I'm saying that Texas shouldn't overextend itself with the offers of high school kids to the extent that they are taking 1 in 10s on a consistent level, which it still does.
Ketch's 10 Thoughts From The Weekend (Continuing my crusade!!!!!)
- Thread starter Ketchum
- Start date
There are marginal gains in taking mid and low 4 stars over three stars.
But, it can be as high as 15-20% in some cases.
The bottom line is being wiser with the numbers/offers.
So we only sign 5 and high 4s. So 4 or 5 players a year. Then supplement w walk in's and save money.
The world is separated between two types of people. Those who think the dog video is campy internet humor and those of us who share that video with family members and watch it multiple times.
What is the hit rate in kids that sign with power 5 schools through the transfer portal?
Even though we have 18 commitments, we really only have three. Maybe the other 15 can join our awesome Quidditch squad.
Depends on the size of the class Texas is taking and the success its having in recruiting.
Nothing changes the risk component of the overextension.
The goal is to win the game of fine margins.
The data is the data. The performance levels just aren't good enough to keep doing it because it's what everyone has been doing since the beginning of time.
The Portal changes the game significantly.
@Ketchum , I think you answered your own post as to why the staff will continue to pursue some 3* players. I am sure the staff has higher evaluations and feels that they can process them out of they don't see that progress after a year. Many will clearly underwhelm and the staff will encourage them to move on. Some may merit another year or 2 of development. Others will be obvious hits.
You also judge everyone under the standard of being drafted or not. Many players are necessary reserve or special team players that are essential to the team, but never hit that pinnacle of being good enough to be a, drafted NFL player.
The lack of class size caps has changed the logic of pursuing and taking risks on these low 4* and 3* players, especially at positions that are slower to develop, particularly the OL and DL. Goosby is a player who hit his growth spurt before his senior year. Others may never have one and others may have it later. Taking risks to find those diamonds is why we pay for a large staff to continuous review potential targets and find those with that potential. Risks are no longer as expensive as they used to be when you often were saddled with players for 4 years.
You also judge everyone under the standard of being drafted or not. Many players are necessary reserve or special team players that are essential to the team, but never hit that pinnacle of being good enough to be a, drafted NFL player.
The lack of class size caps has changed the logic of pursuing and taking risks on these low 4* and 3* players, especially at positions that are slower to develop, particularly the OL and DL. Goosby is a player who hit his growth spurt before his senior year. Others may never have one and others may have it later. Taking risks to find those diamonds is why we pay for a large staff to continuous review potential targets and find those with that potential. Risks are no longer as expensive as they used to be when you often were saddled with players for 4 years.
I get that. You just repeated your storyline. What should Texas do? Make no offers to 3 stars (or only just a few) and rely on portal? Take fewer players than permitted?
It's too soon to have real data, however.,...
The breakdown of last year's data showed that 60-percent of the top 100 players that were in the portal started right away.
20-percent were injured.
20-percent weren't good enough to start right away.
That's a massive level of difference when talking about risk.
So many names on those lists make think this, and that shows how bad we've been:
Also, did you catch Izzys entrance at UFC276 last night? I thought it was pretty cool.
I do not hate three-star prospects.
Before I go any further, I feel like I should stress this.
No three-star high school football prospect ever took away any of my ex-girlfriends that I'm aware of. Or took my lunch money. Or bullied me on a basketball court.
None of this is personal.
I just don't think a program with significant aspirations as a major college football program should be making significant investments in them in the age of the college football portal.
Of course, it's not an opinion that most college football coaches would likely agree with and that includes the entire Texas Longhorns coaching staff. Yet, I'm not going to back down from this particular hot take, which feels like less of a hot take and more like common sense from my perspective. In the coming paragraphs, I'm going to try and pull you to my way of thinking.
Before I hit you over the head with math, I'm going to begin with a little common sense. Two of the biggest issues facing the three-star prospect at a program like Texas are time and patience. Neither the prospect nor the program typically have enough of either.
More times than not, the average college football prospect needs two or three years to develop before he begins to scratch the surface of becoming a plus-player at a major program (if it ever happens). If you happen to find a player that is comfortable with a three-year window of development, that player has to hope that he doesn't get recruited over in the process.
Take the three different three-star offensive linemen in the Class of 2020 for the Longhorns - Andrej Karic, Jaylen Garth and Logan Parr. None of the three have been in the program for three seasons yet, but when those players reach their third seasons of the program, they'll be staring at the likes of Kelvin Banks, Devon Campbell, Neto Umeozulu and the rest of the 2022 offensive line class that will likely moved above them in the pecking order as younger players.
The reality at a program like Texas is that a player usually starts to contribute in his first or second season in the program or he gets recruited over or bypassed by someone from the portal. Almost by definition, most three-star prospects aren't ready to contribute at high levels in their first couple of seasons.
See the rub?
Let's take a look at some recent history in the Texas program.
Of the 7 three- and two-star (non-kicking) prospects that the Longhorns signed in 2018, the best of the lot is probably Moro Ojomo. The only other contributor is Christian Jones. Everyone else is gone.
Of the 10 three-star players in the 2019 recruiting class, only Roschon Johnson and T'Vondre Sweat remain in the program. Everyone else is gone.
Of the 9 three-star players from the 2020 class, only Jaylan Ford and Jahdae Barron are sure contributors on the 2022 team.
It's not that three stars never hit. It's that you have to sort through a lot of misses to get to them. During that three-year window, a major college program can't have aspirations for the very top and only come away with five pretty good players out of a 26-player pile of players. That's a 20-percent return on the program's investment and it includes two back-up defensive tackles, a back-up running back, a starting cornerback and a starting inside linebacker that the staff has been trying all-off-season to upgrade on.
Johnson and Barron look like players that will play in the NFL from my vantage point, but getting a 7.7% return on high-level players just isn't good enough. Typically, hitting on the average three-star prospect is a 1 in 10 proposition.
It's like going to the county fair and shooting hoops on a 12-foot goal with a crooked rim, only to win a $20 stuffed panda after you've spent $40.
That's not winning as much as it's not walking away with a total disaster.
No. 2 - Let's look under the burnt orange hood ...
As we work our way through this conversation, let's take a look at the long-term success of the Longhorns with regards to taking three-star prospects by looking at every three-star that Texas has ever signed by position.
Quarterbacks
2005 Colt McCoy, 2006 Sherrod Harris, 2007 G.J. Kinne, 2019 Case McCoy, 2011 David Ash, 2019 Roschon Johnson and 2021 Charles Wright
Notes: What an eclectic little group of players. Technically, only one of the players that has completed his eligibility hit for the Longhorns, but that hit has his number retired. Meanwhile, the second McCoy on this list had some big wins as a starter and it's impossible to know what might have happened with Ash had concussions not ended his career.
NFL Draft rate: 20%
Two things I'd say about this group ...
a. By the time we get to the end of this discussion, I'm going to make a mini-exemption for quarterbacks.
b. I personally rated McCoy and Ash as four stars. Just wanted to say that for the record.
Running backs
2002 Clint Haney, 2005 Jerrell Wilkerson, 2005 Michael Houston, 2006 Antwan Cobb, 2008 Brock Fitzhenry, 2008 Tre Newton, 2008 Ryan Roberson, 2011 Joe Bergeron, 2014 Kevin Shorter, 2016 Tristian Houston and 2017 Daniel Young.
Notes: Technically, D'Onta Foreman was ranked as an athlete, which means that either Newton or Bergeron are the best players out of this group. That tells a story.
NFL Draft rate: 0%
Wide Receivers
2002 Dustin Miksch, 2004 Chris Ogbonnaya, 2004 Nate Jones, 2006 John Marshall, 2011 Miles Onyegbule, 2012 Marcus Johnson, 2013 Montrel Meander, 2014 Dorian Leonard, 2014 Garrett Gray, 2014 Roderick Bernard, 2015 Gilbert Johnson, 2015 Ryan Newsome, 2015 Davion Curtis, 2016 Reggie Hemphill-Mapps, 2017 Jordan Pouncey, 2019 Kennedy Lewis, 2020 Dajon Harrison, 2021 Casey Cain, 2021 Keithron Lee and 2022 Savion Redd
Notes: Going all the way back to Marcus Johnson in 2012, the Longhorns are 0 for their last 12 (not counting Cain or Redd). The three best players from this group are Johnson (who, I ironically ranked as a four-star), Jones and Ogbonnaya - none of whom where all-conference level players as starters, even if all three played on Sundays (one at running back).
NFL Draft rate: 0%
Tight ends
2003 Steve Hogan, 2004 Peter Ullman, 2006 Britt Mitchell, 2006 Greg Smith, 2007 Ahmard Howard, 2007 Ian Harris, 2009 Trey Graham, 2009 Barrett Matthews, 2013 Geoff Swaim, 2014 Blake Whiteley, 2016 Peyton Aucoin, 2017 Cade Brewer, 2019 Jared Wiley and 2021 Juan Davis.
Notes: Out of the 13 players that have completed their eligibility, only Swaim (7th round by the Dallas Cowboys) ever played on Sundays and you could make a strong case that Brewer is the second-best contributor from this group.
NFL Draft rate: 7.7%
Offensive Linemen
2002 Brett Valdez, 2003 Kyle Thornton, 2003 Dallas Griffin, 2004 Adam Ulatoski, 2005 Charlie Tanner, 2005 Chris Hall, 2006 Roy Watts, 2006 Steve Moore, 2008 Luke Poehlmann, 2009 Paden Kelley, 2011 Taylor Doyle, 2011 Marcus Hutchins, 2013 Desmond Harrison, 2014 Elijah Rodriguez, 2014 Terrell Cuney, 2014 Alex Anderson, 2015 Garrett Thomas, 2015 Ronnie Major, 2015 Tristan Nickelson, 2016 Brandon Hodges, 2016 Tope Imade, 2016 Zach Shackelford, 2017 Sam Cosmi, 2017 Derek Kerstetter, 2018 Reese Moore, 2018 Rafiti Ghirmai, 2019 Willie Tyler, 2020 Andrej Karic, 2020 Jaylen Garth, 2020 Logan Parr, 2021 Hayden Conner, 2022 Lance St. Louis and 2022 Connor Robertson
Notes: Out of the 27 players that have completed their eligibility, only Cosmi was drafted. Harrison joins him as a guy that played on Sundays, but he literally never started a game for the Longhorns, no matter how much @Alex Dunlap tried to will it to happen. Other than that, most of the contributors on the list were never really more than pretty good at best, with the likely exception of Ulatoski. This is going to sound harsh, but I'd make the case that one of the problems Texas football has had in the last 15 years is that too many of those players ended up playing a lot of snaps for the program.
NFL Draft rate: 3.7%
No. 3 - Can I just take a brief moment to say ...
OF THE 73 OFFENSIVE PROSPECTS THAT TEXAS HAS TAKEN SINCE 2002, ONLY THREE WERE DRAFTED BY NFL TEAMS!!!!!!!!
No. 4 - Continuing with the Defense ...
Defensive Tackles
2003 Thomas Marshall, 2004 Derek Lokey, 2006 Ben Alexander, 2007 Tyrell Higgins, 2007 Michael Wilcoxon, 2010 Deaires Cotton, 2012 Brandon Moore, 2012 Alex Norman, 2014 Chris Nelson, 2014 Poona Ford, 2015 Du'Vonta Lampkin, 2016 Jordan Elliott, 2016 Gerald Wilbon, 2016 Marcel Southall, 2018 Christian Jones, 2018 Moro Ojomo, 2021 Byron Murphy, 2022 Aaron Bryant and 2022 Kris Ross
Notes: This is actually a group that performs very well, as Lokey, Ford and Elliott all played on Sundays. Of course, Ford was legitimately a great player for the Longhorns. Ironically, the only player (Elliott) from the group of the 14 that have completed their eligibility and was actually drafted only played in six games for the Longhorns before transferring. Getting at least 20+ of a contributor rate isn't a terrible number, especially when Ojomo and Murphy will end up boosting the numbers above 30%.
NFL Draft rate: 7.1%
Defensive Ends
2006 Brian Ellis, 2007 Sam Acho, 2009 Dominique Jones, 2009 Kyle Kriegel, 2012 Caleb Bluiett, 2012 Byrce Cotrell, 2014 Jake McMillon, 2015 Quincy Vasser, 2016 Malcolm Roach, 2016 Andrew Fitzgerald, 2017 Max Cummins, 2017 Jamari Chisholm, 2017 Taquan Graham, 2018 Daniel Carson, 2018 Mike Williams, 2019 T'Vondre Sweat, 2019 Peter Mpagi, 2019 Sawyer Gorham-Welch, 2021 David Abiara, 2021 Barryn Sorrell and 2021 Jordan Thomas,
Notes: Acho is obviously a big hit. Beyond him, Roach and Graham were hits of lesser extent, but still proved to be NFL-level talents. The problem is that almost all of the other players that have finished their eligibility turned out to be complete dudes. Yet, if Sweat has a big year in 2022 and Sorrell pans out as people inside the program hope, we could be talking about a position group with a near 25-percent success rate as quality performers.
NFL Draft rate: 12.5%
Linebackers
2002 Brian Robison, 2002 Marcus Myers, 2003 Scott Derry, 2004 Jeremy Campbell, 2004 Rashad Bobino, 2004 Nic Redwine, 2005 Roderrick Muckelroy, 2008 Dustin Earnest, 2008 Emmanuel Acho, 2009 Patrick Nkwopara, 2012 Dalton Santos, 2012 Alex De La Torre, 2013 Naashon Hughes, 2014 Cameron Hampton, 2014 Andrew Beck, 2015 Cameron Townsend, 2015 Breckyn Hager, 2018 Byron Hobbs, 2019 Caleb Johnson, 2019 Marcus Tillman, 2019 Juwan Mitchell, 2020 Jaylan Ford, 2021 Morice Blackwell, 2021 Terrence Cooks, 2022 Derrick Brown and 2022 Trevell Johnson
Notes: Robison, Muckelroy and Acho were all definite hits, but I'd argue that the program has missed on its last 12, with all due respect to Beck and Hager, who proved to be solid players at other positions. It's kind of a tricky group of players to talk about, but this is an undeniable fact - Texas hasn't struck gold (even remotely) at the actual linebacker position for its defense since the pre-Will Muschamp days.
NFL Draft rate: 13.6%
Defensive Backs
2002 Matthew Melton, 2003 Brandon Foster, 2004 Ryan Palmer, 2006 James Henry, 2008 Blake Gideon, 2010 Adrian White, 2011 Leroy Scott, 2012 Kevin Vaccaro, 2013 Erik Huhn, 2014 Jermaine Roberts, 2014 John Bonney, 2014 Jason Hall, 2015 PJ Locke, 2016 Eric Cuffee, 2016 Chris Brown, 2017 Kobe Boyce and 2019 Marquise Caldwell
Notes: There are a few decent college players in that group, including Foster, Palmer, Gideon and Brown, but not a single impact player ever emerged from a group of 17 players. You'd probably say that Gideon was the best of that group and only Brown warrants being in a conversation with him in the last 15 years.
NFL Draft rate: 0.0%
Athletes
2003 Eric Foreman, 2008 Antoine Hicks, 2012 Jalen Overstreet, 2012 Adrian Colbert, 2013 Chevoski Collins, 2014 D'Onta Foreman, 2015 Deandre McNeal, 2016 Lil'Jordan Humphrey, 2016 Donovan Duvernay, 2020 Kelvontay Dixon, 2020 Jaden Hullaby and 2022 Xavian Brice
Notes: It's interesting that two of the biggest hits of the last decade for the Longhorns on the offensive side of the ball, were listed as "athletes" coming out of high school. Colbert ended up being an NFL player, but only emerged into that kind of player after transferring from the program. Still, not too shabby, given the sample size.
NFL Draft rate: 18.2%
No. 5 - A few final thoughts and some rules ...
... If we mix in all of the athletes into the correct side of the ball, it means that four of the last 81 three-star players that the Longhorns have signed on the offensive side of the ball have eventually been drafted by NFL teams. That's 4.9%.
... The number of NFL drafted players from the defensive side of the ball stands at six in 75 over the last two decades. That's 8%.
... Of the 10 three-star players that have been drafted out of the 153 prospects who have completed their eligibility, the following were recruited post 2008 ... Geoff Swaim, Sam Cosmi, Jordan Elliott, Taquan Graham, Adrian Colbert and D'Onte Foreman. That's six players and two of them ended up transferring from Texas. Only two were All-Big 12 players.
... No three-star player ever recruited by Texas in the modern era of the Rivals rankings (2002) has ever been selected as a first-round pick.
You can throw in an occasional Marcus Johnson, Lil'Jordan Humphrey or Poona Ford, but the bottom line on these numbers remains poor.
Moving forward, the best thing the Texas program can do is let other programs develop these 1 in 10s and then poach them in the transfer portal.
The only exceptions that should be made are the following:
a. An occasional quarterback from the state of Texas. We'll call it the Colt McCoy rule.
b. An occasional BIG defensive lineman. No tweeners. They all need to be either a defensive tackle or a defensive end that is at least 6-4, 240 pounds.
c. Raw two-way athletes that can play on either side of the ball.
d. Kickers or Punters.
That's it.
Otherwise, that scholarship needs to be saved for a player coming through the Portal with more pure upside (think Agiye Hall) or proven credentials (think Isaiah Neyor).
No. 6 - Historical trends: In-State Defensive Tackles ...
A week ago in this column, we took a look at defensive ends from the Lone Star State and with the commitment of Sydir Mitchell, I thought it might be a good time to look at the defensive tackles that the state produces.
If some of you want the cliffs on this section without having to sort through the names, here are the key points.
a. 75% of five-star players from Texas from 2002-2017 were drafted by NFL teams and 87.5% played on Sundays.
b. 33.3% of high four-star players from Texas from 2004-2017 were drafted by NFL teams.
c. 0.0% of mid four-star players from Texas from 2004-2017 were drafted by NFL teams.
d. 11.8% of low four-star players from Texas from 2004-2017 were drafted by NFL teams.
e. 15.2% of high three-star players from Texas from 2004-2017 were drafted by NFL teams.
Here's how it all looks when you go under the hood of each rankings tier:
Let's look at the five-stars.
2002 - Rod Wright (Texas)
2004 - Frank Okam (Texas)
2005 - Demarcus Granger (Oklahoma)
2012 - Mario Edwards (Florida State)
2012 - Malcom Brown (Texas)
2013 - A'Shawn Robinson (Alabama)
2016 - Ed Oliver (Houston)
2017 - Marvin Wilson (Florida State)
Breakdown
* 6 of the 8 players (75.0%) were drafted by NFL teams and 7 of the 8 played on Sundays.
* 3 of the last 5 five-star defensive tackles since 2005 have been selected in the first round of the NFL Draft and another (Edwards) was selected in the second round.
Now let's look at the high four stars:
2005 - Roy Miller (Texas)
2007 - Andre Jones (Texas)
2008 - Jarvis Humphrey (Texas)
2009 - Jamarkus McFarland (Oklahoma)
2009 - Calvin Howell (Texas)
2015 - Daylon Mack (Texas A&M)
Breakdown
* 2 of the 6 players (33.0%) were drafted by NFL teams: Miller (3rd round) and Mack (5th round).
Mid Four Stars
2008 - Chancey Aghayere (LSU)
2010 - Ashton Dorsey (Texas)
2010 - Taylor Bible (Texas)
2013 - Justin Manning (Texas A&M)
2013 - Isaiah Golden (Texas A&M)
2013 - Kerrick Huggins (Oklahoma)
2014 - Deshawn Washington (Texas A&M)
2015 - Darrian Daniels (Oklahoma State)
Breakdown
* 0 of the 8 players (0.0%) were drafted by NFL teams.
Low Four Stars
2004 - Walter Thomas (Oklahoma State)
2005 - Vince Oghobaase (Duke)
2005 - Vincent Williams (Texas A&M)
2005 - Brandon Antwine (Florida)
2008 - Rod Davis (Texas A&M)
2008 - Kheeston Randall (Texas)
2010 - Eric Humphrey (Oklahoma)
2011 - Jordan Wade (Oklahoma)
2011 - Quincy Russell (Texas)
2011 - Desmond Jackson (Texas)
2011 - Marquis Anderson (Oklahoma)
2012 - Paul Boyette (Texas)
2013 - Hardreck Walker (Texas A&M)
2013 - Andrew Billings (Baylor)
2014 - Zaycoven Henderson (Texas A&M)
2016 - Chris Daniels (Texas)
2016 - Kendall Jones (Alabama)
Breakdown
* 2 of the 17 players (11.8%) were drafted by NFL teams.
No. 7 – BUY or SELL …
(Sell) Knowing that there's no real number that serves as a ceiling, I don't think we'll see guys get pushed out of the class, but it might mean that more guys from the program are "processed" in order to fit them all in next August.
(Buy) I hate watching football games that don't matter and far too often on college football weekends, we're limited to one or two games each week mattering. In my mind, cutting the dead weight and streamlining the sport is going to lead to a better product on our televisions each week. There's not a single team that will get left out of the super heavyweight conferences that I really care about.
(Sell) I can't buy that until I see some evidence. I know the smart thing for me to say as the owner of this site is to tell you yes, but I wouldn't be able to look myself in the mirror if I started to just tell you what you wanted to hear. Hell, this entire column this week is full of stuff I'm not sure any of you want to hear or see.
(Sell) Come on...
(Buy) That's an easy one for me because I definitely think Johntay Cook is going to get his fifth star and Connor Stroh will get bumped up to four stars.
(Sell) Eight will likely do.
(Buy) There's no reason to think that Texas' ability to recruit California is going to decrease in the coming years.
(Sell) I don't think the game is going to be that close.
(Sell) I want you to know that you get an A+ for creativity and consideration for the question that you've asked, but generally speaking, alumni wealth isn't a major consideration for most kids making decisions.
(Buy) I think he wins the Heisman if all of that happens.
(Sell) It would likely be really close and it would likely mean that this season is a disaster on the field and that Sarkisian is in real trouble. I'm still selling, but it would be damn close. The pitchforks would definitely come out.
(Buy) This is still a defense that lacks proven playmakers. That hasn't changed.
No. 8 - Scattershooting on the sports weekend ...
... The NBA is freaking never boring. Never.
... I'm not sure where I want Kevin Durant to be traded, but please don't let it be the Boston Celtics. I can live with anything else, but I can't live with that.
... The Lakers trading for Kyrie Irving when the rest of the league won't touch him is pretty much the most Lakers thing ever. I can't believe LeBron James is going to trust the rest of his "prime" years with Irving. What could possibly go wrong?
... Zion is just stealing money at this point. Hundreds of millions.
... P.J. Tucker is a Sixer. That makes me really happy.
... It's almost time for me to be a fantasy football commish. I vow to be a better commish this season. I'm tired of @Anwar Richardson suggesting I hand control over to someone else.
... I'm thinking I'm going to take my kids to an Astros game this month.
... For the Texas hard-ball fans out there. This will make you smile.
... Mo Salah! Mo Salah! Running down the Wing! Consider me very surprised that FSG gave Salah the money he wanted in order to get him to agree to an extension. Consider me a happy boy.
... I may or may not have cackled this weekend when the Cristiano Ronaldo news came out of Manchester on Saturday ...
... I have a hunch Wimbledon is going to be really good this week.
No. 9 - The List: Top 10 Guns N Roses songs ...
Never in a million years would I have believed 25 years ago that Guns N Roses would be touring in 2022, but somehow we've made it.
And Carrie Underwood is performing with them.
It seems like as good of a reason as any to do a Top 10 list. I'm sure there will be zero disagreement.
10. Live and Let Die
9. Mr. Brownstone
8. Rocket Queen
7. Estranged
6. Patience
5. Knockin on Heaven's Door
4. Paradise City
3. Sweet Child O' Mine
2. November Rain
1. Welcome to the Jungle
No. 10 - And Finally ...
Dogs, man. Dogs.
I have zero doubts that don’t take 3 stars poach proven 3 stars is the way to go. Everyone will understand this in some stupidly long time and they will make a movie called “starball“ about it.
How can you not see it? It’s like they aren’t able to use spreadsheets.
My only hope is they totally know and will have no issues shit canning any 3 stars that dont measure up
I mean they have to be ruthless. Since people are getting paid it no longer bugs me
You can look through that entire list of 153 players and there are roughly five guys that warrant special consideration.
Your best special teams players need to be starters. Your starters need to be plus players. Very seldom are three stars developing into plus players.
So many names on those lists make think this, and that shows how bad we've been:
Also, did you catch Izzys entrance at UFC276 last night? I thought it was pretty cool.
I almost bought the PPV, but passed.
This would be interesting.
I feel like @Ketchum and his info is 100% on but saving all these 3 star and mid / low 4 star scholarships for the Portal seems questionable at best. I wonder what would be the data for Portal players or even grad transfer players to Power 5 schools since the Portal is so new.
You should have requested a special meet with sark and not Published it
Sorry... I just think all the time and effort discussing "3 stars" and "NFL hit rate" is just patently silly.
I do not hate three-star prospects.
Before I go any further, I feel like I should stress this.
No three-star high school football prospect ever took away any of my ex-girlfriends that I'm aware of. Or took my lunch money. Or bullied me on a basketball court.
None of this is personal.
I just don't think a program with significant aspirations as a major college football program should be making significant investments in them in the age of the college football portal.
Of course, it's not an opinion that most college football coaches would likely agree with and that includes the entire Texas Longhorns coaching staff. Yet, I'm not going to back down from this particular hot take, which feels like less of a hot take and more like common sense from my perspective. In the coming paragraphs, I'm going to try and pull you to my way of thinking.
Before I hit you over the head with math, I'm going to begin with a little common sense. Two of the biggest issues facing the three-star prospect at a program like Texas are time and patience. Neither the prospect nor the program typically have enough of either.
More times than not, the average college football prospect needs two or three years to develop before he begins to scratch the surface of becoming a plus-player at a major program (if it ever happens). If you happen to find a player that is comfortable with a three-year window of development, that player has to hope that he doesn't get recruited over in the process.
Take the three different three-star offensive linemen in the Class of 2020 for the Longhorns - Andrej Karic, Jaylen Garth and Logan Parr. None of the three have been in the program for three seasons yet, but when those players reach their third seasons of the program, they'll be staring at the likes of Kelvin Banks, Devon Campbell, Neto Umeozulu and the rest of the 2022 offensive line class that will likely moved above them in the pecking order as younger players.
The reality at a program like Texas is that a player usually starts to contribute in his first or second season in the program or he gets recruited over or bypassed by someone from the portal. Almost by definition, most three-star prospects aren't ready to contribute at high levels in their first couple of seasons.
See the rub?
Let's take a look at some recent history in the Texas program.
Of the 7 three- and two-star (non-kicking) prospects that the Longhorns signed in 2018, the best of the lot is probably Moro Ojomo. The only other contributor is Christian Jones. Everyone else is gone.
Of the 10 three-star players in the 2019 recruiting class, only Roschon Johnson and T'Vondre Sweat remain in the program. Everyone else is gone.
Of the 9 three-star players from the 2020 class, only Jaylan Ford and Jahdae Barron are sure contributors on the 2022 team.
It's not that three stars never hit. It's that you have to sort through a lot of misses to get to them. During that three-year window, a major college program can't have aspirations for the very top and only come away with five pretty good players out of a 26-player pile of players. That's a 20-percent return on the program's investment and it includes two back-up defensive tackles, a back-up running back, a starting cornerback and a starting inside linebacker that the staff has been trying all-off-season to upgrade on.
Johnson and Barron look like players that will play in the NFL from my vantage point, but getting a 7.7% return on high-level players just isn't good enough. Typically, hitting on the average three-star prospect is a 1 in 10 proposition.
It's like going to the county fair and shooting hoops on a 12-foot goal with a crooked rim, only to win a $20 stuffed panda after you've spent $40.
That's not winning as much as it's not walking away with a total disaster.
No. 2 - Let's look under the burnt orange hood ...
As we work our way through this conversation, let's take a look at the long-term success of the Longhorns with regards to taking three-star prospects by looking at every three-star that Texas has ever signed by position.
Quarterbacks
2005 Colt McCoy, 2006 Sherrod Harris, 2007 G.J. Kinne, 2019 Case McCoy, 2011 David Ash, 2019 Roschon Johnson and 2021 Charles Wright
Notes: What an eclectic little group of players. Technically, only one of the players that has completed his eligibility hit for the Longhorns, but that hit has his number retired. Meanwhile, the second McCoy on this list had some big wins as a starter and it's impossible to know what might have happened with Ash had concussions not ended his career.
NFL Draft rate: 20%
Two things I'd say about this group ...
a. By the time we get to the end of this discussion, I'm going to make a mini-exemption for quarterbacks.
b. I personally rated McCoy and Ash as four stars. Just wanted to say that for the record.
Running backs
2002 Clint Haney, 2005 Jerrell Wilkerson, 2005 Michael Houston, 2006 Antwan Cobb, 2008 Brock Fitzhenry, 2008 Tre Newton, 2008 Ryan Roberson, 2011 Joe Bergeron, 2014 Kevin Shorter, 2016 Tristian Houston and 2017 Daniel Young.
Notes: Technically, D'Onta Foreman was ranked as an athlete, which means that either Newton or Bergeron are the best players out of this group. That tells a story.
NFL Draft rate: 0%
Wide Receivers
2002 Dustin Miksch, 2004 Chris Ogbonnaya, 2004 Nate Jones, 2006 John Marshall, 2011 Miles Onyegbule, 2012 Marcus Johnson, 2013 Montrel Meander, 2014 Dorian Leonard, 2014 Garrett Gray, 2014 Roderick Bernard, 2015 Gilbert Johnson, 2015 Ryan Newsome, 2015 Davion Curtis, 2016 Reggie Hemphill-Mapps, 2017 Jordan Pouncey, 2019 Kennedy Lewis, 2020 Dajon Harrison, 2021 Casey Cain, 2021 Keithron Lee and 2022 Savion Redd
Notes: Going all the way back to Marcus Johnson in 2012, the Longhorns are 0 for their last 12 (not counting Cain or Redd). The three best players from this group are Johnson (who, I ironically ranked as a four-star), Jones and Ogbonnaya - none of whom where all-conference level players as starters, even if all three played on Sundays (one at running back).
NFL Draft rate: 0%
Tight ends
2003 Steve Hogan, 2004 Peter Ullman, 2006 Britt Mitchell, 2006 Greg Smith, 2007 Ahmard Howard, 2007 Ian Harris, 2009 Trey Graham, 2009 Barrett Matthews, 2013 Geoff Swaim, 2014 Blake Whiteley, 2016 Peyton Aucoin, 2017 Cade Brewer, 2019 Jared Wiley and 2021 Juan Davis.
Notes: Out of the 13 players that have completed their eligibility, only Swaim (7th round by the Dallas Cowboys) ever played on Sundays and you could make a strong case that Brewer is the second-best contributor from this group.
NFL Draft rate: 7.7%
Offensive Linemen
2002 Brett Valdez, 2003 Kyle Thornton, 2003 Dallas Griffin, 2004 Adam Ulatoski, 2005 Charlie Tanner, 2005 Chris Hall, 2006 Roy Watts, 2006 Steve Moore, 2008 Luke Poehlmann, 2009 Paden Kelley, 2011 Taylor Doyle, 2011 Marcus Hutchins, 2013 Desmond Harrison, 2014 Elijah Rodriguez, 2014 Terrell Cuney, 2014 Alex Anderson, 2015 Garrett Thomas, 2015 Ronnie Major, 2015 Tristan Nickelson, 2016 Brandon Hodges, 2016 Tope Imade, 2016 Zach Shackelford, 2017 Sam Cosmi, 2017 Derek Kerstetter, 2018 Reese Moore, 2018 Rafiti Ghirmai, 2019 Willie Tyler, 2020 Andrej Karic, 2020 Jaylen Garth, 2020 Logan Parr, 2021 Hayden Conner, 2022 Lance St. Louis and 2022 Connor Robertson
Notes: Out of the 27 players that have completed their eligibility, only Cosmi was drafted. Harrison joins him as a guy that played on Sundays, but he literally never started a game for the Longhorns, no matter how much @Alex Dunlap tried to will it to happen. Other than that, most of the contributors on the list were never really more than pretty good at best, with the likely exception of Ulatoski. This is going to sound harsh, but I'd make the case that one of the problems Texas football has had in the last 15 years is that too many of those players ended up playing a lot of snaps for the program.
NFL Draft rate: 3.7%
No. 3 - Can I just take a brief moment to say ...
OF THE 73 OFFENSIVE PROSPECTS THAT TEXAS HAS TAKEN SINCE 2002, ONLY THREE WERE DRAFTED BY NFL TEAMS!!!!!!!!
No. 4 - Continuing with the Defense ...
Defensive Tackles
2003 Thomas Marshall, 2004 Derek Lokey, 2006 Ben Alexander, 2007 Tyrell Higgins, 2007 Michael Wilcoxon, 2010 Deaires Cotton, 2012 Brandon Moore, 2012 Alex Norman, 2014 Chris Nelson, 2014 Poona Ford, 2015 Du'Vonta Lampkin, 2016 Jordan Elliott, 2016 Gerald Wilbon, 2016 Marcel Southall, 2018 Christian Jones, 2018 Moro Ojomo, 2021 Byron Murphy, 2022 Aaron Bryant and 2022 Kris Ross
Notes: This is actually a group that performs very well, as Lokey, Ford and Elliott all played on Sundays. Of course, Ford was legitimately a great player for the Longhorns. Ironically, the only player (Elliott) from the group of the 14 that have completed their eligibility and was actually drafted only played in six games for the Longhorns before transferring. Getting at least 20+ of a contributor rate isn't a terrible number, especially when Ojomo and Murphy will end up boosting the numbers above 30%.
NFL Draft rate: 7.1%
Defensive Ends
2006 Brian Ellis, 2007 Sam Acho, 2009 Dominique Jones, 2009 Kyle Kriegel, 2012 Caleb Bluiett, 2012 Byrce Cotrell, 2014 Jake McMillon, 2015 Quincy Vasser, 2016 Malcolm Roach, 2016 Andrew Fitzgerald, 2017 Max Cummins, 2017 Jamari Chisholm, 2017 Taquan Graham, 2018 Daniel Carson, 2018 Mike Williams, 2019 T'Vondre Sweat, 2019 Peter Mpagi, 2019 Sawyer Gorham-Welch, 2021 David Abiara, 2021 Barryn Sorrell and 2021 Jordan Thomas,
Notes: Acho is obviously a big hit. Beyond him, Roach and Graham were hits of lesser extent, but still proved to be NFL-level talents. The problem is that almost all of the other players that have finished their eligibility turned out to be complete dudes. Yet, if Sweat has a big year in 2022 and Sorrell pans out as people inside the program hope, we could be talking about a position group with a near 25-percent success rate as quality performers.
NFL Draft rate: 12.5%
Linebackers
2002 Brian Robison, 2002 Marcus Myers, 2003 Scott Derry, 2004 Jeremy Campbell, 2004 Rashad Bobino, 2004 Nic Redwine, 2005 Roderrick Muckelroy, 2008 Dustin Earnest, 2008 Emmanuel Acho, 2009 Patrick Nkwopara, 2012 Dalton Santos, 2012 Alex De La Torre, 2013 Naashon Hughes, 2014 Cameron Hampton, 2014 Andrew Beck, 2015 Cameron Townsend, 2015 Breckyn Hager, 2018 Byron Hobbs, 2019 Caleb Johnson, 2019 Marcus Tillman, 2019 Juwan Mitchell, 2020 Jaylan Ford, 2021 Morice Blackwell, 2021 Terrence Cooks, 2022 Derrick Brown and 2022 Trevell Johnson
Notes: Robison, Muckelroy and Acho were all definite hits, but I'd argue that the program has missed on its last 12, with all due respect to Beck and Hager, who proved to be solid players at other positions. It's kind of a tricky group of players to talk about, but this is an undeniable fact - Texas hasn't struck gold (even remotely) at the actual linebacker position for its defense since the pre-Will Muschamp days.
NFL Draft rate: 13.6%
Defensive Backs
2002 Matthew Melton, 2003 Brandon Foster, 2004 Ryan Palmer, 2006 James Henry, 2008 Blake Gideon, 2010 Adrian White, 2011 Leroy Scott, 2012 Kevin Vaccaro, 2013 Erik Huhn, 2014 Jermaine Roberts, 2014 John Bonney, 2014 Jason Hall, 2015 PJ Locke, 2016 Eric Cuffee, 2016 Chris Brown, 2017 Kobe Boyce and 2019 Marquise Caldwell
Notes: There are a few decent college players in that group, including Foster, Palmer, Gideon and Brown, but not a single impact player ever emerged from a group of 17 players. You'd probably say that Gideon was the best of that group and only Brown warrants being in a conversation with him in the last 15 years.
NFL Draft rate: 0.0%
Athletes
2003 Eric Foreman, 2008 Antoine Hicks, 2012 Jalen Overstreet, 2012 Adrian Colbert, 2013 Chevoski Collins, 2014 D'Onta Foreman, 2015 Deandre McNeal, 2016 Lil'Jordan Humphrey, 2016 Donovan Duvernay, 2020 Kelvontay Dixon, 2020 Jaden Hullaby and 2022 Xavian Brice
Notes: It's interesting that two of the biggest hits of the last decade for the Longhorns on the offensive side of the ball, were listed as "athletes" coming out of high school. Colbert ended up being an NFL player, but only emerged into that kind of player after transferring from the program. Still, not too shabby, given the sample size.
NFL Draft rate: 18.2%
No. 5 - A few final thoughts and some rules ...
... If we mix in all of the athletes into the correct side of the ball, it means that four of the last 81 three-star players that the Longhorns have signed on the offensive side of the ball have eventually been drafted by NFL teams. That's 4.9%.
... The number of NFL drafted players from the defensive side of the ball stands at six in 75 over the last two decades. That's 8%.
... Of the 10 three-star players that have been drafted out of the 153 prospects who have completed their eligibility, the following were recruited post 2008 ... Geoff Swaim, Sam Cosmi, Jordan Elliott, Taquan Graham, Adrian Colbert and D'Onte Foreman. That's six players and two of them ended up transferring from Texas. Only two were All-Big 12 players.
... No three-star player ever recruited by Texas in the modern era of the Rivals rankings (2002) has ever been selected as a first-round pick.
You can throw in an occasional Marcus Johnson, Lil'Jordan Humphrey or Poona Ford, but the bottom line on these numbers remains poor.
Moving forward, the best thing the Texas program can do is let other programs develop these 1 in 10s and then poach them in the transfer portal.
The only exceptions that should be made are the following:
a. An occasional quarterback from the state of Texas. We'll call it the Colt McCoy rule.
b. An occasional BIG defensive lineman. No tweeners. They all need to be either a defensive tackle or a defensive end that is at least 6-4, 240 pounds.
c. Raw two-way athletes that can play on either side of the ball.
d. Kickers or Punters.
That's it.
Otherwise, that scholarship needs to be saved for a player coming through the Portal with more pure upside (think Agiye Hall) or proven credentials (think Isaiah Neyor).
No. 6 - Historical trends: In-State Defensive Tackles ...
A week ago in this column, we took a look at defensive ends from the Lone Star State and with the commitment of Sydir Mitchell, I thought it might be a good time to look at the defensive tackles that the state produces.
If some of you want the cliffs on this section without having to sort through the names, here are the key points.
a. 75% of five-star players from Texas from 2002-2017 were drafted by NFL teams and 87.5% played on Sundays.
b. 33.3% of high four-star players from Texas from 2004-2017 were drafted by NFL teams.
c. 0.0% of mid four-star players from Texas from 2004-2017 were drafted by NFL teams.
d. 11.8% of low four-star players from Texas from 2004-2017 were drafted by NFL teams.
e. 15.2% of high three-star players from Texas from 2004-2017 were drafted by NFL teams.
Here's how it all looks when you go under the hood of each rankings tier:
Let's look at the five-stars.
2002 - Rod Wright (Texas)
2004 - Frank Okam (Texas)
2005 - Demarcus Granger (Oklahoma)
2012 - Mario Edwards (Florida State)
2012 - Malcom Brown (Texas)
2013 - A'Shawn Robinson (Alabama)
2016 - Ed Oliver (Houston)
2017 - Marvin Wilson (Florida State)
Breakdown
* 6 of the 8 players (75.0%) were drafted by NFL teams and 7 of the 8 played on Sundays.
* 3 of the last 5 five-star defensive tackles since 2005 have been selected in the first round of the NFL Draft and another (Edwards) was selected in the second round.
Now let's look at the high four stars:
2005 - Roy Miller (Texas)
2007 - Andre Jones (Texas)
2008 - Jarvis Humphrey (Texas)
2009 - Jamarkus McFarland (Oklahoma)
2009 - Calvin Howell (Texas)
2015 - Daylon Mack (Texas A&M)
Breakdown
* 2 of the 6 players (33.0%) were drafted by NFL teams: Miller (3rd round) and Mack (5th round).
Mid Four Stars
2008 - Chancey Aghayere (LSU)
2010 - Ashton Dorsey (Texas)
2010 - Taylor Bible (Texas)
2013 - Justin Manning (Texas A&M)
2013 - Isaiah Golden (Texas A&M)
2013 - Kerrick Huggins (Oklahoma)
2014 - Deshawn Washington (Texas A&M)
2015 - Darrian Daniels (Oklahoma State)
Breakdown
* 0 of the 8 players (0.0%) were drafted by NFL teams.
Low Four Stars
2004 - Walter Thomas (Oklahoma State)
2005 - Vince Oghobaase (Duke)
2005 - Vincent Williams (Texas A&M)
2005 - Brandon Antwine (Florida)
2008 - Rod Davis (Texas A&M)
2008 - Kheeston Randall (Texas)
2010 - Eric Humphrey (Oklahoma)
2011 - Jordan Wade (Oklahoma)
2011 - Quincy Russell (Texas)
2011 - Desmond Jackson (Texas)
2011 - Marquis Anderson (Oklahoma)
2012 - Paul Boyette (Texas)
2013 - Hardreck Walker (Texas A&M)
2013 - Andrew Billings (Baylor)
2014 - Zaycoven Henderson (Texas A&M)
2016 - Chris Daniels (Texas)
2016 - Kendall Jones (Alabama)
Breakdown
* 2 of the 17 players (11.8%) were drafted by NFL teams.
No. 7 – BUY or SELL …
(Sell) Knowing that there's no real number that serves as a ceiling, I don't think we'll see guys get pushed out of the class, but it might mean that more guys from the program are "processed" in order to fit them all in next August.
(Buy) I hate watching football games that don't matter and far too often on college football weekends, we're limited to one or two games each week mattering. In my mind, cutting the dead weight and streamlining the sport is going to lead to a better product on our televisions each week. There's not a single team that will get left out of the super heavyweight conferences that I really care about.
(Sell) I can't buy that until I see some evidence. I know the smart thing for me to say as the owner of this site is to tell you yes, but I wouldn't be able to look myself in the mirror if I started to just tell you what you wanted to hear. Hell, this entire column this week is full of stuff I'm not sure any of you want to hear or see.
(Sell) Come on...
(Buy) That's an easy one for me because I definitely think Johntay Cook is going to get his fifth star and Connor Stroh will get bumped up to four stars.
(Sell) Eight will likely do.
(Buy) There's no reason to think that Texas' ability to recruit California is going to decrease in the coming years.
(Sell) I don't think the game is going to be that close.
(Sell) I want you to know that you get an A+ for creativity and consideration for the question that you've asked, but generally speaking, alumni wealth isn't a major consideration for most kids making decisions.
(Buy) I think he wins the Heisman if all of that happens.
(Sell) It would likely be really close and it would likely mean that this season is a disaster on the field and that Sarkisian is in real trouble. I'm still selling, but it would be damn close. The pitchforks would definitely come out.
(Buy) This is still a defense that lacks proven playmakers. That hasn't changed.
No. 8 - Scattershooting on the sports weekend ...
... The NBA is freaking never boring. Never.
... I'm not sure where I want Kevin Durant to be traded, but please don't let it be the Boston Celtics. I can live with anything else, but I can't live with that.
... The Lakers trading for Kyrie Irving when the rest of the league won't touch him is pretty much the most Lakers thing ever. I can't believe LeBron James is going to trust the rest of his "prime" years with Irving. What could possibly go wrong?
... Zion is just stealing money at this point. Hundreds of millions.
... P.J. Tucker is a Sixer. That makes me really happy.
... It's almost time for me to be a fantasy football commish. I vow to be a better commish this season. I'm tired of @Anwar Richardson suggesting I hand control over to someone else.
... I'm thinking I'm going to take my kids to an Astros game this month.
... For the Texas hard-ball fans out there. This will make you smile.
... Mo Salah! Mo Salah! Running down the Wing! Consider me very surprised that FSG gave Salah the money he wanted in order to get him to agree to an extension. Consider me a happy boy.
... I may or may not have cackled this weekend when the Cristiano Ronaldo news came out of Manchester on Saturday ...
... I have a hunch Wimbledon is going to be really good this week.
No. 9 - The List: Top 10 Guns N Roses songs ...
Never in a million years would I have believed 25 years ago that Guns N Roses would be touring in 2022, but somehow we've made it.
And Carrie Underwood is performing with them.
It seems like as good of a reason as any to do a Top 10 list. I'm sure there will be zero disagreement.
10. Live and Let Die
9. Mr. Brownstone
8. Rocket Queen
7. Estranged
6. Patience
5. Knockin on Heaven's Door
4. Paradise City
3. Sweet Child O' Mine
2. November Rain
1. Welcome to the Jungle
No. 10 - And Finally ...
Dogs, man. Dogs.
When I see BAYLOR with 3 Big 12 conference championships since 2010 to our ZERO... all I want to see is WINNING... and being in the championship game.
We have been totally WOEFUL about the talent that we developed... and I've been more than envious seeing what the Baylor's, OSU's, K-States and ISU's have done with 2 and 3 stars. JUST WIN.
More to your point, the Sooners have proven what can be done with "high star" talent. We can get the talent. Sark needs to move that needle on the "culture thing".
again, it depends on the size of the class.
If we're looking at the Texas 2023 recruiting class, I'd probably go 2/3 HS kids ad 1/3 portal.
Probably 20/10.
I'll absolutely argue that there will be players like A. Hall, who Texas will be able to find in the portal every year, over a lower rated wide receiver.
Texas ended up taking seven guys in the Portal and would have taken 10+ if it could have.
I'm leaving that kind of space every year.
Its on the Twitter.
Brock Fitzhenry, that offer always (to me) seemed like Mack throwing a bone to his father and high school coach. I think Giddings was pretty decent around that time.
I get the 3 star bash
I do not hate three-star prospects.
Before I go any further, I feel like I should stress this.
No three-star high school football prospect ever took away any of my ex-girlfriends that I'm aware of. Or took my lunch money. Or bullied me on a basketball court.
None of this is personal.
I just don't think a program with significant aspirations as a major college football program should be making significant investments in them in the age of the college football portal.
Of course, it's not an opinion that most college football coaches would likely agree with and that includes the entire Texas Longhorns coaching staff. Yet, I'm not going to back down from this particular hot take, which feels like less of a hot take and more like common sense from my perspective. In the coming paragraphs, I'm going to try and pull you to my way of thinking.
Before I hit you over the head with math, I'm going to begin with a little common sense. Two of the biggest issues facing the three-star prospect at a program like Texas are time and patience. Neither the prospect nor the program typically have enough of either.
More times than not, the average college football prospect needs two or three years to develop before he begins to scratch the surface of becoming a plus-player at a major program (if it ever happens). If you happen to find a player that is comfortable with a three-year window of development, that player has to hope that he doesn't get recruited over in the process.
Take the three different three-star offensive linemen in the Class of 2020 for the Longhorns - Andrej Karic, Jaylen Garth and Logan Parr. None of the three have been in the program for three seasons yet, but when those players reach their third seasons of the program, they'll be staring at the likes of Kelvin Banks, Devon Campbell, Neto Umeozulu and the rest of the 2022 offensive line class that will likely moved above them in the pecking order as younger players.
The reality at a program like Texas is that a player usually starts to contribute in his first or second season in the program or he gets recruited over or bypassed by someone from the portal. Almost by definition, most three-star prospects aren't ready to contribute at high levels in their first couple of seasons.
See the rub?
Let's take a look at some recent history in the Texas program.
Of the 7 three- and two-star (non-kicking) prospects that the Longhorns signed in 2018, the best of the lot is probably Moro Ojomo. The only other contributor is Christian Jones. Everyone else is gone.
Of the 10 three-star players in the 2019 recruiting class, only Roschon Johnson and T'Vondre Sweat remain in the program. Everyone else is gone.
Of the 9 three-star players from the 2020 class, only Jaylan Ford and Jahdae Barron are sure contributors on the 2022 team.
It's not that three stars never hit. It's that you have to sort through a lot of misses to get to them. During that three-year window, a major college program can't have aspirations for the very top and only come away with five pretty good players out of a 26-player pile of players. That's a 20-percent return on the program's investment and it includes two back-up defensive tackles, a back-up running back, a starting cornerback and a starting inside linebacker that the staff has been trying all-off-season to upgrade on.
Johnson and Barron look like players that will play in the NFL from my vantage point, but getting a 7.7% return on high-level players just isn't good enough. Typically, hitting on the average three-star prospect is a 1 in 10 proposition.
It's like going to the county fair and shooting hoops on a 12-foot goal with a crooked rim, only to win a $20 stuffed panda after you've spent $40.
That's not winning as much as it's not walking away with a total disaster.
No. 2 - Let's look under the burnt orange hood ...
As we work our way through this conversation, let's take a look at the long-term success of the Longhorns with regards to taking three-star prospects by looking at every three-star that Texas has ever signed by position.
Quarterbacks
2005 Colt McCoy, 2006 Sherrod Harris, 2007 G.J. Kinne, 2019 Case McCoy, 2011 David Ash, 2019 Roschon Johnson and 2021 Charles Wright
Notes: What an eclectic little group of players. Technically, only one of the players that has completed his eligibility hit for the Longhorns, but that hit has his number retired. Meanwhile, the second McCoy on this list had some big wins as a starter and it's impossible to know what might have happened with Ash had concussions not ended his career.
NFL Draft rate: 20%
Two things I'd say about this group ...
a. By the time we get to the end of this discussion, I'm going to make a mini-exemption for quarterbacks.
b. I personally rated McCoy and Ash as four stars. Just wanted to say that for the record.
Running backs
2002 Clint Haney, 2005 Jerrell Wilkerson, 2005 Michael Houston, 2006 Antwan Cobb, 2008 Brock Fitzhenry, 2008 Tre Newton, 2008 Ryan Roberson, 2011 Joe Bergeron, 2014 Kevin Shorter, 2016 Tristian Houston and 2017 Daniel Young.
Notes: Technically, D'Onta Foreman was ranked as an athlete, which means that either Newton or Bergeron are the best players out of this group. That tells a story.
NFL Draft rate: 0%
Wide Receivers
2002 Dustin Miksch, 2004 Chris Ogbonnaya, 2004 Nate Jones, 2006 John Marshall, 2011 Miles Onyegbule, 2012 Marcus Johnson, 2013 Montrel Meander, 2014 Dorian Leonard, 2014 Garrett Gray, 2014 Roderick Bernard, 2015 Gilbert Johnson, 2015 Ryan Newsome, 2015 Davion Curtis, 2016 Reggie Hemphill-Mapps, 2017 Jordan Pouncey, 2019 Kennedy Lewis, 2020 Dajon Harrison, 2021 Casey Cain, 2021 Keithron Lee and 2022 Savion Redd
Notes: Going all the way back to Marcus Johnson in 2012, the Longhorns are 0 for their last 12 (not counting Cain or Redd). The three best players from this group are Johnson (who, I ironically ranked as a four-star), Jones and Ogbonnaya - none of whom where all-conference level players as starters, even if all three played on Sundays (one at running back).
NFL Draft rate: 0%
Tight ends
2003 Steve Hogan, 2004 Peter Ullman, 2006 Britt Mitchell, 2006 Greg Smith, 2007 Ahmard Howard, 2007 Ian Harris, 2009 Trey Graham, 2009 Barrett Matthews, 2013 Geoff Swaim, 2014 Blake Whiteley, 2016 Peyton Aucoin, 2017 Cade Brewer, 2019 Jared Wiley and 2021 Juan Davis.
Notes: Out of the 13 players that have completed their eligibility, only Swaim (7th round by the Dallas Cowboys) ever played on Sundays and you could make a strong case that Brewer is the second-best contributor from this group.
NFL Draft rate: 7.7%
Offensive Linemen
2002 Brett Valdez, 2003 Kyle Thornton, 2003 Dallas Griffin, 2004 Adam Ulatoski, 2005 Charlie Tanner, 2005 Chris Hall, 2006 Roy Watts, 2006 Steve Moore, 2008 Luke Poehlmann, 2009 Paden Kelley, 2011 Taylor Doyle, 2011 Marcus Hutchins, 2013 Desmond Harrison, 2014 Elijah Rodriguez, 2014 Terrell Cuney, 2014 Alex Anderson, 2015 Garrett Thomas, 2015 Ronnie Major, 2015 Tristan Nickelson, 2016 Brandon Hodges, 2016 Tope Imade, 2016 Zach Shackelford, 2017 Sam Cosmi, 2017 Derek Kerstetter, 2018 Reese Moore, 2018 Rafiti Ghirmai, 2019 Willie Tyler, 2020 Andrej Karic, 2020 Jaylen Garth, 2020 Logan Parr, 2021 Hayden Conner, 2022 Lance St. Louis and 2022 Connor Robertson
Notes: Out of the 27 players that have completed their eligibility, only Cosmi was drafted. Harrison joins him as a guy that played on Sundays, but he literally never started a game for the Longhorns, no matter how much @Alex Dunlap tried to will it to happen. Other than that, most of the contributors on the list were never really more than pretty good at best, with the likely exception of Ulatoski. This is going to sound harsh, but I'd make the case that one of the problems Texas football has had in the last 15 years is that too many of those players ended up playing a lot of snaps for the program.
NFL Draft rate: 3.7%
No. 3 - Can I just take a brief moment to say ...
OF THE 73 OFFENSIVE PROSPECTS THAT TEXAS HAS TAKEN SINCE 2002, ONLY THREE WERE DRAFTED BY NFL TEAMS!!!!!!!!
No. 4 - Continuing with the Defense ...
Defensive Tackles
2003 Thomas Marshall, 2004 Derek Lokey, 2006 Ben Alexander, 2007 Tyrell Higgins, 2007 Michael Wilcoxon, 2010 Deaires Cotton, 2012 Brandon Moore, 2012 Alex Norman, 2014 Chris Nelson, 2014 Poona Ford, 2015 Du'Vonta Lampkin, 2016 Jordan Elliott, 2016 Gerald Wilbon, 2016 Marcel Southall, 2018 Christian Jones, 2018 Moro Ojomo, 2021 Byron Murphy, 2022 Aaron Bryant and 2022 Kris Ross
Notes: This is actually a group that performs very well, as Lokey, Ford and Elliott all played on Sundays. Of course, Ford was legitimately a great player for the Longhorns. Ironically, the only player (Elliott) from the group of the 14 that have completed their eligibility and was actually drafted only played in six games for the Longhorns before transferring. Getting at least 20+ of a contributor rate isn't a terrible number, especially when Ojomo and Murphy will end up boosting the numbers above 30%.
NFL Draft rate: 7.1%
Defensive Ends
2006 Brian Ellis, 2007 Sam Acho, 2009 Dominique Jones, 2009 Kyle Kriegel, 2012 Caleb Bluiett, 2012 Byrce Cotrell, 2014 Jake McMillon, 2015 Quincy Vasser, 2016 Malcolm Roach, 2016 Andrew Fitzgerald, 2017 Max Cummins, 2017 Jamari Chisholm, 2017 Taquan Graham, 2018 Daniel Carson, 2018 Mike Williams, 2019 T'Vondre Sweat, 2019 Peter Mpagi, 2019 Sawyer Gorham-Welch, 2021 David Abiara, 2021 Barryn Sorrell and 2021 Jordan Thomas,
Notes: Acho is obviously a big hit. Beyond him, Roach and Graham were hits of lesser extent, but still proved to be NFL-level talents. The problem is that almost all of the other players that have finished their eligibility turned out to be complete dudes. Yet, if Sweat has a big year in 2022 and Sorrell pans out as people inside the program hope, we could be talking about a position group with a near 25-percent success rate as quality performers.
NFL Draft rate: 12.5%
Linebackers
2002 Brian Robison, 2002 Marcus Myers, 2003 Scott Derry, 2004 Jeremy Campbell, 2004 Rashad Bobino, 2004 Nic Redwine, 2005 Roderrick Muckelroy, 2008 Dustin Earnest, 2008 Emmanuel Acho, 2009 Patrick Nkwopara, 2012 Dalton Santos, 2012 Alex De La Torre, 2013 Naashon Hughes, 2014 Cameron Hampton, 2014 Andrew Beck, 2015 Cameron Townsend, 2015 Breckyn Hager, 2018 Byron Hobbs, 2019 Caleb Johnson, 2019 Marcus Tillman, 2019 Juwan Mitchell, 2020 Jaylan Ford, 2021 Morice Blackwell, 2021 Terrence Cooks, 2022 Derrick Brown and 2022 Trevell Johnson
Notes: Robison, Muckelroy and Acho were all definite hits, but I'd argue that the program has missed on its last 12, with all due respect to Beck and Hager, who proved to be solid players at other positions. It's kind of a tricky group of players to talk about, but this is an undeniable fact - Texas hasn't struck gold (even remotely) at the actual linebacker position for its defense since the pre-Will Muschamp days.
NFL Draft rate: 13.6%
Defensive Backs
2002 Matthew Melton, 2003 Brandon Foster, 2004 Ryan Palmer, 2006 James Henry, 2008 Blake Gideon, 2010 Adrian White, 2011 Leroy Scott, 2012 Kevin Vaccaro, 2013 Erik Huhn, 2014 Jermaine Roberts, 2014 John Bonney, 2014 Jason Hall, 2015 PJ Locke, 2016 Eric Cuffee, 2016 Chris Brown, 2017 Kobe Boyce and 2019 Marquise Caldwell
Notes: There are a few decent college players in that group, including Foster, Palmer, Gideon and Brown, but not a single impact player ever emerged from a group of 17 players. You'd probably say that Gideon was the best of that group and only Brown warrants being in a conversation with him in the last 15 years.
NFL Draft rate: 0.0%
Athletes
2003 Eric Foreman, 2008 Antoine Hicks, 2012 Jalen Overstreet, 2012 Adrian Colbert, 2013 Chevoski Collins, 2014 D'Onta Foreman, 2015 Deandre McNeal, 2016 Lil'Jordan Humphrey, 2016 Donovan Duvernay, 2020 Kelvontay Dixon, 2020 Jaden Hullaby and 2022 Xavian Brice
Notes: It's interesting that two of the biggest hits of the last decade for the Longhorns on the offensive side of the ball, were listed as "athletes" coming out of high school. Colbert ended up being an NFL player, but only emerged into that kind of player after transferring from the program. Still, not too shabby, given the sample size.
NFL Draft rate: 18.2%
No. 5 - A few final thoughts and some rules ...
... If we mix in all of the athletes into the correct side of the ball, it means that four of the last 81 three-star players that the Longhorns have signed on the offensive side of the ball have eventually been drafted by NFL teams. That's 4.9%.
... The number of NFL drafted players from the defensive side of the ball stands at six in 75 over the last two decades. That's 8%.
... Of the 10 three-star players that have been drafted out of the 153 prospects who have completed their eligibility, the following were recruited post 2008 ... Geoff Swaim, Sam Cosmi, Jordan Elliott, Taquan Graham, Adrian Colbert and D'Onte Foreman. That's six players and two of them ended up transferring from Texas. Only two were All-Big 12 players.
... No three-star player ever recruited by Texas in the modern era of the Rivals rankings (2002) has ever been selected as a first-round pick.
You can throw in an occasional Marcus Johnson, Lil'Jordan Humphrey or Poona Ford, but the bottom line on these numbers remains poor.
Moving forward, the best thing the Texas program can do is let other programs develop these 1 in 10s and then poach them in the transfer portal.
The only exceptions that should be made are the following:
a. An occasional quarterback from the state of Texas. We'll call it the Colt McCoy rule.
b. An occasional BIG defensive lineman. No tweeners. They all need to be either a defensive tackle or a defensive end that is at least 6-4, 240 pounds.
c. Raw two-way athletes that can play on either side of the ball.
d. Kickers or Punters.
That's it.
Otherwise, that scholarship needs to be saved for a player coming through the Portal with more pure upside (think Agiye Hall) or proven credentials (think Isaiah Neyor).
No. 6 - Historical trends: In-State Defensive Tackles ...
A week ago in this column, we took a look at defensive ends from the Lone Star State and with the commitment of Sydir Mitchell, I thought it might be a good time to look at the defensive tackles that the state produces.
If some of you want the cliffs on this section without having to sort through the names, here are the key points.
a. 75% of five-star players from Texas from 2002-2017 were drafted by NFL teams and 87.5% played on Sundays.
b. 33.3% of high four-star players from Texas from 2004-2017 were drafted by NFL teams.
c. 0.0% of mid four-star players from Texas from 2004-2017 were drafted by NFL teams.
d. 11.8% of low four-star players from Texas from 2004-2017 were drafted by NFL teams.
e. 15.2% of high three-star players from Texas from 2004-2017 were drafted by NFL teams.
Here's how it all looks when you go under the hood of each rankings tier:
Let's look at the five-stars.
2002 - Rod Wright (Texas)
2004 - Frank Okam (Texas)
2005 - Demarcus Granger (Oklahoma)
2012 - Mario Edwards (Florida State)
2012 - Malcom Brown (Texas)
2013 - A'Shawn Robinson (Alabama)
2016 - Ed Oliver (Houston)
2017 - Marvin Wilson (Florida State)
Breakdown
* 6 of the 8 players (75.0%) were drafted by NFL teams and 7 of the 8 played on Sundays.
* 3 of the last 5 five-star defensive tackles since 2005 have been selected in the first round of the NFL Draft and another (Edwards) was selected in the second round.
Now let's look at the high four stars:
2005 - Roy Miller (Texas)
2007 - Andre Jones (Texas)
2008 - Jarvis Humphrey (Texas)
2009 - Jamarkus McFarland (Oklahoma)
2009 - Calvin Howell (Texas)
2015 - Daylon Mack (Texas A&M)
Breakdown
* 2 of the 6 players (33.0%) were drafted by NFL teams: Miller (3rd round) and Mack (5th round).
Mid Four Stars
2008 - Chancey Aghayere (LSU)
2010 - Ashton Dorsey (Texas)
2010 - Taylor Bible (Texas)
2013 - Justin Manning (Texas A&M)
2013 - Isaiah Golden (Texas A&M)
2013 - Kerrick Huggins (Oklahoma)
2014 - Deshawn Washington (Texas A&M)
2015 - Darrian Daniels (Oklahoma State)
Breakdown
* 0 of the 8 players (0.0%) were drafted by NFL teams.
Low Four Stars
2004 - Walter Thomas (Oklahoma State)
2005 - Vince Oghobaase (Duke)
2005 - Vincent Williams (Texas A&M)
2005 - Brandon Antwine (Florida)
2008 - Rod Davis (Texas A&M)
2008 - Kheeston Randall (Texas)
2010 - Eric Humphrey (Oklahoma)
2011 - Jordan Wade (Oklahoma)
2011 - Quincy Russell (Texas)
2011 - Desmond Jackson (Texas)
2011 - Marquis Anderson (Oklahoma)
2012 - Paul Boyette (Texas)
2013 - Hardreck Walker (Texas A&M)
2013 - Andrew Billings (Baylor)
2014 - Zaycoven Henderson (Texas A&M)
2016 - Chris Daniels (Texas)
2016 - Kendall Jones (Alabama)
Breakdown
* 2 of the 17 players (11.8%) were drafted by NFL teams.
No. 7 – BUY or SELL …
(Sell) Knowing that there's no real number that serves as a ceiling, I don't think we'll see guys get pushed out of the class, but it might mean that more guys from the program are "processed" in order to fit them all in next August.
(Buy) I hate watching football games that don't matter and far too often on college football weekends, we're limited to one or two games each week mattering. In my mind, cutting the dead weight and streamlining the sport is going to lead to a better product on our televisions each week. There's not a single team that will get left out of the super heavyweight conferences that I really care about.
(Sell) I can't buy that until I see some evidence. I know the smart thing for me to say as the owner of this site is to tell you yes, but I wouldn't be able to look myself in the mirror if I started to just tell you what you wanted to hear. Hell, this entire column this week is full of stuff I'm not sure any of you want to hear or see.
(Sell) Come on...
(Buy) That's an easy one for me because I definitely think Johntay Cook is going to get his fifth star and Connor Stroh will get bumped up to four stars.
(Sell) Eight will likely do.
(Buy) There's no reason to think that Texas' ability to recruit California is going to decrease in the coming years.
(Sell) I don't think the game is going to be that close.
(Sell) I want you to know that you get an A+ for creativity and consideration for the question that you've asked, but generally speaking, alumni wealth isn't a major consideration for most kids making decisions.
(Buy) I think he wins the Heisman if all of that happens.
(Sell) It would likely be really close and it would likely mean that this season is a disaster on the field and that Sarkisian is in real trouble. I'm still selling, but it would be damn close. The pitchforks would definitely come out.
(Buy) This is still a defense that lacks proven playmakers. That hasn't changed.
No. 8 - Scattershooting on the sports weekend ...
... The NBA is freaking never boring. Never.
... I'm not sure where I want Kevin Durant to be traded, but please don't let it be the Boston Celtics. I can live with anything else, but I can't live with that.
... The Lakers trading for Kyrie Irving when the rest of the league won't touch him is pretty much the most Lakers thing ever. I can't believe LeBron James is going to trust the rest of his "prime" years with Irving. What could possibly go wrong?
... Zion is just stealing money at this point. Hundreds of millions.
... P.J. Tucker is a Sixer. That makes me really happy.
... It's almost time for me to be a fantasy football commish. I vow to be a better commish this season. I'm tired of @Anwar Richardson suggesting I hand control over to someone else.
... I'm thinking I'm going to take my kids to an Astros game this month.
... For the Texas hard-ball fans out there. This will make you smile.
... Mo Salah! Mo Salah! Running down the Wing! Consider me very surprised that FSG gave Salah the money he wanted in order to get him to agree to an extension. Consider me a happy boy.
... I may or may not have cackled this weekend when the Cristiano Ronaldo news came out of Manchester on Saturday ...
... I have a hunch Wimbledon is going to be really good this week.
No. 9 - The List: Top 10 Guns N Roses songs ...
Never in a million years would I have believed 25 years ago that Guns N Roses would be touring in 2022, but somehow we've made it.
And Carrie Underwood is performing with them.
It seems like as good of a reason as any to do a Top 10 list. I'm sure there will be zero disagreement.
10. Live and Let Die
9. Mr. Brownstone
8. Rocket Queen
7. Estranged
6. Patience
5. Knockin on Heaven's Door
4. Paradise City
3. Sweet Child O' Mine
2. November Rain
1. Welcome to the Jungle
No. 10 - And Finally ...
Dogs, man. Dogs.
Let’s hope these coaches are just flat out better developers of talent
but stats are stats and data is data
GNR
You could be mine is a Top 10 song
For me
From last November.
Ketch's 10 Thoughts From the Weekend (USC took OU's cornbread)
USC took Oklahoma's cornbread. Yes, I know some of you hate this particular metaphor, but when the metaphor fits perfectly, you have to go with it. Don't get me wrong, the Sooners are going to get a good replacement when the dust settles. Joe Castiglione has proven to be quite savvy in making...
texas.forums.rivals.com
No. 4 - The 2021 Transfer Class ... how good was it?
In an effort to give everyone an idea of the type of impact that can be found in the transfer portal, I decided to research the production from The Athletic's Top 50 Transfers from this summer.
From my vantage point in reviewing the data, there were as many flat out difference makers/game changers than there were busts/players that didn't emerge as starters in year one of their transfers.
Take a gander...
1. RB Eric Gray (Oklahoma via Tennessee) - Although he still has a season of eligibility remaining, Gray was a bust for the Sooners in the first year upon arriving from Knoxville. Finished the regular season with only 330 yards rushing as the chief back-up to Kennedy Brooks. Interesting enough, his yards per carry (4.8) were right in line with what he did at Tennessee in 2020 (4.9)
2. LB Henry To’o To’o (Alabama via Tennessee) - Leads the Tide in tackles (93), while ranking fourth on the team in tackles for loss (8.0) and sacks (4.0).
3. DB Tyrique Stevenson (Miami via Georgia) - Regarded as one of the top corners in the ACC this season. Finished with 40 tackles, one interception and a team-best four pass break-ups in 10 regular season games. Still has multiple seasons of eligibility remaining.
4. DE Jermaine Johnson (Florida State via Georgia) - Was a monster for the Seminoles this season, ranking first in sacks (12), tackles for loss (18) and finished second on the team in tackles (70).
5. DT Siaki Ika (Baylor via LSU) - Has been a rock for the Bears at nose-tackle all season. Has 3.5 sacks this season as a sophomore.
6. TE Aril Gilbert (Georgia via LSU) - Hasn't played this season because of personal issues and it remains to be seen whether he ever plays for the Dawgs.
7. Tykee Smith (Georgia via West Virginia) - Suffered from a broken foot early in the season, only to tear an ACL in October just as he was starting to return to action.
8. QB Jack Coan (Notre Dame via Wisconsin) - Has been a quality starter for the Irish this season, posting a 160 season efficiency rating, while posting an 18/5 TD:INT ratio.
9. CB Derion Kendrick (Georgia via Clemson) - Has started all season for the Dawgs at cornerback, compiling 32 tackles, 2 interceptions and 3 pass break-ups.
10. OL Cain Madden (Notre Dame via Marshall) - Started a little slow in September, but has emerged as one of the best starting offensive linemen for the Irish. Hasn't allowed a single quarterback pressure since early October and has graded out as one of the best run blockers on the team.
11. WR Wan'Dale Robinson (Kentucky via Nebraska) - Will likely earn all-SEC honors this season after catching 94 passes for 1,154 yards and seven touchdowns for the Wildcats.
12. WR Charleston Rambo (Miami via Oklahoma) - Set school records in catches (79) and receiving yards (1,172) for the Hurricanes this season.
13. QB McKenzie Milton (FSU via Central Florida) - Played sparingly throughout the season for the Noles and posted pretty poor numbers (3 TD/5 INT) in the process.
14. RB Ty Chandler (UNC via Tennessee) - Has been one of the best players for the Tar Heels all season, rushing for 1,063 yards, 13 touchdowns and 6.1 yards per carry.
15. DB Kenderick Duncan (Louisville via Georgia Southern) - Duncan was one of the best players for the Cardinals this season, ranking third in total tackles (76), an interception and pass break-ups.
16. DE Deandre Johnson (Miami via Tennessee) - Posted 26 tackles, 8 tackles for loss, 4.5 sacks and 5 quarterback pressures.
17. DE Keion White (Georgia Tech via Old Dominion) - Injuries got the best of White this season, who only played in four games in an effort to preserve a season of eligibility.
18. LB Mike Jones Jr. - (LSU via Clemson) - Was a disappointment for the Tigers, in making only 31 tackles and 1.5 tackles for loss in 12 games this season. Still has multiple seasons of eligibility remaining.
19. WR Jameson Williams - (Alabama via Ohio State) - Competing for All-American honors with the Tide, as he currently has 59 receptions for 1,218 yards and 13 touchdowns.
20. QB Charlie Brewer (Utah via Baylor) - Left the Utes program in September after losing his starting job to former Texas quarterback Cameron Rising.
21. QB - Tyler Shough (Texas Tech via Oregon) - Started the season well for the Red Raiders (164 efficiency rating), but missed the majority of the season because of injury.
22. OL Obinna Eze (TCU via Memphis) - Started every game at left tackle all season for the Horned Frogs and was one of the bright spots in a disappointing season for TCU.
23. DT Antonio Shelton (Florida via Penn State) - Didn't emerge as a real impact player for the Gators. Played in 12 games, but only recorded 21 tackles and three tackles for loss.
24. DT Daquan Newkirk (Florida vis Auburn) - Battled injuries this season and was limited to 8 games, only making 16 tackles and 1.5 tackles for loss in the process.
25. DE Arnold Ebiketie (Penn State via Temple) - Was one of the best defensive ends in the Big 10 this season, recording 62 tackles, 18 tackles for loss and 9.5 sacks.
26. OL Doug Nester (West Virginia via Virginia Tech) - Started all season for the Mountaineers at guard during his junior season, despite having to deal with a broken hand for most of the year. Graded out as one of West Virginia's best linemen all season.
27. DE Jordan Strachan (South Carolina via Georgia State) - Was solid in his 12 games with the Gamecocks, recording 21 tackles, 4.5 tackles for loss and 1.5 sacks.
28. OL Dare Rosenthal (Kentucky via LSU) - Started at left tackle for the Wildcats all season and is expected to be a name that NFL scouts have an interest in during the spring.
29. RB Zach Charbonnet (UCLA via Michigan) - Has rushed for 1,031 yards and 12 touchdowns this season for the Bruins as a junior.
30. RB Kenneth Walker (Michigan State via Wake Forest) - Was an early Heisman candidate and one of the best players in the Big 10, rushing for 1,498 yards and 17 touchdowns for the Spartans.
31. LB Isaac Slade-Matautia (SMU via Oregon) - Had a disappointing season for the Mustangs after leading Oregon in tackles in 2020. Finished the regular season with only 21 tackles.
32. QB Will Levis - (Kentucky via Penn State) - Has been more than rock solid as Kentucky's starting quarterback this season, finishing with 23 touchdowns, 12 interceptions and a 149.6 efficiency rating.
33. QB Ryan Hilinski (Northwestern via South Carolina) - Still has two seasons of eligibility remaining, but he was pretty awful in 2021, posting a 101.7 passing efficiency.
34. DT Jay Toia (UCLA via USC) - Only played in 8 games as a freshman this season and made virtually no impact for the Bruins.
35. DE Ryder Anderson (Indiana via Ole Miss) - Was one of the best players for the Hoosiers this season, ranking fifth in tackles (48), second in tackles for loss (8.5) and second in sacks (3.5).
36. DB TJ Carter (TCU via Memphis) - One of the top defensive players for the Horned Frogs at safety, finishing second on the team in tackles.
37. DB Julius Brents (Kansas State via Iowa) - Started all season for the Wildcats as a junior, finishing with 44 tackles and 3 tackles for loss.
38. DB Akayleb Evans (Missouri vi Tulsa) - Started all season for the Tigers at cornerback and received a Senior Bowl invite with his strong play.
39. RB Keaontay Ingram (USC via Texas) - Ingram's senior season was derailed at the end by injury, but he still finished with 911 yards and five touchdowns.
40. WR Samori Toure (Nebraska via Montana) - Was possibly Nebraska's best offensive player with 48 receptions for 898 yards, 5 touchdowns and a 19.5 yards per reception.
41. WR D.J. Matthews (Indiana via FSU) - Was just starting to take off (5 receptions for 120 yards vs. Cincinnati) when an injury ended his season.
42. TE Jelani Woods (Virginia via Oklahoma State) - Ranked as one of the best tight ends in the nation this year as a junior, as he finished with 44 receptions for 598 yards and 8 touchdowns.
43. DB Jammie Robinson (Florida State via South Carolina) - Was fantastic for the Noles this season, leading the team in tackles (85), interceptions (4) and forced fumbles (2).
44. DE Keir Thomas (Florida State via South Carolina) - Was a solid playmaker off the edge for the Noles, ranking second on the team in tackles for loss (12) and sacks (6.5).
45. LB Palaie Gaoteote IV (Ohio State via USC) - A total non-factor for the Buckeyes this season.
46. DE Kevin Harris (Georgia tech via Alabama) - A total non-factor for Tech this season.
47. OL Wanya Morris (Oklahoma via Tennessee) - The junior started the season as a starter at tackle, but lost his job to Tyrese Robinson. Will compete for the vacated starting spot next season.
48. DB DB Key Lawrence (Oklahoma via Tennessee) - The sophomore ranked fifth on the team in tackles (45) and tied for the team lead in pass break-ups.
49. DB Marquis Waters (Texas Tech via Duke) - Injuries limited his season to only four games in an effort to preserve a season of eligibility.
50. DE Byron Vaughns (Utah State via Texas) - The former Longhorn emerged as a playmaker for the Aggies as a junior, finishing the season with 35 tackles, 8.5 tackles for loss and 3.5 sacks.
For those wondering how the numbers from the top 50 turned out, I counted 12 significant difference makers (24%), 31 starters/significant contributors (62%), 13 busts/non-starters (26%) and 6 injury-marred seasons (12%).
No. 5 - Focusing on the offensive line ...
With the needs along the Texas offensive line going into next season so vital to this team's ability to improve, I thought I would expand the breakdown of the 2021 transfer portal with a look at just the offensive line.
Of the 5 offensive linemen that rank in The Athletics Top 50, four (Notre Dame's Cain Madden, TCU's Obinna Eze, West Virginia's Doug Nester and Kentucky's Dare Rosenthal) were season-long starters for their new teams.
Here's a look at the rest of the offensive linemen from the Top 100 list.
55. Jacob Gall (Baylor via Buffalo) - Has started every game at left guard for the Bears this season. Another grad transfer (Grant Miller) has started every game at right guard for the Bears.
60. Justice Oluwaseun (Miami via UNLV) - In his junior season with the Canes, Oluwaseun started at tackle and played multiple positions for the Miami offensive line.
63. Danny Godlevske (Oklahoma State via Miami Ohio) - Has started most of the season for the Cowboys at center, but has missed the last couple of games due to injury.
74. T.J. Storment (Texas Tech via TCU) - When healthy, Storment was a starter at tackle for the Red Raiders and one of their best linemen.
84. Jahmir Johnson (Texas A&M via Tennessee) - Started at left tackle all season for the Aggies.
85. Kody Russey (Houston via Louisiana Tech) - Has started at center all season for the Cougars.
100. Liam Dobson (Texas State via Maine) - Started all season at right tackle for the Bobcats.
Overall, 10 of the top 11 offensive line transfers available in the portal ended up being starters with the schools they signed with.
In my mind, I'm leading the charge of the evolution of how teams are built in college football. I'm way ahead of the curve on all of this, mostly because I've mastered historical data in ways most people haven't even thought to look over.
This info doesn't exist inside of most, if any, college football office.
This is probably what guys used to say to when they were told the RBI didn't matter and that on-base percentage was really important.
Fitzhenry was a great HS player and was eager to say yes.
That's kind of all Mack was looking for sometimes.
You are largely talking about the evaluations by Charlie Strong's and Tom Herman's staffs. Let's see how this staff does with its evaluations. I am not expecting miracles, but I expect they (the commitments) either show they belong or hit the road.
Was excited for some more content after the week we’ve had, then this. Elmo gif
a. Not a bash. Just revealing data. It's not really my fault that the numbers are so poor.
b. You wither learn from mistakes or you repeat them.... over and over and over and over and over....
c. Great song.
Seems like a vicious cycle of sucking forced us to take 3*s when the big fish weren’t willing to come to Texas… curious how the Bama and Georgia classes typically stratify compared to ours? They take some 3*s but obviously way fewer than most.
