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Ketch's 10 Thoughts From The Weekend (Continuing my crusade!!!!!)

[*]Unless this staff is doing a better job of evaluating and developing talent, we will suck until we don’t
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don't confuse me talking about one side of what needs to take place with believing that the other side doesn't matter or also need to take place.
 
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This whole “star” rankings thing is nearly as old as this site. It’s really not that hard. The overwhelming majority of 3 and 4 stars don’t make it to the NFL. Given that only around 2000 persons make NFL rosters a year, it is not shocking that only about 10% of all college football players ever make it to the League.

Heck, it’s probably less than that.
yeah, but we're not exactly talking about the sport in a vacuum. We're talking about a program that wants to compete at the highest levels possible.
 
But I do believe our program is getting back on track to being nationally relevant again. I’m an old who remembers Street to Paschel in 69 and jumping for joy watching Vince becoming a legend. I just want to see us in the mix before I see the other side. I do believe Ewers is the guy to help make that happen.
I'm with you. I can't wait to see Ewers this fall.
 
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We're trying to catch a rocket by the tail. This is a shifting world and it's hard to pin down the exact correct percentages at the very beginning of the evolution.

I think something like 65-35 in favor of HS prospects is probably the future for most schools.
Seems reasonable. This is developing at light speed in College Football Time.
 
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Ketch,
Thanks for the analysis, the article, & the answers. It sounds like Texas needs to add a few more support staff for portal recruiting, along the lines of Oakland's Moneyball approach.
Yes, this is the moneyball approach to college football.

A high-level GM with pro experience (and dealing with agents) would be invaluable IMO.
 
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Seems reasonable. This is developing at light speed in College Football Time.
I don't think people really have an understanding for what happens next with the Portal after the first full year of NIL.

I believed that this year would have a lot more talent than last year, and I was proven correct.

I think it takes off to an even higher level in 2023 and Texas simply needs to make sure it has ample room to take advantage of it.
 
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Yes, this is the moneyball approach to college football.

A high-level GM with pro experience (and dealing with agents) would be invaluable IMO.
You've been saying that almost from the very beginning (long before—was it Miami?—some Florida school essentially did just that). It sounds like a great idea.
 
I think it’s entirely possible that we start seeing five star recruits whom have a great freshman year enter the portal to maximize their value on the Portal - two years of eligibility left and get a big NIL deal
 
It seems that limiting your analysis to players who have completed their eligibility can ignore the best players - VY, Jamaal Charles, etc.
8 years from now it won’t bother me at all if we still have very few offensive players drafted that also completed their eligibility. Especially if during that time Bijan goes first round, Ewers goes number 1, Manning goes number 1, and a bunch of lineman leave early to go in the first round after we win a couple of national titles. You still have lousy numbers of draftees who have completed their elegibility - but great numbers for those that leave early.
Apologies if someone has already mentioned this.
 
Ketch, I hope you won't be offended but Let me see if I understand you correctly? A kid that everyone wants picks Texas. His commitment keeps Texas momentum rolling and makes Texas continue to be seen in a favorable way among recruits.

HIs commitment also infuriates the aggies and frustrates a large number of other colleges many of them with elite programs that felt they had a good shot at him and are genuinely disappointed that he signed with someone other than them.

The kid in question here is a monster and he is only 16. Let me say that again he is only 16. The day of his commitment you in essence killed it by saying really Texas Should Not Have Taken Him.. And to justify this you used a lot of mickey mouse statistics that really don't come close to telling the whole story.

Now lets go to education for a minute. I like you and I enjoy OrangeBloods. But who have you ever developed in your life? Answer, No One. Not One player. Not even in Pee Wee Ball. Tell me what or how you categorize training days and what are the loading parameters with each type of training day ?

How many kids have you placed in Collegiate programs. ? 0. And Ketch whether you understand or admit it you have been wrong quite a bit over the last several years.

These are the schools that wanted Sydir - A 16-year-old that can be a beast by the time he is 19.

Arizona State
Arkansas
Auburn
Boston College
Florida State
Georgia
Illinois
Kentucky
Maryland UMass
Michigan
Mississippi
Penn State
Rutgers
Syracuse
Temple
Tennessee
little a&m
USC
Virginia
Virginia Tech
Wisconsin
Ohio State

And I realize every one of those schools' coaches and ADs are reading your article and saying. He guys don't sweat it that ketch guy at OB"s said we were better off without him, and Texas made a huge mistake. Man those guys just keep getting it wrong. Bullet dodged and we'll get one tomorrow. Thank God he went to Texas and not us.

Not saying this is you but Much of the media today is predicated on embellished or often fake/ manufactured news supported by a lot of meaningless false though nice sounding language. That kid was a take and fortunately Bo has an opportunity to help Sydir become a guy that no team looks forward to lining up against.

And Ketch my kid was voted player of the week at Newk's this week in his first week there. I don't think I know everything Ketch, but I have put 35+ years and over 68,000 hours on court building players in my life, maybe just maybe you still have a lot to learn yourself.

Ketch, you have done a very nice job with OB's and we all like and appreciate not only the site but the time and effort you and all the guys put into it. And hopefully periodically me and you or you and some of the other guys can have spirited passionate debates where we may not see eye to eye and agree to disagree. And ultimately don't get hung up on minor disagreements while we stand together wanting to see Texas become what Texas is capable of being.
I'm not sure why you think the conversation taking place has much to do with Sydir Mitchell, a player that I believe is a national top 150-250 type of talent.
 
You've been saying that almost from the very beginning (long before—was it Miami?—some Florida school essentially did just that). It sounds like a great idea.
It will eventually become the norm, but it still sounds pretty radical to most people... and I get that.

Yes, Highsmith is a perfect example of what I've described.

 
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I think it’s entirely possible that we start seeing five star recruits whom have a great freshman year enter the portal to maximize their value on the Portal - two years of eligibility left and get a big NIL deal
yup
 
I'll trust data/facts over human confirmation bias.

🤷‍♂️🤷‍♂️🤷‍♂️

There is a lot to this.
I do get that the world is different w the portal.
And we are all in a transition period now.
It is difficult to judge this idea of “does this particular coaching staff know better than the Rivals or composite ratings?”. This staff does have a good track record. There are good 3s maybe this staff can find the ones that will end up as 4s, or succeed as 3s. But I agree we should not be arrogant about that.
Sometimes there are special reasons to take a 3-4 of course.
We did not and will not get every transfer we want. We would have taken at least 10 last year I think if we could have gotten the right ones.
Will the portal slow down some if the “once only” rule sticks? I have not thought much about it, but it is not clear yet how many players we can typically count on from transfers each year.
I am not crazy about the idea but we’re probably going to have more UT scholarship players leaving and being invited to leave in the future.
If the 85 rule stays we do need to be smart about managing the 85.
Thanks for doing this.
 
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It seems that limiting your analysis to players who have completed their eligibility can ignore the best players - VY, Jamaal Charles, etc.
8 years from now it won’t bother me at all if we still have very few offensive players drafted that also completed their eligibility. Especially if during that time Bijan goes first round, Ewers goes number 1, Manning goes number 1, and a bunch of lineman leave early to go in the first round after we win a couple of national titles. You still have lousy numbers of draftees who have completed their elegibility - but great numbers for those that leave early.
Apologies if someone has already mentioned this.
Completing their eligibility is just another way of saying... done with college football and not able to change the numbers based on transferring to another school.

It's not leaving players out that leave school early.

Welcome to the site.
 
There is a lot to this.
I do get that the world is different w the portal.
And we are all in a transition period now.
It is difficult to judge this idea of “does this particular coaching staff know better than the Rivals or composite ratings?”. This staff does have a good track record. There are good 3s maybe this staff can find the ones that will end up as 4s, or succeed as 3s. But I agree we should not be arrogant about that.
Sometimes there are special reasons to take a 3-4 of course.
We did not and will not get every transfer we want. We would have taken at least 10 last year I think if we could have gotten the right ones.
Will the portal slow down some if the “once only” rule sticks? I have not thought much about it, but it is not clear yet how many players we can typically count on from transfers each year.
I am not crazy about the idea but we’re probably going to have more UT scholarship players leaving and being invited to leave in the future.
If the 85 rule stays we do need to be smart about managing the 85.
Thanks for doing this.
Good post.

A few thoughts...

a. I'm trying less to subjectively depend on another human's own bias' and more trying to eliminate as much subjectiveness as possible.

b. There are always good three stars. It's just a 1 in 10 shot to be right on your guess, which is impacted by the bias that is built when you put a ton of sweat equity into it.

c. At the end of the day, I'm talking to you about the future of the sport and not something you can completely see, just as a year ago I was telling you players exactly like the ones Texas has added would start to become more readily available.

I feel like a strong case can be made that taking 15 portal kids this year instead of 7 would have made more immediate improvement for a program that went 5-7 last year.

I mean... where would the 2022 Longhorns be without the Portal?
 
I know some of you hate the discussion, but this is good conversation in real time about something that is changing in real time.

It's an evolved conversation and that's a step towards where everyone needs to have their heads.
 
I'm not sure why you think the conversation taking place has much to do with Sydir Mitchell, a player that I believe is a national top 150-250 type of talent.
It seemed, at least in part, that your comments and these are just a few that set your last article in motion were in direct response to Texas taking Sydir. I believe you said the following.

None of this is personal.

I just don't think a program with significant aspirations as a major college football program should be making significant investments in them in the age of the college football portal.

Of course, it's not an opinion that most college football coaches would likely agree with and that includes the entire Texas Longhorns coaching staff. Yet, I'm not going to back down from this particular hot take, which feels like less of a hot take and more like common sense from my perspective. In the coming paragraphs, I'm going to try and pull you to my way of thinking.

Before I hit you over the head with math, I'm going to begin with a little common sense. Two of the biggest issues facing the three-star prospect at a program like Texas are time and patience. Neither the prospect nor the program typically have enough of either.

It just seemed that your take was bad timing, and perhaps that was not your intention at all, in relation to Sydir choosing Texas. The kid commits and in short order you put out your take. There seemed to be an association.
 
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It seemed, at least in part, that your comments and these are just a few that set your last article in motion were in direct response to Texas taking Sydir. I believe you said the following.

None of this is personal.

I just don't think a program with significant aspirations as a major college football program should be making significant investments in them in the age of the college football portal.

Of course, it's not an opinion that most college football coaches would likely agree with and that includes the entire Texas Longhorns coaching staff. Yet, I'm not going to back down from this particular hot take, which feels like less of a hot take and more like common sense from my perspective. In the coming paragraphs, I'm going to try and pull you to my way of thinking.

Before I hit you over the head with math, I'm going to begin with a little common sense. Two of the biggest issues facing the three-star prospect at a program like Texas are time and patience. Neither the prospect nor the program typically have enough of either.

It just seemed that your take was bad timing, and perhaps that was not your intention at all, in relation to Sydir choosing Texas. The kid commits and in short order you put out your take. There seemed to be an association.
This is my direct response to taking Mitchell. I actually didn't talk about Mitchell in this article because I had already published a piece specific to him a few hours earlier.


Nothing personal, but it's wildly inaccurate to suggest this has anything to do with Mitchell for various reasons, the least of which isn't that I literally listed his position as one you'd make exceptions for in a world where you are taking fewer lower rated prospects.

"The only exceptions that should be made are the following:

a. An occasional quarterback from the state of Texas. We'll call it the Colt McCoy rule.
b. An occasional BIG defensive lineman. No tweeners. They all need to be either a defensive tackle or a defensive end that is at least 6-4, 240 pounds.
c. Raw two-way athletes that can play on either side of the ball.
d. Kickers or Punters."
 
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Highsmith's duties seem a bit broad, but maybe that relieves a lot of pressure from the coach allowing him more focus. I would want our guy's duties to be a bit more focused on recruiting analysis & development tracking. In addition to that GM, we really need a football/math/computer geek to set all this up.

Assuming you're not, is Alex available? ;-)
 
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OK.

I suspect NIL contracts of the size Addison received are difficult to put together though.

Any idea what the specific problem is? Even if the money is there, getting it to the kid can be tricky.

Two separate NIL companies wanting him to do something on the same day? (stupid problem). Concerns with funneling money to a company that can do an NIL deal? Something really silly?

Or did they really run out of funds? (won't be a problem in Texas... A lot of Texas NIL money is probably coming from oil so everyone is flush with more cash than they know what to do with. Not expanding oil operations... stocks and real estate are way too high....)

a. The amount reported by Cowherd and a few others was simply not accurate. Less than a million.

b. They don't have their shit together yet.
 
appreciate the feedback.

This is the most read column on the site... every week.

I must be doing something right, no?
I love this column. I read it every week. Maybe, you missed my point about redundancy? You do not use this same topic every week.
 
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a. The amount reported by Cowherd and a few others was simply not accurate. Less than a million.

b. They don't have their shit together yet.

Texas following through on their commitments will be huge in gaining new ones through th e portal

Imagine the crop next year and having 15 players to add - would be huge for the team with really any outcome this year / bad - ok - good - great - The level talent we could add would be better from a better year / but in any of the scenarios it would be huge
 
I love this column. I read it every week. Maybe, you missed my point about redundancy? You do not use this same topic every week.
I typically change the topic every week.

I've been thinking of writing this piece for about 2 months, so I'm pretty sure the redundancy is minimal, other than me talking about in conversation on the board.
 
Texas following through on their commitments will be huge in gaining new ones through th e portal

Imagine the crop next year and having 15 players to add - would be huge for the team with really any outcome this year / bad - ok - good - great - The level talent we could add would be better from a better year / but in any of the scenarios it would be huge
Bingo. Gotta come though, though.
 
What have I ever said that would lead you to believe I don't believe both need to happen at the same time, all the time?
You haven’t but you have spent several years analyzing 6.1s and 6.0s vs 3 stars including this OP. I have not seen an in depth analysis on how the programs do develop 3 stars better than Texas.

In addition my question is why can’t OUR PROGRAM DO BOTH? I was not asking you why both is impossible because I don’t think it is. Not every post is an attack on you…promise.
 
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Excuse me if this has been mentioned but it would be interesting to correlate the three star’s offer lists against which ones succeeded. If several top programs want them, maybe they see something the recruiting services missed.
 
It's been a thought that has crossed my mind quite a bit lately.

Would certainly mean that what sark is doing on his takes at the moment would actually be spot on - if he had confidence in it coming true of course

Then the undersized DE / the Louisiana TE and the low percentage but large bodied high upside OL takes would all be perfect in both your and my book - some to help land bigger fish / some that have the right profile to really hit when they do
 
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