Ketch's 10 Thoughts From The Weekend (About the quarterbacks... Part III)

[TilGabriel]

It was a pretty big issue. He turned into a guy that labored to throw the football.

DJ U is doing this as we speak. I watched him throw three passes that hit the turf before a wr under ten yards away Against syracuse. He is laaaaaabbbboooorrring to throw.

literally clutches the football and is scared to let it loose

 

[1JTB6806]

This season isn’t good based on what we think Texas can be because of everything that does not include results on the field. We think Texas should contend for the conference title every year because of the money at its disposal, its highly ranked recruiting classes, etc.

But if we were to base what we think Texas can be solely on what has happened on the field in the last decade? The numbers clearly show that 2018 was the exception, not the rule. On the field, this team is exactly who it has been for the last two years, and on the whole, the last decade.

It lost to OU. That’s generally what Texas teams have done for the past decade.
It has a losing record against ranked opponents. No different than what Texas did the last two seasons, and what Texas has generally done for the past decade.
It lost on the road to a Power 5 non conference opponent. That has happened every time since 2012.

Sadly, this post is full of truth and people like @Ketchum are pretending otherwise.

 

[fern]

That's the cloud that looms all week.

Ketch - What are folks saying inside the AD's office regarding the cluster of a year that has transpired that you can relate?

In you opinion will Sark force PK to run his defense to fit his players rather than the opposite which is what we are seeing?

CDC has got to be completely disappointed in this year correct?

Man, watching Harsin on the Auburn sideline knowing that he could be here is a kick in the gut.

 

[Keep Fred]

Your response to my comment is not on point. I have tried to be very polite and took a long time to explain my points because I think they are being highly confused in all these comments.

• Explain to me how the team Sark inherited was Good given the lack of QB, Edge Rusher and LT that were identified as problems pre-season to which answers were not forthcoming on the roster he inherited.
  • Telling me I thought they might have been 8-4 or 9-3 preseason or others on OB thought that does not explain to me why it was a Good Team. It explains to me how people drank the Kool-Aid once again.
• Explain to me the available Transfer Portal OL that still had not committed a reasonable time after Sark was hired and Flood was in place, that have done well at where they landed, that Sark had a probable shot at and the back story as to why Sark did not pursue them.
  • And using Sark's comments that they did not need the OL help is not an explanation, but is likely his knowing there was nothing out there and his trying to give confidence to his OL.

There are talent issues on our roster. Yes. But Arkansas, OSU, Baylor, and even OU also have talent issues. Neither us nor any team we’ve played is loaded with talent. Losing any individual game from this list isn’t necessarily bad, but going 0-4 against those four opponents is abysmal. Are you suggesting that we have such little talent that going 0-4 against those 4 teams is an acceptable outcome?

 

[1JTB6806]

Your response to my comment is not on point. I have tried to be very polite and took a long time to explain my points because I think they are being highly confused in all these comments.

• Explain to me how the team Sark inherited was Good given the lack of QB, Edge Rusher and LT that were identified as problems pre-season to which answers were not forthcoming on the roster he inherited.
  • Telling me I thought they might have been 8-4 or 9-3 preseason or others on OB thought that does not explain to me why it was a Good Team. It explains to me how people drank the Kool-Aid once again.
• Explain to me the available Transfer Portal OL that still had not committed a reasonable time after Sark was hired and Flood was in place, that have done well at where they landed, that Sark had a probable shot at and the back story as to why Sark did not pursue them.
  • And using Sark's comments that they did not need the OL help is not an explanation, but is likely his knowing there was nothing out there and his trying to give confidence to his OL.

Your posts have been excellent honest break downs which is exactly why @Ketchum doesn't attempt to address them thoroughly.

 

[TexLex]

There are talent issues on our roster. Yes. But Arkansas, OSU, Baylor, and even OU also have talent issues. Neither us nor any team we’ve played is loaded with talent. Losing any individual game from this list isn’t necessarily bad, but going 0-4 against those four opponents is abysmal. Are you suggesting that we have such little talent that going 0-4 against those 4 teams is an acceptable outcome?

QB, Edge Rusher and LT...2nd Team Big-12 QB, All-Amrerican Edge Rusher, 1st team-All Big 12 LT...the 3 most highly paid positions in the NFL and the replacements are luke-warm at best...not a good team

 

[nismo265]

There are talent issues on our roster. Yes. But Arkansas, OSU, Baylor, and even OU also have talent issues. Neither us nor any team we’ve played is loaded with talent. Losing any individual game from this list isn’t necessarily bad, but going 0-4 against those four opponents is abysmal. Are you suggesting that we have such little talent that going 0-4 against those 4 teams is an acceptable outcome?

How is it any different than what Texas has done on the field for the last two seasons, and on the whole, the last decade?

Texas went 2-4 against ranked opponents the last two seasons. It’s 1-3 this season.

Texas has lost every regular season non conference game against Power 5 opposition away from DKR since 2012.

 

[TexLex]

QB, Edge Rusher and LT...2nd Team Big-12 QB, All-Amrerican Edge Rusher, 1st team-All Big 12 LT...the 3 most highly paid positions in the NFL and the replacements are luke-warm at best...not a good team

not acceptable...never said that...I am arguing that we all drank the Kool-aid and this team is not a good team Sark inherited.

 

[Ketchum]

a. Historical fact in terms of what? Yardage? Points?
b. Recruiting momentum has stalled. OK. How many decommits so far?
c. "Abysmal" QB play in the last 4 games? Maybe in the 2nd half of those games but not the entire game. Card's stats in the entire Arkie game was the definition of abysmal.

a. Yes.

b. I don't look at decommits as the full barometer of momentum.

c. I didn't say abysmal for the entire game. I actually provide quarter by quarter breakdowns that eliminate emotional bias.

 

[Ketchum]

Flood is the one i don't understand.. Heck, he knows what good offensive linemen look like. I would like to know what he thought he saw because you watch games and it is depressing just how bad they are. Maybe just because he saw them against our DL in the spring?

Is it just me or did anyone think that Casey was faster than he really is? Even the announcer McElroy said something about it on one of his scrambles. Thought he was more athletic.

You watch the game on Sat and you see all the open receivers and all the points left on the board and just drives you crazy. Between the fumble and dropped pass and the pass out of bounds.. My wife who is an OSU fan just left the house after the dropped TD and said i will be back later!

women are smart.

 

[Ketchum]

Every objective measure I’ve given you has dispelled the myth that Sark inherited a good team.

agree to disagree

 

[Ketchum]

Developing your roster through the portal my not be a "waste of time", but If that's what you are banking on year to year, then you have bigger issues and probably aren't the right fit for the job...no matter where you are at. Relying on the portal is lazy.

It's the opposite actually. It's super agressive.

Two of Alabama's best two players are transfers from Ohio State and Tennessee.

Was Nick being lazy?

It's the new age of college football. I'd suggest re-shaping my views on it.

 

[Ketchum]

@Ketchum How much of an upgrade would those 2 Baylor starters be for us? I can only imagine we would kill for those 2 guys right now.

How much would it mean not to have to play Tope Imade?

 

[Ketchum]

I’m coming to the conclusion Sark’s ability to manage the portal will determine whether he has enough time for his recruiting classes to develop. I wonder how much the Defensive scheme gave Sark an overly optimistic view of his lines coming out of the Spring. I have a hard time believing Bo Davis forgot how to coach the dline. If the oline is fighting to a draw, with a dline you believe is talented, then you don’t prioritize the oline portal players. You prioritize the lb players that you believed were exposed in the Spring. The truth was the dline scheme was ineffective, and it failed to give him an accurate assessment of his oline. The season is salvageable but the Defensive scheme needs a major overhaul to utilize the talent available.

I'm not really sure what to make of the defense other than the obvious. I'd love to hear PKs thoughts on the matter, but Sark doesn't let them talk.

 

[Hookemtms70]

Breaks are part of football. The 2005 team caught breaks to go undefeated and win the national title and it was one of the best in the history of the sport.

“Breaks are part of football” is a bit of a lazy response and one that I think misses the context of the question and how it shapes the narrative. Let me try to help:

In last year’s 3 OT games, Texas was outplayed in each by significant margins. Their odds of winning the Tech and OU games was ~ .05% with a three minutes remaining. And the game against Okie St was deemed by ESPN as one the most improbable outcomes in 2020 based on how badly Okie St beat Texas in every measurement aside from turnovers.

That Texas somehow won 2 of these 3 OT games against nearly impossible odds drastically skewed the perception of the team Sark inherited. However, nobody on OB who watched those games felt good about the product; objectively, we all felt Herman was miraculously saving his job with results that were drastically different than what the optics said.

But here we are, 10 months later, pointing to that hollow 7-3 record as justification for the “talent” and team Sark inherited. It’s not just a curious case of amnesia of how average Texas actually performed, it’s maddening. Some use this as narrative to justify a conclusion 8 games into a new tenure.

Furthermore, allow me to add this point that I doubt anyone will dispute. The 2020 version of Texas had one of the best offensive lineman (Cosmi) in a decade AND a top five defensive end (Ossai) in a decade leave, as well as a gritty senior QB with four years of game experience. What most of agree is lacking on the 2021 version are playmakers and experience at these positions.

Given the above, I contend we are 3-5 players (at the right positions) from a 7-1 record. Two upgrades on the OL, one war daddy on the DL and maybe a LB and things probably look different. Am I naive? Maybe. But viewed in the context of last season vs this, I think a case can be made.

Do I believe Sark is the answer? I have no idea and it’s too early to tell. Do I think Card would perform better than Thompson? Could not tell you for sure, but I would like to at least see more of a sample size. Am I frustrated with Texas leading the vast majority of all their conference games to this point (which is a nice change from previous years) only to lose the lead in the 4th quarter, and look like a completely different team than the one I saw run up and down the field in the first quarter? Absolutely! I am as befuddled as everyone.

However, my main point is I just don’t see the same obvious failures when I objectively compare the 2021 version to the 2020 version. I see improvements in some areas, regressions in others and talent and experience issues in key spots.

In conclusion, the only thing I feel confident in saying at this point in the Sark tenure is that the 2021 version of Texas has worse talent on the OL and DL than the 2020 team, and if Sark can’t address these key positions quickly, I believe we’ll be looking for a new coach sometime during the 2023 season.

 

[Ketchum]

Your response to my comment is not on point. I have tried to be very polite and took a long time to explain my points because I think they are being highly confused in all these comments.

• Explain to me how the team Sark inherited was Good given the lack of QB, Edge Rusher and LT that were identified as problems pre-season to which answers were not forthcoming on the roster he inherited.
  • Telling me I thought they might have been 8-4 or 9-3 preseason or others on OB thought that does not explain to me why it was a Good Team. It explains to me how people drank the Kool-Aid once again.
• Explain to me the available Transfer Portal OL that still had not committed a reasonable time after Sark was hired and Flood was in place, that have done well at where they landed, that Sark had a probable shot at and the back story as to why Sark did not pursue them.
  • And using Sark's comments that they did not need the OL help is not an explanation, but is likely his knowing there was nothing out there and his trying to give confidence to his OL.

Sark didn't lack quarterback talent. In fact, CT has been a better player than Sam this year, by and large.

The other two areas are why this team isn't championship material.

It should be better than .500 material.

 

[Ketchum]

“Breaks are part of football” is a bit of a lazy response and one that I think misses the context of the question and how it shapes the narrative. Let me try to help:

In last year’s 3 OT games, Texas was outplayed in each by significant margins. Their odds of winning the Tech and OU games was ~ .05% with a three minutes remaining. And the game against Okie St was deemed by ESPN as one the most improbable outcomes in 2020 based on how badly Okie St beat Texas in every measurement aside from turnovers.

That Texas somehow won 2 of these 3 OT games against nearly impossible odds drastically skewed the perception of the team Sark inherited. However, nobody on OB who watched those games felt good about the product; objectively, we all felt Herman was miraculously saving his job with results that were drastically different than what the optics said.

But here we are, 10 months later, pointing to that hollow 7-3 record as justification for the “talent” and team Sark inherited. It’s not just a curious case of amnesia of how average Texas actually performed, it’s maddening. Some use this as narrative to justify a conclusion 8 games into a new tenure.

Furthermore, allow me to add this point that I doubt anyone will dispute. The 2020 version of Texas had one of the best offensive lineman (Cosmi) in a decade AND a top five defensive end (Ossai) in a decade leave, as well as a gritty senior QB with four years of game experience. What most of agree is lacking on the 2021 version are playmakers and experience at these positions.

Given the above, I contend we are 3-5 players (at the right positions) from a 7-1 record. Two upgrades on the OL, one war daddy on the DL and maybe a LB and things probably look different. Am I naive? Maybe. But viewed in the context of last season vs this, I think a case can be made.

Do I believe Sark is the answer? I have no idea and it’s too early to tell. Do I think Card would perform better than Thompson? Could not tell you for sure, but I would like to at least see more of a sample size. Am I frustrated with Texas leading the vast majority of all their conference games to this point (which is a nice change from previous years) only to lose the lead in the 4th quarter, and look like a completely different team than the one I saw run up and down the field in the first quarter? Absolutely! I am as befuddled as everyone.

However, my main point is I just don’t see the same obvious failures when I objectively compare the 2021 version to the 2020 version. I see improvements in some areas, regressions in others and talent and experience issues in key spots.

In conclusion, the only thing I feel confident in saying at this point in the Sark tenure is that the 2021 version of Texas has worse talent on the OL and DL than the 2020 team, and if Sark can’t address these key positions quickly, I believe we’ll be looking for a new coach sometime during the 2023 season.

what are we debating again?

I agree with most of that.

 

[LonghornsFanDC]

a. Yes.

b. I don't look at decommits as the full barometer of momentum.

c. I didn't say abysmal for the entire game. I actually provide quarter by quarter breakdowns that eliminate emotional bias.

a. Can u provide me the historical rankings? Disagree with your take. This D is mediocre but we had bad defenses with Strong and Herman also.
b. We r not in agreement here.
c. I provided to u the specific quarters that he had more than 50 yards passing from your quarter-by-quarter breakdown. He may be abysmal in the 2nd half but not in the 1st half of these games. Disagree with your take.

 

[Ketchum]

a. Can u provide me the historical rankings? Disagree with your take. This D is mediocre but we had bad defenses with Strong and Herman also.
b. We r not in agreement here.
c. I provided to u the specific quarters that he had more than 50 yards passing from your quarter-by-quarter breakdown. He may be abysmal in the 2nd half but not in the 1st half of these games. Disagree with your take.

a. I'll do some homework later.

b. It happens, I suppose.

c. He's playing one good half (usually early) and one not so good half each week over the last four weeks. That's concerning.

 

[nismo265]

what are we debating again?

I agree with most of that.

I believe he’s making the same point that I did. You continue to point to end of season records that factor in meaningless regular season games (games that have occurred after Texas is out of conference title race) and meaningless bowl games from the past two seasons to try and say that Sark inherited a good team.

When you actually dig into the details of the wins and losses, Texas has played essentially .500 football the past two seasons in the games that mattered, with a majority of them decided by one score. It had a losing record against ranked teams, just like this one. It lost to OU, just like this one. It lost on the road against a Power 5 non-con, just like every Texas team has done since 2012.

 

[Ketchum]

@LonghornsFanDC

Scoring defense currently ranks 4th worst all time.

Yards per game is currently worst in school history

Yards per rush is second worst in school history

Rushing yards per game is 4th worst in history

 

[LonghornsFanDC]

a. I'll do some homework later.

b. It happens, I suppose.

c. He's playing one good half (usually early) and one not so good half each week over the last four weeks. That's concerning.

c. Agree that it's very concerning but u said that his play was "abysmal in the past 15 quarters." That's where we r in disagreement.

 

[Ketchum]

I believe he’s making the same point that I did. You continue to point to end of season records that factor in meaningless regular season games (games that have occurred after Texas is out of conference title race) and meaningless bowl games from the past two seasons to try and say that Sark inherited a good team.

When you actually dig into the details of the wins and losses, Texas has played essentially .500 football the past two seasons in the games that mattered, with a majority of them decided by one score. It had a losing record against ranked teams, just like this one. It lost to OU, just like this one. It lost on the road against a Power 5 non-con, just like every Texas team has done since 2012.

The record for teams that are only pretty good to very good typically play .500 ball or worse consistently against the best competition.

That's actually normal for programs that are not elite and only pretty good.

 

[aahorn8234]

No doubt. Clearly I won't be buying. It's hoops and Yellowstone. The REAL #AGNB.

I can’t wait for basketball, but the PTSD part of my fan brain is expecting a let down

 

[Ketchum]

c. Agree that it's very concerning but u said that his play was "abysmal in the past 15 quarters." That's where we r in disagreement.

Well, the overall state of his play in those 15 quarters is a 127 rating.

That actually is abysmal. Has to improve.

 

[TexLex]

Sark didn't lack quarterback talent. In fact, CT has been a better player than Sam this year, by and large.

The other two areas are why this team isn't championship material.

It should be better than .500 material

Sark didn't lack quarterback talent. In fact, CT has been a better player than Sam this year, by and large.

The other two areas are why this team isn't championship material.

It should be better than .500 material.

Sam was 2nd Team Big 12 last year. Is Casey going to be that?

Sam extended plays with his legs. Sam if he was here this year instead of Card and Casey would have won some of the games we lost.

So if we should not be 4-4 now, what should we be; 7-1, 6-2, 5-3? And would that be evidence of a GOOD TEAM Sark inherited?

 

[karankawajake]

Let's be clear Ketch, this program was heading off of the rails last year and recruiting was tanking faster than Biden's polling numbers. Herman left a mess that will take years to sort out. You seem to imply this team is better than it really is. Considering this team from a pure talent perspective, maybe we shouldn't be 4-4 and maybe our QB situation wasn't handled very well..
But bottom line is that this team is awful. They aren't tough, they don't compete, and they have no pride. And the most glaring thing is that there is no leaders on this roster. Sarkisian inherited this debacle of a program and now he's expected to fix it in year one. You need to move over to Aggie Yell or TexAgs with that kind of perspective..

 

[1JTB6806]

@LonghornsFanDC

Scoring defense currently ranks 4th worst all time.

Yards per game is currently worst in school history

Yards per rush is second worst in school history

Rushing yards per game is 4th worst in history

I'm not suggesting this defense is good, but we did just play the 2 best offensive teams of the season in the last 3 weeks.

The way math works is that if we just hold the next 4 teams to their standard production, this defense ends the year looking much better...historically...against the stats you just provided.

But you know that and it's a weird game you play.

 

[Ketchum]

Let's be clear Ketch, this program was heading off of the rails last year and recruiting was tanking faster than Biden's polling numbers. Herman left a mess that will take years to sort out. You seem to imply this team is better than it really is. Considering this team from a pure talent perspective, maybe we shouldn't be 4-4 and maybe our QB situation wasn't handled very well..
But bottom line is that this team is awful. They aren't tough, they don't compete, and they have no pride. And the most glaring thing is that there is no leaders on this roster. Sarkisian inherited this debacle of a program and now he's expected to fix it in year one. You need to move over to Aggie Yell or TexAgs with that kind of perspective..

a. Recruiting was definitely in the tank.

b. This team IS better than 4-4 imo.

c. The team isn't awful. Awful doesn't lead by double digits against ranked teams in three straight games.

I'm kind of stunned you just lectured me about perspective.

 

[Ketchum]

I'm not suggesting this defense is good, but we did just play the 2 best offensive teams of the season in the last 3 weeks.

The way math works is that if we just hold the next 4 teams to their standard production, this defense ends the year looking much better...historically...against the stats you just provided.

But you know that and it's a weird game you play.

The numbers have been steady all season.

 

[LonghornsFanDC]

@LonghornsFanDC

Scoring defense currently ranks 4th worst all time.

Yards per game is currently worst in school history

Yards per rush is second worst in school history

Rushing yards per game is 4th worst in history

Other than giving up 650 or so yards and 55 points vs Blow U (similar to last year), our D gave up about 400 yards and 30 points each to OSU and Baylor. That's par for the course in our recent history, and is not that bad to me. Not much different from last year's D.

 

[Chetbitterlemon]

It's the opposite actually. It's super agressive.

Two of Alabama's best two players are transfers from Ohio State and Tennessee.

Was Nick being lazy?

It's the new age of college football. I'd suggest re-shaping my views on it.

HA! Comparing anything Saban does at BAMA and thinking Texas will get the same results...c'mon man. Ben Davis, Ray Thorton, Ovie, and Dunn...those are the 4 playing the most with the most "contribution." With two of them coming in from SEC schools. There's a reason why guys enter the portal...if you can't develop the talent you recruit, good luck hitting the lottery with a guy that couldn't win out at his previous school. Recruit better and develop your talent...novel concept but there's a history of it working out.

 

[I Hear Voices]

I think I've managed to piece it together.

Ketch has detected a Pravda-esque effort by Bellmont to control the narrative, and he's going all out to be an independent journalist. Being an independent journalist means exagerrating in the opposite direction of Pravda. So if Pravda says X = 100, then Ketch is morally obligated to say X = 0.

In fact X = 51.2

That's actually pretty funny compared to most of the "I'm gonna slit my wrists" responses.

 

[Big Bertha]

I felt like someone might have 3.

Jacoby Jones wasn't a sack machine, but losing him hurt.

 

[Ketchum]

Other than giving up 650 or so yards and 55 points vs Blow U (similar to last year), our D gave up about 400 yards and 30 points each to OSU and Baylor. That's par for the course in our recent history, and is not that bad to me. Not much different from last year's D.

Correct. Not much improvement. None, actually.