I think you have supported your reasoning about 3 stars well. Hard to argue with the numbers you have shown. I'm sure that coaches don't agree because they think they can "coach them up" and develop them. The portal only magnifies the issue and the relative futility of taking 3 stars.
The first players to wash out of the 2022 class that Sark signed weren't the difference makers. It was the three stars.
See David Abiria.