I'm still trying to understand, are you saying 5 and 4 stars are better than 3 star players?
Who knew
Who knew
Ketch's 10 Thoughts From The Weekend (Continuing my crusade!!!!!)
- Thread starter Ketchum
- Start date
Look, it's been a long drought. We all know we suck until we don't. The hype train is hoping for 8 wins this year.... might be an all time low and that's after a hell of an off season. I'd say we're all full on humble pie. Maybe that's just me.
I have been a member for twenty years, and I have to say that I've grown weary of your never-ending crusades.
It's fair to mention it from time-time, but I think that you now talk about it too much. We get it, and some of us don't simply care about it anymore. It's a new day.
I hope that this site gets more informative with new information about current players. The interview with Serinity Douglas are good, but more current aspects would be appreciated.
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“You've got people saying things such as the NFL Draft doesn't matter because Baylor won the Big 12 without realizing that Baylor had a half-dozen kids drafted in 2022 when the math says it should have 2.”
From two to a half dozen is “marginally” better? They did in one year what we did in 14. Their 3 stars can get drafted but ours cannot.
I wonder about TCU when fat Pat was there so long. I feel like his teams put more players in the NFL. I may be wrong. His recruiting was HORRIBLE on paper every year. It felt like his consistency in his systems led to proper evaluations for those systems and yielded higher players being drafted (for their low high school rankings.).
The question I have is why does it have to be one or the other? Development or 6.1s and 6.0s?
¿Por que no los dos?
I think the main point @Ketchum is making is that big championship aspiring programs like Texas should take players that have a higher chance of developing into NFL caliber players because those are the players that bring National Championships to your program. 3 stars still have worth but it's better for a program like Texas to let other teams develop them and then poach them in the portal. You're still going to need role players and such as you are correctly pointing out but teams like Texas shouldn't be taking high school freshman to be role players. With the portal and eliminating the 25 scholarship cap, developed role players can be easily found along with studs. The next few years are going to shake up a lot of fans that are holding on too dearly for the way things used to be.
Geoff - Big fan of yours and OB. You and your team are my “Go-To” source for UT athletics. I thought I would give you some candid and constructive feedback. You have made your case, with great diligence and research, for the correlation between “Stars” (3 vs. 4 vs. 5) and reaching the NFL. I understand it like I understand gravity. Could teach a class on it. You have made this case so many times that I have quit reading columns like this Sunday column. I hope you receive this message in the positive spirit with which I send it. Enjoy the 4th with your family. Best regards. Evytime
I do not hate three-star prospects.
Before I go any further, I feel like I should stress this.
No three-star high school football prospect ever took away any of my ex-girlfriends that I'm aware of. Or took my lunch money. Or bullied me on a basketball court.
None of this is personal.
I just don't think a program with significant aspirations as a major college football program should be making significant investments in them in the age of the college football portal.
Of course, it's not an opinion that most college football coaches would likely agree with and that includes the entire Texas Longhorns coaching staff. Yet, I'm not going to back down from this particular hot take, which feels like less of a hot take and more like common sense from my perspective. In the coming paragraphs, I'm going to try and pull you to my way of thinking.
Before I hit you over the head with math, I'm going to begin with a little common sense. Two of the biggest issues facing the three-star prospect at a program like Texas are time and patience. Neither the prospect nor the program typically have enough of either.
More times than not, the average college football prospect needs two or three years to develop before he begins to scratch the surface of becoming a plus-player at a major program (if it ever happens). If you happen to find a player that is comfortable with a three-year window of development, that player has to hope that he doesn't get recruited over in the process.
Take the three different three-star offensive linemen in the Class of 2020 for the Longhorns - Andrej Karic, Jaylen Garth and Logan Parr. None of the three have been in the program for three seasons yet, but when those players reach their third seasons of the program, they'll be staring at the likes of Kelvin Banks, Devon Campbell, Neto Umeozulu and the rest of the 2022 offensive line class that will likely moved above them in the pecking order as younger players.
The reality at a program like Texas is that a player usually starts to contribute in his first or second season in the program or he gets recruited over or bypassed by someone from the portal. Almost by definition, most three-star prospects aren't ready to contribute at high levels in their first couple of seasons.
See the rub?
Let's take a look at some recent history in the Texas program.
Of the 7 three- and two-star (non-kicking) prospects that the Longhorns signed in 2018, the best of the lot is probably Moro Ojomo. The only other contributor is Christian Jones. Everyone else is gone.
Of the 10 three-star players in the 2019 recruiting class, only Roschon Johnson and T'Vondre Sweat remain in the program. Everyone else is gone.
Of the 9 three-star players from the 2020 class, only Jaylan Ford and Jahdae Barron are sure contributors on the 2022 team.
It's not that three stars never hit. It's that you have to sort through a lot of misses to get to them. During that three-year window, a major college program can't have aspirations for the very top and only come away with five pretty good players out of a 26-player pile of players. That's a 20-percent return on the program's investment and it includes two back-up defensive tackles, a back-up running back, a starting cornerback and a starting inside linebacker that the staff has been trying all-off-season to upgrade on.
Johnson and Barron look like players that will play in the NFL from my vantage point, but getting a 7.7% return on high-level players just isn't good enough. Typically, hitting on the average three-star prospect is a 1 in 10 proposition.
It's like going to the county fair and shooting hoops on a 12-foot goal with a crooked rim, only to win a $20 stuffed panda after you've spent $40.
That's not winning as much as it's not walking away with a total disaster.
No. 2 - Let's look under the burnt orange hood ...
As we work our way through this conversation, let's take a look at the long-term success of the Longhorns with regards to taking three-star prospects by looking at every three-star that Texas has ever signed by position.
Quarterbacks
2005 Colt McCoy, 2006 Sherrod Harris, 2007 G.J. Kinne, 2019 Case McCoy, 2011 David Ash, 2019 Roschon Johnson and 2021 Charles Wright
Notes: What an eclectic little group of players. Technically, only one of the players that has completed his eligibility hit for the Longhorns, but that hit has his number retired. Meanwhile, the second McCoy on this list had some big wins as a starter and it's impossible to know what might have happened with Ash had concussions not ended his career.
NFL Draft rate: 20%
Two things I'd say about this group ...
a. By the time we get to the end of this discussion, I'm going to make a mini-exemption for quarterbacks.
b. I personally rated McCoy and Ash as four stars. Just wanted to say that for the record.
Running backs
2002 Clint Haney, 2005 Jerrell Wilkerson, 2005 Michael Houston, 2006 Antwan Cobb, 2008 Brock Fitzhenry, 2008 Tre Newton, 2008 Ryan Roberson, 2011 Joe Bergeron, 2014 Kevin Shorter, 2016 Tristian Houston and 2017 Daniel Young.
Notes: Technically, D'Onta Foreman was ranked as an athlete, which means that either Newton or Bergeron are the best players out of this group. That tells a story.
NFL Draft rate: 0%
Wide Receivers
2002 Dustin Miksch, 2004 Chris Ogbonnaya, 2004 Nate Jones, 2006 John Marshall, 2011 Miles Onyegbule, 2012 Marcus Johnson, 2013 Montrel Meander, 2014 Dorian Leonard, 2014 Garrett Gray, 2014 Roderick Bernard, 2015 Gilbert Johnson, 2015 Ryan Newsome, 2015 Davion Curtis, 2016 Reggie Hemphill-Mapps, 2017 Jordan Pouncey, 2019 Kennedy Lewis, 2020 Dajon Harrison, 2021 Casey Cain, 2021 Keithron Lee and 2022 Savion Redd
Notes: Going all the way back to Marcus Johnson in 2012, the Longhorns are 0 for their last 12 (not counting Cain or Redd). The three best players from this group are Johnson (who, I ironically ranked as a four-star), Jones and Ogbonnaya - none of whom where all-conference level players as starters, even if all three played on Sundays (one at running back).
NFL Draft rate: 0%
Tight ends
2003 Steve Hogan, 2004 Peter Ullman, 2006 Britt Mitchell, 2006 Greg Smith, 2007 Ahmard Howard, 2007 Ian Harris, 2009 Trey Graham, 2009 Barrett Matthews, 2013 Geoff Swaim, 2014 Blake Whiteley, 2016 Peyton Aucoin, 2017 Cade Brewer, 2019 Jared Wiley and 2021 Juan Davis.
Notes: Out of the 13 players that have completed their eligibility, only Swaim (7th round by the Dallas Cowboys) ever played on Sundays and you could make a strong case that Brewer is the second-best contributor from this group.
NFL Draft rate: 7.7%
Offensive Linemen
2002 Brett Valdez, 2003 Kyle Thornton, 2003 Dallas Griffin, 2004 Adam Ulatoski, 2005 Charlie Tanner, 2005 Chris Hall, 2006 Roy Watts, 2006 Steve Moore, 2008 Luke Poehlmann, 2009 Paden Kelley, 2011 Taylor Doyle, 2011 Marcus Hutchins, 2013 Desmond Harrison, 2014 Elijah Rodriguez, 2014 Terrell Cuney, 2014 Alex Anderson, 2015 Garrett Thomas, 2015 Ronnie Major, 2015 Tristan Nickelson, 2016 Brandon Hodges, 2016 Tope Imade, 2016 Zach Shackelford, 2017 Sam Cosmi, 2017 Derek Kerstetter, 2018 Reese Moore, 2018 Rafiti Ghirmai, 2019 Willie Tyler, 2020 Andrej Karic, 2020 Jaylen Garth, 2020 Logan Parr, 2021 Hayden Conner, 2022 Lance St. Louis and 2022 Connor Robertson
Notes: Out of the 27 players that have completed their eligibility, only Cosmi was drafted. Harrison joins him as a guy that played on Sundays, but he literally never started a game for the Longhorns, no matter how much @Alex Dunlap tried to will it to happen. Other than that, most of the contributors on the list were never really more than pretty good at best, with the likely exception of Ulatoski. This is going to sound harsh, but I'd make the case that one of the problems Texas football has had in the last 15 years is that too many of those players ended up playing a lot of snaps for the program.
NFL Draft rate: 3.7%
No. 3 - Can I just take a brief moment to say ...
OF THE 73 OFFENSIVE PROSPECTS THAT TEXAS HAS TAKEN SINCE 2002, ONLY THREE WERE DRAFTED BY NFL TEAMS!!!!!!!!
No. 4 - Continuing with the Defense ...
Defensive Tackles
2003 Thomas Marshall, 2004 Derek Lokey, 2006 Ben Alexander, 2007 Tyrell Higgins, 2007 Michael Wilcoxon, 2010 Deaires Cotton, 2012 Brandon Moore, 2012 Alex Norman, 2014 Chris Nelson, 2014 Poona Ford, 2015 Du'Vonta Lampkin, 2016 Jordan Elliott, 2016 Gerald Wilbon, 2016 Marcel Southall, 2018 Christian Jones, 2018 Moro Ojomo, 2021 Byron Murphy, 2022 Aaron Bryant and 2022 Kris Ross
Notes: This is actually a group that performs very well, as Lokey, Ford and Elliott all played on Sundays. Of course, Ford was legitimately a great player for the Longhorns. Ironically, the only player (Elliott) from the group of the 14 that have completed their eligibility and was actually drafted only played in six games for the Longhorns before transferring. Getting at least 20+ of a contributor rate isn't a terrible number, especially when Ojomo and Murphy will end up boosting the numbers above 30%.
NFL Draft rate: 7.1%
Defensive Ends
2006 Brian Ellis, 2007 Sam Acho, 2009 Dominique Jones, 2009 Kyle Kriegel, 2012 Caleb Bluiett, 2012 Byrce Cotrell, 2014 Jake McMillon, 2015 Quincy Vasser, 2016 Malcolm Roach, 2016 Andrew Fitzgerald, 2017 Max Cummins, 2017 Jamari Chisholm, 2017 Taquan Graham, 2018 Daniel Carson, 2018 Mike Williams, 2019 T'Vondre Sweat, 2019 Peter Mpagi, 2019 Sawyer Gorham-Welch, 2021 David Abiara, 2021 Barryn Sorrell and 2021 Jordan Thomas,
Notes: Acho is obviously a big hit. Beyond him, Roach and Graham were hits of lesser extent, but still proved to be NFL-level talents. The problem is that almost all of the other players that have finished their eligibility turned out to be complete dudes. Yet, if Sweat has a big year in 2022 and Sorrell pans out as people inside the program hope, we could be talking about a position group with a near 25-percent success rate as quality performers.
NFL Draft rate: 12.5%
Linebackers
2002 Brian Robison, 2002 Marcus Myers, 2003 Scott Derry, 2004 Jeremy Campbell, 2004 Rashad Bobino, 2004 Nic Redwine, 2005 Roderrick Muckelroy, 2008 Dustin Earnest, 2008 Emmanuel Acho, 2009 Patrick Nkwopara, 2012 Dalton Santos, 2012 Alex De La Torre, 2013 Naashon Hughes, 2014 Cameron Hampton, 2014 Andrew Beck, 2015 Cameron Townsend, 2015 Breckyn Hager, 2018 Byron Hobbs, 2019 Caleb Johnson, 2019 Marcus Tillman, 2019 Juwan Mitchell, 2020 Jaylan Ford, 2021 Morice Blackwell, 2021 Terrence Cooks, 2022 Derrick Brown and 2022 Trevell Johnson
Notes: Robison, Muckelroy and Acho were all definite hits, but I'd argue that the program has missed on its last 12, with all due respect to Beck and Hager, who proved to be solid players at other positions. It's kind of a tricky group of players to talk about, but this is an undeniable fact - Texas hasn't struck gold (even remotely) at the actual linebacker position for its defense since the pre-Will Muschamp days.
NFL Draft rate: 13.6%
Defensive Backs
2002 Matthew Melton, 2003 Brandon Foster, 2004 Ryan Palmer, 2006 James Henry, 2008 Blake Gideon, 2010 Adrian White, 2011 Leroy Scott, 2012 Kevin Vaccaro, 2013 Erik Huhn, 2014 Jermaine Roberts, 2014 John Bonney, 2014 Jason Hall, 2015 PJ Locke, 2016 Eric Cuffee, 2016 Chris Brown, 2017 Kobe Boyce and 2019 Marquise Caldwell
Notes: There are a few decent college players in that group, including Foster, Palmer, Gideon and Brown, but not a single impact player ever emerged from a group of 17 players. You'd probably say that Gideon was the best of that group and only Brown warrants being in a conversation with him in the last 15 years.
NFL Draft rate: 0.0%
Athletes
2003 Eric Foreman, 2008 Antoine Hicks, 2012 Jalen Overstreet, 2012 Adrian Colbert, 2013 Chevoski Collins, 2014 D'Onta Foreman, 2015 Deandre McNeal, 2016 Lil'Jordan Humphrey, 2016 Donovan Duvernay, 2020 Kelvontay Dixon, 2020 Jaden Hullaby and 2022 Xavian Brice
Notes: It's interesting that two of the biggest hits of the last decade for the Longhorns on the offensive side of the ball, were listed as "athletes" coming out of high school. Colbert ended up being an NFL player, but only emerged into that kind of player after transferring from the program. Still, not too shabby, given the sample size.
NFL Draft rate: 18.2%
No. 5 - A few final thoughts and some rules ...
... If we mix in all of the athletes into the correct side of the ball, it means that four of the last 81 three-star players that the Longhorns have signed on the offensive side of the ball have eventually been drafted by NFL teams. That's 4.9%.
... The number of NFL drafted players from the defensive side of the ball stands at six in 75 over the last two decades. That's 8%.
... Of the 10 three-star players that have been drafted out of the 153 prospects who have completed their eligibility, the following were recruited post 2008 ... Geoff Swaim, Sam Cosmi, Jordan Elliott, Taquan Graham, Adrian Colbert and D'Onte Foreman. That's six players and two of them ended up transferring from Texas. Only two were All-Big 12 players.
... No three-star player ever recruited by Texas in the modern era of the Rivals rankings (2002) has ever been selected as a first-round pick.
You can throw in an occasional Marcus Johnson, Lil'Jordan Humphrey or Poona Ford, but the bottom line on these numbers remains poor.
Moving forward, the best thing the Texas program can do is let other programs develop these 1 in 10s and then poach them in the transfer portal.
The only exceptions that should be made are the following:
a. An occasional quarterback from the state of Texas. We'll call it the Colt McCoy rule.
b. An occasional BIG defensive lineman. No tweeners. They all need to be either a defensive tackle or a defensive end that is at least 6-4, 240 pounds.
c. Raw two-way athletes that can play on either side of the ball.
d. Kickers or Punters.
That's it.
Otherwise, that scholarship needs to be saved for a player coming through the Portal with more pure upside (think Agiye Hall) or proven credentials (think Isaiah Neyor).
No. 6 - Historical trends: In-State Defensive Tackles ...
A week ago in this column, we took a look at defensive ends from the Lone Star State and with the commitment of Sydir Mitchell, I thought it might be a good time to look at the defensive tackles that the state produces.
If some of you want the cliffs on this section without having to sort through the names, here are the key points.
a. 75% of five-star players from Texas from 2002-2017 were drafted by NFL teams and 87.5% played on Sundays.
b. 33.3% of high four-star players from Texas from 2004-2017 were drafted by NFL teams.
c. 0.0% of mid four-star players from Texas from 2004-2017 were drafted by NFL teams.
d. 11.8% of low four-star players from Texas from 2004-2017 were drafted by NFL teams.
e. 15.2% of high three-star players from Texas from 2004-2017 were drafted by NFL teams.
Here's how it all looks when you go under the hood of each rankings tier:
Let's look at the five-stars.
2002 - Rod Wright (Texas)
2004 - Frank Okam (Texas)
2005 - Demarcus Granger (Oklahoma)
2012 - Mario Edwards (Florida State)
2012 - Malcom Brown (Texas)
2013 - A'Shawn Robinson (Alabama)
2016 - Ed Oliver (Houston)
2017 - Marvin Wilson (Florida State)
Breakdown
* 6 of the 8 players (75.0%) were drafted by NFL teams and 7 of the 8 played on Sundays.
* 3 of the last 5 five-star defensive tackles since 2005 have been selected in the first round of the NFL Draft and another (Edwards) was selected in the second round.
Now let's look at the high four stars:
2005 - Roy Miller (Texas)
2007 - Andre Jones (Texas)
2008 - Jarvis Humphrey (Texas)
2009 - Jamarkus McFarland (Oklahoma)
2009 - Calvin Howell (Texas)
2015 - Daylon Mack (Texas A&M)
Breakdown
* 2 of the 6 players (33.0%) were drafted by NFL teams: Miller (3rd round) and Mack (5th round).
Mid Four Stars
2008 - Chancey Aghayere (LSU)
2010 - Ashton Dorsey (Texas)
2010 - Taylor Bible (Texas)
2013 - Justin Manning (Texas A&M)
2013 - Isaiah Golden (Texas A&M)
2013 - Kerrick Huggins (Oklahoma)
2014 - Deshawn Washington (Texas A&M)
2015 - Darrian Daniels (Oklahoma State)
Breakdown
* 0 of the 8 players (0.0%) were drafted by NFL teams.
Low Four Stars
2004 - Walter Thomas (Oklahoma State)
2005 - Vince Oghobaase (Duke)
2005 - Vincent Williams (Texas A&M)
2005 - Brandon Antwine (Florida)
2008 - Rod Davis (Texas A&M)
2008 - Kheeston Randall (Texas)
2010 - Eric Humphrey (Oklahoma)
2011 - Jordan Wade (Oklahoma)
2011 - Quincy Russell (Texas)
2011 - Desmond Jackson (Texas)
2011 - Marquis Anderson (Oklahoma)
2012 - Paul Boyette (Texas)
2013 - Hardreck Walker (Texas A&M)
2013 - Andrew Billings (Baylor)
2014 - Zaycoven Henderson (Texas A&M)
2016 - Chris Daniels (Texas)
2016 - Kendall Jones (Alabama)
Breakdown
* 2 of the 17 players (11.8%) were drafted by NFL teams.
No. 7 – BUY or SELL …
(Sell) Knowing that there's no real number that serves as a ceiling, I don't think we'll see guys get pushed out of the class, but it might mean that more guys from the program are "processed" in order to fit them all in next August.
(Buy) I hate watching football games that don't matter and far too often on college football weekends, we're limited to one or two games each week mattering. In my mind, cutting the dead weight and streamlining the sport is going to lead to a better product on our televisions each week. There's not a single team that will get left out of the super heavyweight conferences that I really care about.
(Sell) I can't buy that until I see some evidence. I know the smart thing for me to say as the owner of this site is to tell you yes, but I wouldn't be able to look myself in the mirror if I started to just tell you what you wanted to hear. Hell, this entire column this week is full of stuff I'm not sure any of you want to hear or see.
(Sell) Come on...
(Buy) That's an easy one for me because I definitely think Johntay Cook is going to get his fifth star and Connor Stroh will get bumped up to four stars.
(Sell) Eight will likely do.
(Buy) There's no reason to think that Texas' ability to recruit California is going to decrease in the coming years.
(Sell) I don't think the game is going to be that close.
(Sell) I want you to know that you get an A+ for creativity and consideration for the question that you've asked, but generally speaking, alumni wealth isn't a major consideration for most kids making decisions.
(Buy) I think he wins the Heisman if all of that happens.
(Sell) It would likely be really close and it would likely mean that this season is a disaster on the field and that Sarkisian is in real trouble. I'm still selling, but it would be damn close. The pitchforks would definitely come out.
(Buy) This is still a defense that lacks proven playmakers. That hasn't changed.
No. 8 - Scattershooting on the sports weekend ...
... The NBA is freaking never boring. Never.
... I'm not sure where I want Kevin Durant to be traded, but please don't let it be the Boston Celtics. I can live with anything else, but I can't live with that.
... The Lakers trading for Kyrie Irving when the rest of the league won't touch him is pretty much the most Lakers thing ever. I can't believe LeBron James is going to trust the rest of his "prime" years with Irving. What could possibly go wrong?
... Zion is just stealing money at this point. Hundreds of millions.
... P.J. Tucker is a Sixer. That makes me really happy.
... It's almost time for me to be a fantasy football commish. I vow to be a better commish this season. I'm tired of @Anwar Richardson suggesting I hand control over to someone else.
... I'm thinking I'm going to take my kids to an Astros game this month.
... For the Texas hard-ball fans out there. This will make you smile.
... Mo Salah! Mo Salah! Running down the Wing! Consider me very surprised that FSG gave Salah the money he wanted in order to get him to agree to an extension. Consider me a happy boy.
... I may or may not have cackled this weekend when the Cristiano Ronaldo news came out of Manchester on Saturday ...
... I have a hunch Wimbledon is going to be really good this week.
No. 9 - The List: Top 10 Guns N Roses songs ...
Never in a million years would I have believed 25 years ago that Guns N Roses would be touring in 2022, but somehow we've made it.
And Carrie Underwood is performing with them.
It seems like as good of a reason as any to do a Top 10 list. I'm sure there will be zero disagreement.
10. Live and Let Die
9. Mr. Brownstone
8. Rocket Queen
7. Estranged
6. Patience
5. Knockin on Heaven's Door
4. Paradise City
3. Sweet Child O' Mine
2. November Rain
1. Welcome to the Jungle
No. 10 - And Finally ...
Dogs, man. Dogs.
Fair enough. There may not be enough data yet but to compare apples to apples you need to use the same metric you use with HS players—getting drafted. Not starting.
Ketch,
I think this is a strong factor and to be fair, we got intoxicated the other way with a couple of coaches who recruited fairly well with star averages, but fell down in a huge way in player developmen, and recruiting STRATEGY and roster building
Using our own data, with these previous coaches, and their misses on most other factors with talent, is interesting but I can go back to MACK. He littered us with crazy star averages, solid strategy, and OK player development. In his 10 year "hayday" streak I believe he was both the winningest coach and had the most current NFL players. As we know was not the greatest player developer, nor an in game genius by "mr February" proved a constant flow of the 4s and 5s was the way to go,
OL is an area we should probably downplay IMO. Development and evaluation seem to be a little more important than stars in this position. This last class aside, arguably the 3 most recent "ready" kids to show up were Cosmi, Hayden Conner, D. Kersetetter, all were 3 stars. Baylor and Okie State will give us all we can handle this year, and others with 3 (and 2) star OLs. Services hit on a few obvious 5 and high 4 star OLs, as I believe they did last year, but for the most part projecting a mid 4 or below vs a high 3 in OL is a crapshoot.
I will also leave out some of the politics around star ranking and the games behind the scenes.
Net-net - This is a new staff, they are grabbing 4s with a dash of High 3s, we could see pretty different results with their crops given the above.
So I am clear, I am a believer in over the long haul, stars do matter. Teams at the top of the recruiting rankings are largely at the top of the win columns over time.
I think this is a strong factor and to be fair, we got intoxicated the other way with a couple of coaches who recruited fairly well with star averages, but fell down in a huge way in player developmen, and recruiting STRATEGY and roster building
Using our own data, with these previous coaches, and their misses on most other factors with talent, is interesting but I can go back to MACK. He littered us with crazy star averages, solid strategy, and OK player development. In his 10 year "hayday" streak I believe he was both the winningest coach and had the most current NFL players. As we know was not the greatest player developer, nor an in game genius by "mr February" proved a constant flow of the 4s and 5s was the way to go,
OL is an area we should probably downplay IMO. Development and evaluation seem to be a little more important than stars in this position. This last class aside, arguably the 3 most recent "ready" kids to show up were Cosmi, Hayden Conner, D. Kersetetter, all were 3 stars. Baylor and Okie State will give us all we can handle this year, and others with 3 (and 2) star OLs. Services hit on a few obvious 5 and high 4 star OLs, as I believe they did last year, but for the most part projecting a mid 4 or below vs a high 3 in OL is a crapshoot.
I will also leave out some of the politics around star ranking and the games behind the scenes.
Net-net - This is a new staff, they are grabbing 4s with a dash of High 3s, we could see pretty different results with their crops given the above.
So I am clear, I am a believer in over the long haul, stars do matter. Teams at the top of the recruiting rankings are largely at the top of the win columns over time.
@Ketchum Love the analysis Ketch! The story is clear. We need to start to perfect our portal recruiting strategy since we will not be able to rely on the long term relationship approach that so many of our recruits rave about.
One question, do our offensive coaches recruit for the defense. Other than Bo Davis, I am not sure I have heard a single defensive coach named by the defense commits or even the OB staff in their commentary. Who is the key to bringing these guys in on defense? Should we be concerned no defense coaches are getting any mentions on recruiting?
One question, do our offensive coaches recruit for the defense. Other than Bo Davis, I am not sure I have heard a single defensive coach named by the defense commits or even the OB staff in their commentary. Who is the key to bringing these guys in on defense? Should we be concerned no defense coaches are getting any mentions on recruiting?
My issue with this analysis is that it seems like a false equivalence fallacy. Far more meaningful would be an analysis of these specific coaches producing results (or not) with similar prospects. What this analysis yields instead is not that. None of the coaches responsible for those results are responsible for what this class may become. And saying the specific staff shouldn't matter would be wrong; it's really the only thing that should matter.
I do not hate three-star prospects.
Before I go any further, I feel like I should stress this.
No three-star high school football prospect ever took away any of my ex-girlfriends that I'm aware of. Or took my lunch money. Or bullied me on a basketball court.
None of this is personal.
I just don't think a program with significant aspirations as a major college football program should be making significant investments in them in the age of the college football portal.
Of course, it's not an opinion that most college football coaches would likely agree with and that includes the entire Texas Longhorns coaching staff. Yet, I'm not going to back down from this particular hot take, which feels like less of a hot take and more like common sense from my perspective. In the coming paragraphs, I'm going to try and pull you to my way of thinking.
Before I hit you over the head with math, I'm going to begin with a little common sense. Two of the biggest issues facing the three-star prospect at a program like Texas are time and patience. Neither the prospect nor the program typically have enough of either.
More times than not, the average college football prospect needs two or three years to develop before he begins to scratch the surface of becoming a plus-player at a major program (if it ever happens). If you happen to find a player that is comfortable with a three-year window of development, that player has to hope that he doesn't get recruited over in the process.
Take the three different three-star offensive linemen in the Class of 2020 for the Longhorns - Andrej Karic, Jaylen Garth and Logan Parr. None of the three have been in the program for three seasons yet, but when those players reach their third seasons of the program, they'll be staring at the likes of Kelvin Banks, Devon Campbell, Neto Umeozulu and the rest of the 2022 offensive line class that will likely moved above them in the pecking order as younger players.
The reality at a program like Texas is that a player usually starts to contribute in his first or second season in the program or he gets recruited over or bypassed by someone from the portal. Almost by definition, most three-star prospects aren't ready to contribute at high levels in their first couple of seasons.
See the rub?
Let's take a look at some recent history in the Texas program.
Of the 7 three- and two-star (non-kicking) prospects that the Longhorns signed in 2018, the best of the lot is probably Moro Ojomo. The only other contributor is Christian Jones. Everyone else is gone.
Of the 10 three-star players in the 2019 recruiting class, only Roschon Johnson and T'Vondre Sweat remain in the program. Everyone else is gone.
Of the 9 three-star players from the 2020 class, only Jaylan Ford and Jahdae Barron are sure contributors on the 2022 team.
It's not that three stars never hit. It's that you have to sort through a lot of misses to get to them. During that three-year window, a major college program can't have aspirations for the very top and only come away with five pretty good players out of a 26-player pile of players. That's a 20-percent return on the program's investment and it includes two back-up defensive tackles, a back-up running back, a starting cornerback and a starting inside linebacker that the staff has been trying all-off-season to upgrade on.
Johnson and Barron look like players that will play in the NFL from my vantage point, but getting a 7.7% return on high-level players just isn't good enough. Typically, hitting on the average three-star prospect is a 1 in 10 proposition.
It's like going to the county fair and shooting hoops on a 12-foot goal with a crooked rim, only to win a $20 stuffed panda after you've spent $40.
That's not winning as much as it's not walking away with a total disaster.
No. 2 - Let's look under the burnt orange hood ...
As we work our way through this conversation, let's take a look at the long-term success of the Longhorns with regards to taking three-star prospects by looking at every three-star that Texas has ever signed by position.
Quarterbacks
2005 Colt McCoy, 2006 Sherrod Harris, 2007 G.J. Kinne, 2019 Case McCoy, 2011 David Ash, 2019 Roschon Johnson and 2021 Charles Wright
Notes: What an eclectic little group of players. Technically, only one of the players that has completed his eligibility hit for the Longhorns, but that hit has his number retired. Meanwhile, the second McCoy on this list had some big wins as a starter and it's impossible to know what might have happened with Ash had concussions not ended his career.
NFL Draft rate: 20%
Two things I'd say about this group ...
a. By the time we get to the end of this discussion, I'm going to make a mini-exemption for quarterbacks.
b. I personally rated McCoy and Ash as four stars. Just wanted to say that for the record.
Running backs
2002 Clint Haney, 2005 Jerrell Wilkerson, 2005 Michael Houston, 2006 Antwan Cobb, 2008 Brock Fitzhenry, 2008 Tre Newton, 2008 Ryan Roberson, 2011 Joe Bergeron, 2014 Kevin Shorter, 2016 Tristian Houston and 2017 Daniel Young.
Notes: Technically, D'Onta Foreman was ranked as an athlete, which means that either Newton or Bergeron are the best players out of this group. That tells a story.
NFL Draft rate: 0%
Wide Receivers
2002 Dustin Miksch, 2004 Chris Ogbonnaya, 2004 Nate Jones, 2006 John Marshall, 2011 Miles Onyegbule, 2012 Marcus Johnson, 2013 Montrel Meander, 2014 Dorian Leonard, 2014 Garrett Gray, 2014 Roderick Bernard, 2015 Gilbert Johnson, 2015 Ryan Newsome, 2015 Davion Curtis, 2016 Reggie Hemphill-Mapps, 2017 Jordan Pouncey, 2019 Kennedy Lewis, 2020 Dajon Harrison, 2021 Casey Cain, 2021 Keithron Lee and 2022 Savion Redd
Notes: Going all the way back to Marcus Johnson in 2012, the Longhorns are 0 for their last 12 (not counting Cain or Redd). The three best players from this group are Johnson (who, I ironically ranked as a four-star), Jones and Ogbonnaya - none of whom where all-conference level players as starters, even if all three played on Sundays (one at running back).
NFL Draft rate: 0%
Tight ends
2003 Steve Hogan, 2004 Peter Ullman, 2006 Britt Mitchell, 2006 Greg Smith, 2007 Ahmard Howard, 2007 Ian Harris, 2009 Trey Graham, 2009 Barrett Matthews, 2013 Geoff Swaim, 2014 Blake Whiteley, 2016 Peyton Aucoin, 2017 Cade Brewer, 2019 Jared Wiley and 2021 Juan Davis.
Notes: Out of the 13 players that have completed their eligibility, only Swaim (7th round by the Dallas Cowboys) ever played on Sundays and you could make a strong case that Brewer is the second-best contributor from this group.
NFL Draft rate: 7.7%
Offensive Linemen
2002 Brett Valdez, 2003 Kyle Thornton, 2003 Dallas Griffin, 2004 Adam Ulatoski, 2005 Charlie Tanner, 2005 Chris Hall, 2006 Roy Watts, 2006 Steve Moore, 2008 Luke Poehlmann, 2009 Paden Kelley, 2011 Taylor Doyle, 2011 Marcus Hutchins, 2013 Desmond Harrison, 2014 Elijah Rodriguez, 2014 Terrell Cuney, 2014 Alex Anderson, 2015 Garrett Thomas, 2015 Ronnie Major, 2015 Tristan Nickelson, 2016 Brandon Hodges, 2016 Tope Imade, 2016 Zach Shackelford, 2017 Sam Cosmi, 2017 Derek Kerstetter, 2018 Reese Moore, 2018 Rafiti Ghirmai, 2019 Willie Tyler, 2020 Andrej Karic, 2020 Jaylen Garth, 2020 Logan Parr, 2021 Hayden Conner, 2022 Lance St. Louis and 2022 Connor Robertson
Notes: Out of the 27 players that have completed their eligibility, only Cosmi was drafted. Harrison joins him as a guy that played on Sundays, but he literally never started a game for the Longhorns, no matter how much @Alex Dunlap tried to will it to happen. Other than that, most of the contributors on the list were never really more than pretty good at best, with the likely exception of Ulatoski. This is going to sound harsh, but I'd make the case that one of the problems Texas football has had in the last 15 years is that too many of those players ended up playing a lot of snaps for the program.
NFL Draft rate: 3.7%
No. 3 - Can I just take a brief moment to say ...
OF THE 73 OFFENSIVE PROSPECTS THAT TEXAS HAS TAKEN SINCE 2002, ONLY THREE WERE DRAFTED BY NFL TEAMS!!!!!!!!
No. 4 - Continuing with the Defense ...
Defensive Tackles
2003 Thomas Marshall, 2004 Derek Lokey, 2006 Ben Alexander, 2007 Tyrell Higgins, 2007 Michael Wilcoxon, 2010 Deaires Cotton, 2012 Brandon Moore, 2012 Alex Norman, 2014 Chris Nelson, 2014 Poona Ford, 2015 Du'Vonta Lampkin, 2016 Jordan Elliott, 2016 Gerald Wilbon, 2016 Marcel Southall, 2018 Christian Jones, 2018 Moro Ojomo, 2021 Byron Murphy, 2022 Aaron Bryant and 2022 Kris Ross
Notes: This is actually a group that performs very well, as Lokey, Ford and Elliott all played on Sundays. Of course, Ford was legitimately a great player for the Longhorns. Ironically, the only player (Elliott) from the group of the 14 that have completed their eligibility and was actually drafted only played in six games for the Longhorns before transferring. Getting at least 20+ of a contributor rate isn't a terrible number, especially when Ojomo and Murphy will end up boosting the numbers above 30%.
NFL Draft rate: 7.1%
Defensive Ends
2006 Brian Ellis, 2007 Sam Acho, 2009 Dominique Jones, 2009 Kyle Kriegel, 2012 Caleb Bluiett, 2012 Byrce Cotrell, 2014 Jake McMillon, 2015 Quincy Vasser, 2016 Malcolm Roach, 2016 Andrew Fitzgerald, 2017 Max Cummins, 2017 Jamari Chisholm, 2017 Taquan Graham, 2018 Daniel Carson, 2018 Mike Williams, 2019 T'Vondre Sweat, 2019 Peter Mpagi, 2019 Sawyer Gorham-Welch, 2021 David Abiara, 2021 Barryn Sorrell and 2021 Jordan Thomas,
Notes: Acho is obviously a big hit. Beyond him, Roach and Graham were hits of lesser extent, but still proved to be NFL-level talents. The problem is that almost all of the other players that have finished their eligibility turned out to be complete dudes. Yet, if Sweat has a big year in 2022 and Sorrell pans out as people inside the program hope, we could be talking about a position group with a near 25-percent success rate as quality performers.
NFL Draft rate: 12.5%
Linebackers
2002 Brian Robison, 2002 Marcus Myers, 2003 Scott Derry, 2004 Jeremy Campbell, 2004 Rashad Bobino, 2004 Nic Redwine, 2005 Roderrick Muckelroy, 2008 Dustin Earnest, 2008 Emmanuel Acho, 2009 Patrick Nkwopara, 2012 Dalton Santos, 2012 Alex De La Torre, 2013 Naashon Hughes, 2014 Cameron Hampton, 2014 Andrew Beck, 2015 Cameron Townsend, 2015 Breckyn Hager, 2018 Byron Hobbs, 2019 Caleb Johnson, 2019 Marcus Tillman, 2019 Juwan Mitchell, 2020 Jaylan Ford, 2021 Morice Blackwell, 2021 Terrence Cooks, 2022 Derrick Brown and 2022 Trevell Johnson
Notes: Robison, Muckelroy and Acho were all definite hits, but I'd argue that the program has missed on its last 12, with all due respect to Beck and Hager, who proved to be solid players at other positions. It's kind of a tricky group of players to talk about, but this is an undeniable fact - Texas hasn't struck gold (even remotely) at the actual linebacker position for its defense since the pre-Will Muschamp days.
NFL Draft rate: 13.6%
Defensive Backs
2002 Matthew Melton, 2003 Brandon Foster, 2004 Ryan Palmer, 2006 James Henry, 2008 Blake Gideon, 2010 Adrian White, 2011 Leroy Scott, 2012 Kevin Vaccaro, 2013 Erik Huhn, 2014 Jermaine Roberts, 2014 John Bonney, 2014 Jason Hall, 2015 PJ Locke, 2016 Eric Cuffee, 2016 Chris Brown, 2017 Kobe Boyce and 2019 Marquise Caldwell
Notes: There are a few decent college players in that group, including Foster, Palmer, Gideon and Brown, but not a single impact player ever emerged from a group of 17 players. You'd probably say that Gideon was the best of that group and only Brown warrants being in a conversation with him in the last 15 years.
NFL Draft rate: 0.0%
Athletes
2003 Eric Foreman, 2008 Antoine Hicks, 2012 Jalen Overstreet, 2012 Adrian Colbert, 2013 Chevoski Collins, 2014 D'Onta Foreman, 2015 Deandre McNeal, 2016 Lil'Jordan Humphrey, 2016 Donovan Duvernay, 2020 Kelvontay Dixon, 2020 Jaden Hullaby and 2022 Xavian Brice
Notes: It's interesting that two of the biggest hits of the last decade for the Longhorns on the offensive side of the ball, were listed as "athletes" coming out of high school. Colbert ended up being an NFL player, but only emerged into that kind of player after transferring from the program. Still, not too shabby, given the sample size.
NFL Draft rate: 18.2%
No. 5 - A few final thoughts and some rules ...
... If we mix in all of the athletes into the correct side of the ball, it means that four of the last 81 three-star players that the Longhorns have signed on the offensive side of the ball have eventually been drafted by NFL teams. That's 4.9%.
... The number of NFL drafted players from the defensive side of the ball stands at six in 75 over the last two decades. That's 8%.
... Of the 10 three-star players that have been drafted out of the 153 prospects who have completed their eligibility, the following were recruited post 2008 ... Geoff Swaim, Sam Cosmi, Jordan Elliott, Taquan Graham, Adrian Colbert and D'Onte Foreman. That's six players and two of them ended up transferring from Texas. Only two were All-Big 12 players.
... No three-star player ever recruited by Texas in the modern era of the Rivals rankings (2002) has ever been selected as a first-round pick.
You can throw in an occasional Marcus Johnson, Lil'Jordan Humphrey or Poona Ford, but the bottom line on these numbers remains poor.
Moving forward, the best thing the Texas program can do is let other programs develop these 1 in 10s and then poach them in the transfer portal.
The only exceptions that should be made are the following:
a. An occasional quarterback from the state of Texas. We'll call it the Colt McCoy rule.
b. An occasional BIG defensive lineman. No tweeners. They all need to be either a defensive tackle or a defensive end that is at least 6-4, 240 pounds.
c. Raw two-way athletes that can play on either side of the ball.
d. Kickers or Punters.
That's it.
Otherwise, that scholarship needs to be saved for a player coming through the Portal with more pure upside (think Agiye Hall) or proven credentials (think Isaiah Neyor).
No. 6 - Historical trends: In-State Defensive Tackles ...
A week ago in this column, we took a look at defensive ends from the Lone Star State and with the commitment of Sydir Mitchell, I thought it might be a good time to look at the defensive tackles that the state produces.
If some of you want the cliffs on this section without having to sort through the names, here are the key points.
a. 75% of five-star players from Texas from 2002-2017 were drafted by NFL teams and 87.5% played on Sundays.
b. 33.3% of high four-star players from Texas from 2004-2017 were drafted by NFL teams.
c. 0.0% of mid four-star players from Texas from 2004-2017 were drafted by NFL teams.
d. 11.8% of low four-star players from Texas from 2004-2017 were drafted by NFL teams.
e. 15.2% of high three-star players from Texas from 2004-2017 were drafted by NFL teams.
Here's how it all looks when you go under the hood of each rankings tier:
Let's look at the five-stars.
2002 - Rod Wright (Texas)
2004 - Frank Okam (Texas)
2005 - Demarcus Granger (Oklahoma)
2012 - Mario Edwards (Florida State)
2012 - Malcom Brown (Texas)
2013 - A'Shawn Robinson (Alabama)
2016 - Ed Oliver (Houston)
2017 - Marvin Wilson (Florida State)
Breakdown
* 6 of the 8 players (75.0%) were drafted by NFL teams and 7 of the 8 played on Sundays.
* 3 of the last 5 five-star defensive tackles since 2005 have been selected in the first round of the NFL Draft and another (Edwards) was selected in the second round.
Now let's look at the high four stars:
2005 - Roy Miller (Texas)
2007 - Andre Jones (Texas)
2008 - Jarvis Humphrey (Texas)
2009 - Jamarkus McFarland (Oklahoma)
2009 - Calvin Howell (Texas)
2015 - Daylon Mack (Texas A&M)
Breakdown
* 2 of the 6 players (33.0%) were drafted by NFL teams: Miller (3rd round) and Mack (5th round).
Mid Four Stars
2008 - Chancey Aghayere (LSU)
2010 - Ashton Dorsey (Texas)
2010 - Taylor Bible (Texas)
2013 - Justin Manning (Texas A&M)
2013 - Isaiah Golden (Texas A&M)
2013 - Kerrick Huggins (Oklahoma)
2014 - Deshawn Washington (Texas A&M)
2015 - Darrian Daniels (Oklahoma State)
Breakdown
* 0 of the 8 players (0.0%) were drafted by NFL teams.
Low Four Stars
2004 - Walter Thomas (Oklahoma State)
2005 - Vince Oghobaase (Duke)
2005 - Vincent Williams (Texas A&M)
2005 - Brandon Antwine (Florida)
2008 - Rod Davis (Texas A&M)
2008 - Kheeston Randall (Texas)
2010 - Eric Humphrey (Oklahoma)
2011 - Jordan Wade (Oklahoma)
2011 - Quincy Russell (Texas)
2011 - Desmond Jackson (Texas)
2011 - Marquis Anderson (Oklahoma)
2012 - Paul Boyette (Texas)
2013 - Hardreck Walker (Texas A&M)
2013 - Andrew Billings (Baylor)
2014 - Zaycoven Henderson (Texas A&M)
2016 - Chris Daniels (Texas)
2016 - Kendall Jones (Alabama)
Breakdown
* 2 of the 17 players (11.8%) were drafted by NFL teams.
No. 7 – BUY or SELL …
(Sell) Knowing that there's no real number that serves as a ceiling, I don't think we'll see guys get pushed out of the class, but it might mean that more guys from the program are "processed" in order to fit them all in next August.
(Buy) I hate watching football games that don't matter and far too often on college football weekends, we're limited to one or two games each week mattering. In my mind, cutting the dead weight and streamlining the sport is going to lead to a better product on our televisions each week. There's not a single team that will get left out of the super heavyweight conferences that I really care about.
(Sell) I can't buy that until I see some evidence. I know the smart thing for me to say as the owner of this site is to tell you yes, but I wouldn't be able to look myself in the mirror if I started to just tell you what you wanted to hear. Hell, this entire column this week is full of stuff I'm not sure any of you want to hear or see.
(Sell) Come on...
(Buy) That's an easy one for me because I definitely think Johntay Cook is going to get his fifth star and Connor Stroh will get bumped up to four stars.
(Sell) Eight will likely do.
(Buy) There's no reason to think that Texas' ability to recruit California is going to decrease in the coming years.
(Sell) I don't think the game is going to be that close.
(Sell) I want you to know that you get an A+ for creativity and consideration for the question that you've asked, but generally speaking, alumni wealth isn't a major consideration for most kids making decisions.
(Buy) I think he wins the Heisman if all of that happens.
(Sell) It would likely be really close and it would likely mean that this season is a disaster on the field and that Sarkisian is in real trouble. I'm still selling, but it would be damn close. The pitchforks would definitely come out.
(Buy) This is still a defense that lacks proven playmakers. That hasn't changed.
No. 8 - Scattershooting on the sports weekend ...
... The NBA is freaking never boring. Never.
... I'm not sure where I want Kevin Durant to be traded, but please don't let it be the Boston Celtics. I can live with anything else, but I can't live with that.
... The Lakers trading for Kyrie Irving when the rest of the league won't touch him is pretty much the most Lakers thing ever. I can't believe LeBron James is going to trust the rest of his "prime" years with Irving. What could possibly go wrong?
... Zion is just stealing money at this point. Hundreds of millions.
... P.J. Tucker is a Sixer. That makes me really happy.
... It's almost time for me to be a fantasy football commish. I vow to be a better commish this season. I'm tired of @Anwar Richardson suggesting I hand control over to someone else.
... I'm thinking I'm going to take my kids to an Astros game this month.
... For the Texas hard-ball fans out there. This will make you smile.
... Mo Salah! Mo Salah! Running down the Wing! Consider me very surprised that FSG gave Salah the money he wanted in order to get him to agree to an extension. Consider me a happy boy.
... I may or may not have cackled this weekend when the Cristiano Ronaldo news came out of Manchester on Saturday ...
... I have a hunch Wimbledon is going to be really good this week.
No. 9 - The List: Top 10 Guns N Roses songs ...
Never in a million years would I have believed 25 years ago that Guns N Roses would be touring in 2022, but somehow we've made it.
And Carrie Underwood is performing with them.
It seems like as good of a reason as any to do a Top 10 list. I'm sure there will be zero disagreement.
10. Live and Let Die
9. Mr. Brownstone
8. Rocket Queen
7. Estranged
6. Patience
5. Knockin on Heaven's Door
4. Paradise City
3. Sweet Child O' Mine
2. November Rain
1. Welcome to the Jungle
No. 10 - And Finally ...
Dogs, man. Dogs.
EDIT: And that's not to say that an analysis of these coaches would necessarily be different (but it could be). Meanwhile, the perspective that schools should weaponize the portal in ways they may not currently be doing makes sense, regardless, though I think you underestimate the risks to team culture with that approach and are not considering enough the benefits of being able to stash talented players on your roster and develop them for a couple seasons before they see the field (if you can ever raise your program to that level, that is, and who knows if this—or any—staff will be able to do that in this new era of college football?).
EDIT 2: Sark spent a lot of time this off-season identifying culture as something that went wrong last year, and I think the guys we see already committed to this class (and also last class, but maybe not as much) are guys that seem like "culture" guys. Assuming a good to great season this season (a big assumption, I know), I could easily see the types of recruiting changes for which @Ketchum is advocating, starting next year or maybe the year after if the coaches feel one more year of "foundation" building is needed before committing more heavily to the portal as a primary resource.
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How easy is it to poach these portal players? Doesn't seem so easy so far.
I do not hate three-star prospects.
Before I go any further, I feel like I should stress this.
No three-star high school football prospect ever took away any of my ex-girlfriends that I'm aware of. Or took my lunch money. Or bullied me on a basketball court.
None of this is personal.
I just don't think a program with significant aspirations as a major college football program should be making significant investments in them in the age of the college football portal.
Of course, it's not an opinion that most college football coaches would likely agree with and that includes the entire Texas Longhorns coaching staff. Yet, I'm not going to back down from this particular hot take, which feels like less of a hot take and more like common sense from my perspective. In the coming paragraphs, I'm going to try and pull you to my way of thinking.
Before I hit you over the head with math, I'm going to begin with a little common sense. Two of the biggest issues facing the three-star prospect at a program like Texas are time and patience. Neither the prospect nor the program typically have enough of either.
More times than not, the average college football prospect needs two or three years to develop before he begins to scratch the surface of becoming a plus-player at a major program (if it ever happens). If you happen to find a player that is comfortable with a three-year window of development, that player has to hope that he doesn't get recruited over in the process.
Take the three different three-star offensive linemen in the Class of 2020 for the Longhorns - Andrej Karic, Jaylen Garth and Logan Parr. None of the three have been in the program for three seasons yet, but when those players reach their third seasons of the program, they'll be staring at the likes of Kelvin Banks, Devon Campbell, Neto Umeozulu and the rest of the 2022 offensive line class that will likely moved above them in the pecking order as younger players.
The reality at a program like Texas is that a player usually starts to contribute in his first or second season in the program or he gets recruited over or bypassed by someone from the portal. Almost by definition, most three-star prospects aren't ready to contribute at high levels in their first couple of seasons.
See the rub?
Let's take a look at some recent history in the Texas program.
Of the 7 three- and two-star (non-kicking) prospects that the Longhorns signed in 2018, the best of the lot is probably Moro Ojomo. The only other contributor is Christian Jones. Everyone else is gone.
Of the 10 three-star players in the 2019 recruiting class, only Roschon Johnson and T'Vondre Sweat remain in the program. Everyone else is gone.
Of the 9 three-star players from the 2020 class, only Jaylan Ford and Jahdae Barron are sure contributors on the 2022 team.
It's not that three stars never hit. It's that you have to sort through a lot of misses to get to them. During that three-year window, a major college program can't have aspirations for the very top and only come away with five pretty good players out of a 26-player pile of players. That's a 20-percent return on the program's investment and it includes two back-up defensive tackles, a back-up running back, a starting cornerback and a starting inside linebacker that the staff has been trying all-off-season to upgrade on.
Johnson and Barron look like players that will play in the NFL from my vantage point, but getting a 7.7% return on high-level players just isn't good enough. Typically, hitting on the average three-star prospect is a 1 in 10 proposition.
It's like going to the county fair and shooting hoops on a 12-foot goal with a crooked rim, only to win a $20 stuffed panda after you've spent $40.
That's not winning as much as it's not walking away with a total disaster.
No. 2 - Let's look under the burnt orange hood ...
As we work our way through this conversation, let's take a look at the long-term success of the Longhorns with regards to taking three-star prospects by looking at every three-star that Texas has ever signed by position.
Quarterbacks
2005 Colt McCoy, 2006 Sherrod Harris, 2007 G.J. Kinne, 2019 Case McCoy, 2011 David Ash, 2019 Roschon Johnson and 2021 Charles Wright
Notes: What an eclectic little group of players. Technically, only one of the players that has completed his eligibility hit for the Longhorns, but that hit has his number retired. Meanwhile, the second McCoy on this list had some big wins as a starter and it's impossible to know what might have happened with Ash had concussions not ended his career.
NFL Draft rate: 20%
Two things I'd say about this group ...
a. By the time we get to the end of this discussion, I'm going to make a mini-exemption for quarterbacks.
b. I personally rated McCoy and Ash as four stars. Just wanted to say that for the record.
Running backs
2002 Clint Haney, 2005 Jerrell Wilkerson, 2005 Michael Houston, 2006 Antwan Cobb, 2008 Brock Fitzhenry, 2008 Tre Newton, 2008 Ryan Roberson, 2011 Joe Bergeron, 2014 Kevin Shorter, 2016 Tristian Houston and 2017 Daniel Young.
Notes: Technically, D'Onta Foreman was ranked as an athlete, which means that either Newton or Bergeron are the best players out of this group. That tells a story.
NFL Draft rate: 0%
Wide Receivers
2002 Dustin Miksch, 2004 Chris Ogbonnaya, 2004 Nate Jones, 2006 John Marshall, 2011 Miles Onyegbule, 2012 Marcus Johnson, 2013 Montrel Meander, 2014 Dorian Leonard, 2014 Garrett Gray, 2014 Roderick Bernard, 2015 Gilbert Johnson, 2015 Ryan Newsome, 2015 Davion Curtis, 2016 Reggie Hemphill-Mapps, 2017 Jordan Pouncey, 2019 Kennedy Lewis, 2020 Dajon Harrison, 2021 Casey Cain, 2021 Keithron Lee and 2022 Savion Redd
Notes: Going all the way back to Marcus Johnson in 2012, the Longhorns are 0 for their last 12 (not counting Cain or Redd). The three best players from this group are Johnson (who, I ironically ranked as a four-star), Jones and Ogbonnaya - none of whom where all-conference level players as starters, even if all three played on Sundays (one at running back).
NFL Draft rate: 0%
Tight ends
2003 Steve Hogan, 2004 Peter Ullman, 2006 Britt Mitchell, 2006 Greg Smith, 2007 Ahmard Howard, 2007 Ian Harris, 2009 Trey Graham, 2009 Barrett Matthews, 2013 Geoff Swaim, 2014 Blake Whiteley, 2016 Peyton Aucoin, 2017 Cade Brewer, 2019 Jared Wiley and 2021 Juan Davis.
Notes: Out of the 13 players that have completed their eligibility, only Swaim (7th round by the Dallas Cowboys) ever played on Sundays and you could make a strong case that Brewer is the second-best contributor from this group.
NFL Draft rate: 7.7%
Offensive Linemen
2002 Brett Valdez, 2003 Kyle Thornton, 2003 Dallas Griffin, 2004 Adam Ulatoski, 2005 Charlie Tanner, 2005 Chris Hall, 2006 Roy Watts, 2006 Steve Moore, 2008 Luke Poehlmann, 2009 Paden Kelley, 2011 Taylor Doyle, 2011 Marcus Hutchins, 2013 Desmond Harrison, 2014 Elijah Rodriguez, 2014 Terrell Cuney, 2014 Alex Anderson, 2015 Garrett Thomas, 2015 Ronnie Major, 2015 Tristan Nickelson, 2016 Brandon Hodges, 2016 Tope Imade, 2016 Zach Shackelford, 2017 Sam Cosmi, 2017 Derek Kerstetter, 2018 Reese Moore, 2018 Rafiti Ghirmai, 2019 Willie Tyler, 2020 Andrej Karic, 2020 Jaylen Garth, 2020 Logan Parr, 2021 Hayden Conner, 2022 Lance St. Louis and 2022 Connor Robertson
Notes: Out of the 27 players that have completed their eligibility, only Cosmi was drafted. Harrison joins him as a guy that played on Sundays, but he literally never started a game for the Longhorns, no matter how much @Alex Dunlap tried to will it to happen. Other than that, most of the contributors on the list were never really more than pretty good at best, with the likely exception of Ulatoski. This is going to sound harsh, but I'd make the case that one of the problems Texas football has had in the last 15 years is that too many of those players ended up playing a lot of snaps for the program.
NFL Draft rate: 3.7%
No. 3 - Can I just take a brief moment to say ...
OF THE 73 OFFENSIVE PROSPECTS THAT TEXAS HAS TAKEN SINCE 2002, ONLY THREE WERE DRAFTED BY NFL TEAMS!!!!!!!!
No. 4 - Continuing with the Defense ...
Defensive Tackles
2003 Thomas Marshall, 2004 Derek Lokey, 2006 Ben Alexander, 2007 Tyrell Higgins, 2007 Michael Wilcoxon, 2010 Deaires Cotton, 2012 Brandon Moore, 2012 Alex Norman, 2014 Chris Nelson, 2014 Poona Ford, 2015 Du'Vonta Lampkin, 2016 Jordan Elliott, 2016 Gerald Wilbon, 2016 Marcel Southall, 2018 Christian Jones, 2018 Moro Ojomo, 2021 Byron Murphy, 2022 Aaron Bryant and 2022 Kris Ross
Notes: This is actually a group that performs very well, as Lokey, Ford and Elliott all played on Sundays. Of course, Ford was legitimately a great player for the Longhorns. Ironically, the only player (Elliott) from the group of the 14 that have completed their eligibility and was actually drafted only played in six games for the Longhorns before transferring. Getting at least 20+ of a contributor rate isn't a terrible number, especially when Ojomo and Murphy will end up boosting the numbers above 30%.
NFL Draft rate: 7.1%
Defensive Ends
2006 Brian Ellis, 2007 Sam Acho, 2009 Dominique Jones, 2009 Kyle Kriegel, 2012 Caleb Bluiett, 2012 Byrce Cotrell, 2014 Jake McMillon, 2015 Quincy Vasser, 2016 Malcolm Roach, 2016 Andrew Fitzgerald, 2017 Max Cummins, 2017 Jamari Chisholm, 2017 Taquan Graham, 2018 Daniel Carson, 2018 Mike Williams, 2019 T'Vondre Sweat, 2019 Peter Mpagi, 2019 Sawyer Gorham-Welch, 2021 David Abiara, 2021 Barryn Sorrell and 2021 Jordan Thomas,
Notes: Acho is obviously a big hit. Beyond him, Roach and Graham were hits of lesser extent, but still proved to be NFL-level talents. The problem is that almost all of the other players that have finished their eligibility turned out to be complete dudes. Yet, if Sweat has a big year in 2022 and Sorrell pans out as people inside the program hope, we could be talking about a position group with a near 25-percent success rate as quality performers.
NFL Draft rate: 12.5%
Linebackers
2002 Brian Robison, 2002 Marcus Myers, 2003 Scott Derry, 2004 Jeremy Campbell, 2004 Rashad Bobino, 2004 Nic Redwine, 2005 Roderrick Muckelroy, 2008 Dustin Earnest, 2008 Emmanuel Acho, 2009 Patrick Nkwopara, 2012 Dalton Santos, 2012 Alex De La Torre, 2013 Naashon Hughes, 2014 Cameron Hampton, 2014 Andrew Beck, 2015 Cameron Townsend, 2015 Breckyn Hager, 2018 Byron Hobbs, 2019 Caleb Johnson, 2019 Marcus Tillman, 2019 Juwan Mitchell, 2020 Jaylan Ford, 2021 Morice Blackwell, 2021 Terrence Cooks, 2022 Derrick Brown and 2022 Trevell Johnson
Notes: Robison, Muckelroy and Acho were all definite hits, but I'd argue that the program has missed on its last 12, with all due respect to Beck and Hager, who proved to be solid players at other positions. It's kind of a tricky group of players to talk about, but this is an undeniable fact - Texas hasn't struck gold (even remotely) at the actual linebacker position for its defense since the pre-Will Muschamp days.
NFL Draft rate: 13.6%
Defensive Backs
2002 Matthew Melton, 2003 Brandon Foster, 2004 Ryan Palmer, 2006 James Henry, 2008 Blake Gideon, 2010 Adrian White, 2011 Leroy Scott, 2012 Kevin Vaccaro, 2013 Erik Huhn, 2014 Jermaine Roberts, 2014 John Bonney, 2014 Jason Hall, 2015 PJ Locke, 2016 Eric Cuffee, 2016 Chris Brown, 2017 Kobe Boyce and 2019 Marquise Caldwell
Notes: There are a few decent college players in that group, including Foster, Palmer, Gideon and Brown, but not a single impact player ever emerged from a group of 17 players. You'd probably say that Gideon was the best of that group and only Brown warrants being in a conversation with him in the last 15 years.
NFL Draft rate: 0.0%
Athletes
2003 Eric Foreman, 2008 Antoine Hicks, 2012 Jalen Overstreet, 2012 Adrian Colbert, 2013 Chevoski Collins, 2014 D'Onta Foreman, 2015 Deandre McNeal, 2016 Lil'Jordan Humphrey, 2016 Donovan Duvernay, 2020 Kelvontay Dixon, 2020 Jaden Hullaby and 2022 Xavian Brice
Notes: It's interesting that two of the biggest hits of the last decade for the Longhorns on the offensive side of the ball, were listed as "athletes" coming out of high school. Colbert ended up being an NFL player, but only emerged into that kind of player after transferring from the program. Still, not too shabby, given the sample size.
NFL Draft rate: 18.2%
No. 5 - A few final thoughts and some rules ...
... If we mix in all of the athletes into the correct side of the ball, it means that four of the last 81 three-star players that the Longhorns have signed on the offensive side of the ball have eventually been drafted by NFL teams. That's 4.9%.
... The number of NFL drafted players from the defensive side of the ball stands at six in 75 over the last two decades. That's 8%.
... Of the 10 three-star players that have been drafted out of the 153 prospects who have completed their eligibility, the following were recruited post 2008 ... Geoff Swaim, Sam Cosmi, Jordan Elliott, Taquan Graham, Adrian Colbert and D'Onte Foreman. That's six players and two of them ended up transferring from Texas. Only two were All-Big 12 players.
... No three-star player ever recruited by Texas in the modern era of the Rivals rankings (2002) has ever been selected as a first-round pick.
You can throw in an occasional Marcus Johnson, Lil'Jordan Humphrey or Poona Ford, but the bottom line on these numbers remains poor.
Moving forward, the best thing the Texas program can do is let other programs develop these 1 in 10s and then poach them in the transfer portal.
The only exceptions that should be made are the following:
a. An occasional quarterback from the state of Texas. We'll call it the Colt McCoy rule.
b. An occasional BIG defensive lineman. No tweeners. They all need to be either a defensive tackle or a defensive end that is at least 6-4, 240 pounds.
c. Raw two-way athletes that can play on either side of the ball.
d. Kickers or Punters.
That's it.
Otherwise, that scholarship needs to be saved for a player coming through the Portal with more pure upside (think Agiye Hall) or proven credentials (think Isaiah Neyor).
No. 6 - Historical trends: In-State Defensive Tackles ...
A week ago in this column, we took a look at defensive ends from the Lone Star State and with the commitment of Sydir Mitchell, I thought it might be a good time to look at the defensive tackles that the state produces.
If some of you want the cliffs on this section without having to sort through the names, here are the key points.
a. 75% of five-star players from Texas from 2002-2017 were drafted by NFL teams and 87.5% played on Sundays.
b. 33.3% of high four-star players from Texas from 2004-2017 were drafted by NFL teams.
c. 0.0% of mid four-star players from Texas from 2004-2017 were drafted by NFL teams.
d. 11.8% of low four-star players from Texas from 2004-2017 were drafted by NFL teams.
e. 15.2% of high three-star players from Texas from 2004-2017 were drafted by NFL teams.
Here's how it all looks when you go under the hood of each rankings tier:
Let's look at the five-stars.
2002 - Rod Wright (Texas)
2004 - Frank Okam (Texas)
2005 - Demarcus Granger (Oklahoma)
2012 - Mario Edwards (Florida State)
2012 - Malcom Brown (Texas)
2013 - A'Shawn Robinson (Alabama)
2016 - Ed Oliver (Houston)
2017 - Marvin Wilson (Florida State)
Breakdown
* 6 of the 8 players (75.0%) were drafted by NFL teams and 7 of the 8 played on Sundays.
* 3 of the last 5 five-star defensive tackles since 2005 have been selected in the first round of the NFL Draft and another (Edwards) was selected in the second round.
Now let's look at the high four stars:
2005 - Roy Miller (Texas)
2007 - Andre Jones (Texas)
2008 - Jarvis Humphrey (Texas)
2009 - Jamarkus McFarland (Oklahoma)
2009 - Calvin Howell (Texas)
2015 - Daylon Mack (Texas A&M)
Breakdown
* 2 of the 6 players (33.0%) were drafted by NFL teams: Miller (3rd round) and Mack (5th round).
Mid Four Stars
2008 - Chancey Aghayere (LSU)
2010 - Ashton Dorsey (Texas)
2010 - Taylor Bible (Texas)
2013 - Justin Manning (Texas A&M)
2013 - Isaiah Golden (Texas A&M)
2013 - Kerrick Huggins (Oklahoma)
2014 - Deshawn Washington (Texas A&M)
2015 - Darrian Daniels (Oklahoma State)
Breakdown
* 0 of the 8 players (0.0%) were drafted by NFL teams.
Low Four Stars
2004 - Walter Thomas (Oklahoma State)
2005 - Vince Oghobaase (Duke)
2005 - Vincent Williams (Texas A&M)
2005 - Brandon Antwine (Florida)
2008 - Rod Davis (Texas A&M)
2008 - Kheeston Randall (Texas)
2010 - Eric Humphrey (Oklahoma)
2011 - Jordan Wade (Oklahoma)
2011 - Quincy Russell (Texas)
2011 - Desmond Jackson (Texas)
2011 - Marquis Anderson (Oklahoma)
2012 - Paul Boyette (Texas)
2013 - Hardreck Walker (Texas A&M)
2013 - Andrew Billings (Baylor)
2014 - Zaycoven Henderson (Texas A&M)
2016 - Chris Daniels (Texas)
2016 - Kendall Jones (Alabama)
Breakdown
* 2 of the 17 players (11.8%) were drafted by NFL teams.
No. 7 – BUY or SELL …
(Sell) Knowing that there's no real number that serves as a ceiling, I don't think we'll see guys get pushed out of the class, but it might mean that more guys from the program are "processed" in order to fit them all in next August.
(Buy) I hate watching football games that don't matter and far too often on college football weekends, we're limited to one or two games each week mattering. In my mind, cutting the dead weight and streamlining the sport is going to lead to a better product on our televisions each week. There's not a single team that will get left out of the super heavyweight conferences that I really care about.
(Sell) I can't buy that until I see some evidence. I know the smart thing for me to say as the owner of this site is to tell you yes, but I wouldn't be able to look myself in the mirror if I started to just tell you what you wanted to hear. Hell, this entire column this week is full of stuff I'm not sure any of you want to hear or see.
(Sell) Come on...
(Buy) That's an easy one for me because I definitely think Johntay Cook is going to get his fifth star and Connor Stroh will get bumped up to four stars.
(Sell) Eight will likely do.
(Buy) There's no reason to think that Texas' ability to recruit California is going to decrease in the coming years.
(Sell) I don't think the game is going to be that close.
(Sell) I want you to know that you get an A+ for creativity and consideration for the question that you've asked, but generally speaking, alumni wealth isn't a major consideration for most kids making decisions.
(Buy) I think he wins the Heisman if all of that happens.
(Sell) It would likely be really close and it would likely mean that this season is a disaster on the field and that Sarkisian is in real trouble. I'm still selling, but it would be damn close. The pitchforks would definitely come out.
(Buy) This is still a defense that lacks proven playmakers. That hasn't changed.
No. 8 - Scattershooting on the sports weekend ...
... The NBA is freaking never boring. Never.
... I'm not sure where I want Kevin Durant to be traded, but please don't let it be the Boston Celtics. I can live with anything else, but I can't live with that.
... The Lakers trading for Kyrie Irving when the rest of the league won't touch him is pretty much the most Lakers thing ever. I can't believe LeBron James is going to trust the rest of his "prime" years with Irving. What could possibly go wrong?
... Zion is just stealing money at this point. Hundreds of millions.
... P.J. Tucker is a Sixer. That makes me really happy.
... It's almost time for me to be a fantasy football commish. I vow to be a better commish this season. I'm tired of @Anwar Richardson suggesting I hand control over to someone else.
... I'm thinking I'm going to take my kids to an Astros game this month.
... For the Texas hard-ball fans out there. This will make you smile.
... Mo Salah! Mo Salah! Running down the Wing! Consider me very surprised that FSG gave Salah the money he wanted in order to get him to agree to an extension. Consider me a happy boy.
... I may or may not have cackled this weekend when the Cristiano Ronaldo news came out of Manchester on Saturday ...
... I have a hunch Wimbledon is going to be really good this week.
No. 9 - The List: Top 10 Guns N Roses songs ...
Never in a million years would I have believed 25 years ago that Guns N Roses would be touring in 2022, but somehow we've made it.
And Carrie Underwood is performing with them.
It seems like as good of a reason as any to do a Top 10 list. I'm sure there will be zero disagreement.
10. Live and Let Die
9. Mr. Brownstone
8. Rocket Queen
7. Estranged
6. Patience
5. Knockin on Heaven's Door
4. Paradise City
3. Sweet Child O' Mine
2. November Rain
1. Welcome to the Jungle
No. 10 - And Finally ...
Dogs, man. Dogs.
Is it me or have I read this exact column like 15 times on here?
I am a firm believer in math and data. I feel that Geoff’s point has been made as well.and clearly as it can be by now. Moving forward the transfer portal needs to be exploited.
I also think that the recruiting to a consistent, repeatable, system corollary is important. TCU’s defense under Patterson is a great example of that. Texas’ staff churn and impatience is a good (or bad if you prefer) example of inconsistency. It’s not particularly surprising that our develop has lagged others in light of that.
Moving forward I am hopeful that the current staff’s three star takes are indicative of their movement towards the repeatable system model. In this case the system is very large humans to compete in the SEC. If this is this case and there is a structured plan I find it hopeful and not inconsistent with Geoff’s view.
Ok first off I would say I really appreciate this response because it makes sense to go use something like this
Two hard parts for me to use it
1) I don’t understand their grading system at all - and they don’t explain it ever / or go over it in detail for a game as an example like Alex does his ….. and for some Texas players in the past that have been super highly rated or even wel rated in the last five to eight years it’s made zero sense to me no matter how hard I’ve tried to understand it
It makes me think their ratings are very superficially done in some weird way? Which somewhat makes sense because where is the monitory value in them having someone grade each olinemam at the level Alec does after each game (each team getting six hours of a breakdown etc)
2). A hard thing for both their and Alex grading system is it doesn’t take into account opponent value
When Texas beats the crap out of rice the players get a good score / even though they played a dogshit team - so teams that are the king of their little conference like Louisiana- they end up very high on these lists based on whatever the criteria is / but if they played in the SEC they wouldn’t be there
But Kentucky over the last several years has had some very top guys drafted on the other hand
3) my knowledge of the current lines isn’t high enough to project the drafts over the next three years - and draft look ahead s aren’t that accurate that far out either they usually just use recruiting rankings based on what I can see
4) if we were going to try to make this argument what I’d say we need is
Some teams that had good / great offensive lines - 3years of earlier ago / in a major conference / that then didn’t have draft picks on it
I’m not saying it doesn’t exist - just the ones I think of don’t meet that test
@Ketchum including you here for your thoughts
Anwar i would actually be willing to put in some legwork to help with this question if either of you would be interested in looking at it and we could come up with some parameters
Fans of the band rated November Rain as the band's No.1 song.
Readers' Poll: The 10 Best Guns N' Roses Songs
From "November Rain" to "Rocket Queen" and more of Axl and Co.'s greatest hits
www.rollingstone.com
My bad. I had him as an undrafted free agent.Chris Ogbonnaya was drafted in the 7th round, which completely destroys the point you were making. So it was four of the 73 offensive prospects who were drafted, not three.
He actually had a pretty good year in 2013, catching 48 passes for 343 yards for the Browns.
a. The age thing doesn't make nearly the big deal that you think it does IMO. I just think that's stuff we tell each other in order to find solace in the massive mathematical risk that comes with a player.
b. There's not a ton of difference between the 100 player and the number 700 player in the country. Maybe 10-15% variance from top to bottom.
Most of the 2023 OL class will be gone by 2025 IMO.
The goal should be to hit on one. Two would be sensational.
Its analysis that no one has ever done before. On the weekend of the 4th of July.
I've significantly spoiled you guys. That you for the indirect compliment.
No one is talking about Mitchell. I've mentioned in this thread that he's fairly a mid- or low-four star player.
There is no time like the present to become educated on things. Co-signing an argument from someone that doesn't want to be educated isn't the look anyone should seek.,
Alumni wealth hasn't yet really played a huge role in NIL, but it's likely coming.
Mama Kin didn't make this list. Don't Cry made No.10
Readers' Poll: The 10 Best Guns N' Roses Songs
From "November Rain" to "Rocket Queen" and more of Axl and Co.'s greatest hits
www.rollingstone.com
You're arguing that what a team did 34 years ago is relevant to today when 5 years ago isn't relevant?
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