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Ketch's 10 Thoughts From The Weekend (Continuing my crusade!!!!!)

I think you have supported your reasoning about 3 stars well. Hard to argue with the numbers you have shown. I'm sure that coaches don't agree because they think they can "coach them up" and develop them. The portal only magnifies the issue and the relative futility of taking 3 stars.

The first players to wash out of the 2022 class that Sark signed weren't the difference makers. It was the three stars.

See David Abiria.
 
Shockingly bad Zion take from you Ketch, especially coming from an Embiid fan. Dude’s been historically good in the more than twice as many games played through 3 seasons. Not a single NBA team wouldn’t have maxed him. But sure, he’s stealing money lmao.

Embiid never let himself get completely out of shape.
 
Perhaps an alternative theory in the age of no-maximum classes and the hastle-free transfer portal is this: take as many projects as you can. If a few hit, great. The others can be shown the proverbial door and they transfer to Kansas, Nebraska, etc. A numbers game.
I feel you, but there's not enough time and patience to successfully do that... unless there's no more 85-man number.

When Sark needs attrition to happen next year to squeeze 30 guys in, who do you think gets the hook first?
 
A few more B/S...

B/S: Most 4 star O-linemen will leave after two years if they don't expect to start in year 3...

B/S: A 3 star O-linemen at Texas won't transfer due to lack of playing time because they don't expect to see the field anyway.

B/S: There is considerable value in a multi-year scout team O-linemen that know the system.

B/S: 3 star O-linemen know they aren't going to the NFL to make millions. Like most other college athletes, they are here for a free education.

B/S: If Sark runs out of scholarships, he can just make kids walk-ons. A scholarship is worth about $10,000 and a $10,000 NIL deal will cover that.

B/S: The only real limit to the number of players Sark gets, is how much time his coaches have for the players.
a. Mostly buy. That's a hard one to quantify.

b. sell. they all believe in the NFL dream. They are the last ones to know.

c. considerable? sell.

d. sell. they all believe they will make it.

e. sell

f. sell
 
Ketch,

Your breakdown was very informative. However, I think the big flaw in your entire case is you judge everything on whether or not a kid gets drafted.

Not really. I literally went through every position and mentioned all players of note, drafted or not.

You kind of revealed yourself to have not read the sections fully.

We can't pretend that there's more than a couple true exceptions to the rule. There's one Poona Ford.
 
I get your point, but don’t agree with it. Why not just take your chances and take a D’onta Foreman or Sam Cosmi who have been 2 of our better players in the last decade? You can process the guys that don’t pan out and still take guys in the portal.

Not to mention there’s no way the HS coaches in Texas would continually send only their high 4 stars and 5 stars to Texas if we actually deployed this strategy. The program would end up getting black balled by all the HS coaches in state.
Because they hit one out of 10 times.

Guessing the one that hits is impossible.
 
B/S: At least some Texas HS football coaches have received 15% of the value of some NIL contracts to help make sure Texas receives the best players.

(Getting a 4 star to Texas can be very lucrative to the coach. Even a 3 star is worth a dollar or two.)
You misspelled trainers.
 
OB thinks every 3-star has great upside. The overwhelming majority of the time they barely see the field
 
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thanks again for reminding posters of David Ash being underrated and his huge potential upside if concussions hadn't forced him to quit college football. not that i think it would matter long term but Ash if he stayed healthy could have changed Charlie Strong's early tenure at Texas.

Colt McCoy was also underrated due to going to small school Jim Ned and thus his numbers were considered by many to be against weak competition.

Colt and Case are like Payton and Eli Manning. you know who's the better player but the other has a way to win games that sometimes he should lose. until we play aTm again (soon let's hope) Case put one more win on aTm!

well done boy, well done!

Colt was still either the No.1 or No.2 quarterback in the state. The value of such things was not known in 2005.

Feels like cave man years. ;)
 
@Ketchum: "This is going to sound harsh, but I'd make the case that one of the problems Texas football has had in the last 15 years is that too many of those players ended up playing a lot of snaps for the program."

I think this is spot on. The results on the field support it. This is sober column this week and I have wondered about the 3* UT has been recruiting. This column reiterates points made in prior weeks re the portal and how player acquisition strategy is changing.
 
I think another look at the wealthiest graduates list above is in order. Note that a large chunk of the top 20 are schools that are in the Ivy League or of similar bent such as MIT. Harvard and Yale make no pretension about ever competing on a football field with the Power 5. Stanford is good at football, but is clearly unwilling to do what it would take to be elite which would be to take recruits and transfers who are nowhere near the academic caliber of the student body at large. Take them out and there is arguably a lot more correlation between wealth and football success. Alumni wealth allows for better facilities and certainly better NIL deals in this new era.
 
I’m not sure the # of stars is the best way to evaluate potential recruits. Ketch, your data isn’t wrong and your hypothesis is correct. But it really comes down to more than stars, it’s relationships and a lot of individual situations that are evaluated by a staff and coaches. Just my two cents.
It's way more complicated than stars, for sure. Lot of nuance baked inside the discussion.
 
Ketch you really know how to rain on a recruiting party.

That's not even remotely what transpired. This class is on its way to a possible No.1 overall ranking.

This column was about fine-tuning future decision-making to a higher level.

And it was about education and establishing proper expectations.
 
Byron Vaughns was a national top 50 portal player?
he played well against lesser competition at Utah state after riding the pine at Texas …
.. so you’d put that same guy in the portal success category and also the recruiting 3 star failures category?
Huh.

It’ll be interesting to see how many players in that top 50 list get drafted.
Because a lot of them sound like they started but weren’t plus player enough to get drafted. And that’s the top 50… the top 50 out of high school recruits hit at a high rate, right?

It isn’t any easier to land 10 top 50 transfers than 10 top 50 recruits. Probably harder. And the portal guys out below the top 50 are the guys less promising than Byron Vaughns? … woof.

I get the data on the recruiting side, just not sold on the presumption of higher success on the portal side.

Texas hasn’t had much success via transfers by the standard of getting drafted.

transfers have gone undrafted-
Parker braun
Calvin Anderson
Tre Watson
Thornton
Gabriel Watson
Darion Dunn
Ben Davis


I think what you’re proposing in terms of quality numbers from the portals sounds a lot easier to do than it is.

You’re taking long shots on over half of your offers, be it from one pool or the other, no matter how you slice it
 
Ketch,
I know Sark has someone checking out the site, but can you email a copy of this to each coach. recruiting assistant, & CDC, just to make sure they get the point & change their recruiting accordingly. Perhaps a personally addressed letter to each at their home address.

So far, they all seem numb to the needed change in strategy. Even 3 stars likely moving to 4 stars (low 4 stars) seem a questionable use of recruiting effort.

You can't force change and changing behavior.

But, the info is there to learn from.
 
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Not sure I totally agree with your definition of success 🤘🏾
a. You wouldn't be the first.

b. You've been on the site for 15 years and you just made your 5th post on the 4th of July because of this topic? ;)
 
Look, it's been a long drought. We all know we suck until we don't. The hype train is hoping for 8 wins this year.... might be an all time low and that's after a hell of an off season. I'd say we're all full on humble pie. Maybe that's just me.
I don't think we're having the same conversation.

Personally, I'm having a discussion about the optimal way to build a football program.
 
I have been a member for twenty years, and I have to say that I've grown weary of your never-ending crusades.

It's fair to mention it from time-time,

I just mentioned it from time to time. That's literally what happened with a different set of historical data than anyone has ever really produced.

A lot of work on a holiday weekend went into it.

All in the name of providing you info you've never seen before.,
 
The question I have is why does it have to be one or the other? Development or 6.1s and 6.0s?

What have I ever said that would lead you to believe I don't believe both need to happen at the same time, all the time?
 
Ketch,
Taking the gist of your current article & adding to it your previous findings that there is virtually no difference in the results of low 4 star vs. high 3 star, are you stating that if the recruit isn't at least consensus rated as a mid 4 star or higher we should just pass & try to snag from the portal? Or is high 3 star the acceptable limit?

Are there enough Portal options that can make a positive impact for us to get the % of them required to fill in the holes this new recruiting system would create, knowing that we won't get them all?
 
I think the main point @Ketchum is making is that big championship aspiring programs like Texas should take players that have a higher chance of developing into NFL caliber players because those are the players that bring National Championships to your program. 3 stars still have worth but it's better for a program like Texas to let other teams develop them and then poach them in the portal. You're still going to need role players and such as you are correctly pointing out but teams like Texas shouldn't be taking high school freshman to be role players. With the portal and eliminating the 25 scholarship cap, developed role players can be easily found along with studs. The next few years are going to shake up a lot of fans that are holding on too dearly for the way things used to be.

Bingo.

The times are a changing and the info is preparing you for the shift that is coming.

Texas took seven players from the transfer portal and those seven players are more valuable than almost anything Texas will sign in HS recruiting.

More of that in the future is needed. I'm explaining the why part.
 
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Geoff - Big fan of yours and OB. You and your team are my “Go-To” source for UT athletics. I thought I would give you some candid and constructive feedback. You have made your case, with great diligence and research, for the correlation between “Stars” (3 vs. 4 vs. 5) and reaching the NFL. I understand it like I understand gravity. Could teach a class on it. You have made this case so many times that I have quit reading columns like this Sunday column. I hope you receive this message in the positive spirit with which I send it. Enjoy the 4th with your family. Best regards. Evytime
appreciate the feedback.

This is the most read column on the site... every week.

I must be doing something right, no?
 
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