Ketch's 10 Thoughts From the Weekend (Boy, that escalated quickly...)

[Ketchum]

I'll do it for you guys because I know it will shatter some of you and I don't want that.

Top 3 road performances

1. at Kansas State 17 of 24 for 222 yards, 2 TD, O INT 176.0 rating
2. at Oklahoma State 21 of 33 for 239 yards, 1 TD,1 INT 128.4 rating
3. at Texas Tech 20 of 40 for 244 yards, 2 TD, 0 INT, 117.7 rating.

Of his true road games a year ago, he posted one game above a 128.4 rating and much of that had to do with Devin Duvernay's running than anything else in that Kansas State game.

Top 3 performances vs. teams with winning records (not including Baylor, who went 3-6 in the Big 12).

1. at Kansas State 17 of 24 for 222 yards, 2 TD, O INT 176.0 rating
2. vs. Oklahoma 19 of 36 for 245 yards, 3 TD, 1 INT, 131.9 rating
3. at Oklahoma State 21 of 33 for 239 yards, 1 TD,1 INT 128.4 rating

Everything below those three gets really ugly.

The truth is that Buechele has a lot to prove.

 

[trophies2]

Yeah, that wasn't really what I asked for.

Rank the top three games on the road and against ranked teams in order with stats.

Once you do that, I feel like you'll understand (or not) where I'm coming from.

Do stats tell the whole picture? What was his best road game?

Vs Oklahoma State he was 21-33 for 239 yards with one touchdown and one pick. 63 percent completion. He and the running game gave Texas 28 points in the first half. They were going great until the injuries at running back derailed the day.

vs Tech. He was 20-40 for 244 yards and two touchdowns. No interceptions.

Well, look he only completed fifty percent of his passes, but he had several drops in that game hurting his percentage. This was probably his best overall road performance.

Vs Kansas State he was 17-24 for 176 yards and two touchdowns, not to mention the crucial drop that I think D. Leonard dropped in the end zone late in the 4th quarter. 70 percent completion.

Vs OU - a neutral game - he was 19-36 for 245 yards and three touchdowns and one pick. The offense put up 40 points. That should've been good enough to win.

Who else did they play on the road that was ranked?

 

[FrancoBevo]

well, at least your sample size is significant.

ok, let me give you a larger sample size

games played 8; 11/23; 122 yds; 1TD; efficiency rating <107 -

your assumption that he must be our best option b/c he's a graduate transfer, I guess - don't honestly know what else you could be basing your assessment on, because it certainly can't be based on anything he did on the field last year - or is it?

 

[trophies2]

I'll do it for you guys because I know it will shatter some of you and I don't want that.

Top 3 road performances

1. at Kansas State 17 of 24 for 222 yards, 2 TD, O INT 176.0 rating
2. at Oklahoma State 21 of 33 for 239 yards, 1 TD,1 INT 128.4 rating
3. at Texas Tech 20 of 40 for 244 yards, 2 TD, 0 INT, 117.7 rating.

Of his true road games a year ago, he posted one game above a 128.4 rating and much of that had to do with Devin Duvernay's running than anything else in that Kansas State game.

Top 3 performances vs. teams with winning records (not including Baylor, who went 3-6 in the Big 12).

1. at Kansas State 17 of 24 for 222 yards, 2 TD, O INT 176.0 rating
2. vs. Oklahoma 19 of 36 for 245 yards, 3 TD, 1 INT, 131.9 rating
3. at Oklahoma State 21 of 33 for 239 yards, 1 TD,1 INT 128.4 rating

Everything below those three gets really ugly.

The truth is that Buechele has a lot to prove.

Did Texas go 5-7 in 2016 solely because of the inadequacy of SB?

You're using QBR rating as the cold hard facts for everything here. What did your eyes tell you?

Regardless of stats and ratings. His performance overall should've been good enough for 7-8 wins.

 

[trophies2]

Put it this way, Shane is like pool. Started of strong then faded down the stretch.

 

[FrancoBevo]

I'll do it for you guys because I know it will shatter some of you and I don't want that.

Top 3 road performances

1. at Kansas State 17 of 24 for 222 yards, 2 TD, O INT 176.0 rating
2. at Oklahoma State 21 of 33 for 239 yards, 1 TD,1 INT 128.4 rating
3. at Texas Tech 20 of 40 for 244 yards, 2 TD, 0 INT, 117.7 rating.

Of his true road games a year ago, he posted one game above a 128.4 rating and much of that had to do with Devin Duvernay's running than anything else in that Kansas State game.

Top 3 performances vs. teams with winning records (not including Baylor, who went 3-6 in the Big 12).

1. at Kansas State 17 of 24 for 222 yards, 2 TD, O INT 176.0 rating
2. vs. Oklahoma 19 of 36 for 245 yards, 3 TD, 1 INT, 131.9 rating
3. at Oklahoma State 21 of 33 for 239 yards, 1 TD,1 INT 128.4 rating

Everything below those three gets really ugly.

The truth is that Buechele has a lot to prove.

so does Zaire;

ZAIRE, Malik 8 106.73 11-23-0 47.8 122 1 22 15.2
games played, efficiency, attempts-completions, comp %, yards, TD, long, avg/game

those are his SEASONS numbers, not a game or two, HIS SEASON - I know, Kelly screwed him, he could have been an All American, First Round Draft Pick and on on and on - lulz

 

[Truluck]

Ketch, your opinion is Zaire playing for Texas?

 

[depock]

There's a reason why Bruce Chambers was hired and it had nothing to with his one or two seasons of coaching at Carter before he was hired.

You seem weirdly insulted by this, but this actually happened. I'm not making up something out of thin air.

There is a difference between being inept at something (inner city recruiting) and being openly hostile. I am not so much insulted as pointing out the rhetoric of saying we were hostile towards recruiting blacks is inflammatory, and unnecessarily so.

 

[Anwar Richardson]

- I appreciate the breakdown on Reese Moore.

- The nugget on Jefferson makes you wonder how that was possible. Didn't even know that was possible.

- Looks like Texas had a good problems at LB.

- I think Texas will beat USC. Herman makes his money off the big games.

- Westbrook got what he wanted. He wanted to put up a lot of points, and if his team won games, that would be a bonus.

- I thought my baseball card selection would earn me millions by now. Guess I'll have to keep playing lotto.

 

[Austin Ex]

I'll do it for you guys because I know it will shatter some of you and I don't want that.

Top 3 road performances

1. at Kansas State 17 of 24 for 222 yards, 2 TD, O INT 176.0 rating
2. at Oklahoma State 21 of 33 for 239 yards, 1 TD,1 INT 128.4 rating
3. at Texas Tech 20 of 40 for 244 yards, 2 TD, 0 INT, 117.7 rating.

Of his true road games a year ago, he posted one game above a 128.4 rating and much of that had to do with Devin Duvernay's running than anything else in that Kansas State game.

Top 3 performances vs. teams with winning records (not including Baylor, who went 3-6 in the Big 12).

1. at Kansas State 17 of 24 for 222 yards, 2 TD, O INT 176.0 rating
2. vs. Oklahoma 19 of 36 for 245 yards, 3 TD, 1 INT, 131.9 rating
3. at Oklahoma State 21 of 33 for 239 yards, 1 TD,1 INT 128.4 rating

Everything below those three gets really ugly.

The truth is that Buechele has a lot to prove.

Looks pretty damned good for a true freshman playing for an incompetent staff, actually. Context matters.

 

[NovoHorn]

I'll do it for you guys because I know it will shatter some of you and I don't want that.

Top 3 road performances

1. at Kansas State 17 of 24 for 222 yards, 2 TD, O INT 176.0 rating
2. at Oklahoma State 21 of 33 for 239 yards, 1 TD,1 INT 128.4 rating
3. at Texas Tech 20 of 40 for 244 yards, 2 TD, 0 INT, 117.7 rating.

Of his true road games a year ago, he posted one game above a 128.4 rating and much of that had to do with Devin Duvernay's running than anything else in that Kansas State game.

Top 3 performances vs. teams with winning records (not including Baylor, who went 3-6 in the Big 12).

1. at Kansas State 17 of 24 for 222 yards, 2 TD, O INT 176.0 rating
2. vs. Oklahoma 19 of 36 for 245 yards, 3 TD, 1 INT, 131.9 rating
3. at Oklahoma State 21 of 33 for 239 yards, 1 TD,1 INT 128.4 rating

Everything below those three gets really ugly.

The truth is that Buechele has a lot to prove.

The truth is that Zaire has plenty to prove also. Has Zaire even started 3 true road games in his career? Your talking points for Malik seem to be one bowl game and scorching a Charlie Strong led 5-7 Texas team. Come on, man.

I love the idea of bringing in Zaire, and think he would fit well in a Herman offense, but MZ has just as much to prove on the field as Shane(probably more).

 

[depock]

I'll do it for you guys because I know it will shatter some of you and I don't want that.

Top 3 road performances

1. at Kansas State 17 of 24 for 222 yards, 2 TD, O INT 176.0 rating
2. at Oklahoma State 21 of 33 for 239 yards, 1 TD,1 INT 128.4 rating
3. at Texas Tech 20 of 40 for 244 yards, 2 TD, 0 INT, 117.7 rating.

Of his true road games a year ago, he posted one game above a 128.4 rating and much of that had to do with Devin Duvernay's running than anything else in that Kansas State game.

Top 3 performances vs. teams with winning records (not including Baylor, who went 3-6 in the Big 12).

1. at Kansas State 17 of 24 for 222 yards, 2 TD, O INT 176.0 rating
2. vs. Oklahoma 19 of 36 for 245 yards, 3 TD, 1 INT, 131.9 rating
3. at Oklahoma State 21 of 33 for 239 yards, 1 TD,1 INT 128.4 rating

Everything below those three gets really ugly.

The truth is that Buechele has a lot to prove.

Ketch is right, he does have a lot to prove. And you guys bringing up stats act as if you did not see the games. Buechele had a good deep ball early and he hit a lot of sideline/bubble screen routs. Both padded his stats to some degree. But QBs make their impact on games by converting in the redzone and moving the chains on 3rd downs, and Buechele was poor at both. He also was almost phobic about going over the middle. He needs to get better.

 

[collinhookem18]

-

- I think Texas will beat USC. Herman makes his money off the big games.

.

Wow!

 

[Ketchum]

Do stats tell the whole picture? What was his best road game?

Vs Oklahoma State he was 21-33 for 239 yards with one touchdown and one pick. 63 percent completion. He and the running game gave Texas 28 points in the first half. They were going great until the injuries at running back derailed the day.

vs Tech. He was 20-40 for 244 yards and two touchdowns. No interceptions.

Well, look he only completed fifty percent of his passes, but he had several drops in that game hurting his percentage. This was probably his best overall road performance.

Vs Kansas State he was 17-24 for 176 yards and two touchdowns, not to mention the crucial drop that I think D. Leonard dropped in the end zone late in the 4th quarter. 70 percent completion.

Vs OU - a neutral game - he was 19-36 for 245 yards and three touchdowns and one pick. The offense put up 40 points. That should've been good enough to win.

Who else did they play on the road that was ranked?

Apparently, stats don't tell any picture for some.

The bottom line is that he played poorly in 7 of his last 10 games, wasn't good on the road and essentially had one decent game against a team with a real pulse.

I think he has a super ceiling, but I'm not just giving him the benefit of the doubt because it makes the fanatic in me sleep better at night.

He has a lot to prove.

 

[Change My Name]

Apparently you can't separate scheme from performance.

When someone is put into a position to fail it's no shock when they do.

Been down this road with him before. You point to the woefully simplistic and utterly predictable offense and he says it was made that way to protect SB.

Of course, it's possible, no a certainty, that the coaching staff was just awful. Even if you assume that SB was incapable of making throws over the middle or attacking the rest of the field, how do you explain the complete lack of innovation elsewhere in the offense? Bad coaching.

You've got the fastest guy on the field, maybe try a jet sweep more than once in the whole season? Obviously, that's just one example, but it goes to my point that the offense scheme was just plain bad in every respect and not just pertaining to the qb. Thus, I'm not inclined to say the staff was one-dimensional and predictable and just bad because they were hamstrung by SB's limitations

 

[Ketchum]

Did Texas go 5-7 in 2016 solely because of the inadequacy of SB?

Regardless of stats and ratings. His performance overall should've been good enough for 7-8 wins.

a. No, and I have never suggested that to be the case. NEVER.

b. No, that's just not the case.

 

[Ketchum]

so does Zaire;

ZAIRE, Malik 8 106.73 11-23-0 47.8 122 1 22 15.2
games played, efficiency, attempts-completions, comp %, yards, TD, long, avg/game

those are his SEASONS numbers, not a game or two, HIS SEASON - I know, Kelly screwed him, he could have been an All American, First Round Draft Pick and on on and on - lulz

ok. It's ok to have disagreements. I'm quite open to being a big fan of Zaire. We just disagree.

 

[I Hear Voices]

No. 5 – Speaking of the Texas linebackers...

Good stuff to say the least.

 

[Ketchum]

Looks pretty damned good for a true freshman playing for an incompetent staff, actually. Context matters.

You can't say context matters and then ignore most of the context.

 

[NovoHorn]

Ketch is right, he does have a lot to prove. And you guys bringing up stats act as if you did not see the games. Buechele had a good deep ball early and he hit a lot of sideline/bubble screen routs. Both padded his stats to some degree. But QBs make their impact on games by converting in the redzone and moving the chains on 3rd downs, and Buechele was poor at both. He also was almost phobic about going over the middle. He needs to get better.

I don't disagree he has a lot to prove, and I'm in total agreement that he has to be much better.

That being said, when looking at things like redzone offense and converting 3rd downs, context needs to be involved to tell the whole story. How many times was Shane pulled on 3rd and 2 in favor of the 18 wheeler package? How many 3rd and 12's was he brought back in on after Swoopes wet the bed? How many times was Shane pulled at the 2 yard line for Swoopes, despite him leading long drives to get them there?

I'm not arguing that he doesn't need to improve in those areas, but I will argue that he was severely hamstrung by turd finger Strong and the personnel decisions on short yardage and goal line. A prime example is the Baylor game. Shane gets pulled on the 2 point conversion to tie, then again on 3rd and short and we had to settle for a longer FG because Swoopes ran backwards on the play.

 

[Ketchum]

Ketch is right, he does have a lot to prove. And you guys bringing up stats act as if you did not see the games. Buechele had a good deep ball early and he hit a lot of sideline/bubble screen routs. Both padded his stats to some degree. But QBs make their impact on games by converting in the redzone and moving the chains on 3rd downs, and Buechele was poor at both. He also was almost phobic about going over the middle. He needs to get better.

I think he has All-America upside, but I believe he might still be a year or so away from startingto truly display that type of performance.

That's really the big disconnect between me and others. I believe I'm aware that it takes time to climb the performance hill and some others believe with real certainty that everything that went wrong last year was someone else's fault and that he's going to be great this year.

If there was a capable upperclassmen in the program, he would have redshirted last year and would be vying for a backup position this year, before trying to win the job as a redshirt sophomore.

 

[trophies2]

Apparently, stats don't tell any picture for some.

The bottom line is that he played poorly in 7 of his last 10 games, wasn't good on the road and essentially had one decent game against a team with a real pulse.

I think he has a super ceiling, but I'm not just giving him the benefit of the doubt because it makes the fanatic in me sleep better at night.

He has a lot to prove.

I never said he didn't have alot to prove going forward. He has everything to prove going forward. Sam E. will be breathing down his neck at some point. He'll have to perform well and consistently to solidify his starter status. Herman will not let him get away with bad play. That said, I believe in his ability to become an all Big 12 performer, maybe beyond that.

However, we are discussing last season, and you're saying he stunk in 7 of the final 10 games, and I and many others don't agree that he did.

Texas DID NOT lose 7 of their final 10 games because of SB. Quarterback was way down the list on Texas' problems last year. FACT.

 

[Ketchum]

I don't disagree he has a lot to prove, and I'm in total agreement that he has to be much better.

That being said, when looking at things like redzone offense and converting 3rd downs, context needs to be involved to tell the whole story. How many times was Shane pulled on 3rd and 2 in favor of the 18 wheeler package? How many 3rd and 12's was he brought back in on after Swoopes wet the bed? How many times was Shane pulled at the 2 yard line for Swoopes, despite him leading long drives to get them there?

I'm not arguing that he doesn't need to improve in those areas, but I will argue that he was severely hamstrung by turd finger Strong and the personnel decisions on short yardage and goal line. A prime example is the Baylor game. Shane gets pulled on the 2 point conversion to tie, then again on 3rd and short and we had to settle for a longer FG because Swoopes ran backwards on the play.

Those things happened, in part, because that coaching staff lacked confidence in Shane in a lot of areas.

 

[Ketchum]

Texas DID NOT 7 of their final 10 games because of SB. Quarterback was way down the list on Texas' problems last year. FACT.

Last four games of the season:

11/5 @Texas Tech W 45-37 20 40 244 50.0 52 2 0 117.7 4 5 1.3 7 0 57.7 40.0
11/12 West Virginia L 24-20 31 48 318 64.6 32 1 1 122.9 13 44 3.4 23 1 60.2 69.9
11/19 @Kansas L 24-21 (OT) 17 26 165 65.4 75 1 3 108.3 7 -4 -0.6 5 0 25.1 29.9
11/25 TCU L 31-9 16 39 218 41.0 48 0 1 82.9 10 -5 -0.5 12 0 13.8 16.2

That's Case McCoy level production.

 

[iluvdahorns]

​

No. 2 – If Texas wins 9+ games this season...

This is going to sound like a broken record for a number of you, but when a football program lives in a holding pattern like it has this entire decade, you're going to hear a few broken records.

With the acknowledgement out of the way that you've heard this before, it seems borderline obvious that the Longhorns are on the verge of a monster recruiting class if Tom Herman and Co. can lift this team to at least 8-9 wins this season.

You can sense that Tom Herman's 2018 #RevolUTion is thiiiiiiis close to going down.

Here's a very realistic look at how this recruiting class could look if the coaches get the team over 8-9 win hump and decide to take a full class, which it absolutely should be able to do after 15+ more months of natural program attrition.

Quarterbacks (2)

Cameron Rising (Newbury Park, Ca.) - 4 stars (No.52 overall, No.3 pro-style, No.6 in California)
Casey Thompson (Moore, Oklahoma) - 4 stars (No.244 overall, No.9 dual-threat, No.4 in Oklahoma)

Running Backs (1)

Keontay Ingram (Carthage, Texas) - 3 stars (No.22 running back, No.58 in Texas)

Wide Receivers (4)

Justin Watkins (Ocala, Florida) - 4 stars (No.60 overall, No.3 athlete, No.20 in Florida)
Brennan Eagles (Alief Taylor) - 4 stars (No.33 overall, No.7 wide receiver, No.3 in Texas)
Al'Vonte Woodard (Houston Lamar) - 4 stars (No.34 overall, No.8 wide receiver, No.4 in Texas)
Jaylen Waddle (Houston Episcopal) - 4 stars (No.229 overall, No.45 wide receiver, No.26 in Texas)
Jaquayln Crawford (Rockdale) - 3 stars (No.35 wide receiver, No.65 in Texas)

Tight Ends (2)

Mustapha Muhammad (FB Ridge Point, Texas) - 4 stars (No.14 tight end, No.27 in Texas)
Malcolm Epps (Spring Dekaney - 4 stars (No.181 overall, No.8 tight end, No.19 in Texas)

Offensive Linemen (3)

Reese Moore (Seminole, Texas) - 3 stars (No.18 tight end, No.40 in Texas)
Rafiti Ghirmai (Frisco Wakeland) - 3 stars (No.47 offensive tackle, No.96 in Texas)
Barton Clement (Fort Bend Marshall) - 4 stars (No.226 overall, No.9 guard, No.25 in Texas)

Defensive Linemen (2)

Keondre Coburn (Spring Westfield) - 4 stars (No.195 overall, No.13 defensive tackle, No.21 in Texas)
Bobby Brown (Arlington Lamar) - 4 stars (No.165 overall, No.6 strong-side defensive end, No.17 in Texas)

Linebackers (3)

Byron Hobbs (FW Eastern Hills) - 3 stars (No.36 outside linebacker, No.72 in Texas)
Alson Orji (Rockwall) - 4 stars (No.90 overall, No.6 outside linebacker, No.8 in Texas)
DeMarvion Overshown (Arp) - 3 stars (No.28 safety, No.57 in Texas)

Defensive Backs (5)

Anthony Cook (Houston Lamar) - 5 stars (No.20 overall, No.2 cornerback, No.1 in Texas)
B.J.Foster (Angelton) - 4 stars (No.27 overall, No.2 safety, No.2 in Texas)
Leon O'Neal (Cy Springs) - 4 stars ((No.163 overall, No.13 safety, No.15 in Texas)
D'Shawn Jamison (Houston Lamar) - 4 stars (No.22 cornerback, No.28 in Texas)
Jalen Green (Houston Heights) - 4 stars (No.125 overall, No.14 cornerback , No.10 in Texas)

That's 23 right there and none of those projections feel forced outside of the possible Barton Clement projection, as he is probably a slight A&M lean at the moment, but the Aggies might take themselves out of contention if its season goes like most think it will, which is sideways at best. Throw in a couple of added defensive linemen (hard to project who those names will be) and a extra wildcard and you've got a class that will rank as one of the best in the country.

As it stands, we're talking one five-star, 16 four-stars and a sprinkling of high three-star prospects, which would have made it a borderline top five class a season ago. If a couple of those very high four stars get their fifth star before February, we could be talking about a top three class.

It feels like it's thiiiiis close to happening. There's just two things left to do... win and close the deal.

To put what Herman is on the cusp of doing with the 2018 recruiting class into historical perspective, that list of 23 prospects you put forth would constitute a total of 2,955 class points.

Only 6 other classes in the last 5 years have accumulated more points.

That class would've been good enough for 1st in 2016, 2nd in 2013 and 2014 and 3rd in 2015 and 2017.

As it stands that would be a class with 7 Top 100 player and 15 Top 250 players.

If TH closes this class it will be one of the best recruiting classes Top to bottom, nationally in recent memory.

 

[trophies2]

a. No, and I have never suggested that to be the case. NEVER.

b. No, that's just not the case.

You may as well have said it. Texas went 3-7 in their final 10 games. You're saying Shane stunk in 7 of those 10 games. Perhaps you don't mean to imply that, but it reads like you are imo.

 

[Ketchum]

You may as well have said it. Texas went 3-7 in their final 10 games. You're saying Shane stunk in 7 of those 10 games. Perhaps you don't mean to imply that, but it reads like you are imo.

He did stink for the most part in seven of his last 10 games.

He was far from the only one stinking, though. So, no. Quit trying to spin a narrative that doesn't exist because the fictional narrative helps you push back against the larger points in play.

 

[trophies2]

Last four games of the season:

11/5 @Texas Tech W 45-37 20 40 244 50.0 52 2 0 117.7 4 5 1.3 7 0 57.7 40.0
11/12 West Virginia L 24-20 31 48 318 64.6 32 1 1 122.9 13 44 3.4 23 1 60.2 69.9
11/19 @Kansas L 24-21 (OT) 17 26 165 65.4 75 1 3 108.3 7 -4 -0.6 5 0 25.1 29.9
11/25 TCU L 31-9 16 39 218 41.0 48 0 1 82.9 10 -5 -0.5 12 0 13.8 16.2

That's Case McCoy level production.

Did he stink vs Tech and WV? The low rating vs. Tech is because of the % percentange. C'mon, Ketch! You're not being fair. Lots of drops in that game. He played well imo.

Against WV, he threw for 300 yards, ran for another 44. He wasn't stellar, but he didn't stink. The offense moved the ball all game long but they couldn't score touchdowns. He was solid.

The last two games - no argument. He stunk. The team stunk.

 

[trophies2]

He did stink for the most part in seven of his last 10 games.

He was far from the only one stinking, though. So, no. Quit trying to spin a narrative that doesn't exist because the fictional narrative helps you push back against the larger points in play.

I'm not sticking my head in the sand here. I don't lead the SB fan club. I just don't think you're being fair to how he played. You see it one way. I see it another. Healthy disagreement.

 

[Ketchum]

Did he stink vs Tech and WV? The low rating vs. Tech is because of the % percentange. C'mon, Ketch! You're not being fair. Lots of drops in that game. He played well imo.

Against WV, he threw for 300 yards, ran for another 44. He wasn't stellar, but he didn't stink. The offense moved the ball all game long but they couldn't score touchdowns. He was solid.

The last two games - no argument. He stunk. The team stunk.

I refuse to lower the bar. I think Tom Herman would agree with me.