson (698), Jaxon Shipley (607) and Mike Davis (478) ever had more.
I'm not peeing down your leg and telling you that it's raining outside. I'm not suggesting that he had a special season, but he ended up producing a lot more that is indicative of much bigger things to come than people probably realize. For instance, his numbers are pretty similar to Matthew Golden's at Houston right before he exploded this year at Texas.
We might not be able to quite put a guarantee on the box with his name with regards to being an A-level receiver going into next season, but he's not that far away from that type of status, either.
No. 5 - Some statistical perspective ...
In the history of Texas football among freshmen, Colin Simmons finished third in sacks (9.0) and tackles for loss (14.0) ... all-time.
No. 6 – Pure randomness ...
* If I were Steve Sarkisian, I'd give serious consideration to hiring a full-time special teams coordinator and not having Jeff Banks as the special teams coordinator or having multiple defensive backs coaches.
* I wonder if the coaches had it to do all over again if Steve Sarkisian might play Jordan Washington at backup tight end a little more in 2024, given how much he's going to have to play in 2025?
* It feels like this spring is pretty make-or-break for Ryan Niblett. It's either going to happen soon or you'd have to believe he'll be considering Portal options.
* It'll be fascinating to hear Sarkisian answer questions about his kickers in the spring. What can he possibly say?
* Texas only has one running back on the roster that averages more than 5,0 yards per carry... walk-on Colin Page.
* If Colin Simmons is the team's best pass-rusher, Anthony Hill is the second-best, Trey Moore is third-best and Brad Spence is the 4th-best... who is the 5th best? Is it Ethan Burke? Colton Vasek? Liona Lefau? Lance Jackson?
* We're 6 sections deep into the column and there hasn't been an Arch Manning reference yet? Don't get used to that.
No. 7 - Must-See TV ...
It turns out all that the SEC needed in its quest to deal with South Carolina in women's basketball was to merely bring Texas into the conference.
Dominance over. Easy peasy.
Seriously, what a moment for Vic Schaefer's program on Sunday, especially after getting dealt with like road kill when these two teams met a few weeks ago. Yet, a Vic Schaefer team does come with a guarantee on the box and you just knew that the Longhorns would bring the heat in the re-match.
Now Texas looks like a No. 1 seed in the Tournament and a team that should be rightfully disappointed if it doesn't make the Final 4.
You never have to question whether he's the right person for his job.
No. 8 – BUY or SELL …
(Sell) I just don't see any way that is possible.
(Sell) I don't know why he would have fewer yards per game at this point.
(Sell) Nah, you can and should rest easy.
(Sell) January of 2027? Yes.
(Buy) It doesn't sound like it's going to be a long journey.
(Buy) I think either Ryan Wingo or DeAndre Moore is a smart bet.
(Buy) Sure.
(Sell) I think his family will leave NIL money on the table in the name of not having that kind of cloud hanging over his head.
(Buy) Absolutely. That's the level they are trying to crash through.
(Buy) My mind changes all the time. Ask me again in a week.
(Buy/Sell) Someone would take Manning and develop him. No way is Sark giving up Terry for one season of either Broughton or Collins.
(Sell) I reject the notion that there's nothing that Chris Del Conte could do and that he had to hire Terry. I think we've made that Boogie Man up in our heads and it isn't/wasn't real. Yes, Texas needs to make the Tournament if he's going to return. It's iffy beyond that.
No. 9 – Scattershooting all over the place …
... It feels like every time I look up, someone in the SEC is giving Oklahoma a reminder that the Sooners aren't in the Big 12 ... in any sport ... any longer.
... I don't know who is going to win the NCAA men's Tournament, but I know that none of us should get too frisky with Kansas when we fill out our brackets. That's a very "meh" team that let an even more "meh" KSU squad punk it out in Manhattan. Whatever Jerome Tang is as a college coach, he isn't scared of the Jayhawks.
... There was never a day in Eric Allen's life as an NFL player when he was a better football player than Darren Woodson. Honestly, this shouldn't be remotely this difficult.
... Hubie Brown is about to call his final NBA game at the age of 91 and I have no reservations in calling him the best color analyst in the history of basketball. He's the goat like Michael Jordan is the goat.
... It looks like I missed nothing by missing UFC 312. There was absolutely nothing about a Dricus Du Plessis/Sean Strickland rematch that did it for me.
... Liverpool lost in the FA Cup to a bad Championship squad and I'm not even bothered. Just focus on the big stuff.
No. 10 – The List: Ethan Hawke
True story ... somehow I went into this week without ever having seen any of the Richard Linklater "Before" trilogy movies. I like Linklater. I like Hawke. I love romantic movies. It all feels like it should have been my jam and it never was.
Until this week when I knocked out all three thanks to "Before Sunrise" being featured on The Rewatchables podcast.
While watching the trilogy, it was hard not to think about a Hawke top 10 because it feels like seven of the top 10 HAVE to be in the top 10 ... but in what order?
Does Hawke even move the needle? I've always been a fan, but he's never been someone that puts my butt into a theater. I'm curious to see if there's even a reaction to the top 10.
Let's get to it.
Honorable Mention:Born to Be Blue, First Reformed, Blaze, The Northman, The Purge, Gattaca and The Magnificent 7
10. Before The Devil Knows You're Dead
My favorite thing about this performance is how it ends with Hawke running away scared, never to be seen from again.
9. Alive
I stumbled across this movie for the first time a few years ago and it's a banger. Give it a watch if you've never seen it.
8. Juliet, Naked
This one sneaks into the top 10. An excellent rom-com. Very underrated.
7. Reality Bites
Freaking Troy. Does anything else even need to be said?
6. Before Midnight
It feels unfair to rank it third, but one of the three had to be in the third slot and the lack of honor falls to Midnight.
5. Before Sunset
One of the best sequels of all time. I gave serious consideration to ranking this above Sunrise.
4. Boyhood
I've only seen this movie twice, but I think I might love it more than any movie I've only seen twice. That feels like a big compliment that some might think isn't.
3. Dead Poet's Society
Objectively, this is the best movie he's been in during his career, but it's not the best Ethan Hawk movie. I'm slotting it at No. 3.
2. Before Sunrise
I can't believe I just watched this movie for the first time. It's a legit fantastic romantic classic and the ending is borderline perfect.
1. Training Day
This might be a hot take because it's not any of the Linklater movies, but this is the role of his career for my money. While sharing the screen with Denzel Washington at his apex, Hawke doesn't budge an inch as "Jake" and reinvented what Hawks was capable of as an actor moving forward.
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