It's been a little more than 24 hours since the college recruiting world felt the shockwaves of Tom Herman announcing his authority in the form of flipping one of the nation's top prep quarterbacks from his school's arch-rival to his own cupboard out of thin air.
Ok, maybe it wasn't thin air, but it sure felt like it on Saturday evening.
With a little more time to absorb the development and ponder on its significance, here's a look at a little non-instant analysis over
Cameron Rising's commitment.
a. How big of a deal is this? Going back to 2003, the Texas program has signed only one quarterback out of 15 recruiting classes with a higher grade than Rising... five-star Garrett Gilbert back in 2009. Both Jevan Snead (No.61) in 2006 and Jerrod Heard (No.85) were national top 100 prospects when they signed with Texas, but both rank behind Rising, who is currently ranked No.52 in the rankings by Rivals. It should be noted for the record that Rivals is currently the only national recruiting service that ranks Rising as a top 100 prospect, so I'm not sure that we can call him the consensus top quarterback prospect that Texas has landed a commitment from since 2009, but if we go by the current Rivals rankings, there's only been one better since Vince Young signed with the Longhorns in 2002.
b. As well as the Longhorns have recruited as a whole over the last 15 years or so, it's kind of wild to think that Texas only landed two true national blue-chippers (Gilbert and Snead) from 2003-17 after it landed three from 1999-2002 (Chris Simms in 1999, Chance Mock in 2000 and Vince Young in 2002)
It should be noted that the Longhorns landed commitments during that window from five-star out of state quarterbacks Ryan Perrilloux (Reserve, La.) and John Brantley (Ocala, Florida), only to lose both in the final two months of the recruiting process in 2005 and 2007, respectively.
c. After spending more than an hour watching various videos of Rising from his sophomore year through his junior season and into this off-season, he kind of reminds me a taller version of current Texas quarterback Sam Ehlinger. As was the case with Ehlinger, the thing that impresses me the most about Rising is his ability to stand in the pocket and make throws all over the field, even in the face of pressure. Also, just like Ehlinger, Rising is a guy that has the ability to create plays with his athleticism and feet. He's not a run threat in the mold of an athlete like Heard and I don't know that you want him to carry a running game the way Colt McCoy did at times in 2008, but a lot of times when you hear a guy labeled as a pro-style quarterback, you think of a stiff athlete, but that's certainly not Rising. Make no mistake about it, though, the thing that makes him a potentially outstanding high-level college quarterback is his arm ability and feel for the passing game. The ability to create off-schedule plays is just a big bonus.
d. In case you were giving it some thought, Texas needs two quarterbacks in this class in the worst way. With only two scholarship quarterbacks scheduled to be on the roster going into the 2018 season, taking two quarterbacks helps gets the numbers closer to where Tom Herman will desire them to be, while also protecting the program to a degree against any possible significant injury/transfer at the position.
e. There's just no way to know how this will impact
Casey Thompson (Moore, Oklahoma), the other Texas quarterback commitment in this class. From a talent standpoint, you'd probably give Rising a 60-40 edge in a battle against Thompson because of his advanced play in the passing game, but both players are extremely talented and could emerge as starting-level players at Texas. I think the big issue is what the Oklahoma Sooners do at quarterback. For so long, the Sooners have ignored Thompson as a prospect because it had a commitment from Rising. Does that change now that Rising has committed to Texas? Can the Sooners wipe away the advantages that Texas has gained over the next nine months? All of my experience in this industry tell me that it's a situation that will need to be monitored over the next nine-plus months.
f. There were nine days between the commitment of Rising and Thompson, both of whom attended the Texas spring game. It seems pretty clear that the presence of one isn't making the other flinch at this point.
g. We're not really going to do the nickname thing, are we? It's not that I don't think "Bad Moon" Rising is a decent nickname, although it makes me think of former NFL wide receiver Andre Rison, but the best players in the history of the Texas program are typically mentioned by a single name, whether it's Vince, Colt, Ced, Ricky, Tommy, etc... A nickname seems like a sure-fire way to mess things up.
No. 2 – If Texas wins 9+ games this season...
This is going to sound like a broken record for a number of you, but when a football program lives in a holding pattern like it has this entire decade, you're going to hear a few broken records.
With the acknowledgement out of the way that you've heard this before, it seems borderline obvious that the Longhorns are on the verge of a monster recruiting class if Tom Herman and Co. can lift this team to at least 8-9 wins this season.
You can sense that Tom Herman's 2018 #RevolUTion is thiiiiiiis close to going down.
Here's a very realistic look at how this recruiting class could look if the coaches get the team over 8-9 win hump and decide to take a full class, which it absolutely should be able to do after 15+ more months of natural program attrition.
Quarterbacks (2)
Cameron Rising (Newbury Park, Ca.) - 4 stars (No.52 overall, No.3 pro-style, No.6 in California)
Casey Thompson (Moore, Oklahoma) - 4 stars (No.244 overall, No.9 dual-threat, No.4 in Oklahoma)
Running Backs (1)
Keontay Ingram (Carthage, Texas) - 3 stars (No.22 running back, No.58 in Texas)
Wide Receivers (4)
Justin Watkins (Ocala, Florida) - 4 stars (No.60 overall, No.3 athlete, No.20 in Florida)
Brennan Eagles (Alief Taylor) - 4 stars (No.33 overall, No.7 wide receiver, No.3 in Texas)
Al'Vonte Woodard (Houston Lamar) - 4 stars (No.34 overall, No.8 wide receiver, No.4 in Texas)
Jaylen Waddle (Houston Episcopal) - 4 stars (No.229 overall, No.45 wide receiver, No.26 in Texas)
Jaquayln Crawford (Rockdale) - 3 stars (No.35 wide receiver, No.65 in Texas)
Tight Ends (2)
Mustapha Muhammad (FB Ridge Point, Texas) - 4 stars (No.14 tight end, No.27 in Texas)
Malcolm Epps (Spring Dekaney - 4 stars (No.181 overall, No.8 tight end, No.19 in Texas)
Offensive Linemen (3)
Reese Moore (Seminole, Texas) - 3 stars (No.18 tight end, No.40 in Texas)
Rafiti Ghirmai (Frisco Wakeland) - 3 stars (No.47 offensive tackle, No.96 in Texas)
Barton Clement (Fort Bend Marshall) - 4 stars (No.226 overall, No.9 guard, No.25 in Texas)
Defensive Linemen (2)
Keondre Coburn (Spring Westfield) - 4 stars (No.195 overall, No.13 defensive tackle, No.21 in Texas)
Bobby Brown (Arlington Lamar) - 4 stars (No.165 overall, No.6 strong-side defensive end, No.17 in Texas)
Linebackers (3)
Byron Hobbs (FW Eastern Hills) - 3 stars (No.36 outside linebacker, No.72 in Texas)
Alson Orji (Rockwall) - 4 stars (No.90 overall, No.6 outside linebacker, No.8 in Texas)
DeMarvion Overshown (Arp) - 3 stars (No.28 safety, No.57 in Texas)
Defensive Backs (5)
Anthony Cook (Houston Lamar) - 5 stars (No.20 overall, No.2 cornerback, No.1 in Texas)
B.J.Foster (Angelton) - 4 stars (No.27 overall, No.2 safety, No.2 in Texas)
Leon O'Neal (Cy Springs) - 4 stars ((No.163 overall, No.13 safety, No.15 in Texas)
D'Shawn Jamison (Houston Lamar) - 4 stars (No.22 cornerback, No.28 in Texas)
Jalen Green (Houston Heights) - 4 stars (No.125 overall, No.14 cornerback , No.10 in Texas)
That's 23 right there and none of those projections feel forced outside of the possible Barton Clement projection, as he is probably a slight A&M lean at the moment, but the Aggies might take themselves out of contention if its season goes like most think it will, which is sideways at best. Throw in a couple of added defensive linemen (hard to project who those names will be) and a extra wildcard and you've got a class that will rank as one of the best in the country.
As it stands, we're talking one five-star, 16 four-stars and a sprinkling of high three-star prospects, which would have made it a borderline top five class a season ago. If a couple of those very high four stars get their fifth star before February, we could be talking about a top three class.
It feels like it's thiiiiis close to happening. There's just two things left to do... win and close the deal.
No. 3 – Quick thoughts on the Sunday commit ...
In what was one of the least-surprising commitments of the 2018 recruiting class, Seminole, Texas offensive tackle prospect Reese Moore committed to the Longhorns today and in doing so, it gave Tom Herman a verbal pledge from one of the state's most interesting projects.
Some things to know...
a. He's a guy that is likely going to sign and disappear for a few years with Yancy McKnight because there's a big physical overhaul that will need to take place, as Moore looks to build up his frame to high division one standards, while keeping the athleticism that makes him such a high-upside prospect.
b. I'm not sure there's an in-state tackle that has as high of a ceiling as Moore when you take into consideration his frame and natural athletic ability. Of course, his floor is probably kind of low when you consider that he's a long-term project that is coming from an area of the state that rarely develops high-end college football players. Justin Northwest tackle Darrell Simpson is the pnly guy that comes close, but Moore is a better raw athlete than Simpson, but Simpson's more advanced at this stage than Moore.
c. Interesting target for new Texas offensive coach Derek Warehime because I can assure you that very few college coaches have actually seen Moore in person. To get to Seminole, you have to want to go to Seminole and you have to prepare yourself that it might be the only high school you'll see that day if you make the trip, especially from out of state. Recruiting services also haven't seen much of him. I would rate him as one of the bigger curiosities among the top 50 prospects in the state.
d. Tanya Tucker and Larry Gatlin are the two most famous people to ever come out of Seminole.The most famous athlete in the history of the town might be world champion boxer Mary Ann Almager, who I have personally never heard of.
No. 4 – A random thought about what Tom Herman said about Malik Jefferson...
For those that missed it, Herman
did a radio interview with former Orangebloods writer and current NFL Draft guru Lance Zierlein on 790 AM in Houston this week and one of the things he mentioned in the conversation was that junior linebacker Malik Jefferson had a higher max bench press than max squat when the new staff arrived in December/January.
Unless you're Larry Allen and can push up 700 pounds on the bench press, that's typically not a good thing because so much of a football player's critical strength comes from the legs.
I'm positive that Jefferson will be asked about it when he next meets with the media in July and August, which leads me to believe that improving his strength in his core and his legs is likely his top off-season priority. Frankly, it explains a lot of Jefferson's blind spots as a player.
So, why did Herman mention it?
a. To motivate Jefferson and increase the sense of urgency related to improving in those areas.
b. To make sure that when Jefferson explodes as a player under Herman, it'll be Yancy McKnight and Todd Orlando that get credit for his physical make-over/development and not the former Texas coach who would have you believe that players like Jefferson were left as add water/instant game-changers upon Herman's arrival.
I'm convinced that Orlando and Herman believe they've got an eventual NFL player in Jefferson. They know it. For eventual recruiting purposes, Herman declared before it all happens that when Jefferson reaches his upside, it'll have been Herman and Co. that pulled it out of him.
No. 5 – Speaking of the Texas linebackers...
What the hell is going to happen when Gary Johnson arrives this summer?
It's an interesting question to ask because one of the things Alex Dunlap and I talked about this week on Orangebloods Radio is that you can make a case that the second-team linebacker unit of Jeffrey McCulloch, Breckyn Hager and Edwin Freeman is a more dynamic and productive unit than the group that features Jefferson, Anthony Wheeler and Naashon Hughes.
With neither Hager and Wheeler not proving to be sure-thing impact players in the spring at the Mike linebacker spot, the door appears to be wide-open for the most-high profile linebacker prospect that Todd Orlando has ever landed in recruiting.
Let's assume Johnson isn't a flop and takes that starting job, as many have projected for months. With the Longhorns looking to play a ton of 3-3-5 this season, that leaves two starting spots for a rather large number of players.
With McCulloch and Hughes battling it out at the B-backer spot and Jefferson expected to hold on to the weak-side spot, it has me asking two big questions about this group.
a. What happens with Hager, who was one of the two best players on last year's defense?
b. What happens with Freeman, who might be the biggest playmaker of the entire unit before the arrival of Johnson in the fall?
Hager is a fascinating case. He's basically Sergio Kindle in the way that you always want him moving forward and attacking, but there might not be a perfect role for him in a 3-3-5 because he doesn't have the size to play on the line or the natural versatility needed at the other positions. Perhaps he could make the battle at the B-backer spot a three-way battle, but if that's where the coaches thought he would make a possible impact, he would have jumped into that battle head-first in the spring... you'd think.
It's hard not to wonder if he's going to be a rush end/overhang OLB when the team actually lines up in a 3-4-4, which will only occur consistently in about 25-percent of the games this season.
What Orlando does to get him on the field this year is one of the biggest mysteries of this team in April.
As for Freeman, I sometimes believe that if slipped on a No.46 jersey and played the way he did last season and in the spring game, we'd never have conversations about the player in No.46 having troubles. Every time Freeman is on the field, he seems to make game-changing plays.
Yes, there will be some rotation along the way, but for the most part it's hard to see how Orlando can get everyone on the field. It's a better problem than not having any good linebackers at all, but it's a curious little situation to say the least.
No. 6 – Scattershooting on the Longhorns …
... Given the state of the interior defensive line and its lack of depth, I'm starting to think that sophomore Jordan Elliott is one of the most important players in the program. In general, that huge defensive line class from a year ago isn't ready for prime-time (and some might not be ready for day-time) and Elliott was the only guy in the spring that seemed to move the needle at all. Given that he seems to be the closest to helping provide some depth this season, how far he can come in the next seven months might be a critical piece of this year's defensive conversation. If there's an injury anywhere on the line, he might be pressed into playing, ready or not.
... Speaking of players on the defensive line that need to find the light switch, junior defensive end Charles Omenihu comes to mind.
... I get the sense that 2017 is truly going to be the redshirt season than Erick Fowler needs, even if it's not an official redshirt season. Charlie just wasted a season of eligibility in playing him after he showed up so late a year ago.
... Safety Chris Brown might just emerge as the steal of the 2016 recruiting class when the proverbial dust settles.
... I don't know what to make of Zach Shackelford's situation. He's an undersized player that has been battling injuries since he arrived in Austin. There's a part of me that wonders if this is going to be what it looks like throughout his career.
No. 7 – Buy or sell …
BUY or SELL: We keep both QB commitments?
(Sell) I've been covering Texas football recruiting for 25 years and the Longhorns have NEVER singed two national top 250 players at the quarterback position in the same year. If it happens, it'll truly be a historical feat that Tom Herman will have pulled off.
BUY or SELL: After Spring game in 2018, at least one of the four QBs - Buechele, Ehlinger, Rising, and Thompson - transfers from Texas?
(Sell) See above.
BUY or SELL: Rising's commitment negatively impacts our standing with Roschon Johnson QB '19?
(Sell) That kid loves Texas and it's possible that it'll be 2020 before Rising is a factor for the starting quarterback position, which would be Johnson's redshirt freshman season.
BUY or SELL: I know it's early but Tom Herman's recruiting momentum is starting to feel like the early Mack Brown years. Tom is younger at this point than Mack was in his early years at Texas. With that said it seems Herman is willing to capitalize on recruiting advantages and loopholes in the system you have been writing about for years. If Tom Herman continues his current recruiting efforts he will surpass anything Mack did in his early years due to a willingness to work the current system which Mack never did take advantage of while at Texas?
(Sell) What Mack Brown did at Texas was such a harder task than the one given to Herman, mostly because Brown had to truly convince talent from inner-city Dallas and Houston that Texas was a school that would look out for them, create an atmosphere that they would be successful in and play a brand of football that was interesting. There was literally a generation of hostility that he had to break through and once he did, he changed the game in recruiting like no single college football coach has ever changed recruiting in a state with the volume of players like the state of Texas possesses.
BUY or SELL: In your gut, Shane makes it through the season as the starter as long as he is healthy?
(Buy) If he can stay healthy...
BUY or SELL: Malik Zaire represents a better option than Shane Buechele, and when he transfers here next week you will finally answer this question in next weeks B/S?
(Buy) I've answered this question numerous times. I believe Zaire would give UT its best quarterback option for the 2017 season. Now excuse me because I need to prepare myself for the outcry.
BUY or SELL: The low productivity numbers for the LB 1s in the spring game (by Alex's measures) were due to the dominance of the DL 1s and/or the ineptitude of the OL 2s rather than a particular issue with the LB 1s?
(Sell) I think it's both. There are issues with that first-team group that need to be ironed out.
BUY or SELL: After beating Maryland and San Jose State at home this coming season, the Longhorn football team will be so high going into their game at USC that they will be in the lead at halftime?
(Sell) You watched the spring game and thought, "We're going to be winning at halftime of the USC game"? I did not watch the spring game and think that. USC is loaded and has what I believe is a massive quarterback advantage. Just to be clear, you're talking about the same USC Trojans team that won its last eight games from a season ago by nearly a margin of 20 points per game?
BUY or SELL: We will see more upgrades to the facilities, stadium etc. in 2018 then in 2017? The upgrades in 2018 will have more of an impact in recruiting then 2017 lockers/ weight room?
(Buy) There's only so much that will get done in the next eight months.
BUY or SELL: Dallas Cowboys should upgrade their defensive backfield with their first two picks because their isn't a player on the d-line that will be any better than the options they already have on the roster?
(Sell) I'm a believer in taking the best player available. Unless it's a high-level cornerback, I doubt we'll see Dallas draft a safety with the first two picks. We've been down this road before.
BUY or SELL: Podcasts start coming on a regular basis and aren't put in the back burner.
(Buy) Yes, yes and yes.
No. 8 – Texas Baseball weekend in a gif …
No. 9 – Eternal Randomness of the Spotty Sports Mind …
... I'm not really ready for the NFL Draft. I'm going to be crash-coursing it this week.
... What Golden State did to Portland on Saturday had to be so disheartening for the Blazers. Up 16 against a KD/Kerr-less Warriors, you could just sense that the Warriors were going to go on a run at some point and once it happened, the Blazers emerged as a humbled, broken team. The fact that the Warriors clown on other teams more than any eight other NBA teams combined only added to the back-breaking pain of it all.
... Paul George in Philly? He's sure as hell not going back to Indiana.
... Russell Westbrook is basically Allen Iverson 2.0 and the 2017 Thunder is basically... well... pick almost any year that Iverson played in Philly, outside of the one year it was knocked out in five by the Lakers in the Finals.
... I kind of agree with Warren Sapp about Myles Garrett. Kind of.
... I'm just not into MLB right now at all. Other than keeping up with the Phillies (.500 through 18 games!), I'm just not paying atten.
... I will ban the first person that mentions Liverpool's loss to Crystal Palace to me. The second person, too. Careful.
... So, that's why every gushes over Messi?
No. 10 – And finally…
I discovered this weekend that after nearly 41 years of living, one of the things that still gives me the most joy is opening a box of sports cards.
Although it had been years since I've opened a box of cards, I found myself in that situation this weekend and even though I'm not a big collector of memorabilia, I found it to be very enjoyable.
In fact, the next time I find myself having a bad day, I might just go buy a box somewhere and lose myself for a half hour. Sometimes you just need to feel like you're 11 all over again.
