Ketch's 10 Thoughts From The Weekend (Continuing my crusade!!!!!)
- Thread starter Ketchum
- Start date
I'm talking about the evaluation of all offers going back to 2002.
It's hardly just Charlie and Tom. That tells me you didn't even read it.
Me after reading the first 30% of this write up
Alabama doesn't hit on its 4 stars much more than Texas does. For instance, in the last decade, it's hit on about 15-percent of the 3 star OL it has taken.
None were drafted higher than the 6th round.
If you weren't willing to say yes very early, he was likely going to move on from you unless you were incredibly good.
Ketch why do you think Baylor , Oklahoma St , TCu and K-state get 3 stars to hit at such a higher rate. Is it evaluation or development that’s better than Texas
Also I think other than the super blues Texas high school players are the most overrated of any of the big football states.
Also I think other than the super blues Texas high school players are the most overrated of any of the big football states.
Not necessarily. With exceptions for bad character guys and poor students, every coaching staff will generally signs as many 5 stars as they can, and then as many 4 stars as they can, and then as many 3 stars as they can. Just because we signed some 3 stars doesn’t mean that our coaching staff made poor assessments. It might mean they couldn’t recruit the ones they really wanted or develop players very well.
development, development and development.
Their lowly three stars aren't much different than the low four and mid four stars, but they win the battle of fine margins.
If you're developing three stars at four star rates, you're sneaking a couple of extra NFL players per year into your numbers. Over four years, that's eight guys, That is not insignificant.
If 15.2% of high three-star DTs from Texas from 2004-2017 were drafted by NFL teams, you need an extra guy to get that number above that rate. You can't afford to be two player away from the average.
You have to do it with every tier
Does that make sense?
I think it’s recruiting players for a specific system and they thrive in that system….we have been taking dudes from 3 man fronts to 4 man fronts and back to a 3 man. We have been playing a lot of players out of position based on need. You can sign three stars, maximize the talent they have and that’s a part of development, Mitchell is not a 3 star talent imo, this crusade against three stars is tiresome at this point though.
It's as simple as their developmental programs have performed much better, which ensures they aren't on the wrong side of the averages. Their 1 in 8s are hitting at 1 in 5 type levels and UT's 1 in 5s are hitting at 1 in 7 margins.
Fine margins, my man, fine margins.
Let me show you what Baylor did last year. They had almost as many 3 stars drafted in one NFL draft class as Texas has since 2008.
They didn't hit on every three star. They just developed them at marginally higher rates than the national average, while Texas is woefully behind.
You've got people saying things such as the NFL Draft doesn't matter because Baylor won the Big 12 without realizing that Baylor had a half-dozen kids drafted in 2022 when the math says it should have 2.
They didn't hit on every three star. They just developed them at marginally higher rates than the national average, while Texas is woefully behind.
You've got people saying things such as the NFL Draft doesn't matter because Baylor won the Big 12 without realizing that Baylor had a half-dozen kids drafted in 2022 when the math says it should have 2.
I read this as a glaring indictment of the shitty coaching that has existed here, especially the last 10-12 years. Missing on more 3 stars when Mack was landing top 3 classes from 2000-2010 is expected as the overall talent pool in the program was elevated, so there naturally were going to be those that couldn’t see the field and break thru. From 2011-2021 that sure as hell wasn’t the case from a program talent perspective. We didn’t have 5 star coaching and development of player talent, period.
They also go through more up and down cycles, because that fine margin talent has to mature over a couple years. The biggest reason Texas is where it’s at right now, is bad evaluation, bad scheme fit, and zero consistency within the program. Mitchell looks better than Coburn did at the same stage imo and although competition varies, the traits of both players tells the story. Goosby has the chance to be a true LT which this program has been lacking.
I definitely agree on the pain of low recruit success rates. If you rely more on the portal, though, what do you do if you can’t convince portal transfers to join your team? We’ve been having that problem with defensive players.
Fair, but half of the data was comprised of players recruited during the glory days of Mack.
But, yeah, the two guys that followed him did not help.
The development is poor. You're forgetting about that. It's why UT's success rate isn't at the national average.
Lower the standards ever so slightly on who you are offering, the same way you do in recruiting of high school players.
There were definitely a ton of players that would have upgraded this roster that the coaches didn't offer. This staff was very picky in the Portal and still came away with 7 dudes.
Good question, though. A critical one, actually.
Would 20 other programs have taken the kid if he had chosen one of them rather than Texas today? They would have in a second. One of the kids that I identified and that no one else wanted at the time is on a scholarship at Newk's Academy as I type this.
Brian Boland (4 National Titles at Virginia) who is now in Little Rock working with a friend of mine just asked the kids father if he could coach him when he returns home as I am in Arizona, GA and SC and cannot give him the time he needs without him moving in with us. No one wanted that kid because they couldn't see what he was capable of. Development matters a lot.
Texas has had decent talent. I don't pretend it was Alabama level talent but the real issue facing Texas was under development and weakness at the QB position relative to OU other than Sam in the last several years. Certainly, Texas could have been better in every area, but they typically lost several games that were very winnable games during that time span. The statistics you continually align to are telling with professional success and certainly demonstrate/ reveal advantages that the best of the best have over other programs.
That being said Texas finished top 5 last year and should do so again this year and has had very good results in the portal and should in year 2 play a hell of a lot better than they did. They are beginning to stack talent and with better results can continue to market and stack more talent.
I develop kids for a living, and I tell you this, Brian Boland would not of wanted this kid when I first took over his development but after me getting him to Newk's and now receiving several collegiate offers he does. And the kids Texas is getting now are a hell of a lot more talented than the kid I got a hold of.
I believe these guys are developers and what happened on that bus, and it should of happened tells you they don't like losing. This is the best group of coaches Texas has had in a long time. Lets let them do their thing and Ketch one more thing how about round of applause for coaches with several National Titles to their credit who took the road less traveled and said to everyone across the country we can do it a Texas too regardless of where they are currently. That took guts and I would rather be around coaches like that any day of the week..
Those other 20 schools need to start being just as smart as I'm suggesting Texas needs to get.
Also, you believe these guys are developers, but outside of Sark, there's a very limited sample size of data around that opinion and not all of it supports your position.
Not being argumentative here Ketch -
Alabama certainly has had terrific players during Sabans run but I would bet money that those coaches made them even better and created schemes etc. that provided additional advantages over competition. I hear what you are saying but like the individual that said what if they can't get those portal players (on the defensive line particularly) then what?
A talented kid (who I believe is only 16 as we discuss this) with a big/ huge upside if directed/ developed properly is far better than 2 older more experienced portal players that never materialize. I wish we had gotten the TCU defensive end but we didn't.
What we did get is a kid that gave us a presence in a state we haven't had much of a presence in and we are getting kids in Mississippi and Louisiana and we haven't done much of that in a while either. That is directly attributable to these coaches, and they should get credit for it.
I’m not forgetting it at all but it’s hard to develop players when you have zero consistency in the program and scheme is constantly changing. If the staffs at Baylor, TCU, etc are so much better at developing 3 star talent because they have to, then Herman’s original staff should’ve had better results, same goes for Charlie especially coming from schools that also had to develop 3 star talent.
Probably would have changed out Estranged and Rocket Queen for Don't Cry and You Could Be Mine but really it's not that big of a deal. So many good songs there are bound to be a few discrepancies between lists
The work is never done. the quest to inform continues!
Great work, as usual! Point #5 is the
I do not hate three-star prospects.
Before I go any further, I feel like I should stress this.
No three-star high school football prospect ever took away any of my ex-girlfriends that I'm aware of. Or took my lunch money. Or bullied me on a basketball court.
None of this is personal.
I just don't think a program with significant aspirations as a major college football program should be making significant investments in them in the age of the college football portal.
Of course, it's not an opinion that most college football coaches would likely agree with and that includes the entire Texas Longhorns coaching staff. Yet, I'm not going to back down from this particular hot take, which feels like less of a hot take and more like common sense from my perspective. In the coming paragraphs, I'm going to try and pull you to my way of thinking.
Before I hit you over the head with math, I'm going to begin with a little common sense. Two of the biggest issues facing the three-star prospect at a program like Texas are time and patience. Neither the prospect nor the program typically have enough of either.
More times than not, the average college football prospect needs two or three years to develop before he begins to scratch the surface of becoming a plus-player at a major program (if it ever happens). If you happen to find a player that is comfortable with a three-year window of development, that player has to hope that he doesn't get recruited over in the process.
Take the three different three-star offensive linemen in the Class of 2020 for the Longhorns - Andrej Karic, Jaylen Garth and Logan Parr. None of the three have been in the program for three seasons yet, but when those players reach their third seasons of the program, they'll be staring at the likes of Kelvin Banks, Devon Campbell, Neto Umeozulu and the rest of the 2022 offensive line class that will likely moved above them in the pecking order as younger players.
The reality at a program like Texas is that a player usually starts to contribute in his first or second season in the program or he gets recruited over or bypassed by someone from the portal. Almost by definition, most three-star prospects aren't ready to contribute at high levels in their first couple of seasons.
See the rub?
Let's take a look at some recent history in the Texas program.
Of the 7 three- and two-star (non-kicking) prospects that the Longhorns signed in 2018, the best of the lot is probably Moro Ojomo. The only other contributor is Christian Jones. Everyone else is gone.
Of the 10 three-star players in the 2019 recruiting class, only Roschon Johnson and T'Vondre Sweat remain in the program. Everyone else is gone.
Of the 9 three-star players from the 2020 class, only Jaylan Ford and Jahdae Barron are sure contributors on the 2022 team.
It's not that three stars never hit. It's that you have to sort through a lot of misses to get to them. During that three-year window, a major college program can't have aspirations for the very top and only come away with five pretty good players out of a 26-player pile of players. That's a 20-percent return on the program's investment and it includes two back-up defensive tackles, a back-up running back, a starting cornerback and a starting inside linebacker that the staff has been trying all-off-season to upgrade on.
Johnson and Barron look like players that will play in the NFL from my vantage point, but getting a 7.7% return on high-level players just isn't good enough. Typically, hitting on the average three-star prospect is a 1 in 10 proposition.
It's like going to the county fair and shooting hoops on a 12-foot goal with a crooked rim, only to win a $20 stuffed panda after you've spent $40.
That's not winning as much as it's not walking away with a total disaster.
No. 2 - Let's look under the burnt orange hood ...
As we work our way through this conversation, let's take a look at the long-term success of the Longhorns with regards to taking three-star prospects by looking at every three-star that Texas has ever signed by position.
Quarterbacks
2005 Colt McCoy, 2006 Sherrod Harris, 2007 G.J. Kinne, 2019 Case McCoy, 2011 David Ash, 2019 Roschon Johnson and 2021 Charles Wright
Notes: What an eclectic little group of players. Technically, only one of the players that has completed his eligibility hit for the Longhorns, but that hit has his number retired. Meanwhile, the second McCoy on this list had some big wins as a starter and it's impossible to know what might have happened with Ash had concussions not ended his career.
NFL Draft rate: 20%
Two things I'd say about this group ...
a. By the time we get to the end of this discussion, I'm going to make a mini-exemption for quarterbacks.
b. I personally rated McCoy and Ash as four stars. Just wanted to say that for the record.
Running backs
2002 Clint Haney, 2005 Jerrell Wilkerson, 2005 Michael Houston, 2006 Antwan Cobb, 2008 Brock Fitzhenry, 2008 Tre Newton, 2008 Ryan Roberson, 2011 Joe Bergeron, 2014 Kevin Shorter, 2016 Tristian Houston and 2017 Daniel Young.
Notes: Technically, D'Onta Foreman was ranked as an athlete, which means that either Newton or Bergeron are the best players out of this group. That tells a story.
NFL Draft rate: 0%
Wide Receivers
2002 Dustin Miksch, 2004 Chris Ogbonnaya, 2004 Nate Jones, 2006 John Marshall, 2011 Miles Onyegbule, 2012 Marcus Johnson, 2013 Montrel Meander, 2014 Dorian Leonard, 2014 Garrett Gray, 2014 Roderick Bernard, 2015 Gilbert Johnson, 2015 Ryan Newsome, 2015 Davion Curtis, 2016 Reggie Hemphill-Mapps, 2017 Jordan Pouncey, 2019 Kennedy Lewis, 2020 Dajon Harrison, 2021 Casey Cain, 2021 Keithron Lee and 2022 Savion Redd
Notes: Going all the way back to Marcus Johnson in 2012, the Longhorns are 0 for their last 12 (not counting Cain or Redd). The three best players from this group are Johnson (who, I ironically ranked as a four-star), Jones and Ogbonnaya - none of whom where all-conference level players as starters, even if all three played on Sundays (one at running back).
NFL Draft rate: 0%
Tight ends
2003 Steve Hogan, 2004 Peter Ullman, 2006 Britt Mitchell, 2006 Greg Smith, 2007 Ahmard Howard, 2007 Ian Harris, 2009 Trey Graham, 2009 Barrett Matthews, 2013 Geoff Swaim, 2014 Blake Whiteley, 2016 Peyton Aucoin, 2017 Cade Brewer, 2019 Jared Wiley and 2021 Juan Davis.
Notes: Out of the 13 players that have completed their eligibility, only Swaim (7th round by the Dallas Cowboys) ever played on Sundays and you could make a strong case that Brewer is the second-best contributor from this group.
NFL Draft rate: 7.7%
Offensive Linemen
2002 Brett Valdez, 2003 Kyle Thornton, 2003 Dallas Griffin, 2004 Adam Ulatoski, 2005 Charlie Tanner, 2005 Chris Hall, 2006 Roy Watts, 2006 Steve Moore, 2008 Luke Poehlmann, 2009 Paden Kelley, 2011 Taylor Doyle, 2011 Marcus Hutchins, 2013 Desmond Harrison, 2014 Elijah Rodriguez, 2014 Terrell Cuney, 2014 Alex Anderson, 2015 Garrett Thomas, 2015 Ronnie Major, 2015 Tristan Nickelson, 2016 Brandon Hodges, 2016 Tope Imade, 2016 Zach Shackelford, 2017 Sam Cosmi, 2017 Derek Kerstetter, 2018 Reese Moore, 2018 Rafiti Ghirmai, 2019 Willie Tyler, 2020 Andrej Karic, 2020 Jaylen Garth, 2020 Logan Parr, 2021 Hayden Conner, 2022 Lance St. Louis and 2022 Connor Robertson
Notes: Out of the 27 players that have completed their eligibility, only Cosmi was drafted. Harrison joins him as a guy that played on Sundays, but he literally never started a game for the Longhorns, no matter how much @Alex Dunlap tried to will it to happen. Other than that, most of the contributors on the list were never really more than pretty good at best, with the likely exception of Ulatoski. This is going to sound harsh, but I'd make the case that one of the problems Texas football has had in the last 15 years is that too many of those players ended up playing a lot of snaps for the program.
NFL Draft rate: 3.7%
No. 3 - Can I just take a brief moment to say ...
OF THE 73 OFFENSIVE PROSPECTS THAT TEXAS HAS TAKEN SINCE 2002, ONLY THREE WERE DRAFTED BY NFL TEAMS!!!!!!!!
No. 4 - Continuing with the Defense ...
Defensive Tackles
2003 Thomas Marshall, 2004 Derek Lokey, 2006 Ben Alexander, 2007 Tyrell Higgins, 2007 Michael Wilcoxon, 2010 Deaires Cotton, 2012 Brandon Moore, 2012 Alex Norman, 2014 Chris Nelson, 2014 Poona Ford, 2015 Du'Vonta Lampkin, 2016 Jordan Elliott, 2016 Gerald Wilbon, 2016 Marcel Southall, 2018 Christian Jones, 2018 Moro Ojomo, 2021 Byron Murphy, 2022 Aaron Bryant and 2022 Kris Ross
Notes: This is actually a group that performs very well, as Lokey, Ford and Elliott all played on Sundays. Of course, Ford was legitimately a great player for the Longhorns. Ironically, the only player (Elliott) from the group of the 14 that have completed their eligibility and was actually drafted only played in six games for the Longhorns before transferring. Getting at least 20+ of a contributor rate isn't a terrible number, especially when Ojomo and Murphy will end up boosting the numbers above 30%.
NFL Draft rate: 7.1%
Defensive Ends
2006 Brian Ellis, 2007 Sam Acho, 2009 Dominique Jones, 2009 Kyle Kriegel, 2012 Caleb Bluiett, 2012 Byrce Cotrell, 2014 Jake McMillon, 2015 Quincy Vasser, 2016 Malcolm Roach, 2016 Andrew Fitzgerald, 2017 Max Cummins, 2017 Jamari Chisholm, 2017 Taquan Graham, 2018 Daniel Carson, 2018 Mike Williams, 2019 T'Vondre Sweat, 2019 Peter Mpagi, 2019 Sawyer Gorham-Welch, 2021 David Abiara, 2021 Barryn Sorrell and 2021 Jordan Thomas,
Notes: Acho is obviously a big hit. Beyond him, Roach and Graham were hits of lesser extent, but still proved to be NFL-level talents. The problem is that almost all of the other players that have finished their eligibility turned out to be complete dudes. Yet, if Sweat has a big year in 2022 and Sorrell pans out as people inside the program hope, we could be talking about a position group with a near 25-percent success rate as quality performers.
NFL Draft rate: 12.5%
Linebackers
2002 Brian Robison, 2002 Marcus Myers, 2003 Scott Derry, 2004 Jeremy Campbell, 2004 Rashad Bobino, 2004 Nic Redwine, 2005 Roderrick Muckelroy, 2008 Dustin Earnest, 2008 Emmanuel Acho, 2009 Patrick Nkwopara, 2012 Dalton Santos, 2012 Alex De La Torre, 2013 Naashon Hughes, 2014 Cameron Hampton, 2014 Andrew Beck, 2015 Cameron Townsend, 2015 Breckyn Hager, 2018 Byron Hobbs, 2019 Caleb Johnson, 2019 Marcus Tillman, 2019 Juwan Mitchell, 2020 Jaylan Ford, 2021 Morice Blackwell, 2021 Terrence Cooks, 2022 Derrick Brown and 2022 Trevell Johnson
Notes: Robison, Muckelroy and Acho were all definite hits, but I'd argue that the program has missed on its last 12, with all due respect to Beck and Hager, who proved to be solid players at other positions. It's kind of a tricky group of players to talk about, but this is an undeniable fact - Texas hasn't struck gold (even remotely) at the actual linebacker position for its defense since the pre-Will Muschamp days.
NFL Draft rate: 13.6%
Defensive Backs
2002 Matthew Melton, 2003 Brandon Foster, 2004 Ryan Palmer, 2006 James Henry, 2008 Blake Gideon, 2010 Adrian White, 2011 Leroy Scott, 2012 Kevin Vaccaro, 2013 Erik Huhn, 2014 Jermaine Roberts, 2014 John Bonney, 2014 Jason Hall, 2015 PJ Locke, 2016 Eric Cuffee, 2016 Chris Brown, 2017 Kobe Boyce and 2019 Marquise Caldwell
Notes: There are a few decent college players in that group, including Foster, Palmer, Gideon and Brown, but not a single impact player ever emerged from a group of 17 players. You'd probably say that Gideon was the best of that group and only Brown warrants being in a conversation with him in the last 15 years.
NFL Draft rate: 0.0%
Athletes
2003 Eric Foreman, 2008 Antoine Hicks, 2012 Jalen Overstreet, 2012 Adrian Colbert, 2013 Chevoski Collins, 2014 D'Onta Foreman, 2015 Deandre McNeal, 2016 Lil'Jordan Humphrey, 2016 Donovan Duvernay, 2020 Kelvontay Dixon, 2020 Jaden Hullaby and 2022 Xavian Brice
Notes: It's interesting that two of the biggest hits of the last decade for the Longhorns on the offensive side of the ball, were listed as "athletes" coming out of high school. Colbert ended up being an NFL player, but only emerged into that kind of player after transferring from the program. Still, not too shabby, given the sample size.
NFL Draft rate: 18.2%
No. 5 - A few final thoughts and some rules ...
... If we mix in all of the athletes into the correct side of the ball, it means that four of the last 81 three-star players that the Longhorns have signed on the offensive side of the ball have eventually been drafted by NFL teams. That's 4.9%.
... The number of NFL drafted players from the defensive side of the ball stands at six in 75 over the last two decades. That's 8%.
... Of the 10 three-star players that have been drafted out of the 153 prospects who have completed their eligibility, the following were recruited post 2008 ... Geoff Swaim, Sam Cosmi, Jordan Elliott, Taquan Graham, Adrian Colbert and D'Onte Foreman. That's six players and two of them ended up transferring from Texas. Only two were All-Big 12 players.
... No three-star player ever recruited by Texas in the modern era of the Rivals rankings (2002) has ever been selected as a first-round pick.
You can throw in an occasional Marcus Johnson, Lil'Jordan Humphrey or Poona Ford, but the bottom line on these numbers remains poor.
Moving forward, the best thing the Texas program can do is let other programs develop these 1 in 10s and then poach them in the transfer portal.
The only exceptions that should be made are the following:
a. An occasional quarterback from the state of Texas. We'll call it the Colt McCoy rule.
b. An occasional BIG defensive lineman. No tweeners. They all need to be either a defensive tackle or a defensive end that is at least 6-4, 240 pounds.
c. Raw two-way athletes that can play on either side of the ball.
d. Kickers or Punters.
That's it.
Otherwise, that scholarship needs to be saved for a player coming through the Portal with more pure upside (think Agiye Hall) or proven credentials (think Isaiah Neyor).
No. 6 - Historical trends: In-State Defensive Tackles ...
A week ago in this column, we took a look at defensive ends from the Lone Star State and with the commitment of Sydir Mitchell, I thought it might be a good time to look at the defensive tackles that the state produces.
If some of you want the cliffs on this section without having to sort through the names, here are the key points.
a. 75% of five-star players from Texas from 2002-2017 were drafted by NFL teams and 87.5% played on Sundays.
b. 33.3% of high four-star players from Texas from 2004-2017 were drafted by NFL teams.
c. 0.0% of mid four-star players from Texas from 2004-2017 were drafted by NFL teams.
d. 11.8% of low four-star players from Texas from 2004-2017 were drafted by NFL teams.
e. 15.2% of high three-star players from Texas from 2004-2017 were drafted by NFL teams.
Here's how it all looks when you go under the hood of each rankings tier:
Let's look at the five-stars.
2002 - Rod Wright (Texas)
2004 - Frank Okam (Texas)
2005 - Demarcus Granger (Oklahoma)
2012 - Mario Edwards (Florida State)
2012 - Malcom Brown (Texas)
2013 - A'Shawn Robinson (Alabama)
2016 - Ed Oliver (Houston)
2017 - Marvin Wilson (Florida State)
Breakdown
* 6 of the 8 players (75.0%) were drafted by NFL teams and 7 of the 8 played on Sundays.
* 3 of the last 5 five-star defensive tackles since 2005 have been selected in the first round of the NFL Draft and another (Edwards) was selected in the second round.
Now let's look at the high four stars:
2005 - Roy Miller (Texas)
2007 - Andre Jones (Texas)
2008 - Jarvis Humphrey (Texas)
2009 - Jamarkus McFarland (Oklahoma)
2009 - Calvin Howell (Texas)
2015 - Daylon Mack (Texas A&M)
Breakdown
* 2 of the 6 players (33.0%) were drafted by NFL teams: Miller (3rd round) and Mack (5th round).
Mid Four Stars
2008 - Chancey Aghayere (LSU)
2010 - Ashton Dorsey (Texas)
2010 - Taylor Bible (Texas)
2013 - Justin Manning (Texas A&M)
2013 - Isaiah Golden (Texas A&M)
2013 - Kerrick Huggins (Oklahoma)
2014 - Deshawn Washington (Texas A&M)
2015 - Darrian Daniels (Oklahoma State)
Breakdown
* 0 of the 8 players (0.0%) were drafted by NFL teams.
Low Four Stars
2004 - Walter Thomas (Oklahoma State)
2005 - Vince Oghobaase (Duke)
2005 - Vincent Williams (Texas A&M)
2005 - Brandon Antwine (Florida)
2008 - Rod Davis (Texas A&M)
2008 - Kheeston Randall (Texas)
2010 - Eric Humphrey (Oklahoma)
2011 - Jordan Wade (Oklahoma)
2011 - Quincy Russell (Texas)
2011 - Desmond Jackson (Texas)
2011 - Marquis Anderson (Oklahoma)
2012 - Paul Boyette (Texas)
2013 - Hardreck Walker (Texas A&M)
2013 - Andrew Billings (Baylor)
2014 - Zaycoven Henderson (Texas A&M)
2016 - Chris Daniels (Texas)
2016 - Kendall Jones (Alabama)
Breakdown
* 2 of the 17 players (11.8%) were drafted by NFL teams.
No. 7 – BUY or SELL …
(Sell) Knowing that there's no real number that serves as a ceiling, I don't think we'll see guys get pushed out of the class, but it might mean that more guys from the program are "processed" in order to fit them all in next August.
(Buy) I hate watching football games that don't matter and far too often on college football weekends, we're limited to one or two games each week mattering. In my mind, cutting the dead weight and streamlining the sport is going to lead to a better product on our televisions each week. There's not a single team that will get left out of the super heavyweight conferences that I really care about.
(Sell) I can't buy that until I see some evidence. I know the smart thing for me to say as the owner of this site is to tell you yes, but I wouldn't be able to look myself in the mirror if I started to just tell you what you wanted to hear. Hell, this entire column this week is full of stuff I'm not sure any of you want to hear or see.
(Sell) Come on...
(Buy) That's an easy one for me because I definitely think Johntay Cook is going to get his fifth star and Connor Stroh will get bumped up to four stars.
(Sell) Eight will likely do.
(Buy) There's no reason to think that Texas' ability to recruit California is going to decrease in the coming years.
(Sell) I don't think the game is going to be that close.
(Sell) I want you to know that you get an A+ for creativity and consideration for the question that you've asked, but generally speaking, alumni wealth isn't a major consideration for most kids making decisions.
(Buy) I think he wins the Heisman if all of that happens.
(Sell) It would likely be really close and it would likely mean that this season is a disaster on the field and that Sarkisian is in real trouble. I'm still selling, but it would be damn close. The pitchforks would definitely come out.
(Buy) This is still a defense that lacks proven playmakers. That hasn't changed.
No. 8 - Scattershooting on the sports weekend ...
... The NBA is freaking never boring. Never.
... I'm not sure where I want Kevin Durant to be traded, but please don't let it be the Boston Celtics. I can live with anything else, but I can't live with that.
... The Lakers trading for Kyrie Irving when the rest of the league won't touch him is pretty much the most Lakers thing ever. I can't believe LeBron James is going to trust the rest of his "prime" years with Irving. What could possibly go wrong?
... Zion is just stealing money at this point. Hundreds of millions.
... P.J. Tucker is a Sixer. That makes me really happy.
... It's almost time for me to be a fantasy football commish. I vow to be a better commish this season. I'm tired of @Anwar Richardson suggesting I hand control over to someone else.
... I'm thinking I'm going to take my kids to an Astros game this month.
... For the Texas hard-ball fans out there. This will make you smile.
... Mo Salah! Mo Salah! Running down the Wing! Consider me very surprised that FSG gave Salah the money he wanted in order to get him to agree to an extension. Consider me a happy boy.
... I may or may not have cackled this weekend when the Cristiano Ronaldo news came out of Manchester on Saturday ...
... I have a hunch Wimbledon is going to be really good this week.
No. 9 - The List: Top 10 Guns N Roses songs ...
Never in a million years would I have believed 25 years ago that Guns N Roses would be touring in 2022, but somehow we've made it.
And Carrie Underwood is performing with them.
It seems like as good of a reason as any to do a Top 10 list. I'm sure there will be zero disagreement.
10. Live and Let Die
9. Mr. Brownstone
8. Rocket Queen
7. Estranged
6. Patience
5. Knockin on Heaven's Door
4. Paradise City
3. Sweet Child O' Mine
2. November Rain
1. Welcome to the Jungle
No. 10 - And Finally ...
Dogs, man. Dogs.
Ketch, great work, as usual. I enjoyed the read! Point #5 can’t be understated. I have a feeling this board is going to be discussing this point a lot if the season is a bust. If the season is a success…to hell with it, TEXAS FIGHT!
I do not hate three-star prospects.
Before I go any further, I feel like I should stress this.
No three-star high school football prospect ever took away any of my ex-girlfriends that I'm aware of. Or took my lunch money. Or bullied me on a basketball court.
None of this is personal.
I just don't think a program with significant aspirations as a major college football program should be making significant investments in them in the age of the college football portal.
Of course, it's not an opinion that most college football coaches would likely agree with and that includes the entire Texas Longhorns coaching staff. Yet, I'm not going to back down from this particular hot take, which feels like less of a hot take and more like common sense from my perspective. In the coming paragraphs, I'm going to try and pull you to my way of thinking.
Before I hit you over the head with math, I'm going to begin with a little common sense. Two of the biggest issues facing the three-star prospect at a program like Texas are time and patience. Neither the prospect nor the program typically have enough of either.
More times than not, the average college football prospect needs two or three years to develop before he begins to scratch the surface of becoming a plus-player at a major program (if it ever happens). If you happen to find a player that is comfortable with a three-year window of development, that player has to hope that he doesn't get recruited over in the process.
Take the three different three-star offensive linemen in the Class of 2020 for the Longhorns - Andrej Karic, Jaylen Garth and Logan Parr. None of the three have been in the program for three seasons yet, but when those players reach their third seasons of the program, they'll be staring at the likes of Kelvin Banks, Devon Campbell, Neto Umeozulu and the rest of the 2022 offensive line class that will likely moved above them in the pecking order as younger players.
The reality at a program like Texas is that a player usually starts to contribute in his first or second season in the program or he gets recruited over or bypassed by someone from the portal. Almost by definition, most three-star prospects aren't ready to contribute at high levels in their first couple of seasons.
See the rub?
Let's take a look at some recent history in the Texas program.
Of the 7 three- and two-star (non-kicking) prospects that the Longhorns signed in 2018, the best of the lot is probably Moro Ojomo. The only other contributor is Christian Jones. Everyone else is gone.
Of the 10 three-star players in the 2019 recruiting class, only Roschon Johnson and T'Vondre Sweat remain in the program. Everyone else is gone.
Of the 9 three-star players from the 2020 class, only Jaylan Ford and Jahdae Barron are sure contributors on the 2022 team.
It's not that three stars never hit. It's that you have to sort through a lot of misses to get to them. During that three-year window, a major college program can't have aspirations for the very top and only come away with five pretty good players out of a 26-player pile of players. That's a 20-percent return on the program's investment and it includes two back-up defensive tackles, a back-up running back, a starting cornerback and a starting inside linebacker that the staff has been trying all-off-season to upgrade on.
Johnson and Barron look like players that will play in the NFL from my vantage point, but getting a 7.7% return on high-level players just isn't good enough. Typically, hitting on the average three-star prospect is a 1 in 10 proposition.
It's like going to the county fair and shooting hoops on a 12-foot goal with a crooked rim, only to win a $20 stuffed panda after you've spent $40.
That's not winning as much as it's not walking away with a total disaster.
No. 2 - Let's look under the burnt orange hood ...
As we work our way through this conversation, let's take a look at the long-term success of the Longhorns with regards to taking three-star prospects by looking at every three-star that Texas has ever signed by position.
Quarterbacks
2005 Colt McCoy, 2006 Sherrod Harris, 2007 G.J. Kinne, 2019 Case McCoy, 2011 David Ash, 2019 Roschon Johnson and 2021 Charles Wright
Notes: What an eclectic little group of players. Technically, only one of the players that has completed his eligibility hit for the Longhorns, but that hit has his number retired. Meanwhile, the second McCoy on this list had some big wins as a starter and it's impossible to know what might have happened with Ash had concussions not ended his career.
NFL Draft rate: 20%
Two things I'd say about this group ...
a. By the time we get to the end of this discussion, I'm going to make a mini-exemption for quarterbacks.
b. I personally rated McCoy and Ash as four stars. Just wanted to say that for the record.
Running backs
2002 Clint Haney, 2005 Jerrell Wilkerson, 2005 Michael Houston, 2006 Antwan Cobb, 2008 Brock Fitzhenry, 2008 Tre Newton, 2008 Ryan Roberson, 2011 Joe Bergeron, 2014 Kevin Shorter, 2016 Tristian Houston and 2017 Daniel Young.
Notes: Technically, D'Onta Foreman was ranked as an athlete, which means that either Newton or Bergeron are the best players out of this group. That tells a story.
NFL Draft rate: 0%
Wide Receivers
2002 Dustin Miksch, 2004 Chris Ogbonnaya, 2004 Nate Jones, 2006 John Marshall, 2011 Miles Onyegbule, 2012 Marcus Johnson, 2013 Montrel Meander, 2014 Dorian Leonard, 2014 Garrett Gray, 2014 Roderick Bernard, 2015 Gilbert Johnson, 2015 Ryan Newsome, 2015 Davion Curtis, 2016 Reggie Hemphill-Mapps, 2017 Jordan Pouncey, 2019 Kennedy Lewis, 2020 Dajon Harrison, 2021 Casey Cain, 2021 Keithron Lee and 2022 Savion Redd
Notes: Going all the way back to Marcus Johnson in 2012, the Longhorns are 0 for their last 12 (not counting Cain or Redd). The three best players from this group are Johnson (who, I ironically ranked as a four-star), Jones and Ogbonnaya - none of whom where all-conference level players as starters, even if all three played on Sundays (one at running back).
NFL Draft rate: 0%
Tight ends
2003 Steve Hogan, 2004 Peter Ullman, 2006 Britt Mitchell, 2006 Greg Smith, 2007 Ahmard Howard, 2007 Ian Harris, 2009 Trey Graham, 2009 Barrett Matthews, 2013 Geoff Swaim, 2014 Blake Whiteley, 2016 Peyton Aucoin, 2017 Cade Brewer, 2019 Jared Wiley and 2021 Juan Davis.
Notes: Out of the 13 players that have completed their eligibility, only Swaim (7th round by the Dallas Cowboys) ever played on Sundays and you could make a strong case that Brewer is the second-best contributor from this group.
NFL Draft rate: 7.7%
Offensive Linemen
2002 Brett Valdez, 2003 Kyle Thornton, 2003 Dallas Griffin, 2004 Adam Ulatoski, 2005 Charlie Tanner, 2005 Chris Hall, 2006 Roy Watts, 2006 Steve Moore, 2008 Luke Poehlmann, 2009 Paden Kelley, 2011 Taylor Doyle, 2011 Marcus Hutchins, 2013 Desmond Harrison, 2014 Elijah Rodriguez, 2014 Terrell Cuney, 2014 Alex Anderson, 2015 Garrett Thomas, 2015 Ronnie Major, 2015 Tristan Nickelson, 2016 Brandon Hodges, 2016 Tope Imade, 2016 Zach Shackelford, 2017 Sam Cosmi, 2017 Derek Kerstetter, 2018 Reese Moore, 2018 Rafiti Ghirmai, 2019 Willie Tyler, 2020 Andrej Karic, 2020 Jaylen Garth, 2020 Logan Parr, 2021 Hayden Conner, 2022 Lance St. Louis and 2022 Connor Robertson
Notes: Out of the 27 players that have completed their eligibility, only Cosmi was drafted. Harrison joins him as a guy that played on Sundays, but he literally never started a game for the Longhorns, no matter how much @Alex Dunlap tried to will it to happen. Other than that, most of the contributors on the list were never really more than pretty good at best, with the likely exception of Ulatoski. This is going to sound harsh, but I'd make the case that one of the problems Texas football has had in the last 15 years is that too many of those players ended up playing a lot of snaps for the program.
NFL Draft rate: 3.7%
No. 3 - Can I just take a brief moment to say ...
OF THE 73 OFFENSIVE PROSPECTS THAT TEXAS HAS TAKEN SINCE 2002, ONLY THREE WERE DRAFTED BY NFL TEAMS!!!!!!!!
No. 4 - Continuing with the Defense ...
Defensive Tackles
2003 Thomas Marshall, 2004 Derek Lokey, 2006 Ben Alexander, 2007 Tyrell Higgins, 2007 Michael Wilcoxon, 2010 Deaires Cotton, 2012 Brandon Moore, 2012 Alex Norman, 2014 Chris Nelson, 2014 Poona Ford, 2015 Du'Vonta Lampkin, 2016 Jordan Elliott, 2016 Gerald Wilbon, 2016 Marcel Southall, 2018 Christian Jones, 2018 Moro Ojomo, 2021 Byron Murphy, 2022 Aaron Bryant and 2022 Kris Ross
Notes: This is actually a group that performs very well, as Lokey, Ford and Elliott all played on Sundays. Of course, Ford was legitimately a great player for the Longhorns. Ironically, the only player (Elliott) from the group of the 14 that have completed their eligibility and was actually drafted only played in six games for the Longhorns before transferring. Getting at least 20+ of a contributor rate isn't a terrible number, especially when Ojomo and Murphy will end up boosting the numbers above 30%.
NFL Draft rate: 7.1%
Defensive Ends
2006 Brian Ellis, 2007 Sam Acho, 2009 Dominique Jones, 2009 Kyle Kriegel, 2012 Caleb Bluiett, 2012 Byrce Cotrell, 2014 Jake McMillon, 2015 Quincy Vasser, 2016 Malcolm Roach, 2016 Andrew Fitzgerald, 2017 Max Cummins, 2017 Jamari Chisholm, 2017 Taquan Graham, 2018 Daniel Carson, 2018 Mike Williams, 2019 T'Vondre Sweat, 2019 Peter Mpagi, 2019 Sawyer Gorham-Welch, 2021 David Abiara, 2021 Barryn Sorrell and 2021 Jordan Thomas,
Notes: Acho is obviously a big hit. Beyond him, Roach and Graham were hits of lesser extent, but still proved to be NFL-level talents. The problem is that almost all of the other players that have finished their eligibility turned out to be complete dudes. Yet, if Sweat has a big year in 2022 and Sorrell pans out as people inside the program hope, we could be talking about a position group with a near 25-percent success rate as quality performers.
NFL Draft rate: 12.5%
Linebackers
2002 Brian Robison, 2002 Marcus Myers, 2003 Scott Derry, 2004 Jeremy Campbell, 2004 Rashad Bobino, 2004 Nic Redwine, 2005 Roderrick Muckelroy, 2008 Dustin Earnest, 2008 Emmanuel Acho, 2009 Patrick Nkwopara, 2012 Dalton Santos, 2012 Alex De La Torre, 2013 Naashon Hughes, 2014 Cameron Hampton, 2014 Andrew Beck, 2015 Cameron Townsend, 2015 Breckyn Hager, 2018 Byron Hobbs, 2019 Caleb Johnson, 2019 Marcus Tillman, 2019 Juwan Mitchell, 2020 Jaylan Ford, 2021 Morice Blackwell, 2021 Terrence Cooks, 2022 Derrick Brown and 2022 Trevell Johnson
Notes: Robison, Muckelroy and Acho were all definite hits, but I'd argue that the program has missed on its last 12, with all due respect to Beck and Hager, who proved to be solid players at other positions. It's kind of a tricky group of players to talk about, but this is an undeniable fact - Texas hasn't struck gold (even remotely) at the actual linebacker position for its defense since the pre-Will Muschamp days.
NFL Draft rate: 13.6%
Defensive Backs
2002 Matthew Melton, 2003 Brandon Foster, 2004 Ryan Palmer, 2006 James Henry, 2008 Blake Gideon, 2010 Adrian White, 2011 Leroy Scott, 2012 Kevin Vaccaro, 2013 Erik Huhn, 2014 Jermaine Roberts, 2014 John Bonney, 2014 Jason Hall, 2015 PJ Locke, 2016 Eric Cuffee, 2016 Chris Brown, 2017 Kobe Boyce and 2019 Marquise Caldwell
Notes: There are a few decent college players in that group, including Foster, Palmer, Gideon and Brown, but not a single impact player ever emerged from a group of 17 players. You'd probably say that Gideon was the best of that group and only Brown warrants being in a conversation with him in the last 15 years.
NFL Draft rate: 0.0%
Athletes
2003 Eric Foreman, 2008 Antoine Hicks, 2012 Jalen Overstreet, 2012 Adrian Colbert, 2013 Chevoski Collins, 2014 D'Onta Foreman, 2015 Deandre McNeal, 2016 Lil'Jordan Humphrey, 2016 Donovan Duvernay, 2020 Kelvontay Dixon, 2020 Jaden Hullaby and 2022 Xavian Brice
Notes: It's interesting that two of the biggest hits of the last decade for the Longhorns on the offensive side of the ball, were listed as "athletes" coming out of high school. Colbert ended up being an NFL player, but only emerged into that kind of player after transferring from the program. Still, not too shabby, given the sample size.
NFL Draft rate: 18.2%
No. 5 - A few final thoughts and some rules ...
... If we mix in all of the athletes into the correct side of the ball, it means that four of the last 81 three-star players that the Longhorns have signed on the offensive side of the ball have eventually been drafted by NFL teams. That's 4.9%.
... The number of NFL drafted players from the defensive side of the ball stands at six in 75 over the last two decades. That's 8%.
... Of the 10 three-star players that have been drafted out of the 153 prospects who have completed their eligibility, the following were recruited post 2008 ... Geoff Swaim, Sam Cosmi, Jordan Elliott, Taquan Graham, Adrian Colbert and D'Onte Foreman. That's six players and two of them ended up transferring from Texas. Only two were All-Big 12 players.
... No three-star player ever recruited by Texas in the modern era of the Rivals rankings (2002) has ever been selected as a first-round pick.
You can throw in an occasional Marcus Johnson, Lil'Jordan Humphrey or Poona Ford, but the bottom line on these numbers remains poor.
Moving forward, the best thing the Texas program can do is let other programs develop these 1 in 10s and then poach them in the transfer portal.
The only exceptions that should be made are the following:
a. An occasional quarterback from the state of Texas. We'll call it the Colt McCoy rule.
b. An occasional BIG defensive lineman. No tweeners. They all need to be either a defensive tackle or a defensive end that is at least 6-4, 240 pounds.
c. Raw two-way athletes that can play on either side of the ball.
d. Kickers or Punters.
That's it.
Otherwise, that scholarship needs to be saved for a player coming through the Portal with more pure upside (think Agiye Hall) or proven credentials (think Isaiah Neyor).
No. 6 - Historical trends: In-State Defensive Tackles ...
A week ago in this column, we took a look at defensive ends from the Lone Star State and with the commitment of Sydir Mitchell, I thought it might be a good time to look at the defensive tackles that the state produces.
If some of you want the cliffs on this section without having to sort through the names, here are the key points.
a. 75% of five-star players from Texas from 2002-2017 were drafted by NFL teams and 87.5% played on Sundays.
b. 33.3% of high four-star players from Texas from 2004-2017 were drafted by NFL teams.
c. 0.0% of mid four-star players from Texas from 2004-2017 were drafted by NFL teams.
d. 11.8% of low four-star players from Texas from 2004-2017 were drafted by NFL teams.
e. 15.2% of high three-star players from Texas from 2004-2017 were drafted by NFL teams.
Here's how it all looks when you go under the hood of each rankings tier:
Let's look at the five-stars.
2002 - Rod Wright (Texas)
2004 - Frank Okam (Texas)
2005 - Demarcus Granger (Oklahoma)
2012 - Mario Edwards (Florida State)
2012 - Malcom Brown (Texas)
2013 - A'Shawn Robinson (Alabama)
2016 - Ed Oliver (Houston)
2017 - Marvin Wilson (Florida State)
Breakdown
* 6 of the 8 players (75.0%) were drafted by NFL teams and 7 of the 8 played on Sundays.
* 3 of the last 5 five-star defensive tackles since 2005 have been selected in the first round of the NFL Draft and another (Edwards) was selected in the second round.
Now let's look at the high four stars:
2005 - Roy Miller (Texas)
2007 - Andre Jones (Texas)
2008 - Jarvis Humphrey (Texas)
2009 - Jamarkus McFarland (Oklahoma)
2009 - Calvin Howell (Texas)
2015 - Daylon Mack (Texas A&M)
Breakdown
* 2 of the 6 players (33.0%) were drafted by NFL teams: Miller (3rd round) and Mack (5th round).
Mid Four Stars
2008 - Chancey Aghayere (LSU)
2010 - Ashton Dorsey (Texas)
2010 - Taylor Bible (Texas)
2013 - Justin Manning (Texas A&M)
2013 - Isaiah Golden (Texas A&M)
2013 - Kerrick Huggins (Oklahoma)
2014 - Deshawn Washington (Texas A&M)
2015 - Darrian Daniels (Oklahoma State)
Breakdown
* 0 of the 8 players (0.0%) were drafted by NFL teams.
Low Four Stars
2004 - Walter Thomas (Oklahoma State)
2005 - Vince Oghobaase (Duke)
2005 - Vincent Williams (Texas A&M)
2005 - Brandon Antwine (Florida)
2008 - Rod Davis (Texas A&M)
2008 - Kheeston Randall (Texas)
2010 - Eric Humphrey (Oklahoma)
2011 - Jordan Wade (Oklahoma)
2011 - Quincy Russell (Texas)
2011 - Desmond Jackson (Texas)
2011 - Marquis Anderson (Oklahoma)
2012 - Paul Boyette (Texas)
2013 - Hardreck Walker (Texas A&M)
2013 - Andrew Billings (Baylor)
2014 - Zaycoven Henderson (Texas A&M)
2016 - Chris Daniels (Texas)
2016 - Kendall Jones (Alabama)
Breakdown
* 2 of the 17 players (11.8%) were drafted by NFL teams.
No. 7 – BUY or SELL …
(Sell) Knowing that there's no real number that serves as a ceiling, I don't think we'll see guys get pushed out of the class, but it might mean that more guys from the program are "processed" in order to fit them all in next August.
(Buy) I hate watching football games that don't matter and far too often on college football weekends, we're limited to one or two games each week mattering. In my mind, cutting the dead weight and streamlining the sport is going to lead to a better product on our televisions each week. There's not a single team that will get left out of the super heavyweight conferences that I really care about.
(Sell) I can't buy that until I see some evidence. I know the smart thing for me to say as the owner of this site is to tell you yes, but I wouldn't be able to look myself in the mirror if I started to just tell you what you wanted to hear. Hell, this entire column this week is full of stuff I'm not sure any of you want to hear or see.
(Sell) Come on...
(Buy) That's an easy one for me because I definitely think Johntay Cook is going to get his fifth star and Connor Stroh will get bumped up to four stars.
(Sell) Eight will likely do.
(Buy) There's no reason to think that Texas' ability to recruit California is going to decrease in the coming years.
(Sell) I don't think the game is going to be that close.
(Sell) I want you to know that you get an A+ for creativity and consideration for the question that you've asked, but generally speaking, alumni wealth isn't a major consideration for most kids making decisions.
(Buy) I think he wins the Heisman if all of that happens.
(Sell) It would likely be really close and it would likely mean that this season is a disaster on the field and that Sarkisian is in real trouble. I'm still selling, but it would be damn close. The pitchforks would definitely come out.
(Buy) This is still a defense that lacks proven playmakers. That hasn't changed.
No. 8 - Scattershooting on the sports weekend ...
... The NBA is freaking never boring. Never.
... I'm not sure where I want Kevin Durant to be traded, but please don't let it be the Boston Celtics. I can live with anything else, but I can't live with that.
... The Lakers trading for Kyrie Irving when the rest of the league won't touch him is pretty much the most Lakers thing ever. I can't believe LeBron James is going to trust the rest of his "prime" years with Irving. What could possibly go wrong?
... Zion is just stealing money at this point. Hundreds of millions.
... P.J. Tucker is a Sixer. That makes me really happy.
... It's almost time for me to be a fantasy football commish. I vow to be a better commish this season. I'm tired of @Anwar Richardson suggesting I hand control over to someone else.
... I'm thinking I'm going to take my kids to an Astros game this month.
... For the Texas hard-ball fans out there. This will make you smile.
... Mo Salah! Mo Salah! Running down the Wing! Consider me very surprised that FSG gave Salah the money he wanted in order to get him to agree to an extension. Consider me a happy boy.
... I may or may not have cackled this weekend when the Cristiano Ronaldo news came out of Manchester on Saturday ...
... I have a hunch Wimbledon is going to be really good this week.
No. 9 - The List: Top 10 Guns N Roses songs ...
Never in a million years would I have believed 25 years ago that Guns N Roses would be touring in 2022, but somehow we've made it.
And Carrie Underwood is performing with them.
It seems like as good of a reason as any to do a Top 10 list. I'm sure there will be zero disagreement.
10. Live and Let Die
9. Mr. Brownstone
8. Rocket Queen
7. Estranged
6. Patience
5. Knockin on Heaven's Door
4. Paradise City
3. Sweet Child O' Mine
2. November Rain
1. Welcome to the Jungle
No. 10 - And Finally ...
Dogs, man. Dogs.
I don’t post often, but want to thank you and the team for your great work on a holiday weekend!
Hook ‘Em
TC
I read it, but the failure rate is higher in the last 12 years, just as the team on the field has been a failure during that period. There weren't enough 3*s and so many exceptional 4* and 5* players during the MB era that it was more difficult for the 3*s to break through.
You ignite the fact that many 3* players aren't drafted, but do play a significant role on some very good teams. Gideon is the prominent example you brought up. Poona Ford wasn't drafted, but was a major part of our team and has had a substantial NFL career. Stats are critical, but a sample size of 153 at one school out of tens of thousands across college football requires more analysis beyond these most simplistic stats. Your criteria assumes everything is judged on the drafting stat. It is an excellent metric, but not the only metric. Other metrics could include total snaps for all players as a percentage of all plays. Only consider snaps that they were healthy and able to play. A guy or with an ACL tear doesn't get docked for an injury. How do you judge a player who plays hurt, like Thompson last season?
I understand your lurch for a statistic that clearly demonstrates your point, but Sark can't fill an 85 man roster with all top 70 talents and top 100 portal transfers. If that is what he relies on, we may be lucky to have 40-50 players on the team. Taking smart chances on the remaining available recruits is often where a good staff makes its money. With the current rules we can afford to take these chances. We have 18 commits, but only 3 are in the top 150. Are the 15 others mistakes by the staff?
You already said that you expect Stroh to be upgraded to a 4*. I assume the same holds for Goosby. Mitchell is a consensus 3*, even though Rivals has him as a low 4*. Was he a bad pick-up? My point is that, while the washout rate of 3* recruits is exceptionally high, you have pointed out that the difference between mid 4* and low 3* recruits isn't significantly different. Clearly this is where evaluation and development matter and most of these will never make it to the NFL, but can be significant contributors to the team, both on the field and in practice. Some recruits will serve a significant purpose by just being the best part of a scout team for the starters to practice against. Charles Wright doesn't need to be Bryce Young or Dillon Gabriel to do his best to simulate their movement for practice. Give the starting defense something to look at and anticipate is critical preparation and Wright doesn't need to hit receivers like opposing QBs to make the defense study on the field what they see on film.
Development, development and more development. there's more than one area that has to work at an elite3 level.
