Ketch's 10 Thoughts From The Weekend (About the quarterbacks... Part III)
- Thread starter Ketchum
- Start date
You were dismissive of an earlier response questioning the quality of last years team when OP pointed out how some of their odds-defying results skewed what kind of record the 2020 version actually earned.
I just could just as easily and lazily refute your stats with the fact that Casey still has a higher passer rating through his first 8 this year than any Texas QB since…Colt? When you view the larger sample size, it looks like Casey hasn’t been as bad as you lay out.
But you objectively point out that Casey has been mostly poor by breaking down his quarter-by-quarter stats, the last few games. I agree with you. It’s hard to dispute.
So if want to call a spade a spade with data, you need to allow consistency when other finite examples (last years results do not reveal a 7-3 team; they more objectively represent a 5-5 team) are introduced.
Hopefully I’ve made sense.
All I've said about last year's team is that they were pretty good. Nothing remotely better than that.
It wasn't anything close to a disaster. They can't quite get over the hump of just being pretty good.
Your definition and my definition (and probably most everyone else's definition) of "abysmal" is not the same. I'm saying that his "overall QB play" has been "mediocre" overall for the past 4 games (excluding Blow U). He was very good vs Blow U overall: 390 yds and 5 TDs with 0 INT. Generally good in the 1st half and abysmal in the 2nd half for the past 4 games.
I think we need to add about 8 offensive linemen. Hopefully 3-4 are portals. We need starters, depth, and guys who can be developed. Our numbers there are too low too.
I'm just talking about it all combined in this 1-3 stretch, but I feel you.
I fully understand your wanting to not give the staff a free pass. So, let's agree there and remove that caveat from what's next...
Would you agree that this roster is lacking Big12 starting level players at rather important positions? OLine, Edge Rusher, Linebacker and outside of Worthy at WR, as well.
Would you also agree that beyond starter level there is limited to NO depth?
I just want to make sure I understand your evaluation of the talent level on this team.
Personally, I think the depth of the roster issues are fully exposed this year. Good news, and I think we'd agree this was a missed opportunity...that the Portal can help in a number of areas this off season.
Top end Big 12 talent? Of course, I talked about it all off-season. Back when people were shocked I didn't think this team would be in Dallas in December.
Depends on the position. Most non-elite teams have depth issues.
The 2005 Texas team had terrible OL depth.
We don't disagree. I merely think what IS available should make for better than .500... but not better than .750.
Thanks.
I fully understand your asking people their predictions preseason, but that really is useless. We're fans and typically are overly optimistic as a whole.
Personally, I never thought the OLine would be this poor and literally no one behind them. If you want to, partially, blame Flood and Sark for not hitting the portal better...I can get behind that. However, the amount of points we've scored this year behind this line may actually be a larger feather in Sark's cap than the amount of indictment they should take for not fixing it in 1 offseason.
Zero from the edge, which you warned us about, and the state of LB position...really make this D struggle.
I've asked people for their pre-season predictions as a means to point out that culture issues weren't believed to be a major point of consideration at all in the off-season.
I realize it can be confusing when I'm involved in 100 conversations at the same time.
Your beloved passer rating stat fails to take into consideration:
- how productive and chain-moving a QB is running the football
- how many CLUTCH passes were completed to make key 1st downs and score game-winning points
- much like a PG, how the play of the QB makes the entire O play better
- the LEADERSHIP strength of the QB which affects the entire team
The passer rating is valuable data to analyze. But it doesn’t measure everything about QB play.
So I repeat, Sam Ehlinger never had a game as empty as the one Hudson had at Arkansas. Not one. That doesn’t mean Hudson won’t rally back from that dismal showing. I believe the talented and hard-working young man will succeed as a QB at Texas. But that pup needs to learn to bite, to be aggressive and TAKE COMMAND under center.
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anon_v7x9c7xxmv5dr
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Lol what? Teams that are pretty good usually play .500 ball against the best teams?
Is this the logic that led you to Shaka was a damned good coach?
The stat is not an end-all, be-all, but is does eliminate confirmation bias.
Sam had four games out of 10 in the regular season when he played significantly worse than CTs combined output from the last four games.
CT has been better than Sam bc Sark's offense is much better for QBs than Herman's.
CT would have terrible numbers in Herman's offense and would have to run the ball himself every drive to put points on the board.
Herman's offense the last two seasons was a national top 20 outfit.
Sam had limitations.
Why do you keep pointing out how crappy Casey has been but continue to champion that Sark has way better talent in the QB room than last year? Not trying to be an ass I am just trying to understand.
I mean... some of those replacements and decisions to not replace them were actually Sark decisions.
You continue to fail to factor in the QB runs and the clutch plays, using last season as an example, that determine whether Texas comes from WAY behind to force OT against Tech & OU (in the final seconds) and to win 2 of 3 OT games. You’re judging the quality of QB play entirely on the flawed Passer Rating.
You would greatly enhance your credibility as an “expert” analyst if you widened your knowledge of the QB position beyond just the Passer Rating.
k.
I'm not the guy trying to defend Sam's uneven and at times really poor play with his magic scrambling ability. He was not remotely good enough last year.
You would enhance your credibility as a poster with a good opinion if you widened your knowledge of what he actually did on the field last year.
What a bunch of BS. So, Arkansas, OKSt, Baylor all have such better talent than Texas. Uh huh. I’m guessing ISU does too. Poor Texas, just no good players. What a joke. I’m not a Herman apologist, but did this narrative exist with him, even though he inherited Strongs players?
We have three or four of the most talented players we’ve had in a long time, all at the same time, along with some other guys that will be on NFL rosters. Ridiculous. This staff has been below the bar so far. Period.
Both arguments have some merit. Sark inherited a bit of a mess...a team with potential, yes. But also a team with a culture of mediocrity, a week offensive line and a non-existent pass rush. Has Sark underachieved? So far, I would say "yes." I expected better, especially on defense. But the bottom line is that this is Sark's first year and he is coaching Herman's players. He deserves a chance to right the ship, without everyone (especially our head Mod) crucifying him right out of the gate.
The 2020 team was objectively a 5-5 team. I explained that in earlier threads; and that’s with two players on the that team we haven’t come close to replacing.
In fact, THIS team with putrid OL/DL production even building double digit leads against three ranked opponents - sporting a combined record of 23-2 - is in some respects, remarkable. If I were a half-glass full person, I could just as easily reason, “wait until you see what Sark will do with improved talent in the trenches, when more players are exposed to his system [and PK’s], and Casey/Hudson actually have more than a second to throw a pass.”
And based on all we have to go off, which is our subjective view of the 8 games to date, I could just as likely to be correct as someone who insists on only pointing out the glass-half-empty side of things.
The point that many on here are trying to make is that things are potentially NOT as bad as they seem. Outside of Arkansas, Texas legitimately could’ve/should’ve won X games. And the reason we lost close games could very well be that Baylor/OU/Okie State are simply better than Texas.
Anyone claiming to know the sky is falling is simply guessing, and there is no upside in stating we’ve chosen yet another coach whom isn’t good enough. It’s irritating. It’s unproductive. And most of all, it’s still an unknown.
Let’s let the next two years play out. When we know, we’ll know.
No. I was just hinting at the crazy expectations going into this season (and every other one since Mack’s last. Not so much by you. You weren’t predicting playoff appearance or B12 Championship. This team wouldn’t have surprised me to make it to that B12 championship game any more than I am surprised where we currently stand. I think most had us at 5-3 or 6-2 at this point on the high side. We are seeing the low side reality. True to last year, the last three losses were winnable. one less dropped ball here, one less penalty there. I do admit that I didn’t see Baylor or Arkansas coming. Having said that, Baylor is a solid football team. (I hate admitting that). This Longhorn team is still really close. It just has to find development or replacements for thone missing quality starters and upgraded depth.
I think we are 2-3 WR, 3 OL, 2-3 DL, 3 LB and 2 DB away from being able to impose will in games and actually execute the “all gas” mentality. I like that approach of having a “try and stop us!” attitude rather than a “just hold on” mentality. It takes more than Bijan and Worthy and Overshawn.
This loss defined a bad season. Losing any more will tell us the character of these players.
I think what this all boils down to is that @Ketchum has a much different definition of what a “good” football team is than we do. It’s the only thing I can come up with given the objective measures you and I have pointed out, and him still insisting those measures qualify as “good” or “pretty good.”
